Initiating coverage on JAIPRAKASH ASSOCIATES LTD.

Current Price ` 118.7/Potential upside 34%

Target price ` 162/Time frame 18 months

Industry

Diversified
Jaiprakash Associates Ltd. JAL is the engineering and construction arm of the Jaypee group focused on development of river valley and hydro electric projects on turnkey basis for more than four decades. The company is currently executing various projects in hydropower, irrigation & other infrastructure fields. JAL is known for its execution of projects. Currently JALs Order book stands at ` 10600/- Crs. JAL is also constructing a BOT road project Yamuna Expressway. Valuation: We initiate the report on Jaiprakash Associates Ltd. (JAL) with a BUY on it. We have evaluated the company on SOTP basis. We expect a potential upside of 34% to a price of ` 162/-. The current market price of the company is ` 118.7/-. We expect the company to do well as many of its projects are on the verge of completion within in the time frame of next two years. Key Financials Year ended March Net Sales EBITDA PAT EBITDA Margins (%) PBT Margins (%) PAT Margins (%) EPS
` Crs

Mr. Saurabh Naliwal Jaiprakash Associates Ltd.

(O) 91-120-4609000

Stock Metrics Bloomberg code Reuters code BSE Group BSE Code NSE Code Face value ISIN No.

JPA IN JAIA.BO A 532532 JPASSOCIAT ` 2/INE455F01025 25210 180/109.70 17992 5409 2697734

Market Data Market Cap. (Rs.Cr.) 52week High/Low SENSEX Nifty Average Volume

Shareholding Pattern

12%

7% 45%

36%

FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E 5,765 10,316 12,748 14,200 2143 2891 4319 4080 898 1920 2572 2234 37.17 21.71 15.57 7.58 28.03 25.14 18.61 9.04 33.88 26.84 20.17 12.10 28.73 22.73 15.73 10.51

Promoters

Institutional Investors

Public

Others

Research Analyst: Divya Kant divya.kant@inventuregrowth.com 022-40751515 Ext: 582 Denil Savla denil.savla@inventuregrowth.com 022-40751515 Ext: 581 Date: 30th July, 2010

Table of Contents

Page No.

Investment Rationales Power Business...... Hospitality sector... Risk and Concerns Valuation: Cement Valuation :Construction Valuation: Power . Valuation: Real estate & YEP Valuation: Hotel & Other business Price Derivation Profit & Loss statement Balance sheet statement Cash flow statement Ratio analysis Quarterly statement. Peer set analysis.

3-5 6 7 9 10 11 12 14 15 16 18 19 20 20 21 22

Investment Rationales

Cement sales to rise on the back of strong demand..

Cement sector to boost growth Revenues from cement sector are expected to gain from strong demand in the northern and central markets. However, its ability to manage operational costs, especially in the construction division, would lead increase in margins. For the quarter ended in June, 2010 the shipment have reported 65% rise to 1.33MT. As company is eager to complete its ambitious BOT road project of Yamuna Expressway, the internal demand is expected to increase. JAL to venture into fertilizers biz Jaypee group is looking to expand in fertilizer business in joint venture with Duncan industries. The fertilizer factory sits on a 250-acre plot on outskirts of Kanpur. The revival and rehabilitation of the said unit will be done through a joint venture (JV) company of Jaypee Fertilizers & Industries and ISG Traders, a part of Duncan Industries Ltd. The unit has a capacity to generate `1700 crore - `1800 crore in annual revenue, and deliver profit before tax of around ` 175 crore. The deal, however, needs the approval of the Board for Industrial and Financial Reconstruction. Managing operational cost to increase margins Year ended March 2010; sales and other operating income jumped ~74% to ` 10,316 crore while net profit surged by ~ 90 per cent to ` 1,920 crore. The company has benefited from its strong market position in UP and Madhya Pradesh. Construction business accounted for ~52% of total revenue in the FY10 this is a clear sign of execution in projects such as the Yamuna Expressway. However there has been pressure on operational cost. Increase in higher input cost can pressurize the margins going further. But on comparing to industry margins/growth JP Associates still remains to be attractive.

JAL to buy Duncans Kanpur fertilizer plant with 50% stake in JV with ISG Traders a part of Duncan group..

Construction sector boosts the margins..

