The Future Web: Are You Prepared?

Gartner Symposium/ITxpo 2011 November 7-10, 2011 Centre Convencions Internacional Barcelona Barcelona, Spain

Gene Phifer

Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view. These materials can be reproduced only with written approval from Gartner. Such approvals must be requested via e-mail: vendor.relations@gartner.com. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. Gartner Inc affiliates This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. 2011 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

The Future Web: Are You Prepared?

This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. 2011 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

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The Future Web: Are You Prepared?

It is hard to find an enterprise today that doesn t have some kind of Web strategy. Even the smallest businesses doesn't strategy usually have some kind of website. Despite the pervasiveness of the Web, enterprise strategies regarding the Web vary significantly. Advanced enterprises aggressively leverage the Web for internally and externally facing channels of interaction. They leverage the Web as the central strategy for dealing with customers. They also leverage advanced Web tools and principles: D Dynamic l i languages: M Many enterprises leverage dynamic languages and dynamic Java languages as AD i l d i l dd i J l tools. While these won't replace all languages, they provide rapid development of robust, Web-centric applications. WOA: Web-oriented architectures, or approaches that use RESTful Web interoperability, are being used to build a new generation of mashup-style composite applications. A2A integration: The Web is not just a front-end tool that provides application-to-application integration capabilities.

This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. 2011 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

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The Future Web: Are You Prepared?

Key Issue: How has the Web evolved thus far? Web 1.0 is a term applied to the original Web of the 1990-to-2000 era. Web 2.0 refers to the period roughly from 2004 through 2010 Gartner identifies three anchor points around Web 2.0: Technology and architecture Web-oriented architecture (WOA) and Web platforms Community Th dynamics of social networks and other personal content public/shared models, wikis C it The d i f i l t k d th l t t bli / h d d l iki and other collaborative content models Business model Web-service-enabled business models and mashup/remix applications

The most powerful application of Web 2.0 can be achieved by exploiting new business models that leverage the technology and community aspects of Web 2.0, but this isn't the only way to drive value. Each anchor point can be examined individually, and in combinations, to drive value. For example, Web community models can be exploited for internal collaboration without changing the organization's basic business model. Web technologies can be applied to develop a flexible SOA without changing the business model or exploiting Web communities.
This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. 2011 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

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The Future Web: Are You Prepared?

Key Issue: How has the Web evolved thus far? The Internet is a societal, epochal technology that does not progress uniformly, but in a sequence of dependent waves. The capabilities of earlier waves create new information and knowledge tools that permit the creation of the next wave. The 1980s' Internet-enabled computer and information scientists to exchange ideas and experiment with models, which gave rise to the World Wide Web. This, in turn, enabled global technological, business and social interaction, which gave rise to Web 2.0. As Web 2.0 progresses, the tools it provides will enable at least one more major evolutionary stage to occur, and this will coincide with important hardware price/performance tipping points. The Web will continue to evolve. Some pundits are already defining "Web 3.0."Rather than get caught up in silly numbering schemes, Gartner prefers to think of the future as "just the Web." There will surely be new, breakthrough technologies, methodologies, approaches and models. Like Web 2.0, these will fall into technology/architecture, community/social and business/process aspects. The future Web will become pervasive. Not only available via Web browsers, the future Web will be accessible by a broad spectrum of devices, including automobiles, consumer electronics and more and more mobile devices. Consumerization will become an even greater influencer in the future, as the worlds of personal technology and content and enterprise technology and content blend even further, to the point where the boundaries will disappear in many cases.
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This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. 2011 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

The Future Web: Are You Prepared?

Key Issue: What will the future of the Web look like? Enterprises can leverage context-aware computing to better target and deliver on the promise of increased customer intimacy for millions of consumers. Consider: By 2012, there will be two global context providers with more than 100 million subscribers each (if each subscriber's context information is monetized at a rate of $5/month, this translates into a market opportunity of $12 billion/year just in this one segment). By 2015, the average Global 2000 enterprise will manage between two and 10 business relationships with 2015 context providers (this will be driven by the fact that no single context provider will have the span to allow enterprises to reach all the end users they wish this includes B2E, B2B and B2C opportunities). By 2015, 90% of enterprises delivering consumer-facing applications will use context-enriched services. Action Items: Enterprises must consider how they will publish and subscribe to federated information models. Enterprises will need to more closely consider the information elements present in past consumer interactions and in interactions in the moment of choice, and they will need to have blueprints for future interactions. choice interactions

This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. 2011 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

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The Future Web: Are You Prepared? Strategic Planning Assumption: By 2013, mobile phones will overtake PCs as the most common Web access device worldwide.

