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February 1, 2012
Sterlite Industries
Performance Highlights
BUY
CMP Target Price
3QFY11 % chg (yoy) 8,294 1,979 23.9 1,124 23.5 17.2 (123)bp 12.1 2QFY12 % chg (qoq) 10,134 2,482 24.5 1,022 1.1 (6.6) (187)bp 23.3
`119 `138
12 months
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
Base Metals 40,099 1.46 189/86 828793 1 17,301 5,236 STRL.BO STLT@IN
For 3QFY2012, Sterlite Industries (Sterlite) reported consolidated net sales growth of 23.5% yoy. However, subdued performance from the aluminium segment dragged the companys profitability. Adjusted PAT for the quarter grew by 12.1% yoy. We continue to maintain our Buy rating on the stock. Robust 3QFY2012 sales performance: Sterlites net sales increased by 23.5%
yoy to `10,246cr in 3QFY2012, above our estimate of `8,798cr. Net sales growth was driven by higher zinc sales volumes from the zinc segment (+36.9% yoy to `3,755cr) and the power segment (+346.7% yoy to `591cr).
Aluminium segment dents Sterlites profitability: EBIT of the copper and power
segments grew by 67.8% and 178.3% yoy to `326cr and `53cr, respectively. However, EBIT of the aluminium segment reported loss of `23cr in 3QFY2012 compared to EBIT of `119cr in 3QFY2011. As a result, Sterlites EBITDA grew by 17.2% yoy to `2,318cr. Sterlites associate, Vedanta Aluminium also reported loss of `893cr in 3QFY2012 (Sterlites share of loss `264cr) compared to loss of `347cr in 3QFY2011. Other income grew by 83.6% yoy to `877cr, significantly above our estimate. Thus, adjusted net profit grew by 12.1% yoy to `1,260cr, above our estimate of `771cr.
Outlook and valuation: We expect Sterlite to benefit from the expansion of zinc-lead smelting capacity during FY2012-13. Furthermore, Sterlites expansion in the silver-rich Sindesar Khurd mine should result in net profit growth of 16.9% in FY2013. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 2.7x FY2012E and 2.1x FY2013E EV/EBITDA, a significant discount to its five-year historical average of 7.1x. Hence, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock with an SOTP-based target price of `138.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 53.2 8.9 12.4 25.5
3m (1.0)
(3.3)
1yr (4.0)
(27.7)
3yr 87.3
72.8
FY2010 24,501 15.9 3,744 5.8 11.9 25.7 10.1 1.1 12.0 11.8 1.0 4.1
FY2011 30,248 23.5 5,043 34.7 14.3 26.0 8.3 1.0 12.9 11.5 1.0 3.7
FY2012E 40,331 33.3 5,309 5.3 15.8 24.2 7.6 0.9 12.1 11.3 0.6 2.7
FY2013E 47,480 17.7 6,205 16.9 18.5 24.0 6.5 0.8 12.7 11.5 0.5 2.1
Bhavesh Chauhan
Tel: 022- 39357600 Ext: 6821 bhaveshu.chauhan@angelbroking.com
3QFY12 10,246 4,921 48.0 1,057 10.3 415 4.1 1,592 15.5 7,985 77.9 57.5 2,318 22.6 157 458 877 (425) 2,155 21.0 505 23.4 1,650 920 1,260
3QFY11 8,294 4,409 53.2 562 6.8 258 3.1 1,125 13.6 6,354 76.6 38.1 1,979 23.9 71 249 478 (29) 2,133 25.7 421 19.8 1,711 1,101 1,124
2QFY12 10,134 4,821 47.6 1,057 10.4 397 3.9 1,439 14.2 7,714 76.1 61.9 2,482 24.5 356
%qoq 1.1 2.1 0.0 4.5 10.7 3.5 (7.1) (6.6) (55.8) 2.8 46.8 (4.2) 0.1 (5.4) (7.8) 23.3
445 597 (30) 2,248 22.2 505 22.5 1,744 998 1,022
February 1, 2012
Segmental performance
Copper segments EBIT increases by 67.8% yoy
During 3QFY2012, copper cathode production at the Tuticorin smelter increased by 6.9% yoy to 87k tonnes, while mined metal from the Australian mine increased by 50.7% yoy to 6k tonnes. Thus, revenue for the copper segment increased by 10.9% yoy to `5,130cr. Copper TC/RCs increased by 42.6% yoy to USc15.9/lb. The company reported cost of production of USc2.4lb in 3QFY2012 compared to USc1.2/lb in 3QFY2011. Consequently, EBIT increased by 67.8% yoy to `326cr in 3QFY2012.
(` cr)
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
EBIT (LHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
February 1, 2012
3QFY12
(%)
Aluminium cost of production at Balco increased by 22.0% yoy to `98,234/tonne on account of higher prices of alumina and coal.
Consequently, the aluminium segments EBIT loss stood at `23cr compared to EBIT of `119cr in 3QFY2011.
