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Co.

Reg No: 198700034E MICA (P) : 090/11/2009

Singapore
THEREALDEALS Ins&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate
Who paid 16% Sellers Stamp Duty?
During bad times, selling at a loss might be the best way out before it gets worse. Indeed, some investors are doing just that. Recall that the Sellers Stamp Duty (SSD) of around 3% was first imposed in February 2010. It was revised once in August 2010 and again in January 2011, where it was ramped up to 16% for residential properties sold within a year. Overall residential property prices rose less than 6% in the past year so any transaction hit by a 16% SSD is likely to have sold at a loss. We analysed caveat data by the Urban Redevelopment Authority and reveal exactly how many people paid the full 16% SSD. Based on caveat data, 14 apartments were sold within a year of purchase after the 16% SSD took effect. Reflections at Keppel Bay had the most cases, followed by Hillview Regency. Interestingly, there was a case in Hillview Regency where the owner made a 42.4% gain in just over 3 months, more than offset the 16% SSD. In all other cases, the owners sold at losses, after factoring in 19% stamp duty (3% buyers and 16% sellers) and 2% agents commission. Such transactions are worrying and reflect current investor confidence in the property market but the level of such activities is still low, averaging about 1 transaction a month since the16% SSD took effect. The latest round of cooling moves in December 2011 could be a catalyst for more such sales, especially as the SSD steps down to 12% in the second year versus markets expectation that prices may drop 15-20%. We think bigger projects are likely to see more such cases, as competition heats up among neighbours to unload their units, and possibly undercutting each other. In the next page, we look at a handful of other projects, highlighting unprofitable transactions post-January 2011s curbs.
Residential properties sold within a year of purchase after 13 January 2011 Total Date of Project Tenure units purchase Purchase price $m $psf Bullion Park Unit A Dorsett Residences Unit A Hillview Regency Unit A Unit B Kovan Residences Unit A Moonstone Residences Unit A Owen Road Unit A Oasis @ Elias Unit A Palm Mansions Unit A Prestige Heights Unit A Reflections at Keppel Bay Unit A Unit B Unit C The Petals Unit A Freehold 99-yr from 09 99-yr from 00 473 Sep-11 68 Apr-11 572 Mar-11 Apr-11 99-yr from 07 Freehold 99-yr from 59 99-yr from 08 Freehold Freehold 99-yr from 06 521 Apr-11 76 Apr-11 Apr-11 388 Apr-11 30 Jun-11 154 Apr-11 1,129 Sep-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Freehold 270 May-11 1,145,000 909 Oct-11 1,160,000 921 1% 1,827,099 1,352,901 8,500,000 1,516 1,514 2,668 Dec-11 Dec-11 Nov-11 1,916,530 1,460,870 7,500,000 1,590 1,635 2,354 5% 8% -12% 499,500 1,497 Nov-11 515,000 1,543 3% 1,090,000 823 Jun-11 1,120,000 846 3% 745,000 761 Apr-11 770,000 786 3% 518,000 152 Jul-11 525,000 154 1% 1,150,000 929 Dec-11 1,118,000 903 -3% 1,405,950 975 May-11 1,420,000 984 1% 700,000 790,000 774 713 Sep-11 Jul-11 848,000 1,125,000 938 1,015 21% 42% 1,208,000 1,754 Oct-11 1,370,000 1,989 13% 1,540,000 822 Oct-11 1,545,000 825 0%

19 January 2012

Date of sale

Sale price $m $psf

Gain / loss*

*Before buyers and sellers stamp duties and other costs, estimated to be at least 21%. Source: URA, Maybank KE

Kim Eng Research is a subsidiary of Malayan Banking Berhad

SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS

HE EAL EALS Ins&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate

We sieve out a few unprofitable transactions post-January 2011s curbs that although are not impacted by the full 16% SSD, they are hit by the prior milder SSD imposed, on top of the 3% buyers stamp duty paid. The caveats we found come from sizable projects with more than 900 units, in line with what we had expected, given the competition brought about by the sheer supply of units in each project.
Selected units sold in 2H2011 at losses after factoring in transaction cost Total Date of Project Tenure units purchase Purchase price $m $psf dLeedon Unit A The Minton Unit A City Square Unit A The Sail Unit A Unit D The Interlace Unit A 99-yr from 10 99-yr from 07 Freehold 99-yr from 02 1,715 Dec-10 1,145 Jun-10 910 Aug-10 1,111 Dec-10 Feb-10 99-yr from 09 1,040 Dec-10 2,527,620 1,030 May-11 2,570,000 1,047 2% 1,347,340 1,810,150 2,019 2,051 Dec-11 Sep-11 1,334,000 1,820,000 1,999 2,062 -1% 1% 1,550,000 1,286 Sep-11 1,551,000 1,287 0% 1,306,000 788 Aug-11 1,220,000 736 -7% 1,602,000 1,550 Apr-11 1,574,000 1,523 -2%

