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IPCC-
IPCC
/
IPCC
(IPCC)
IPCC
-
IPCC
UNEP
WMO
20086
IPCC
Bates, B.C., Z.W. Kundzewicz, S. Wu J.P. Palutikof, 2008
IPCC210
2008
ISBN: 978-92-9169-523-2
/
1.
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.3.1
1.3.2
1.4
2.
2.1
2.1.1
2.1.2
2.1.3
2.1.4
2.1.5
2.1.6
2.1.7
()
2.2
2.2.1
2.2.2
2.2.3
2.3
2.3.1
2.3.2
2.3.3
2.3.4
2.3.5
2.3.6
2.3.7
()
vii
viii
1
5
7
7
8
8
9
11
13
15
15
19
20
20
21
21
22
23
23
24
24
24
25
26
28
29
29
29
31
3.
3.1
33
35
3.1.1
3.1.2
35
35
3.2
3.2.1
3.2.2
38
38
43
iii
3.2.3
3.2.4
3.2.5
3.2.6
3.2.7
3.2.8
3.3
4.
4.1
4.1.1
4.1.2
4.1.3
4.2
4.2.1
4.2.2
4.2.3
4.2.4
4.3
4.3.1
4.3.2
4.3.3
4.3.4
4.4
4.4.1
4.4.2
4.4.3
4.4.4
4.5
4.5.1
4.5.2
4.5.3
4.6
4.6.1
4.6.2
5.
5.1
5.1.1
5.1.2
5.1.3
5.1.4
48
53
55
55
55
55
59
59
60
60
63
67
67
69
69
69
69
69
69
70
71
73
73
73
74
74
74
75
77
79
79
79
81
85
5.2
85
5.2.1
5.2.2
5.2.3
5.2.4
85
85
87
88
5.3
5.3.1
iv
44
44
45
45
47
47
90
90
5.3.2
5.3.3
5.3.4
90
91
92
5.4
93
5.4.1
5.4.2
5.4.3
5.4.4
93
93
93
95
5.5
5.5.1
5.5.2
5.5.3
5.5.4
5.6
5.6.1
5.6.2
5.6.3
5.7
5.7.1
5.7.2
5.7.3
5.7.4
5.8
5.8.1
5.8.2
5.8.3
6.
6.1
6.2
6.2.1 (CCS)
6.2.2
6.2.3
6.2.4
6.2.5
6.2.6
6.2.7
6.2.8 ()
6.2.9 ()
6.2.10
6.2.11
6.2.12
6.2.13
6.3
6.3.1
6.3.2
6.3.3
6.3.4
96
96
96
98
100
102
102
102
104
106
106
107
107
109
109
109
109
111
115
117
117
117
117
119
119
119
119
119
120
120
120
121
121
122
122
122
122
122
123
v
6.3.5
6.3.6
6.3.7
6.4
7.
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
8.
8.1
8.2
8.2.1
8.2.2
8.3
1:
2:
3:
4:
5:
6:
vi
123
124
124
124
125
127
128
130
130
133
135
135
135
136
136
139
165
167
183
185
187
191
193
(IPCC)
IPCC
(WCP)20024IPCC19
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http://www.ipcc.ch/meetings/session21.htm.
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IPCC ,
: TAR( : IPCC2001a,
b,c)RICC(
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:IPCC,2000)SRES(
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1.3
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8
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0.41,000 3
( 1.1)
1421(Vrsmarty
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Arnell,2004)[WGII 3.2]
,,
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[WGII 3.2]
,
,
,
(Barnett,2005)[WGII 3.2]
,
5
199870%
(2000)
1961-199030
/
1700 m3/
1.1: , WaterGAP(Alcamo,2003a)
[WGII F 3.2]
,,
,
,
70%,
90%(
)[WGII 3.2] 40%
(Fischer,2006) 1 9 6 0 ,
2%1961/1963
1.4 1997/1999 2.7 ,
18% (Bruinsma,2003)
,
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[WGII 3.2, 5.3]
,
,(UN,2006)
,()
,
(GEO-3,2003)[WGII 3.3.2,8.1]
1.3.2
1.3.2.1
IPCC(SRES)Nakienovi
Swart,2000)
,21
(1.2)
(A1B1),,
66,205087
,
(A2B2),2100,
104(B2)150(A2)
,SRES,
2100(GDP)
10-26SRES,
,
[SRES SPM]
1.3.2.2
,
9
A1
2050
A1FI
A1T
A1B
A2
B1
A1
A1
B2
A2
A2
B1A1
1.2: SRES(Nakienovi
Swart,2000)[WGII 2.5]
,
,
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,
(
,2000Scudder,2005),
,
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(MDG,7.1)
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(),
,()
[WGII 3.2.2,3.4.4]
,
,
(2005a)(
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9000,2050
1.11.4,2050
,(
IPCC SRESB1),
(,2005b)[WGII 3.3.2]
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1003/,2000(
,2005b)[WGII 3.3.2]
(
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,
0.6%
2030,
1.271.41,
(Bruinsma,2003)
,Bruinsma2030
,
,,
,,
20500-0.182050,
(IPCC SRES A1),
(
,2005a),
A2,
208040%
,
0.4% (Fischer,2006)[WGII 3.3.2]
1.4
8
(),
,,
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http://www.ipcc.ch/meetings/ar4-workshops-express-meetings/uncertainty-guidance-note.pdf.
11
(
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2.1
[WGI
3.3,7.5.2,8.2.1,8.2.59.5.4WGII 3.13.2]
2.1.1
(
)20051.6/(
1750)19062005
0.74C(
0.56C0.92C)50
20
50
50
[WGI SPM]
(Huntington2006)
[WGI 3.3]
()
()
()
(GHCN Peterson
Vose1997)(PREC/LChen
2002) (GPCP Adler
2003) (GPCC Beck
2005)(CRUMitchell
Jones2005)203085
304010
30(2.1)
25
190019501030
1970
[WGI 3.3.2.1]
19012005GHCN
(2.2)19512005
20
502070
[WGI 3.3.2.1]
GHCN5 5/
2.3
1901
1052.11979
(
)
(
2.1.7)[WGI 3.3.2.2]
15
1901
(5.1)
1979
(
2.1.7)1901
200520%
1979
1975[WGI 3.3.2.2]
1961-1990(%)
2.119611990,19002005
(%)
,,
6,
[WGI 3.15]
GHCN
GHCN
PREC/L
GPCP
VASClimOGPCC
CRU
3GPCC
2.2GHCN19002005
(,19812000)
GHCNPREC/LGPCPGPCCCRU,
[WGI 3.12]
()
[WGI 3.3.2.2]
16
(
)
[WGI 9.5.4]
( 95
)
(2.4)
(KleinTank
Knnen 2003 Kunkel 2003 Groisman
2004 HaylockGoodess2004)
(Groisman2004Haylock Goodess2004)
5[WGI 3.8.2.2]
(
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1901-2005
%/
1979-2005
%/
2.3GHCN1961199019012005(,%)1979
2005(,%)(WGI 3.13)
)20
[WGI SPM9.5.4,
10.3.6, FAQ10.1]
1970
(SST)
1970
17
1951-2003
%/
2.419012003(95)(%)
,(%,1961199022.5%)(Alexander
,2006)/,(+)()(
Groisman,2005)[WGI 3.39]
1970
[WGI SPM]
19882004
1.2%0.3%
18
SST
[WGI3.4.2 9.5.4]
19012002
7%,
15%20
0.31956199031
21
1980
3C
[WGI 4.79]
150
5.81.6
6.51.2
(Duguay
2003)
[WGI 4.3]
2.1.2.2
106 106
106
(C)
(D)
103
19662005
1112
20805%
40[WGI
4.2.2]
(B)
103/
2.1.2.1
(A) 65
(E)
106
()
75%
(F)
2.1.2
(G) 65
2.5(AE)(NH)
(B)34NH(C)(D)
()D
,
[WGI FAQ 4.1]
[WGI
4.5.24.6.2.2.1]
(2.6)
1960/611989/9013657Gt(
)/(0.370.16/(SLE))
1990/912003/0428079Gt/
(0.770.22/SLE)20
[WGI 4.5, 4.49.5]
19
103/
()
(LIA)
[WGII 1.3.1.11.2]
2.1.3
1920
201.70.5
/196120031.80.5
/ 1993 2003 3.10.7
/19932003
1993
2003
[WGI 5.ES]
19932003(1.60.5
/)(0.770.22/)
(0.210.07/)(0.210.35/)
2.80.7/
20
19612003
1993
/
20
[WGI SPM5.59.5.2]
1975
(WoodworthBlackman2004)[WGII 1.3.3]
2.1.4
10
[WGI 3.3.3]
2.1.5
2.1.4.1
[WGI
3.3.4] 600Robock
(2000)(
)(1)
(Robock2005)
(PDSI)PDSI3.1.2.4
[WGI 3.13.3.4]
(BrutsaertParlange1998)
(
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[WGI 3.3.33.2]
2.1.4.2
20
(Golubev
2001)
Qian(2006a)
2070
[WGI 3.3.3]
CO2
()
[WGI 9.5.4]
2.1.6
20
(
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(DaiTrenberth,
2002)
[WGI 3.3.49.19.5.1WGII 1.3.2]
(
)(
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(Milly2005
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ENSONAOPNA
11(Labat2004)
2014%,
(Labat2004;Legates2005)
,,
/,,
,,
,,/
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21
Gedney(2006)20
CO2(
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[WGII 1.3.2]
(
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LindstromBergstrom2004)
19362000
12
(Hodgkins2003)
(Hodgkins 2005)[WGII
1.3.2]
2.1.7
3.6
(SOI)()
()
()
[WGI 3.6.1]
SOI-(ENSO)
ENSO
(Trenberth
Caron2000)ENSO
ENSO
-(PNA)-(PSA)
11.
