Sundarban Coastline

a climate change concerned research hand-out : april-june 2008

SIDR-2007: Curse of Climate Change !

BHUTAN

BANGLADESH 16.11.07

INDIA

Dhaka

Barisal
15.11.07

Khulna
Bhola
INDIA Mongla
Barguna
Sundarban

Myanmar

Alternative Livelihood Program in the

Context of Climate Change (ALPCC) Project

PRODIPAN
Shaheb Bari Road
Moheswarpasha, Khulna-9203, Bangladesh
Email: ppnh@khulna.bangla.net/ mehdi.azam@yahoo.com
Editorial
The years of 1970, 1991 and 2007
will be memorized in history for
high-shocking cyclonic storms in the
Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh and West
Bengal of India. Due to geographical
location, Bangladesh has to face a
host of natural calamities almost
every year, especially in the coastal
areas occurring loss of valuable lives
and assets.
Statistics revealed that about 16%
cyclone, created in the Bay of
Bengal, hit the coastal areas of
Bangladesh. Following this trend
there is a possibility of 1.12 cyclones
in a year to be occurred. In the last
30 years, nearly 900,000 people
died by cyclones and six out of nine
depressions formed in the Bay of
Bengal normally cross the belt of
Bangladesh almost every year (Khan
and Sen, 2000). All of these severe
cyclones took place during the end
of the year i.e. during October and
November. The repeating history of
misfortune came back again in last
November in the name of ‘cyclone
Sidr’.
This hand-out is trying to give a
quick view on the Sidr and its
immediate impact on coastal areas.
Sidr-2007: Hardiest Hit of
Climate Change !
Tropical Cyclones & Global Climate Change
Over the last 50 years the intensity and average wind
speed of cyclones has changed (Table 1; Table 2). In
Bangladesh, cyclones originate in the Bay of Bengal,
proceeds to the coast, hit the coast and gradually turn into
weak land depression. But recently the cyclones are
staying in the land for a longer time and keep on battering
the sea.
It is general perception that different cyclonic storms and
tidal surges, including Sidr, were originated naturally.
Besides, natural factors, anthropogenic factors also were
responsible for such devastating phenomenon, like,
increasing sea surface temperature and ice-melting due to
global warming. Thus it helps in formation of cyclone and
carries vast amount of to the coast when cyclone
attacked. Ultimately the phenomenon increasing
frequency and intensity of cyclonic storm.
Table 1. Past 212 years recorded cyclones
Sl No. Duration No. of Cyclones
01 1795-1845 3
02 1846-1896 3
03 1897-1947 13
04 1948-2007 52
During 1795-2007 71
Source: BBS, 2002; Islam, 2005

Advisor
Ferdausur Rahman

Editorial Panel
Mehdi Azam
Azmal-Al-Noor
Ripon Kumar Ghose
Sazzadur Rahman Alin

Published By
ALPCC Project, Prodipan
Why Bangladesh is Vulnerable: What Says Expert
‰ Ali (1999) predicted that an increase in 2°C in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) increase in the probability of cyclone
formation from depression
‰ Agrawala et al., (2003) commented that the possibility to increase in peak intensities of cyclone may be 5-10% higher
and storm surge increase 20-30% in Bangladesh than current situation
‰ Increased SST above 26ºC will cause an increase in the formation of low pressure and depressions in sea
‰ Theoretical considerations shows that a 1°C rise in SST will increase the cyclone intensity by 4%, 2°C rise by 10%
and 4°C rise by 22% (Emanuel, 1987)
‰ A model analysis by Ali (1996) shows that storm surge heights will increase by 21% and 47% for a corresponding rise
in SST by 2°C and 4°C respectively for a particular location along the N-E coast of Bangladesh. The corresponding
increase in inland penetration of surges will increase respectively by 13% and 31% (Ali, 2000)
‰ SIDR attacked during low tide, but considering its intensity if it was attacked during high tide condition then storm surge
and severity of damages could be doubled.
‰ An increase in cyclone intensity will cause an increase in storm surge heights and the horizontal extent of flooding.
However, storm surge height of SIDR was comparatively low (10-15 ft) considering its intensity because it was
attacked during low tide (Table 2). Expert seems that, if it was happened in high tide, then storm surge height and
severity of damages could be more than doubled.

