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Consumer confidence Overview Asia 3 4
China
Indonesia Malaysia Singapore Thailand Vietnam Research specifications InsightAsia contact information
8
13 18 23 28 33 38 39
Consumer Confidence
In most developed economies, consumer confidence index is an important indicator used by governments for policy development, by corporations in strategic planning and by financial institutions in market analysis and forecasting. Economic growth and decline are clearly influenced by the changes in consumer confidence. In times of economic downturn, consumers often become pessimistic and spend less, thus worsening the recession. In the same way, consumers boost economic growth when they are optimistic about the economic prospects. For several years, the fast growing economies of Southeast Asia and China have been in need of a comprehensive and comparative measurement of consumer confidence. To address this need, InsightAsia presents The Asian Consumer Confidence Index. Published quarterly, it is designed to assist policy makers in assessing the economic and social impact of policy decisions, and for senior executives in performance tracking, market planning and benchmarking. Given the importance of consumer confidence in economic growth, we believe this is a key benchmarking tool for decision makers. In this issue, InsightAsia presents The Asian Consumer Confidence Index of Quarter 2 2011. The quarterly reports can be downloaded from www.insightasia.com.
Overview Asia
Consumer confidence around the region has not changed much in Quarter 2 as economic growth is stable. Consumers in Singapore are still the most upbeat of the region, followed by consumers in China and Vietnam, who are mildly positive about economic circumstances. Malaysian consumers remain neutral and Indonesia also approaches the neutral level after a 7 point increase. Thai consumers remain pessimistic as political instability continued before the general election. All economies in the survey have overcome the global recession and demonstrated strong GDP growth in 2010. Though forecasts for the region are optimistic, challenges exist that threaten growth. Exports growth to Western economies is slowing down, due to various problems in the economies of the US and the euro zone. In domestic markets inflation is accelerating and rising prices of food and energy become a burden to consumers. Foreign exchange volatility and weak recovery in Japan are additional uncertainties. Monetary policy makers face important decisions to keep the region on the path to greater prosperity.
200
111
100
122
97 103
107 72
0
China Indonesia Malaysia Singapore Thailand Vietnam
50
1
0
1 -2
-50
China Indonesia Malaysia Singapore Thailand Vietnam
Current Economy
Do you think that the present state of the economy is better or worse than it was a year ago? Q2 2011
Future economy
Do you think that during the next 12 months the economy will be better or worse off, or just about the same as now? Q2 2011
200
200
120
131 96
99
100
131 95
116
100
74
48
0
China Indonesia Malaysia Singapore Thailand Vietnam
0
China Indonesia Malaysia Singapore Thailand Vietnam
Q2 minus Q1 2011
Q2 minus Q1 2011
50
50
19 8
0 0
10 -2
16
-8
-8
-5
-15
-6
-5
-2
-50
China Indonesia Malaysia Singapore Thailand Vietnam
-50
China Indonesia Malaysia Singapore Thailand Vietnam
200
200
149
131
100
88
97
111 82
111
100
115
117
130 97
121
0
China Indonesia Malaysia Singapore Thailand Vietnam
0
China Indonesia Malaysia Singapore Thailand Vietnam
Q2 minus Q1 2011
Q2 minus Q1 2011
50
50
8
0
1 -2 -7
9
0
5 -6 -3
12
-50
China Indonesia Malaysia Singapore Thailand Vietnam
-50
China Indonesia Malaysia Singapore Thailand Vietnam
Retail expenditure
Overall, how satisfied are you with the current status of your financial well-being? Q2 2011
200
96
100
75
88
39
89
44
0
China Indonesia Malaysia Singapore Thailand Vietnam
Q2 minus Q1 2011
50
18 8
0
12 1 -6
-50
China Indonesia Malaysia Singapore Thailand Vietnam
China
China
Minimum
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2009
2010
2011
Q2 minus Q1 2011
200
115 88
100
120 96
138
0
Current status of financial well-being Outlook of Time to buy Current financial major economy well-being household compared items to last year Economy next 12 months compared to now
China
Current Economy
Do you think that the present state of the economy is better or worse than it was a year ago? Q2 2011
200
Maximum
Future Economy
Do you think that during the next 12 months the economy will be better or worse off, or just about the same as now? Q2 2011
200
Maximum
136 114
100
Neutral
152
99
120
100
136
Neutral