Date of sale

Sale price $m $psf

Gain / loss*

*Before stamp duties and other costs. Source: URA, Maybank KE

Here is the list of projects with at least 800 units, which we believe if the property market turns south rapidly and existing owners run to the exit door at the same time, there is a higher chance of getting good bargains.
Projects with more than 800 units Project Bayshore Park Braddell View Caribbean At Keppel Bay City Square Residences Costa Del Sol dLeedon Mandarin Gardens Melville Park Parc Oasis Reflections at Keppel Bay Signature Park The Bayshore The Interlace The Lakeshore The Minton The Sail @ Marina Bay Treasure Trove
Source: URA, Maybank KE

Tenure 99-yr from 93 99-yr from 81 99-yr from 99 Freehold 99-yr from 97 99-yr from 10 99-yr from 82 99-yr from 92 99-yr from 91 99-yr from 06 Freehold 99-yr from93 99-yr from 09 99-yr from 02 99-yr from 07 99-yr from 02 99-yr from 11

District 16 20 4 8 16 10 15 18 22 4 21 16 4 22 19 1 19

Total units 1,083 918 969 910 906 1,715 1,006 1,232 950 1,129 928 1,038 1,040 848 1,145 1,111 882

19 January 2012

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MARKET SNAPSHOT
Recent resale transactions
Project The Sunny Spring Euphony Gardens Bullion Park Villa Marina Westcove Condominium Newton 18 Compass Heights Rosewood Orchid Park Condo Langston Ville Nineteen Shelford Road Lighthouse The Raintree The Claymore Fortune Spring The Centris The Tresor Marina Collection Marina Collection Parkview Apartments Dahlia Park Cond Thomson Euro-Asia Parc Haven The Raintree Balestier Plaza The Marque Marina Collection The Hillside Duchess Crest Moro Mansions Maysprings Goldenhill Park Condo The Esta Orchid Park Condo
Source: URA

19 January 2011
Analyst: OOI Yi Tung 65-6433 5712 ooiyitung@kimeng.com

Property Price Indices


Planning area Geylang Mandai Ang Mo Kio Bedok Clementi Novena Sengkang Woodlands Yishun River Valley Bukit Timah Pasir Ris Bukit Panjang Newton Bedok Jurong West Bukit Timah Sentosa Sentosa Bukit Batok Pasir Ris Novena Novena Bukit Panjang Novena Novena Sentosa Bukit Batok Bukit Timah Geylang Bukit Panjang Serangoon Marine Parade Yishun

Size (sq m) 111 88 75 140 112 57 120 94 116 87 59 111 124 311 108 99 179 195 195 86 119 105 137 118 127 82 174 122 125 87 124 122 125 106

Price ($psf) 795 871 991 697 896 1,744 774 779 743 1,196 1,367 720 930 2,539 903 1,276 1,868 2,800 2,800 735 781 1,637 1,153 957 936 1,246 2,850 979 1,271 801 727 1,142 1,317 699

Index SRPI Overall (Nov 11) URA PPI (4Q11) HDB Resale (4Q11)

Level 168.1 206.2 190.4

Change +1.0% +0.2% +1.7%

Government Land Sales (GLS)


