Technical Picks | February 11, 2012

Consolidation or minor correction in the offing

Sensex (17749) / Nifty (5382)
The week began on an optimistic note, in-line with strong global cues. Subsequently, indices moved towards the mentioned resistance level of 17908 / 5400 However, only Nifty managed 5400. to cross this resistance and closed marginally above for a day. Despite strong positive momentum in various stocks, indices could not cross and sustain above 17908 / 5400. This was 5400 mainly due to extreme overbought position of momentum oscillators. Finally, indices registered a weekly closing just below this resistance. On the sectoral front, Realty, Metal, Banking and IT sectors were among the major gainers, whereas Healthcare counters ended in the negative territory. The Sensex ended with a nominal gain of 0.82%, while Nifty gained 1.05% vis--vis the previous week.
Source: Falcon

Exhibit 1: Sensex weekly chart

Exhibit 2: Sensex daily chart

Pattern Formation
On the Weekly chart, indices are hovering around the "Horizontal Resistance Line" placed at 17908 / 5400 level. The Weekly chart depicts a "Doji" formation. The 200-day SMA and 20-day EMA are placed at 5185, 17235 / 5178 and 17160 / 5185 respectively. The "RSI-Smoothened" oscillator on the daily chart is placed in extreme overbought territory.
Source: Falcon

minor bearish implication and requires confirmation. The negative outlook will be confirmed only if indices sustain below the low of 17579 / 5322. In this case, we may witness a 5322 corrective move up to 17200 - 17000 / 5250 - 5185 levels, which also coincides with the support zone of 200-Day EMA and 20-day EMA. Conversely, the pattern will be negated on the violation of the high of "Doji", which is 17890 / 5428 In 5428. this scenario, indices may move higher to test the next resistance level of 18440 - 18932 / 5552 - 5702 5702. We advise traders to stay light on positions and trade with strict stop losses.

Future Outlook
Broadly speaking, this week markets traded in a narrow range of 17579 - 17890 / 5322 - 5428, whereas, few of the individual stocks have outperformed indices. Markets stuck in a range mainly due to extreme overbought condition of momentum oscillators. We are now observing that markets are hovering near the "Horizontal Resistance Line" placed at 17908 / 5400 level (Refer Exhibit 1). Also, the current weekly candle is known as "Doji" pattern, which indicates lack of confidence and uncertainty among market participants. The said pattern has a

For Private Circulation Only |

AngelBrokingLtd:BSESebiRegnNo:INB010996539/CDSLRegnNo:IN-DP-CDSL-234-2004/PMSRegnCode:PM/INP000001546AngelSecuritiesLtd:BSE:INB010994639/INF010994639NSE:INB230994635/INF230994635Membershipnumbers:BSE028/NSE:09946