114
Minimum
0 Q3 Q4 Q1 2010 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2011 Q2
Minimum
Q2 2009
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2009
2010
2011
Q2 minus Q1 2011
Q2 minus Q1 2011
50% 40%
40% 27%
50%
43%
40%
30%
30%
20% 10% 0%
Dont Know Much Worse Somewhat Worse Neutral Somewhat Better Much Better
23% 15% 8%
14% 4%
6%
20%
8%
10% 0%
6%
5%
Dont Know
Much Worse
Somewhat Worse
Neutral
Somewhat Better
Much Better
10
China
Current Financial Well-being
Overall, how satisfied are you with the current status of your financial well-being? Q2 2011
200
Maximum
121107
100
Neutral
131124 97
94 88
90 90
80
88
100
Neutral
Minimum
Minimum
Q2 2009
Q3
Q4
Q1 2010
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 2011
Q2
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2009
2010
2011
Q2 minus Q1 2011
Q2 minus Q1 2011
47%
50% 50%
42%
32%
40%
30%
40%
30%
17%
20%
10%
18% 13% 5%
20%
9%
8%
9%
10%
0%
0%
Very Somewhat Dissatisfied Dissatisfied Neutral Somewhat Satisfied Very Satisfied
Very Pessimistic
Somewhat Pessimistic
Neutral
Somewhat Optimistic
Very Optimistic
11
China
Retail expenditure
Overall, how satisfied are you with the current status of your financial well-being? Q2 2011
200
Maximum
112108
100
Neutral
104 100 95
98 92
88
96
Minimum
Q2 2009
Q3
Q4
Q1 2010
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 2011
Q2
Q2 minus Q1 2011
58%
60%
9%
13%
15% 5%
12
Indonesia
13
Indonesia
100
Neutral
83
97 105 89 94
93 100 97 90 97
Minimum
Q1
2009
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2010
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2011
Q2
Q2 minus Q1 2011
200
149 97
118 74
100
44
Outlook of Time to buy Current financial major economy well-being household compared items to last year
14
Indonesia
Current Economy
Do you think that the present state of the economy is better or worse than it was a year ago? Q2 2011
200
Maximum
Future Economy
Do you think that during the next 12 months the economy will be better or worse off, or just about the same as now? Q2 2011
200
Maximum
142 128
100
Neutral
103 94
74
72 67
77 79
72
74 55
100
Neutral
108
Minimum
Minimum
Q1
2009
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2010
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2011
Q2
Q1 2009
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 2010
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 2011
Q2
Q2 minus Q1 2011
Q2 minus Q1 2011
47%
50%
50%
38%
40% 30% 40%
20%
23% 15%
30% 20%
24% 9%
4%
20%
10% 0%
Dont Know Much Worse Somewhat Worse Neutral
1%
Somewhat Better
4%
Much Better
10% 0%
Dont Know
6%
9%
Much Worse
Somewhat Worse
Neutral
Somewhat Better
Much Better
15
Indonesia
Current Financial Well-being
Overall, how satisfied are you with the current status of your financial well-being? Q2 2011
200
Maximum
154
89 96 94 106 105 104 97
125 126
100
Neutral
100
Neutral
71 78
89
Minimum
0
Q3 Q4 Q1 2010 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2011 Q2
Minimum
Q1 2009
Q2
Q1 2009
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 2010
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 2011
Q2
Q2 minus Q1 2011
Q2 minus Q1 2011
50%
60%
55%
40%
30%
28%
31%
31%
22%
14%
20%
7%
10%
20%
3%
8% 1%
Very Pessimistic Somewhat Pessimistic Neutral Somewhat Optimistic Very Optimistic
10% 0%
0%
Very Somewhat Dissatisfied Dissatisfied Neutral Somewhat Satisfied Very Satisfied
16
Indonesia
Retail expenditure
Overall, how satisfied are you with the current status of your financial well-being? Q2 2011
200
Maximum
100
Neutral
40
0
52 45
43 39
39 42
43 37 44
Minimum
Q1 2009
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 2010
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 2011
Q2
Q2 minus Q1 2011
57%
60% 50% 40% 30% 20%
18%
17%
9% 0%
10% 0%
Very Bad Time Somewhat Bad Time Neutral Somewhat Good Time
17
Malaysia
Overview Malaysia
Malaysia is an open, export driven economy and therefore suffered heavily from the global recession. The Malaysian economy was growing strongly before the global recession set in and GDP growth dropped to minus 1.7% in 2009. The economy bounced back in 2010 and achieved 7.2% growth. The forecast for 2011 by the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research is 5.2% growth. Though this forecast has not been adjusted yet, growth has come under pressure in the second quarter. While private consumption keeps increasing, growth of exports is diminishing. As the Malaysian economy remains strongly dependent on global economic developments, the ongoing struggle of Western economies puts Malaysian growth at risk. Rising inflation adds to the uncertainties that are currently facing the Malaysian economy.
