NC Sea Level Rise

Ecosystem Adaptation to Rapidly-Rising Sea level in Tidal Wetlands of the Southeast Summary The effects of climate change are
highly variable and forecasts have substantial uncertainty. However, two virtually certain consequences of a warming climate at all scales are rising sea levels and increases in major hurricane intensity (Williams and others, 2009). These consequences increase flooding frequency and alter erosional and vegetative habitats in coastal areas. Tidal wetlands currently experiencing submergence by increasing sea levels will continue to lose area as the rate of sea level rise accelerates, and even under ideal conditions, coastal wetlands in the mid-Atlantic will likely only be able to keep up with a rate of sea level rise of 2 millimeters per year (Titus and Craghan, 2009). Over one-half of the U.S. population lives in the coastal zone, and developments in the storm-prone southeastern U. S. put lives and property at risk (NAST, 2000). To mitigate this risk, shorelines are often stabilized, altering the natural process of erosion, sedimentation, and wetland migration. To study the effect of sea level rise on tidal wetlands, an ideal study study includes a large area with different geomorphic settings, unbroken stretches of natural shoreline, minimal risk to humans, the ability to test various strategies for managing the land, and applicability to other regions. The Albemarle-Pamlico (AP) peninsula provides such a place. The proposed work seeks to understand, through monitoring and modeling, the effect of various adaptive management alternatives to maintain the ecological and biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health of the region in the face of a rising sea level and changes in hydrology. The effects of global climate change and accelerated sea level rise pose an immediate threat to the complex network of estuaries and wetlands of the AP peninsula. The majority of the peninsula has an elevation no greater than 0.6 meters above current mean sea level (see figure at right). The peninsulas 73,860 hectares are 96.4% federally owned (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge and Air Force Dare County Bombing Range) and under conservation protection by partners working together to collectively manage the landscape. Several recent studies ranked northeastern North Carolina as one of the top three most vulnerable areas to sea level rise in the United States due to landscape elevation and extensive ditching (Thieler and Hammar-Klose, 1999; CIER, 2008; Band and Salvesen, 2009). The current rate of relative sea level rise in this region is 3+ millimeters per year, with the rate expected to double within the next 50 to 100 years (Kemp and others, 2009). The objectives of the study are to: 1. Evaluate habitat change due to sea level rise and the corresponding changes in inundation frequency and magnitude.
2. Simulate hydrologic and habitat change resulting from adaptive management actions. 3. Quantify land surface accretion/subsidence rates, and LiDAR accuracy in each major habitat. 4. Provide common datasets, calibrated models, and develop the framework to loosely link different models to spur further research; effectively creating an instant framework for efficiently calibrating and evaluating new modeling approaches. This will be done by: 1. Performing a survey to define the vertical and horizontal positions of marsh monitoring locations and to evaluate the accuracy of existing LiDAR data in each habitat. 2. Assembling input data for the coastal ecological landscape models, converting data as needed, and uploading all information to a common access server. 3. Monitoring water level in one location and marsh subsidence/accretion in 11 habitats. 4. Predicting the effects of management adaption scenarios for various climate projections of sea level rise and tropical storm frequency and magnitude using four coastal ecology landscape models. 5. Documenting project results. 6. Opening the server that houses the data, results, and models to the wider modeling community and letting the resource continue to grow. The expected products include several calibrated coastal landscape ecology models that simulate the effect of various adaptive management practices on wetland processes and spatial extent. The parameterization of the models will be described and the data used to calibrate the models, and the models themselves will be published and publicly accessible. The water-level and surface elevation table data will provide critical information for land managers in North Carolina and beyond. The Nature Conservancy plans to continue the monitoring after the conclusion of this study. Through this project, the AP peninsula will become an efficient testing and comparison area for new coastal ecology landscape models. It also provides an in-depth case study for coastal areas that have not yet been affected, but need to prepare. Six USGS Scientific Investigations Reports: 1) WETLANDS model, 2) Habitat-Specific Ecosystem Model, 3) Expert-knowledge Bayesian network model, 4) Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model, 5) water level, accretion/subsidence monitoring, and digital elevation model validation, and 6) a comprehensive report of all of the models and monitoring. Team members will be encouraged to publish in professional journals and present at conferences. All data, results, calibrated models, and explanations of how to access and utilize the information will be publicly available on the Internet. Read and write access to the servers will be enabled for the public at the completion of the project and will allow access to other modelers to use all of the resources, add results, and share calibrated models. The research team will host a workshop to present results to the community in the third year and will continue involvement in the South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative and the Eastern North Carolina, Southeastern Virginia Strategic Habitat Conservation teams. The personnel, cooperators and partners include: Dr. Loren Wehmeyer, team facilitation, data compilation, monitoring, wetland landscape modeling Dr. Donald Cahoon, wetland elevation monitoring network design and installation training Dr. Lauren Hay, software development and data management system configuration Dr. Thomas Doyle, large storm analysis and wetland landscape modeling Dr. Roxolana Kashuba, Dr. Enrique Reyes, & Mr. Robert Mickler, wetland landscape modeling Mr. John Stanton & Mr. Dennis Stewart, ecological implications on the management of wildlife Dr. Brian Boutin, fieldwork, model interpretation, and management application
TITLE: Ecosystem Adaptation to Rapidly-Rising Sea level in Tidal Wetlands of the Southeast PRINCIPAL CONTACT: Dr. Loren Wehmeyer, Hydrologist, USGS North Carolina Water Science Center (2510), (919) 571-4094, llwehmey@usgs.gov OBJECTIVES/JUSTIFICATION: North Carolinas Albemarle-Pamlico (AP) peninsula and its surrounding waters (shown at right) support many species of resident and migratory fish and wildlife, including 48 documented species of fish (Allen and others, 1979; Baker and Smith, 1965; Hester and Copeland, 1975; Johnson and other, 1980); 145 species of birds (Potter, 1982); 48 species of reptiles and amphibians (Allen and others, 1979; Braswell and Wiley, 1982); and 40 species of mammals (Clark and others, 1985). The area supports wildlife species that are important from both a regional and a national standpoint and lies at or near the northern limit of ranges for several vertebrate species (Noffsinger and others, 1984). The AP peninsula marks the northern end of the threatened American alligator's range and remains a stronghold for the black bear, the endangered red-cockaded woodpecker, bald eagle, and the endangered red wolf (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2008), which is regarded as one of the most endangered animals in the world (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 1997). Imperiled vegetative communities in the AP peninsula include nonriverine wet hardwood forest, peatland Atlantic white cedar forest, nonriverine swamp forest, and low pocosin (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2008). The North Carolina Natural Heritage Program has designated three Significant Natural Heritage Areas on the AP peninsula, and the North Carolina Division of Water Quality has designated several water bodies in the vicinity as outstanding resource waters (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2008). The significance of providing tools to increase the understanding of sea level rise effects is clear. At the federal level, Department of Interior, Department of Agriculture, Department of Commerce, and the Department of Defense all have substantial land management and conservation programs. At the state level, the Albemarle Pamlico National Estuary Program is tasked to restore and protect the peninsula and its surrounding waterbodies. In the last two years, the Nature Conservancy has overseen over 600 hours per year in volunteer labor and has received over $1,500,000 in private donations, with a goal of $3,000,000 by 2016 to conduct studies and implement management actions for mitigating the effects of sea level rise on the AP Peninsula. The proposed work addresses three of the six science directions described in the USGS 2007-2017 Science Strategy, specifically 1) understanding ecosystems and predicting ecosystem change, 2) climate variability and change, and 3) national hazards, risk, and resilience assessment (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007). It also addresses or establishes the framework to address all five of the priority science activities defined in the NCCWSC 2009 National Workshop Summary (U.S. Geological Survey, 2009). Climate change threatens this resource-rich and vulnerable peninsula. Changes in the frequency and magnitude of large storms can result in shoreline erosion and degrade freshwater habitats with saline storm overwash, while sea level rise threatens to inundate the land surface and accelerate wetland loss. The proposed work seeks to understand, through monitoring and modeling, the effect of various adaptive management alternatives to maintain the ecological and biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health of the region in the face of rising sea level and changes in hydrology. Specifically, this project will: 1. Evaluate habitat change due to sea level rise and changes in storm frequency and magnitude. 2. Simulate hydrologic and habitat change resulting from management actions. 3. Quantify land surface accretion/subsidence rates, and LiDAR accuracy in 11 habitats.
4. Provide common datasets, calibrated models, and develop the framework to loosely link different models to spur further research; effectively creating an instant framework for efficiently calibrating and evaluating new modeling approaches. The proposed project provides a single platform for several of the best coastal ecology landscape models (CELMs) to interact in order to address a problem. The ensemble approach is better than using only one model and helps managers select the most appropriate model to employ in subsequent situations and allows researchers to test new models using common datasets. It also established one of the densest networks of surface elevation tables (SETs) on the Atlantic coast, which will help local, regional and national scientists understand the relation between sea level rise and land surface accretion/subsidence. BACKGROUND: Much of the AP peninsula is at an elevation of less than 2 meters above mean sea level (Corbett and others, 2008). From 1980-2000 sea level in the AP peninsula area rose at the rate of about 0.5 meters per 100 years (Riggs and others, 2008). Lateral saltwater intrusion has resulted in the landward expansion of the fringe salt marsh, replacing the pocosin swamp forest that is more resistant to erosion (Riggs and Ames, 2003). The peninsula has been cleared and logged for over 300 years (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2008). The figure at right shows the extensive network of ditches, which drain the wetlands and introduce saline water into the interior of the peninsula. The red rectangle in the figure shows the location where The Nature Conservancy and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service recently installed a water control structure with a flap valve and plan to introduce appropriate vegetation as a technique to preserve freshwater vegetative habitat. Canals have been shown to facilitate movement of brackish water from the Alligator River into the interior of the Buckridge Reserve (near the AP peninsula) during large storms and wind tides (Ferrell and others, 2007). The Nature Conservancy and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service have invested heavily in examining adaptive management alternatives to help the AP peninsula adapt to the effects of climate change. They selected five adaptive management actions that were both feasible and had the greatest chance for success. The adaptive management alternatives include planting appropriate vegetation, building oyster reefs and managing water in the canals in order to compensate partially for the spatial and temporal habitat changes that hydrologic alterations have caused throughout the region, and can buy the ecosystem time to adapt. The five adaptive management alternatives selected include: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Constructing fringing oyster reefs along the eastern shoreline Restoring marsh along northern shoreline (sawgrass, salt meadow hay, black needle rush) Restoring marsh along the western shoreline (sawgrass, salt meadow hay, black needle rush) Planting bald cypress in all of the agricultural fields Installing water control structures with flap valves at all canals along the eastern coast
Coastal ecology landscape models predict habitat in space and time and are effective tools for visualizing the effects of sea level rise on land-based habitat. This developing field of study has been hindered by the challenges in demonstrating the predictive ability of these models and the barriers in coordinating the evaluation of new techniques and models with alternate approaches (Turner and others, 1987; Costanza and Voinov, 2004).The two most important data sources driving the CELMs are land surface elevation and mean sea level. Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data were collected across the AP peninsula in 2001 and provide a high-resolution digital elevation model. The North Carolina Water
Science Center is one of the agency leaders in LiDAR data manipulation and can resample the data into various pixel sizes. Small pixels in dense vegetation can result in the bare earth inaccurately being defined as the top surface of the vegetation. Pixels that are large may avoid this problem, but may not have the resolution necessary for adequately evaluating the adaptive management alternatives. Field surveying in each of the peninsulas 11 habitat types (pond pine/shrub pocosin, pond pine/cane pocosin, brackish marsh, low shrub pocosin, non-alluvial hardwood forest, mixed pine/hardwood forest, Atlantic white cedar forest, high shrub pocosin, cropland, managed wetlands, and cypress-gum forest) will provide a way to quantify the vertical accuracy of the digital elevation models within each habitat type. Future mean sea levels based on emission scenarios articulated in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th assessment report (IPCC, 2007) will be used. The subset of emissions scenarios selected for this project include A1F1 and B1, encompassing a wide range of emissions by 2100. The Sea Level Rise Rectification Program (SLRRP) generates local sea level projections based on IPCC projections for each emission scenario and 7 general circulation models combined with intra- and interannual variability of sea level determined from local tide gage records (Keim and others, 2008; Doyle and others, 2010). SLRRP rectifies the historical tide record and future eustatic sea level rise into a common datum to facilitate comparison with land-based elevations. The SLRRP model generates a sea level prediction by wrapping the historical mean monthly records for the period of record up to year 2100 before adding the predicted or accelerated eustatic sea level rise based on a selected IPCC model and scenario. SLRRP uses an historical eustatic sea level rate of 1.8 mm/year (0.071 in) conferred by several sources as the best estimate for the global-mean of the 20th Century (IPCC, 2007; Douglas, 1997). SLRRP will produce hydrographic time-series that can be used seamlessly as an input to the other models. The proposed work builds on two recent NCCWSC and global change program projects. The Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) provides much of the framework for this evaluation, including a sensitivity and accuracy assessment (Alexa McKerrow) of the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) and the use of a Bayesian model to relate sea level, coastal erosion, and inundation under geological constraints, which includes a viewing interface (Nathaniel Plant and Rob Theiler). The USGS National Assessment of Shoreline Change program has published shapefiles of historic shoreline location (U.S. Geological Survey, 2005) and the effects of extreme storms on coastal change (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/). NOAA and FEMA have also funded sea level rise modeling projects using a storm surge model (ADCIRC) that has the same output file type as the proposed models, so ADCIRC can potentially be loosely coupled efficiently in future collaborations (see http://www.nauticalcharts.noaa.gov/csdl/sealevelrise.html and http://www.ncsealevelrise.com/). Each model has already been developed for the AP peninsula (SLAMM, see Mickler and Welch, 2009); a neighboring watershed (Habitat-Specific Ecosystem Model, see National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2009), within the region (HURASIM, see Doyle, 2009; WETLANDS, see Doyle and others, 2003) or is location-independent (Bayesian network model).The CELMs simulate habitat location and extent. The next step is to model wildlife populations given habitat extent. In the future, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service will collaborate in coupling wildlife population models with the CELMs. PROCEDURES/METHODS: Monitoring Monitoring changes in marsh surface elevation must be done with high precision because annual changes in elevation are generally only a few millimeters. Cahoon and others (1995, 1999) present a method whereby surface accretion processes are monitored by repeated sampling of artificial marker horizon plots and then marsh surface elevation is correspondingly monitored with a rod surface elevation table. This permits the determination of elevation change occurring over different portions of the sediment profile because it can be attached to benchmarks that are driven to both deeper and shallower depths.
Wetland response to sea level rise differs among wetlands depending on geomorphic setting, region, dominant vegetation type, tidal range, and sediment supply (Cahoon and others, 2006). Three replicate SETs will be installed in each of the 11 habitat types identified and described in U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (2008). Don Cahoon will travel to North Carolina to train staff from the North Carolina Water Science Center and The Nature Conservancy in the installation, maintenance, and monitoring of the sites (Cahoon and others, 2002). At the completion of the project, The Nature Conservancy has agreed to cover the continuing costs for maintenance and data collection of the SETs. Elevation surveys will be conducted across the AP Peninsula to coincide with SET sites where hydrology, subsidence, and accretion information will be gathered. Real-time kinematic global positioning system (GPS) surveying will be used to establish vertical elevations of SET benchmarks (with millimeter vertical accuracy) within the 11 (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2008) identified habitat types. A combination of real-time kinematic GPS and differential leveling survey by traditional methods will be used to run traverses and circuits across vegetation types and communities to build species occurrence models relative to local hydrology and tidal coupling. All surveys will be linked to known or measured elevation networks tied to SET monuments or tidal benchmarks. Station locations will be established every 30 meters along a given transect or traverse from which land elevation, surface water elevation, vegetation cover and stature will be recorded. The relative change in the land surface elevation compared to mean sea level is more important than accretion and subsidence rates alone. The closest tidal water-level gage to the AP peninsula is at Duck, North Carolina on the opposite side of the North Carolina barrier islands. The USGS will install a stage-only gage on the eastern coast of the AP peninsula that will measure and record water-level data necessary to quantify the relative change in the land surface elevation. The gage will be maintained according to USGS protocols (Rantz, 1982) and water-level data will be published annually. Modeling This study includes two modeling aspects. The first is to evaluate the local, historical characteristics of tropical storms and incorporate their characteristics under a changing climate into the CELMs. The second is to simulate coastal ecological processes that affect landscape habitat dynamics using the CELMs. The CELMs will be initialized in 1932 and 2010 (dates of aerial photos) and simulate two IPCC emission scenarios (A1F1 and B1) for five dates (1961, 2010, 2020, 2060, 2100) and the five adaptive management scenarios mentioned previously. HURASIM Model The regularity and severity of tropical storms are major determinants controlling ecosystem structure and succession for coastal ecosystems. Hurricane landfall rates vary greatly with high and low frequency for given coastal stretches of the southeastern United States (Doyle, 2009). HURASIM is a spatial simulation model of hurricane structure and circulation for reconstructing estimated wind force and vectors of past hurricanes (Doyle and others, 1995; Doyle and Girod, 1997; Doyle, 2009). The model uses historical (1851-2010) tracking and meteorological data of North Atlantic tropical storms taken from the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administrations National Hurricane Center HURDAT database. Data input for the model include tracking information of storm position, latitude and longitude, central pressure, and maximum sustained wind speed every six hours or less. The model estimates storm characteristics and produces profiles of maximum predicted wind conditions for a given site stored by year and storm from 1851 to 2010. Model applications have been validated for wind speed and direction with meteorological data collected from portable anemometers that were deployed to capture wind data during landfall of Hurricane Rita (2005) at different locations in southwest Louisiana and eastern Texas. The HURASIM model will be applied in this study to provide a retrospective analysis of spatial and temporal chronologies of hurricane incidents for the AP Peninsula. Model output for 1851-2007 will be analyzed to review the periodicity of storm events and to construct future characteristics of storm frequency under a changing
climate. Windspeed profiles and storm surge frequencies will be used in the CELMs to predict the effects of potential forest damage and increased soil salinity from surge overwash. Coastal Ecological Landscape Models (CELMs) Ecological research and management assessment has been accomplished using spatially articulated biophysical models for over two decades (Sklar and others, 1985; Reyes and others, 2000, 2004). These spatial models referred to as CELMs incorporate location-specific algorithms that allow feedback between the local processes and the landscape habitat dynamics, so that both the diverse habitats and the intensity of the processes affecting them changes throughout time (Boumans and Sklar, 1990). The CELMs applied in this study include WETLANDS (Doyle, 1997; Doyle and others, 2003), SLAMM (Clough and others, 2010), Habitat-Specific Ecosystem Model (Reyes and others, 2000), and an application of a Bayesian network approach (Jensen and Nielsen, 2007; Kjaerulff and Madsen, 2008) relating expert knowledge of ecosystems to climate change and management scenarios. The CELMs will all be generated from common data sources to facilitate model comparisons. Input data include 1.5-meter-by-1.5-meter resolution LiDAR data and 3-meter-by-3-meter resolution LiDAR data to be used as digital elevation models. Ortho-rectified aerial photography will be interpreted by U.S. Fish and Wildlife and other partners to classify the locations and extent of the 11 habitat types using images that date back to 1932. The 11 habitat types defined from the past and present aerial photos will be converted to grid files and included as shared data. Each of the CELMs will be modified to produce maps (grid files) of the spatial extent of these 11 habitats. Mean sea level for each IPCC emission scenario and date will be derived from the SLRRP model (described in the background section). Each model will be set up to start running in 1932, with the initiation from the first aerial photographs. Results will be presented for 1961 and 2010 when aerial photographs can be used to assess the predictive ability of the model from 1932 to 2010. The model will then be re-initialized to start in 2010 with results output for 2020, 2060, and 2100. Each model will produce map sets of habitat extent for the five adaptive management scenarios for each date, and for the two selected IPCC emission scenarios (A1F1 and B1). Therefore, each model will output five dates, two emission scenarios and five management scenarios, for up to 50 maps. WETLANDS Model The WETLANDS landscape simulation model predicts changes in the spatial distribution of coastal marsh and forest due to sea level rise (Doyle, 1998; Doyle and others, 2003). The model contains functional attributes of community sensitivity to hydrological conditions, including habitat type and topography. The model simulates pore water salinity to relate emergent vegetation to surficial hydrology and to predict marsh migration upslope under rising sea level. Maps of aquatic and terrestrial habitat at a community level are used to initialize model simulation by vegetative type and associated dominant species. Flood height is then used to predict favored habitat condition based on probability functions of species and community tolerance to coastal inundation and elevation calibrated from elevation and hydrological surveys. Storm surge frequencies obtained from the HURASIM model will be used to elevate soil salinities favoring salt-tolerant vegetation. In the proposed project, the WETLANDS model will use a LiDAR-based digital elevation model and habitat maps from available sources for the AP Peninsula (White and Sellars, 2004; Bales and others, 2007) to simulate a likelihood index of habitat change and conversion under the different scenarios of sea level rise and adaptive management. Habitat-Specific Ecosystem Model Habitat-Specific Ecosystem Model assesses the spatial correlation between present and proposed hydrologic modifications, associated sediment loads, and long-term effects of climate change on the survival of wetland communities. The modeling effort includes the collection, organization and synthesis of environmental data, combined with the development and implementation of a biophysical simulation model
that incorporates a shallow-water hydrodynamic module, a soil-building component to account for elevation changes, and a vegetation module that computes above and below wetland biomass. The model computes water levels, flooding duration, salinity, and suspended sediment concentrations for all locations in the peninsula. Shallow and well-mixed water bodies will be simulated using two-dimensional, horizontal plane models (Reyes and others, 2000, 2004). The change in water level in each cell is determined in the model by water exchanges in and out of the cell across all four boundaries plus surplus rainfall. Water crossing from one cell to another carries both organic and inorganic particles. These suspended materials are partitioned between being deposited, resuspended, lost due to subsidence, and carried to the next cell. The relative rates of each of these exchanges in each location are a function of habitat type. Long-term geologic processes such as accretion, subsidence, and sea level rise will be included as boundary conditions, while ecological processes of soil formation and habitat change will be derived from averaged results of the mechanistic processes simulated in the model. The model will simulate accretion rates throughout the sediment profile, which can be calibrated further in future work with SET data after at least three years of monitoring. The buildup of land or the development of open water in a cell depends on the balance between net inputs of sediments and local organic peat deposition, and outputs due to erosion and subsidence on the other. This balance of sediment inputs and outputs is critical for predicting how wetland succession and productivity are affected by natural and human activities. The model uses hydrological information to compute wetland primary productivity, green and brown biomass. Marsh and swamp productivity are calculated as net primary productivity for each plant community in the model. The model computes above and below-ground biomass as a function of biomass, maximum growth rate and a limiting function. The limiting function accounts for daily temperature, water level, salinity, and their synergy (Hopkinson and others, 1988; Mitsch, 1988; Nyman and others, 1990). Wetland colonization routines will be added to represent vegetative responses to the deposition of sediments and elevation changes. Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) SLAMM was developed with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) funding (Park and others, 1986) and has subsequently been used to simulate sea level rise on 20% of the coast of the contiguous U.S. for the EPA Report to Congress on potential effects of global change. It has received a cool reception from USGS scientists, among other reasons, because the forcing functions do not allow for feedbacks among variables (Kirwan and Guntenspergen, 2009). No USGS funding will support the development of SLAMM. However, The Nature Conservancy intends to fund the development of SLAMM and it will be integrated seamlessly into this project. SLAMM will be treated the same as the other models. The USGS will work with Bob Mickler (North Carolina State University) to publish a report consistent with the other reports, and SLAMM will be included in the comprehensive report. In summary, SLAMM simulates the dominant processes involved in wetland conversions and shoreline modifications during long-term sea level rise. A decision tree incorporates geometric and qualitative relationships to represent transfers among coastal habitat classes. The model domain is divided into cells of equal area, and each vegetation class within a cell is simulated separately. Relative sea level change is computed for each cell and time step. The sum of the historic eustatic trend, the site-specific rate of change of elevation due to accretion or subsidence and isostatic adjustment, and mean sea level depend on the IPCC emissions scenario and date selected. For each time step, the fractional conversion from one class to another is computed based on the relative change in elevation divided by the elevation range of the cells class. Expert-knowledge parameterized Bayesian network model Expert knowledge is the backbone of science. Using expert knowledge to parameterize a predictive model offers a variety of benefits. First, it provides a comprehensive assessment of a system from all information synthesized over a careers worth of experience. Expert judgment expresses an intuitive sense of how confidently science knows particular relationships, incorporating uncertainty assessment into model