Key Issue: What will the future of the Web look like? We expect three major eras of mobility. The device era was characterized by iconic devices such as the Motorola RAZR and was dominated by device manufacturers. The application era arrived with the iPhone, which popularized application and media stores. Although stores had existed in the previous era, they had never been an integral part of an end-to-end experience of the type created by Apple. This era is characterized by stand-alone applications and media. The service and social era will build on the application era, but will be y g pp , p characterized by cloud services and streaming media. Applications will survive, but often as a component of a more complex end-to-end experience involving the cloud. A key factor in this era is the importance of social computing for example, social networks as essential components of the device and cloud experience. The service era is also driven by generational shifts in consumer behavior, such as a reduced need to "own" information and an increasing willingness to use consumer services from the cloud. By 2014, we expect mobile voice and data revenue to exceed $1 trillion a year. In addition, mobile will generate revenue from a wide range of additional services, such as context, advertising, application and service sales. Each of these will be a significant business worth several tens of billions of dollars per year. year

This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. 2011 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

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The Future Web: Are You Prepared?

Key Issue: What will the future of the Web look like? Mobile devices permit certain kinds of native applications, but developers who want to reach many mobile audiences while leveraging the unique features that make the mobile medium such a compelling environment for applications must seek a cross-platform solution. This will open the door for future innovation from leading RIA technology companies. In addition, escalating consumer preferences (as they are exposed to innovative and exciting new user experiences), rather than standards bodies, will drive the pace of innovation on the Internet. There will be p ) p important discoveries and developments from proprietary vendors with the financial incentives to provide innovative products that "raise the bar" beyond the capabilities of HTML5. These opportunities remain open to focused competitors. In the end, we will get what we have come to expect the Web will become a better experience in the browser, but the best, most-singular experiences will only be possible using more-advanced technology that targets specific platforms. As has always been true, most enterprise applications do not require "the very best" experiences, experiences and HTML5 will serve those applications well However, the death of Silverlight, Flash and other well. However Silverlight proprietary RIA technologies has been wildly overstated, and they will continue to fill niche roles.
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This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. 2011 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

The Future Web: Are You Prepared? Strategic Planning Assumption: By 2015, mobile Web technologies will have advanced sufficiently such that half of the applications that today would be written as native apps will instead be delivered as Web apps.

Key Issue: What will the future of the Web look like? While there will still be app stores by 2015, over 50% of the apps sold and/or pointed to (rather than installed) will be Web apps, not platform-specific native apps. There will still be paid apps, but more will be Web apps for which users pay. Native apps are important today on mobile devices, but not nearly as important on the desktop. Native apps will be less significant in 2015. This has led to Google's two Linux (OS) strategies: Android, a native platform primarily for mobile, , (not p platform) p ) primarily for Web apps. y pp and ChromeOS, an OS ( The mobile Web experience, as delivered first by the iPhone, points the way to a new generation of user interfaces and services on mobile clients. A new level of expectations has been set among consumers. Online strategies must increasingly take into account not just a mobile Web experience, but also a mobile app experience, as more applications are offered via Apple's App Store and other distribution mechanisms. The major reason to go with mobile Web apps is to hedge bets regarding platforms. Another consideration is security, because direct access to device software introduces additional security concerns. Flash and Silverlight are choices only for a subset of devices (i.e., not the iPhone). Mobile Web apps can in certain scenarios and with careful attention to application programming interfaces and extensions, can, extensions provide a rich user experience that does not equal native apps, but approximates them at a fraction of the development effort and with greater portability and flexibility.
This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. 2011 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

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The Future Web: Are You Prepared?