JAL is aggressively aiming completion of its projects .

at

Aggressive Expansion The company is in expansion mode. Company is aiming at the capacity of 33 MTPA by FY13. Recently company has setup plant in Gujarat and a plant is under construction in Assam. The implementation of on going group projects is progressing satisfactorily and on completion Jaypee group will be the 3rd largest cement producing group. Company plans to invest around ` 10,000 crore in the next three years. Apart from this company is also venturing into thermal power projects and its first thermal plant BINA-I, is on the verge of completion. Company is also expecting its Hydro power plant Karcham Wangtoo to be completed in FY12E. JAL is also keen on completion of its BOT road project Yamuna expressway.

Jaypee Infratech IPO: Yamuna Expressway

Jaypee Infratech IPO Jaypee group came with an IPO of Jaypee Infratech. Company and shifted its most ambitious project to this i.e. Yamuna Expressway a 165Km six lane expressway connecting Noida to Agra along river Yamuna. On this BOT project company will have a right to earn toll revenue from traffic for 36 years. Further, company will develop 5 townships in 6175 acres of land that will be acquired by YEA (Yamuna Expressway Authority) and this land will be leased for a period of 90 years. The development plan is for residential (50%), commercial (33%), and Institutional (17%) purposes. The development of expressway along with development of real estate projects will benefit each other. Earnings from real estate will subsidize the development of expressway and give additional traffic during and after full development. Better infrastructure including connectivity will increase the marketability and price for realty projects along the expressway.

Map of Expressway Source: YEA

The cost for the project is estimated to be ~` 9739.2 Crore and as on 28th Feb.2010 company has already deployed `.6250 Crore. The funding of the project has been done in the following pattern:
Funding Pattern IPO DEBT Contributions from Promoters Contribution from Real Estate Developments Total Rs. Cr 1500 6000 1250 989.29 9739.29

The project is one of its kinds. JAL will develop expressway along with real estate.

JAL has rights for 90 years to lease out land in 5 new townships to be developed along side Yamuna Expressway

The five townships will be of 1235 acre each. JIL had taken possession of approximately 3,897 acres end March 2010 and remaining is being done through YEA. The land has been acquired at a low cost from YEA as compared to its real estate competitors making the profit margins look good in this segment going forward. The five locations are: One in Noida Two in Gautam Budh Nagar One in Aligarh One in Agra

Three locations are profitably planned in the high yield NCR region. 5 townships will mean ~400 million sq ft. And price for the same to be ~` 2500 Sq. Ft. JAL has been developing luxurious township in Noida and Greater Noida spread over 450 acres. Jaypee Greens is a real estate arm of JAL integrating homes with a golf course, landscaped emerald spaces, resort living and commercial developments. So far JAL has sold ~3.18 million sq ft. at an average realization of around ` 5412 per Sq Ft. Total amounting to ` 1721 Crore for which company has collected ~` 1192 Crore. The sales volume is expected to increase to 1.5 million Sq Ft. in FY12 from ~0.5 in FY 10.

Jaypee greens to set up luxurious township in Noida

The power sector JAL has been an established player in this segment. It is the only integrated solution provider for hydropower projects in the country with the track record of strong project implementation in different capacities and participation in project that have added over 8840 MW of hydroelectricity to the national grid between 2002- 2009. Companys ambitious; a 1000MW hydro power project at KARCHAM WANGTOO (HP) is scheduled to be completed in of FY12E. Company claims that after completion of this project it would be able to alter the scale of

operations and cash flows of JPVL (Jaiprakash power venture Ltd.) substantially. Company claims that it will be able to sell almost 20% of its power generated on a merchant basis. Bina Thermal Plant (5x250) is expected to be completed in two phases of which (2x250) to be commercialized towards the end of FY11 and second phase to be completed in Q4FY14. A 1,320MW thermal project, located at Nigire (MP), is also housed in the company. Few projects require financial closure or various licenses, whereas, few are underway but company hopes to accomplish the projects on time.

