Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
February 8, 2012
ONGC
ACCUMULATE
Performance Highlights
CMP
Target Price
3QFY12
3QFY11
% chg (yoy)
2QFY12
% chg (qoq)
18,124
18,586
(2.5)
22,616
(19.9)
EBITDA
11,051
13,532
(18.3)
14,469
(23.6)
61.0
72.8
(1,183)bp
64.0
(300)bp
3,599
7,083
(49.2)
8,642
(58.4)
`283
`323
Investment Period
12 Months
Stock Info
Oil & Gas
Sector
Market Cap (` cr)
For 3QFY2012, ONGCs EBITDA and adjusted PAT decreased by 18.3% yoy and
49.2% yoy on account of higher subsidy burden. We recommend Accumulate on
the stock.
Net crude oil realization dips by 30.9% yoy: ONGCs top line decreased by 2.5%
yoy to `18,124cr. The companys crude oil net realization declined by 30.9% yoy
to US$44.8/bbl on account of higher subsidy burden. The company shared a
subsidy burden of `12,536cr in 3QFY2012 vs. `4,222cr of subsidy shared in
3QFY2011 and `5,713cr in 2QFY2012.
Higher depreciation further dents the bottom line: During the quarter,
EBITDA margin slipped by 1,183bp yoy to 61.0% and EBITDA decreased by
18.3% yoy to `11,051cr. Depreciation and amortization expenses increased by
24.5% yoy to `4,532cr due to higher dry well write-offs during the quarter.
The company reported one-time gain of `3,142cr related to royalty reimbursed
by Cairn India. Excluding this one-time gain, adjusted net profit decreased by
49.2% yoy to `3,599cr.
Oil and gas production guidance: ONGC aims to increase its oil and gas
production (including JVs) to 28.8mn tonnes (+4.0% yoy) and 27bcm (+7.0%
yoy), respectively, for FY2013.
Outlook and valuation: We expect robust volume growth from ONGC Videsh
(OVL), which aims to increase its production at a CAGR of 12.4% during
FY2011-13. Also, a concrete subsidy-sharing formula by the government could
make ONGCs cash flows more predictable. The stock is currently trading at 9.4x
and 8.5x FY2012E and FY2013E PE, respectively, compared to its five-year
average forward PE of 10.2x. Considering the anticipated growth in volumes from
OVL, we recommend Accumulate on the stock with an SOTP target price of `323.
242,078
Beta
0.7
326/242
362,591
BSE Sensex
17,707
Nifty
5,368
Reuters Code
ONGC.BO
Bloomberg Code
ONGC@IN
74.1
6.8
5.3
13.7
Abs. (%)
3m
1yr
3yr
Sensex
0.8
(0.4)
90.4
ONGC
1.8
0.4
66.2
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012E
FY2013E
101,755
117,611
124,378
138,709
(2.7)
15.6
5.8
11.5
19,404
22,456
25,801
28,393
% chg
(2.0)
15.7
14.9
10.0
OPM (%)
44.2
41.2
43.0
42.0
EPS (`)
22.7
26.2
30.2
33.2
P/E (x)
12.5
10.8
9.4
8.5
2.4
2.1
1.8
1.6
P/BV (x)
RoE (%)
20.0
20.7
20.8
20.0
RoCE (%)
19.9
19.1
19.6
19.2
EV/Sales (x)
2.2
1.8
1.6
1.3
EV/EBITDA (x)
5.0
4.6
4.0
3.5
Bhavesh Chauhan
Tel: 022 - 3935 7800 Ext: 6821
bhaveshu.chauhan@angelbroking.com
18,124
18,586
(2.5)
22,616
(19.9)
7,073
5,055
39.9
8,148
(13.2)
11,051
13,532
(18.3)
14,469
(23.6)
61.0
72.8
64.0
958
664
44.3
1,133
(15.4)
4,532
3,641
24.5
3,337
35.8
(71.5)
(71.5)
3,142
10,617
10,554
58.6
56.8
3,876
3,471
0.6
12,258
11.7
3,616
(13.4)
54.2
7.2
36.5
32.9
PAT
6,741
7,083
(4.8)
8,642
(22.0)
Adj. PAT
3,599