HKey Issue: What will the future of the Web look like? TML5 is a draft specification for browser behaviors and capabilities that likely won't be final until mid-2013. A de facto standard set of features has already appeared in a range of popular browsers, including from Google and Apple. Microsoft is behind the curve in HTML5 support, but promises full support in Internet Explorer 9. HTML5 makes the browser much more powerful. Included are new markup tags that make it easier for programmers to design for search engine optimization, support for local storage, rich media types such as video, audio, scalable vector graphics and a low-level "canvas" reminiscent of early software-based graphics renderers. HTML5 makes it possible for the browser to become a full-fledged application container even when disconnected from the Internet. Support for location-based services enables the browser to become an interesting platform for mobile applications, and features like background threads (via Web Workers) and lower-level networking support (via Web Sockets) creates the potential for faster, more-responsive Web applications. The implications for developers are clear: the browser becomes more important p , p pp p p p than ever, and proficiency with HTML and JavaScript, the "lingua franca" of the browser, will follow. What of "heavy RIA" technologies like Flash, Silverlight, and JavaFX? Gartner expects these technologies to be under pressure to find new ways to innovate to justify their existence. However, there are imperfections in the HTML5 specification that can be exploited. For example, HTML5 does not support DRM, a key feature for content creators and publishers. HTML5 does not support accelerometers and Web cameras in mobile devices, so applications like Apple's FaceTime can't be delivered in a browser. Gartner expects leading heavy RIA vendors to maintain a pace of innovation that keeps them relevant, but for a gradually shrinking percentage of Web applications. Most enterprises will be satisfied with HTML5 alone. The power of the browser extends to mobile devices as well. Apple, Google and RIM have settled on the WebKit browser engine as the basis for their mobile browser offerings. If these vendors can maintain and grow market share, developers can look forward to less-fragmented support when designing mobile applications. However, threats to this utopia are on the horizon: Microsoft's Windows Phone 7 Series, a Silverlight based device, may provide an incentive for developers to work Microsoft s Series Silverlight-based device outside HTML5 standards, and mobile ecosystem owners like Apple will always have a vested interest in pushing developers to native applications that provide a proprietary user experience.

This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. 2011 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

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The Future Web: Are You Prepared? Definition: A user experience platform is an integrated collection of technologies and methodologies that provides the ability to design and deliver user interface/presentation capabilities for a wide variety of interaction channels.

Key Issue: What will the future of the Web look like? Recent trends in user demand and ISV behavior indicate a shift in the technologies used to deliver the user experience (UX). Users have complained for years about the multitude of technologies and tools they must use to deliver the variety of user experiences necessary. In addition, convergence of several UX-related technologies is definitely visible: content, collaboration, context, portal, mashup, RIA and analytics. A user experience platform (UXP) is an integrated collection of technologies and methodologies that provides the ability to design and deliver user interface/presentation capabilities for a wide variety of interaction h bili d i d d li i f / i bili i f id i fi i channels. The UXP will subsume traditional portal and mashup technologies, and will overlap significantly with others. Vendors are delivering integrated sets of these technologies, some as a suite and, in one case (Microsoft SharePoint), a single product. Action Item: Prepare for portal product and mashup toolkit markets to morph into the UXP market in the next few years.

This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. 2011 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

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The Future Web: Are You Prepared? Tactical Guideline: If you are a consumer-centric enterprise, then get a social media strategy today.

Key Issue: What will the future of the Web look like? Social media includes many forms of content, all of which are authored by "the masses." Whether updating blogs on Blogger, entries in Wikipedia, photos in Flickr, videos in YouTube or "tweets" in Twitter, digital natives and naturalized digital citizens are using social media on an almost daily basis. How should enterprises leverage social media? Monitor the blogosphere, microblogging sites like Twitter, social network sites like Facebook, and masspublishing sites like YouTube Mine these sites for references to your products or company Significant YouTube. company. intelligence can be gathered there. Reputation management is key, but be careful not to overreact to "negative press." Contribute content to those sites. Consider creating a Facebook application and having some of your people tweet regularly. Put how-to videos for your products on YouTube. Use select social media technologies internally. They can facilitate highly productive collaboration and innovation. innovation Recognize the power of social media in major events worldwide, and harness that power for your enterprise.
This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. 2011 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

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The Future Web: Are You Prepared? Strategic Planning Assumption: By 2012, 80% of Fortune 1000 enterprises will be using some level of cloud-computing services, and 30% will use cloud-computing system and/or application infrastructure services.

