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Who paid 16% Sellers Stamp Duty?
During bad times, selling at a loss might be the best way out before it gets worse. Indeed, some investors are doing just that. Recall that the Sellers Stamp Duty (SSD) of around 3% was first imposed in February 2010. It was revised once in August 2010 and again in January 2011, where it was ramped up to 16% for residential properties sold within a year. Overall residential property prices rose less than 6% in the past year so any transaction hit by a 16% SSD is likely to have sold at a loss. We analysed caveat data by the Urban Redevelopment Authority and reveal exactly how many people paid the full 16% SSD. Based on caveat data, 14 apartments were sold within a year of purchase after the 16% SSD took effect. Reflections at Keppel Bay had the most cases, followed by Hillview Regency. Interestingly, there was a case in Hillview Regency where the owner made a 42.4% gain in just over 3 months, more than offset the 16% SSD. In all other cases, the owners sold at losses, after factoring in 19% stamp duty (3% buyers and 16% sellers) and 2% agents commission. Such transactions are worrying and reflect current investor confidence in the property market but the level of such activities is still low, averaging about 1 transaction a month since the16% SSD took effect. The latest round of cooling moves in December 2011 could be a catalyst for more such sales, especially as the SSD steps down to 12% in the second year versus markets expectation that prices may drop 15-20%. We think bigger projects are likely to see more such cases, as competition heats up among neighbours to unload their units, and possibly undercutting each other. In the next page, we look at a handful of other projects, highlighting unprofitable transactions post-January 2011s curbs.
Residential properties sold within a year of purchase after 13 January 2011 Total Date of Project Tenure units purchase Purchase price $m $psf Bullion Park Unit A Dorsett Residences Unit A Hillview Regency Unit A Unit B Kovan Residences Unit A Moonstone Residences Unit A Owen Road Unit A Oasis @ Elias Unit A Palm Mansions Unit A Prestige Heights Unit A Reflections at Keppel Bay Unit A Unit B Unit C The Petals Unit A Freehold 99-yr from 09 99-yr from 00 473 Sep-11 68 Apr-11 572 Mar-11 Apr-11 99-yr from 07 Freehold 99-yr from 59 99-yr from 08 Freehold Freehold 99-yr from 06 521 Apr-11 76 Apr-11 Apr-11 388 Apr-11 30 Jun-11 154 Apr-11 1,129 Sep-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Freehold 270 May-11 1,145,000 909 Oct-11 1,160,000 921 1% 1,827,099 1,352,901 8,500,000 1,516 1,514 2,668 Dec-11 Dec-11 Nov-11 1,916,530 1,460,870 7,500,000 1,590 1,635 2,354 5% 8% -12% 499,500 1,497 Nov-11 515,000 1,543 3% 1,090,000 823 Jun-11 1,120,000 846 3% 745,000 761 Apr-11 770,000 786 3% 518,000 152 Jul-11 525,000 154 1% 1,150,000 929 Dec-11 1,118,000 903 -3% 1,405,950 975 May-11 1,420,000 984 1% 700,000 790,000 774 713 Sep-11 Jul-11 848,000 1,125,000 938 1,015 21% 42% 1,208,000 1,754 Oct-11 1,370,000 1,989 13% 1,540,000 822 Oct-11 1,545,000 825 0%
19 January 2012
Date of sale
Gain / loss*
*Before buyers and sellers stamp duties and other costs, estimated to be at least 21%. Source: URA, Maybank KE
We sieve out a few unprofitable transactions post-January 2011s curbs that although are not impacted by the full 16% SSD, they are hit by the prior milder SSD imposed, on top of the 3% buyers stamp duty paid. The caveats we found come from sizable projects with more than 900 units, in line with what we had expected, given the competition brought about by the sheer supply of units in each project.
