The Relationship between Human Capital,

Exports and Economic Growth in Taiwan

E-mail: mshourbagui@yahoo.com

2007
:

28 27 2007
.

Mailing Address: Dr. Magdy A. El-Shourbagui, Department of Economics, Misr

University for Science and Technology, 6th of October City, Al-Motamayez
District, Egypt. Tel: (202) 2202-2623. Fax: (202) 3835-4699. E-mail:
mshourbagui@yahoo.com.

The Relationship between Human Capital,

Exports and Economic Growth in Taiwan

.2005 -1986

(1) : Zivot and

) (2) .Andrews (1992

) The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach

(3) .(The Bounds Testing Approach
.ARDL

(1) :

(2) . ) :(

) .(

(3) . ) :(
)( ) .(

) (ARDL ARDL
) (ARDL-ECM ARDL-ECM

ARDL-ECM.

]
Emery (1967); Balassa (1978); Feder (1983); Chow (1987): :
Shah and Yusoff (1990); Dodaro (1993); Doraisami (1996); Al-Yousif
(1997); Begum and Shamsuddin (1998); Keong et al. (2005); Chen
) [ (2007 ]
Romer (1989); Barro (1991); Barro and Lee (1993); De :
;)Meulemeester and Rochat (1995); In and Doucouliagos (1997
Narayan and Smyth (2004b); Benhabib and Spiegel (1994); Essen
) [ (2005) ; Snir and Levy (2006); Abbasa and Foreman-Peck (2007

) Chung (2000 Narayan and Smyth
) .(2004a
Endogenous Growth Theory
] :

Lucas

)Kumar et ) [ (1988); Romer (1990); Grossman and Helpman (1991

.(al., 2004:24


.2005 -1986 (1) :
).Zivot and Andrews (1992
) (2
) The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach
(3) .(The Bounds Testing Approach
.ARDL

.
(1) :

(2) . ) :(
) .(
(3) . ) :(
)( ) .(
.
: .
.
.
.
. .

. :

.
1.2

]) [Baumol (1986); Barro (1991); Barro and Lee (1993
[Lucas (1988); Romer (1990); Grossman and
]).(Narayan and Smyth , 2004a: 26) Helpman (1991

) Abbasa and Foreman-Peck,

.(2007: 4-5
) Lucas (1988
:
)(1

Y t = AK t (u , HC t , Lt )1 HC a,t

:
=Y
= K
=u
= HC
a

= HC .
. = 0

= L
= A ) ( . .
:
)(2

) HCt = (1u

=
= HC
.

.

) (1u
.

) Romer (1990
.
.

.
) .(Norayan and Smyth, 2004a: 26

.

) Norayan and Smyth, 2004b:
.(1
.

.
.
In and Doucouliagos De Meulemeester and Rochat (1995) :

).Narayan and Smyth (2004a) (1997

) De Meulemeester and Rochat (1995
6 :
) (1975 - 1885
) (1987 - 1919

) (1986 - 1910
) (1986 - 1899 ) (1986 - 1885 ).(1986 - 1906

.
.

1949 1984
) In and Doucouliagos (1997 )(
.
) Narayan and Smyth (2004b
.1999 1960
] ) Johansen (1988
) [ Gregory and Hansen (1996 Granger
. (1) :
(2) .
.
2.2

) Tsen, 2006: 8-11 ; Medina-Smith,
:(2000: 4; Narayan and Smyth, 2004a: 27
Export-Led Growth Hypothesis
) (ELGH
).Growth-Led Export (GLEH

.

.

.
.

.
.

.

:
.

.

.

.

.
(1) :
] Arnade and Vasavada :
) (2) .[ (1995); Fosu (1996); Thornton (1996
] :
) (3) Henriques and Sadorsky (1996); Al-Yousif (1999
]
Dutt and Ghosh (1994); Thornton (1997); Shan and Sun (1998) :
[.
3.2

) .(Tsern, 2006: 9
- .
.

.