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(PDOIPO)
20
1976/77
(Trenberth 1990)
(TrenberthStepaniak2001)
NAO()
()(Hurrell
2003)NAM
NAO
()NAO
(Cook2002Jones2003a)
2060
2090NAO
NAO
NAM
[WGI 3.6.49.ES]
(SAM)
SAM
(Sinclair1997)
(Noone
Simmonds2002)SAM(Genthon
2003)(SilvestriVera2003)
SAM
[WGI 3.6.59.5.3.3]
()
SST70
,ENSO-,NAO,PNA-2.1.7
22
(AMOKerr2000)19301960
1905192519701990
(SchlesingerRamankutty,1994)1990
AMOAMO
(DelworthMann
2000Latif2001SuttonHodson2003;Knight
2005) AMO
, ENSO
(Enfield 2001 McCabe 2004; Shabbar
Skinner,2004)
(Goldenberg2001)AMO
(VenegasMysak2000Goldenberg
2001; Sutton Hodson 2005 Trenberth
Shea2006)[WGI 3.6.6]
2.2
8.6
[WGI 3.3.578.6]
2.2.1
(
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7.2]
[WGI 7.27.5]
(
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[WGI 67.2]
[WGI 7.28.2]
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(2.3.4)
[WGI 7.2]
[WGI 8.6]
2.2.2
()
(MOC),
21MOC
MOC
MOC(
23
MOC
(AOGCM)
21MOC
21
[WGI 10.3.4]
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[WGI 5.28.710.310.1]
2.2.3
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[WGI 7.3]
()()
(
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[WGI 7.4]
24
2.3
2030SRES
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(0.2C)SRES
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20
SRES2090
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1999)B11.8C(
1.1C2.9C)A1FI4.0C(
2.4C6.4C)
[WGI SPM10]
21
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()
[WGI 10.5.4.3]
[WGI 10.3.2.310.5.4.3]
[WGI 10.3.2.3]
2.2
()
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[WGI 8.2.18.2.28.5.28.5.310.2.1]
[WGII 3.3.1]
[WGII 3.3.1]
2.3.1
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2.3.1.1
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(
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[WGI SPM10.ES10.3.110.3.2]
(2.7)
()
()
[WGI 10.3.2]
5
SRESA1B20802099
2.8
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20%
5%
4%
24%[WGI 10.3.2]
21
()
/
[WGI 8.610.ES10.3.2]
2.3.1.2
[WGI 10.3.510.3.6]
(
2.8)15AOGCM
A2
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25
A1B2080-2099
122
A1B2080-2099
68
2.7:15122()68()(/)SRES A1B,2080
209919801999
[WGI 10.9]
30%
[WGI 10.3.6]
(2.1.1)
[WGI 10.3.6]
21
(2.9)
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[WGI 10.3.6.1]
(2.9)
(
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26
[WGI 10.3.6FAQ10.1]
[WGI SPM]
2.3.2
[WGI SPM
10.3.3]
2.3.2.1
21
(ACIA)
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9%17%
[WGI 10.3.3.211]
IPCC
21 20%
35%
30
a)
b)
c)
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(WGI 10.12)
10%
15%;
15%25%50%
208030%
50%[WGII 15.3.4]
[WGII 15.4.1.2]
27
2.3.2.2
21
11
205060%(Schneeberger
2003)7GCMCO2
(Bradley2004)
[WGI 10.7.4.210.1] 21
0.070.17
(SLE)0.15
0.37SLE[WGI 44.110
10.7]
2.3.3
20(19801999
)(20902099)
0.180.59AOGCM
SRES
SRES(B1)
211961
2003(1.80.5/)
70%75%
GCM
21
[SYR3.2.1WGI SPM10.6.5TS 5.2]
/
28
2.9A1B,9
2080209919801999
()
()(
)(),9
5
[WGI10.18]
2.3.4
(Trenberth2003)[WGI 10.9
10.12WGII 3.23.3.1]
[WGI10.12]
[WGI
10.3.2.3,10.8]
[WGII 3.4.2]
CO 2
CO 2
()
(Gedney2006
)CO 2
CO 2
(Rosenberg2003Gerten2004Gordon
Famiglietti2004Betts2007)
(Betts1997Kergoat2002)
CO2
CO2CO2
5%(Leipprand
Gerten2006Betts2007)[WGII 3.4.1]
2.3.5
(
)
(2.8b)
(2.3.2)
[WGI
10.3.2.3]
2.3.6
(WGI
10.3.2.3)(WGII 3.4)
2.8cA1B
(
)19801999
20%1/5
/0.2/
[WGI 10.3.2.3]
2.2.1CO2
[WGI 7.2]
2.1020902099
19801999SRES
A1B12
()
()
(2.1.6)
[WGII 3.4.1]
29
21
[WGII 3.4.1]
(
)
[WGII 3.4.1]
[WGII
3.4.1]
2.10209020991980199912
66%,90%(Milly,2005)(
SYR 3.5WGII 3.4)
30
2.3.7
/(NAM/
NAO)(SAM)
[WGI TS10.3.5.610.3.6.4]
SST
[WGI SPM10.3.6.3]
(ENSO)
ENSO
[WGI TS10.3.5.310.3.5.4]
()(),
[WGI 10.3.5.1]
31
3.1
3.1.1
[WGII 1.3.1.1]
(YoshikawaHinzman2003)
(5.12)(Smith2005)
(Beaulieu
Allard2003)[WGII 1.3.1.115]
3.1.1.1
(Kaser2003Box2006)
(HaeberliBurn2002)
(Bindoff2007)
(Larsen2005)
()
(Jansson2003)
(GLOF)
(Yamada 1998)(Ames1998
)
[WGII
1.3.1.1]
(Watson
Haeberli2004Mlg2005)5.10
Chacaltaya
,
,
(Rivera2005)[WGII
1.3.1.1]
3.1.1.2
65
12
3.1.2
3.1.2.1
20
2
ENSONAO
[WGII 1.3.2.1]
(Tao 2003
abHyvarinen2003Walter
2004 )
(Legates
2005)Gedney(2006)
CO2CO2
(Douglas2000)[WGII 1.3.2.1]
35
(Chen2002)
(Petheram2001)[WGII 1.3.2.1]
[WGII 3.210.4.2]
(2003)
34(FergusonGeorge2003)
()
()(
)()
()
(Smith
2005)(
12
)
(Mueller2003)Le Treut
(2007)[WGII 1.3.2.1]
3.1.2.2
[WGII 1.3.2] ,
(
)[WGII 1.3.4]
, [WGII
1.3.2][WGII Box 4.1]
,
()[WGII
3.2]
[WGII 1.3.4.41.21.6]
1960
0.2C2.0C1900
(EdwardAlbertKivuVicto
riaTanganyikaMalawi)(
)0.2C0.7C
2023
[WGII 1.3.2.3]
(Karst-Riddoch2005)
(
)(Blais2001
)[WGII 1.3.2.3]
( 3.1
WGII
SM1.3)
(Sommaruga-Wograth1997Rogora
2003)pH
(PsennerSchmidt1992)
11%13%(Vesely
2003)
(Bodaly1993)
27
[WGII 1.3.2.3]
(3.1)
2.1.2LeTreut(2007)
12
36
[WGII 3.2]
3.1.2.3
(GLOF5.4)
/
(
),(/
()
/(
)
[WGII 3.4.3]
(KronBerz2007
)
[WGII 3.2]
20
[WGI SPM-2]
10(1996-2005)
19501980
(Kron
Berz2007)
1.4(WDR20032004)
199870%(
2025%)(Mirza2003ClarkeKing2004
)[WGII 3.2]
(Mills2005)
(Huntington2006)[WGII 3.4.3]
Milly(2002)
(>100)
Kundzewicz(2005)(27)
(31)
195137
[WGII 1.3.2.2]
3.1//[WGII 1.3]
5%2590%
19351999
Ob, Lena,
Yenisey, Mackenzie
12
19362000
(0.51%)
29%
18471996
19982004
0.11.5C
40
(100)
()0.20.7C
100
(6)
100
(8)
1020
(88)
37
3.1.2.4
()
()
()(
)
[WGII 3.4.3]
2070
2070
[WGI SPM-2]
Palmer(PDSI)(Dai
2004b)[WGII 3.3.4]
20-30
20
70(
PDSI3.0)(~12%30%)
ENSO80
(Dai
2004b)[WGI 3.3.4]
38
2003
(Schr2004)300
30%(Ciais2005)
()
(BenistonDiaz,2004Zebisch,2005)
(Fink2004)[WGII 12.6.1]
3.2
3.2.1
(
)
,
(,
)[WGII 3.3.1]
2.3
3.2.1.1
(
)
[WGII 15.4.1]
3.119002002Palmer(PDSI)()PDSI
()
()131900
()()(
)
19002002PDSI67%
(Dai2004b)[WGI FAQ 3.2]
13
()PDSI
39
SRES A2B214)
215070%
215030%
[WGII 3.4.2]
(3.2)
(2%,
21509%ECHAM4
SRES A2DllFlrke, 2005)
(ECHAM4HadCM3 GCM
1961-90
1961-90
1961-90
3.2(19611990)2150(20412070)
30WGHM(ECHAM4
HadCM3SRES A2B2)(DllFlrke2005)[WGII 3.5]
14
40
[WGII 3.4.2]
(EckhardtUlbrich2003
Brouyere
2004)
(Ogallala)
20%2.5C
(Rosenberg1999)[WGII 14.4]
[WGII 3.4.2]
3.2.1.2
2.3.121
,PalmerRisnen(2002)
,CO2
()
(PalmerRisnen2002)
Milly(2002)CO2
1615
()
25
(Zhang2005)[WGII 3.4.3]
,2C,
23%29%(Mirza2003
)[WGII 3.4.3]
3.221
21
IPCC SRES[WGI SPM-2WGII SPM-2]
a
SRES
21
[4.4, 5.4]
[3.4]
[8.2]
[7.4]
3.7
41
15
[WGII 3.4.3]
()
(Reynard2004)[WGII 3.4.3]
3.2.1.3
[WGI SPM]
[WGI 10.ES]
SRES A22190
10302
6(Burke2006)[WGI 10.3.6; WGII 3.4.3]
()
(
Douville2002Christensen2007)
[WGII 3.4.3] 3.3
2170
3.319611990(Lehner2005)[WGII
3.6]
15
16
()()
1%10%
42
16
10(Lehner,2005)[WGII
3.4.3]
3.2
,
(Barnett2005),
,
(Ramrez20015.5),
,
(Barnett2005)[WGII3.4.3]
3.2.1.4
(Hall2002Kumagai
2003)(
2001)
[WGII 3.ES]
3C4C
(Nicholls1999)
/
[WGII 4.4.8, 14.4.1]
()(Leemans
Kleidon2002)(Mimikou
2000Neff2000Bouraoui2004
)
()
[WGII 3.4.4]
[WGII 3.4.4,
14.4.1] ()
[WGII
3.4.2]
[WGII 3.4.4]
2050-
13%19%(Pittock2003)
[WGII
11.4]
[WGII 3.4.4]
[WGII 3.4.2]
0.125
103628(Bobba2000
)
(Chen2004)[WGII
3.4.2]
3.2.1.5
[WGII3.4.5]
[WGII3.4.5,
14.4.1]
[WGII 3.4.5]
[WGII 3.4.5]
[WGII 3.4.5]
3.2.2
(2003)
()
43
(IWRM)17(2002
2004a2006)
[WGII 3.3.2]
(MillerYates2006)
[WGII 3.5.1]
3.2.3
3.2.4
2.1.62.3.1
3.2.1
(2000)
(Miller1997)[WGII 3.5]
5060
(Kharkina2004)
[WGII3.5]
17
44
/
(Dll,2002Dll2003)
IPCCSRESA2B2
2020
+2%+15%
6%+5%
(Dll,2002Dll2003)
21201%3%
21702%7%
B2[WGII 3.5.1]
,
,25%
15%
(EheartTornil1999)
CO2[WGII 3.5.1]
(
)
21505%(Mote
1999Downing2003)
25C
111(
2%)(Protopapas2000)[WGII 3.5.1]
IWRM1992(1)
(2) (3)
(4)
3.2.5
,(Vrsmarty,2000
Alcamo , 2003a,b,2007 Oki , 2003
Arnell,2004),
2150IPCC SRES
(Arnell2004)
(3.3)2150
SRESA2
A1B1,,
(OkiKanae,2006
)
(Arnell2004)
[WGII 3.5.1]
(
)
(Alcamo 2007)
()
215020%29%
62%76%
(SRESA2B2)
3.32050
(1,000 m3/)
[WGII 3.2]
2050
(10)
Arnell (2004)
Alcamo (2007)
1995:
2050: A2
1.4
4.45.7
1.6
6.46.9
2050: B2
2.84.0
4.95.2
(Alcamo2007)[WGII 3.5.1]
3.2.6
()
()
[WGII 3.5.1]
(
2000)
(Barnett2005)
2150
5%12%
(Middelkoop2001)
2150
(KrysanovaWechsung2002)
(Krysanova2005)[WGII 3.5.1]
()
()(Kirshen2005a)
[WGII 3.5.1]
2130
16%30%21
9030%45%
(
)2%(Chen
45
2001)[WGII 3.5.1]
1.00/m30.60/m3
(ZhouTol2005)0.02
/m3
(FAO2003)
(4.4.4
)[WGII 3.5.1]
(Schiermeier2006)[WGII 3.5.2]
20
CO2(Schreider
2000)[WGII 3.5.2]
ChoiFisher(2003)
13.5%21.5%
()
13.5%
140%
82%
89%[WGII 3.5.2]
IS92a(Kirshen
46
2005b)
2100
[WGII 3.5.2]
2180
SRES(Hall
2005)
218050
B1
10
B215
B1B2
A12150
1502180210(Evans
2004Hall2005)[WGII 3.5.2]
1921502634(Middelkoop
2001)[WGII 3.5.1]
217020
15%30%(IS92a)
19%()100%()
(Lehner2005)
20%50%
10%()39%(Lehner
2005)(20%)21
707%12%[WGII 3.5.1]
(Lofgren2002)CGCM1
2C
25%35%2002
2.43.5(Buttle2004
)HadCM218
(+3%)2500
2C
1%17%(LOSLR2006)[WGII 3.5.1]
(IWRM17)
(GWP2002Eakin
Lemos2006)[WGII 3.7]
3.2.7
3.2.8
3.4
(Dll2003Arnell,2004)
(Prudhomme2003)
(Kaspar2003)
2070
25%
2020
2050
70%
2040-2080
0.1
25
10
25%
3.4,1Bobba(2000)
2Barnet(2004)3DllFlrke(2005)4Mirza(2003)5Lehner(2005)6Kistemann(2002
),7PorterSemenov(2005),2.10(19801999)20902099SRESA1B
(%)(Milly2005)()()[WGII3.8SYR3.5]
18
47
3.4
(Kay2006a)
GCM
PrudhommeDavies(2006)
[WGII 3.3.1]
(Arnell(2004)Jasper(2004)),
[WGII 3.3.1]
GCM
[WGII 3.3.1]
[WGII
3.3.1]
GCM
GCM
()[WGI TAR
10]
(Diaz- NietoWilby2005)
(Wilby
Harris2006)
[WGII 3.3.1]
3.3
[WGII 3.6.1]
[WGII
12.2.2]
3.4
(3.5)[WGII 3.6.1]
[WGII 13.5.1.3]
(Klijn2001Richardson2002)
(ArnellDelaney2006
)[WGII
3.6.5, 17.2.2]
()
3.4()[WGII 3.5]
()
()
3.5
3.5
[WGII 17.2, 18.1, 18.5, 20.3, 20.8]
[WGII 17.4.2]
(a).