7,083
(49.2)
8,642
(58.4)
19.9
38.1
29.5
38.2
122,330
132,630
(7.8)
172,700
37,960
4,800
34,660
9.5
34,700
9.4
5,990
(19.9)
6,850
(29.9)
18,190
14,110
28.9
17,060
6.6
3,420
2,510
36.3
3,410
0.3
44.8
64.8
(30.9)
83.7
(46.5)
Natural Gas
LPG
Naphtha
C2-C3
(29.2)
Average realization
7,562
6,809
11.0
6,871
10.1
LPG (US$/mt)
351
509
(31.1)
574
(38.9)
Naphtha (US$/mt)
878
786
11.8
939
(6.5)
C2-C3 (US$/mt)
521
532
(2.2)
578
(9.9)
5.60
5.90
(5.1)
5.8
(3.4)
5.00
5.10
(2.0)
5.1
(2.0)
LPG (tmt)
269
262
2.7
261
3.1
Naphtha (tmt)
407
400
1.8
397
2.5
C2-C3 (tmt)
129
105
22.9
129
0.0
Sales volume
February 8, 2012
Actual
Estimates
18,124
17,200
5.4
EBITDA
11,051
8,858
24.8
61.0
51.5
947bp
3,599
4,454
(19.2)
Variation (%)
Net crude oil realization dips by 30.9% yoy: ONGCs top line decreased by 2.5%
yoy at `18,124cr. ONGCs crude oil net realization declined by 30.9% yoy to
US$44.8/bbl on account of higher subsidy burden. The company shared a subsidy
burden of `12,536cr in 3QFY2012 vs. `4,222cr of subsidy shared in 3QFY2011
and `5,713cr in 2QFY2012. Oil sales volumes decreased by 4.0% yoy to 5.6mn
tonnes and gas sales volumes decreased by 1.4% yoy to 5.0bcm during
3QFY2012.
24,000
34.2
21,000
18,000
20.2
(` cr)
15,000
18.5
24.3
12,000
9,000
0.7
6,000
3,000
(2.5)
(8.7)
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
(5.0)
(10.0)
(15.0)
(%)
February 8, 2012
75.0
72.8
14,000
72.0
69.0
12,000
(` cr)
8,000
60.0
62.2
58.5
66.0
61.0
63.0
60.0
(%)
64.0
10,000
57.0
6,000
54.0
4,000
49.5
2,000
-
51.0
48.0
45.0
9,000
8,000
(` cr)
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
-
160.0
140.0
132.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
60.4
40.0
11.8
20.0
5.9
(24.5)
(20.0)
(26.1)
(49.2) (40.0)
(60.0)
1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12
(%)
10,000
Adj. PAT
February 8, 2012
Investment argument
Gas volumes expected to boost valuations: ONGC aims to increase gas
production from North Tapti, B193 and 28 cluster, B22 cluster WO series cluster,
B46 cluster, cluster 7 and B series. The company aims to increase its production to
27bcm in FY2013 from 23bcm in FY2011. As far as oil is concerned, ONGCs
existing oil fields are matured and, thus, production from these fields is declining.
Nevertheless, management expects incremental oil production from marginal
fields (including D1 extension, B193 cluster, B22 clusters, North Tapti, WO series
and B46 cluster), which will help arrest the decline in crude production.
OVLs volume story intact: OVLs production has increased steadily from
8.0mtoe in FY2007 to 9.5mtoe in FY2011. Going forward, we expect OVLs
volumes to grow to 12mtoe by FY2013 with incremental productions from
Myanmar, Sakhalin-1 and Venezuela coming on stream. Moreover, any increase
in crude oil or gas price improves OVLs margins, as it does not share
under-recoveries.
`/share
ONGC Standalone(DCF)
183
64
13
Total EV
260
Net debt
(63)
323
FY2012E
FY2013E
22.8
23.2
55.4
56.7
February 8, 2012
Bloomberg Consensus
Variation (%)
FY2012E
30
31
(4.0)
FY2013E
33
34
(0.9)
CMP
TP
(`)
(`)
Reco.
