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IP RESEARCH REPORT

IGNITION PROBABILITY REVIEW, MODEL DEVELOPMENT AND


LOOK-UP CORRELATIONS

IP RESEARCH REPORT
IGNITION PROBABILITY REVIEW, MODEL DEVELOPMENT AND
LOOK-UP CORRELATIONS

January 2006

Published by
ENERGY INSTITUTE, LONDON
The Energy Institute is a professional membership body incorporated by Royal Charter 2003
Registered charity number 1097899

The Energy Institute gratefully acknowledges the financial contributions towards the scientific and
technical programme from the following companies:
BG Group
BHP Billiton Limited
BP Exploration Operating Co Ltd
BP Oil UK Ltd
Chevron
ConocoPhillips Ltd
ENI
ExxonMobil International Ltd
Kuwait Petroleum International Ltd

Maersk Oil North Sea UK Limited


Murco Petroleum Ltd
Nexen
Shell UK Oil Products Limited
Shell U.K. Exploration and Production Ltd
Statoil (U.K.) Limited
Talisman Energy (UK) Ltd
Total E&P UK plc
Total UK Limited

Copyright 2006 by the Energy Institute, London:


The Energy Institute is a professional membership body incorporated by Royal Charter 2003.
Registered charity number 1097899, England
All rights reserved
No part of this book may be reproduced by any means, or transmitted or translated into a machine language without the
written permission of the publisher.
The information contained in this publication is provided as guidance only and while every reasonable care has been taken
to ensure the accuracy of its contents, the Energy Institute cannot accept any responsibility for any action taken, or not
taken, on the basis of this information. The Energy Institute shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage which
may arise from the use of any of the information contained in any of its publications.
The above disclaimer is not intended to restrict or exclude liability for death or personal injury caused by own negligence.

ISBN 978 0 85293 454 8


Published by the Energy Institute
Further copies can be obtained from Portland Customer Services, Commerce Way,
Whitehall Industrial Estate, Colchester CO2 8HP, UK. Tel: +44 (0) 1206 796 351
email: sales@portland-services.com

CONTENTS
Page
Foreword..vii
Acknowledgements.......ix
Overview....xi
SECTION 1 - Phase 1 Report - Ignition probability review and model development .................................... 1
1.1
Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 1
1.2
Literature review ....................................................................................................................................... 2
1.2.1
Review of historical ignition probability data............................................................................. 2
1.2.2
Ignition models and related issues .............................................................................................. 6
1.3
HCR OIR12 ignition event analysis........................................................................................................ 13
1.3.1
OIR12 2001 ignition data.......................................................................................................... 13
1.3.2
OIR12 2000 leak and ignitions data.......................................................................................... 17
1.3.3
OIR12 analysis - Summary ....................................................................................................... 24
1.4
Ignition modelling and related topics...................................................................................................... 24
1.4.1
Gas dispersion within plant areas.............................................................................................. 24
1.4.2
Gas dispersion outside plant areas ............................................................................................ 26
1.4.3
Ignition probability methods..................................................................................................... 27
1.4.4
Self-ignition .............................................................................................................................. 30
1.4.5
Ignition modelling and dispersion summary............................................................................. 31
1.5
Review conclusions and implications for ignition modelling ................................................................. 32
1.5.1
Model approach ........................................................................................................................ 32
1.5.2
Ignition data and simple probability correlations...................................................................... 32
1.5.3
Ignition timing and fire-explosion probabilities for use in QRA .............................................. 33
1.5.4
Release source modelling.......................................................................................................... 34
1.5.5
Control factors .......................................................................................................................... 35
1.5.6
Ignition timing and explosion probabilities Model implications ........................................... 35
1.5.7
Categorisation of fluid types ..................................................................................................... 36
1.5.8
Model development Initial concept........................................................................................ 36
1.6
Model description.................................................................................................................................... 38
1.6.1
Model structure ....................................................................................................................................... 38
1.6.2
Input data .................................................................................................................................. 41
1.6.3
Model output............................................................................................................................. 50
1.6.4
Model process detailed description........................................................................................... 51
1.6.5
Workbook model overview....................................................................................................... 63
1.7
Model benchmarking............................................................................................................................... 64
1.8
Model conclusions and recommendations .............................................................................................. 66
1.9
Issues for future work.............................................................................................................................. 66
Annex
Annex 1.A References........................................................................................................................................ 67
Figures
Figure 1.1 Simple correlation of fraction of liquid not raining out vs. discharge pressure based on RELEASE
model estimates ................................................................................................................................... 10
Figure 1.2 Simple correlation of fraction of liquid not raining out vs. discharge pressure based on cyclohexane
test data................................................................................................................................................ 11
Figure 1.3 Cumulative event based ignition probabilities - based on average release rate................................... 21
Figure 1.4 Cumulative event based ignition probabilities - based on maximum release rate ............................... 21
Figure 1.5 Ratio between maximum (initial) release rate and averaged release rate for 294' cut of OIR12 data 22
Figure 1.6 Cumulative event distribution for 294 data cut................................................................................. 22
Figure 1.7 Gas build-up JIP workbook - Output for selected typical module configurations .............................. 25
Figure 1.8 A comparison of different indicators for gas dispersion...................................................................... 26