parameterization. The challenge is translating this expertise into a quantifiable form that can then be compared with output from other models. A Bayesian network approach (Heckerman, 1999; Jensen and Nielsen, 2007; Kjaerulff and Madsen, 2008; Neapolitan, 2004; Pourret and others, 2008; Spirtes and others, 2000; Taroni and others, 2006) offers a viable solution to meet this goal. A Bayesian network is a probabilistic modeling framework consisting of a series of nodes and arrows, representing variables and relationships between variables, respectively. In this network (or graphical model), a node with arrows pointing to it is called a child node and a node with arrows pointing from it is called a parent node. The orientation of these child and parent nodes is selected in such as way as to describe the causal relationships between variables in a system. Each child node is modeled as a distribution of likely values, dependent on the values of its parent node(s), which causally precede it. This series of parent-child relationships is then linked together into one interdependent network. This network predicts the impact of changes to any node on the entire system. The goal is to codify expert knowledge, appropriately recognizing the degree of uncertainty in that knowledge, and then use that knowledge directly in model development and parameterization. Using expert knowledge to parameterize the relationships between nodes, the output of this type of network is expert-predicted probability distribution of likelihood of each habitat type to occur at each location in the study area given factors such as current habitat, mean sea level and management action. These individual, site-level Bayesian networks can be aggregated using a geographic information system interface into spatially explicit probability maps, predicting the likelihood of each habitat type given each climate and management scenario. Comprehensive evaluation and comparison of CELMs Each model will output a map of the extent of the predicted 11 habitat types (and the associated probability of each habitat for the models capable of doing this) for each of the combinations of emission scenario, date, and adaptive management alternative. For each of the hindcasting dates, the output will be compared to the grid files generated from interpretations of the ortho-rectified aerial photographs. Comparison metrics will include hectares of habitat match between predicted, observed, and between models to establish a degree of association. EXPECTED PRODUCTS: The expected products include several calibrated coastal landscape ecosystem models that simulate the effect of various adaptive management practices on wetland processes and spatial extent. The data used to calibrate the models and the models themselves will be published and publicly accessible. The water-level and surface elevation table data will provide critical information for land managers in North Carolina and beyond and The Nature Conservancy plans to continue the monitoring after the conclusion of this study. Through this project, the AP peninsula will become an efficient testing and comparison area for new coastal ecology landscape models. It also provides an in-depth case study for coastal areas that have not yet been affected by sea level rise, but need to prepare for it. Six USGS Scientific Investigations Reports: 1) WETLANDS model, 2) Habitat-Specific Ecosystem Model, 3) Expert-knowledge Bayesian network model, 4) SLAMM model, 5) monitoring and digital elevation model validation, and 6) a comprehensive report of all of the models and monitoring. Team members will be encouraged to publish in professional journals and present at conferences. The online geodatabase will include maps of habitat extent from model runs, all of the input data, each of the calibrated models, and documentation for using and interacting with the information. TECHNOLOGY/INFORMATION TRANSFER: All data, results, calibrated models, and explanations of how to access and utilize the information will be publically available on the Internet. Read and write access to the servers will be enabled for the public at the completion of the project and will allow other modelers to use all of the resources, add results, and share calibrated models. The research team will host a workshop to present results to the wider
coastal climate change research community in the third year. The Nature Conservancy will incorporate this information into material presented to individuals and organizations that may not be interested in the scientific details of the research, but interested in the application of the research. An important aspect of the proposed work involves the continued involvement of project partners with the South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative (SALCC) and the Eastern North Carolina, Southeastern Virginia Strategic Habitat Conservation (SHC) team. The investigators will be involved with the SHC team and part of an annual workshop addressing climate change and modeling in the SALCC. DATA MANAGEMENT: Cross-disciplinary research between modeling groups is complicated by the variety of file formats and semantics of data that are used by different researchers. The modeling community lacks not only a standard data exchange format, but more fundamentally lacks a standard definition for the term shared data. These limitations complicate the exchange of information between researchers for use in digital models. Scientists need a simple solution to facilitate the interconnection of their models thereby fostering truly interdisciplinary research. This work proposes addressing these issues by using defined protocols based on open standards. The proposed form of data management involves use of a web portal system to be developed by the USGSs Geographic Information Office in order to provide web services for accessing model datasets from Windows-based servers located in science centers throughout the USGS. For this project, a server will be set up in the North Carolina Water Science Center that utilizes THREDDS technology. Adherence to industry best practices and required security configurations will be implemented by local Information Technology support personnel. Then each model will be modified to both input and output an open standard data format (NetCDF), ensuring that the files can be pushed into one of the systems THREDDS servers. Finally, the information will be incorporated into the Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center science projects modeling framework and portal. The initial investment in converting models to a common language is small, but there will be an immediate increase in efficiency resulting from a reduction in data reformatting tasks normally performed by modelers. From a scientific perspective, the potential payoff is significant because it makes modeling information readily accessible across an entire modeling community. Quality control will continue to be the responsibility of each modeler. All input data to the models will be consistent, including the digital elevation model, sea-level rise scenarios, and other inputs defined at the onset of the project. The modelers are limited to these shared resources to ensure all of the models have the same data. Throughout the project, the data, models, and related information will be accessible via the Internet, in a workspace capable of subsequently incorporating additional models added from the wider research community. The research team will be trained in metadata creation at a workshop in the first year, and will have technical assistance, as needed, to ensure metadata and documentation are in acceptable formats and condition. PERSONNEL: Loren Wehmeyer (USGS North Carolina Water Science Center), wetland landscape modeling, data compilation, monitoring, comprehensive model evaluation leader Lauren Hay (USGS National Research Program), software development and data management Thomas Doyle (USGS National Wetland Research Center), large storm analysis and wetland landscape modeling Roxolana Kashuba (USGS North Carolina Water Science Center), wetland landscape modeling MANAGEMENT PLAN: This is a complex project with several different aspects to manage. Loren Wehmeyer will be the contact for all cooperators and partners. At the initiation of the project, Lauren Hay will outline a systematic
process for preparing each model to be modified. The modelers will provide their model source code to Loren Wehmeyer and he will package them up and send them to Lauren Hay. Once the North Carolina Water Science Center has the computer hardware and network functioning, Lauren Hay will come to North Carolina for a workshop with the modelers to ensure that all team members understand how to appropriately utilize and take advantage of the framework efficiently. Because all data and results are stored on servers accessible to all partners, the progress of each modeler can be tracked. Modelers are responsible for submitting quarterly updates to Loren Wehmeyer that will be reviewed as part of the North Carolina Water Science Center Support and Technical Assistance Team review, as well as annual progress reports for incorporation into the NCCWSC annual progress reports. All data, results, calibrated models, and documentation of how to run the models will be stored online. At the completion of the project, the online workspace will be accessible to anyone via the Internet. COOPERATORS/PARTNERS: The following individuals will provide services, but will not receive salary money from this project. Donald Cahoon (USGS Patuxent Wildlife Science Center) SET monitoring (technical) 10300 Baltimore Avenue, BARC-East, Bldg 308, Beltsville, MD 20705, p: 301-497-5523, f: 301-4975624, dcahoon@usgs.gov Enrique Reyes (East Carolina University through the Piedmont-South Atlantic Coast CESU) Wetland landscape modeling (in-kind and technical) Dept. of Biology, ECU, Greenville, NC 27858, p: 252-328-5778, f: 252-328-4178, reyese@ecu.edu Bob Mickler (North Carolina State University) Wetland landscape modeling (technical) 1000 Park Forty Plaza, Suite 200, Durham, NC 27713, p: 919-406-2104, f: 919-549-4995, rmickler@alionscience.com John Stanton (USFWS South Atlantic Migratory Bird Coordination Office) Assessing ecological implications on the management of migratory birds (in-kind and technical) P.O. Box 210, Columbia, NC 27925, p: 252-796-2400. f: 252-296-2403, John_Stanton@fws.gov Dennis Stewart (USFWS, Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge) Assessing ecological implications on the management of wildlife in general (in-kind and technical) P.O. Box 1969, Manteo, NC 27954, p: 252-473-1131 x231, f: 252-473-1668, dennis_stewart@fws.gov Brian Boutin (The Nature Conservancy) Fieldwork, model interpretation, and management application (in-kind and technical) 701 West Ocean Acres Dr., Kill Devil Hills, NC 27948, p: 252-441-2525, f: 252441-1271, bboutin@tnc.org FACILITIES/EQUIPMENT/STUDY AREA(S): The field-study area is the federally owned land of the Albemarle-Pamlico peninsula. No new facilities or major equipment will be utilized, with the exception of a server that provides access to models and datasets from internet-capable devices. The data server will be set up using THREDDS technology at the North Carolina Water Science Center using best practices and security configuration. LEGAL AND POLICY-SENSITIVE ASPECTS: There are no legal or policy-sensitive aspects of this project. BUDGET: Objective: Improve understanding of land surface accretion and subsidence relative to sea level. Costs: SET supplies, training (travel expense only, time donated), SET installation with in-kind contribution of one month of labor by TNC, monitoring, water-level gage installation, water-level gage annual management, coring device for SET installation, SET platform: $160,000. Objective: Assemble, validate, and prepare data sources and models.
Costs: Workspace and data management configuration, surveying for LiDAR validation and SET elevations, data assembly and management: $90,000. Objective: Model landscape habitats incorporating climate change effects, share information. Costs: WETLANDS, Bayesian network, Habitat-Specific Ecosystem Model, SLAMM (only Report writing and publication funded by USGS) models, publications, publicly accessible workspace: $647,520. Funds from other sources: The Nature Conservancy: $29,075 for SLAMM modeling, $29,745 in inkind services related to fieldwork and model interpretation; East Carolina University: $20,204 in cost share; U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service: $38,400 in in-kind services related to model interpretation. Amount requested from NCCWSC: $897,520. Project amount including in-kind contributions: $1,014,944. See budget spreadsheets for breakdown. LEVERAGING: In 2008, the Nature Conservancy received a $1,000,000 grant from Duke Energy, and anticipates raising an addition $2,000,000 in private donations within the next 3 years to facilitate adaptive management of the land on the AP peninsula for the effects of climate change. The focus of the work conducted by The Nature Conservancy is concrete, on-the-ground, tangible management actions. This project will provide additional scientific justification for this action. An exciting benefit is that the proposed project will be followed up by $1,000,000+ in active management informed by the work. In 2009, the Department of Defense funded a study using SLAMM to simulate the effects of sea level rise on the AP peninsula, which includes the Dare bombing range (Department of Defense, 2010). Additionally, USGS researcher Alexa McKerrow is currently conducting a sensitivity and accuracy analysis of SLAMM and a Bayesian model employing a statistical framework for predicting coastal erosion and inundation under a range of sea level rise scenarios that consider the effects of geologic constraints and other forces has recently been developed by USGS Oceanographer Nathaniel Plant, both as part of the Southeast Regional Assessment Project. The WETLANDS and Bayesian network model use similar empirical concepts and a probabilistic framework and can integrate Plants knowledge with additional theoretically-derived biological drivers and expert opinion related to habitat change. The U.S. Forest Service has a rich ongoing research program on the peninsula including a series of top-down and bottom-up ecosystem studies using eddycovariance methodology and detailed analyses of net primary production and soil carbon dynamics at a series of managed and unmanaged ecosystems. They are interested in exploring the possibility of loosely coupling their models of evapotranspiration, net primary production and soil carbon storage. The proposed work employs three high-resolution data products: LiDAR data with a vertical accuracy of about 10-20 centimeters (which will be further evaluated), detailed historic and wetland vegetation maps, and soil surveys. WORK AND REPORTING SCHEDULE: Design marsh monitoring network, install stations Compile data, set up servers, create software to share common data and models Use conventional surveying to validate LiDAR data, tie in marsh monitoring Analyze LiDAR data accuracy in each habitat type FY 2011 Annual Progress Report submitted Build and run models for all scenarios, reports for each model in peer-review Comprehensive modeling report and marsh monitoring report in peer-review FY 2012 Annual Progress Report submitted Project completion pending peer review and security check of online resources All documentation and reports published, server publically available 10/2010-4/2011 10/2010-4/2011 4/2011-5/2011 5/2011-9/2011 1/2012 1/2011-5/2013 5/2013-9/2013 1/2013 9/2013 1/2014
LITERATURE CITED: Allen, C., Corcoran, M., McDade, L., Travis, J., and Wheeler, D., 1979, An ecological survey of selected inland Dare County sites, with evaluation for conservation potential. Unpublished report. North Carolina Department of Natural Resources and Community Development, Division of Parks and Recreation, North Carolina Natural Heritage Program. 53 p. Baker, W., and Smith, W., 1965, Survey and classification of the Scuppernong-Alligator Rivers and tributaries, North Carolina. North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission, Division of Inland Fisheries. 15 p. + tables and appendices. Band, L., and Salvesen, D., 2009, Climate change committee report. University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC. Bales, J.D., Wagner, C.R., Tighe, K.C., and Terziotti, S., 2007, LiDAR-derived flood-inundation maps for real-time flood-mapping applications, Tar River basin, North Carolina: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20075032, 42 p. Boumans, R.M.J., and Sklar, F.H., 1990, A polygon-based spatial (PBS) model for simulating landscape change. Landscape Ecology 4: 83-97. Braswell, A. L., and Wiley, J.E., 1982, Preliminary survey of the amphibians and reptiles of First Colony Firm's land on mainland Dare County. Pages 6295 in E. Potter, ed., A Survey of the Vertebrate Fauna of Mainland Dare County, North Carolina. North Carolina Biological Survey, Raleigh, North Carolina. 190 p. Cahoon, D.R., Lynch, J.C., Perez, B.C., Segura, B., Holland, R., Stelly, C., Stephenson, G., and Hensel, P., 2002, A device for high precision measurement of wetland sediment elevation: II. The rod surface elevation table. Journal of Sedimentary Research. Vol. 72, No. 5. 734-739 p. Cahoon, D.R., Reed, D.J., and Day, J.W. Jr., 1995, Estimating shallow subsidence in microtidal salt marshes of the southeastern United States: Kaye and Barghoorn revisited. Marine Geology 128:1-9. Cahoon, D.R., Day, J.W. Jr., and Reed, D.J., 1999, The influence of surface and shallow subsurface soil processes on wetland elevation: a synthesis. In, Current Topics in Wetland Biogeochemistry, Vol. 3. 72-88 p., Wetland Biogeochemistry Institute, Louisiana State University, USA. Cahoon, D.R., Hensel, P.F., Spencer, T., Reed, D.J., McKee, K.L., and Saintilan, N., 2006, Coastal wetland vulnerability to relative sea level rise: wetland elevation trends and process controls. Pages 271-292, In: JTA Verhoeven, B. Beltman, R. Bobboink, and D Whigham (Eds.) Wetlands and Natural Resource Management. Ecological Studies, Volume 190, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. CCSP, 2009, Coastal sensitivity to sea level rise: A focus on the Mid-Atlantic region. A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. [James G. Titus (Coordinating Lead Author), K. Eric Anderson, Donald R. Cahoon, Dean B. Gesch, Stephen K. Gill, Benjamin T. Gutierrez, E. Robert Thieler, and S. Jeffress Williams (Lead Authors)]. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington D.C., USA, 320 p. Center for Integrated Research (CIER), 2008. Economic impacts of climate change on North Carolina. University of Maryland, College Park, MD. Clark, M.K., Lee, D.S., and Funderburg, J.B. Jr., 1985, The mammal fauna of Carolina bays, pocosins, and associated communities in North Carolina. Brimleyana No. 11:1-38. Clough, J.S., Park, R.A., Fuller, R., 2010, Sea level affecting marshes model, version 6 beta. Accessed July 27, 2010 at http://warrenpinnacle.com/prof/SLAMM6/SLAMM6_Technical_Documentation.pdf. Costanza, R., and Voinov, A. (eds), 2004, Landscape simulation modeling: a spatially explicit, dynamic approach. Spring-Verlag, New York. 330 p. Corbett, D.R., Walsh, J.P., Cowart, L., Riggs, S.R., Ames, D.V., Culver, S.J., 2008, Shoreline change within the Albemarle-Pamlico estuarine system, North Carolina: Institute for Coastal Science and Policy, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC, 10 p.
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Keim, B.D., Doyle, T.W., Burkett, V.R., Tebaldi, C., van Heerden, I., Binselam, S.A., Wehner, M.F., Houston, T.G., and Beagan, D.M, 2008, How is the gulf coast climate changing?, in Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study, Phase I; Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Washington, D.C., Department of Transportation, Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.7, 445 p. Kemp, A.C., Horton, B.P., Culver, S.J., Corbett, D.R., Van de Plassche, O., Gehrels, W.R., Douglas, B.C., and Parnell, A.C., 2009, Timing and magnitude of recent accelerated sea level rise (North Carolina, United States). Geology 37(11): 1035-1038. Kirwan, M.L., and Guntenspergen, G.R., 2009, Accelerated sea level rise A response to Craft et al. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment: Vol. 7, No. 3, pp. 126-127. doi: 10.1890/09.WB.005 Kjaerulff, U.B., and Madsen, A.L., 2008, Bayesian networks and influence diagrams. New York, NY: Springer. Mickler, R.A., and Welch, D., 2009, Sea level rise risk assessment for DoD coastal installations. Department of Defense Legacy Resource Management Program. Arlington, VA., Technical Report, Project # 08-410. 639 p. Mitsch, W.J., 1988, Productivity-hydrology-nutrient models of forested wetlands. In W.J. Mitsch, M.S. Jorgensen, and S.E. Jorgensen, eds., Wetland Modelling: Developments in Environmental Modelling. Elsevier Science Publishers B.V., Netherlands. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2009, North Carolina sea level rise project: Application to management: White Paper, NOAA Workshop October 2009. Morehead City, NC. Neapolitan, R.E., 2004, Learning Bayesian networks. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall. Noffsinger, R.E., Laney, R.W., Nichols, A.M., Stewart, D.L., and Steffeck, D.W., 1984, Prulean Farms, Inc.: A fish and wildlife coordination act report. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 200 p. Nyman, J.A., DeLaune, R.D., and Patrick, W.H., 1990, Wetland soil formation in the rapidly subsiding Mississippi River deltaic plain: mineral and organic matter relationships. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 30:1-13. Park, R.A., Armentano, T.V., and Cloonan, C.L., 1986, Predicting the effects of sea level rise on coastal wetlands. In: J.G. Titus, Ed. Effects of Changes in Stratospheric Ozone and Global Climate. Vol. 4: Sea Level Rise. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., p. 12-152. Potter, E.F., 1982, Wintering and breeding birds of pocosins and adjacent agricultural fields in Dare County, North Carolina. Pages 96190 in E. Potter, ed., A Survey of the Vertebrate Fauna of Mainland Dare County, North Carolina. North Carolina Biological Survey, Raleigh, North Carolina. 190 pp. Pourret, O., Naim, P., and Marcot, B., 2008, Bayesian networks: A practical guide to applications. Chichester, UK: Wiley. Rantz, S.E., and others, 1982, Measurement and computation of streamflow: V. 1. Measurement of stage and discharge, U.S. Geological Survey Water-Supply Paper 2175, 284 p. Reyes, E., White, M.L., Martin, J.F., Kemp, G.P., Day, J.W., and Aravamuthan, V., 2000, Landscape modeling of coastal habitat change in the Mississippi Delta. Ecology 81: 2331-2349. Reyes E., Martin, J.F., Day, J.W., Kemp, G.P., and Mashriqui, H., 2004, River forcing at work: Watershed modeling of prograding and regressive deltas. Wetlands Ecology and Management.12 (2): 103-114. Riggs, S.R., Culver, S.J., Ames, D.V., Mallison, D.J., Corbett, D.R., and Walsh, J.P., 2008. North Carolinas coasts in crisis: a vision for the future: Institute for Coastal Science and Policy, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC, 26 p. Riggs, S.R., and Ames, D.V., 2003, Drowning the North Carolina coast: sea level rise and estuarine dynamics: Raleigh, North Carolina, North Carolina Sea Grant Program, 152 p.
Sklar, F.H., Costanza, R., and Day, J.W., 1985, Dynamic spatial simulation modelling of coastal wetland habitat succession. Ecological Modelling 29: 261-281. Spirtes, P., Glymour, C., and Scheines, R., 2000, Causation, prediction, and search. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Taroni, F., Aitkin, C., Garbolino, P., and Biedermann, A., 2006, Bayesian networks and probabilistic inference in forensic science. Chichester, UK: Wiley. Thieler, E.R., and Hammer-Klose, E.S., 1999, National assessment of coastal vulnerability to future sea level rise: Preliminary results for the U.S. Atlantic coast, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 99593. Titus, J.G. and Craghan, M., 2009, Shore protection and retreat. In: Coastal sensitivity to sea-level rise: A focus on the Mid-Atlantic region. A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. [J.G. Titus (coordinating lead author), K.E. Anderson, D.R. Cahoon, D.B. Gesch, S.K. Gill, B.T. Gutierrez, E.R. Thieler, and S.J. Williams (lead authors)]. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington DC, p. 87-104. Turner M.G., Costanza, R., and Sklar, F.H., 1987, Methods to evaluate the performance of spatial simulation models. Ecological Modelling 48(1-2): 1-18. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2008, Comprehensive conservation plan: Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge. Atlanta, GA. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 1997, Endangered red wolf. Asheville, NC. U.S. Geological Survey, 2005, The national assessment of shoreline change: A GIS compilation of vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the U.S. Southeast Atlantic Coast: U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 2005-1326 U.S. Geological Survey, 2007, Facing tomorrows challengesU.S. Geological Survey science in the decade 2007-2017: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1309, x + 70 p. U.S. Geological Survey, 2009, National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center 2009 National Workshop Summary, accessed July 15, 2010 at http://nccwsc.usgs.gov/documents/NCCWSC_2009_National_Workshop_Summary.pdf. White, S.A. and Sellars, J., 2004, Creation of the digital elevation model for the North Carolina sea level rise project. NOAA National Geodetic Survey unpublished report. Williams, S.J., Gutierrez, B.T., Titus, J.G., Gill, S.K., Cahoon, D.R., Thieler, E.R., Anderson, K.E., FitzGerald, D., Burkett, V., and Samenow, J., 2009, Sea-level rise and its effects on the coast. In: Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region. A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. [J.G. Titus (coordinating lead author), K.E. Anderson, D.R. Cahoon, D.B. Gesch, S.K. Gill, B.T. Gutierrez, E.R. Thieler, and S.J. Williams (lead authors)]. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington DC, 1124 p.
Total Budget
2011 SECTION A. Principal Investigator Salary & Benefits B. Other Personnel Salary & Benefits Lauren Hay Thomas Doyle Roxolana Kashuba USGS NC monitoring and surveying staff Graduate student support Total Salary, Wages C. Equipment Stage gage, all installation direct expenses Cryogenic coring device to install SETs SET platform (portable) Data management and storage equipment D. Travel Flights Hotel Mileage and M&IE E. Participant/Conference Support Costs Tuition/Fees/Registration {other} F. Other Direct Costs Materials and Supplies Publication Costs Consultant Services ADP/Computer Services Subawards/Contracts Equipment of Facility Rental/User Fees Laboratory fees Total Direct Costs G. Indirect Costs (Overhead/Burden)
Bureau Center Overhead Lumped indirect costs through CESU H. Funds Requested (Direct + Indirect) I. Partner Contribution East Carolina University John Stanton travel and salary Dennis Stewart travel and salary The Nature Conservancy travel and labor
ITEMIZED
$32,900 $37,839 $7,537 $13,134
2012 TOTAL ITEMIZED TOTAL $45,752 $80,030 $104,806 $125,326 $0 $37,839 $49,260 $5,045 $150,557 $17,200 $205,357 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $21,500 $10,500 $1,500 $2,000 $7,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $0 $40,200 $18,000 $0 $18,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $230,457 $69,193 $234,857 $63,913 $24,081 $33,850 $5,982 $299,650 $56,591 $298,770 $31,602 $8,887 $6,400 $6,400 $9,915
2013 ITEMIZED TOTAL $57,128 $77,198 $0 $39,339 $8,454 $5,342 $134,326 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $9,000 $1,000 $1,500 $6,500 $1,000 $1,000 $0 $90,000 $0 $90,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $234,326 $64,774 $25,112 $35,276 $4,386 $299,100 $29,231 $6,516 $6,400 $6,400 $9,915
$11,200 $1,500 $1,500 $3,000
$3,200 $6,800 $11,500
$1,000 $0
$40,200 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$26,047 $40,800 $2,345
$4,801 $6,400 $6,400 $38,990
North Carolina Water Science Center