Project wise breakup

Project
BASPA-II Vishnuprayag Karcham Wangtoo Bina Phase I Nigrie Bara Phase I( Unit 1) Kannur Bara Phase I (Unit 2&F66) Karchana Phase I Bina Phase II

Fuel
Hydro Hydro Hydro Thermal Thermal Thermal Thermal Theramal Thermal Thermal

Location
HP UK HP MP MP UP Kerla UP UP MP

Capacity(MW)
300 400 1000 500 1320 660 240 1320 1320 750

Status
Operational Operational FY11E FY11E FY13E FY13E FY13E FY14E FY14E FY14E

We expect strong pickup in hotel business mainly because of Common Wealth Games.

Hospitality Sector JAL owns four five star deluxe hotels in North India. The hotel business suffered post 26/11; along with that the percentage of tourists declined due to slowdown in economy. This divisions profitability was adversely impacted due to lower average room rates (ARRs). The condition is expected to improve in FY11 mainly because of economic revival and Common wealth games being held in New Delhi. The four Hotels are: Hotel Siddharth ( Delhi) Hotel Vasant Continental ( Delhi) Hotel Jaypee Palace ( Agra) Jaypee Residency Manor (Mussoorie) Company faces competition in this segment from other major players like ITC, Hotel Leela Ventures and others. The other major competition is from the unorganized market in this sector. Company is also planning a Spa- hotel in Noida. Other business ventures JAL has ventured into IT sector with JILIT (JIL Information Technology Ltd.). It specializes into various business segments such as:

JAL is into IT sector with JILIT

Software Development and Consultancy Networking and Communication Content Development Learning Solutions Multimedia Services

It operates the private network of VSATs in Northern India that connects the Groups various project sites, cement locations and Hydropower stations. This facilitates seamless connectivity for video conferencing of remote locations and data connectivity for the ERP solutions of the E&C, Cement and Hydropower divisions and Educational institutions.

JLIT aims at providing education solutions to schools in India and abroad. They intend to provide education with improved content. JAL is coming up with F1 racing Circuit JAL ventured into sports with JPSK Sports Pvt. Ltd. to set up F1 racing circuit which has been designed by well known German architect Herman Tike, who has earlier designed world-class racing circuits in Malaysia, Bahrain, China, Turkey, Indonesia, the UAE, South Africa, South Korea and the US. This racing circuit is being developed in outskirts of Delhi. Company also intends to establish Cricket stadium along with hockey arena and a sports training academy.
``

JAL is developing racing circuit with its JPSK Sports Pvt. Ltd

Segment Revenue Particular Construction Cement/Cement Products Hotel/Hospitality Wind Power Real Estate Other revenue Total revenue Less Inter segment Transfer Less other Income Net Revenue FY08 1,795 2,070 31 18 256 188 4,358 84.5 289 3,984 FY09 2,943 2,450 155 28 441 268 6,285 140.2 380 5,765

` Cr FY10 5,300 3,351 159 30 586 1472 10,897 206 375 10,316
C

FY11E 6,020 4,943 170 33 853 1385 13,404 256 400 12,748

FY12E 7,100 5,487 190 36 917 1290 15,020 310 510 14,200

Risk & Concerns JAL has high debt to equity ratio which is still a cause of concern. JAL has many projects underway funding the projects is still to be seen. Although economy has picked up after recession but any unexpected change in economic environment could adversely affect the business. Increased competition in engineering and construction may put pressure on business activities. JAL is heavily dependent on the EPC projects. Any delay arising from external factors could affect the divisions growth trajectory, going forward. Fluctuation in commodity prices could adversely impact the business. JAL is aggressive in capacity addition and has projects lined up which not only need huge funds but also faster execution skills. The ability to complete the projects on time and with the available resources is to be seen. Projects such as power are long gestation projects and are dependent on several factors such requisite licenses, approvals, permit, natural disasters, labor disputes and adverse weather conditions. The company may be unable to complete the projects in time. This, in turn, will escalate the cost of the projects.

JAL may face problems arising due to certain risk and concerns especially on the funding part of the projects

Valuation Cement JAL for last two years has been aggressively increasing the capacity and this trend is expected to be continued in future. JAL is ambitious and expects to achieve 33MTPA by the end FY13, but we expect the capacity to increase to 30MTPA.