Figure 1.9 A comparison of ignition probabilities assigned by various models for some selected scenarios....... 30
Figure 1.10 Ignition modelling Areas.................................................................................................................... 37
Figure 1.11 Ignition modelling Areas.................................................................................................................... 39
Figure 1.12 Alternative ignition modelling Areas approach ................................................................................. 39
Figure 1.13 Ignition model structure ..................................................................................................................... 40
Figure 1.14 Ignition modelling Areas.................................................................................................................... 44
Figure 1.15 Ignition modelling Areas Cloud areas............................................................................................. 45
Figure 1.16 Alternative ignition modelling Areas approach ................................................................................. 45
Figure 1.17 Gas build-up JIP workbook correlation ............................................................................................. 57
Figure 1.18 Liquid release aerosol formation correlation ..................................................................................... 59
Figure 1.19 Release maximum vs. average release rate Decay factor................................................................ 61
Figure 1.20 Model comparison Gas releases...................................................................................................... 65
Figure 1.21 Model comparison Liquid releases ................................................................................................. 65
Tables
Table 1.1 Analysis of offshore ignition sources ...................................................................................................... 2
Table 1.2 Generic ignition probabilities .................................................................................................................. 2
Table 1.3 Generic explosion probabilities (given ignition) ..................................................................................... 2
Table 1.4 Ignition sources for industrial plant......................................................................................................... 3
Table 1.5 Generic ignition probabilities (CMPT).................................................................................................... 3
Table 1.6 Generic ignition probabilities (Cox et al) ................................................................................................ 3
Table 1.7 Ignition delay probabilities...................................................................................................................... 3
Table 1.8 Judged ignition probabilities for a range of offshore scenarios............................................................... 4
Table 1.9 Proposed generic ignition probabilities for typical offshore hydrocarbon releases................................. 4
Table 1.10 Suggested method for assigning ignition timings.................................................................................. 5
Table 1.11 Ignition timings - Based on an analysis of LPG releases ...................................................................... 5
Table 1.12 Probability of explosion given ignition - Based on offshore data ......................................................... 5
Table 1.13 Onshore gas pipeline leak ignition probabilities ................................................................................... 6
Table 1.14 Onshore gasoline pipeline leak ignition probabilities ........................................................................... 6
Table 1.15 Ignition source densities (per hectare)................................................................................................... 8
Table 1.16 Ignition parameters for area based model ........................................................................................... 9
Table 1.17 Estimated rain-out fractions for flammable liquid releases (RELEASE model) ................................... 9
Table 1.18 Analysis of all ignitions by cause and source of ignition .................................................................... 13
Table 1.19 Analysis of OIR12 MAH related ignition events ................................................................................ 14
Table 1.20 Analysis of OIR12 database large releases.......................................................................................... 17
Table 1.21 Analysis of OIR12 database large releases - more bands.................................................................... 18
Table 1.22 Analysis of OIR12 database large releases - 499 events by maximum and average release rate
basis ................................................................................................................................................. 19
Table 1.23 Analysis of OIR12 database large releases - comparison with cumulative basis ................................ 20
Table 1.24 Analysis of large liquid releases.......................................................................................................... 23
Table 1.25 Analysis of OIR12 database - Ignition timing..................................................................................... 23
Table 1.26 Analysis of OIR12 database - Ignited events ...................................................................................... 24
Table 1.27 CHAOS based model from DNV TDIM JIP - Appendix G - Gives average gas concentration in
module vs. time ................................................................................................................................... 25
Table 1.28 DNV TDIM - Recommended ignition source densities ...................................................................... 27
Table 1.29 Application of DNV TDIM ignition sources to a typical module ....................................................... 27
Table 1.30 Selected results for a typical offshore module based on the WS Atkins on-site ignition
methodology ........................................................................................................................................ 28
Table 1.31 Comparison of ignition probabilities assigned by various models to selected scenarios .................... 29
Table 1.32 Self-ignition probabilities.................................................................................................................... 31
Table 1.33 Generic ignition probabilities (Cox et al and Revised)..................................................................... 32
Table 1.34 Ignition timings overview.................................................................................................................... 33
Table 1.35 Relative incidences of ignited events .................................................................................................. 33
Table 1.36 Pool spill sizes ..................................................................................................................................... 35
Table 1.37 IP fluid categories................................................................................................................................ 36
Table 1.38 Relationship between IP fluid categories and petroleum classes ........................................................ 36
Table 1.39 Ignition model input data..................................................................................................................... 41
Table 1.40 Ignition area types set up in model...................................................................................................... 43
Table 1.41 Release types - Data entry ................................................................................................................... 49