[WGII 3.6.4]
(b).
[WGII 3.6.4]
(c).
(d).
(Ivey
2004 Naess 2005 Crabbe
Robin2006)
[WGII 3.6.4]
(e).
[WGII 17.4.2.4]
(Wilby2006)
(Beuhler2003
SimonovicLi2003)
(ArnellDelaney2006)
(Dessai2005)
(Jones
Page2001)
(Wilby
Harris2006)[WGII 3.6.4]
(Stakhiv1998)
49
3.5
/
/
/
/
2.5
50
WGII 10.5,
10.8
WGII 10.5.2
WGII 11.2,
11.2, 11.2;
5.2
WGII 12.5.1
WGII 13.2.5.3,
13.2, 13.5.1
WGII 14.2.4
WGII 14.5.1
WGII 15.6.2
WGII 15.2.2.2
WGII 16.4.1
16.5
(
Beuhler2003)
(Klijn2004Olsen2006
)[WGII 3.6.4]
3.3.1
(IWRM17)
(Moench2003)
(2005)
(3.6)[WGII 3.6.1
14.2]
3.6(PulwartyMelis2001)[WGII 3.4]
()
51
4.1
4.1.1
(Burkett2005)
WGI AR43
[WGI 3.14]
19002005
[WGI 3.3.5]
4.1.2
IPCCSRESB1A1A2
2030
0.5C2CB1
(GCM)
[WGI
10.810.12]
[WGI 10.3.6.1]
[WGI 10.18]
WGIAR4 21
( 2 )
[WGII1.3,4.2] Root(2003)143
2080%
[WGII 1.4.1]
(
)
(RootSchneider2002
Burkett2005)[WGII1.3.5.54.2.24.4]
(Pounds2006)[WGII
4.1]
[WGII
9.1]
[WGII 13.4.1]
(
2005b)[WGII 3.5.1]
4.1.3
4.1.3.1
()
(
)
2[WGI TAR
55
SPM]
[WGII4.4.8]
[WGI10
11]
[CCB 4.4]
20C
[CCB 6.2]
[WGII 4.2.2]
(
)[RICC 2.3.6]
(
)
[CCB 6.7]
(Declerck
2005)IPCCAR4GCM
[WGI11.3.3.2]
(
)
56
()
(Keddy2000)[WGII 4.4.8]
(Gorham1991)
(Winter
Woo1990)
(Woo1993)
[WGII TAR 5.8.2.1]
[WGII TAR
5.8.4]
[WGII 4.4.8]
()
)[WGII
4.4.84.4.10]
[WGII 4.4.8]
[WGII 1.3]
(Hinzman2005Walsh2005)
(Yoshikawa
Hinzman2003)(Gavriliev
Efremov2003)
[WGI
4.7.2.3]
[WGII 15.4.1.3]
(ColemanHuh2004)[WGII 15.6.2]
(Keddy2000Burkett
kusler2000)
(Bauder2005)
(ChauhanGopal2001)[WGII 4.4.8]
4.1.3.3
[WGII6.4.1.3]
[WGII 6.4.1.4]
[WGI5.5.2]
(Nilsson2005
)
2,000210
(Jiongxin2003)
(Syvistki2005)
21[WGII 6.4]
Milly(2005)
50100
[WGII 6.3.22.10]
1950
(Williams1999
)(Krauss2000)
50
(Ross2000)
(SaintilanWilliams1999)
[WGII 6.4.1.4]
[WGII
6.4.1.39.4.410.4.111.4.2]
(Li2004Syvitski2005Ericson
2006)[WGII6.2.36.4.1]
197820001,565
(Barras2003)[WGII 6.4.1]
(Scavia2002)
(Moore1997)
(Justic2005)[WGII
6.4.1.3]
4.1.3.4
57
Puschendorf,2004Andreone2005Pounds
2006),
[WGII4.4.7]
[WGII1.3.5.2,4.4.7,9.4.5]
[WGII1.3.2]
19492004
74%
(Knowles2006)
2070
(BrownBraaten1998)
(Groisman
2004 ) 1950
41(SWE)1530%
(Mote2005)
2002
194814(Stewart2005)[WGII
14.2.1]
(Keller2005
Monson2006)
(Krner,
1999)
(Keller2005)
(Inouye2000)
[WGII 4.4.7]
1C
[WGII 12.4.3]
[WGII
1.3.1,3.2,3.4.3]
58
4.1.3.5
[WGII45.1.213.4]
40%
(RowellMoore2000)GCM
100
678(20%
)1212
(5%)[WGI11.6.3.2]
[WGII 13.4.2]
()
[WGII 4.4.5]
[WGII 4.4.34.4.5]
[WGII4.4.3]
(Tuchman2003)
[WGII4.4.10]
50%
10%(Fay2003a)[WGII 4.4.3]
4.2
4.2.1
[WGII 5.2.1]
(FAO2003)[WGII 5.2.2]
[WGII
5.2.25.25.3]
[WGII 5.2.2]
4.2.1.1
80%
(FAO2003)[WGII 5.4.1.2]
(FAO2003)
,
18%,10
,,
2319(FAO,2003
)
(Rosenzweig
2002)[WGII 5.4.2.1]
8.5
(FAO2003)[WGII
5.3.2.1
5.6.5]
[WGII 3.3.2]
2015
[WGII 5.6.5]
(Rosenzweig2002)[WGII
5.6.5]
GCM[WGII
5.4.1.2]
()
(2.10)4.1
[WGII 5.3.1]
4.2.1.2
40
2
(FAO2003)[WGII4.4.55.1.1,5.4.5]
,
,(1997
Liniger Weingartner, 1998 ) [LULUCF
2.5.1.1.4WGII 4.1.1]
,
(Harding1992
Lean,1996),
,(Kramer,1997
Pattanayak Kramer, 2000 ) [LULUCF
2.5.1.1.6]
(Harding1992Blythe
1994)
19
1.3()5.1.3()5.2.3
59
(Chan1986GashShuttleworth1991
Meher-Homji1992)[LULUCF 2.5.1.1.6]
(KirschbaumFischlin1996Sala2000
Gitay2001)
(Scheffer,2001Sankaran,2005)[WGII
4.1, 4.4.5]
[WGII4.ES4.4.8]
[WGII 9.2.1.4]
4.2.2
4.2.2.1
(Easterling2003)
[WGII 1.3.6]
[WGII 1.3.61.3.95.2]
4.2.2.2
60
C3()
(Thomas2003Baker
2004Caldwell2005)
450ppm
0.8C
1.5C
[WGII
5.4.1.2]
[WGII 5.4.15.8.2]
4.2.3
21
(FAO2003)
[WGII 5.8.1]
(
)
[WGII5.ES]90%
21 [WGISPM],
[WGI 11.3,11.4,11.7]
[WGII 5.4.15.4.2]
2100 [WGII 3
]
(4.1b)
(
4.1b)[WGII 5.3.1]
SI>5
SI>0
SI>85
SI>70
SI>55
SI>40
SI>40
SI<40
SI>25
[WGII 5.3.2.2]
4.2.3.1
(1
3C)
(12C)
[WGII 5.ES]
[WGII 5.ES]
TAR
4.1(a)()(Fischeretal.2002b)SI=[WGII
5.1a];(b)(19801999)20902099[SYR3.5]
61
Rosenzweig(2002)
(
)2030
30/
[WGII 5.4.2.1]
205014%83%(
2005a, b)
[WGII 3.5.1]
Dll(2002)
2070
()5%8%
(+15%)[WGII 5.4.2.1]
4.2.3.2
Fischer(2006)
2080
20%
Fischer(2006
)Arnell(2004)
(
)
(Abou-Hadid2003
)(Tao2003a)
/[WGII 5.4.2.1]
(
)
2030
(Reilly2003Thomson2005a)
[WGII 3.5.1]
FAO
2030
14%(Bruinsma2003)
2030
0%6%20500%10%[WGII
3.5.1]
62
[WGII 5.8.2]
[WGII 5.4.3.1]
(ENSO)ENSO
(4.1)
(
)[WGII 5.4.3.2]
[WGII
5.4.3.2]
4.2.3.3
(PDR)
GDP10%1,000
(MRC2003)250
(HortleBush2003)30%
(
)
(Hoanh2004)35%
41%16%19%(1961199020102038
20702099)17%24%
26%29%
()
(2004b)
20
25()(Wassmann2004)
pH
4.1
[WGII 5.4.6.1]
[WGII 5.4.6.1]
4.2.4
(
)
()
[WGII
3.5.1]
/(
)
[WGII 5.5]
4.2.4.1
63
(
)
//
()
4.2
[WGII 5.4.7]
[WGII 5.5.1]
[WGII 5.5.1]
[WGII 5.8.1]
[WGII 5.5.1]
64
[WGII 5.1.1]
4.2.4.2
(),
()(
)[WGII 5.5]
[WGII 5.4.7]
2020
(EheartTornil1999)[WGII 3.5.1]
(Huffaker2005
)[WGII 3.5.1]
(
)(
4.3)
4.3:
[WGII 5.6]
()
(Drennen1993Kishor1995
Pilon-Smits1995Cheikh2000
)
(SinclairPurcell2005)
4.2.4.3
(
)
()
()
[WGII 5.6.5]
[WGII 5.6.5]
[WGII 8]
65
[WGII 5.6.5]
(Brklacich1997)[WGII TAR
15.2.3.1]
4.2.4.4
(Lipp2001Jimnez,
2003Maya2003WHO2004)
(Magadza2000
Kashyap2004Pachauri2004)
(WHO/UNICEF
2000)[WGII 3.4.4]
10%(
)
[WGII 8.2.5]
[WGII 3.4.4]
4.2.4.5
[WGII 5.7]
[LULUCF 4.5.1]
(Mills1994)
66
20,000
50,000
(
)
[WGII
TAR 10.2.1.2]
70%(FAO2006)
()
[WGIII8.5
8.9]
/
()
[WGIII 12.1.412.1.4]
(RosenzweigTubiello2007)[WGII
5.4.2WGIII 8.5]
4.3
4.3.1
[WGII8.1.1]
4.24.4
[WGII 8.4.2.3]
50
2015
5
(MDG)
[WGII 8.1.1]
(WHO)UNICEF
11(17%)
120
42%
WHO
170
()
[WGII 9.2.2]
[WGII 8.2.2]
(
)
[WGII 8.2.58.4.2.2]
4.3.1.1
67
2003
(SenhorstZwolsman2005)
[WGII 8.2.5]
(ParkinsonButler2005)
[WGII 8.2.5]
[WGII 14.2.58.2.5]
()
[WGII 8.2.43.4.4]
(Checkley2000Singh2001
Vasilev2003Lama2004)
[WGII 8.2.5]
4.3.1.2
(GLOF)
(3.2)
[WGII
3.4.3]
[WGII 8.2.2]
68
,
[WGII8.2.216.4.5]
()
[WGII 8.2.2]
4.3.1.3
()
()
[WGII 8.2.3.1]
4.3.1.4
[WGII 8.2.6.4]
4.3.1.5
()
( )
[WGII 8.2.8]
[WGII 8.2.3.1]
(
)
[WGII 8.2.8.3]
4.3.2
[WGII 7]
(
)[WGII 1.3]
4.3.3
20
(Sutherst2004)
(Steenvoorden
Endreny2004)( )
[WGII 8.6.43.4.4]
[WGII 8.6]
[WGII 8.6.3]
[WGII 8.6.4]
4.4
4.24.3
4.4.1
4.3.1
4.4.2
4.1
69
4.1:/ [WGII 3]
(Ames1998KaserOsmaston2002)
()
4.4.3
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
f.