2011 SECTION A. Principal Investigator Salary & Benefits B. Other Personnel Salary & Benefits Lauren Hay Thomas Doyle Roxolana Kashuba USGS NC monitoring and surveying staff Graduate student support Total Salary, Wages C. Equipment Stage gage, all installation direct expenses Cryogenic coring device to install SETs SET platform (portable) Data management and storage equipment D. Travel Flights Hotel Mileage and M&IE E. Participant/Conference Support Costs Tuition/Fees/Registration {other} F. Other Direct Costs Materials and Supplies Publication Costs Consultant Services ADP/Computer Services Subawards/Contracts Equipment of Facility Rental/User Fees Laboratory fees Total Direct Costs G. Indirect Costs (Overhead/Burden)
Bureau Center overhead Lumped indirect costs through CESU H. Funds Requested (Direct + Indirect) I. Partner Contribution East Carolina University John Stanton travel and salary Dennis Stewart travel and salary The Nature Conservancy travel and labor
ITEMIZED
2012 TOTAL ITEMIZED TOTAL $45,752 $80,030 $20,671 $54,305
2013 ITEMIZED TOTAL $57,128 $13,796
$7,537 $13,134 $66,422 $17,200 $11,200 $1,500 $1,500 $3,000 $17,500 $2,000 $5,500 $10,000 $1,000 $1,000
$49,260 $5,045 $134,336 $0
$8,454 $5,342 $70,924 $0
$8,000 $1,000 $1,000 $6,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $6,000
$8,000
$1,000
$40,200 $40,200 $18,000
$18,000 $90,000
$90,000
$142,322 $41,587 $17,079 $24,508 $183,909 $51,790 $6,400 $6,400 $38,990 $6,400 $6,400 $9,915 $19,360 $27,910
$161,336 $47,271 $20,391 $29,336 $208,606 $22,715 $6,400 $6,400 $9,915
$169,924 $49,727
$219,651 $22,715
National Research Program (Denver)