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Table 1.42 Model output data and format ............................................................................................................. 50


Table 1.43 Model output information.................................................................................................................... 51
Table 1.44 Ignition source densities for onshore offsite areas .............................................................................. 53
Table 1.45 Typical ignition source densities for onshore plant............................................................................. 53
Table 1.46 Hot work ignition characteristics......................................................................................................... 54
Table 1.47 DNV TDIM - Recommended ignition source densities ...................................................................... 54

SECTION 2 - Phase 2 Report Look-up correlations..................................................................................... 69


2.1
Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 69
2.2
Model description.................................................................................................................................... 69
2.2.1
Model structure ......................................................................................................................... 69
2.2.2
Input data .................................................................................................................................. 71
2.3
Phase 2 overview and representative scenarios....................................................................................... 73
2.4
General basis and assumptions................................................................................................................ 74
2.4.1
Fluids considered ...................................................................................................................... 74
2.4.2
Release rates.............................................................................................................................. 75
2.4.3
Windspeed ................................................................................................................................ 76
2.4.4
Liquid pool sizes ....................................................................................................................... 76
2.4.5
Onsite offices and administration areas .................................................................................... 76
2.4.6
Liquid only spills No flashing or atomisation........................................................................ 76
2.4.7
Pressures ................................................................................................................................... 77
2.4.8
Module geometry and orientation factor................................................................................... 77
2.4.9
Areas 2 and 3 Confinement.................................................................................................... 78
2.4.10 Storage area ignition parameters............................................................................................... 80
2.5
Scenario specific configurations ............................................................................................................. 80
2.5.1
Onshore pipeline (cross-country).............................................................................................. 80
2.5.2
Onshore small plant .................................................................................................................. 81
2.5.3
Onshore large plant ................................................................................................................... 81
2.5.4
Onshore storage ........................................................................................................................ 82
2.5.5
Offshore NUI ............................................................................................................................ 83
2.5.6
Offshore FPSO.......................................................................................................................... 83
2.5.7
Offshore wellhead module ........................................................................................................ 84
2.5.8
Offshore process or compression module................................................................................. 84
2.5.9
Offshore riser ............................................................................................................................ 84
2.5.10 Offshore release engulfing the platform ................................................................................... 85
2.6
Ignition modelling results........................................................................................................................ 88
2.6.1
Results presentation .................................................................................................................. 88
2.6.2
Onshore pipelines ..................................................................................................................... 88
2.6.3
Onshore plant............................................................................................................................ 88
2.6.4
Onshore storage ........................................................................................................................ 88
2.6.5
Offshore NUIs........................................................................................................................... 88
2.6.6
Offshore FPSOs ........................................................................................................................ 88
2.6.7
Offshore risers........................................................................................................................... 89
2.6.8
Offshore releases engulfing the platform.................................................................................. 89
2.6.9
Results discussion ..................................................................................................................... 89
2.7
Look-up correlations ............................................................................................................................... 91
2.7.1
Look-up correlation characteristics........................................................................................... 91
2.7.2
Look-up correlation selection ................................................................................................... 92
2.8
Ignition timing and outcome probability distributions .......................................................................... 100
2.8.1
Modelling ignitions in QRA ................................................................................................... 100
2.8.2
Ignition timing ........................................................................................................................ 100
2.8.3
Ignition outcome distribution.................................................................................................. 101
2.8.4
Ignition timing vs. ignited event outcomes ............................................................................. 102
2.8.5
Addressing ignition outcomes in QRA ................................................................................... 103
Annexes
Annex 2.A References...................................................................................................................................... 106