Table 2. Major storms since 1822

Date of Occurrence Max. Wind Speed (Km/hr) Storm Surge Height (ft) Death Toll
May 1822 - - 40,000
October 31, 1876 - 40 200,000
October 09, 1960 162 10 3,000
October 30-31, 1960 210 15-20 10,000
May 09, 1961 146 8-10 11,468
May 30, 1961 146 20-29 -
October 26-30, 1962 161 8-10 1000
May 28- 29, 1963 203 14-17 11,520
May 11, 1965 162 12-24 19,279
December 15, 1965 217 8-11 873
October 01, 1966 139 19-22 850
November 12, 1970 224 19-32 500,000
(120,0000 Unofficial)
November 28-30, 1971 97-113 3 -
December 09, 1973 122 5-15 183
November 28, 1974 162 7-16 50
May 9-12, 1975 112 - -
May, 1977 112 - -
October 14-15, 1983 122 - 193
November 5-9, 1983 136 5 300
May 24 -25, 1985 154 10-15 11,069
November 8-9, 1986 110 - 14
November 29, 1988 162 5-10 2,000
April 29 -30, 1991 225 20-25 138,882
May 02, 1994 210 - 400
November 21-25, 1995 210 - 650
May 19, 1997 232 10-15 155
September 25-27, 1997 150 10 70
May 16-20, 1998 150 8 -
November 15, 2007 (SIDR) 180-250 10-15 3363
(5000 Unofficial)
Source: MoFDM, 2007; Bangladesh Meteorological Department, 2007; EU, 1998
Super Cyclone Sidr 2007: A Result of Global Climate Change
Sidr - a very soft word, but millions of Bangladesh people know the colossal strength it contains. The name Sidr was
derived from the Sinhalese Language where ‘Sidr’ means ‘hole’ or ‘eye’. On November 09, 2007 an area of disturbed
weather developed southeast of the Andaman Islands, with a weak low-level circulation near the Nicobar Islands.
Initially moderate upper-level wind shear inhibited organization, while strong diffluence aloft aided in developing
convection. Vertical shear decreased greatly as the circulation became better defined, and a Tropical Cyclone Formation
Alert was issued on November 11, 2007 while located a short distance south of the Andaman Islands. Then early on
November 12 identified cyclonic storm Sidr that began to intensify quickly as it moved slowly northwestward, and the India
Meteorological Department (IMD) upgraded it to a severe cyclonic storm later that day and a very severe cyclonic storm
early the next day. On the morning of November 15, the cyclone intensified to reach peak winds of 215 km/hr according to
the IMD, and a peak of 250 km/hr according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Sidr officially made landfall around
1700 UTC later that day, with sustained winds of 215 km/hr. It weakened quickly after landfall on late night of November
16, 2007.
Devastation by SIDR
Huge loss of life and damages to house-livestock-crop-institution-road-embankment were reported by Sidr (Table 3-4).
Loss of Life and Livestock
Over 2744081 people in some 780 unions were living in inhuman conditions as the Sidr rendered most of them homeless
(Demolished 564967 houses completely and 957110 partially). So far, 3,363 deaths were conformed by the storm, with
that number expected to rise. According to the Disaster Management Control Room (DMCR), 1180 people were missing,
and roughly 7000 persons were injured. Save the Children estimated the number of deaths to be between 5,000 and
10,000, while the Red Crescent Society reported on November 18 that the number of deaths could be up to 10,000. Under
the huge damage list in different sector the loss of livestock was really neglected there was no national figure available.
About 1778507 number of livestock deaths were reported. After putting the snapped picture received from upazila
Livestock offices, loss of Cows reached 0.2 million, loss of goats 0.5 million, loss of ram/ sheep 0.1 million, loss of buffalos
10-12 thousands, loss of poultry-wild birds-animals was innumerous.
Damage of House
Huge numbers of houses were fully damaged and washed away; those which were not blown away became completely
unusable. More than 150000 houses were either fully or partially damaged (UNDP Response & Action Plan Report, 2008).
According to government estimate 564967 households were fully damaged and 957110 were partially damaged in 30
affected districts. The four districts (Bagerhat, Barguna, Pirojpur, Patuakhali) mostly affected account for 331498 (58.68%)
fully damaged households and 439604 (45.93) partially damaged households (Table 3).
Estimated Crop Loss
According to the primary assessment of Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), around 10 lac tones of Aman rice production might
be lost in Sidr along with other standing crops of 1512878 hectares of land causing a loss of 1295000 metric tons crops
(UNDP Response & Action Plan Report, 2008). Sidr partially or totally damaged standing crops on around five lac
hectares of land in the south and south-western districts, causing a loss of around six lac tones of food-crops, particularly
the Aman paddy, which makes up 41% of the total rice production of the country.
Estimated loss in Shrimp Industry