2011 SECTION A. Principal Investigator Salary & Benefits B. Other Personnel Salary & Benefits Lauren Hay Thomas Doyle Roxolana Kashuba USGS NC monitoring and surveying staff Graduate student support Total Salary, Wages C. Equipment ITEMIZED TOTAL $32,900 $32,900 2012 ITEMIZED TOTAL $0 2013 ITEMIZED TOTAL $0
$32,900 $0
$0 $0
$0 $0
D. Travel Flights Hotel Transportation and M&IE E. Participant/Conference Support Costs Tuition/Fees/Registration {other} F. Other Direct Costs Materials and Supplies Publication Costs Consultant Services ADP/Computer Services Subawards/Contracts Equipment of Facility Rental/User Fees Laboratory fees Total Direct Costs G. Indirect Costs (Overhead/Burden)
$2,500 $700 $800 $1,000 $0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$35,400 $14,600 $4,248.00 $10,352.00 $50,000 $0
$0 $0
$0 $0
$0 $0
$0 $0
National Wetlands Research Center

2011 SECTION A. Principal Investigator Salary & Benefits B. Other Personnel Salary & Benefits Lauren Hay Thomas Doyle Roxolana Kashuba USGS NC monitoring and surveying staff Graduate student support Total Salary, Wages C. Equipment ITEMIZED TOTAL $37,839 $37,839 $37,839 2012 ITEMIZED TOTAL $37,839 $39,339 2013 ITEMIZED TOTAL $39,339
$37,839 $0
$37,839 $0
$39,339 $0
$1,500 $500 $500 $500 $0 $500 $500 $500
$1,500
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$39,339 $10,661 $4,720.68 $5,940.19 $50,000 $0 $4,720.68 $5,940.19
$39,339 $10,661 $4,720.69 $5,940.20 $50,000 $0
$39,339 $10,661
$50,000 $0
Piedmont-South Atlantic CESU (East Carolina University)