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Annex 2.B Ignition modelling results figures and look-up correlation figures for scenario specific
configurations ................................................................................................................................. 107
Figures
Figure 2.1 Ignition modelling Areas................................................................................................................... 70
Figure 2.2 Ignition model structure .................................................................................................................... 70
Figure 2.3 Model results for onshore pipeline Oil......................................................................................... 108
Figure 2.4 Model results for onshore pipeline LPG ...................................................................................... 108
Figure 2.5 Model results for onshore pipeline Gas ....................................................................................... 109
Figure 2.6 Model results for small onshore plant Open plant area................................................................ 109
Figure 2.7 Model results for small onshore plant Confined/ congested plant area........................................ 110
Figure 2.8 Model results for large onshore plant Open plant area ................................................................ 110
Figure 2.9 Model results for large onshore plant Confined/ congested plant area ........................................ 111
Figure 2.10 Model results for onshore tank farm LPG Passive dispersion ................................................ 111
Figure 2.11 Model results for onshore tank farm Oil Passive dispersion................................................... 112
Figure 2.12 Model results for onshore tank farm LPG Release treated as momentum jet ......................... 112
Figure 2.13 Model results for onshore tank farm Oil Release treated as momentum jet............................ 113
Figure 2.14 Model results for offshore process module Oil releases ............................................................ 113
Figure 2.15 Model results for offshore wellhead Oil releases....................................................................... 114
Figure 2.16 Model results for offshore NUI..................................................................................................... 114
Figure 2.17 Model results for offshore FPSO process module ........................................................................ 115
Figure 2.18 Model results for offshore FPSO process module behind transverse wall................................. 115
Figure 2.19 Model results for offshore process module Gaseous releases.................................................... 116
Figure 2.20 Model results for offshore wellhead and compression modules Gaseous releases .................... 116
Figure 2.21 Model results for offshore riser Release near to edge of installation ......................................... 117
Figure 2.22 Model results for offshore riser Release away from edge of installation................................... 117
Figure 2.23 Model results for offshore release engulfing platform.................................................................. 118
Figure 2.24 Cox, Lees and Ang ignition probabilities for comparison ............................................................ 118
Figure 2.25 Look-up vs. model results for offshore NUI................................................................................. 119
Figure 2.26 Look-up vs. model results for offshore process module Gas ..................................................... 119
Figure 2.27 Look-up vs. model results for offshore process module Gas Congested or mechanically
ventilated module.......................................................................................................................... 120
Figure 2.28 Look-up vs. model results for offshore risers ............................................................................... 120
Figure 2.29 Look-up vs. model results for offshore FPSO no wall............................................................... 121
Figure 2.30 Look-up vs. model results for offshore FPSO with transverse wall .......................................... 121
Figure 2.31 Look-up vs. model results for offshore release engulfing platform .............................................. 122
Figure 2.32 Look-up vs. model results for offshore process module Liquid ................................................ 122
Figure 2.33 Look-up vs. model results for onshore pipelines Gas/ LPG ...................................................... 123
Figure 2.34 Look-up vs. model results for onshore pipelines Liquid............................................................ 123
Figure 2.35 Look-up vs. model results for onshore small plant Gas/ LPG ................................................... 124
Figure 2.36 Look-up vs. model results for onshore small plant Liquid......................................................... 124
Figure 2.37 Look-up vs. model results for onshore large plant Gas/ LPG .................................................... 125
Figure 2.38 Look-up vs. model results for onshore large plant Liquid ......................................................... 125
Figure 2.39 Look-up vs. model results for onshore storage Gas/ LPG ......................................................... 126
Figure 2.40 Look-up vs. model results for onshore storage Liquid............................................................... 126
Figure 2.41 Look-up correlations (best fit) for onshore liquid releases ........................................................... 127
Figure 2.42 Look-up correlations (best fit) for onshore gas/LPG releases....................................................... 127
Figure 2.43 Look-up correlations (best fit) for offshore liquid releases........................................................... 128
Figure 2.44 Look-up correlations (best fit) for offshore gas releases............................................................... 128
Figure 2.45 Look-up correlations (best fit) for offshore engulfing release and riser release ........................... 129
Tables
Table 2.1 Ignition model input data.................................................................................................................... 71
Table 2.2 Ignition area types set up in model..................................................................................................... 73
Table 2.3 Release materials and properties ........................................................................................................ 75
Table 2.4 Release mass flow rates used.............................................................................................................. 75
Table 2.5 Scenarios pressures used .................................................................................................................... 78
Table 2.6 Offshore module f4 geometry and orientation factor assessment....................................................... 79
Table 2.7 Storage ignition parameters ................................................................................................................ 80
Table 2.8 Ignition probability scenario configurations....................................................................................... 86