]) .[Snir and Levy (2006

.
4.2


1.4.2 )Chuang (2000
) Chuang (2000

1952 1995
.
(1) :
.

(2) .
. .

10

2.4.2 )Narayan and Smyth (2004a

) Narayan and Smyth (2004a

1960 1999 ARDL
Vector Error Correction Model
).(VECM
(1) :

(2) .

(3) .
(4) .
) :( )(
) .(
).(
.
.

.

.
) Chuang (2000
ARDL
. Narayan and
) Smyth (2004a

11

ARDL

.VECM


.

1986 .2005 ) (1

. The Internationl
Centre
for
the
Study
of
East
Asian
Development
).(http://www.icsead.or.jp/7publication/eaep_e.html
) :(1

GDPDEFt Gross Domestic Product

.(2001=100) Deflator
.

X PI t ).(2001=100

GDPt ) (.

X t ) (.
RY t .
GDP GDPDEF .100

RX t .
X X PI .100

12

HCt .
.

) (

. 100

) (1 ZA (2) .

(3) .ARDL

(4) .ARDL (ARDL- ARDL

(6) .ARDL- ECM

) (5) .ECM
.ARDL-ECM
1.4 ZA
ARDL
.

] ) [I(2 .
F-
) Pesaran et al. (2001
] )[I(0
] )Frimpong and Oteng-) [I(1
.(Abayie, 2006: 9
ARDL
.

)) Zivot and Andrews (1992

13

.(ZA
.

:
)(3
:

=
=
= ) (

=
:
)) (A ZA
(:
)(4

Y t = A + A DU

+ At
t
k A
+ AY + c j Y
+e
t -1 j =1
t-j t

)) (B ZA
(:
)(5

* Y t = B + B t + B DT
t
k B
+ BY + c j Y
+e
t -1 j =1
t-j t

)) (C ZA
(:
)(6
:

Y t = C + C DU

* + C t + C DT
t
t
k C
+CY + c j Y
+e
t -1 j =1
t-j t

14

] o if t [T *

] 1 if > [T *

DU

] o if t [T *

*
= DU
] t t - T * ) if t > [T *

:
= . ) Perron (1989
.8

= ) ( =T b /T
= T ) (T b = *T
b
= DU

) (
t

t -1

( ) Y

) ZA (1992 .
t

) .I (0 t
t
.
) (1 AZ
) (C B A
. (1) : A
.STATA Version 9.2

15

) :( ln RY
t

ln RX )) .I(0(

HC ) (2) .I(1 B ) :(
t

) .% 5(
(3) .% 1 C ) :(
ln RX HC ) .(
t
t
.

ln RY

) I(0
) .I(1 The Bounds
Testing Approach ).(ARDL
2.4 ARDL
)
( : ) Engle and Granger (1987
) Johansen (1988; 1991 ).Johansen and Juselius (1990

) ( .
The Autoregressive Distributed
) Lag (ARDL) Approach The Bounds Testing
(Approach .
)Pesaran Pesaran and Smith (1998) Pesaran and Pesaran (1995
).Pesaran et al., (2001) and Shin (1999
ARDL ) Frimpong-Oteng-Abayie,
(1) :(2006: 6; Shrestha, 2005: 2-3
) I(0

16

) I(1 (2) .
) (
.

(3) .
.

ARDL
Unrestricted Error Correction
) Model (UECM
:
) (7

ln RY t = a + ln RY + ln RX + HC
0 1
t -1 2
t -1 3 t 1
p
q
+ b ln RY
+ b ln RX
t -i i =0 2i
t -i
i =1 1i
q
+ b HC +U 1t
t -i
i =0 3i

ln RX t = + ln RX + ln RY + HC
0
1
2
3 t 1
t -1
t -1
p
q
+ ln RX
+ ln RY
)(8
1
i
t
i
2
i
t
i
i =1
i =0
q
+ HC +U 2t
t -i
i =0 3i
HCt = c + HC + ln RY + RX
0 1 t -1
2
t -1 3 t 1
p
q
+ c HC + c ln RY
)(9
1
i
t
i
2
i
t
i
i =1
i =0
q
+ c RX
+U 3t
i
t
i
3
i =0
:
Microfit Version 4.1 .Eviews Version 5.0