(du Plessis2003)
(Chen2004)
2020
417205010202080
1132(Arnell2004)
SRES[WGII 3.23.5.1]
1(
)(
70
2003)
[WGII
3.4.4]
/
(
)
()[WGII 3.3.28.6.4]
[WGII 3.4.414.4.1]
[WGII 3.4]
(Kovats2005Ebi
2006)
100
(MillerYates2006)[WGII 3.5.1]
[WGII 3.5.1]
( )
(Nchito1998Kang2001)
(Jimnez2003
)
[WGII 3.23.4.48.2.5]
(
2001)
(PCB())
[WGII 3.4.4]
(SmallNicholls2003
2005b)
[WGII 3.23.4.2]
(
)
(AlcamoHenrichs2002Ragab
Prudhomme2002)[WGII 3.3.23.5.1]
4.4.4
(Harman
2005)
(Ruosteenoja
2003)50
5
[WGII 7.4.2.3.1]
2050(
)
[WGII 3.3]
[WGII
3.53.6]
WHO
(2005)(WSP)
71
1/
0.60/(ZhouTol2005)
0.02/
[WGII 7.5]
[WGII 3.5.1]
[WGII
3.3.2]
(
)
[WGII 7.4.2.3]
(
)
(
)
[WGII 3.5.1]
72
()
[WGII 3.4.4]
[WGII
3.4.38.6.4]
(
)
[WGII
3.6]
4.5
(Shepherd2002Klein2003
2004Sherbinin2006)
(
)
(UNWWAP20032006Faruqui
2001UNDP2006)
(AlcamoHenrichs2002Ragab
Prudhomme2002)[WGII 6.4.220.3]
[WGII 6.4.27.4.2.4]
(
)
(ElsasserBurki2002Hayhoe
2004)[WGII 7.4.312.4.9]
[WGII 3.4.33.57.4.2.3]
4.5.1
11
24
(WHO/UNICEF2000)
(UN-HABITAT2003UNCHS2003
2006UNDP2006)
25%1998
(Faruqui2001)
[WGII
3.5.1]
(2005b)[WGII 7.4]
[WGII 7.4.2.4]
[WGII 6.4.1.2]
(Small
Nicholls20032005b)
4.5.2
4.5.2.1
(
)
(ArkellDarch2006)
(Suarez 2005)
(Kirshen2006)[WGII
7.4.2.3.3]
100(Shukla2005
)[WGII 7.4.2.3.3]
4.5.2.2
()
(Bigio20032003)
73
(2001
2003)[WGII 7.4.2.4]
( Graves
Phillipson 2000 )
( Sanders Phillipson
2003)
(Kharkina2004)[WGII 3.5]
(2004
)[WGII 7.6.4]
4.5.2.3
)[WGII 3.5] (
)
[WGII 7.5]
()
(EEA2005)
4.5.3
21001
300(Zeidler1997)
1
1700170
[WGII 6.36.46.5]
(
)[WGII 3.6]
[WGII 3.5]
4.5.2.4
[WGII 7.1.3]
(
)
(3.211092.07
109)(
780613)(Harrison
Whittington2002)
(Whittington
Gundry1998Magadza2000)
IS92a
217020
15%30%19%()
100%()(Lehner2005
74
4.6
4.6.1
2070
[WGII 1.3.8.5]
10%
(
)
1998)[WGII 7.4.2.2.4]
4.6.2
( Braun
1999Uyarra2005)
()
()
[WGII7.4.2.2.3](
)[WGII
11.4.9.12.4.9.14.4.7]
(Kirshen2006)10
1(1300
)
(Compton2002)[WGII 7.4.2.3.3]
()
(
)[WGII 7.4.2.1]
()
(
(
)(UNEP/GRID-Arendal
2002)[WGII 7.4.2.2]
[WGII 7.4.2.2.2]
[WGII 18.5]
[WGII 17.2.3]
75
Arnell(2004)IPCC
20
SRESHadCM3 2050
,
,(
2.82.9),
,,
2025 ,
,1000//
22
1000-1700//,
4.6
23
,(UNEP/GRID-Arendal,2002)
,
,,
2000 47% 2025
65%(Ashton,2002),
[WGII 9.2,9.4]
,
,,
,2020,
0.32%,
0.6%(New,2002)
,Conway(2005),
,
,
[WGII
9.4.2]
()
()
5.1.1
,
,
,1993-1997,19971998(,
),1997
(Mercier,2002)
(
5.1)[WGII 9.2.1.1,1.3.2.3]
(mm)
5.1
5.1(a)
()(b)(600)(c)
[
](OReilly2003)2003[WGII 1.2]
5.1.2
5.1.2.1
(,Dai,2004a),
20
22
23
(1990)1000
21
79
(,ENSOAMO)2050
60,207090
(79)9
2030,
(5.2)
1982/83,
[WGI 3.7.4],
(
),
[WGI 9.5.4]
5.1.2.2
25%,
69%
(Vrsmarty,2005),
,,,
20
90,2000
62%(WHO/
UNICEF,2000)[WGII 9.2.1]
5.1.2.3
(Warren,2006)[WGII 9.4.2] ,
70%,
,,
51%8%
,99%80%
[WGII 9.2.2.8]
5.1.2.4
,
(,2000),
,2060,
,2060
,,19311960
30,1968-19902040%(Nicholson,2000;ChappellAgnew,2004;Dai
,2004a)ENSO
,(NAO)
(NicholsonSelato,2000)[WGII 9.2.1]
5.2:1920-2003(10N20N 18W20E)
(4-10)(Dai2004a))()
()[WGI 3.37]
80
(Hay,2002a;Craig
,2004)[WGII 8.2.8.2]
,
,
(Thomson,2005b)
(Thomson,2006)
(DaSilva,2004)[WGII 8.2.8.2]
,
, ( Hay
,2002a,b;Shanks,2002),
,
,
(Patz,2002)
2070,
,(Pascual
,2006),
,,
(Craig,2004)
HIV(Craig
,2004)[WGII 8.2.8.2]
,
(-)
(Bouma,2003)
3-4
(GithekoNdegwa,2001)
50208090
,
(Abeku,2003)
,
,
(Zhou,2004,2005),
(Hay,2005)[WGII
8.2.8.2]
,
,
,
,
(Kosek,2003),
,,(Nchito
,1998;Kang,2001)[WGII 8.2.5,9.2.2.6]
5.1.2.5
,GDP
GDP
,,21%(10%70%)
(Mendelsohn,2000b)GDP
,,,
,
,
,
(Mendelsohn,2000a,b;Stige,2006)
[WGII 9.2.1.3]
5.1.2.6
[WGII 9]
,
(,
5.1)
,
,
(UNEP/GRIDArendal,2002),
,207090,
20
25-35(Gonzalez,2001)
/
;(ECF
,2004)[WGII 9.2.1.4]
5.1.3
5.1.3.1
2025,
20,,
[WGII 9.4.1]
SRES,
20202050,
7500~2.53.5~6
(Arnell,2004),
81
20(5.3
5.1)1976150
(Hemp2005)
5.3: (Hemp2005)
5.1: (Hemp2005)
1976 (km2)
2000 (km2)
(%)
1066
974
-9
187
32
-83
202
257
+27
69
218
+216
90
44
-51
(Arnell,2004),2055,
(5.4),
,
(Arnell,2006a)[WGII 3.2,3.2,
3.4,9.4.1,9.3]
1
,,
10%(Agoumi,2003)[WGII 9.4.1,3.2,3.4.2]
,
,
,,
[WGII 3.4.2,3.5]
,,
(Riebsame
,1995;Salewicz,1995)[WGII TAR 10.2.11,
82
5.1.3.2
2055
2055
5.4: 1961-1990()(Arnell2006b)
1000m3//HadCM3
[WGII 9.3]
10.1]
5.1.3.3
,
(MARA/ARMA)202020502080
(Thomas,2004)
20502080,
(
,Hartmann,2002),2100,
,
[WGII 9.4.3]
,
1997/98
,
,(3.2.1.2)
,
(;Warren,2006)[WGI
11.1,11.2.3;WGII 9.4.3,5.4.3.1]
5.1.3.4
(Thornton
,2006),
2100,90%,
,
(Benhin,2006)[WGII 9.4.4]
5.2
,
,
,,
,
(Thornton,2006),
,
,(Parry
,2004)[WGII 9.4.4]
,
,
( Cury
Shannon,2004)[WGII 9.4.4]
(Seo
Mendelsohn,2006)14%
9%(-50)[WGII 9.4.4]
83
85%GDP20%
70%(ElGindy2001)
(EPIQ2002ICID2005)2017
(Wahab2005)
(Abou-Hadid2006Eid2006)
(Attaher2006)
20501.15-1.79SRES
(Conway2005)
5.1.3.5
5000,
2050,
,(
,
)51-61%
(2800)
,2%
,,
,
,
,
(5.3)[WGII 4.4,9.4.5,9.1]
84
5.3:
[WGII 4.1]
19902.5-3.0 C
2459%
2840%
1370%
1880%
2145%
66%
,
[WGII 9.3.1]
,/
,
,
[WGII 9.4.5]
,
,
,[WGII 4.4.3] ,
25-40%
[WGII 9.4.5]
5.1.4
,,
(Leary,2006)[WGII 17.1]
[WGII 9.4.1]
25%(2)
,(
5.1.3.1)[WGII 9.ES] ,
,,,2025
,
[WGII 9.4.1] ,
,,
,
[WGII 9.5.2]
ENSO,
[WGI 3.7.4,3.6.4,11.2]
,ENSO,
;
;
;
(Glantz,2001)[WGII 17.2.2]
,
,(
)[WGII 9.2.1]
( Agoumi, 2003;
Conway,2005),
(,de Wit
Stankiewicz,2006)[WGII 9.4.1]
,
(Osman-Elasha,2006),
,
[WGII
9.5.1,17.1]
,
,
,
,
(Stern,
2007)[WGII 9.5.2]
5.2
5.2.1
,
43,
203000,11
1000-3000,61000
(6)(FAO,2004a,b,
c)[WGII 10.1] ,
[WGII 10.2]
,/
,,
,,
,
[WGII 10.2]
5.2.2
5.2.2.1
()
,
,20,
,
85
(TrenberthHoar,1997;Aldhous,2004),
[WGI
3.3.2,3.7.1;WGII 10.2.2,10.2.3]
,
,
,
(Zhai ,1999;Khan ,2000;Shrestha
,2000;IzraelAnokhin,2001;Mirza,2002;Kajiwara
,2003;Lal 2003;Min ,2003;Ruosteenoja
,2003;Zhai Pan,2003;Gruza
Rankova,2004;Zhai,2004),,
,(Manton
,2001;Kanai,2004;)[WGII 10.2.3]
,
,
, ENSO (Webster
,1998; Duong,2000;PAGASA,2001;Lal,2002,
2003;Batima, 2003;GruzaRankova,2004;Natsagdorj
,2005)[WGI3.6;WGII 10.2.3]
[WGI 4.7.2]
,
,
(Osterkamp ,2000;Guo
,2001;IzraelAnokhin,2001;Jorgenson,2001;Izrael
,2002;Fedorov Konstantinov,2003;Gavriliev
Efremov,2003;MelnikovRevson,2003;Nelson,2003;Tu
merbaatar,2003;ACIA,2005)[WGII 10.2.4.2]
,2060
(2.6)[WGI 4.5.2] ,
,,/
-,-
(Hewitt,2005)[WGI 4.5.3] ,
,
(Bhadra,2002;WWF,2005)[WGII 10.2.4.2]
5.5
(1780)
,,
,
,,
86
5.5: 1780(
)(2001
99NASA EROS)[WGII
10.6]
,
,[WGII 10.6.2]
,
,,
,
,
,
-
-,
,
(Abu-Taleb,2000;RagabPrudhomme,2002;BouZeidEl-Fadel,2002;UNEP/GRID-Arendal,2002)
,ENSO
,,
,
(Manton,
2001)[WGII 10.2.4.2]
5.2.2.2
,
(Wijeratne,1996;Agarwal
,2000;Jin,2001;Fischer,2002a;Tao,2003a,2004)
[WGII 10.2.4.1]
5.2.2.3