Recently Awarded Sites Flora Drive (41.9k sqm, 415 units) Awarded to Koh Brothers for $163m ($361.2 psf ppr) Yishun Central 7 / Canberra Drive, EC (67.9k sqm, 725 units) Awarded to MCC Land for $213.8m ($292.6 psf ppr) Punggol Central / Edgedale Plains (60.8k sqm, 610 units) Awarded to Qingjian for $218.9m ($334.6 psf ppr) Yishun Ave 1 / Miltonia Close (35.5k sqm, 355 units) Awarded to TG Dev for $138.9m ($363.6 psf ppr) Chestnut Ave (39.3k sqm, 380 units) Awarded to SP Setia for $180m ($425.8 psf ppr) Alexandra Road (48.8k sqm, 545 units) Awarded to CDL / Hong Leong for $396m ($754.4 psf ppr) Chestnut Ave / Almond Ave (12.9k sqm, 35 landed units) Awarded to SCB Terraform for $70.8m ($510.4 psf ppr) Punggol Central / Punggol Place (54.1k sqm, 540 units) Awarded to Wee Hur for $206.2m ($354.4 psf ppr) Mount Vernon (72.8k sqm, 785 units) Awarded to CDL / Hong Leong / TID for $388.1m ($495 psf ppr) Jalan Lempeng (68.4k sqm, 685 units) Awarded to IOI Corp for $408m ($554.4 psf ppr) Kovan Road / Simon Road (35.7k sqm, 360 units) Highest offer of $194.6m ($506.6 psf ppr) from Hoi Hups consortium Confirmed List (Recently open for tender) Jervois Road (12.5k sqm, 140 units) Tender closing on 2 February 2012 Bedok South Avenue 3 (60.2k sqm, 595 units) Tender closing on 9 February 2012 Upper Serangoon View / Upper Serangoon Road, EC (43.4k sqm, 435 units) Tender closing on 1 March 2012 Hillview Avenue (35.4k sqm, 370 units) Tender closing on 6 March 2012 Reserve List (Recently open for tender) Jalan Jurong Kechil (14.2k sqm, 240 units) Buangkok Dr / Sengkang Central (55k sqm, 495 units) Tanah Merah Kechil Rd (39.2k sqm, 470 units) Stirling Road A (44.5k sqm, 445 units) Stirling Road B (44.1 sqm, 445 units) Elias Rd / Pasir Ris Dr 3 (32.7k sqm, 295 units) Sengkang Square (64.4k sqm, 710 units)
Source: HDB, URA

Property Stocks
Name Price CapitaLand 2.49 CityDev 9.32 Ho Bee 1.02 HPL 1.79 KepLand 2.57 SC Global 0.99 SingLand 5.84 UOL 4.09 Wheelock 1.55 Wing Tai 1.02 N.A. = No Coverage Disc/ Prem to RNAV RNAV NTA/share* 4.01 -38% 3.18 12.50 -25% 7.31 2.53 -60% 2.22 4.39 -59% 2.7 5.08 -49% 2.78 3.49 -72% 1.6 9.82 -41% 10.74 N.A. N.A. 6.43 N.A. N.A. 2.35 2.79 -63% 2.49 *As at latest reported Disc/ Prem to NTA/share -22% 27% -54% -34% -8% -38% -46% -36% -34% -59%

19 January 2012

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HE EAL EALS Ins&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate

MARKET SNAPSHOT(CONTD)
Primary Market
Total no. of units Units sold todate Takeup rate (%) 97.8 92.8 19.5 84.0 63.3 34.7 51.3 95.5 69.0 89.3 65.1 85.0 53.6 100.0 81.3 31.5 93.8 49.4 90.9 75.0 47.1 80.1 43.5 84.5 75.1 17.9 40.5 74.1 71.5 50.0 78.1 68.6 80.4 52.1 66.7 39.4 99.6 50.5 78.2 19.3 71.9 76.9 80.7 Units sold (Dec) 4 4 16 4 4 22 20 6 3 25 12 10 5 3 28 16 13 3 3 3 61 18 7 5 4 103 30 11 10 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 28 84 10 8 3 Media n ($psf) 850 1,391 3,364 1,191 2,608 1,476 1,149 1,826 1,587 1,137 1,100 1,272 1,531 1,317 1,362 1,448 1,147 1,361 1,527 1,405 901 739 1,179 881 971 1,118 1,328 708 923 805 1,463 965 1,092 1,233 796 1,037 885 1,330 707 882 1,595 1,033 842

19 January 2011
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com

Secondary Market
District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA $psf Oct11 1,432 1,757 1,179 1,040 1,031 782 910 748 742 $psf Nov11 1,379 1,812 1,175 975 1,042 745 895 772 764 MoM % Change -3.7 3.1 -0.3 -6.2 1.1 -4.8 -1.7 3.2 2.9