JAL is aggressively increasing the capacity but managing the cost of operations is to be seen

Cement is an important commodity and is directly related to infrastructure sector. The demand and supply mismatch seen can be worrisome for the company. JALs cement realization has been range bound for the last two years and as company is intentionally increasing its capacity the realizations are expected to fall. But as the demand is expected to increase in north and central India we expect the realization to be effected marginally. We have valued JAL cement divisions EV/ Ton multiple at ~$110 (at a discount of ~25% to the leading player) and arrive at a value of `.39/-

We have valued JAL on EV/Ton basis; in line with other leading players

Valuation Capacity in FY12E EV/Tonne (USD) INR EV (`) Less: net Debt Equity Value Price per share

30 110 47 14200 6000 8200 39

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Construction Division JALs order book stands at~ ` 10600 Crore excluding Ganga Expressway which itself amounts for around ` 30000 crore. ~94% of the orders are in house. The execution of the projects has to be seen in future.
45%

Order Book
27%

5% 3% 20%

Yamuna Expressway Zirakpur Parwanoo Highway others

Karcham Wangtoo Baglihar

JALs construction division is expected to post revenue at CAGR of ~20% between FY09- FY12E. Along with this the construction margins are continuously maintained between 13-15% throughout and we expect margins to be maintained. The margins for JAL command better than other mid cap players. But, the execution and management of resources has to be kept under a check. We have valued this division on EV/ EBITDA basis, assigning a multiple of ~7 (discounted in line with other major industrial players). But as we expect revenues to grow, we expect the division to perform. We expect the division to contribute per share ` 44/Construction EV/EBITDA EV(`) Net equity value Price per Share 7 16280 9280 44

JAL has maintained its margins between 13-15% and it is expected in future.

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Power Division JAL owns 76.2% subsidiary named JPVL (Jaiprakash Power Ventures Ltd.) through which it is thriving hard to make it big. Currently JAL has a portfolio of 13470 MW. Out of this, 700MW is operational and another 1500MW is expected around FY12E. Along with this JPVL is diversifying into other fuel mix with its first thermal plant named BINA-I; which is expected to be completed in FY12E. Further there are many projects like Karcham Wangtoo, Nigrie, Bara-I and Bara-II and Karchana-I. These projects are expected to be completed till FY15. The other projects with JPVL that are under planning or at various stages of clearances sum up the total power portfolio at 13470MW.

Presence of JAL in power

Source: Company, IGSL Research

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Valuation of Power Sector Projects BASPA VISHNU PAYAG KARCHAM WANGTOO BINA -1 BINA -2 NIGRIE BARA-I BARA-II KARCHANA-I KARCHANA-II LOWER SIANG HIRONG KYUNSHI-II UMNGOT-i Transmission to Power Grid Total Contribution Per Share
Capacity(MW)

300 400 1000 500 750 1320 1980 1320 1320 660 2700 500 450 270 217Kms 13470

Project Equity JAL's JAL's Stake Cost Value Ownership Value 1545 76.30% 1210 1590 1720 76.30% 1476 1940 7150 86.50% 2643 3040 2753 76.30% 850 1120 4125 76.30% 186 250 8118 76.30% 1457 1920 11088 76.30% 1173 1530 7392 76.30% 1002 1310 7392 76.30% 701 920 3696 76.30% 954 1240 13500 67.90% 562 840 2500 67.90% 63 90 2250 56.50% 44 70 1350 56.50% 38 70 1000 75579
680 16610

58.00%

392 12749 60.0

Company all existing operational projects are placed with reputed vendors like Alstom, BHEL etc. so we expect the projects to achieve the rated output on sustainable basis. We have valued the project on FCFE basis. We evaluate the price at `60/- per share.

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Real Estate Division Jaypee Greens- Luxurious Township This luxurious township is expected to come up with average realizations of ` 5400 sq/ft. and construction cost of ` 2600 Sq/ft. We have modeled the realizations and cost escalations of ~5% and we expect the project to get accomplished by FY14. Yamuna Expressway Land Parcels for Real Estate development

JAL is coming up with luxurious township in Greater Noida with its eminent project Jaypee Greens

The project is spread over 415 million sq ft of which company is eager to develop around 80 million sq ft, specially located in the area of NCR and for this company has reported order booking also. Going forward we have hiked the realizations and cost escalations of ~5% Per annum. So far company has been able to launch ~20 million sq ft. at an average realization price of ~` 3500 sq ft. It is expected as the project gets into motion the real estate arm of Yamuna expressway will be one of the profitable business for JAL.

