11/01/2006 32-33 Western Mail djarman 12/01/2006 MAIL Jan 12

32

Western Mail

Thursday, 12 January 2006

Thursday, 12 January 2006

BUSINESS

Western Mail

33

BUSINESS
w w w. i c w a l e s . c o . u k / b u s i n e s s
Business Editor Sin Barry 029 2058 3656 Business Correspondent David Williamson 029 2058 3669

Firms lay down plans to tackle bird flu pandemic

A human form of bird flu could kill millions and devastate economies. David Williamson reports on what the business community is doing to stop a nightmare in its tracks
THE threat of a flu pandemic has forced some of Wales largest organisations to begin planning for a worst case scenario. Experts fear the H5N1 avian flu virus may soon mutate into one which can be easily transmitted between people. Government plans envisage a situation in which a quarter of the UK population about 15 million people may suffer flu. This would equate to 750,000 in Wales. Officials have estimated that 50,000 people could die across the UK, of which around 3,000 would be in Wales. The Admiral insurance group, the BBC and Cardiff University are among the bodies which have started devising strategies to cope with mass absences and disruption to basic infrastructure. This follows advice from the Confederation of British Industry that it is vital that companies have proper contingency plans in place to ensure they can ride out any eventuality, and a pandemic flu outbreak is clearly a potential risk. Jackie Miles, people services manager at Admiral, which employs 1,800 people in Cardiff and Swansea, is to attend a one day conference on the subject at the Royal College of Surgeons later this month. The company had explored how it would continue to function after a terrorist attack and is now contemplating the legal and financial implications of a virus outbreak. Ms Miles said, Quite honestly, we dont have a great deal of understanding, and what we have realised is the need to get that understanding. Kate McAuley, an analyst with the Control Risks Group and a speaker at the conference, said the impact of the SARS virus in 2002-03 demonstrated the devastating economic impact of a major health scare. She said, I was living in Singapore. There were 774 deaths out of 8,000 infections. That disease cost the East Asia region 1.2% of its GDP in a quarter. If the disease does become human-to-human, people are going to become much more anxious. Say it comes to Vietnam youre not going to go there anymore. Businesses are going to stop sending their staff there. Small businesses, she said, also needed to plan. There are things people can do like understand how this affects their business, rather than saying, Everyones going to die, which is simply not going to happen. Companies are exploring basic issues such as whether healthy relatives of an infected person could be told not to come to work, or whether employees could be banned from visiting areas affected by the pandemic. A BBC Wales spokesman said the corporation was not planning to introduce draconian measures. He said, No employer can lay down rules about what their staff do in their free time. Of course, Foreign Office advice is taken about where we send staff. There are issues the BBCs plans take into account which include making sure people can work from home, so we are not bringing groups of people into contact with each other. In Llandaff we have up to 1,000 people on the site, so thats something that would have to be taken into consideration. The BBC, he noted, would play a key role in providing health information but would have to cancel many of its programmes. He said, It would be likely organisations would be deterred from arranging events that would bring crowds together. Wed expect thered be restrictions on audience events and outside broadcasts. An Assembly Government spokeswoman said, Wales is signed up to the UK contingency plan. Everybody is preparing up to the hilt.

Is the world adequately prepared?

ACCORDING to the World Health Organisation, no. It warns, Despite an advance warning that has lasted almost two years, the world is ill-prepared to defend itself during a pandemic. WHO has urged all countries to develop preparedness plans, but only around 40 have done so. Around 30 countries are purchasing large quantities of antiviral drugs, but the manufacturer has no capacity to fill these orders immediately. On present trends, most developing countries will have no access to vaccines and antiviral drugs throughout the duration of a pandemic, it said

Peacocks to leave market on high note

CARDIFF-BASED high street chain Peacocks said its excellent trading continued yesterday after like-for-like sales rose 6.1% in the last three months of 2005. Strong sales of womenswear at Peacocks 446 stores and a healthy performance by perfume retailer The Fragrance Shop helped gross profits rise 7% on a like-for-like basis. The opening of new stores across all three of its main businesses boosted total sales by 12%. The news comes just days before Peacock Group will be taken private in a management buyout worth 404.4m. Shares in the London Stock Market listed company are expected to be delisted on January 17. In the nine months to December 31, the groups total sales were up 11.1%, building on the 12.2% improvement in the same period in 2004. Like-for-like sales and profits rose 4.4% and 6.4% respectively. At the Peacocks chain, which opened 10 new stores and completed a refurbishment programme during the period, likefor-like sales climbed 7.5% and gross profits grew 9.5%. The news was less bright at Bonmarche, where heavy discounting pushed the chains profits down 2.6% in the three months to the end of 2005. Bonmarches like-for-like sales were off slightly at 0.3% but the opening of seven new branches helped total sales rise 5.1%. The group which specialises in the value market said that the fairly high level of clearance at its 363 Bonmarche stores had hit margins but that stock levels were

Excellent trading has continued

now much lower than a year ago giving it more freedom in its buying strategy for the months ahead. Customers are also developing a nose for the groups rapidly expanding The Fragrance Shop where total sales rose 71.4% as the format was rolled out to 15 more locations over the quarter, bringing the portfolio to 83. Like-for-like sales were up 8.8%, with profits rising 10.4%. The growth is good news for the buyout team, including Peacock directors Richard Kirk, Keith Bryant and Neil Burns, who take a 43.3% stake in the company, backed by Goldman Sachs. Former chairman John Loverings investment vehicle Echelon and US hedge funds Och-Ziff and Perry Capital are the other backers in the deal set to go through in the next couple of weeks. Moreover, clothing retailer Matalan yesterday showed signs it had stemmed a sales decline despite challenging trading conditions over the festive period. A late surge in demand for knitwear and coats helped like-for-like sales recover to a 5.5% fall in the 10 weeks to January 7 from a 7.6% decline in the 19 weeks to the same date. The firm, based in Skelmersdale, Lancashire, said in a trading update, Clothing performance has strengthened relative to the early season, reflecting a later demand for seasonal products such as knitwear and coats.