City & Southwest (1-8) Studios @ Marne 46 45 Ascentia Sky 373 346 Orchard/ Tanglin/ Holland (9-10) The Scotts Tower 231 45 The Vue 50 42 Goodwood Residences 210 133 Newton / Bukit Timah / Clementi (11,21) Nottinghill Suites 124 43 Prime Residence 39 20 Floridian 336 321 Suites at Bukit Timah 71 49 Balestier / MacPherson / Geylang (12-14) Residences 88 28 25 Central Imperial 63 41 EuHabitat 748 636 Studio8 28 15 D'Weave 71 71 East Coast (15-16) Bedok Residences 583 474 The Seawind 222 70 Waterfront Isle 561 526 Flamingo Valley 393 194 Silversea 383 348 448@East Coast 28 21 Changi / Pasir Ris (17-18) The Palette 892 420 Arc at Tampines EC 574 460 My Manhattan 301 131 Waterview 696 588 Seastrand 473 355 Serangoon / Thomson (19-20) Archipelago 577 103 Cardiff Residences 163 66 Austville Residences EC 540 400 The Minton 1145 819 Parc Vera 452 226 Centro Residences 329 257 Boathouse Residences 493 338 Terrasse 414 333 Thomson Grand 361 188 Hillsgrove 12 8 The Luxerie 622 245 Kovan Residences 521 519 Suites @ Paya Lebar 99 50 West (22-24) Blossom Residences EC 602 471 (EC) North (25-28) The Nautical 435 84 Luxus Hills 320 230 Woodhaven 337 259 Miltonia Residences 410 331 Source: URA

Rental Market
District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA $psf pm Oct11 5.6 4.5 3.5 3.1 3.2 2.7 2.9 3 2.6 $psf pm Nov11 4.8 4.2 3.3 2.9 3.3 2.9 3.1 3.1 2.6 MoM % Change -15.2 -5.7 -6.4 -6.0 1.7 5.6 6.9 3.2 -1.1

Top 5 Resale Transactions by $psf


Project Marina Collection Seascape Ardmore II Richmond Park The Claymore Source: URA Tenure 99 Yr (fm 2007) 99 Yr (fm 2007) Freehold Freehold Freehold District 4 4 10 9 9 $psf 2,750 2,627 2,574 2,570 2,539

Bottom 5 Resale Transactions by $psf


Project Kismis Court Phoenix Heights Tampines Court Wing Fong Court Elias Green Source: URA Tenure 99 Yr (fm 1981) 99 Yr (fm 1969) 101 Yr (fm 1985) Freehold 99 Yr (fm 1991) District 21 23 18 14 18 $psf 434 547 576 619 624

19 January 2012

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HE EAL EALS Ins&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate

DEVELOPERS LANDBANK
Developer District 3 6 9 10 10 11 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 23 23 Sentosa Landbank

19 January 2011
Analyst: OOI Yi Tung 65-6433 5712 ooiyitung@kimeng.com

Tenure 99 99 Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold 99 99 99 99 Freehold 99 99 99 99 99 99

Unsold Units 545 119 122 203 178 5 165 24 472 1,517 605 147 702 785 466 129 207 6,390 68 620 293 307 234 94 377 9 2,002 343 39 1,256 55 150 109 509 140 2,601 110 357 467 34 474 508 188 80 248 147 88 20 771 75 84 159

City Dev

Alexandra Road GLS site South Beach (Beach Road) Futura (Leonie Road) Boulevard Hotel (Cuscaden Road) Lucky Tower (Grange Road) Buckley Classique (Buckley Road) Hedges Park (Flora Road) NV Residences (Pasir Ris) The Palette (Pasir Ris) Pasir Ris Drive 8 (4 + 5) (Pasir Ris) Tampines/Upp Changi Rd North H2O Residences (Sengkang West Ave) Bartley Residences (Bartley Road) Mount Vernon GLS site (Bartley) The Rainforest (EC) (Choa Chu Kang Drive) Blossom Residences (EC) (Segar Road) Residences at W (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units Marina Bay Suites (Marina Bay) Keppel & GE Towers site (Tanjong Pagar) Reflections at Keppel Bay (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 3 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 4 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 5 (Keppel Bay) Sengkang GLS site (Sengkang Square) The Lakeside Residences (Lakeside Drive) Total Unsold Units The Interlace (Gillman Heights) Urban Resort (Cairnhill Rd) Dleedon (Farrer Rd) The Nassim (Nassim Rd) Marine Point (Marine Parade) Bedok Residences(Bedok Central) Sky Habitat (Bishan Street 14) Yio Chu Kang site (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units

KepLand

1 2 4 4 4 4 19 22

99yr Freehold 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr

CapitaLand

3 9 10 10 15 16 20 26

99yr Freehold 99yr Freehold Freehold 99yr 99yr Freehold

Ho Bee

Sentosa Sentosa

Seascape at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Pinnacle at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units Spottiswoode Residences (Spottiswoode Park) Archipelago (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Total Unsold Units Skysuites @ Anson (Enggor Street) Project at West Coast Rd (West Coast Road) RV Residences (River Valley) RiverBay (Mar Thoma Rd) Riviera 38 (Mar Thoma Rd) The Cascadia (Bukit Timah Road) Total Unsold Units Scotts Square (Scotts Road) Ardmore 3 (Ardmore Park) Total Unsold Units