JAL has 5 land parcels of 1250 ha along side Yamuna Expressway

We expect the real estate arm to contribute ` 11 per share. We have evaluated the sector on EV/EBITDA basis.

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Yamuna Expressway- Road project The Yamuna Expressway road arm has been evaluated keeping in mind the traffic growth of ~10% and toll to grow on WPI basis. Based on these assumptions we have arrived at negative a negative NPV for the project and it is contributing (`.6/-) per share. The other major project with JAL is Ganga Expressway. This project is pegged at a cost of around ` 30000 Crores. Hotel Business The hotel business is expected to perform better in the current financial year due to commonwealth games and tourists traveling to India. Company has its main hotel located in New Delhi and Agra. Company is also coming up with a hotel in Jaypee Greens, Greater Noida with six senses of Thailand. JAL has capacity of close to 750 rooms and with new hotel soon to be operational we expect the hotel business to generate per share value (net of debt) to ` 3 per share. Other Business Other business implies companys operational 49 MW wind power and the upcoming Ganga expressway spread over 1047 km. from New Delhi to Balia.

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We recommend a BUY for Jaiprakash Associates Ltd. at the current levels of ` 118.70/- with a 34% potential upside target of ` 162/-. The conglomerate has ventured into businesses like construction, cement manufacturing, hotel, real estate and power manufacturing. Considering its diversified portfolio, we have evaluated company on SOTP basis.

Total valuation Cement Construction Hotel Real Estate Power Yamuna Expressway Others Total

` 39 44 3 11 60 -6 11 162

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Margins 40.00 30.00

%

Despite the pressure on the operations JAL is expected to maintain its margins at the current levels.

20.00 10.00 0.00 FY09 EBITDA % FY10 PBDT % FY11E PBT % FY12E PAT %

Source: IGSL Research

Technically, JAL is constantly getting support at the current levels

3 Months Bollinger band chart Source: Yahoo, IGSL Chart

Index Comparison

JAL has underperformed as compared with the SENSEX. We expect the stock to pick up in near future..

Source: IGSL Research

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Financials Standalone basis- Profit and Loss Statement (Standalone) Particulars Net sales less: Expenditure EBITDA(excl OI) Add: Other Inc EBITDA Income from others Less: Int PBDT Less: Dep PBT Less: Taxes PAT No.of shares EPS Margins (Standalone) Particulars EBITDA % PBDT % PBT % PAT % FY08 35.81 26.25 21.15 15.28 FY09 37.17 27.07 21.71 15.57 FY10 28.03 29.56 25.14 18.61 FY11E 33.88 30.64 26.84 20.17 FY12E 28.7 26.7 22.7 15.7 FY08 3,984.00 2846.07 1137.93 288.87 1426.8 380.92 1046 203.3 842.58 233.68 609 117.15 5.20 FY09 5,764.80 4010.01 1754.79 388.11 2142.9 582.33 1561 308.97 1251.6 353.97 898 118.38 7.58 FY10 10,316.00 7463.99 2852.01 39.39 2891.4 1214.02 1055.79 3050 456.06 2593.57 673.31 1920 212.46 9.04 FY11E 12,748 8541 4206.89 112 4318.89 762.52 1175 3906 485.32 3421.09 849.42 2572 212.46 12.10
` Crs

FY12E 14,200.00 10270 3930 150 4080 966 1250 3796 568 3228 994 2234 212.46 10.51

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Balance sheet Statement (Standalone) Balance Sheet Statement Share Capital Reserves and surplus Shareholders Fund Secured Loans Unsecured Loans Total Debt Total Liabilities Application of Funds Gross Block Less: Depreciation Net block Add: Capital work in progress Investments Total current Assets Total Current Liability Net current Assets Total Assets 5173 1455 3718 4219 3220 5964 3657 2307 13463 8619 1800 6819 5081 4473 9161 5036 4125 20494 10200 2300 7900 4800 5400 10950 4836 6114 24210 FY08 234 3965 4598 4643 3662 8305 13463 FY09 237 6258 6698 7338 5768 13106 20494 FY10 424 7300 7920 8010 7590 15600 24210