Key Issue: What will the future of the Web look like? The hype around cloud computing continues to grow. Vendors are increasingly using cloud computing as a marketing label for old technologies and offerings, devaluing the term and trend. This is understandable, because cloud computing is a natural evolution of enterprise and Web-based technologies and trends. However, it is a mistake to relabel these older technologies as "cloud computing." Cloud computing emerges from the synergistic intersection of elements of these trends and technologies. This new computing model drives revolutionary changes in how solutions are designed, built, delivered, sourced and managed. Cloud computing designed built delivered managed is not defined by one product or technology. It is a style of computing that characterizes a model in which providers deliver IT-enabled capabilities to consumers.

This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. 2011 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

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The Future Web: Are You Prepared?

Key Issue: What will the future of the Web look like? Microblogging is largely equated with the consumer site Twitter. Twitter is the most widely known microblogging site in the consumer market. Use of Twitter is often considered a derivative form of blogging. Information shared by members is broadcast in short message fragments (140 characters) called "tweets" (sometimes referred to as a "post"). Tweets are displayed in reverse chronological order and are public by default. The resulting stream of tweets creates a real-time collective user experience. This real-time behavior can cause some people to consider Twitter a social messaging platform that is more similar to IM than to blogging. The concept of the real-time Web refers to the fact that information is made available much more quickly, and that the results of searches and other activities are much more up to date.

This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. 2011 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

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The Future Web: Are You Prepared? Strategic Planning Assumption: By 2010, WOA will account for 60% of SOA development in the enterprise.

Key Issue: What will the future of the Web look like? The narrow waist of the hourglass constitutes a spanning layer, a set of standards forming an abstraction layer designed to provide interoperability across different enabling technologies (below) for use by different types of applications (above). Although the architectural principle of using an abstraction layer to reduce NxM to N+M is so old that the origin of the phrase has vanished, the term "spanning layer" was coined by David Clark, former chairman of the Internet Architecture Board, to refer to a set of standards forming an abstraction layer designed to provide interoperability across different enabling technologies (below the layer) for use by different types of applications (above the layer). A good spanning layer has h h h the shape of an h f hourglass. Clark's paradigm, of course, was the Internet (see "Interoperation, Open I l Cl k' di f h I ( "I i O Interfaces, and f d Protocol Architecture" at www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=3180949). According to Clark, a spanning layer is characterized by three key attributes that define the degree of interoperation it supports. First is the span of infrastructure options over which the interoperation occurs (the width of the bottom of the hourglass). Next is the range of higher-level applications the spanning layer supports (the width of the top of the hourglass). Finally is the degree of symmetry in the services of the spanning layer and its interfaces (the network effect of adding a peer-to-peer application vs. a client/server application). To this list, two more attributes should be added: The abstraction distance from infrastructure options to spanning layer (the height of the bottom of the hourglass) and abstraction distance from higher-level applications to spanning layer (the hourglass), higher level height of the top of the hourglass). The usefulness of this model of standards is that it enables intuitive comparison of key issues, such as the number of uses (and, therefore, users) of a spanning layer and the number of technologies (and, therefore, vendors) supporting a spanning layer. This is essential for assessing the value of a spanning layer.
This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. 2011 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

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The Future Web: Are You Prepared?

Key Issue: What will the future of the Web look like? The majority of applications in organizations today continue to require Windows. While OS-neutral applications continue to grow, and OS-neutral applications will typically comprise the majority for many organizations in 2012, most organizations will need Windows for many of their applications well into the decade. Many people are under the impression that most applications are browser-based or are written on some other technology that does not require Windows for the application to run. While this is true for most new run applications being developed (both internally by organizations' developers and many ISVs), it is not true when the entire installed base of applications is considered. The majority of applications in the typical organization require Windows today (see Figures 1 and 2); although we expect OS-neutral applications to comprise the majority by YE12, the client OS, namely Windows, will continue to be essential as long as a sizable number of critical applications require it. Many organizations have a significant number of applications that are critical to running their businesses, many of which were built internally, that require Windows. Even as late as 2020, we expect nearly one-quarter of applications in the installed base to be client OS- or b l f li i i h i ll d b b li OS browser-specific. If many of ifi f f these applications are business critical or are used by a wide swath of users, Windows will still be a critical technology and decision point.
This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. 2011 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

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The Future Web: Are You Prepared?