Selected units sold in 2H2011 at losses after factoring in transaction cost Total Date of Project Tenure units purchase Purchase price $m $psf dLeedon Unit A The Minton Unit A City Square Unit A The Sail Unit A Unit D The Interlace Unit A 99-yr from 10 99-yr from 07 Freehold 99-yr from 02 1,715 Dec-10 1,145 Jun-10 910 Aug-10 1,111 Dec-10 Feb-10 99-yr from 09 1,040 Dec-10 2,527,620 1,030 May-11 2,570,000 1,047 2% 1,347,340 1,810,150 2,019 2,051 Dec-11 Sep-11 1,334,000 1,820,000 1,999 2,062 -1% 1% 1,550,000 1,286 Sep-11 1,551,000 1,287 0% 1,306,000 788 Aug-11 1,220,000 736 -7% 1,602,000 1,550 Apr-11 1,574,000 1,523 -2%
Date of sale
Gain / loss*
Here is the list of projects with at least 800 units, which we believe if the property market turns south rapidly and existing owners run to the exit door at the same time, there is a higher chance of getting good bargains.
Projects with more than 800 units Project Bayshore Park Braddell View Caribbean At Keppel Bay City Square Residences Costa Del Sol dLeedon Mandarin Gardens Melville Park Parc Oasis Reflections at Keppel Bay Signature Park The Bayshore The Interlace The Lakeshore The Minton The Sail @ Marina Bay Treasure Trove
Source: URA, Maybank KE
Tenure 99-yr from 93 99-yr from 81 99-yr from 99 Freehold 99-yr from 97 99-yr from 10 99-yr from 82 99-yr from 92 99-yr from 91 99-yr from 06 Freehold 99-yr from93 99-yr from 09 99-yr from 02 99-yr from 07 99-yr from 02 99-yr from 11
District 16 20 4 8 16 10 15 18 22 4 21 16 4 22 19 1 19
Total units 1,083 918 969 910 906 1,715 1,006 1,232 950 1,129 928 1,038 1,040 848 1,145 1,111 882
19 January 2012
Page 2 of 7
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Recent resale transactions
Project The Sunny Spring Euphony Gardens Bullion Park Villa Marina Westcove Condominium Newton 18 Compass Heights Rosewood Orchid Park Condo Langston Ville Nineteen Shelford Road Lighthouse The Raintree The Claymore Fortune Spring The Centris The Tresor Marina Collection Marina Collection Parkview Apartments Dahlia Park Cond Thomson Euro-Asia Parc Haven The Raintree Balestier Plaza The Marque Marina Collection The Hillside Duchess Crest Moro Mansions Maysprings Goldenhill Park Condo The Esta Orchid Park Condo
Source: URA
19 January 2011
Analyst: OOI Yi Tung 65-6433 5712 ooiyitung@kimeng.com
Size (sq m) 111 88 75 140 112 57 120 94 116 87 59 111 124 311 108 99 179 195 195 86 119 105 137 118 127 82 174 122 125 87 124 122 125 106
Price ($psf) 795 871 991 697 896 1,744 774 779 743 1,196 1,367 720 930 2,539 903 1,276 1,868 2,800 2,800 735 781 1,637 1,153 957 936 1,246 2,850 979 1,271 801 727 1,142 1,317 699
Index SRPI Overall (Nov 11) URA PPI (4Q11) HDB Resale (4Q11)
Property Stocks
Name Price CapitaLand 2.49 CityDev 9.32 Ho Bee 1.02 HPL 1.79 KepLand 2.57 SC Global 0.99 SingLand 5.84 UOL 4.09 Wheelock 1.55 Wing Tai 1.02 N.A. = No Coverage Disc/ Prem to RNAV RNAV NTA/share* 4.01 -38% 3.18 12.50 -25% 7.31 2.53 -60% 2.22 4.39 -59% 2.7 5.08 -49% 2.78 3.49 -72% 1.6 9.82 -41% 10.74 N.A. N.A. 6.43 N.A. N.A. 2.35 2.79 -63% 2.49 *As at latest reported Disc/ Prem to NTA/share -22% 27% -54% -34% -8% -38% -46% -36% -34% -59%
19 January 2012
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MARKET SNAPSHOT(CONTD)
Primary Market
