Thayer Consultancy

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Background Briefing: Vietnam: Rising Public Discontent? Carlyle A. Thayer January 13, 2012

[clientnamedeleted] Q1.WhatisyourassessmentofpublicdiscontentinVietnam?Isitpossibletosayit isrising,duetoseriousproblemsasinflationandcorruption? ANSWER: Inflation and corruption are two separate issues. There is widespread upsetinVietnambytheemergingmiddleclassaboutthegovernmentsinabilityto control inflation. Inflation lowers the value of the dong and thus the ability of the new middle class to fund overseas education for their children and to pay for importedgoods.Thegovernmentsresponsetoinflationhasledtoadecreaseinthe import of luxury goods making them scarce and more expensive in Vietnam. But inflationhasbeenanissuesince2008.Sincethenewmiddleclassbenefitsfromthe systemoveralltheywillkeeptheirangerincheck. Corruption is both endemic and widespread in Vietnam. Everyone no matter what their socioeconomic standing is affected by this issue. Corruption is a cancer undermining the legitimacy of the Vietnam Communist Party. The party Secretary General Nguyen Phu Trong recently drew attention to this issue but similar comments were made ten years ago prior to the ninth party congress. Corruption undermines the partys claim to moral authority. There are sporadic acts of public resistance to corruption and even an increase in assaults on the police. There is widespread cynicism over the fact that only small fry are arrested and tried while higherupsarenevertouched. Q2.WehaveseenlastyearwhattheinternetcoulddoduringtheArabSpring.The Internet is under control in Vietnam, but how long do you think the Party can maintainit? ANSWER:In2006thelargestprodemocracynetworkinVietnamshistoryemerged. IttookthenameBloc8406fromitsfoundingdate8thApril2006.Thisnetworkwas createdontheinternetandwasgeographicallydispersedthroughoutVietnam.This network was successfully repressed. The party and state have instituted numerous measures to control the internet such as making the owners of cyber cafes responsible for the actions of their customers. Government agents have launched netbotattacksusingmalwareonwebsitesandhaveengagedinaggressivehacking. Buttheseonlyaffectthehighprofilebloggers.

2 The government is trying to expand the internet throughout Vietnam to aid development.InJuneAugustsocialnetworkingsiteswereusedtomobilizestudents and others to conduct eleven antiChina rallies over a period of twelve weeks. VietnamhassteppedupitscrackdownonbloggersandactivistssinceJanuary2011. The internet is not really under control in Vietnam because new bloggers take the placeofthosewhoarearrested.