Key Issue: What will the future of the Web look like? Gartner does not collect statistics on browsers, as there are many sources. Shown here is recent data from netmarketshare.com. The key to using this data is looking at it in conjunction with what you know about your users. Particularly regarding IE6, almost all IE6 usage is by large enterprises, so if yours is one of these, or if you are looking at B2B use where many of the other companies are large enterprises, then you need to factor this in. In the broader consumer usage scenario, IE6 use is disappearing quickly. As for future browser share, our feeling is that Firefox has likely peaked. IE will maintain majority share, and g yp j y the "one to watch" is Chrome. Chrome has been getting "anti-IE" users at the expense of Firefox, and we see this trend continuing. For much of the past 10 years, the Microsoft browser has been lagging far behind competitors. However, Microsoft IE9 is now a first-class browser. comparable to Google Chrome, Apple Safari, Mozilla Firefox and Opera. Any organization that has been thinking about switching from Microsoft to another browser no longer needs to apologize for staying with IE. With IE9 Microsoft shows that it is serious about winning (or at least, not losing) the browser competition. In IE9, Mi ft h th t i i b t i i ( tl t t l i ) th b titi I that sense, "browser wars" have returned.
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This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. 2011 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

The Future Web: Are You Prepared? Strategic Planning Assumptions: Through 2007, Microsoft will continue to invest in and increase its enterprise capabilities. Through 2006, Microsoft will fail to convince more than 50% of IT organizations that it is an enterprise vendor on a par with IBM.

Key Issue: What will the future of the Web look like? The concept of a WebOS has been around since the early days of network computing, specifically, the network computer, roughly the mid-1990s. Even with all the promises of the WebOS, and early attempts at delivering it, the traditional OS dominates desktop computing. Google is the latest in this game, with Chrome OS. Running on top of Linux, Chrome OS attempts to provide the OS to provide access to the Web and cloud-computing resources. Essentially, Google is attempting a transition from the browser as an appendage to the OS, to the OS as an appendage to the browser. Will the WebOS kill off Windows? Not likely. The dominance of Windows and its ability to deliver offline capabilities will ensure Windows dominance for years to come. However, new classes of client devices, namely netbooks, may benefit from the WebOS. Netbooks are designed to be always connected, and the limitations of the WebOS will not impact the workloads running on a netbook the way they do a regular PC. Emerging markets that do not have significant presence of traditional desktop OSs may also be impacted by the WebOS. For example, China is a prime market for netbooks running a WebOS. Expect the W bOS to evolve. With the growth of cloud computing, the WebOS will actually become reality. E t th WebOS t l th th f l d ti th W bOS ill t ll b lit

This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. 2011 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

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The Future Web: Are You Prepared? Strategic Imperative: Trust is essential to effective communication and cooperation.

Key Issue: What will the future of the Web look like? The data on this chart is from two different surveys. One, conducted in March 2008, collected data from IT professionals responsible for collaborative and social applications; the other, conducted in June, collected data from "end users," people outside the IT organization with non-IT jobs. Here are four key observations: q pp There is quite a bit of use of external Web 2.0 applications. What users say they are doing is quite similar to what IT professionals say they are doing. IT professionals are significantly underestimating what users are doing. (Not shown on this chart) End users, when asked to describe the behavior of their peers, also significantly underestimate what other end users are doing. Action Item: Evaluate whether your users trust you enough to divulge what they are doing, and determine what it will take to get to the right level of trust in the organization.

This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. 2011 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

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The Future Web: Are You Prepared?