Sidr also washed away the key production areas of the country’s second largest export industry. Only in Morelgonj and
Sharonkhola upazilas of Bagerhat, more than 90% shrimp-farms of around 5000 shrimp cultivators were demolished by
the tidal surge. According to Bangladesh Frozen Food Exporters’ Association, the country’s shrimp or frozen food industry
fears an estimated loss of Tk 250 crore. Shrimp farms in the three southern districts Bagerhat, Satkhira and Khulna that
were severely ravaged by Sidr, are likely to suffer 70 percent or Tk 175 crore of the estimated loss. The rest of the loss, 30
percent or Tk 75 crore, is likely to be incurred by shrimp farms located in Barguna, Patuakhali, Pirojpur, Madaripur and
Gopalganj where fresh water shrimp, locally known as Golda, are cultivated. Apart from losses caused by the hurricane,
shrimp exporters are facing another Tk 150 crore loss due to drastic fall in prices and demands on the international shrimp
markets. The country’s second largest cash cow, shrimp or frozen food industry earned $ 515 million from exports during
the last fiscal year (2006-07). Mentioned that Bagda shrimp is cultivated on 130000 hectares of land in the region while
Golda is cultivated on 40000 hectares of land.
Estimated Damage in Infrastructure
Education ministry officials said that academic activities of around 10000 institutions in 30 districts were seriously
disrupted by Sidr hit. It badly damaged primary schools (4489), high schools, colleges & madrashas (3750) and education
materials in those areas. Around 4231 educational institutes in 30 districts, especially Bagerhat, Barguna, Patuakhali,
Pirojpur, Bhola, Jhalakathi & Barisal were completely damaged. Only a few brick-built institutions survived while 12723
were damaged partially. About 8075 km road, 687 bridge-culvert, 2290 embankment were partially damaged (UNDP
Response & Action Plan Report, 2008). Damages to the infrastructure were also massive. Rural Electrification Board
could not able to restore electricity supply even in 6 months of Sidr. About 20 thousand km of power supply lines out of 25
thousand km under different Palli Biddut Shamity were damaged.
Impact on Livelihoods
Livelihoods were affected mainly by damage to income generating assets and by loss of employment and income such as
loss of fishing boats and gear, industrial equipment, the tools of self employed workers, damage to fish ponds, loss of
livestock, destruction of common assets, destruction of cowsheds and other farm infrastructure, loss of shop inventories,
destruction of shop or business premises, and the loss of income-earning human capital in many of the households
through disaster related death. A total of 567000 persons were affected in their employment by SIDR, among them
160000 persons temporarily or permanently lose their source of income in non agricultural establishments, along with
another 134000 self-employed workers. This overall corresponds to approximately 436000 households affected (nearly
14% of all households in the twelve districts), with an average 1.3 persons per households in the labour force. In the four
most affected districts, there were 325000 workers affected corresponding approximately to 250000 households or 25% of
all households in that area (ILO, 2008).
Estimated Damage in Sundarbans
SIDR hit the eastern parts of the forest, especially Chandpai Range including Kochikhali, Kotka, Hiron Point, Dublarchar,
Sharonkhola, Bogi, Terabeka and Supoti having colossal destruction. Tidal surge rose 15-20 ft in Dubla Islands where
around 25000-30000 fishermen were staying there. Approximately, 5000-6000 temporary shelters of the fishermen were
damaged and washed away together with the huge amount of dry fish, fishing equipments and personal belongings. It was
declared that 201 persons died in Dubla Islands ; 150-155 dead bodies were found in chars. Government source argued
that trees on forty thousand hectare areas of Sundarbans are completely damaged by SIDR. According to Forest
Department, trees of six lakh hectares, one forth of the forests, were completely damaged. Bagerhat, Pirojpur & Barguna
of Eastern Sundarbans were worst affected. 25% of eastern Sundarbans completely damaged. They also estimated that
8-10% of the Sundarbans were worst affected whereas 15% damaged partially. According to official records, nine tigers
and several hundred deer perished when a six feet high tidal surge accompanied by 280 km/hr wind hit in the Sundarbans.
Forest Department claimed damage of infrastructure in the forest worth 18 to 20 crore. (Daily Janakhontho, 22 November
07; Daily Prothom Alo 21 November 07). About 31% (1900 km) area of Sundarban either fully or partially damaged and
estimated loss by Forest department was 44.24 million taka (UNDP Response & Action Plan Report, 2008).