17

=
= ln

= RY

= RX
= HC
= U
) (7

ln RY

) ( :
H : = = = 0 :

0 1 2 3
. H : 0 :
0 1 2 3
) . F (ln RY | ln RX , HC
RY
) (8

ln RX

H : = = = 0 :
0 1
2
3
. H : 0 :
0 1
2
3
. F (ln RX | ln RY , HC ) :
RX
) (9 HC t
H : = = = 0 :

2
3
. H : 0 :
0 1
2
3
. F (HC | ln RY ,n RX ) :
HC

] ) (7
) [(9
) (
); .(Keong et al., 2005: 16; Chang et al., 2005: 123

18

) (7

3 2 .


1
1

.

:
] UECMs ) (7 ) [(9
Autoregressive Model Unrestricted Vector
. :
) Akaike (AIC; 1973 ) Schwarz (SC; 1978
) Hannan and Quinn (HQ; 1979
) Final Prediction Error (FPE ) .Akaike (1969
2 .

] 1 ).[(2
) :(2

HQC

SC

AIC

-3.068445
-2.921407
-3.053829
*-3.809551
*-3.221401
*-3.751088
-3.771461
-2.742198
-3.669150
* .

FPE

9.34e-06
*4.57e-06
5.40e-06

0
1
2

UECMs
) .(OLS
General to Specific
t
).(Tang, 2002: 10

19

) Wald .(F-
F
F )(
) .Pesaran et al. (2001 F-
:
) (
] ) .[I(0
] ) .[ I(1

]).[I(1
F-

, .
F -
.

F -
.
.
) I(1

F - .
) I(0

20

F -
).(Keong et al., 2005: 15
) (3 .ARDL
:

.1 F- (ln RY | ln RX , HC ) = 24.837

RY

.(6.36) % 1

(ln RX | ln RY , HC ) = 5.121

RX

.(4.85) % 5

t

ln RY

ln RX .

.2 (HC | ln RY ,n RX ) = 3.814

HC

.(5.15) % 1
.
HC .
t
) :(3
)(ARDL

P-value
0.000

F-
24.837

0.019

5.121

0.043

3.814

)( F- k = 2


])[I (0
])[I (1
6.36
4.85
4.14

5.15
3.79
3.17

) FRY (ln RY | ln RX , HC
) FRX (ln RX | ln RY , HC
) FHC (HC | ln RY ,n RX

1%
5%
10 %

:
:Pesaran et al., 2001: 300, Table CI (iii) Case III with unrestricted intercept and no
trend
*** **.% 1 * .% 5 .% 10
- k - . ARDL .SC

21

3.4 ARDL

ln RY t ln RX t

ARDL ( p ,q ,q
1

p
q
+ b ln RX
ln RY t = a + b ln RY
0 i =1 1i
t -i i =0 2i
t -i
)(10
q
+ b HC +U 1t
t -i
i =0 3i
p
q
ln RX t = + ln RX
+ ln RY
0 i =1 1i
t -i i =0 2i
t -i
)(11
q
+ HC +U 2t
t -i
i =0 3i

) ( p

) ( q SC

ARDL ( p ,q ,q
1

SC

.
:
.1 Lagrange
]).Multiplier Test of Residual [Breush-Godfrey (BG
.2 Autoregressive
).Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH
.3 ]).[Jarque-Bera (JB
.4
]).[Ramsey (RESET

) (2 )ARDL (1,1,1
SC

ln RY .

22

) (3 ) ARDL (2,1,1 SC

ln RX . :

BG LM .
ARCH
Homoscedasticity .
JB
.
RESET
.

. )(4
) ARDL (1,1,1 SC

ln RY . ) (5

) ARDL (2,1,1 SC

ln RX . :

.
% 1

% 0.612 .

.

% 1
% .1.596 .

.
% 1
% 0.126 .

