Thayer Consultancy

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Background Briefing: The New U.S. National Defense Strategy and the Asia-Pacific Carlyle A. Thayer January 10, 2012

[clientnamedeleted] On January 5th 2012, US President Barack Obama unveiled a new strategy on national defense. Accordingly, US Joint Forces will go under changes in the near future; and US officially moves forward its strategy of focusing back on the Asia Pacificregion.Werequestyourassessmentofthefollowingissues. 1.Firstofall,howwouldyouassessthenewUSnationaldefensestrategy?Whatare themostimportantpointsinthisstrategycomparedwithpreviousones? ANSWER:ThemostimportantaspectofthenewU.S.defensestrategyistheriseof theAsiaPacificasthepriorityareaofU.S.strategicinterestandtherelativelowering of Europe. The second important change is the U.S. has dropped the defense objectiveofbeingabletofightandprevailintworegionalconflictssimultaneously. The U.S. will now aim to fight and win one regional war and prevent an adversary fromwinninginasecondregionalwaruntilU.S.forcescanberedeployed.Thethird aspect is the U.S. move away from manpowerintensive counterinsurgency wars, suchasIraqandAfghanistan,todevelopingsmallereliteforcesforthistask.Finally, theU.S.isputtingthewarsinIraqandAfghanistanbehindandisnowpreparingfor thefutureinwhichnewtechnologieswillmaketheirappearance. OneconstantthemeinU.S.defensepolicyisthereassertionthattheUnitedStatesis determined to remain the worlds leading military power in all aspects of war fightingincludingcyberwarfare.TheUnitedStateswillcreateasmallerJointForce by2020equippedwithcuttingedgecapabilitiestoaccomplishthismission 2. Inyour view,whatarethreatsthattheUSisfacedwith?What arethereasons, leadingtothesechangesinitsnationaldefense? ANSWER:TheUnitedStatesfacestwotypesofthreats,thosethatexistnowandwill persist in the future, and newly emerging threats. The former threats consist of terrorism/violentextremism,proliferationofweaponsofmassdestructionandtheir meansofdelivery(ballisticmissiles),instabilityontheKoreanpeninsulaandnuclear deterrence. New threats range from antiassess/area denial capabilities to cyber attacksandspacewarfare,

2 There are two drivers behind the new U.S. defense strategy. The first is financial. Congress has mandated cuts in the defense budget. The second driver is that the U.S.isextricatingitselffromthecostlygroundwarsinIraqandAfghanistanandmust now face emerging challenges resulting from new military technologies. The main challenge is the development of antiaccess/area denial capabilities by several states, such as China, Iran and North Korea, aimed at restricting the ability of U.S. forcestomaneuverintimesofcrisis. 3. President Barack Obama said that US will cut down the military budget of 450 billionUSDbutthiswontaffectUSforcepostureintheAsiaPacific.Isitcorrect thatUSwillofficiallyfocusitsstrategyontheAsiaPacific? ANSWER: Yes, both the President and Secretary of Defense have said they will quarantine AsiaPacific from defense cuts because it is strategically the most importantregionintheworldfortheU.S.TheUnitedStateshasalreadycommitted sixtypercentofitsnuclearsubmarinefleettotheAsiaPacific.TheU.S.willdeployits latest stealth fighters and bombers to the AsiaPacific. And the United States will retainfiveaircraftcarrierbattlegroupsintheregion. The United States will continue to commit forces to the defense of its allies Japan and South Korea. The United States will continue to sell weapons to Taiwan and maintainU.S.militaryforcescapableofprevailinginaconflictoverTaiwan.Thisisa legal requirement set by Congress. At the same time, the U.S. will reposition its forces more widely in the AsiaPacific so it can respond both to traditional (or conventional)andnontraditional(naturaldisasters)threats. 4.SomeanalystssaidthatthechangesintheUSnationaldefensearecausedbythe rapidemergenceofChinesemilitarystrength.Whatisyourassessment? ANSWER: The word China was not mentioned once by the U.S. President or SecretaryofDefenseintheremarkslaunchingthenewdefensestrategy.ButChina was specifically mentioned in the new defense doctrine, Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense. The new U.S. strategy is aimed primarilyatChinabutalsoatNorthKoreaandIran. China has begun a program of military transformation aimed at dominating the maritimedomainfromthefirstislandchaintothesecondislandchainoutasfaras Guam. China is also developing a nuclear deterrence capability. The United States has decided to counter Chinas military power by developing new capabilities to strikefromadistanceincludingunmannedaerialvehicles.TheUnitedStatesmustdo so in order to attain its objective of remaining the most powerful military in the worldandtogivereassurancetoitsallies,strategicpartnersandotherswhorelyon theU.S.fortheirsecurity. 5.Inthelongterm,doyouthinkthatUSgetitsgoalsofpreventingandrestraining China successfully? What measures will the US about to apply to reach to these goals? ANSWER: Stress must be given that the new U.S. defense doctrine mentions both challengesandopportunitiesinthenewsecurityenvironment.TheUnitedStateswill seek to engage with China because both nations have, in the words of the new

3 guidance, a strong stake in peace and stability in East Asia and an interest in buildingacooperativebilateralrelationship. President Obama also has made it clear that the U.S. will use all tools of national powermilitary,diplomacy,development,intelligenceandhomelandsecurityto defendU.S.vitalnationalinterests.ThereforeU.S.defensestrategyaimstocounter thedevelopmentofChinesemilitarycapabilitiesthatthreatentheU.S.suchasanti access/area denial capabilities in the Western Pacific. Over time power relativities willchange.ChinawillgrowmorepowerfulmilitarilycomparedtotheUnitedStates. But the U.S. will retain its preeminent position for decades into the future. China U.S. military rivalry will abate only when the two sides trust each other more and China is more transparent in explaining why it is developing its military forces the way it is. U.S. relations with China will also improve when China stops causing frictionintheregionthroughitsmaritimeandterritorialclaims. 6.HowwillcountriesintheAsianPacificregioningeneral,andChinainparticular, reacttothenewUSstrategy? ANSWER: China has reacted negatively accusing the U.S. of militarism. China will resorttoblusteraswellasdisplaysofmilitaryprowess.BothChinaandtheUnited Statesaretryingtoinfluenceregionalperceptions.TheU.S.wantstoovercomethe viewthatitisonthedecline.Chinawantstoportrayitselfasthenewpowerwiththe U.S. relegated to the role of outsider. The next several decades will witness an actionreaction arms cycle in which China and the United States will respond to eachothersadvanceinmilitarytechnologyandcapability. The majority of states in the AsiaPacific welcome the U.S. presence as a positive contributor to security. Some states however fear being caught in the middle of ChinaU.S. competition. There are also states that prefer not to take sides. They quietly support a U.S. continued presence in the AsiaPacific because they will not havetospendmoremoneyondefenseselfreliance. U.S.alliesandpartnersofcoursewelcometheU.S.commitmenttoAsiaPacific.they also face the challenge of responding to the new U.S. defense strategy by making theirmilitaryforcesinteroperablewiththeU.S.byincorporatingnewtechnologyand capabilities.Thiswillbeanexpensiveproposition.