Timeline
1997 March: Chickens start dying on a farm near Hong Kong May: Three-year-old Hong Kong boy dies. He is found to have the H5N1 bird flu virus November and December: Two young adults die in Hong Kong. 1.6m chickens are culled 2002 Summer: Hong Kong researchers are shocked to discover more than 500 different strains of flu virus. December: Ducks, geese and flamingoes begin to die in parks 2003 December: South Korea has first outbreak of bird flu 2004 January: Vietnam and Japan have H5N1 February: Poultry in China and Indonesia have the virus August: Bird flu in Malaysia September: Young woman dies in Thailand in the first recorded case of human-to-human transmission. Her daughter had died a week earlier from the virus. This was not a case of the virus mutating. The mother is thought to have contracted it by cradling her during the night of her death. October: Bengal tigers at Thailands Sriracha zoo die after being fed raw chicken 2005 February: Cambodia reports first human case, which is fatal July: Indonesia reports first human case. Russian poultry die from the virus August: Bird flu hits Kazakhstan October: The virus is confirmed in Turkey. Fishermen in Romania find dead ducks. Bird flu is found on a turkey farm in Greece, and then Croatia and Germany 2006 January: The virus has infected 15 Turks two children die.

TARGET AREA A patient receiving NLite procedure, available in the UK, which treats wrinkles, vascular lesions and acne

Welsh firm to sell skin treatment laser system in US

A LLANELLI-BASED company which engineers laser technology to deal with tattoos, acne and unwanted hair has received permission to sell one of its major systems in the United States. Chromogenex, which began as a spinout company from the University of Wales, Swansea, in 1986 saw its share price jump as a result of the announcement by
David Williamson Business Correspondent david.williamson@wme.co.uk

28.81% to 9.5p. The Food and Drug Administration has approved for sale its Chromolite hair treatment system, which is already being marketed to potential customers. The United States is the worlds biggest market for these products.

Managing director Les Russell said, This is a good day for us. The company has 34 staff and floated on the Alternative Investment Market on June 20. A second system, the NLite, is already available in the United Kingdom. It is used to treat acne;

the condition is the focus of a $5bn market. The NLite also treats wrinkles and vascular lesions. A further product, the Qlite, is a tattoo removal device. The companys chief executive is Peter McGuinness, the founder of the Skin Health Spa company, which has clinics in London, Manchester and Birmingham.

SAFETY MEASURE A worker collects chickens for vaccination in Sukabumi, West Java, Indonesia

No mutation but virus spreads across Turkey in days

Anxiety about bird flu has escalated following the discovery of new cases in Turkey. John Farndon, author of Everything You Need to Know: Bird Flu, said, The outbreak in Turkey has really put the cat among the pigeons. Now its much closer to home. It hasnt just been an isolated outbreak. Its spread acrossTurkey in a matter of days from one end of the country to the other. The virus has yet to mutate into a form which can be transmitted between people, but Mr Farndon said, Its definitely the case most people are now saying when rather than if. I think this is why there has been such an extraordinary level of action by Western governments. The UK is perhaps the best prepared of Western governments. The USA is far behind, but back in November they announced a 7bn plan, which is the biggest spend on a non-existent disease. When asked when individuals should try to obtain anti-flu drugs, he said, My personal feeling is, dont, because, one, there is a high chance you will get a fake; two, even if you dont youll be taking that drug from someone who needs it; three, youll have no idea when youll need it if youre not a doctor you wont be able to identify the symptoms, and if you take it when youve just got winter flu youll have wasted it.

Alternative fuels Taylor Woodrow plan for M4 drivers cautious on future

SOUTH WALES is planning to have the first stretch of motorway in the UK with filling stations offering alternative fuels. Tomorrow will see the launch of an industry-led steering group to develop the project framework for Wales. The group, chaired by Jim Reardon of Corus, includes key representatives from private and public sectors all with an interest in developing an economic alternative fuel infrastructure. The project forms part of an ambitious initiative to make Wales a key centre in the UK for the demonstration and development of alternative fuel technologies. The initial emphasis will be on investigating the practicalities of creating an alternative fuels corridor along the M4 in South Wales filling stations where these fuels could be commercially available. The steering group will identify technical issues associated with various alternative fuel types; establish market demand and develop a road map and implementation strategy for alternative fuels and technologies. The group will hold its inaugural meeting at Cwrt Bleddyn Hotel, near Usk. HOUSEBUILDER Taylor Woodrow remains cautious about prospects in the UK despite a pick-up in demand towards the end of last year. The group, which sells homes under the Bryant brand, said yesterday the market remained competitive and it was too early to forecast the outcome for 2006. While home completions were down 9.7% at 8,178 in 2005, Woodrow said it was able to offset the downturn through its operation in North America, where it achieved another year of record results. Woodrow said its decision to increase investment in North America paid off with an 8.2% rise in home completions to 3,932 with average selling prices rising by 21% to $453,000 (256,500). It forecast another strong year from the region, even though it expected some moderation in house price inflation in certain hotspots. In the UK market, Woodrow said the final quarter of 2005 was stronger than the same period a year earlier, leading to a 1% rise in orders to 411m. But with rivals increasingly turning to incentives to tempt buyers, Woodrow said the market remained competitive and that margin pressures remained.

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