Mcap
Upside
(` cr)
(%)
FY12E
P/E (x)
FY13E
FY12E
P/BV (x)
FY13E
FY12E
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY13E
RoE (%)
FY12E
RoCE (%)
RIL
858
923
Accum.
280,987
13.4
12.4
1.5
1.3
7.5
7.1
12.9
12.4
9.6
9.8
ONGC
283
323
Accum.
242,078
14
9.4
8.5
1.8
1.6
4.0
3.5
20.8
20.0
19.6
19.2
Cairn India
373
Neutral
70,907
8.5
7.2
1.5
1.2
6.2
4.6
18.8
18.4
18.9
18.7
GAIL
391
440
Accum.
49,579
13
12.6
11.0
2.2
1.9
6.5
5.7
19.0
18.7
23.0
22.9
650
550
450
350
250
150
5x
10x
15x
20x
Jan-12
Jul-11
Oct-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-06
Oct-06
Apr-06
50
25x
(%)
(20)
(30)
(40)
(50)
Prem/Disc to Sensex
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Oct-09
Jul-09
Jan-09
Apr-09
Oct-08
Jul-08
Apr-08
Jan-08
Oct-07
Jul-07
Apr-07
(60)
February 8, 2012
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12E
FY13E
8.1
(2.7)
15.6
5.8
11.5
Total Expenditure
55,527
61,364
56,805
69,174
70,864
80,462
25,070
28,975
25,339
31,251
30,414
34,534
18,419
17,678
16,321
19,685
19,157
21,752
1,328
1,162
1,407
1,716
1,933
2,195
Other
10,710
13,549
13,738
16,523
19,359
21,982
EBITDA
41,255
43,225
44,949
48,436
53,513
58,247
14.0
4.8
4.0
7.8
10.5
8.8
Personnel
% chg
(% of Net Sales)
42.6
41.3
44.2
41.2
43.0
42.0
Depreciation& Amortisation
13,888
15,430
18,719
20,628
21,135
22,593
EBIT
27,367
27,794
26,230
27,808
32,378
35,654
% chg
13.0
1.6
(5.6)
6.0
16.4
10.1
(% of Net Sales)
28.3
26.6
25.8
23.6
26.0
25.7
894
1,774
1,102
437
600
680
4,541
5,072
5,273
6,946
7,641
8,405
14.6
16.3
17.3
20.2
19.4
19.4
31,014
31,093
30,401
34,316
39,418
43,379
% chg
8.6
0.3
(2.2)
12.9
14.9
10.0
93
(11)
(40)
(66)
PBT (reported)
30,921
31,169
30,441
34,316
39,418
43,379
Tax
10,700
11,009
10,714
11,491
13,200
14,526
34.6
35.3
35.2
33.5
33.5
33.5
20,221
20,160
19,728
22,825
26,219
28,853
2.1
9.9
7.8
3.0
9.5
9.8
Recurring PBT
Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.)
(% of PBT)
PAT (reported)
Add: Share of earnings of asso.