2011 SECTION A. Principal Investigator Salary & Benefits B. Other Personnel Salary & Benefits Lauren Hay Thomas Doyle Roxolana Kashuba USGS NC monitoring and surveying staff Graduate student support Total Salary, Wages C. Equipment ITEMIZED TOTAL $13,396 2012 ITEMIZED TOTAL $33,182 2013 ITEMIZED TOTAL $24,063
$13,396 $13,396 $0
$33,182 $33,182 $0
$24,063 $24,063 $0
$0 $500 $500 $0
$1,000 $500 $500 $0
$1,000
$0
$0
$0
$0
$13,396 $2,345
$34,182 $5,982
$25,063 $4,386
Lumped indirect costs through CESU H. Funds Requested (Direct + Indirect) I. Partner Contribution East Carolina University John Stanton travel and salary Dennis Stewart travel and salary The Nature Conservancy travel and labor
$2,345 $15,741 $4,801 $4,801
$5,982 $40,164 $8,887 $8,887
$4,386 $29,449 $6,516 $6,516
Loren L. Wehmeyer, Ph.D., P.E. Hydrologist, USGS North Carolina Water Science Center (919) 571-4094, llwehmey@usgs.gov Education Doctor of Philosophy - The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA (May 2008) Major: Geoscience (Water Resources emphasis) Master's Degree - The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA (May 2006) Major: Civil and Environmental Engineering Master's Degree - Upper Iowa University, Fayette, IA (December 2004) Major: Business Administration (Organizational Development emphasis) Bachelor's Degree - Gonzaga University, Spokane, WA (December 2002) Major: Civil Engineering Licensure Professional Engineer, State of North Carolina USGS Experience Hydrologist , U.S. Geological Survey, Raleigh NC, 2007-present Supervisor: Chad Wagner (919-571-4021, cwagner@usgs.gov) Lead project manager for multiple water-quality, surface water, and ecological flow modeling projects. Water Quality expertise: Delineation of floodplain versus in-stream sources and processes affecting water quality, including nutrient cycling and the effect of low dissolved oxygen on aquatic resources. Development, calibration, and validation of one, two, and three dimensional coupled hydrodynamic and water quality models, including the integration of models without prior documentation of integration at the time of development (HEC-RAS and WASP) as well as standard coupled models (HEC-RAS and CE-QUAL-W2). Saltwater intrusion in coastal rivers and adjacent wetlands. Surface water expertise: One, two and three dimensional hydrodynamic model development, calibration, and validation for rivers, floodplains, wetlands, and estuaries. Model domains as small as 7 miles to greater than 110 miles of river. Simulations of the effect of hydropower operations on the depth, duration, and timing of wetland inundation downstream. Statistical evaluation of surface water data to determine trends and the contribution of groundwater. Land use and climate change expertise: Pre- and post-development hydrologic impact modeling of residential areas, commercial development, and transportation. Research has included residential floodplain mapping theory and the quantification of historical land cover change on river and floodplain geomorphology. Sea level rise modeling and visualization using high resolution remotely sensed data. Ecological flow expertise: Relating hydrologic statistics to ecosystem needs. Quantifying site-specific water availability and simulating future water availability scenarios with implications affecting fish and wildlife. Research includes quantifying the predictive ability of different metrics for estimating aquatic ecosystem characteristics.
Selected publications 2009-2010 Wehmeyer, L., Weirich, F., and Cuffney, T., in-press. Effect of land cover change on runoff curve number estimation in Iowa, 1832-2001. Ecohydrology, 000:000-000. Wehmeyer, L., and Weirich, F., in-press. Effect of historic land cover change on runoff curve number estimation in Iowa. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 000:000-000. Wehmeyer, L., in-press. Effects of Hydropower Flow Rescheduling on Dissolved Oxygen in the Roanoke River, North Carolina, 2005-2009: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2010-XXXX, XX p. Wehmeyer, L., and Bales, J.D., 2009. Relation Between Flow and Dissolved Oxygen in the Roanoke River Between Roanoke Rapids and Jamesville, North Carolina, 19982005: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2009-5238, 42 p. Bradley, A.A. Wehmeyer, L., Chen, L.C., 2009. Evaluation of design flood frequency methods for Iowa streams. Iowa Highway Research Board Report TR-533, 106 p. Wehmeyer, L.L., Garcia, A.M., Wagner, C.R., 2010, 1-, 2- and 3-d hydrodynamic and water quality modeling of North Carolinas Roanoke River and floodplain. Proceedings of the 2010 USGS Modeling Conference, Denver, Colorado, June 10, 2010 [abs]. Wehmeyer, L.L., Bales, J.D., 2010. Effect of hydropower peaking and floodplain drainage on instream dissolved oxygen in the Roanoke River, North Carolina. Proceedings of the 2010 North Carolina Water Resources Research Institute (WRRI) Conference, Raleigh, North Carolina, March 30-31, 2010 [abs]. Wehmeyer, L.L., Garcia, A.M., Bales, J.D., 2010. When hydrologic monitoring meets complex modeling needs, composite models can come througheventually. Proceedings of the 2010 Land Grant and Sea Grant National Water Conference, Hilton Head, South Carolina, February 21-25, 2010 [abs]. Wehmeyer, L.L., 2010. Relation between hydropower dam releases and downstream dissolved oxygen in a coastal ecosystem. Proceedings of the 2010 Virginia Water Conference, Richmond, Virginia, March 8-9, 2010 [abs]. Wehmeyer, L., and Bales, J.D., 2009. Simulated Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Effects of Dam Releases and Permitted Discharges on an Estuarine-Influence Portion of the Roanoke River, North Carolina, 1997-2007. Proceedings of the 2009 Annual American Water Works Association-Water Environment Association Conference, Nov.16, 2009, Raleigh, NC, 10 p. Wehmeyer, L., and Weirich, F., 2009. Effect of historic land cover change on composite runoff curve number estimation in Iowa. Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Forests and Water in a Changing Environment, September 14-16, 2009, Raleigh, North Carolina [abs]. Buell, G.R., Calhoun, D.L. and Wehmeyer, L., 2009. Hydrologic and land-use/land-cover metrics used in ecological assessments of six U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service national wildlife refuges in the Southeastern USA. Proceedings of the 2009 Georgia Water Resources Conference, April 27, 2009, Athens, GA, 8 p. Wehmeyer, L., Powell, J., Bales, J.D., and Garcia, A.M., 2009. Application to the Mobile River of Lessons Learned from Flow and Water Quality Modeling in the Lower Roanoke River, North Carolina. Proceedings of the Alabama Water Environment Association Conference, April 19-21, 2009, Orange Beach, Alabama [abs]. Wehmeyer, L., Bales, J.D., and Garcia, A.M., 2009. In-Stream Flow and Floodplain Inundation Modeling in the Lower Roanoke River Corridor, 1997-2007. Proceedings of the 2009 Virginia Water Conference, March 8-10, 2009, Richmond, Virginia [abs].
CURRICULUM VITAE THOMAS W. DOYLE, Ph.D. CURRENT POSITION: WORK ADDRESS: Supervisory Ecologist U.S. Geological Survey National Wetlands Research Center 700 Cajundome Blvd., Lafayette, LA 70506 (337) 266-8647, fax-8586 Email: tom_doyle@usgs.gov
EDUCATION - Ph. D., University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, 1983, Ecology - M.S., University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, 1980, Ecology - B.S., Northeast Louisiana University, Monroe, LA 1976, Biology RESEARCH INTERESTS Ecosystem analysis and modeling with a special emphasis on tree-ring applications, forest succession, and landscape simulation models, role of natural and anthropogenic disturbance and climate change on forest structure and diversity of coastal ecosystems of the southeastern United States and Caribbean regions. SPATIAL SIMULATION MODELS AND DECISION-SUPPORT TOOLS created for environmental assessment needs and ecosystem management of Department of Interior trust lands and species. Listing of model acronyms and function: ATCHBAS: Atchafalaya Basin Flood Inundation Model CONGFLO: Congaree Swamp Floodplain Inundation Model CONGFOR: Congaree Swamp Forest Landscape Simulation Model FORICO: Gap succession model for tropical montane rain forest HURACAN: Hurricane windspeed and wind vector simulation model HURASIM: Hurricane tracking and windspeed visualization model INVASIV: Invasive Species Spread and Hurricane Circulation Model MANGRO: Mangrove Forest Succession Model SELVA: Spatially Explicit Landscape Vegetation Analysis model SLOPE: Sea Level Overland Proportional Elevation model SLRRP: Sea Level Rise Rectification Program model WETLANDS: Wetlands hydrology and habitat simulation model
SELECTED PUBLICATIONS Doyle, T. W., T. J. Smith, and M. B. Robblee. 1995. Wind damage effects of Hurricane Andrew on mangrove communities of southwest Florida. J. of Coastal Research 18: 159-168.
Doyle, T. W., B. D. Keeland, L. E. Gorham, D. J. Johnson. 1995. Structural impact of Hurricane Andrew on forested wetlands of the Atchafalaya Basin in coastal Louisiana. Journal of Coastal Research 18:354-364. Doyle, T. W. and G. Girod. 1997. The frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes and their influence on the structure of south Florida mangrove communities. Ch. 7. pp. 111-128. IN: H. Diaz and R. Pulwarty (eds.), Hurricanes, Climatic Change and Socioeconomic Impacts: A Current Perspective, Westview Press, New York, N.Y. pp325. Doyle, T.W. 1998. Modeling global change effects on coastal forests. Ch.6, pgs.67-80. In G.R. Guntenspergen and B.A. Vairin, editors. Vulnerability of coastal wetlands in the Southeastern United States: climate change research results. 1992-1997. USGS Biological Resources Division Biological Science Report USGS/BRD/BSR-1998-0002. Doyle, T.W., Day, R.H., and Biagas, J.M., 2003, Predicting coastal retreat in the Florida Big Bend region of the gulf coast under climate change induced sea-level rise Ning, Z.H., Turner, R.E., Doyle, T., and Abdollahi, K., 2003, Integrated assessment of the climate change impacts on the Gulf Coast Region: Baton Rouge, La., GRCCC and LSU Graphic Services, 201-209. Doyle, T.W., Girod, G.F., and Books, M.A., 2003, Modeling mangrove forest migration along the southwest coast of Florida under climate change, in Ning, Z.H., Turner, R.E., Doyle, T., and Abdollahi, K., 2003, Integrated assessment of the climate change impacts on the Gulf Coast Region: Baton Rouge, La., GRCCC and LSU Graphic Services, pp. 211-221. Conner, W.H., T.W. Doyle, and K.W. Krauss. 2007. Ecology of Tidal Freshwater Forested Wetlands of the Southeastern United States, Springer, NY, 500 pp. Springer, NY, pp. 411-446. Berger, U., Rivera-Monroy, V.H., Doyle, T.W., Dahdouh-Guebas, F., Duke, N.C., Fontalvo-Herazo, M.L., Hildenbrandt, H., Koedam, N., Mehlig, U., Piou, C., and Twilley, R.R. 2008. Advances and limitations of individual-based models to analyze and predict dynamics of mangrove forests: a review. Aquatic Botany 89: 260-274. Doyle, T.W. 2009. Hurricane frequency and landfall distribution for coastal wetlands of the gulf coast, USA. Wetlands 29: 3543. Doyle, T.W. 2009. Modeling flood plain hydrology and forest productivity of Congaree Swamp, South Carolina: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2009 5130, 46 p. Doyle, T.W., Krauss, K.W., Conner, W.H., and From, A.S. 2010. Predicting the retreat and migration of tidal forests along the northern Gulf of Mexico under sea-level rise. Forest Ecology and Management 259: 770-777.
Roxolana O. Kashuba
Education
Environmental Modeler, United States Geological Survey, 3916 Sunset Ridge Road, Raleigh, NC 27607 Phone: 919.571.4088, Fax: 919.571.4041, rkashuba@usgs.gov
Duke University, Durham, North Carolina Nicholas School of the Environment, Division of Environmental Sciences and Policy Ph.D. in Statistical Water Quality Modeling. May 2010. Dissertation title: Bayesian methods to characterize uncertainty in predictive modeling of the effect of urbanization on aquatic ecosystems. Committee: Kenneth Reckhow (advisor), Song Qian, Gerard McMahon, Thomas Cuffney, Emily Bernhardt. University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, Illinois School of Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Division M.S. in Environmental Science. August 2003. Thesis title: Characterization of Short-term Fine Particulate Matter Measurement in Region 5. Committee: Peter Scheff (advisor), Serap Erdal, Robert Anderson. Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois B.A. in Chemistry with biochemistry focus; minor in Psychology. June 2001.
Research Interests
Water quality modeling, statistical methods, environmental management decisions, uncertainty characterization
Publications
A. Refereed Publications Kashuba, R., Cuffney, T., McMahon, G., Reckhow, K., Gerritsen, J. and Davies, S. Parameterizing the Biological Condition Gradient in the northeast United States using a Bayesian network approach. (In review) Kashuba, R., Cuffney, T., Qian, S., Reckhow, K. Combining expert knowledge with data to develop a Bayesian network describing the impact of urbanization on aquatic macroinvertebrate communities in the southeast United States. U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2010-XXXX, XXp. (In review) Kashuba, Roxolana Oresta. Bayesian methods to characterize uncertainty in predictive modeling of the effect of urbanization on aquatic ecosystems. Ph.D. dissertation, Duke University, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10161/2366 Cuffney, T.F., Kashuba, R., Qian, Song S., Alameddine, I., Cha, Y., Lee. B., Coles, J.F. and McMahon, G. Multilevel regression models describing regional patterns of invertebrate and algal responses to urbanization across the United States. (In press) Kashuba, R., Cha, Y., Alameddine, I., Lee, B., and Cuffney, T. Multilevel Hierarchical Modeling of Benthic Macroinvertebrate Responses to Urbanization in Nine Metropolitan Areas across the Conterminous United States. U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2009-5243, 88p. Cuffney, T.F., McMahon, G., Kashuba, R., May, J.T., and Waite, I.A. responses of Benthic Macroinvertebrates to Environmental Changes Associated with Urbanization in Nine Metropolitan Areas of the Conterminous United States. In Webb, Richard M.T., and Darius Semmens, eds, Proceedings of the Third Interagency Conference on Research in the Watersheds, September 8-11, 2008. Page 1
Roxolana O. Kashuba
Invited Presentations
Kashuba, Roxolana, Cuffney, T.F., McMahon, G., Qian, S., Reckhow, K., Gerritsen, J., and Davies, S. 2010. Using a Bayesian Network Approach to Model the Effects of Urbanization on the Condition of Benthic Macroinvertebrate Assemblages in the Northeast U.S. as Defined by the Biological Condition Gradient. Presented at Seventh National Monitoring Conference (Denver, Colorado). Kashuba, Roxolana. 2010. Developing New Approaches to Model the Effects of Urbanization. Presented at Research Triangle Institute Water Group Seminar (Research Triangle Park, North Carolina). Kashuba, Roxolana. 2009. A Bayesian network example: Parameterizing the Biological Condition Gradient in the northeast United States. Guest lecturer for Water Quality Modeling (ENV335) at Duke University (Durham, North Carolina). Kashuba, Roxolana. 2009. Bayesian Network Overview. Presented at Massachusetts Water Science Center EUSE Modeling Project Collaboration and Data Solicitation Meeting (Northborough, Massachusetts). Kashuba, Roxolana. 2009. Expert elicitation, Bayesian networks, and Southeast US modeling process. Presented at Maine-EUSE-EPA-Duke BCG (Biological Condition Gradient) Project Meeting (Portland, Maine). Kashuba, Roxolana. 2009. Expert elicitation: what is it and when do you use it. Guest lecturer for Reckhow Water Quality Statistics Laboratory Meeting (Durham, North Carolina). Kashuba, Roxolana. 2009. Northeast US Bayesian network urban driver expert elicitation. Presented at Northeast Biological Condition Gradient (BCG) Bayesian Network Urban Expert Meeting (Baltimore, Maryland).
Research Experience
Aquatic Ecosystem Statistical Modeling, U.S. Geological Survey (2008-present) Research Hydrologist: Quantifying the effect of urbanization on aquatic stream biota (macroinvertebrates, algae, and fish) at multiple scales using innovative hierarchical multilevel techniques and Bayesian networks. Developing a method for parameterizing the Biological Condition Gradient (BCG) for Effect of Urbanization on Stream Ecosystems (EUSE) dataset, incorporating expert elicitation and Bayesian uncertainty characterization. Interpreting ecosystem response in terms predictive probability of meeting water quality criteria due to urban impairment. Statistical Water Quality Modeling and Decision Analysis, Duke University (2006-2008) Research Assistant: Developed hierarchal Bayesian model (using interrelated data, process, and parameter tiers) describing larval survival in a river in time and space, as affected by covariate data (temperature, discharge) and multiple, different error terms. Simulated data sets, then sampled from the joint distribution of coefficients and error terms to verify model form. Model can be expanded to predict survival distributions resulting from different management decisions and variable environmental conditions. Pesticide Aquatic Fate Modeling and Ecological Risk Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2004-2006) Environmental Scientist (GS-12): Synthesized multiple scientific sources of information (lab studies, models, expert judgment) to predict integrated pesticide fate in various application scenarios. Reviewed pesticide environmental fate studies for scientific validity, logic, and coherence. Modeled hydrolytic, photolytic, and metabolic breakdown of pesticides of varying acidity, solubility, and mobility. Characterized environmental exposure as part of an ecological risk assessment process. Negotiated risk mitigation measures via communication of scientific inferences to decision-making audiences. Critically evaluated and peer reviewed risk assessment-related work products. Page 2
ENRIQUE REYES a. Profesional Preparation Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana. Mex. Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico. Louisiana State University. Chesapeake Biological Laboratory. Biology B. S. 1983 Biological Oceanography M. S. 1988 Marine Sciences Ph. D. 1992 Landscape Ecology Post-Doc. 1995
b. Appointments 2005- present. Associate Professor. Dept. of Biology, East Carolina University. c. Publications (from a total of 30) 1. Reyes E., 2009. Wetland Landscape Spatial Models. In: G.M.E. Perillo, E. Wolanski, D.R. Cahoon, M.M. Brinson, (eds.), Coastal Wetlands: An Integrated Ecosystem Approach. Elsevier, p. 885. ISBN: 978-0-444-53103-2. 2. Reyes E., J.W. Day, A.L. Lara-Dominguez, P. Sanchez-Gil, D. Zarate-Lomeli, A. YanezArancibia. 2005. Assessing coastal management plans using watershed spatial models for the Mississippi delta, USA, and the Usumacinta-Grijalva delta, Mexico. Ocean & Coastal Management 47 (2004) 693708 3. Reyes E., J.F. Martin, M.L. White, J.W. Day, G.P. Kemp, 2003. Habitat changes in the Mississippi Delta: future scenarios and alternatives. Chap. 5. 119-142, In: R. Costanza and A. Voinov (eds.), Landscape Simulation Modeling: A spatially explicit, dynamic approach. Springer-Verlag. New York. 4. Martin, J.F., E. Reyes, G.P. Kemp, J.W. Day, H. Mashriqui. 2002. Landscape Modeling of the Mississippi Delta. BioScience. 52(4): 357-365. 5. Reyes E., M.L. White, J.F. Martin, G.P. Kemp, J.W. Day, V. Aravamuthan, 2000. Landscape Modeling of Coastal Habitat Change in the Mississippi Delta. Ecology. 81(8): 2331:2349. 6. Reyes E., F.H. Sklar, J.W. Day Jr. 1994. Modeling Approach for Fish Migration across a Landscape: the regional organism exchange (ROE) model. Ecological Modelling. 74: 256-276. d. Synergistic Activities Ad hoc reviewer for: Ecological Economics. Elsevier Press; Environmental Modeling and Assessment. Baltzer Science Publishers; Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science; Ecological Modelling. Elsevier Press; Wetlands Ecology and Management; Ecosystems. Springer. Forest Ecology and Management. Elsevier Press; Environmental Management. Springer. Review Panelist for: NSF 1999, 2004 and 2010; US Global Change Research Program 1999; EPA Aquatic Ecology and Ecosystems 2001 and 2002; California Sea Grant 2001; Hawaii Sea Grant 2004; NOAA Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research 2010. NOAA Coastal Ocean Program in Coastal Hypoxia Research Program. 2005.
Teaching: BIOL 6128. Systems Ecology. Certificate Course: Manejo Integrado de la Zona Costera. Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana, Mexico. BIOL6850 & BIOL6994. Ecosystems of Coastal Cities. BIOL7300 Landscape Ecology. Certificate Course: Ecology of Estuarine and Coastal Tropical Ecosystems. Inst. de Ecologa, Xalapa, CRM6300. Ecological Dimensions of Coastal Zone Management. Certificate Course: Ecologa de Sistemas. Institut de Recerce I Tecnologia Agroalimentaries, Ecosistemes Aqutics. Sant Carles de la Rpita. Taragona, Spain. BIOL4320 Ecological Responses to Global Climate Change. Certificate Course: Ecologa Regional. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografa. Bahia Blanca, Argentina. BIOL6992 Ecological Modeling. e. Collaborator & Other Affiliations (i) Collaborators Morris, James, Univ. of South Carolina; Callaway, John, San Francisco State Univ.; Visser, Jenneke, Coastal Ecology Institute, Louisiana State University; Day, J.W, Coastal Ecology Institute, Louisiana State University; Davis, S., Texas A&M University; Kemp, G.Paul, Special Programs, Center for Coastal, Estuarine and Environmental Resources. Louisiana State University; Perez, Brian C. National Wetlands Research Center, USGS; Giorgiu, Ioannis. Environmental Engnr Dept. UNO; Reed, Denise. Geol. & Geoph. Dept. UNO; Martin, Jay, Cntr Ecological Engineering, Ohio State University. (ii) Graduate and Postdoctoral Advisors Martin Merino-Ibarra, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (Masters advisor). John W. Day, Louisiana State University. (Ph. D. advisor). Robert Costanza, University of Maryland System, (Postdoctoral Sponsor). (iii) Thesis Advisor and Postgraduate-Scholar Sponsor Total number of postgraduate advisees (8). David Kunz, MS ECU (2009); Susanne Hoeppner Ph.D. LSU (2007); Haley Blakeman MURP UNO (2006); Caroline Quidort MURP UNO (2006); Rebecca Murphey M.S. UNO (2004); Tanaporn Sakulpitakphon M.S. UNO (2004); Emily Hyfield M.S. LSU (2004); Robert Lane Ph.D. LSU (2003); Lorna Inniss Ph.D. (2002). Fisheries Ministry of Barbados; Ana Laura Lara Ph.D. (2001). Institute of Ecology, Mexico; Arturo Bernal MS.(2000). Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana; Jay Martin. Ph.D. (2000). Ohio State University; Carlos Coronado. Ph.D. (2000). South Florida Water Management District; Martha Sutula Ph.D. (1999). Southern California Coastal Water Research Project.
LAUREN ELIZABETH HAY Professional Preparation PhD Geography. University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, 1996 MS Hydrology. University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, 1986 BS Geology. Tufts University, Medford, Massachusetts, 1982 Relevant Appointments 2007-present: Project Chief of the Modeling of Watershed Systems research group, National Research Program, USGS, Denver, Colorado. 1989-2007: Research Hydrologist, project member of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling research group, National Research Program, USGS, Denver, Colorado. 1986-1989: Hydrologist, USGS, New Jersey District Office. Relevant Work Experience Research has the broad goal of understanding precipitation-runoff processes and developing improved hydrologic models. Specific objectives are to investigate watershed hydrologic processes to: (1) improve understanding of watershed system dynamics; (2) develop computer models to simulate and evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on streamflow, sediment yield, and other hydrologic components; (3) develop procedures and techniques to estimate model parameters using measurable watershed and climatic characteristics; and (4) develop techniques for data integration. Past research objectives included: (1) spatial and temporal distribution of climate variables for hydrologic modeling; (2) statistical and dynamical downscaling of atmospheric models; (3) hydrologic forecasting; and (4) model calibration. Recent Publications (see http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/projects/SW_MoWS/pubs/hay_pubs/hayPubs.php for a complete list) Hay, L.E., McCabe, G.J., Wolock, D.M., and Ayers, M.A., 1992, Use of weather types to disaggregate general circulation model predictions: Journal of Geophysical Research, 97(D3). Hay, L.E., Wilby, R.L., and Leavesley, G.H., 2000, A Comparison of Delta Change and Downscaled GCM Scenarios for Three Mountainous Basins in the United States: Journal of American Water Resources, 36(2). Hay, L.E., M.P. Clark, R.L. Wilby, W.J. Gutowski, G.H. Leavesley, Z. Pan, R.W. Arritt, and E.S. Takle, 2002, Use of regional climate model output for hydrologic simulations: Journal of Hydrometeorology, 3. Hay, L.E. and M.P. Clark, 2003, Use of statistically and dynamically downscaled atmospheric model output for hydrologic simulations in three mountainous basins in the western United States: Journal of Hydrology, 282.
Clark, M.P., and Hay, L.E., 2004, Use of Medium-Range Numerical Weather prediction Model Output to Produce Forecasts of Streamflow: Journal of Hydrometeorology, 5(1). Hay, L.E., M.P. Clark, M. Pagowski, G.H. Leavesley, and W.J. Gutowski, Jr., 2006b, One-way Coupling of an Atmospheric and a Hydrologic Model in Colorado: Journal of Hydrometeorology, 7(4. Hay, L.E., Leavesley, G.H., Clark, M.P., Markstrom, S.L., Viger, R.J., and Umemoto, M., 2006, Step-Wise, Multiple-Objective Calibration Of A Hydrologic Model For A SnowmeltDominated Basin: Journal of American Water Resources, 42(4). Hay, L.E., McCabe, G.J., Clark, M.P., and Risley, J.C., 2010, Reducing streamflow forecast uncertainty: application and qualitative assessment of the Upper Klamath River Basin, Oregon: Journal of American Water Resources. Markstrom, S.L. and Hay, L.E., 2009, Integrated Watershed Scale Response to Climate Change for Selected basins Across the United States: Water Resources Impact, 11(2).
NAME
Donald R. Cahoon
Date: July 13, 2010
PRESENT ADDRESS U.S. Geological Survey, Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, c/o BARC-East, Bldg 308, 10300 Baltimore Ave, Beltsville, MD 20705 EDUCATION BA, Botany, Drew University, 1972; MS, Plant Ecology, University of Maryland, 1975; PhD, Plant Ecology, University of Maryland, 1982 RELEVANT EXPERIENCE Don Cahoon, a senior research ecologist with the U. S. Geological Survey, has more than 30 years experience investigating wetland plant ecology, wetland accretionary processes, and wetland restoration and management; and has published his findings in > 130 research papers and reports. He has developed a research approach for measuring wetland elevation dynamics (surface elevation tables (SET) used in conjunction with artificial soil marker horizons), which is being used in 23 countries by 70 coastal scientists. He and his colleagues have developed a global network of elevation monitoring sites using standard measurement protocols (SET and marker horizons) on coastal wetlands to give an advance warning of change, new predictive models to determine the long-term potential for submergence of coastal wetlands, and new elevation monitoring technology to improve our understanding of subsurface process influences on elevation. These developments are being used to determine the vulnerability of coastal wetlands to global change (e.g., sea-level rise and storms), the critical driving forces and subsurface processes controlling elevation for a wide range of wetland types, and the impact of current wetland management and restoration practices on elevation dynamics and wetland stability. FIVE RELEVANT PUBLICATIONS Cahoon DR, Hensel PF, Spencer T, Reed DJ, McKee KL, Saintilan N. 2006. Coastal wetland vulnerability to relative sea-level rise: wetland elevation trends and process controls. Pages 271-292, In: J. T. A. Verhoeven, B. Beltman, R. Bobbink, and D. Whigham (Eds.). Wetlands and Natural Resource Management. Ecological Studies, Volume 190, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Morris, J. T., P. V. Sundareshwar, C. T. Nietch, B. Kjerfve, and D. R. Cahoon. 2002. Responses of coastal wetlands to rising sea level. Ecology 83: 2869-2877. Cahoon, D. R. 2006. A review of major storm impacts on coastal wetland elevation. Estuaries and Coasts 29(6A):889-898. Cahoon, D. R., D. J. Reed, and J. W. Day, Jr. 1995. Estimating shallow subsidence in microtidal salt marshes of the southeastern United States: Kaye and Barghoorn revisited. Marine Geology 128: 1-9. McKee, K. L., D. R. Cahoon and I. C. Feller. 2007. Caribbean mangroves adjust to rising sea-level through biotic controls on change in soil elevation. Global Ecology and Biogeography 16:545-556.
FIVE OTHER SIGNIFICANT PUBLICATIONS Nuttle, W., M. Brinson, and D. Cahoon, et al. 1997. Processes that maintain coastal wetlands in spite of rising sea level. Eos 78(25): 257, 260-261, June 24, 1997. Cahoon, D. R., J. W. Day, Jr., and D. J. Reed. 1999. The influence of surface and shallow subsurface soil processes on wetland elevation: a synthesis. Current Topics in Wetland Biogeochemistry 3: 72-88. Rybczyk, J. M. and D. R. Cahoon. 2002. Estimating the potential for submergence for two subsiding wetlands in the Mississippi River delta. Estuaries 25: 985-998. Ford, M. A., D. R. Cahoon, and J. C. Lynch. 1999. Restoring marsh elevation in a rapidly-subsiding salt marsh by thin-layer deposition of dredged material. Ecological Engineering 12: 189-205 Erwin, R. M., D. Cahoon, D. Prosser, G. Sanders, and P. F. Hensel. 2006. Surface elevation dynamics in vegetated Spartina marshes versus unvegetated tidal ponds along the mid-Atlantic coast, USA, with implications to water birds. Estuaries 29: 96-106. SYNERGISTIC ACTIVITIES Co-edited a book titled Coastal Wetlands: an integrated ecosystem approach with G. Perillo, E. Wolanski, and M. Brinson; publisher is Elsevier. A lead author on CCSP SAP 4.1 report on sea-level rise and its potential effects on coastal systems; with EPA, NOAA and other USGS authors (Anderson, Williams, Thieler, Gutierrez). Member of Scientific and Technical Working Group of the Maryland Commission on Climate Change, preparing a report on sea-level rise effects on tidal wetlands of Maryland COLLABORATORS Denise Reed, UNO; David Nemerson, NAIB; Susan Adamowicz, USFWS; Charles Roman, NPS; Karen McKee, USGS; James Grace, USGS; John Brock, USGS; Sara Stevens, NPS; Greg Steyer, USGS; Tom Reiss, USGS; Philippe Hensel, NOAA; Tom Smith, USGS;
Robert A. Mickler Program Manager Alion Science and Technology, Inc. 1000 Park Forty Plaza, Suite 200 Durham, North Carolina 27713 Phone: 919-406-2104; Fax: 919-549-4665 Email: r.mickler@alionscience.com EDUCATION: Bachelors of Science; Cornell University (1976) Post-Baccalaureate Studies; Vassar College, North Carolina State University SPECIAL QUALIFICATIONS: Develop and implement science assessments for the US Department of Defense, the US Department of Interior, and the US EPA and USDA Forest Service in the Global Change Research Program investigating the impact of atmospheric and climatic change to terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Research includes the development of sea level rise modeling and risk assessments, terrestrial carbon budgets, the use of GIS and remote sensing technologies linked to forest physiological models to examine forest productivity at the local to national scale, and the development, application and validation of improved aircraft or satellite-based remote sensing applications for quantifying fuel types, fuel condition and loading, fire hazard, fire behavior, and effects such as fire distribution and severity. Major publication accomplishments include: the coediting and co-authoring of a science assessment books published by Springer-Verlag entitled, The Productivity and Sustainability of Southern Forest Ecosystems in a Changing Environment and Responses of Northern U.S. Forests to Environmental Change, and serving as author/editor for two special issues compilations of terrestrial carbon research for Elseviers Journal of Environmental Pollution and Springer-Verlags journal Environmental Management. Develop and implement the foliar nutrients and toxins bioindicator for the US EPA Environmental Monitoring Assessment Program (EMAP-Forest) for the determination of current status, extent, changes, and trends in the condition of our nation's ecological resources on regional and national scales. Establish a comprehensive science assessment program for the US National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program's Southern Commercial Forest Research Cooperative investigating the effects of atmospheric pollutants on forests. Major accomplishments include the coediting and co-authoring of a science assessment book published by Springer-Verlag entitled, Impact of Air Pollutants on Southern Pine Forests. SPECIFIC WORK/TASK EXPERIENCE: North Carolina State University, Department of Forestry, Adjunct Faculty, 1986-Present Alion Science and Technology Inc., Research Triangle Park, NC, 1986-present New York Botanical Garden Cary Arboretum, Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY, 19771986.
PROFESSIONAL MEMBERSHIPS/LICENSES: American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing Ecological Society of America The Association for Fire Ecology North Carolina Division of Forest Resources Certified Prescribed Burner HONORS AND AWARDS USDA Forest Service Commendations US EPA Commendations SELECTED PUBLICATIONS: Mickler, R.A. and D. Welch. 2010. Mitigation strategies for reducing sea level rise impacts to coastal ecosystems. Coastal Management (In Press). Mickler, R.A. and D. Welch. 2010. Sea level rise risk assessment for North Carolina coastal ecosystems. Journal of Coastal Research (In Press). Mickler, R.A. and D. Welch. 2009. Sea Level Rise Risk Assessment for DoD Coastal Installations. Department of Defense Legacy Resource Management Program. Arlington, VA., Project # 08-410. pp.1-639. Bailey, A.D., Mickler, R. and Frost, C. 2007. Presettlement fire regime and vegetation mapping in southeastern coastal plain forest ecosystems. In: Butler, W., Cook, W. comps. The fire environment-innovations, management, and policy. 26-30 March 2007, Destin Florida. Proceedings RMRS-P-46. Fort Collins, CO; U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. pp. 1-12. Mickler, R.A. 2006. Reintroduction of Prescribed Fire in Coastal Plain Ecosystems to Reduce Wildland Fire Risk. Department of Defense Legacy Resource Management Program. Arlington, VA., Project # 05-252. pp. 1-74, 8 maps. Mickler, R.A., J. Smith, and L.S. Heath. 2004. Forest carbon trends in the southern United States. USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Asheville, NC, General Technical Report SRS75, Chapter 33. p. 383-394. Mickler, R.A., S.G. McNulty, R.A. Birdsey, and J. Hom. 2003. Responses of forests in the eastern US to air pollution and climate change. In: Karnosky, D.F., Percy, K.E., Chappelka, A.H., Simpson, C.J., and Pikkarainen, J. (Eds.). Air Pollution, Global Change and Forests in the New Millennium. Elsevier Science Ltd., Oxford, UK. pp. 345-358. Mickler, R.A., T. S. Earnhardt, and J. A. Moore. 2002. Modeling and Spatially Distributing Forest Net Primary Production at the Regional Scale. J. Air Waste Manage. Assoc. 52:174-185. Mickler, R.A., T. S. Earnhardt, and J.A. Moore. 2002. Regional estimation of current and future forest biomass. J. Environ. Pollution 116:S7-S16. Birdsey, R.A., R.A. Mickler, J.Hom, and L.S. Heath. 2000. Summary of Prospective Global Change Impacts on Northern U.S. forest Ecosystems. In: R.A. Mickler, R.A. Birdsey, and J.Hom (Eds.) Responses of Northern U.S. Forests to Environmental Change. Ecological Studies 139. Springer-Verlag, New York. Mickler R.A. 1998. Southern forest ecosystems in a changing chemical and physical environment. In: R.A. Mickler and S. Fox (Eds.) The Productivity and Sustainability of Southern Forest Ecosystems in a Changing Environment. Ecological Studies 128. Springer-Verlag, New York. Mickler, R.A. 1996. Southern Pine Forests of North America. In: Fox S. and R.A. Mickler (eds.) Impact of Air Pollutants on southern Pine Forest. Ecological Studies 118, Springer-Verlag, NY
.
Brian P. Boutin Climate Change Adaptation Project Director The Nature Conservancy Outer Banks Office, Kill Devil Hills, NC 27948 bboutin@tnc.org, 252-441-2525 Professional preparation University of Delaware University of North Carolina at Wilmington
Marine Biosciences Marine Biology
PhD BS
2008 2003
Employment 2009-present Climate Change Adaptation Project Director, The Nature Conservancy, North Carolina Chapter 2008-2009 Marine Biologist II, North Carolina Division of Marine Fisheries 2005-2008 Graduate Research Fellow, University of Delaware 2004-2005 Graduate Research Assistant, University of Delaware 2003 Research Technician, University of North Carolina at Wilmington 2002-2003 Intern Researcher, University of North Carolina at Wilmington Awards and Fellowships 2006 Graduate Student Travel Award, University of Delaware, Office of Graduate Studies 2004 Marian R. Okie Fellowship, University of Delaware, College of Marine and Earth Studies 2002-2003 NSF Cross-disciplinary Research at Undergraduate Institutions Internship, University of North Carolina at Wilmington Grants Received 2009-2011
2009
2005-2008
Southeast Aquatic Resources Partnership-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: Hydrologic restoration of coastal wetlands on North Carolinas Albemarle-Pamlico Peninsula, $47,500, Project Principal. Albemarle-Pamlico National Estuary Program: Building ecosystem resilience to climate change and sea-level rise through restoration of an estuarine habitat complex, $65,538, Project Principal. Estuarine Reserves Division, Office of Ocean and Coastal Resource Management, National Ocean Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: Evaluation of essential fish habitat for juvenile weakfish (Cynoscion regalis): Comparisons of habitat-specific density, biomass, growth, production, and food habits in tidal tributary and nearshore habitats of Delaware Bay, $30,000, Principal Investigator. Wildlife Conservation Society: Coastal adaptation and wetland restoration on Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge, $185,500, Project Principal.
Pending 2010
2010
2010
NASA, Carbon Cycle Science: Quantification of functional responses & transition thresholds of coastal ecosystems to climate change and sea level rise for adaptation and mitigation in the U.S. Southeast, $900,000, CoPrincipal Investigator. The Nature Conservancy-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: Demonstrating the value of natural communities for shoreline protection: restoration of oyster reefs, submerged aquatic vegetation, coastal wetlands, and maritime salt shrubs along a high energy, high-bank shoreline, $36,613, Co-Project Principal.
Publications Boutin BP, Targett TE (in prep) Functional value of tidal tributary and nearshore habitats as nurseries for juvenile weakfish Cynoscion regalis in Delaware Bay: biomass density, growth, production, and food habits. Estuaries and Coasts. Boutin BP, Targett TE (in prep) Fish and blue crab assemblage structure in marsh creeks of the Delaware Coastal Bays. Estuaries and Coasts. Invited member scientific advisory panels 2009-present Albemarle-Pamlico National Estuary Program 2009-present Submerged Aquatic Vegetation Partnership 2009-present National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration Ecosystem Effects of Sea Level Rise 2009-present Northern North Carolina Oyster Restoration Workgroup
CURRICULUM VITAE JOHN D. STANTON III Supervisory Wildlife Biologist, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service South Atlantic Migratory Bird Coordination Office Columbia, NC 27925(252)796-2400; John_Stanton@fws.gov
EDUCATION M.S. in Wildlife Biology; minor in Poultry Science (1991) North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC Thesis: "Summer survival and recruitment of hand-reared female mallards released on Remington Farms, Maryland B.S. in Wildlife Management (1986) University of Maine, Orono, ME Assoc. in Automotive Technology (1988) Southern Maine Technical College, S. Portland, ME PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE 1986 Research Associate, Delta Waterfowl and Wetlands Research Station, Manitoba, CANADA Graduate Assistant, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC. Wildlife Biologist, Bureau of Land Management, Roseburg, OR. Wildlife Biologist, Lake Ophelia National Wildlife Refuge, Marksville, LA. 1994- 2001 2001- 2003 Wildlife Biologist, Mattamuskeet National Wildlife Refuge, Swan Quarter, NC. Fish and Wildlife Biologist, Partners for Fish and Wildlife Program, Manteo, NC.
1988- 1990 1991 1992- 1994
2003- Present Supervisory Wildlife Biologist, USFWS, Division of Migratory Birds, Columbia, NC. PROFESSIONAL APPOINTMENTS 2009- Present Adjunct Professor, Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, Clemson University, South Carolina.
PROFESSIONAL SERVICE Co-Team Leader, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Services eastern NC/ southeastern VA U.S. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Strategic Habitat Conservation Team (2007-2008) Executive Board, North Carolina Chapter of The Wildlife Society (2008-2009) Certified Wildlife Biologist (1996) -The Wildlife Society Association of American Field Ornithologists AWARDS 2010 2007 2005 Regional Directors Honor Award for Outstanding Performance. Regional Directors Honor Award for Outstanding Performance. Distinguished Service Award, North Carolina Conservation Initiative, Ducks Unlimited.
SELECTED PUBLICATIONS H. Laskowski1, J. D. Stanton, E. Lonsdorf, J. Lyons, S. Brown, J. Coppen, F. Durbian, T. Jones, T. Leger, A. Milliken, Mark Seamans11, D. C. Brewer, and M. C. Runge. January 2008. A Case Study Final Report: Application of Structured Decision Making to Assess Multiple Scale Monitoring Needs for Waterbird Management. National Conservation Training Center, Shepherdstown, WV. 14pp. Stanton III, J. D. and S. King. Wetland restoration opportunities for private landowners in eastern North Carolina. Abstract in the Proceedings of International Conference Hydrology and Management of Forested Wetlands. Am. Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers. April 2006, New Bern, NC. 597pp. Stanton III, J. D., E.C. Soutiere and R. A. Lancia. 1992. Survival and reproduction of game-farm, female mallards at Remington Farms, Maryland. Wildlife Society Bulletin 20: 182-188. Numerous U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service internal wildlife habitat management plans and biological program review reports for individual refuges units of the National Wildlife Refuge System throughout the Southeast region.
Dennis L. Stewart Refuge Wildlife Biologist North Carolina Coastal Plains Refuge Complex U. S. Fish & Wildlife Service Manteo, NC 27954 dennis_stewart@fws.gov, 252-473-1131 x231 Professional preparation N. C. State University UNC-Greensboro N. C. State University
Wildlife Biology Biology/Ecology Science Ed/Biology
MS MEd BS
1984 1976 1970
Employment 1994-present Refuge Biologist, Alligator River and Pea Island National Wildlife Refuges, North Carolina Coastal Plains Refuge Complex, Manteo, NC 1982-1994 Wildlife Biologist, North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission 1979-1982 Teaching/Research Assistant, Department of Zoology, North Carolina State University 1973-1979 Public school teacher Earth Science (Geology), Greensboro, North Carolina 1971-1973 U. S. Army, Honorable Discharge 1970-1971 Public school teacher Physical Science, Greensboro, North Carolina Scientific Societies The Wildlife Society N. C. Chapter The Wildlife Society Selected Publications Stewart, D. L. 1981. Otters in North Carolina: A species in need of research. Friend O' Wildlife. 28(12). N. C. Wildlife Federation, Raleigh, N. C. Noffsinger, R. E., R. W. Laney, A. M. Nichols, D. L. Stewart and D. W. Steffeck. 1984. Prulean Farms, Inc., Dare County, North Carolina, A Fish and Wildlife Coordination Act Report. U. S. Department of the Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service, Division of Ecological Services, Raleigh, N. C. 200 pp + appendices. Laney, R. W., D. L. Stewart, G. R. McCrain, C. Mayes, and V. C. Bruton. 1988. Final Report on the North Carolina Department of Transportation Company Swamp Mitigation Bank, Bertie County, North Carolina. U. S. Department of the Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service, Raleigh, N. C. 37 pp + appendices. North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission. 1988. Policies and Guidelines for Conservation of Wetlands and Aquatic Habitats by D. L. Stewart, N. C. Wildlife Resources Commission, Raleigh, N. C. 57 pp.
Stewart, D. L. 1993 Day Shift Night Shift. Wildlife in North Carolina. N. C. Wildlife Resources Commission, Raleigh, N. C Dolan, R. and D. Stewart. 2006. A concept for reducing ecological impacts of beach nourishment and tidal inlet bypassing. Shore & Beach, 74(1), 28-31. Dolan, R., C. Donoghue, and D. Stewart. 2006. Long-term impacts of tidal inlet bypassing on the swash zone filter feeder Emerita talpoidea Oregon Inlet and Pea Island, North Carolina. Shore & Beach, 74(1), 23-27. Synergistic activities Invited member scientific advisory panels: The Nature Conservancy Climate Change Adaptation Project Scientific, technical, management performance I have oversight authority for a number of research and monitoring projects on two refuges and am called to assist with input at four additional refuges. Major projects include the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers dredging the Oregon Inlet Federal Navigation Channel and bypassing the sand to the Pea Island National Wildlife Refuge beach. At Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge I am the primary contact for the Climate Change Adaptation Project. I also have oversight responsibilities for wildlife crossings research relative to upgrading US Highway 64 from a 2-lane to a 4-lane facility across the refuge. I am frequently called upon to assist with highly controversial projects such as wild horse management at Currituck National Wildlife Refuge or water management at Pocosin Lakes and Roanoke River National Wildlife Refuges.
North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources

Beverly E. Perdue, Governor Dee A. Freeman., Secretary
Albemarle-Pamlico National Estuary Program
Bill Crowell, Director
February 18, 2010
To Whom It May Concern, I am pleased to write this letter of strong support for the U.S. Geological Surveys (USGS) proposal to the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, entitled: AP Peninsula Hydrologic Monitoring and Modeling to Support Ecosystem Adaption and Management. This effort will play a critical role in assisting local efforts to address the potential impacts associated with sea level rise on the Albemarle-Pamlico Peninsula. This project supports the Albemarle-Pamlico National Estuary Program (APNEP) mission and implementation of the Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan and will provide much needed information to guide efficient and cost effective adaptation measures. The Albemarle-Pamlico estuarine system is the second largest estuarine area in the United States. It supports a $1 billion fishing and ecotourism industry that is dependent on clean water and functional habitats. This project will make a significant contribution by helping provide information needed by the both private landowners and public land managers to apply adaptation measures and conservation practices to protect sensitive waters and decrease erosion, while protecting habitats and protecting water quality. The shorelines in Albemarle-Pamlico estuarine system are extremely vulnerable to the effects of accelerated erosion, often supplemented by anthropogenic alterations and sea-level rise. Concentrated efforts by both public and private partners in the region are needed to ensure a greater understanding of this dynamic system and prepare for the potentially devastating consequences to both public and private investments in the region. Through USGS efforts, APNEPs many partners are committed to building resilience into and restoring the lands and waters of the Albemarle-Pamlico area. The APNEP looks forward to assisting with the project and sharing results of this project with its other partners. Again, the Albemarle-Pamlico National Estuary Program strongly supports this project and its purpose. Please do not hesitate to contact me (919715-1327) if you have any questions. Sincerely,
William Crowell, AICP