Total no. of units Units sold todate Takeup rate (%) 97.8 92.8 19.5 84.0 63.3 34.7 51.3 95.5 69.0 89.3 65.1 85.0 53.6 100.0 81.3 31.5 93.8 49.4 90.9 75.0 47.1 80.1 43.5 84.5 75.1 17.9 40.5 74.1 71.5 50.0 78.1 68.6 80.4 52.1 66.7 39.4 99.6 50.5 78.2 19.3 71.9 76.9 80.7 Units sold (Dec) 4 4 16 4 4 22 20 6 3 25 12 10 5 3 28 16 13 3 3 3 61 18 7 5 4 103 30 11 10 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 28 84 10 8 3 Media n ($psf) 850 1,391 3,364 1,191 2,608 1,476 1,149 1,826 1,587 1,137 1,100 1,272 1,531 1,317 1,362 1,448 1,147 1,361 1,527 1,405 901 739 1,179 881 971 1,118 1,328 708 923 805 1,463 965 1,092 1,233 796 1,037 885 1,330 707 882 1,595 1,033 842
19 January 2011
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com
Secondary Market
District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA $psf Oct11 1,432 1,757 1,179 1,040 1,031 782 910 748 742 $psf Nov11 1,379 1,812 1,175 975 1,042 745 895 772 764 MoM % Change -3.7 3.1 -0.3 -6.2 1.1 -4.8 -1.7 3.2 2.9
City & Southwest (1-8) Studios @ Marne 46 45 Ascentia Sky 373 346 Orchard/ Tanglin/ Holland (9-10) The Scotts Tower 231 45 The Vue 50 42 Goodwood Residences 210 133 Newton / Bukit Timah / Clementi (11,21) Nottinghill Suites 124 43 Prime Residence 39 20 Floridian 336 321 Suites at Bukit Timah 71 49 Balestier / MacPherson / Geylang (12-14) Residences 88 28 25 Central Imperial 63 41 EuHabitat 748 636 Studio8 28 15 D'Weave 71 71 East Coast (15-16) Bedok Residences 583 474 The Seawind 222 70 Waterfront Isle 561 526 Flamingo Valley 393 194 Silversea 383 348 448@East Coast 28 21 Changi / Pasir Ris (17-18) The Palette 892 420 Arc at Tampines EC 574 460 My Manhattan 301 131 Waterview 696 588 Seastrand 473 355 Serangoon / Thomson (19-20) Archipelago 577 103 Cardiff Residences 163 66 Austville Residences EC 540 400 The Minton 1145 819 Parc Vera 452 226 Centro Residences 329 257 Boathouse Residences 493 338 Terrasse 414 333 Thomson Grand 361 188 Hillsgrove 12 8 The Luxerie 622 245 Kovan Residences 521 519 Suites @ Paya Lebar 99 50 West (22-24) Blossom Residences EC 602 471 (EC) North (25-28) The Nautical 435 84 Luxus Hills 320 230 Woodhaven 337 259 Miltonia Residences 410 331 Source: URA
Rental Market
District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA $psf pm Oct11 5.6 4.5 3.5 3.1 3.2 2.7 2.9 3 2.6 $psf pm Nov11 4.8 4.2 3.3 2.9 3.3 2.9 3.1 3.1 2.6 MoM % Change -15.2 -5.7 -6.4 -6.0 1.7 5.6 6.9 3.2 -1.1
19 January 2012
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DEVELOPERS LANDBANK
Developer District 3 6 9 10 10 11 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 23 23 Sentosa Landbank
19 January 2011
Analyst: OOI Yi Tung 65-6433 5712 ooiyitung@kimeng.com
Unsold Units 545 119 122 203 178 5 165 24 472 1,517 605 147 702 785 466 129 207 6,390 68 620 293 307 234 94 377 9 2,002 343 39 1,256 55 150 109 509 140 2,601 110 357 467 34 474 508 188 80 248 147 88 20 771 75 84 159
City Dev
Alexandra Road GLS site South Beach (Beach Road) Futura (Leonie Road) Boulevard Hotel (Cuscaden Road) Lucky Tower (Grange Road) Buckley Classique (Buckley Road) Hedges Park (Flora Road) NV Residences (Pasir Ris) The Palette (Pasir Ris) Pasir Ris Drive 8 (4 + 5) (Pasir Ris) Tampines/Upp Changi Rd North H2O Residences (Sengkang West Ave) Bartley Residences (Bartley Road) Mount Vernon GLS site (Bartley) The Rainforest (EC) (Choa Chu Kang Drive) Blossom Residences (EC) (Segar Road) Residences at W (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units Marina Bay Suites (Marina Bay) Keppel & GE Towers site (Tanjong Pagar) Reflections at Keppel Bay (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 3 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 4 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 5 (Keppel Bay) Sengkang GLS site (Sengkang Square) The Lakeside Residences (Lakeside Drive) Total Unsold Units The Interlace (Gillman Heights) Urban Resort (Cairnhill Rd) Dleedon (Farrer Rd) The Nassim (Nassim Rd) Marine Point (Marine Parade) Bedok Residences(Bedok Central) Sky Habitat (Bishan Street 14) Yio Chu Kang site (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units
KepLand
1 2 4 4 4 4 19 22
CapitaLand
3 9 10 10 15 16 20 26
Ho Bee
Sentosa Sentosa
Seascape at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Pinnacle at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units Spottiswoode Residences (Spottiswoode Park) Archipelago (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Total Unsold Units Skysuites @ Anson (Enggor Street) Project at West Coast Rd (West Coast Road) RV Residences (River Valley) RiverBay (Mar Thoma Rd) Riviera 38 (Mar Thoma Rd) The Cascadia (Bukit Timah Road) Total Unsold Units Scotts Square (Scotts Road) Ardmore 3 (Ardmore Park) Total Unsold Units
99yr 99yr
UOL
2 16
Freehold 99yr
Allgreen
2 5 9 12 12 21
Wheelock
9 10
Freehold Freehold
19 January 2012
Page 5 of 7
19 January 2011
Analyst: OOI Yi Tung 65-6433 5712 ooiyitung@kimeng.com
Unsold Units 500 381 37 918 95 61 24 88 221 80 232 746 1,547 249 199 35 118 380 155 1 992 691 121 2,941 27 64 38 42 157 35 285 648 70 65 580 81 796 35 208 23 50 31 347 20,095
Tanjong Pagar GLS white site (Peck Seah/Choon Guan) Leedon Residence (Leedon Heights) The Waterline (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units Skyline Residences (Telok Blangah) The Vermont on Cairnhill (Cairnhill Rd) Paterson Suites (Paterson Rd) Paterson Suites II (Paterson Rd) St Thomas Walk (St Thomas Walk) Watercove Villes (Wak Hassan Drive) Nim Road (Nim Road) Luxus Hills (Seletar Green) Total Unsold Units
Bt Sembawang
4 9 9 9 9 27 28 28
Frasers Centrepoint
9 15 16 18 18 19 19 19 19 27
Starhub Centre (Cuppage Rd) Flamingo Valley (Siglap Rd) Waterfront Isle (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Seastrand (Pasir Ris Drive 3) Palm Isles (Flora Drive) Boathouse Residences (Hougang) Esparina Residences (Sengkang) Watertown (Punggol) Punggol GLS site (Punggol Way / Punggol Field) Eight Courtyards (Yishun Ave 2) Total Unsold Units Ascentia Sky (Redhill) HELIOS Residence (Cairnhill Circle) Belle Vue Residences (Oxley Walk) Le Nouvel Ardmore (Ardmore Park) Anderson 18 (Ardmore Park) L'VIV (Newton Rd) Foresque Residences (Petir Road) Total Unsold Units
99yr Freehold 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr
Wing Tai
3 9 9 10 10 11 23
MCL Land
10 15 17 19
NOB Hill (Ewe Boon Rd) Casa Nassau (East Coast Rd) Ripple Bay (Jalan Loyang Besar) Terrasse (Hougang Ave 2) Total Unsold Units
SC Global
9 9 9 10 Sentosa
The Marq (Paterson Hill) Hilltops (Cairnhill Circle) Martin No. 38 (Martin Rd) The Ardmore (Ardmore Road) Seven Palms (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units Grand Total
Source:HDB,URA
19 January 2012
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