18
Malaysia
100
Neutral
83
94 96
102 103
Minimum
Q1 2009
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 2010
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 2011
Q2
Q2 minus Q1 2011
200
111
100
117
75
96
115
Outlook of Time to buy Current financial major economy well-being household compared items to last year
19
Malaysia
Current Economy
Do you think that the present state of the economy is better or worse than it was a year ago? Q2 2011
200
Maximum
Future Economy
Do you think that during the next 12 months the economy will be better or worse off, or just about the same as now? Q2 2011
200
Maximum
71
45
0
Minimum
80
104 96
110
100
Neutral
128130
142144
130123
0 Q3 Q4 Q1 2010 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2011 Q2
Minimum
Q1 2009
Q2
Q1
2009
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2010
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2011
Q2
Q2 minus Q1 2011
Q2 minus Q1 2011
50%
40% 30% 20%
50%
40%
36%
29%
20% 14% 24%
30%
20%
24%
9% 12% 12%
10% 0%
5%
9%
10%
7%
0%
Dont Know Much Worse Somewhat Worse Neutral Somewhat Better Much Better
Dont Know
Much Worse
Somewhat Worse
Neutral
Somewhat Better
Much Better
20
Malaysia
Current Financial Well-being
Overall, how satisfied are you with the current status of your financial well-being? Q2 2011
200
Maximum
98 93
110 111
100
113 112117
Neutral
Minimum
0 Q3 Q4 Q1 2010 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2011 Q2
Minimum
Q1 2009
Q2
Q1 2009
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 2010
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 2011
Q2
Q2 minus Q1 2011
Q2 minus Q1 2011
47%
50% 40% 30% 50%
34% 20% 6%
32%
40%
30%
33%
20%
10%
9%
20%
10%
11% 4% 5%
0%
Very Somewhat Dissatisfied Dissatisfied Neutral Somewhat Satisfied Very Satisfied
0%
Very Pessimistic Somewhat Pessimistic Neutral Somewhat Optimistic Very Optimistic
21
Malaysia
Retail expenditure
Overall, how satisfied are you with the current status of your financial well-being? Q2 2011
200
Maximum
100
Neutral
51
63 61
58
74
74 78
66
75
57
Minimum
Q1 2009
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 2010
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 2011
Q2
Q2 minus Q1 2011
50% 40%
35%
36%
30%
20% 10%
12%
14%
4%
0%
Very Bad Time Somewhat Bad Time Neutral Somewhat Good Time Very Good Time
22
Singapore
Overview Singapore
Singapore has a developed economy and has one of the highest GDP per capita in the world. Export is the main source of revenue, making it highly dependent on world trade. The Port of Singapore is the busiest in the world. Singapore was affected strongly by the global recession, but bounced back remarkably and has shown high growth figures since, resulting in 14.7% growth in 2010. This level of growth is impossible to sustain and growth was projected to decelerate to between 4 and 6% in 2011. Strong year-on-year growth of 9.3% in the first quarter was followed by 0.5% growth in the second quarter. The quarter 2 growth is measured against a high base, as the Singaporean economy achieved a peak in Quarter 2 of 2010. This base effect accounts for a large portion of the deceleration and analysts do not panic over the recent numbers, as they expect growth to pick up again in the second half of the year. However, ongoing problems in Western economies can affect Singapores growth negatively and make growth in the rest of the year uncertain.