.

23

) :(4
) ARDL (1,1,1 ) SC ( ln RY :
P-value
***0.000

0.612

**0.045

0.058

***0.003

8.384

ln RX t
HC t

:
*** ** .% 1 .% 5

) :(5
) ARDL (2,1,1 ) SC :
P-value
***0.003

1.596

*0.079

0.126

( ln RX

ln RY t
HC t

-16.433
**0.036
*** : ** .% 1 * .% 5 .% 10

4.4
)ECM
ln RY

ARDL

(ARDLt

ln RX

HC
t
) ARDL ( p ,q ,q ) (10 ).(11
t

ln RY . ln RX
t

p
q
ln RY t = a + b ln RY + b ln RX
0 i =1 1i
t -i i =0 2i
t -i
)(12
q
+ b HC + 1ECT 1t 1 +U 1t
t -i
i =0 3i
p
q
ln RX t = + ln RX
+
ln RY
0 i =1 1i
t -i i
t -i
=0 2i
)(13
q
+ HC + ECT 2t 1 +U 2t
t -i
i =0 3i
:

24

= ECT 1 ) .(10

) .(U 1

= ECT 2 ) .(11
t

) .(U 2

=
.
) ( t 1 ) .(t
.
) (12
b3 b2 b1 .
1 .
) (4
) ARDL (1,1,1 SC

. ln RY )(5

ARDL
) (1,1,1 SC
t

. ln RX ) _ Tang (2002

t
.
:
ECT 1t 1 ECT 2t 1
.

ln RX .

ln RY

25

ln RY

ECT 1 .-0.197 % 20
t 1
.

ln RX

ECT 2 .-0.130 % 13
t 1

.

.

.

) (12 ) .(13
0.967 0.961 .

: ARCH
.
ARDL .
.

5.4 ARDL-ECM

) Pesaran and Pesaran (1997
ARDL
.
) :(Brown et al., 1975

)(CUSUM

Residual

Cumulative Sum of

Recursive

Cumulative Sum of Squares of

). Recursive Residuals (CUSUMSQ

26

ARDL

CUSUM CUSUMSQ

.% 5
.

) (1 ) (2 )(12
) (13
- -
.% 5
) :(1 CUSUM CUSUMSQ
ARDL ) :

( ln RY

12
8
4
0
-4
-8
2005

2004

2003

2002

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

5% Significance

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

-12
1992

CUSUM

1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0

2001

2000

1999

1998

CUSUM of Squares
5% Significance

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

-0.5
1992

27

) :(2 CUSUM CUSUMSQ

ARDL ) ( ln RX :
t

12
8
4
0
-4
-8
2005

2004

2003

2002

2005

2004

2003

2002

2000

2001

1999

5% Significance

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

-12
1993

CUSUM

1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0

2000

2001

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

-0.5
1993

CUSUM of Squares
5% Significance

ARDL ln RY t
ln RX
t

.
6.4 ARDL-ECM

) .Granger (1969

ARDL

.
. ARDL

28

) (12 ).(13


ARDL :

p
q
HCt = c + + c HC + c ln RY
0 i =1 1i
t -i i =0 2i
t -i
)(14
q
+ c RX
+U 3t
3
i
t
i
i =0
)Kar and :
:(Pentecost, 2000: 10; Al-Yousif, 1999: 7
.1
:

2 ) Wald

F or

& .(/ .

) (F or /& 2

(
)

.

.

.
.2

29

) ( ECT t 1 -
.t

. ) (6
Granger .
) :(6 Granger

t-
)(P-value

:Wald(P-value) F-

ECT t 1

HC t

ln RX t

ln RY t

-0.197
***)(0.000

0.004
)(0.949

185.545
***)(0.000

-0.130
***)(0.000

1.282
)(0.310

163.951
***)(0.000

ln RX t

28.888
***)(0.000

12.932
***)(0.001

HC t

ln RY t

*** .%1

:
.1 ) :(

) () .(

.

30

.2 ) :( )(
.