Conclusion
It is clear that Bangladesh has to face the crucial effects (cyclones, tidal surges, sea level rise etc.) of current trends of
climate change. But Bangladesh or even any country in the world cannot overcome this problem overnight. So, global
communities are paying their attention to minimize the impacts of climate change and one of its ultimate results, cyclone &
tidal surge. The output to minimize the impacts is either mitigation or adaptation. In that context, Bangladesh needs to
consider both mitigation and adaptation options, even though the country has very limited scope for mitigation. This is
because mitigation involves global efforts to execute and adaptation is more local. So, effective adaptation policies and
mitigation measures should be developed and implemented to minimize climate change impacts on Bangladesh. If
Bangladesh fails to implement the adaptation measures carefully, the people in coastal areas will loss their means of
subsistence within a short period of 100 years and thus will keep their future generations in danger. Therefore,
Bangladesh government needs to pay keen attention to the issue and should develop strategy to minimize the impacts of
climate change through developing adaptive mechanisms and thus safe its citizen.

References
Ali, A. (2000) “Vulnerability of Bangladesh Coastal Region to Climate Change with Adaptation Options”, Space Research and Remote Sensing
Organization, Ministry of Defense, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh.
Ali, A. (1996 “Vulnerability of Bangladesh to Climate Change and Sea Level Rise through Tropical Cyclones and Storm Surges”, Water, Air and Soil
Pollution, Vol. 94d, pp.171-179.
BBS (2002) “Statistical Yearbook 2002”, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Planning, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh.
EU (1998) “Draft Final Report on Cyclone Shelter Preparatory Study (CPSP) Stage I: Feasibility Study”, Vol. 3, European commission.
Emanuel, K.A. (1987) “The Dependence of Hurricane Intensity”, Nature, Vol. 329, pp. 483-485.
ILO (2008) “Preliminary Assessment of the Impact of Cyclone SIDR on Decent Employment and Proposed Recovery Strategy” International Labour
Office in Bangladesh, pp.61.
Islam, R. (2005) “Where Land Meets the Sea”, University Press Limited, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Khan, N.A. and Sen, S. (2000) “Of Popular Wisdom: Indigenous Knowledge and Practices in Bangladesh. BARCIK, pp. 147-149.
MoFDM (2007) “ Draft National Plan for Disaster Management 2007-2015”, Ministry of Food and Disaster Management, Government of the People’s
Republic of Bangladesh. pp. 108.
UNDP (2008) “Response & Action Plan Report of Cyclone SIDR 2007” United Nations Development Programme, Bangladesh.
Case Study

Abu Taher
of Southkhali, Sharonkhola in Bagerhat

lost his
brother, sister, mother &
grand mother
by the Sidr 2007

Abu Taher of 5 years, was running together with his parents and other members of the
family towards the nearest cyclone shelter after hearing the warning earlier at noon. But
they saw the shelter was locked and there was no man belonging the key to open the
shelter. So they had to back to their home.

Realizing the severity of the storm, at 7.30 pm they tried second time to enter in to the
cyclone shelter but due to strong wind they were unable to move. In the mean time, the
devastation of cyclone started; trees, houses were breaking down with strong wind. “At
9.30 pm tidal flash was approaching in to our village. Around 10-12 people including all
of my 7 family members climbed on bamboo made Matcha of my house. Within an hour
my house was washed away by the tidal surge which separated my family members from
each other” - Alamgir Hossain, the father of Abu Taher explained his horrible
experience of the SIDR night.

Alamgir Hossain was of 42 years age, by profession he was a fisherman. He was the
resident of Dashkin Southkhali, ward no 10 of Sharonkhola, Bagerhat. He could save
himself by catching a branch of a tree. “My little child Abu Taher was frightened and
puzzled with the situation. I discovered him on the plinth of the broken house next
morning. The little Taher was alive but did not explain what happened to him”. By the
SIDR, Taher lost his elder brother, elder sister, mother and grand mother. Alamgir
Hossain could rescue one of his daughters after seven days; she was alive. All the dead
bodies were buried in the plinth of his own house. His house was completely washed
away by the SIDR. By the US Army he got a temporary house (tent) where he was living
with his son and daughter. The tent was just at the side of the graveyard.
 Table 3. Official Damage Report by Cyclone Sidr 2007