Key Issue: What will the future of the Web look like? Emerging economies will see rapidly rising mobile and Internet adoption through 2014. At the same time, advances in mobile payment, commerce and banking are making it easier to electronically transact via mobile or PC Internet. Combining these two trends creates a situation in which a significant majority of the world's adult population will be able to electronically transact by 2014. Electronic transactions can include transferring funds using mobile remittance schemes, paying for public transportation or groceries using a mobile phone and buying items via PC Internet or mobile commerce sites. Technologies can vary (e.g., NFC or over the air). The scope of this prediction is B2C and peer-to-peer (P2P) electronic transactions. Gartner research predicts that, by 2014, there will be a 90% mobile penetration rate and 6.5 billion mobile connections. Penetration will not be uniform, as continents like Asia (excluding Japan) will see a 68% penetration, and Africa will see a 56% mobile penetration. The UN Population Division estimates the world population will be more than 7 billion by 2014 (with approximately 5.5 billion over 18 years old). p p p y ( pp y y ) Multiplying populations of continents with penetration rates by continent results in an estimate that more than 3 billion adults will have a mobile phone by 2014. Although not every individual with a mobile phone or Internet access will transact electronically, each will have the ability to do so. Cash transactions will remain dominant in emerging markets by 2014, but the foundation for electronic transactions will be well under way for much of the adult world (think of the Internet before e-commerce). See: "Gartner's Top Predictions for IT Organizations and Users, 2010 and Beyond: A New Balance" (G00173482) "Rethinking Commerce in Emerging Economies" (G00163815) "Growing Sales and Expanding Your Brand Through Global E-Commerce, Part 2: The Engaged Approach of Localization" (G00180767) "E-Commerce Websites: Features That Make Consumers Buy" (G00174848)
This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. 2011 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

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The Future Web: Are You Prepared?

Key Issue: What will the future of the Web look like? The debate about "net neutrality" has been subverted by a much deeper issue about the control of information, whether for commercial reasons (as in the case of media companies in the U.S. and elsewhere) or political reasons (as in the case of the Chinese government). The Internet has, so far, benefited from an ecosystem where no entity or group of entities holds excessive power in the marketplace. The fiercely competitive marketplace for bandwidth, particularly in carrier-neutral data centers, has led to a dramatic decrease in bandwidth prices, which have made applications like streaming media and online gaming practical and affordable. Online censorship techniques have an unfortunate technological alignment with some of the Internet aspirations of the media industry specifically, its desire to implement traffic monitoring at the ISP level, as suggested, for example, in a recent brief submitted by the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA), which calls on the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to endorse ISP adoption of "network management p ( ) p g policies" a euphemism for monitoring traffic for copyright violations. p g py g While the techniques suggested by U.S. media associations are not identical to those employed by China for the purposes of censorship and identification of dissidents, they're likely to have the common effect of bolstering the development, adoption and defense of so-called "darknet" countermeasures that are designed to shield users from either objective. Net neutrality is a key issue. There is concern that service providers that provide both Internet services and their own video content will be tempted to throttle third-party content on their networks, degrading the quality and causing consumer frustration. Legislation is being developed by some countries to prevent this under anti-competitive laws, but ultimately governments expect market forces will prevail and alternative models are being explored to balance the needs of consumers, content providers and ISPs, such that It is possible that, by 2013, net neutrality issues will have generally disappeared. See: "Dataquest Insight: There's No Free Lunch on the Internet" (G00149809) "Google vs. China: Conflict Underscores Challenges Facing Content Companies" (G00174052)
This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. 2011 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

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The Future Web: Are You Prepared?

Key Issue: What will the future of the Web look like? The Web began in universities and science. Tim Berners-Lee was a physicist who needed a tool that facilitated distributed, collaborative sharing of richly formatted information with other research physicists worldwide. This phase can be called Web 0.5 and lasted from the early 1990s to the mid-1990s. If one can apply Web 1.0 to the mainstream Web, this major point release came to fruition in the late 1990s. The watershed event marking the start of Web 1.0 was the IPO for Netscape, which occurred in 1995. With Web 2.0, the cycle went around. around Dissatisfaction with complex, monolithic technology stacks from large platform vendors (Java/J2EE complex and .NET) has fueled interest in lightweight, dynamic languages (PHP and Ruby), open-source technologies (Apache, Linux and MySQL), loosely coupled architectures (REST) and lightweight protocols (microformats). Much of this is a return to roots, but some is new. Some differences in degree have resulted in differences in kind, regarding always-on broadband connectivity, global Web content distribution and mobile devices. We are now seeing cycles continue, with renewed interest in monetizing what had been a labor of love with hazy business plans. The claims of the Web being dead reflect this turning point.

This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. 2011 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

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The Future Web: Are You Prepared?

This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. 2011 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

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The Future Web: Are You Prepared?

This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. 2011 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

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