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January 9, 2012

Good morning
A few things. First? Trading Silver last night was simply a few dollars higher, after counting in commissions. After that very small profit, I had five more trades if you can believe it. That's more commodity trades than I usually have in a week, so I'm going to have to keep an eye out that I don't devolve into over-trading. The first trade would translate into a $40.00 profit if it was translated to the mini-contract. Then I had a trade that would translate down to a $10.00 profit. Then we slammed lower around 11:48 pm e.s.t., and I lost what would be $100.00 loss for A.M.B. when the spread really opened up. Those are the sort of things that I really have to watch. That will really mess with my money management numbers since it's now my largest loss. Of course, at this point, we're still building our 'base sample set', and will have extreme values at each end of the spectrum. Usually, I walk away at that point. As I said, I'm going to keep a strict watch on myself at this point that I don't 'devolve'. I will state that I've noticed over the last two years that the commodity markets are much more 'accessible' than they once were. Therefore, it may not be a case of over-trading, and could simply be increased market accessibility. I will still try to monitor this to make sure that I don't standardize any deviations. Regardless, I then entered the last trade. It was late, so I set an O.C.O. Bracket; which I've been experimenting with for the last little bit on ThinkorSwim. I have to say, I really like it. It's a handy piece when it comes to trade management after reading the tape. The entrance would translate into $28.593 on the small contract. I exited at what would be $28.671. And then, so help me, if I didn't have another trade. For the mini, it would have been long at $28.676, with the OCO Bracket at 28.838 and the low end at 28.611. I ended up getting out at what on the small contract would have been 28.695. Way, way too many trades by that time. So I went to bed. Ok, the second point? A trade idea. Commodity Market #2 Live Cattle (LCG12 or /LEG2 on ThinkorSwim. There is also the possibility of COW Calls): I'm looking for a base to form in both Live Cattle and Lean Hogs. Of the two, I think that Live Cattle might be the stronger of the two. Actually, at this point, the base has already formed. So here are my thoughts at this point. Wait for the open in Live Cattle. I believe it's at 10:00 a.m. Wait five minutes. If 120.15 and 120.333 has not been broken through, and that support holds? If after five minutes, we begin to trade above 120.612? I would look to buy there. Or, rather than try to trade the futures, I could buy a COW April 29 Calls with

a 0.90 ($90) Stop Loss.. As of the close Friday, they were going for 1.40 ($140.00) a piece. A little light on the volume side, but if the base of support holds, I'd buy the option with the parameters and the break higher that I just mentioned. I'll wait to watch the open. Now for those numbers on the Silver trades Long 1 YIH2 from 28.835 to 28.844 PROFIT $1.96 on 1/8/2012 (including commissions of $7.04) Long 1 YIH2 from 28.671 to 28.711 PROFIT $32.96 on 1/8/2012 (including commissions of $7.04) Long 1 YIH2 from 28.760 to 28.770 PROFIT $2.96 on 1/8/2012 (including commissions of $7.04) Long 1 YIH2 from 28.652 to 28.550 LOSS $107.04 on 1/8/2012 (including commissions of $7.04) Long 1 YIH2 from 28.593 to 28.671 PROFIT $70.96 on 1/8/2012 (including commissions of $7.04) Long 1 YIH2 from 28.676 to 28.695 PROFIT $11.96 on 1/9/2012 (including commissions of $7.04)

Wow that's a lot of trades for commodity futures. Until next time, stay safe trade well, and remember that loving other people doesn't cost a dime.
Note: I, the author do not grant this work for wide distribution beyond any single individual subscriber as this publication is protected by U.S. And International Copyright laws. All rights reserved. No license is granted to the user except for the user's personal use. No part of this publication or its contents may be copied, downloaded, stored in a retrieval system, further transmitted or otherwise reproduced, stored, disseminated, transferred, or used, in any form or by any means except as permitted under the original subscription agreement or with prior written permission. The above statements should not be construed as an investment or trading recommendation. Aileron Market Balance is a newsletter that allows subscribers to look 'over my shoulder' as it were, for my own personal specific trading and investing ideas and thoughts for the next week. But they are only thoughts as of the moment of publication, and are subject to change. Any trades or investments that I discuss within this newsletter are simply my own thoughts regarding my own investing and trading outlook. Remember that entering any market is an individual decision. There is no guarantee that I will enter, or have entered any of the trading or investing ideas that I discuss in this newsletter; as larger accounts may require a different strategy as the ones presented here. This newsletter simply contains my trading and investing thoughts for the next week. I personally only enter any market after watching and reading the tape and I trade using money management principles. The losses in trading can be very real, and depending on the investment vehicle and market, can exceed your initial investment. I am not a licensed trading or investment adviser, or financial planner. But I do have 15 years of experience in trading and investing in these markets. The Model Portfolio accounts are hypothetical accounts,with all of the inherent problems therein, which are used within this newsletter in an attempt to track the results of this newsletter, and is run for the education of other traders who should make their own decisions based off their own research, due diligence, and tolerance for risk. Any pictures used within this newsletter are believed to be public domain. Any charts that are displayed using the ThinkorSwim platform, and other pictures were obtained through Wikipedia's public domain policy.

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