Technical Picks | February 11, 2012

Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty 50 Stocks

SCRIPS
BSE SENSEX NIFTY BANKNIFTY ACC AMBUJACEM AXISBANK BAJAJ-AUTO BHARTIARTL BHEL BPCL CAIRN CIPLA COALINDIA DLF DRREDDY GAIL HCLTECH HDFC HDFCBANK HEROHONDA HINDALCO HINDUNILVR ICICIBANK IDFC INFOSYSTCH ITC JINDALSTEL JPASSOCIAT KOTAKBANK LT M&M MARUTI NTPC ONGC PNB POWERGRID RANBAXY RCOM RELIANCE RELINFRA RPOWER SAIL SBIN SESAGOA SIEMENS STER SUNPHARMA SUZLON TATAMOTORS TATAPOWER TATASTEEL TCS WIPRO R2 18,050 5,482 10,765 1,497 186 1,166 1,834 412 281 660 411 365 343 249 1,739 406 480 726 540 2,076 169 425 964 147 2,884 211 648 83 586 1,423 748 1,299 186 295 1,058 113 469 101 885 629 115 121 2,248 256 833 138 579 34 271 120 508 1,280 469 R1 17,899 5,432 10,604 1,422 179 1,142 1,785 381 271 629 392 358 337 240 1,681 396 474 710 529 2,023 161 406 947 141 2,837 207 626 80 566 1,387 720 1,272 183 288 1,033 110 455 98 864 601 110 117 2,210 245 812 133 560 33 264 115 491 1,256 459 PIVO PIVOT 17,739 5,377 10,394 1,347 175 1,120 1,700 363 264 597 370 352 331 232 1,636 387 465 693 514 1,982 155 392 929 136 2,775 204 592 77 540 1,362 696 1,253 179 282 999 108 448 93 844 570 104 110 2,171 232 782 127 546 31 255 110 462 1,215 441 S1 17,589 5,327 10,232 1,272 168 1,096 1,651 332 254 566 351 344 325 223 1,578 377 459 677 503 1,929 147 373 912 129 2,729 200 570 74 520 1,326 668 1,225 176 275 973 105 435 90 823 542 99 107 2,133 222 760 123 528 29 248 106 446 1,192 431 S2 17,429 5,273 10,022 1,198 163 1,074 1,566 313 247 534 328 339 319 215 1,533 367 450 660 489 1,888 141 359 894 124 2,667 197 536 71 494 1,301 644 1,206 172 269 939 103 427 85 803 512 93 100 2,094 208 731 117 514 27 239 101 416 1,150 413

Technical Research Team

For Private Circulation Only |
AngelBrokingLtd:BSESebiRegnNo:INB010996539/CDSLRegnNo:IN-DP-CDSL-234-2004/PMSRegnCode:PM/INP000001546AngelSecuritiesLtd:BSE:INB010994639/INF010994639NSE:INB230994635/INF230994635Membershipnumbers:BSE028/NSE:09946

Derivatives Review | February 11, 2012

Some profit booking may happen; But don't short

Nifty spot closed at 5381.60 this week, against a close of 5325.85 last week. The Put-Call Ratio increased from 1.40 to 1.41 levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive 8.37 The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 13.10 8.37%. 13.10%.

Put-Call Ratio Analysis

PCR-OI has increased marginally from 1.40 to 1.41 levels. Over the week we have observed good amount of open interest getting buildup in 5300 and 5400 put option, while in call option we have seen some build up in out-the-money strikes ranging from 5500-5700 strike price and some unwinding was seen in 5200-5300 call option.

Implied Volatility Analysis

Implied Volatility (IV) for NIFTY has decreased from 22.10% to 20.43%. Historical volatility (HV) is at 21.65% and that for BANKNIFTY is trading at 34.03%. Liquid counters having very high HV are IVRCLINFRA, ADANIENT, ESSAROIL, JETAIRWAYS and PUNJLLOYD. Stocks where HV are on lower side are ITC, ONGC, HDFC, SUNPHARMA and CIPLA.

Open Interest Analysis

Total open interest of market has increased from `1,19,401/crores to `1,37,195/- crores. Stock futures open interest has increased from `29,671/- crores to `33,015/- crores. Some of the big names which added open interest are BHARTIARTL, RCOM, BHEL, UNITECH and ONGC. Open interest was shed in some liquid counters like HDIL, BANKINDIA, JINDALSTEL, EDUCOMP and TITAN.

Cost-of-Carry Analysis
Nifty futures closed at a premium of 16.05 points against the premium of 19.70 points to its spot. Next month future is trading with premium of 46 points. Liquid counters where CoC is high are ABGSHIP, TTML, SKUMARSYNF, ABIRLANUVO and GMRINFRA. Stocks with negative CoC are SAIL, SUNTV, COALINDIA, ABAN and CAIRN.

Derivative Strategy
Scrip : ICICIBANK View: Mildly Bullish Buy/Sell BUY SELL SELL
LBEP: LBEP: 944.00 HBEP: HBEP: 1016.00 Max. Risk: Unlimited
If ICICIBANK continue to move above BEP .