) .(

.2005 -1986 (1) :







Zivot and

) (2) .Andrews (1992

The Autoregressive Distributed Lag

) (ARDL) Approach

The Bounds Testing

(3) .(Approach
.ARDL
(1) :

(2) . ) :(
) .(

(3) . ) :( )(
) .(
.

31

. Narayan and Smyth

) (2004a ) Chuang (2000

.

.

Chen

) Chuang (2000





) (2007

.



.
______________________________

) :(1 ) Zivot Andrews (ZA; 1992

t ,ADF

T
b

t ,ADF

-4.543

2001

-3.660

1993

**-5.337

2001

*-4.328

2002

***-5.576

***-6.598

1998

-3.158

2002

-2.735

*-4.831

1997

***-4.988

1998

***-5.257

1998

***-5.452

1998

-5.57
-5.08

-4.93
-4.42

T
b

T
b

t ,ADF

***-5.739

1998
1998
1997

ln RY t
ln RX t
HCt

ln RY t
***-6.304
-5.34
-4.80

1999

ln RX t
HCt

1%
5%

32
10 %
-4.58
-4.11
-4.82
*** : ** .% 1 * .% 5 .% 10
- . k = 0

) :(2 )ARDL (1,1,1

) SC ( ln RY :
t

P-value
***0.000

0.787

***0.000

0.551

ln RX t

***0.000

-0.421

0.887

-0.8776e-3

0.107

-0.012

ln RX t 1
HC t
HC t 1

***0.000
***0.000

1.788
506.005

ln RY t 1

)F(5,12
R2

0.995
+
)BG LM (2) ARCH (1
)RESET (1
)F(1,11
)F(1,16
F(1,11) =0.103
=0.095
=0.651
)(0.754
)(0.768
)(0.432
*** : .% 1
+ ).(p-value

)JB(2

) 2 =0.238 (0.888

) :(3 )ARDL (2,1,1

) SC ( ln RX :
t

P-value
***0.000

0.729

0.136

0.117

ln RX t 2

***0.000

1.637

ln RY t

***0.000

-1.391

0.468

-0.008

**0.022

0.028

ln RY t 1
HC t
HC t 1

**0.022
***0.000

-2.532
390.233

ln RX t 1

)F(6,11
R2

0.995
)RESET (1
F(1,10) =3.866
)(0.078

+
)BG LM (2) ARCH (1
)F(1,10
)F(1,16
=0.161
=0.110

)JB(2

) 2 =0.993 (0.609

33
)(0.697
)(0.745
*** : ** .% 1 .% 5
+ ).(p-value

) :(4
) ARDL (1,1,1 ) SC ( ln RY :
t

P-value
***0.000

0.548

0.228

0.031

0.949

0.0004

***0.000

-0.197

ln RX t

ln RX t 1
HC t
ECT t 1

0.967
)RESET (1
F(1,13) =0.007
)(0.933

+
)BG LM (2) ARCH (1
)F(2,12
)F(1,15
=0.648
=0.785
)(0.540
)(0.390

R2
)JB(2

) 2 =0.658 (0.720

:
*** .% 1
+ ).(p-value

) :(5
) ARDL (2,1,1 ) SC ( ln RX :
t

P-value
***0.000

1.606

**0.047

-0.198

0.259

-0.0088

0.195

0.009

***0.000

-0.130

ln RY t

ln RY t 1
HC t
HC t 1
ECT t 1

0.961
)RESET (1
F(1,12) =3.162
)(0.106

:
*** .% 1

+
)BG LM (2) ARCH (1
)F(2,11
)F(1,15
=0.065
=1.140
)(0.355
)(0.820

R2
)JB(2

) 2 =1.278 (0.528

34

.% 5 **
.(p-value) +

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Pakistan,
1960-2003,
http://www.cf.ac.uk/carbs/econ/workingpapers/papers/E2007_22.pdf
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________ and Lee, J. W. (1993), International Comparisons of Educational
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Baumol, W. (1986), Productivity Growth, Convergence and Welfare: What the
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