` Crs

FY11E 424 8326 8950 7980 7660 15640 25280

FY12E 424 9506 10130 8020 7650 15670 26490

13000 2700 10300 3020 6839 12050 6925 5125 25280

15000 3200 11800 1900 6200 13200 6606 6594 26490

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Cash Flow Statement (Standalone) Particular Opening balance Net profit before taxes Changes in Working Capital Cash generated from operations [A] Net cash from investing activities[B] Cash generated from financing activities[C] Net Changes in Cash (A+B+C) Cash at the end of the year FY08 1429 843 18 1012 -4257 3631 386 1815 FY09 1815 1252 -862 523 -3713 4259 1070 2884 FY10E 2884 2594 -660 225 -3772 3722 175 3059 FY11E 3059 3421 -720 130 -3822 3809 117 3176

` Crs

FY12E 3176 3228 -710 80 -3872 3839 47 3222

Ratios (Standalone) Ratios Earnings Per Share (Rs) Book Value (Rs) PE Ratio EBITDA (%) PBTM (%) PATM (%) Total Debt/Equity FY09 7.6 31.5 15.65 37.17 21.71 15.57 2.13 FY10 9.0 37.3 13.13 28.03 25.14 18.61 2.06 FY11E 12.1 42.1 9.81 33.88 26.84 20.17 1.82 FY12E 10.5 47.7 11.29 28.73 22.73 15.73 1.62

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Quarterly Results Y-o-Y (Standalone) Particulars Gross Sales Net Sales Other operating income EBITDA Total Expenditure Other Income Operating Profit Interest Exceptional Items PBDT Depreciation PBT Tax Profit After Tax Margins Y-o-Y Particulars EBIDTAM% PBDTM% PBTM% PATM% Jun-10 21.33 27.07 22.4 16.05 Jun-09 27.94 30.36 25.56 23.2 Var% -23.7 -10.8 -12.4 -30.8 Mar-10 25.91 16.92 12.94 7.29 Mar-09 37.88 30.06 25.3 17.91 Jun-10 3,174 3,174 40 3,214 2,532 3 686 328 512 870 150 720 204 516 Jun-09 2,067 2,067 50 2,117 1,525 0 591 222 273 643 102 541 50 491 Var% 54 54 -19 52 66 0 16 48 88 35 48 33 309 5 Mar-10 3,345 3,345 1 3,347 2,491 12 867 299 -2 566 133 433 189 244 Mar-09 2,085 2,085 67 2,152 1,380 43 815 168 0 647 102 544 159 385

` Crs

Var% 60 60 -98 56 81 -72 6 78 0 -12 30 -20 19 -37

Var% -31.6 -43.7 -48.9 -59.3

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Peer Comparison Particulars Net Sales Profit after tax EPS(Rs) M Cap / Sales Total Debt/Equity ROCE% PE Gammon India 4488 145 15.30 0.14 0.61 9.53 3.79 IVRCL 5492 211 16.93 0.33 0.72 9.29 7.18 JAL 10316 1920 9.04 1.73 2.06 8.01 14.22

` Crs

Patel Eng. 2352 132 29.22 0.54 1.29 17.54 4.6

Peer Comparison 12000 10000

Rs. Crs.

8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Gammon India Ltd. IVRCL JAL Patel Eng.

Net Sales

Profit after tax

Compared to peers JAL has performed well and is expected to do so in future.

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For any queries please feel free to contact our Institutional Research Team
Names SALES Ravinder Kasliwal Dealing Shiv Damani Vinit Rita Rashda Ainapore Research Denil Savla Divya Kant Anshuman Jain Sanjeev Haria Sibayan Banerjee Ashok Patel Madhu Patel Designation E-Mail Id. Contact Number 40751565/66 22723797 40751565/66 40751565/66 40751515 * 581 40751515 * 582

Head Institutional Sales ravinder.kasliwal@inveturegrowth.com Institutional Dealer Institutional Dealer Institutional Dealer Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Shiv.damani@inventuregrowth.com vinit.rita@inventuregrowth.com
rashda.ainapore@inventuregrowth.com

denil.savla@inventuregrowth.com divya.kant@inventuregrowth.com

anshuman.jain@inventuregrowth.com 40751515 * 579 sanjeev.haria@inventuregrowth.com 40751515

sibayan.banerjee@inventuregrowth.com 22723797

ashok.patel@inventuregrowth.com madhu.patel@inventuregrowth.com

22723797 22723797

Disclaimer
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