23
Singapore
110
100
Neutral
88
62
Minimum
Q1 2009
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 2010
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 2011
Q2
Q2 minus Q1 2011
200
131
100
130
88
131
131
0 Current status of financial well-being Outlook of Time to buy Current financial major economy well-being household compared items to last year Economy next 12 months compared to now
24
Singapore
Current Economy
Do you think that the present state of the economy is better or worse than it was a year ago? Q2 2011
200
Maximum
Future Economy
Do you think that during the next 12 months the economy will be better or worse off, or just about the same as now? Q2 2011
200
Maximum
150
140
154
119
100
Neutral
140 146
131
100
129
121
131
100
70
74
14
0
Minimum
Minimum
Q1
2009
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2010
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2011
Q2
Q1 2009
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 2010
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 2011
Q2
Q2 minus Q1 2011
Q2 minus Q1 2011
50% 40%
30% 20%
42%
32%
50%
43% 35%
40%
30%
12% 3% 2%
Much Worse Somewhat Worse Neutral Somewhat Better
20%
10%
10% 0%
8%
2%
Dont Know Much Worse
10%
0%
5%
6%
Dont Know
Much Better
Somewhat Worse
Neutral
Somewhat Better
Much Better
25
Singapore
Current Financial Well-being
Overall, how satisfied are you with the current status of your financial well-being? Q2 2011
200
Maximum
100
117
100
Neutral
83
98
Minimum
Minimum
Q1
2009
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2010
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2011
Q2
Q1 2009
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 2010
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 2011
Q2
Q2 minus Q1 2011
Q2 minus Q1 2011
50%
44%
50% 40%
41%
39%
40%
30% 20%
30%
20%
10%
0%
4%
8%
10% 0%
10%
3%
Neutral
Somewhat Satisfied
Very Satisfied
Very Pessimistic
Somewhat Pessimistic
Neutral
Somewhat Optimistic
Very Optimistic
26
Singapore
Retail expenditure
Overall, how satisfied are you with the current status of your financial well-being? Q2 2011
200
Maximum
100
Neutral
104112
69
48
Minimum
84
92 98
96
87 88
Q1
2009
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2010
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2011
Q2
Q2 minus Q1 2011
41%
26% 9% 2%
Very bad time Somewhat bad time Neither good time nor bad time Somewhat good time Very good time
22%
20%
10% 0%
27
Thailand
Overview Thailand
The Thai economy contracted by 2.3% in 2009, following the global recession. Driven by economic growth in the region GDP growth recovered at 7.8% in 2010 and currently Thailand is on course to achieve the initial forecast of 4.1% for 2011 by the Bank of Thailand. Growth numbers suggest that the Thai economy is stable and there is no reason for concern. However, political instability has been an uncertain factor for some years and continues to be so despite the recent landslide general election victory of the Pheu Thai party. A possible attempt to bring back convicted ex-prime minister Thaksin to Thailand would severely add to political tensions. Pheu Thai faces strong pressure to implement its campaign promises, which include an increase of minimum wage, a minimum wage for new graduates and minimum rice prices. Economic analysts fear that these populist policies will strongly spur on inflation and will hurt exports, an important sector for the country. Though the Thai economy has been on a steady growth path since the recession, the immediate future of the country and its economic prospects are uncertain due to the political unrest. 28
Thailand
100
Neutral
72 78
88
87 93 83 92
91
69 72
Minimum
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2009
2010
2011
Q2 minus Q1 2011
200
82
100
97
95
39
0
Current status of financial well-being
48
Outlook of Time to buy Current financial major economy well-being household compared items to last year
29
Thailand
Current Economy
Do you think that the present state of the economy is better or worse than it was a year ago? Q2 2011
200
Maximum
Future Economy
Do you think that during the next 12 months the economy will be better or worse off, or just about the same as now? Q2 2011
200
Maximum
100
Neutral
49 48
Minimum
67
61
80
86
61
74
53 48
100
Neutral
88
98
110
94 100 102
109 102
79
95
0 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Minimum
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2009
2010
2011
2009
2010
2011
Q2 minus Q1 2011
Q2 minus Q1 2011
50% 40%
30%
43%
50% 40%
26% 21%
30%
26% 17%
28%
20%
8%
20%
10% 0%
Dont Know Much Worse Somewhat Worse Neutral Somewhat Better Much Better
20%
4%
7%
0%
10%
0%
Dont Know Much Worse Somewhat Worse Neutral Somewhat Better Much Better
0%
30
Thailand
Current Financial Well-being
Overall, how satisfied are you with the current status of your financial well-being? Q2 2011
200
Maximum
100
Neutral 92
102100 105104 96 97
106 79 82
100
Neutral
88
97
Minimum
Minimum
Q1
2009
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2010
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2011
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2009
2010
2011
Q2 minus Q1 2011
Q2 minus Q1 2011
50%
40% 30% 20%
40% 27%
50%
40%
44%
23% 9%
30% 20%
25%
26%
10%
0%
2%
Very Somewhat Dissatisfied Dissatisfied Neutral Somewhat Satisfied Very Satisfied
10% 0%
4%
1%
Somewhat Pessimistic Neutral Somewhat Optimistic Very Optimistic
Very Pessimistic
31
Thailand
Retail expenditure
Overall, how satisfied are you with the current status of your financial well-being? Q2 2011
200
Maximum
100
Neutral
29 32
0
Minimum
44
57 63 53 56
54
45 39
Q1 2009
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 2010
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 2011
Q2
Q2 minus Q1 2011
50% 40%
44%
28%
30% 20%
21%
7%
10% 0% Very Bad Time Somewhat Bad Time Neutral Somewhat Good Time Very Good Time
0%
32
Vietnam
Overview Vietnam
Vietnam suffered less impact from the global recession than many other countries in the region. After growing more than 8% in 2006 and 2007, economic growth slowed down in the following two years. However, with growth figures of 6.2% in 2008 and 5.3% in 2009 the economy kept expanding strongly. Vietnam achieved 5.6% growth in the first half of 2011, demonstrating steady progress. However, economic growth had severe negative side effects and Vietnam faces huge challenges. The government has not been able to control inflation, which is among the highest in the world and climbed towards 20% in the second quarter. The rising cost of living leads to social unrest and trade and budget deficits and foreign debts add to the challenges of the countrys leading party.