Balco is now nearing regulatory approvals for its 211mn-tonne coal block. Approval of the coal block by regulatory authorities could potentially make Balcos operations profitable. Sterlite expects to get all the major clearances for
its Balco coal mine during FY2013.
Sterlites associate, Vedanta Aluminium also reported loss of `893cr in 3QFY2012 (Sterlites share of loss `264cr) compared to loss of `347cr in 3QFY2011. Exhibit 4: Aluminium segment reports EBIT loss of `23cr
240 200 160 27 24 21 18 15 12 9 6 3 0 (3) (6)
(`cr)
120 80 40 0
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
(40)
EBIT (LHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
February 1, 2012
3QFY12
(%)
(`cr)
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
EBIT (LHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Investment rationale
Zinc-lead expansion and power sales to aid growth: Sterlite had commissioned a 100ktpa lead smelter at Rajpura Dariba in 1QFY2012. Expansion at the silver-rich Sindesur Khurd mine is expected to result in robust sales volume growth in FY2013. Further, we believe Sterlite will benefit from increased merchant power sales from Balco. SEL to reach full production capacity in FY2013: SEL has already commissioned two units of 600MW each at Jharsuguda. The third unit was under trial run during 4QFY2012 and the fourth unit will be synchronized in 4QFY2012, the benefits of which will be witnessed in FY2013.
February 1, 2012
3QFY12
(%)
Valuation
We expect Sterlite to benefit from the expansion of zinc-lead smelting capacity during FY2012-13. Furthermore, Sterlites expansion in the silver-rich Sindesar Khurd mine is expected to result in net profit growth of 16.9% in FY2013. While we expect aluminium segments profitability to remain under pressure, the current stock price factors this concerns. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 2.7x FY2012E and 2.1x FY2013E EV/EBITDA, a significant discount to its five-year historical average of 7.1x. Hence, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock with an SOTP-based target price of `138. A key catalyst for the stock could be the final approval from MOEF to Balcos coal mine.
(` cr)
Valuation technique EV/EBIDTA EV/EBIDTA EV/EBIDTA EV/EBIDTA FCFE P/BV Target multiple (x) Equity value % Stake Sterlite's value Value/share 3.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 1.0 1.0 11,135 2,846 1,575 67,677 1,475 1,009 100% 51% 30% 65% 100% 100% 11,135 1,451 465 43,922 1,475 1,009 33 4 1 91 4 3 138
100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Apr-06 Sep-07 2.0x 5.0x Feb-09 8.0x 11.0x Jul-10 14.0x Dec-11
February 1, 2012
250 200 150 100 50 0 Apr-06 Sep-07 5.0x Feb-09 10.0x 15.0x Jul-10 20.0x Dec-11
Jul-10
Dec-11
(%) FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E 5.7 7.3 2.7
6.8
162 Accum. 29,263 - Neutral 15,373 138 Buy 40,099 - Neutral 57,887
February 1, 2012
February 1, 2012
February 1, 2012
(1,966) (1,421)
(1,483) (1,974)
(2,984) (5,340)
(6,898) (5,349)
(2,257) (1,128)
February 1, 2012
10
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio (%) Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) 0.1 0.3 22.8 0.0 0.1 10.1 0.1 0.7 19.6 0.0 0.1 23.3 (0.1) (0.3) 7.8 (0.1) (0.3) 8.1 1.8 71 23 29 46 1.4 54 15 52 44 1.5 59 8 57 83 1.2 83 19 89 111 1.2 83 19 89 86 1.2 83 19 89 77 27.2 31.6 27.5 10.6 13.9 14.6 11.8 16.3 12.7 11.5 16.4 13.0 11.3 17.5 12.1 11.5 18.4 12.7 29.4 75.2 0.8 18.6 4.9 0.1 20.0 18.9 85.3 0.7 12.0 5.6 0.0 12.2 23.2 81.4 0.6 11.2 2.9 0.1 12.2 23.1 80.2 0.7 12.9 2.3 0.0 13.1 19.9 84.0 0.8 14.0 14.0 19.4 78.0 0.9 13.7 13.7 15.7 15.7 17.8 1.6 78.6 12.3 12.3 14.8 1.4 90.4 11.9 11.9 14.1 1.3 110.1 15.0 14.3 18.2 1.8 123.3 15.8 15.8 21.0 1.8 137.2 18.5 18.5 24.9 2.2 153.5 7.6 6.7 1.5 1.4 0.8 2.6 0.6 9.7 8.1 1.3 1.2 0.9 4.1 0.5 10.1 8.5 1.1 1.1 1.0 4.1 0.5 8.3 6.6 1.0 1.5 1.0 3.7 0.4 7.6 5.7 0.9 1.5 0.6 2.7 0.3 6.5 4.8 0.8 1.8 0.5 2.1 0.3 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
February 1, 2012
11
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Sterlite Industries No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) :
February 1, 2012
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