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Table 2.9 Look-up correlation characteristics .................................................................................................... 93


Table 2.10 Look-up correlation selection guide................................................................................................. 96
Table 2.11 Ignition timings overview............................................................................................................... 101
Table 2.12 OIR 12 data ignition timings .......................................................................................................... 101
Table 2.13 OIR 12 data ignition outcome distribution by media ..................................................................... 102
Table 2.14 OIR 12 data ignition outcome distribution by leak severity........................................................... 102
Table 2.15 Plant ignition timings distribution .................................................................................................. 103
Table 2.16 Ignition source densities (per hectare)............................................................................................ 104
UKOOA ignition model workbook single scenario format
Worksheets
Read me
User guide
Results record
Summary
Area 1 plant area
Areas 2-4
Area 2 ign
Area 3 ign
Area 4 ign
Area 1 liquid
Area 2 liquid
Area 3 liquid
UKOOA ignition model workbook multirun format
Worksheets
Read me
User guide
Data file
Results record
Chart_all
Summary
Area 1 plant area
Areas 2-4
Area 2 ign
Area 3 ign
Area 4 ign
Area 1 liquid
Area 2 liquid
Area 3 liquid
Look-up correlations workbook
Worksheets
Read me
User guide
Examples
Look-up factors
Full test
Select
Chart select
Basis
Data
Chart_all
Chart_onsh_tank_pipe
Chart_onsh_plant
Chart_offsh