1601 Mail Service Center, Raleigh, North Carolina 27699-1601 Phone: 919-715-4196 \ FAX: 919-715-3060 \ Internet: www. apnep.org
An Equal Opportunity \ Affirmative Action Employer 50% Recycled \ 10% Post Consumer Paper
United States Depar tment of Agr icultur e
For est Ser vice
Souther n Resear ch Station Souther n Global Change Pr ogr am
Dr . Ge Sun 920 Main Campus Dr . Suite 300 Ventur e Center II Raleigh, NC 27606 919-515-9498 Voice Ge_Sun@fs.fed.us
File Code: Date:
4000 February 19, 2010
TO WHOM IT MAY CONCERN
I have read the pre-proposal of Dr. Wehmeyer entitled "AP Peninsula Hydrologic Monitoring and Modeling to Support Ecosystem Adaption and Management" and think that the proposed activities will provide direct and significant support to ongoing studies of the USFS Southern Global Change Program in the region. Specifically, we are engaged in a series of studies in collaboration with North Carolina State University, the US Fish and Wildlife Service, The Nature Conservancy, and other partners to assess the impacts of climate change, sea level rise, and land use on coastal forest resources. To do this, we are performing a series top-down and bottom-up ecosystem studies using eddy-covariance methodology and detailed analyses of net primary production and soil carbon dynamics at a series of managed and unmanaged ecosystems in Washington and Dare Counties, North Carolina, including the Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge (ARNWR). In particular, we are quantifying the storage of C in plants and soils (pools), and the movement of C in to and out of ecosystems (fluxes) as a function of the mentioned global change factors. The proposed work will be particularly valuable to us in that it promises to better characterize the hydrologic regime of ARNWR that will complement our ongoing studies of forest evapotranspiration. This will allow us to close the site water balance and constrain the dissolved fluxes of carbon in surface water and groundwater. We are already performing measurements of dissolved organic carbon concentration, but need the hydrology data to calculate the carbon flux. As such, we fully support the proposed project and look forward to working with our partners of the USGS.
Sincerely,
Ge Sun, Ph.D. Research Hydrologist
Car ing for the Land and Ser ving People
Printed on Recycled Paper
DoD Natural Resources Conservation Program