33
Vietnam
122
100
Neutral
132
128 127
124 102
107
The outlook on the economy has changed dramatically. In 2010 there was consensus among consumers that the economy was improving and would continue to do so in 2011. However this positive outlook disappeared in the first two quarters of 2011. Consumers no longer feel the economy is improving and are much less optimistic about the future.
In 2011 Vietnamese consumers also became less satisfied with current financial well-being and less optimistic about its future. However, the attitude towards major purchases did not change for the worse and remains just below the neutral level.
Minimum
Q4 2009
Q1 2010
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 2011
Q2
Q2 minus Q1 2011
200
111
100
121
89
99
116
Outlook of Time to buy Current financial major economy well-being household compared items to last year
34
Vietnam
Current Economy
Do you think that the present state of the economy is better or worse than it was a year ago? Q2 2011
200
Maximum
Future Economy
Do you think that during the next 12 months the economy will be better or worse off, or just about the same as now? Q2 2011
200
Maximum
150
Neutral
157
150 145
146 105 99
100
148
Neutral
150
147 150
151
118
116
100
Minimum
Minimum
Q4 2009
Q1 2010
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 2011
Q2
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2009
2010
2011
Q2 minus Q1 2011
Q2 minus Q1 2011
49%
50%
40%
30% 20% 10%
36%
40%
50%
40%
27%
30%
16%
5% 0%
Dont Know Much Worse Somewhat Worse Neutral Somewhat Better
20% 4%
20%
3%
Much Better
10% 0%
1%
Dont Know
1%
Neutral Somewhat Better Much Better
0%
Much Worse
Somewhat Worse
35
Vietnam
Current Financial Well-being
Overall, how satisfied are you with the current status of your financial well-being? Q2 2011
200
Maximum
124
100
Neutral
132
135 111
100
Neutral
142
128 130
112
109
121
Minimum
0 Q1 2010 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2011 Q2
Minimum
Q4 2009
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2009
2010
2011
Q2 minus Q1 2011
Q2 minus Q1 2011
50%
44%
50% 40%
44%
39%
40%
30% 20%
26%
23%
30% 20%
15% 1%
Very Pessimistic Somewhat Pessimistic Neutral Somewhat Optimistic
10%
0%
4%
3%
10% 0%
2%
Very Optimistic
Neutral
Somewhat Satisfied
Very Satisfied
36
Vietnam
Retail expenditure
Overall, how satisfied are you with the current status of your financial well-being? Q2 2011
200
Maximum
100
Neutral
101
80 55
79
80
77
89
Minimum
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2009
2010
2011
Q2 minus Q1 2011
50%
42% 27%
40%
28%
30% 20%
10%
0%
3%
Very Bad Time Somewhat Bad Time Neutral Somewhat Good Time
2%
Very Good Time
37
Research Specifications
The survey is representative of 18+ in the urban areas on these characteristics: Gender Age Income The data was collected from 1-14 June 2011. China Sample size: 500 Locations: Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou Method: telephone interviews, random sampling Singapore Sample size: 300 Locations: Singapore Method: face-to-face interviews, random door-todoor Thailand Sample size: 500 Locations: Bangkok, Chiang Mai, Khon Kaen, Hat Yai Method: face-to-face interviews, random door-to door Vietnam Sample size: 400 Locations: Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi Method: face-to-face interviews, sampling door-to door 38
Indonesia Sample size: 500 Locations: Jakarta, Surabaya, Medan Method: face-to face, random door-to-door
Malaysia Sample size: 500 Locations: Klang Valley, Penang, Johor Bahru Method: telephone interviews, random sampling
39