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FOREWORD
The probability of ignition of flammable releases from onshore and offshore installations is a key factor in
determining the risks such installations present to people, assets and the environment. Yet, data and practical
models available to enable assessors to assign suitable ignition probability distributions in quantified risk
analysis (QRA) have been lacking.
IP Ignition probability review, model development and look-up correlations provides the findings of a
United Kingdom Offshore Operators Association (UKOOA)/ Health and Safety Executive (HSE)/ Energy
Institute (EI) co-sponsored project undertaken by ESR Technology (formerly the Engineering Safety and Risk
Business of AEA Technology) to improve the modelling of ignition probabilities in onshore and offshore
installation QRAs. Specifically, the project reviewed current data and models, developed an ignition
probability model for assigning ignition probabilities in QRA, and developed a simple basis and guidance for
assigning ignition probabilities to generic scenarios.
Phase 1 of the project reviewed knowledge and research in the field of ignition probability estimation
in support of QRA. This was evaluated, together with the usefulness of the UK offshore industry hydrocarbon
release data, as a basis for developing an improved ignition probability model. The review concluded that the
commonly applied approach of adopting generic correlations based on the mass release rate for the probability
of ignition was overly simplistic, and may lead to unrealistic and very conservative estimates in some situations.
Further, some of the correlations in use do not reflect recent ignition probability data and knowledge.
An ignition probability model was developed that combined recent work on the dispersion of
flammable vapours in process areas with the identification of ignition characteristics in offshore and onshore
plant areas and other relevant onsite and offsite land use types. It has been benchmarked against historical
ignition probability data.
The model made available as a functional workbook provides a means to estimate the overall
ignition probability and an approximate time/ location distribution for specific release scenarios. It can also
provide an insight into the main ignition factors and allows sensitivity analysis and 'what-if' analysis, which
may help designers to change the plant layout or process conditions to reduce the ignition potential.
Recognising that the number of factors taken into account by the model means it may be too onerous to
apply for some risk assessments, Phase 2 of the project involved development of a series of simple, mass release
rate based, ignition probability look-up correlations for a selected range of representative onshore and offshore
plant and storage release scenarios. These correlations made available as a functional workbook provide
users with a simple and convenient introductory means to incorporate more appropriate ignition probability data
in many typical QRAs. Their scope includes liquid and vapour release correlations; in addition, two-phase
releases can be assessed by combining the liquid and vapour results. The look-up correlations are supported by
guidance on selecting the appropriate correlation to use in a given situation, and details of the underlying basis
and assumptions used in deriving them. Note that the full model should be run for complex scenarios or where
additional detail is required.
Some guidance is provided on ignition timing and estimating the likelihood of an explosion given
ignition.
Note that the model and look-up correlations are intended to assess the ignition potential of momentum
driven releases of hydrocarbons; however, they are not suited to the ignition probability assessment of
refrigerated liquefied gases, vaporising liquid pools, sub-sonic gas releases, or non-momentum driven releases,
such as those following catastrophic storage vessel failure.
IP Ignition probability review, model development and look-up correlations should be drawn to the
attention of safety practitioners, risk analysts and designers who need to determine or evaluate ignition
probabilities in QRA, such as where required for safety cases or safety reports.
The project sponsors believe that the model and look-up correlations provide a more appropriate means
for assigning ignition probabilities in QRA as they take better account of the release type and plant
characteristics, and results better align with historical data including the UK offshore industry hydrocarbon
release data. However, their use requires expert judgement and results should be used and interpreted with a
degree of caution, in particular where they are less conservative than former approaches. In addition, those
preparing or revising safety cases or safety reports should include details of pertinent assumptions and input
data that support the derived ignition probabilities.
The information contained in this IP Research Report is provided as guidance only and while every
reasonable care has been taken to ensure the accuracy of its contents, the Energy Institute, the project cosponsors, the developer and the technical representatives listed in the acknowledgements, cannot accept any

vii

responsibility for any action taken, or not taken, on the basis of this information. The Energy Institute shall not
be liable to any person for any loss or damage which may arise from the use of any of the information contained
in any of its publications.
The information contained in this IP Research Report may be reviewed from time to time. It would be
of considerable assistance in any future revision if users would send comments (e.g. on the performance of the
model and the look-up correlations) or suggestions for improvement to:
The Technical Department
Energy Institute
61 New Cavendish Street
London W1G 7AR
e: technical@energyinst.org.uk

viii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The project was undertaken by David Mansfield ESR Technology1 (formerly the Engineering Safety and Risk
Business of AEA Technology) and co-ordinated by a joint industry steering group drawn from the project
sponsors, petroleum operating companies and senior risk assessment consultants working in the field of onshore
and offshore QRA:
David Aberdeen
Brian Bain
Gerry Burke
Stephen Connolly
Howard Crowther
Tim Davenport
Alastair Gunn
Richard Jones
Robert Kyle
Colin Morgan
Mark Scanlon
Chris Venn

BP (Chairperson)
DNV
WS Atkins
Health and Safety Executive
Consultant
Shell
ExxonMobil
Acona
United Kingdom Offshore Operators Association
ESR Technology
Energy Institute
WS Atkins

The Institute wishes to record its appreciation of the work carried out by them and others who participated
during the technical review, for example by testing the draft deliverables.
Affiliations refer to the time of participation.
Co-sponsorship of this project by UKOOA and HSE is gratefully acknowledged.

ESR Technology, Whittle House, 410 The Quadrant, Birchwood Park, Warrington, WA3 6FW, United Kingdom.
Telephone +44 (0)1925 843400. Facsimile +44 (0)1925 843500

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OVERVIEW
This IP Research Report comprises the following project deliverables:

Phase 1 report: Ignition probability review and model development (provided as part of this Adobe
Acrobat document) (issued to project sponsors as AEAT/NOIL/27780001/001(R) Issue 1);
UKOOA ignition model workbooks (Version D1) in single scenario and multirun formats (provided as
Microsoft Excel workbooks) (issued to project sponsors as Ukooa_Ignition_model_D1 Version D1 and
Ukooa_Ignition_model_D1_multirun Version D1, respectively);
Phase 2 report: Look-up correlations (provided as part of this Adobe Acrobat document) (issued to
project sponsors as AEAT/NOIL/28129001/002(R) Issue 1);
Look-up correlations workbook (Version D1) (provided as a Microsoft Excel workbook) (issued to
project sponsors as Ukooa_pign_lookup_function_D1 Version D1).