Less: Minority interest (MI)
351
375
332
372
427
470
19,872
19,795
19,404
22,456
25,801
28,393
ADJ. PAT
19,872
19,861
19,404
22,456
25,801
28,393
% chg
February 8, 2012
FY08
8.9
(0.1)
(2.3)
15.7
14.9
10.0
(% of Net Sales)
20.5
19.0
19.1
19.1
20.7
20.5
23.2
23.1
22.7
26.2
30.2
33.2
23.2
23.1
22.7
26.2
30.2
33.2
% chg
11.8
(0.4)
(2.0)
15.7
14.9
10.0
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12E
FY13E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital
2,139
2,139
2,139
4,278
4,278
4,278
Preference Capital
Reserves& Surplus
75,948
90,085
Shareholders Funds
78,087
Minority Interest
Total Loans
Deferred Tax Liability
Liability for abandonment cost
Total Liabilities
1,145
1,411
2,002
2,420
2,880
944
6,559
6,267
6,291
9,427
10,862
8,738
9,223
10,291
11,153
11,153
11,153
12,932
17,145
17,459
19,850
19,850
19,850
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block
Less: Acc. Depreciation
Net Block
55,668
63,794
75,543
94,293
98,157 100,564
Capital Work-in-Progress
14,423
24,758
25,616
27,379
28,194
29,283
Goodwill
2,578
11,404
9,539
8,993
8,993
8,993
Investments
4,482
3,480
5,159
3,356
3,356
3,356
Current Assets
47,534
50,715
50,566
59,412
77,512
96,140
Cash
25,056
22,596
22,384
28,688
46,223
64,464
7,068
13,264
12,057
11,904
11,904
11,904
Other
15,411
14,855
16,125
18,821
19,385
19,773
Current liabilities
23,513
28,239
30,198
39,605
41,586
42,833
24,022
22,476
20,369
19,807
35,926
53,307
674
651
841
796
796
796
February 8, 2012
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12E
FY13E
31,014
31,093
30,441
34,316
39,418
43,379
9,078
8,779
8,863
11,353
21,135
22,593
(180)
(264)
2,415
2,355
(473)
6,955
1,416
860
Depreciation
(Incr)/ Decr in Misc Exp
Change in Working Capital
Less: Other income
Others
Direct taxes paid
Cash Flow from Operations
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments
(Inc.)/ Dec. in loans and adv.
Other income
Others
Cash Flow from Investing
Issue of Equity
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)
Others
Cash Flow from Financing
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash
February 8, 2012
(7,641)
(8,405)
(2,903)
(3,238)
(2,300)
(125)
(10,508) (10,244)
28,915
28,746
41,980
41,129
43,901
902
(2,249)
1,951
(1)
(1,951)
532
(96)
7,641
8,405
2,078
3,365
1,868
(6,495)
287
(598)
4,968
(304)
40
3,136
1,435
(7,822)
(8,103)
(8,078) (10,143)
(285)
(8,748)
(8,538) (11,883)
(8,556)
(9,411)
(1,658)
(8,273) (11,760)
(5,420)
(7,976)
109
4,380
(2,460)
(592)
5,894
17,535
18,241
20,676
25,056
22,588
21,997
28,688
46,223
25,056
22,596
21,997
27,890
46,223
64,464
Key Ratios
Y/E March
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12E
FY13E
12.2
12.2
12.5
10.8
9.4
8.5
P/CEPS
7.2
6.9
6.4
5.6
5.2
4.7
P/BV
3.1
2.6
2.4
2.1
1.8
1.6
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.5
EV/Sales
2.2
2.1
2.2
1.8
1.6
1.3
EV/EBITDA
5.3
4.9
5.0
4.6
4.0
3.5
EV/Total Assets
2.2
1.7
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
EPS (Basic)
23.2
23.1
22.7
26.2
30.2
33.2
23.2
23.1
22.7
26.2
30.2
33.2
Cash EPS
39.5
41.2
44.6
50.4
54.9
59.6
DPS
8.0
8.0
8.3
8.5
9.0
10.0
Book Value
91
108
119
135
155
177
EBIT margin
28.3
26.6
25.8
23.6
26.0
25.7
65.4
64.7
64.8
66.5
66.5
66.5
1.3
1.2
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.1
24.1
19.9
15.5
15.4
16.9
18.2
Leverage (x)
24.1
19.9
15.5
15.4
16.9
18.2
ROCE (Pre-tax)
28.2
24.3
19.9
19.1
19.6
19.2
44.5
39.3
31.2
29.6
32.4
35.0
ROE
27.4
23.3
20.0
20.7
20.8
20.0
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
25
24
27
28
29
29
Receivables (days)
22
25
26
27
27
28
Payables (days)
99
109
137
134
131
132
(2)
(2)
(4)
(17)
(28)
(28)
(0.4)
(0.2)
(0.2)
(0.2)
(0.3)
(0.4)
ROIC (Post-tax)
Operating ROE
Returns (%)
February 8, 2012
(0.7)
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.8)
(1.0)
30.6
15.7
23.8
63.6
54.0
52.4
10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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ONGC
No
No
No
No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) :
February 8, 2012
11