,
,,
(Bou-ZeidEl-Fadel,2002)
,
,,
(Zhang,2003)[WGII 10.2.4.4]
,
1999-2001,
,
(Pan,2003)[WGII
10.2.4.4]
5.2.3
5.2.3.1
,
,
,
(Peterson,2002)
()
,CO2
,GCM1.2C,
15%,
(Bou-ZeidEl-Fadel,2002)
35-41%,
16-19%,1961-1990,20102038,2070-2099
,17-24%,
26-29%(Hoanh,2004)[WGII 5.3],
,,
[WGII 10.4.2.1]
,
,
(Iafiazova,1997)[WGII 10.4.2.1]
,
10-20(Shen,2003;Yin
, 2003; Thanh , 2004)
,
( Hu , 2001)
0.4-1.0
1-3(HuangXie,2000)
(Xu,2003;Thanh,2004;Huang,2005),
[WGII
10.4.2.1,10.4.3.2]
,
,
,,,
,,
(Batima,2004,2005)[WGII
10.4.2,10.6]
,
,
[WGII 10.4.2,10.6]
,
1961-1990,2050,
27%
10-15%,
(Qin,2002),
,
,,21
,
20%-40%(Tao,2005),
Higashi
(2006),SRES AlB,2050-2300
,()1.1-1.2
[WGII 10.4.2.3]
,
20011820m3/20501140m3/
(GuptaDeshpande,2004),
2025,
1000m3(CWC,2001)
,
,
,
87
,
,
,SRES,212050,
1.2-121.85-9.81
(Arnell,2004)21,
13-19%,16-24%,
(ADB,1994)[WGII
10.4.2]
5.2.3.2
(
),
(,2002)[WGII 10.4.2]
5.2.3.3
1C,
10%( Fischer
,2002a;Liu,2002)Tao(2003b)
,
,,
,2.8
2.10,
,
,
70%(Liu
,2001;Qin,2002)[WGII 10.4.1]
[WGII 10.4.1.2]
5.2.4
,
,
,
[WGII 10.2.4,10.4,10.6]
,
,
88
,
,
,,
(Leary,2006)[WGII 17.1] ,
,
,(
)
(5.4)[WGII 17.2,17.5,16.5]
,()
(Wang,2003),
(Frolov,2004)
[WGII 10.5.2]
,
,
,
,
;
[WGII 10.5.2]
,
,
,
(,),
,,,
,,
,,
[WGII 10.5.2,10.5.7]
(Khimti)
1998
(GLOF)
319
Tsho Rolpa
20024320GLOF
GLOF
Tsho Rolpa
20500.38/20900.54/[WGII 1.3.1.1]
Mool(2001)OECD(2003)ShresthaShrestha(2004)
89
5.3
5.3.1
,,
(
2.1.7)2002,
18951902,
[WGII
11.2.1 ,11.2.4]
20 80
(WoodsHoward-Williams2004)2060
55%(2000)19851996,
65%(NLWRA, 2001)
,
(SOE,2001;Cullen,2002)
,,
[WGII
11.ES,11.2.4,11.7]
5.3.2
20,
5 - 7
,,
50%(5.7)
20,
20%,1.7%(IOCI,2002)
,,
(IOCI,2002),
,2006,
[WGII 11.6]
G1
1911-1974 (338G1)
1975-1996 (177G1)
1997-2005 (115G1)
5.71911-2006http://www.watercorporation.com.au/D/
dams_streamflow.cfm ()[WGII 11.3]
90
5.3.3
[WGII 11.4.10]
5.3.3.1
5.3.3.3
2030,
,
[WGII11.ES]-
,
70%(MDBC,2006)SRES A1B1
GCM,2050
10%-25%,210016%-48%,
-8 +19% -25 +72%( Beare
Heaney, 2002) [WGII 11.5]
29 0-45%( Jones
Durack,2005)A2,,1961-1990
,2021-2050,
6%-8%,
14%(Chiew,2003)(SRES
B1A1BA1F)
,2020,3%-11%,
20507%-35%;,2020,-
(Howe,2005)
[WGII 11.4.1]
, ,
(WoodsHoward-Williams,2004)
,,
,
(,)
,(Mullan
,2005)
ENSOIPO(McKerchar
Henderson,2003),
(Namjou
,2006),
[WGII 11.4.1.1]
5.3.3.2
,
,,
,
,
,
(,2004)
(
)
,
,
(Woodruff,2002,2006)
;
(),
,
,
(McMichael,2003)[WGII 11.4.11]
(Davis,1997;SOE,
2001) ,
,
(Falconer,1997)
,,
(Viney,2003)[WGII
11.4.1]
5.3.3.4
,
[WGII11.7] ,
,
,
(Sorensen,2000)
,
(Hood,2002;Miller
Veltman,2004;Jenkins,2006)[WGII 11.4.3]
5.3.3.5
2020,
,
(,)
,
(BunnArthington,2002;HallBurns,2002;Herron
,2002;Schallenberg,2003)[WGII 11.ES,11.4.2]
91
5.3.4
,-
,
(,2005),
(,
)(5.2)[WGII
11.2,11.6],
,
,
[WGII 11.5]
,
,
,
(,
),
,
,(Beare
Heaney,2002)
,
,
[WGII 11.5]
,
,
,
[WGII 11.2.5]
,
[WGII 11.7]
200120067
DAFF, 2006b
2004-200915
DAFF, 2006a
2004-20094
DPMC, 2004
20122.25
,2006
20151.53
,2006
20103.76
DSE, 2006
39800
682500
DEUS, 2006
(Qld)
2005-2010
1.82
3.02
,2005
2025
2005
(WA)
(2003)(
)
1996-2006
1996-2006
5
2.90
,2003,2006;
2006
92
5.4.2
5.4
5.4.1
,,
;
()
,
,[WGIITAR
13.1.2.1]
-
,,
(EEA,2004)
,
,
,
,
,,[WGII
12.2.3,SPM]
;,
[WGII TAR 13.1.2.1]
1946-1999
(Klein Tank,2002),
NAO(Scaife
,2005), 1950-2000
(NorrantDougudroit,2006)
,,
(Frich,2002;Klein
Tank,2002;Alexander,2006)
(Auer,2007),
,
5.3[WGI ;WGII 12.2.1]
5.4.3
5.4.3.1
,,
,,
,
Risnen(2004)
(SRES
A2,70%),
Giorgi(2004)
,,
,
(
30-45%)[WGI 11.1;WGII 12.3.1.1]
Viner2006
Frauenfeld2004Mazhitova
2004
LaternserSchneebeli2003Martin
Etchevers2005
Hoelzle2003
93
(5.3)
(Werritty,2001;Andrasson,2004),
(Chang,2002;Etchevers
,2002;MenzelBrger,2002;Iglesias,2005)
A2B2,
(47N)2120
5%-15%,2170,
9%-22%(Alcamo,2007),(47N
),21200-23%,
21706%-36%()
(Krger,2002),
(Somlydy,2002),
(Eitzinger,2003)[WGII12.4.1,
12.1]
,
,,
(Arnell,2003,2004)[WGII3.4.1]
,(MiddelkoopKwadijk,2001)
(Szolgay,2004)
(Oltchev,2002),,
,
,,
(Hock,2005)50%(ZierlBugmann,2005)
50%(Eckhardt
Ulbrich,2003),80%(Santos
,2002)[WGII 12.4.1]
,
(Dll,2002;DonevskaDodeva,2004)
(,),
(Holden,2003)
,(/
40%) ,
(Alcamo,2003b;Schrter,2005)[WGII 12.4.1]
(5.4)
,,
,
,
[WGII12.4]
Christensen Christensen( 2003) Giorgi
(2004)Kjellstrm(2004)Kundzewicz(2006)
,
,
,
(Llasat,2001)[WGII 12.3.1.2]
Schr(2004),
,,
21,,
(Polemio
Casarano,2004)Good(2006),
50%,,
(Lenderink,2007),
,
,
(),
(Douville,2002)
5.4: ECHAM4HadCM3[WGII
12.2]
2020
15%23%a
2050
20-30%b
2070
30%36%a
80%b, d
2170
10()
c
94
()
()
()
[WGII 3.4.3,12.3.1]
,2180,
(Kay,2006b),
,
( Reynard , 2004) Palmer
Risnen(2002)CO2
,CO2
,
,
(5-7),
[WGII 3.4.3]
5.4.3.2
(
19.8%)2170,
6%,20%-50%,
15%-30%,
(Lehner,2005)
(OlesenBindi,
2002)[WGII 12.4.8.1]
5.4.3.3
,
(Miettinen,
2001;Hunter,2003;Elpiner,2004;KovatsTirado,
2006)
,(Howe
,2002;Kistemann,2002;Opopol,2003;Knight
,2004;Schijvende Roda Husman,2005)[WGII
12.4.11]
5.4.3.4
,
()(MeehlTebaldi,2004;Schr
, 2004; Beniston , 2007)
( Jones , 2003b) , ( Trnka ,
2004),
,(,
,),
(,)
[WGII 12.4.7.1]
5.4.3.5
,
()
[WGII 12.4.3]
( ACIA,2004)
(Ivanov
Maximov,2003)
,(Moss,2003;Straile
,2003;Briers,2004;Eisenreich,2005)
,
( Bouraoui , 2004; Kaste
,2004;Eisenreich,2005),
(Jeppesen,2003)
,(Sand-Jensen
Pedersen,2005)[WGII 12.4.5]
,
(Gutirrez Teira,2003)[WGII 12.4.6]
5.4.4
(IPCC,2001b)
(Hooijer,2004),
,(Helms
,2002)(Somlydy,2002)
(Silander,2006),
[WGII 12.5.1]
,
,
(Santos,2002;Iglesias,2005),
(Barreira,2004)
(Schrter,2005)
,,
,
(Geres,2004),(Iglesias
,2005),
(AEMA,2002),,
(DonevskaDodeva,2004;Geres,2004)
(Iglesias,2005)
(Kabat,2002;Cosgrove,2004;Kashyap,2004),
,,
(DonevskaDodeva,2004)[WGII 12.5.1]
95
(,)
,
[WGII 3.ES,3.2,3.6]
()
10%;
50%;
(,)
[WGII 13.2.4.1]
5.5
5.5.1
,
,
,
,
10-20,
2-3/[WGII 13.2.4.1]
(5.9)
(5.5)
-,
[WGI 4.5.3]
-
30%
,,
(Mata,2001),
ENSO
5.5
5.8
5.5.2
5.5.2.2
5.5.2.1
2001
,GDP(Kane,2002)
,[WGII
13.2.2,13.2.4]
,
,ENSO
(,
(19992005);
(20002002),(2005),
(2002)(2006)
,(2004),
2005)
1970-19992000-2005,
1.4,2090,
20002005
19%,
200(Nagy,2006)[WGII
13.2.2]
[WGII 13.2.2]
96
5.5.2.3
,
,,
,
(Gagnon,2002)/
()(Patz
,2005),
, (Ko
,1999;Kupek,2000)
,
,--
,,/
,
-/(Marengo2004)
19491999
(Ronchail2005)
1970
-(PenalbaVargas2004)
19002000
+1 SD +2 SD
(Bidegain2005)
19612002
+ 20
-(Camilloni2005)
50
-50
(Pabn2003)
20042006(WGII 13.1)
19611990
-4 +6
20059
7086614
(NOAA2005).
20052
()520063
17. 5(UCV2005DNPC2005/2006)
20042006
-20043.6121(SRA2005)
2004/05
-(http://www.cptec.
inpe.br/)
-65%56%(http://www.ibge.gov.br/home/ : http://www.ibge.