Given that the project was carried out in two phases, some aspects of the Phase 1 report have been superseded
by the Phase 2 report. In addition, the workbooks and Phase 1 report refer to earlier versions of the workbooks.
Furthermore, the process of preparing the project deliverables for publication necessitated some editorial
changes to the versions issued to the project sponsors. Notwithstanding this, none of these issues should affect
the technical integrity of this IP Research Report.
Phase 1 report: Ignition probability review and model development
The Phase 1 report reviews knowledge and research in the field of ignition probability estimation in support of
QRA. This was evaluated, together with the usefulness of the UK offshore industry hydrocarbon release data, as
a basis for developing an improved ignition probability model. The review concluded that the commonly
applied approach of adopting generic correlations based on the mass release rate for the probability of ignition
was overly simplistic, and may lead to unrealistic and very conservative estimates in some situations. Further,
some of the correlations in use do not reflect more up-to-date historical ignition probability data and knowledge.
The report describes the basis for the ignition probability model, which combined recent work on the
dispersion of flammable vapours in process areas with the identification of ignition characteristics in offshore
and onshore plant areas and other relevant onsite and offsite land use types. The model has been structured to
consider the ignition of hydrocarbons within the immediate area where the leak occurs, and any additional
probability of ignition were the flammable vapour cloud or liquid to spread to adjacent areas or beyond.
The model can provide an insight into the main ignition factors and allows sensitivity analysis and
'what-if' analysis, which may help designers to change the plant layout or process conditions to reduce the
ignition potential.
The report also describes benchmarking of the model against historical ignition probability data.
UKOOA Ignition model workbooks
The ignition probability model, which is referred to as the UKOOA Ignition model is provided in single
scenario and multirun formats as Microsoft Excel workbooks (Version D1); the main difference being that the
latter also includes a macro to run the model for a variety of user defined scenarios and release rates.
The model input data consists of basic information on the release, the four Areas being considered
and their ignition characteristics, and a number of options for modelling the release and any subsequent
dispersion beyond the immediate area of release.
The model provides an estimate of the overall probability of ignition for the scenario, together with
contributions to the probability from vapour and liquid components of the release for each of the four Areas
represented in the model. It also provides an approximate time distribution of the ignition probability as it
spreads across them.
The Microsoft Excel workbooks also include user notes and change records.
Phase 2 report: Look-up correlations
Recognising that the number of factors taken into account by the ignition probability model means it may be too
onerous to apply for some risk assessments, the Phase 2 report describes use of the model to prepare a series of

xi

mass release rate based, ignition probability look-up correlations for a selected range of representative onshore
and offshore plant and storage release scenarios. These correlations provide users with a simple and convenient
introductory means to incorporate more appropriate ignition probability data in many typical QRAs. Their
scope includes liquid and vapour release correlations; in addition, two-phase releases can be assessed by
combining the liquid and vapour results. The look-up correlations are supported by guidance on selecting the
appropriate correlation to use in a given situation, and details of the underlying basis and assumptions used in
deriving them.
However, users are cautioned that there will be situations where the nature or complexity of the
scenario or the detail of the assessment means that the look-up correlations will not be sufficient. In these cases
the full model should be used to estimate the relevant ignition probabilities.
The Phase 2 report also offers guidance on ignition timing and estimating the likelihood of an
explosion given ignition. In addition, it describes several improvements which were made to the model,
primarily to provide additional error traps and to better represent plant storage area ignition characteristics.
Look-up correlations workbook
A Microsoft Excel workbook (Version D1) enables the ignition probability to be determined from the look-up
correlations using a simple cell function formula requiring mass flow rate and scenario type inputs, linked to a
visual basic module in the workbook.
The workbook also contains other worksheets with information and useful supporting features related
to the look-up correlations, such as a help guide to selecting the most suitable release type for a given situation,
and the basis and characteristics of the correlations. Its functionality enables users to view all look-up
correlation charts, those of similar types (e.g. onshore plant) or user-defined combinations.

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