99yr 99yr

UOL

2 16

Freehold 99yr

Allgreen

2 5 9 12 12 21

99yr Freehold 999yr 999yr 999yr Freehold

Wheelock

9 10

Freehold Freehold

19 January 2012

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HE EAL EALS Ins&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate

DEVELOPERS LANDBANK (CONTD)


Developer District 2 10 26 Landbank Guocoland

19 January 2011
Analyst: OOI Yi Tung 65-6433 5712 ooiyitung@kimeng.com

Tenure 99yr 99yr Freehold

Unsold Units 500 381 37 918 95 61 24 88 221 80 232 746 1,547 249 199 35 118 380 155 1 992 691 121 2,941 27 64 38 42 157 35 285 648 70 65 580 81 796 35 208 23 50 31 347 20,095

Tanjong Pagar GLS white site (Peck Seah/Choon Guan) Leedon Residence (Leedon Heights) The Waterline (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units Skyline Residences (Telok Blangah) The Vermont on Cairnhill (Cairnhill Rd) Paterson Suites (Paterson Rd) Paterson Suites II (Paterson Rd) St Thomas Walk (St Thomas Walk) Watercove Villes (Wak Hassan Drive) Nim Road (Nim Road) Luxus Hills (Seletar Green) Total Unsold Units

Bt Sembawang

4 9 9 9 9 27 28 28

Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold

Frasers Centrepoint

9 15 16 18 18 19 19 19 19 27

Starhub Centre (Cuppage Rd) Flamingo Valley (Siglap Rd) Waterfront Isle (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Seastrand (Pasir Ris Drive 3) Palm Isles (Flora Drive) Boathouse Residences (Hougang) Esparina Residences (Sengkang) Watertown (Punggol) Punggol GLS site (Punggol Way / Punggol Field) Eight Courtyards (Yishun Ave 2) Total Unsold Units Ascentia Sky (Redhill) HELIOS Residence (Cairnhill Circle) Belle Vue Residences (Oxley Walk) Le Nouvel Ardmore (Ardmore Park) Anderson 18 (Ardmore Park) L'VIV (Newton Rd) Foresque Residences (Petir Road) Total Unsold Units

99yr Freehold 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr

Wing Tai

3 9 9 10 10 11 23

99yr Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold 99yr

MCL Land

10 15 17 19

NOB Hill (Ewe Boon Rd) Casa Nassau (East Coast Rd) Ripple Bay (Jalan Loyang Besar) Terrasse (Hougang Ave 2) Total Unsold Units

Freehold Freehold 99yr 99yr

SC Global

9 9 9 10 Sentosa

The Marq (Paterson Hill) Hilltops (Cairnhill Circle) Martin No. 38 (Martin Rd) The Ardmore (Ardmore Road) Seven Palms (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units Grand Total

Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold 99yr

Source:HDB,URA

19 January 2012

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HE EAL EALS Ins&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate


APPENDIX I: TERMS FOR PROVISION OF REPORT, DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS
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It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial products. The information and commentaries are also not meant to be endorsements or offerings of any securities, options, stocks or other investment vehicles. The report has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances, needs or objectives of persons who receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Readers should not rely on any of the information herein as authoritative or substitute for the exercise of their own skill and judgment in making any investment or other decision. Readers should independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and are encouraged to seek the advice of a financial adviser before making any investment or entering into any transaction in relation to the securities mentioned in this report. 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BY ACCEPTING THIS REPORT, YOU AGREE TO BE BOUND BY THE FOREGOING LIMITATIONS. Without prejudice to the foregoing, the reader is to note that additional disclaimers, warnings or qualifications may apply if the reader is receiving or accessing this report in or from other than Singapore. As of 22 December 2011, Kim Eng Research Pte. Ltd. and the covering analyst do not have any interest in the stocks mentioned. Analyst Certification: The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst's personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. 2012 Kim Eng Research Pte Ltd. All rights reserved. Except as specifically permitted, no part of this presentation may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the prior written permission of Kim Eng Research Pte. Ltd. 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www.maybank-ke.com | www.kimengreseach.com.sg 19 January 2012 Page 7 of 7

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