gov.br/english/)
(WGII 13.3)
35
22%(5.9)12%(60%)
7000106m3
c
30
80%50188106m3
d
19902000
82%100
e
19561998
f
1990s
5.5
a, b
(Hurtado-Diaz,2006)[WGII 13.2.2,8.2.8.3]
13.2.2,13.2.4]
5.5.2.4
5.5.2.5
,
,
38%18%13%12%
,7%[WGII
,
,
(
),,
[WGII 13.2.2]
97
(a)
(b)
5.8: (a)(1960-2000);P0.05(
,Haylock(2006))(b)(1961-2003),
,,(,
Aguilar(2005))[WGII 13.1]
5.5.3
(1995)SRES,2120,
12008100,2150
,79001.78(Arnell,2004)
,5.6
,
,
,
[WGII 13.4.3]
5.5.3.1
5.5.3.2
,
,
,()
1977-2001,
,
17%,
[WGII 13.2.2]
,,B2
,21001C
4C,A22C6CGCM
(),
,,
,
,
AOGCM,
,
[WGI11.1,11.6;WGII
13.ES,13.3.1]
,
(1000m3//)2220
98
,(UNMSM,2004)
,
,(Ramrez
,2001)[WGI 4.5.3;WGII 13.2.4]
5.5.3.3
2.62 , 31%,
()
(PAHO,2003)SRES
,,,
,
,
(van Lieshout,2004)
120
100
80
60
1850
1900
1950
2000
5.91925(100),
(%)(Georges,2004)1990
,620[WGI
4.16]
(16S)1940,
0.22,(2005)0.01(5.10)(Ramrez,2001;Francou
,2003;Berger,2005)19922005,90%,97%(Berger
,2005),,2010(Coudrain
,2005),[WGI 4.5.3],
20800C1050(Vuille,2003)
5260,2090,,
,,(5.10)
5.1019402005,2005,
(1940)1940,800,1996,
600(1940,),2004,
FrancouVincent(2006)Jordan(1991)[WGII 1.1]
99
5.6: HadCM3GCM,
()(Arnell,2004)[WGII
13.6]
GCM
1995
2025
2055
A1
22.2
35.7
21.0
54.0
60.0
A2
22.2
55.9
37.066.0
149.3
60.0150.0
B1
22.2
35.7
22.0
54.0
74.0
B2
22.2
47.3
7.077.0
59.4
62.0
,2010,
(Aparicio,2000;NC-,2001)
,
[WGII 13.4.5]2025 2055
,
(Hales2002)
,
()(Aparicio2000;PetersonShaw2003)
(Peterson
2005)[WGII 13.4.5]
5.5.3.4
,
SRES
A2,2020
100,2050,
,2080,400[WGII
13.5,13.4.2]
5.5.3.5
,
,
,
,
,
2150,
,50% [WGII
13.ES,13.4.1,13.4.2]
100
5.5.4
5.5.4.1
(GNP)
()
(SolanesJouravlev2006),
(Fay
2003b)
IRDBIDFB,
1992
(IRDB,2000)
,
,
( )(La
Nacin,2002),
,
(
)
()(
)()
(,2001;21,2002)
,NGO(ASA)
,P1MC,
100
(BSAT)100
,ASA
12400,200421000
(Gnadlinger2003),20002002,
-
10
(BasnNickisch2002)[WGII 13.2.5]
5.5.4.2
60%
(
)
,
(COHIFE,2003)(5.6)[WGII
13.5]
5.6.[WGII 13.2]
,,,
,,
,
,,
,,
;,(5.11)
(Treacy,1994;WrightValenciaZegarra,2000;CaranNelly,2006)
,(Burger,1992)
5.11()
(Orlove
,2000),,
1000
,,,
,(Baodel
Inca),(Tampumacchay)(Cortazar,1968)
,;(Burger,
1992)(Ollantaytambo),,
,,
,(Canziani
Mata,2004),,
,
,,(Carey,2005;Bradley
,2006),
,
(ECLAC)(Dourojeanni,2000)
101
;,
()(VillagrndeLen,
2003)[WGII 13.5]
5.6
5.6.1
,
(
)
5.7 ,
[WGII
14.ES]
,
,20,
,
[WGII
14.ES,14.1]
5.6.2
5.6.2.1
(GCM)
2100,,
[WGI
11.5.3.2;WGII 14.3.1] A1B,
+20%,+30%
[WGI 11.5.3.3;WGII
14.3.1],
,
[WGI 10.3.6.1;WGII 14.3.1]
21,
,,(
),[WGII
14.4] ,
,
[WGII 14.2,15.2]
102
5.7(
, )
1-4
AR4
[WGII 1.314.2]
[WGI 4.2]
[WGI 3.3]
[WGI 4.2]
[ [WGII 14.2]
[WGII 14.2]
[WGII 14.2]
(0.11.5C)
[WGII 1.3]
[WGII 14.2]
[WGII 6.4]
[WGII 14.2 ]
,
,
,
[WGII 14.2,14.4]
,-
[WGII 14.ES,14.2]
,
(
) () (
,,
,;
,[WGII 14.4.1]
,
[WGII 3.4] ,
,
[WGII 3.4.2]
5.6.2.2
,
,2090,
,,1999,
(CCME,2003)[WGII
4.2]
2-3C,,
,
( ),
(Christensen,2004),
(MoultonCuthbert,2000;Lofgren
,2002;Mirza,2004)
(4.37-6.60/),
(2800-4200/)
(Buttle,2004;Ouranos,2004)
,
(Ouranos,2004)[WGII 3.5,14.4.8]
60N(
A1B2080-20991980-1999
)[WGI 10.10]Pan(2004)
;0-20%
(CO2HadCM2RegCM224
)[WGII 14.4.8]
,,
33/106,1.83/109
(Walsh,2003)
,
(RegCM2CO2
)(Brown,2000)[WGII 14.4.8]
24
5.6.2.3
,
,,(
Curriero,2001)
(Thomas,2006)
,
(Schuster,2005)
(Dwight,2002)
,
,
(Fleury,2006)[WGII 14.ES,14.2.5]
[WGI SPM]
2005,
1800[WGII6.4.2],
(CDC,2005;Manuel,2006)[WGII
8.2.2;4.5]
5.6.2.4
,,,
( ),TAR
(Reilly,2002),
,,,
,( )(Hayhoe
,2004;White,2006)[WGII 14.4.4]
,
()
(Parson,2003)
(Vasquez-Leon2003)
(,)
(Antle2004)
(Polsky
Easterling,2001)[WGII 14.4.4;4.2.2]
,
,( ),
[WGII 14.4.1]
103
,
(,,
)
(HatfieldPruger,2004;Nearing
,2004)[WGII 14.4.1]
5.6.2.5
,
,
,(Smith
, 2000) ( Zavaleta Hulvey,
2004)[WGII14.4.2]
(2040
)
,(Ross,2000)[WGII 1.3.3.2]
[WGII
6.4 ]
,,
(Berthelot,2002),
,
,
,
90,
(Barber,2000)Bachelet(2001)
,1C,
11%[WGII14.4]
,3C
,,,
(Johnson,2005)
[WGII 4.4.10]
;;,
104
(GallagherWood,2003)
(Wrona
,2005),,
,
, (Jones
,2006)
(Clark,2001;Mohseni,2003)
[WGII 14.4]
5.6.2.6
5.75.8,
(
),
5.6.3
,
,
[WGII
14.5.2]
[WGII 14.7]
;,
[WGII14.7],
,
(NAST,2000;Lemmen
Warren,2004)
,
(PaavolaAdger,2002)[WGII 14.5]
,
5.7
(Pulwarty
,2005),2500,20203800100,
14%,1934,65%
,
,,400,
(1905-1925),,1999
,30%-40%,2000-2004,
,,,
(Pulwarty,2005)
,(15%)(85%)
,,21,30%(Milly,2005),
202560%-75%(Christensen,2004)
2050,2050
(),,
,
(),,20,
,(Pulwarty,2005)
,
,
(
,2003;Wheaton,2005),
(
)
(WallSmit,2005)[WGII 14.2.4]
,
(MWD,2005)[WGII 14.3]
,
[WGII 14.5.1]
( Munich
Re, 2004; Mills Lecompte, 2006) [WGII
14.2.4]
Jones,2006)[WGII 14.2.4]
20 80
27% 34%(
2005)[WGII 14.2.4]
,
(MWD,2005)[WGII
14.3]
,
(Smit
Wall,2003)[WGII 14.2.4]
;
,
(Hunt,2005)[WGII 14.5.1]
()
,
/ ( Changnon
Changnon,2000)[WGII 14.5.1]
15%,
(Elsasser,2003;
,2004;Scott,2005;JonesScott,2006;Scott
105
5.8[WGII 14.2]
()
,(1964
)(1974)
(Miles,2000;Hamlet,2003)()
,,(Gray,1999;Scott
,2004),,
(Miles,2000;Mote,2003)
,,,
,(HamletLettenmaier,1999;Mote,1999)
,,
,(Miles,2000)
,21402C
570/2080/490
/(Mote2003),(Hamlet
,2002;LettenmaierHamlet,2003;Gamble,2004;Payne,2004)43,
,
(ISRP/ISAB,2004)
,
(Miles,2000;Parson,2001;Cohen,2003),()
(IPCC IS92aHadCM2ECHAM4/OPYC3AOGCM212090
)(HamletLettenmaier,1999)21,25%(Mote,1999),
,,
10%,(PDO)17%4,
10%-20%,(Payne,2004)
(Cohen,2006)
,
,
(Waters,2003)[WGII
14.5.1]
1970,35%(
100),7%(
,2002),
[WGII 14.3]
2004,
,
(Cohen,2004;
,2004)[WGII 3.1,20.8.2]
106
5.7
5.7.1
,
,
,
,
(
)()(
,)
(400Bogoyavlenskiy
Siggner,2004),,
,,
,
,(
5000
),,
,
(HildStordhal,
2004)[WGI 10.6.4;WGII 15.2.1]
,
,
(,Shiklomanov,2000;Prowse,
2004)
,
,
2030,
(7%Peterson,2002),20
,
,
(DyurgerovCarter,2004)
,
,
(AbdalatiSteffen,2001;Johannessen
,2005;Walsh,2005)
,,,
(McClelland,2004),,
()
,-
(,Gibson,2006;Peters
,2006)[WGI 9.5.4;WGII 15.4.1.1]
,
,
1%
(McBean,2005;Walsh,2005)
,
,(Yang
,2002;Berezovskaya,2005),
,
(Yang,2004a,b)
(
),60,
,,
(Yang,2002)(Yang
,2004b)
,,
,
(Walsh,2005)[WGII
15.2.1,15.4.1.1]
,
(Walsh,2005),
,
(Serreze,2003;Berezovskaya,2005;Zhang
,2005)20,
,
(Smith,2005;
5.12),
,,
,
,
/
(Korhola,2002;Ruhland,2003;Pienitz
,2004;Smol,2005;Prowse,2006)[WGI4
;WGII 15.4.1.1]
,
,,
,(DryValleys)
,(Doran
,2002),,
(Quayle,2002),
(Quayle,2003)[WGII 15.2.2.2]
5.7.3
,
,GCM
,,
,,
10%-30%,
107
,
,
,
,
,,
[WGI 10;WGII
15.4.1.3]
5.12,
(20701997-2004
,),
,
Smith,(2005)
AAAS[WGII 15.4]
(,Callaghan,2005)
CO2(,Gedney
,2006)
(Anisimov
Belolutskaia,2004;Instanes,2005)
/
(Syvitski,2002),
( Bogaart van
Balen 2000; Vandenberghe, 2002) [WGI 10
;WGII 15.4.2.3,15.4.1.2]
108
(Walsh,2005)
,/
,
(Beltaos,2006;Prowse,2006)
,
,,
(Prowse,2006)[WGII 15.4.1.2,15.6.2]
,
(Prowse,2006;Reist2006a,b,c;Wrona
,2006)
,(,
),
(Nuttall,2005;Reist,2006a)[WGII 15.4.1.3]
,
,
( , ) ( MacDonald
,2003)(Wrona
,2006)
,
/(
,1997;Martin2005)
,
,(Warren
,2005)[WGII 15.4.1]
;
;
;
(,2000;Prowse
,2004; Instanes,2005)
,IS92a,
20,
15%-30%[WGI
3.5.1,WGII 15.4.1.4]
5.7.4
,
(,Ruhland,2003),
(Wrona,2006),
(Wrona,2005)[WGII 15.2.2.2]
,,
(,
)/
(,
;ProwseBeltaos,2002)
,
,
(McBean,2005;Nuttall,2005)[WGII
15.2.2.2]
5.8
5.8.1
TAR(17;IPCC,2001b)
(,
),,
25
26
25
1.
2.
3. ,
(SIDS),
,
,
,
,,
(
),
()
[WGII 16.ES,16.5.2]
5.8.2
(
),
[WGII 16.7.1] TAR,
,1901-2004
,,
,
[WGII 16.2.2.2]
,1910,
(SPCZ) 26
,0.6C-1.0C,
2070,,
SPCZ0.3C-0.5C,
2040
(Salinger,2001;Folland,2003)
,1971-2004,
0.24C-0.5C,
,
(McBean,2005)[WGII 16.2.2.2]
1961-2003 ,
(UNFCCC),GHG
SPCZITCZ,,
109
,
,,
,
( Manton
2001;Griffiths2003),
2050
(Petersen
2002)[WGII 16.2.2.2]
,1.5C-2C
[WGII TAR 17]
(
),
- 20507-8%,
- 20506-8%,
- 205020%,
,
ENSO
,
,
,
,,
,,
,1970,
,SST
,
1970
,20
70,[WGI
TS,3.8.3;WGII 16.2.2.2]
25
,
0.7mm/(Mitchell,2001)50
(),(
)1.6mm/[WGI 5.5.2]
5.8.2.1
7GCMSRES,
5.8
110
,,
,SRES
,
,
,[WGII
16.3.1]
5.8 ( %)
AOGCMSRES B1B2A2A1F1
[WGII 16.2]
20102039
20402069
-35.6 +55.1
-52.6 +38.3
-61.0 +6.2
-14.2 +13.7
-36.3 +34.2
-49.3 +28.9
-5.4 +6.0
-6.9 +12.4
-9.8 +14.7
-6.3 +9.1
-19.2 +21.3
-2.7 +25.8
-3. 9 + 3.4
-8.23 +6.7
-14.0 +14.6
20702099
10%(2050),
20%
[WGII 16.4.1]
,
,,
,
[WGII 16.4.1]
,
,
,
,,
,
,
,,,
;
;,
[WGII 16.4.1]
,(MRAE,2004),
,
;(GDE,2002)
(,1999)
(NEAB,2000)
,
,(
)
[WGII 16.4.2]
5.8.2.2
,
,
,
,
,
,,,
[WGII 16.4.6,16.4.7]
5.8.2.3
(WHO2003),ENSO
,(Rawlins,2005)
,
,
(Singh,2001)
[WGII 8.2,8.4],(Singh
,2001),
[WGII 16.4.5]
5.8.2.4
,
,,,
,(2000)
,SRES A2B2,2050,,
,2300-5200
(2002GDP2%-3%),
()800
-1600(2002GDP
17%-18%),50%
,
[WGII 16.4.3]
5.8.2.5
Burke(2002)BurkeMaidens(2004),
50%45%
-(Graham,2006),
,
[WGII 16.4.4]
,
,,
,,
80%,
(Gardner,2003)
[WGII 16.4.4]
5.8.3
(Kerr,2005),
[WGII 16.6]
,
5.92100
,
[WGII 16.5]
,
,
,
,
[WGII 16.7.1]
(Nurse
,2001)
GDP,
;
,
[WGII 16.7]
,
,(
111
5.9: [WGII16.1]
*
1. SRES A1B2
ACIA(2005)
2.