CMP : 931.30

Lot Size : 250

Exercise Date (F & O) : 23rd Feb, 2012 Expected Payoff

Price Closing Price Expected rofit/Loss Profit/Loss

Strategy: Ratio Bull Call Spread Scrip ICICIBANK ICICIBANK ICICIBANK Strike Price 940 980 980 Series FEB FEB FEB Option Buy/Sell Rate Type (`) CE CE CE 21.00 8.50 8.50

Qty 250 250 250

920 940 960 980

(`4.00) (`4.00) `16.00 `36.00 `16.00 (`4.00)

Profit: Max. Profit: `9,000/If ICICIBANK closes at 980 on expiry.

1000 1020

NOTE TE: NOTE : Profit can be booked before expiry if ICICIBANK moves in the favorable direction and time value decays.

For Private Circulation Only |

AngelBrokingLtd:BSESebiRegnNo:INB010996539/CDSLRegnNo:IN-DP-CDSL-234-2004/PMSRegnCode:PM/INP000001546AngelSecuritiesLtd:BSE:INB010994639/INF010994639NSE:INB230994635/INF230994635Membershipnumbers:BSE028/NSE:09946

Weekly

Disclaimer
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.

Ratings (Returns) :

Buy (> 15%) Reduce (-5% to -15%)

Accumulate (5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

Neutral (-5 to 5%)

Weekly

6th Floor, Ackruti Star, Central Road, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 39357800

Research Team Fundamental: Sarabjit Kour Nangra Vaibhav Agrawal Shailesh Kanani Bhavesh Chauhan Sharan Lillaney V Srinivasan Yaresh Kothari Sreekanth P .V.S Hemang Thaker Nitin Arora Ankita Somani Varun Varma Saurabh Taparia Technicals: Shardul Kulkarni Sameet Chavan Sacchitanand Uttekar Derivatives: Siddarth Bhamre Institutional Sales Team: Mayuresh Joshi Hiten Sampat Meenakshi Chavan Gaurang Tisani Akshay Shah Production Team: Simran Kaur Dilip Patel Research Editor Production simran.kaur@angelbroking.com dilipm.patel@angelbroking.com VP - Institutional Sales Sr. A.V.P- Institution sales Dealer Dealer Sr. Executive mayuresh.joshi@angelbroking.com hiten.sampat@angelbroking.com meenakshis.chavan@angelbroking.com gaurangp.tisani@angelbroking.com akshayr.shah@angelbroking.com Head - Derivatives siddarth.bhamre@angelbroking.com Sr. Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst shardul.kulkarni@angelbroking.com sameet.chavan@angelbroking.com sacchitanand.uttekar@angelbroking.com VP-Research, Pharmaceutical VP-Research, Banking Infrastructure Metals & Mining Mid-cap Research Associate (Cement, Power) Research Associate (Automobile) Research Associate (FMCG, Media) Research Associate (Capital Goods) Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate) Research Associate (IT, Telecom) Research Associate (Banking) Research Associate (Cement, Power) sarabjit@angelbroking.com vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com shailesh.kanani@angelbroking.com bhaveshu.chauhan@angelbroking.com sharanb.lillaney@angelbroking.com v.srinivasan@angelbroking.com yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com sreekanth.s@angelbroking.com hemang.thaker@angelbroking.com nitin.arora@angelbroking.com ankita.somani@angelbroking.com varun.varma@angelbroking.com Sourabh.taparia@angelbroking.com

CSO & Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093.Tel.: (022) 3083 7700. Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No: INB010996539 / PMS Regd Code: PM/INP000001546 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / NSE Sebi Regn Nos: Cash: INB231279838 / NSE F&O: INF231279838/ Currency: INE231279838 / MCX Currency Sebi Regn No: INE261279838 / Member ID: 10500 / Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302