S/n Name of No. of Affected Damaged Nos of Nos of Damaged

District Upazila Union Family People Education Institutes Crops (Acre) Households Death Injured Missing Livestock Road Bridge/ Embank- Trees
person People People Death (km) Culvert ment (km)
Full Partial Full Partial Full Partial Full Partial
1 Barisal 10 91 230085 846076 - 4434 45275 223563 41470 92242 97 - - 962 - - - - 300000
2 Jhalokathhi 4 34 149202 763211 345 1239 117308 67908 69685 76108 47 16206 91329 495 1313 20 62 320000
3 Pirojpur 7 51 192831 1011359 2061 710 72963 81909 63896 80315 400 1161 511 735411 383 1259 33 739 750000
4 Borguna 5 42 217279 843669 413 649 227403 83202 95412 96245 1292 16310 26 593571 614 1294 1634 679 1000000
5 Bhola 7 67 28771 147718 665 325 22350 148862 15389 20300 42 61 14 7658 25 87 - - 150000
6 Patuakhali 7 72 252300 611125 351 1022 60440 254835 53291 132369 457 8500 221 17184 - 838 - - 175000
7 Khulna 9 68 112476 525616 35 462 12464 78292 17323 67011 18 173 - 13652 11 67 - 43 45170
8 Satkhira 7 78 42862 212133 - 149 2858 45460 5293 12245 20 4 1 162 50 25 - 19 35400
9 Bagerhat 9 78 283482 1221788 211 1859 58215 237483 118899 130675 810 11428 - 207085 60 1174 - 259 20000
10 Gopalgang 5 72 55494 257354 33 555 8958 34248 24133 85000 35 20 - 94492 46 - - - 17000
11 Madaripur 4 61 92300 595000 37 91 3330 9460 4991 7509 41 119 - 30 - - - - 30444
12 Shariatpur 6 70 95562 423023 31 480 20536 43235 27993 54325 17 1232 - 159 - - - - 776429
13 Faridpur 8 83 38635 154540 - 34 23200 75542 1000 37635 16 - 3 52 - - - - 153300
14 Rajbari 4 42 755 3775 - - 3200 9359 3789 755 1 - - - - - - - 2000
15 Dhaka 5 49 3036 15180 - 2 450 9114 15 3036 6 2 - - - - - - 9000
16 Narayanganj 4 44 14164 57998 - 35 6889 1297 476 5156 12 - 153 - - - - 2000
17 Munshiganj 6 67 21590 102322 - 43 3080 6553 2804 5548 8 18 - - - 23 - - 8000
18 Narsingdi 6 70 60558 306538 - 48 2350 34301 24 5280 3 5 - 10802 - - - - 160000
19 Chittagong 5 37 3759 15295 - 9 1976 4989 603 5181 21 - 92 4654 30 70 - 34 1200
20 Cox's Bazar 8 43 2004 8555 - 9 245 1276 40 1499 7 - - 3 - 21 - 30 1500
21 Noakhali 5 88 33740 217300 - - 3125 19625 980 2200 1 35 - 250 - 150 - 8 700
22 Feni 6 23 35 156 - - 87 263 45 300 - - - - - - - - 450
23 Laxmipur 5 54 9988 55695 - 133 18500 127483 1479 6652 2 1 1 2 - - - - 700
24 Chandpur 8 123 38133 175579 47 286 6550 19301 10342 15443 5 - - 70 - 40 - 2 81673
25 Comilla 16 162 14119 70527 - 98 2500 30104 806 3412 - - - - - - - - 1400
26 Jessore 8 94 55902 223608 - - 103 2008 295 405 2 7 2 - - - - - 350
27 Narail 3 41 8592 35024 - 48 7615 21656 3629 6177 1 - - - - - - - 750
28 Moulvibazar 3 8 149 755 - - 45 280 60 89 2 - - 56 - - - - 850
29 Kishorganj 13 73 5473 18140 2 3 4500 16087 55 2628 - - - 765 - - - - 12000
30 Manikganj 7 65 750 4200 - - 6807 42622 750 1370 - - - 5 - - - - 10000
Total 200 1950 2064026 8923259 4231 12723 743322 1730317 564967 957110 3363 55282 871 1778507 1714 6361 1687 1875 4065316

Source: Ministry of Food and Disaster Management (MoFDM) Relief Control Cell (RCC); Date: December 31, 2007