I/II
/ 2C -
Fosaa(2004)
II
3.
Smith (2002)
4. SRES A1FIB1
Gritti(2006)
(GLM/
STATISTICA)
Sanz(2003)
5.
-
6.
(CLIMEX)
Kriticos(2005)
7.
205010%
20%
SRES A2B2
(2000)
8. 15 2100
0.88 m
Gilman(2006)
50%15
12%
0.5
38%(24%SD)
10.
112
Uyarra(2005)
)Sutherland,2005),
,
[WGII16.5]
IPCC
[WGII 16.7]
(,)
;
,;
,
,;
,
,
,
,
,2100,
[WGII 16.5]
113
6.1
(GHG)
IPCC()
IPCC
(6.1)
6.1
6.2
6.2.1
(CCS)(6.1 (1)
)
(CO2)(CCS)CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
[CCSSPM, 5.ES]
6.2.2
(2)
[LULUCF 4.5.1]
[LULUCF 4.5.1]
GHG
2050100EJ/
400 EJ/(Hoogwijk, 2004; Hoogwijk, 2005
; Sims, 2006)Smeets(2007)
800 EJ/
/
(Smeets2007)
[WG III 8.4.4.2]
(Berndes
Brjesson2002Jackson2005)
(MachadoSilva2001Freibauer2004)
[WG III 8.8]
()
(WestMarland,2003;
Balmford 2005; Mooney2005)
(HustonMarland,2003Green
2005)[WG III 8.8]
117
6.1: ()[+] []
[?]6.2
CCS(1) [?]
(12) [-]
(3)
[-/?]
(7) [+/-]
()
(8)
[+/-]
()(10) [+]
(12)
[+/-]
(10) [+/-]
(11)
[+]
(12) [+]
CCS(1) [?]
(2) [+/-]
(5) [-]
(13) [-]
()
(9)
[+/-]
(3)
[+]
(4) [+/-]
(13)
[-]
(5) [-]
s(6)
[+/-]
(7)
[+/-]
()
(8)
[-]
(2) [+/-]
(4)
[+/-]
()
(9)
[+]
(4)
[+/-]
(7)
[+/-]
(5) [-]
//
(7)
[+/-]
(10) [-]
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)
(12)
(13)
118
(CCS)(3,000)
/
()
()
()()()
()
()
(BerndesBrjesson,2002; Berndes
,2004;BrjessonBerndes,2006)[WGIII 8.8]
[LULUCF 4.21]
6.2.3
(3)
2030432
TWh/ [WG III 4.4.4]
6.2.4
(4)
()
()
()
(
)
75%
[WG
III 4.3.3.1]
(<10MW)(<1MW)
[WG III
4.3.3.1]
6.2.5
(5)
[WGIII
4.3.3.4]
(Bromley
Currie2003)()
(6)
(7)
IPCCLULUCF6
(
)
(6.2.10
)IPCC
119
[WGIII 8.4.1.3]
[LULUCF 4.10]
()
(Cole1993)
(Cole1993Isensee
Sadeghi1996)
[WG III
TAR 4.4.2]
(Lal1999
Bationo 2000 Resck 2000 Swarup
2000)
(
[LULUCF
4.1]
[WGIII 8.12]
( )
GHG
(Dalal
2003Paustian2004Oenema2005
Olesen2006)[WG III 8.8]
()
[LULUCF 4.5.1 ]
[WG III 8.12]
120
6.2.8
()(8)
GHG
()
(Unkovich2003Dias de Oliveira
2005)
[WG III 8.12]
6.2.9
()(9)
(CTIC1998)
()
[LULUCF
4.3 ]
[LULUCF 4.4.2.4 ]/
[WG III 8.12]
6.2.10 (10)
()
(Calder1990)
[LULUCF
2.5.1.1.4]
(Hibbert1967Schulze1982)
(Hibbert1967SwankDouglass1974)
Vincent(1995)
(JonesGrant1996)
[LULUCF 2.5.1.1.4]
(MorrisThomson, 1983)
()
(Schofield1992) [LULUCF 2.5.1.1.4]
()
(Greenwood 1985)
(Fukushima1987;
Kobayashi1987)
(Le
MaitreVersfel1997)
(Jackson
2005)
[WG III
TAR 4.4.1]
[LULUCF 4.7.2.4]
6.2.11 (11)
()
(ChomitzKumari1996)[WGIIITAR
4.4.1]
(Myers1997)
(ARD)
ARD
[LULUCF 3.6.2]
6.2.12 (12)
(
)GHG
(
)()
[WG III10.7]
GHG
121
6.2.13 (13)
(Williams2006)
()
()
)75%(NEB2006)
75%
[WG III 4.3.1.4]
6.3
GHG
GHG
( 6.2)
6.3.1
(1)
75%
(
)
()
[WG III
4.3.3.1]
122
(
)(
2000)
UNFCCC
(CDM)
[WG III 4.3.3.1]
6.3.2 (2)
18%(
2005ab)(
)
(Follett2001
Lal2004)
(Schlesinger1999
;Mosier 2005 )
(Liebig 2005 )
[WGIII8.4.1.1.d]
(Yan 2003)[WG III 8.4.1.1.e]
6.3.3
(3)
()()
(Cerri2004
)
(Madari2005)
(WestPost2002; Alvarez2005Gregorich
2005Ogle2005)
N 2O
(Cassman2003Smith
Conen2004Helgason2005Li2005
)N 2O
N 2O
(Marland2001
)
(Marland2003Koga2006)
(
Cerri2004)
6.2: [-]()
[+]6.3
(7) [+]
(1) [+/-]
(2) [-]
(7) [+]
(6) [-]
(1) [-]
(1) [+/-]
(2) [+/-]
(3) [+]
(4)
[+/-]
(5)
[+/-]
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
()
(GHG)(
)
GHG
(4)
(
)
N2O(Monteny2006)
N 2O(Reay2003
)[WG III 8.4.1.1.d]
6.3.5 (5)
N2O
[WG III 10.3.1]
19902020
50%
N2O
1990202025%
2012
[WG III 10.3.1]
N2O
1990N2O
2020[WG
III 10.3.3]
(3-5)
()
123
GHG
[WG III 10.6.2]
(6)
()
[WG II 3.3.2]
6.3.7 (7)
(6.2.5)
6.4
(Dang2003)
124
)
(
)
[WGII
18.8, 18.4.3]
(
)(Christensen
2004 VanRheenen 2004 ) [WGII
18.4.3]
(Boutkan
Stikker2004)
[WGII
18.4.3]
(
)
(
)
(
)()
[WGII
3.4]
()[WGII 3.4,
3.5]
[WGII
TS, 3.3.1, 3.4]
()
[WGII 3.4.3]
)
[WGII TS.5, 3.4, 3.7]
[WGII3.4.2]
[WGII 3.5.1]
[WGII
3.2, 3.4.4, 3.4.5]
[WGII3.4,3.5]
[WGII
3.3.2,3.5]
[WGII
3.5.1]
[WGII
TS, 3.4, 3.5, 3.6]
(
)
[WGII 3.6]
7.1
[WGII 3.4.1]
(
)
20%
2180
2100(
)(
)
[WGII TS]
127
[WGII 4.4.8]
[WGII 4.4.8]
[WGII 4.ES]
[WGII SPM]
[WGII 5.4]
[WGII
5.5.2]
/
[WGII 5.5.1]
[WGII 8.6.4]
[WGII 5.7]
[WGII 7.4.3.2]
(
)
[WGII 7.6]
[WGII
14.5.3, 14.3]
[WGII 8.2.5]
[WGII 8.2.2]
[WGII 3.8]
7.2
128
(-
)
() [WGII
6.3, 6.4]
[WGII9.4.1][WGII
9.6][WGII9.2.2,9.4.3])
[WGII 9.4]
2180
5%-8(6-9
) [WGII 9.4.4]
2150
()
()(
)[WGII 9.4.1, 9.4.2, 9.4.8]
25%-40%
30%
[WGII 9.4.5, 3.4.7, 5.4.5]
()
[WGII 9.2.2, TS.6]
2025
1,820
m31,000 m3[WGII 10.4.2.3]
[WGII 10.4.2]
1C10%[WGII 10.4.1]
(2007)[WGII
3.4.1, 10.4.2.1]
CO22180
[WGII 12.3.1]
2170
36%
IS92a80%[WGII
12.4.1, T12.2]
(
0.4)19%
217034%-36%[WGII 12.4.1]
218017
16004400(HadCM3
)[WGII 12.4.1]
21 70
6%
20%-50%
15%-30%[WGII 12.4.8]
2050
30%-70%
[WGII 12.4.3]
[WGII
13.4.3]
SRES A22020
37006600(
5600) [WGII 13.4.3]
[WGII 13.4.3]
(
20300-45%
2050
10%-25%)[WGII 11.4.1]
2030
2030
[WGII
11.4]
129
[WGII 16.4.1]
10%(2050
)
20%
[WGII 16.4.1]
(
)
[WGII 16.4.1]
21
[WGII 14.4.1]
[WGII14.2.1, 14.2]
5%-20%
[WGII 14.4.4]
[WGII 14.2.6,
14.4.6]
2050
20%-35% SRES
2050
15%-25%50%
[WGII 15.3.4]
[WGII 15.4.1]
[WGII 15.4.1]
[WGII 15.4.6]
130
[WGII
16.ES]
SRES
7.3
()
CO2
7.4
( 7.1)
[WGII 3.7] .
1:
2:
3:
4:
6:
7:
131
(
)
8.1
[WGI 3.3.2.5]
(
)
[WGI 3.3.4]
[WGI 3.3.4]
CO 2
[WGI 7.2]
8.2
8.2.1
135
()
8.2.2
(
)
(
)
(
)
(
136
8.3
(
)
[WGII 3.8]
[CCS, TS, 10
]
/ (
-
[WGIII
4.3.3.3]
GHG
(
CO2
N2O
)[WGIII 8.4.1.1]
[WGIII 9.7.3]
137
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HadCM2
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Johns, 1997
HadCM3
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Gordon, 2000
Pope, 2000
RegCM2
~50 km
Giorgi, 1993a, b
ECHAM4
(with OPYC3)
~2.8 x 2.8
Roeckner, 1996
:
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165
2:
()
()()
IPCC
IPCC
A.
0.0110 ()
(50)
IPCC
(IPCC2000)
(UNFCCC)
(1998)1990
4.2(a)4.2(b)
2000
167
2:
1990
(UNFCCC)
1990
4.2 (g)
B
B
(1998
)
()
[WGI 3.4]
(
)
250
(AMO)
(6575)
186018801930
1960190519251970
19900.4C
(
78.1%)(20.9%)
(
168
0.93%)
(0.035%)
(
1%)
(AMS, 2000)10
B.
()
2:
(
)
()
()
()
/
/
C.
C3
3
C4
4
()
()
(CO2)
()
1
(CO2)
(CO2)
(CO2)
()
(CDM)
12
(1)
(2)
/
B
()
(WMO)30
/(
169
2:
(UNFCCC)
UNFCCC
/
(AOGCMs)
(WGI
)
//
170
()
()
()
CO2
CO2-
(CO2)
()
()
()
()
2:
()
(
)
D.
IPCC
(IPCC2000)
(DHF)
(DSS)
100
(1)
(2)
(3)
(10100)
/
/
/
(Heim2002)
1()
(DGVM)
()
171
2:
E.
-(ENSO)
(
)2-7 -
-(ENSO)
ENSO
(
)
(
)
SRES
()(
)
()()
172
(
)()
()
()
()
()
()
()(
)
2:
()
10%
90%
()
F.
(UNFCCC)
G.
( )
()()(
)
(
/)
IPCC
(IPCC, 2000)
()
173
2:
(
)
-19
+14
(GHG)
(H2O)(CO2)(N2O)(CH4)
(O3)
CO2N2OCH4
(SF6)(HFC)(PFC)
(GDP)
(GDP)
(GNP)
(GNP)
H.