Program Overview
The Department of Defenses (DoD) Natural Resources Conservation Program (NR Program) provides policy, guidance, and oversight for management of natural resources on approximately 30 million acres of military land, air, and water resources. The NR Programs goal is to ensure continued access to realistic habitat conditions to support the militarys combat readiness mission, while simultaneously working to ensure the long-term sustainability of our countrys priceless natural heritage. The three principles that guide the NR Program are stewardship, leadership, and partnership. Stewardship initiatives assist DoD in safeguarding its irreplaceable resources for future generations. By embracing a leadership role as part of the program, the DoD serves as a model for respectful use of natural and cultural resources. Through partnerships, the Program strives to access the knowledge and talents of individuals outside of DoD. DoD is responsible for managing and protecting 420 federally-listed species and 523 species at-risk. The NR Programs primary responsibilities are to: oversee development and implementation of natural resource-related policy, guidance, procedures, and metrics; ensure Military Service compliance with policies, Executive Orders, and legislative obligations; respond to Congressional inquiries; manage natural resources allocation programs; and coordinate with external stakeholders, including non -governmental organizations, states, and other federal agencies.
Sikes Act
First passed in September 1960, the Sikes Act as amended authorizes DoD to manage the natural resources under its stewardship. To do this, the Act requires that DoD develop comprehensive Integrated Natural Resources Management Plans (INRMPs) that are fully coordinated with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and appropriate state agency. To assist the Military Services, the NR Program provides guidance through policy for preparing and implementing INRMPs.
Policy and Guidance

Through policy statements, procedures and supplemental materials, the NR Program provides broad guidance to help the Military Services comply with all federal environmental laws, including the Sikes Act, National Environmental Policy Act, Endangered Species Act, Migratory Bird Treaty Act, the Marine Mammal Protection Act, and all relevant Executive Orders, e.g., 13514. DoD Instruction 4715.3 (under revision) is the NR Programs primary policy document. The reissued DoD Instruction will formalize new conservation metrics that evaluate seven key performance areas for each installations INRMP. These are:
Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune, NC
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.
INRMP Project Implementation Listed Species and Critical Habitat Partnerships Effectiveness Fish and Wildlife Management and Public Use Team Adequacy Ecosystem Integrity INRMP Impact on the Installation Mission
Defending Our Nation's Resources
Wildlife and Habitat Management

DoD is responsible for the lands and waters under its control. This includes managing and protecting 420 federally-listed species and 523 species at-risk. In addition to providing guidance and policy, the ways in which the NR Program does this include: participating in partnership-based conservation efforts, such as Partners in Flight, Partners in Amphibian and Reptile Conservation, and the Pollinator Partnership; creating outreach materials, such as the Invasive Species Outreach Toolkit and the Biodiversity Outreach Toolkit; developing educational events, such as a national pollinator workshop, and regional invasive species courses; and supporting safety programs, such as Bird Aircraft Strike Hazard (BASH) and wildland fire efforts.
Mojave Desert, Fort Irwin, CA
Outreach and Education

Each year, the DoD NR Program directly sponsors, attends, and/or actively participates in numerous natural resource and conservation-related conferences and meetings across the country. Events include the National Military Fish and Wildlife Association Annual Meeting, the Sustaining Military Readiness Conference, The Wildlife Society Annual Conference, and the annual SERDP/ESTCP Partners Symposium, to name a few. Through the Legacy Program, the NR Program also sponsors educational courses and workshops, such as the Sikes Act Introductory and Advanced Sikes Act training courses, regional State Wildlife Action Plan/Integrated Natural Resources Management Plan Integration workshops, and a variety of other workshops focusing on topics relating to threatened and endangered species, invasive species, and pollinators. Additional outreach materials include specific publications, such as the Natural Selections newsletter.
Funding
The Legacy Resource Management Program and the Forestry Reserve Account are funding mechanisms controlled by the DoD NR Program. The Legacy Program awards projects through a competitive process. Since its inception in 1991, Legacy has funded nearly 3,000 projects, totaling approximately $300 million. To be eligible, projects must: focus on regional or Black-Capped Vireo DoD-wide activities; Photo: USFWS support military operations, or legal or statutory requirements that go beyond installation-specific needs; and emphasize crosscutting conservation projects that support or leverage ongoing or new DoD initiatives, demonstrate cost efficiencies and time savings, or exhibit new and innovative ways of doing resource conservation on DoD lands. Forestry Reserve Account funds are awarded to projects on a competitive basis, and are primarily used to benefit forest resources. Funds result from the sale of forest products from military installations, with approximately $1-2 million per year awarded across the Military Services.
Emerging Issues
In addition to its current program portfolio, DoD also advances strategies to deal with emerging natural resources issues. Areas the NR Program will focus on in the near future include ecosystem services, expanding partnerships across geographic and geopolitical boundaries, and the impacts and implications of adapting to global climate change.
Contact Information:
L. Peter Boice Deputy Director, Natural Resources Department of Defense peter.boice@osd.mil www.DoDNaturalResources.net www.DoDLegacy.org https://www.denix.osd.mil/portal/page/portal/NaturalResources
January 2010

NC Sea Level Rise

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Ecosystem Adaptation to Rapidly-Rising Sea level in Tidal Wetlands of the Southeast Summary The effects of climate change are

$32,900 $37,839 $7,537 $13,134

$11,200 $1,500 $1,500 $3,000

$3,200 $6,800 $11,500

$26,047 $40,800 $2,345

$4,801 $6,400 $6,400 $38,990

North Carolina Water Science Center

2012 TOTAL ITEMIZED TOTAL $45,752 $80,030 $20,671 $54,305

2013 ITEMIZED TOTAL $57,128 $13,796

$49,260 $5,045 $134,336 $0

$8,454 $5,342 $70,924 $0

$40,200 $40,200 $18,000

$161,336 $47,271 $20,391 $29,336 $208,606 $22,715 $6,400 $6,400 $9,915

National Research Program (Denver)

$2,500 $700 $800 $1,000 $0

$35,400 $14,600 $4,248.00 $10,352.00 $50,000 $0

National Wetlands Research Center

$1,500 $500 $500 $500 $0 $500 $500 $500

$39,339 $10,661 $4,720.68 $5,940.19 $50,000 $0 $4,720.68 $5,940.19

$39,339 $10,661 $4,720.69 $5,940.20 $50,000 $0

Piedmont-South Atlantic CESU (East Carolina University)

$1,000 $500 $500 $0

$2,345 $15,741 $4,801 $4,801

$5,982 $40,164 $8,887 $8,887

$4,386 $29,449 $6,516 $6,516

Date: July 13, 2010

Marine Biosciences Marine Biology

1988- 1990 1991 1992- 1994

Wildlife Biology Biology/Ecology Science Ed/Biology

1984 1976 1970

North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources

Albemarle-Pamlico National Estuary Program

Bill Crowell, Director

February 18, 2010

William Crowell, AICP

United States Depar tment of Agr icultur e

For est Ser vice

Souther n Resear ch Station Souther n Global Change Pr ogr am

File Code: Date:

4000 February 19, 2010

TO WHOM IT MAY CONCERN

Ge Sun, Ph.D. Research Hydrologist

Car ing for the Land and Ser ving People

Printed on Recycled Paper

DoD Natural Resources Conservation Program

Policy and Guidance

Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune, NC

Defending Our Nation's Resources

Wildlife and Habitat Management

Mojave Desert, Fort Irwin, CA

Outreach and Education

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