174
()
11600.
(AMS, 2000)
I.
(
/)
2:
(
)
()
(IWRM)
IWRM1992
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(IPO)
(PDO).
[3.4]
100
1
IS92
K.
(UNFCCC)
1997UNFCCC
UNFCCC
B(
)(
)20082012
19905%
175
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2005216
L.
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(
)
/
IPCC
(IPCC2000)
M.
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300200
)
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()
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()
()
(MOC)
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1.1
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14001900
176
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()
N.
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()
(NPP)
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177
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pH
pH()
pH7pH
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CO2
178
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1750
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2:
IPCC
(IPCC2000)
()
S.
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SRES
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179
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SRES
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NakienoviSwart(2000)
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10
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T.
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1992591992
150
(OECD
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1990
19943
181
2:
()
V.
()
(
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W.
(
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182
3:
3.1
ACIA
AIDS
AMO
AOGCM
AR4
ARD
CCS
CDM
CH4
CO2
CRU
DJF
ECLAC
ENSO
EROS
ES
EU
FAO
FAQ
FAR
GCM
GDP
GHCN
GHG
GLOF
GNP
GPCC
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HABs
HIV
IIASA
IPCC
IPO
IUCN
JJA
LIA
LULUCF
MARA/ARMA
MDG
MOC
N2O
NAM
(IPCC)
(IPCC)
()
NAO
NASA
NGO
NH
OECD
PCBs
PDO
PDR
PDSI
pH
PNA
ppm
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PSA
SAM
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UN
UNDP
UNFCCC
UNICEF
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WCP
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WGII
WGIII
WHO
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3.2
(IPCC)
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(IPCC)
IPCC
IPCC
IPCC
183
3:
3.2
SI ()
m
kg
s
K
J
10-1
10-2
10-3
10-6
10-9
10-12
10-15
10-18
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1015
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ppm
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watt
1 = 1 / = 1 /3
yr
184
4:
Bates, Bryson
Kitoh, Akio
Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.
Kovats, Sari
Arnell, Nigel
Burkett, Virginia
Dll, Petra
Gwary, Daniel
Hanson, Clair
Kumar, Pushpam
Martino, Daniel
/
Medany, Mahmoud
Miller, Kathleen
Oki, Taikan
Heij, BertJan
Osman, Balgis
Palutikof, Jean
Kaser, Georg
Prowse, Terry
185
Pulwarty, Roger
NOAA/CIRES/
/
Dai, Aiguo
Risnen, Jouni
Milly, Christopher
Renwick, James
Mortsch, Linda
//
Nurse, Leonard
Wood, Richard
Payne, Richard
Pinkswar, Iwona
Arblaster, Julie
Wilbanks, Tom
Betts, Richard
186
5:
Andressen, Rigoberto
Elgizouli, Ismail
Asanuma, Jun
Fobil, Julius
Bandyopadhyay, Jayanta
Folland, Chris
Bayoumi, Attia
Gallart, Francesc
Bergstrm, Sten
Gerten, Dieter
Bernstein, Leonard
Gillett, Nathan
Bidegain, Mario
Ginzo, Hctor
Bojariu, Roxana
de Lo, Rob
Grabs, Wolfgang
Hatfield, Jerry
Jacob, Daniela
187
5:
Jacobs, Katharine
Jeffrey, Paul
Mares, Constantin
Jouzel, Jean
-
Mares, Ileana
Byung-bok, Jin
Mariotti, Annarita
Kadaja, Jri
Morgenschweis, Gerd
Kaser, Georg
Mller, Lars
()
Kimball, Bruce
Momodou, Njie
Knutson, Thomas
Noda, Akira
Komen, Gerbrand
Parry, Martin
IPCC
Kotwicki, Vincent
Ragab, Ragab
Lal, Murari
Lapin, Milan
Robock, Alan
Leon, Alejandro
Roy, Rene
188
5:
Savard, Martine M.
Trenberth, Kevin
Schipper, Lisa
en, Zekai
Wojciech, Majewski
Sherwood, Steve
Wratt, David
Shim, Kyo-moon
Sorooshian, Soroosh
Szolgay, Jan
Tabet-Aoul, Mahi
(CRASC)
Wurzler, Sabine
-
189
6:
3.2Petra Dll
3.3Lehner, B2005
, 75, 273-299,
4.1(a)Fischer, G.200221
RR-02-02(IIASA)IIASA
5.1OReilly, C.M.2003
424, 766-7682003
5.3Hemp, A., 2005
11, 1013-1023
5.4Arnell,N.W.,2006b,167-175H.J.
Schellnhuber, W. Cramer, N. Nakienovi, T. WigleyG. Yohe, Eds.,
191
A
, 4, 48-51
, 48, 63
, 50
, 49
, 124
, 48-49, 63
, 48, 49
, 130
, 49
, 125-131
, 50, 85
, 63-67
, 88-90
, 50, 92-93, 92
, 75
, 50, 95-96
, 69
, 50, 100-102, 101
, 50, 104-106
, 50, 109
, 74
, 50, 110, 111-113
, 71-73
, 15
, 4, 59, 118, 120-121
, 79-85, 128-129
, 50, 85
, 79-81, 79-80
, 60
, 82
, 36, 129
, 64
, 16, 25, 59
, 81-85, 128-129
, 21-22, 35
, 66, 128
, 59-67, 128
, 63-67
, 65, 65
, 123, 123
118,120, 122-123
(), 118, 120
, 61-62
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, 120
, 4, 10, 61, 62, 128
, 118, 120
, 59
, 60, 61
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, 123
, 10
, 81, 83, 84
, 87, 88
, 91
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, 103-104
, 111
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, 58
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, 66
193
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, 62, 127, 128
, 3, 127
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, 86, 86, 129 , 36
, 85-87
, 16, 25
, 87-88, 129
, 20, 29, 45-46
, 43, 129
15, 16-17
, 90-94, 129
, 50, 92-93, 92
, 38, 66
36
, 129
, 90-91, 90
, 16, 59
, 91-92, 129
B
, 4, 117-119, 118
, 55, 128
, 81, 84-85, 84
, 87
, 91-92
, 95
, 97-98, 100
, 104
, 108
, 111
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, 24
, 118, 119
, 65, 65
, 74, 118, 119
C
, 68
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(GHG)
(CCS), 117-123, 118
194
, 58
, 24
, 25, 110
, 35, 99
, 15
, 15, 23-24
()
, 15-23
, 24-31
, , 22-23, 31
, 13-31
, 4, 130
, 15, 16-17
, 47, 125-131
, 35-47, 47, 125-131
()
, 5-11
, 7-11
,
24-31, 38-43
, 33-51
, 3, 127
, 8-9, 35-38
, 38-48
, 77-113, 128-130
, 59-74, 127-128
, 55-58
, 1-4
, 3, 24-31, 48, 179
, 26-27, 48
, 135
, 24-31, 135-136
/, 9-10, 10, 24
, 3, 19-20, 19-20, 35
, 27-28
, 68, 71
, 17-18
, 27, 31, 41, 103
D
, 9-10, 136
, 4, 122, 123, 130
, 10
, 23, 59, 61
/, 118, 121
, 57, 99, 128
, 10, 46, 72, 130
, 123, 124
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100, 42
, 68
, 37, 38, 39
, 26-27, 41-42, 42-43, 127
.
, 68
E
, 9
, 74-75
, 55-58, 127-128
, 83, 84
- (ENSO), 22, 31, 85
, 80, 82
, 88
, 91
, 95
, 74
, 96, 98
, 118
, 103
, 111
, 123
ENSO. -
, 43, 57
, 93-96, 129
, 50, 95-96
, 38, 94-95, 94
, 46
2003, 38
, 58
, 93, 93
, 25, 42, 59
, 29, 42, 93-95, 129
, 21-22, 29, 35, 45, 129
, 129
, 23
, 20-21
, 25-26, 27, 29
, 55, 56-57, 84, 91, 98, 128
F
, 23-24
,24
,23
, 24
, 62-63, 66, 130
, 64
, 63
, 46, 75
, 94-95, 94
100, 41
, 68
, 73-74
, 75
, 37-38, 37
, 26, 41-42, 41, 127
/, 3, 59, 60-63, 65-66
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, 64-65
, 119
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, 9, 35-36
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of, 3, 43
H
.
(2003), 38
, 15, 38, 60
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, 66, 69
, 67-69
, 69
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, 91
, 95
, 96-97, 98-100
, 103
, 69
, 69, 128
, 111
, 66
, 73-74, 128
, 59
/
, 4
, 15, 23-24
, 3-4, 25-31, 38-48
, 24-25
196
, 15
, 35-36
, 38-47
, 55-58
, 46, 118, 119, 136
, 82
, 46, 129
, 4, 122, 123, 130
, 74
, 47
I
, 3, 19-20, 19-20
, 27-28, 130
, 56
, 36
, 37
, 36-37
, 43, 55-56, 129
, 36, 56
, 23-24
, 59-60
, 64
, 117
, 118, 119-120
, 96-102, 129-130
, 50, 100-102, 101
, 35, 97, 99, 129-130
, 96-98, 97
, 101
, 16, 97-98
, 98-100, 129-130
, 21-22, 30, 35
, 96, 98, 100, 129
, 97
,33-51
, 48-51
, 38-48
, 35-38
, 62, 64
M
, 80-81, 100
, 63
, 68
(MOC), 24
, 122
/, 123 , 24, 130
, , 131
, 115-124, 130
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/, 118, 121
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, 117-119, 118
, 118, 119
118, 119
(CCS), 117,118
, 123, 123
, 118, 120
, 123, 124
, 136-137
, 118, 119, 123, 124
(GHG) , 122-124, 123
, 122, 123
, 118, 119
, 122, 123
, 118, 119-120
, 130
, 117
, 122-123, 123
, 67
, 118, 122
/, 118, 121, 123-124, 123
, 122-124, 123, 130
, 25
, 58
N
Nasca, 101
, 79, 84
, 10, 120
, 8, 10, 43-44
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, 50, 104-106
, 104, 105-106
, 38, 66
, , 36
, 102
, 16
, 102-104, 102, 130
, 21-22
(NAO), 15, 22, 31
O
, 15-23
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, 3-4
, , 24
, 15, 24
, 118, 122
P
, 64
;
, 60
197
, 106-109, 130
, 50, 109
, 107, 108
, 108-109, 130
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, 122-124, 123
, 73, 74
, 4, 8, 9
, 45, 45
, 15-19, 25-27
, 16-17
, 26-27, 28
, 3, 16-17, 18, 41, 41
, , 61
,, 70-71, 128
, 25-26
, 25
, 3, 15-19, 16-18
, 3, 25-27, 26-27, 41-42, 41, 127
, 3, 15
, 9, 24-31
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, 9-10, 38-48
R
, 62
, 4, 59, 118, 120-121
, 77-113, 128-129
, 122-123, 123
, 36, 55-56
, 56, 57-58
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, 118
, 3, 21-22, 35-36, 37
.. 71
, 3, 27, 29-30, 30, 61, 61, 127
198
, 57
, 3, 43, 71
, 58
, 9-10, 10
, 68-69, 97
, 20, 28-29
, 20
, 3, 28-29, 43
, 10, 43
.
, 73-74, 128
, 109-113, 130
, 50, 110, 111-113
, 109-111, 112, 130
, 130
, 23-24
, 3, 19, 19-20, 35
, 27-28
, 45-47, 74-75
, 43, 57
, 23
, 21
, 27, 29
.
SRES, 9, 10, 24
, 9, 10
, 125-131
, 47, 130
, 131
, 66
T
118, 122
, 22
, 15
, 24, 31
, 57
, 35, 74-75
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,
Tsho Rolpa, 89
U
, 11, 11
V
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, 118, 121, 123
, 10
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, 10
, 118
, 69, 70
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, 36, 37
, 48-51, 49-50
, 51
, 63-67
, 4
, 4, 43-44, 127
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, 4, 43-44, 47
(IWRM), 44, 51, 124
, , 122-124,
123
, 51
71-72
, 45, 67-68, 72
, 70-71
, 10
, 118
, 9, 36-37
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, 71
, 48-51, 49-50
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, 23-24
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, 7
, 33-51
()
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, 35-38
, 38-47
, 3-4
, 47-48
, 80, 81-82
, 85-88
, 91
, 93-95
, 96, 98
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, 110, 110
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3
, 83, 129 , 8
, 129
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, 130
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69-73
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199
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, 118
, 36, 37
, 127
200
, 8-9
, 43-44, 62
, 16, 18-19
, 25-26, 29
, 66-67
, 56-57, 119
(IPCC)
IPCC-
IPCC
/
IPCC
(IPCC)
IPCC
-
IPCC