Sie sind auf Seite 1von 151

Systems Engineering and Analysis

Chapter 1 System Science and Engineering

2/16/2012

rd

OBJECTIVES

AFTER STUDYING THIS CHAPTER, YOU SHOULD BE ABLE TO:

Define systems engineering.


Identify the elements of a system. Classify natural and human-made systems. Specify the components of systems. Understand the impact of technology (magic) Appreciate the complexity of systems engineering. Become familiar with INCOSE.

LEARNING

2/16/2012

rd

In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is. Yogi Berra

2/16/2012

rd

Yogi Berra-isms
If you ask me a question I don't know, I'm not going to answer. Always go to other people's funerals; otherwise they won't go to yours. The future ain't what it used to be. I knew the record would stand until it was broken. I really didn't say everything I said. [...] Then again, I might have said 'em, but you never know. If people don't want to come to the ballpark how are you going to stop them? If the world were perfect, it wouldn't be. What time is it? You mean now? Little things are big. It gets late early out there.

2/16/2012

rd

What is the difference between Aeronautical Engineers and Civil Engineers? Aeronautical Engineers build the weapons; Civil Engineers build the targets.

2/16/2012

rd

What is Engineering?
Knowledge of mathematical and natural sciences applied to utilize limited resources economically for the benefit of people
Scientific approach Optimize resources User/customer in focus

Classical Engineering focused mainly on product design.

2/16/2012

rd

Systems Engineering (SE)


SE is an interdisciplinary approach and means to enable realization of successful systems
It is quantitative including tradeoff, optimization, selection and integration of products from various engineering disciplines It is more of an engineering discipline.

2/16/2012

rd

Why SE is needed
Complexity

Technical

Project

2/16/2012

rd

Wright Brothers

Why SE?

Designed, Built and Flew the worlds first powered, controlled, heavier-than-air flight
2/16/2012 rd 9

Why SE?

ONE Chief Designer TOTAL knowledge


2/16/2012 rd 10

High Complexity Multidisciplinary Cost & Time

SE is needed due to Technical complexity


2/16/2012 rd 11

Early Engineering
Stone tools 1,000,000 BC Fire 500,000 BC Spears 400,000 BC Sewing 23,000 BC Spear thrower 14,000 BC Domestication of sheep 9,000 BC Permanent settlement & irrigation 7,000 BC Copper 6,000 BC Division of labor 5,000 BC

2/16/2012

rd

12

Origins of Systems Engineering


Pyramids 10,000 slaves over 30 years to build Noah's Ark (?), Roman aqueducts, Hoover Dam, Golden Gate Bridge (no theory, Ellis as Grand Old Man) Basic factors After WW II (rush to embrace technology) Faraday's 'dynamo' Of what use is a baby? Competition (space race with trade-offs, PERT & CPM) Specialization (Interfaces) Engineering Management

2/16/2012

rd

13

Golden Gate Bridge

2/16/2012

rd

14

2/16/2012

rd

15

What is a System?
A system is any process that converts inputs to outputs. A group of components that work together for a specified purpose Components - products (hardware, software, firmware), processes, people, information, techniques, facilities, services and other support elements Together integration of many Purpose is achieved by implementing many functions

2/16/2012

rd

16

Three+ Viewpoints
Customer and User ~ the Needs of the System Project Manager ~ time and money constraints Chief Systems Engineer cost effective solutions available, dependable, capable Engineering specialist ~ Capabilities and ambitions, technology to build the system (scientist, engineer, mathematician, physicist) Thus a need for a common language exists among them.
2/16/2012 rd 17

What is a System?
A group of elements arranged to act on the whole in order to achieve a common goal. Composite of equipment, skills and techniques capable of supporting an operational goal.

2/16/2012

rd

18

Elements of a System
Components -- structural, operating and flow:

Input

Processes

Output

System Inputs Auto assembly auto parts, energy

Processes Manipulation, Joining, Finishing

Outputs Assembled autos

Attributes -properties of components like color, strength, mph Relationships -- links between components and attributes, each car has id #

System a set of interrelated components

2/16/2012

rd

19

The Elements of a System


Components operating parts, inputs, processes, output

Attributes component properties


Relationships links components and attributes A system is characterized by the dependent behavior of its components. The effects of removing a pound of flesh from your body shows the dependency.

2/16/2012

rd

20

Three Basic Components


Structural (static) Housing (dynamic) Operating (processing) structural without activity structural with activity highway vs. airway

Flow (information, material, energy)


System Design Hierarchy -- Systems, subsystems, build, components, subcomponents, parts University system: Buildings, Faculty, Students
2/16/2012 rd 21

More systematic way of development Better control of System Development incl. management of risk, changes, configuration Traceability at all levels Operational & supportability aspects Effectiveness Analysis Risk management Operational - Maintainability, Availability, Safety etc

2/16/2012

rd

22

Three Basic Input/Output Entities


Information (signal and data elements) Material substance of all physical objects Energy for operating and moving

Throughput Enters system in one form and exits system in another form

2/16/2012

rd

23

Four Classes of Functional Elements


Signal Data Material Energy sense and communicate information interpret, organize, and manipulate information provide structure and transformation of materials provide energy and motive power.

Each has significance (performing a distinct function) singularity (falls within a singe engineering class) commonality (can be found in many systems)

2/16/2012

rd

24

System Functional Elements


Class Signal Data Material Energy Element Function Input, transmit, transduce, receive, process, output Input, process, control system, control processing, store, output Support, store, react, form, join, control, position Generate thrust, generate torque, generate electricity, control electricity, control motion

2/16/2012

rd

25

Examples
System Inputs Weather Satellite Images Process Data Storage Transmission Aircraft beacon Identification responses Tracking Outputs Encoded images

Terminal air traffic control system Truck location Cargo routing system requests Airline reservation Travel requests system Clinical Patient ID information Test records system Diagnoses

Identify Air tracks Communications Map tracing Routing info Communication Delivered cargo Data management Reservations Tickets Information Patient status management History Treatment

2/16/2012

rd

26

System Errors
Type I Rejecting a true hypothesis Radar detection (failing to react to detected targets) Type II Accepting a false hypothesis Car alarm goes off without intrusion at 3 am Accepting noise as signals NATCS with the ETAs and ETDs under pressure of cost, schedule and performance.
2/16/2012 rd 27

Causes of System Error


Inadequate articulation of requirements Poor planning (not thinking ahead enough) Inadequate technical skills and continuity Lack of teamwork Poor communications and coordination Insufficient monitoring of progress Inferior corporate support

2/16/2012

rd

28

Systems Approach
Follow a systematic and repeatable process Emphasize interoperability and harmonious operations Provide cost effective solution to customer's problem Assure the consideration of alternatives Use iterations as a means of refinement and convergence Satisfy all user and customer requirements Create a robust system

2/16/2012

rd

29

Systems Engineering (SE)


Emphasis on
Top-down approach Interdisciplinary approach Effort on more complete definition of system requirements Life cycle engineering approach

2/16/2012

rd

30

Emphasis in SE
Top-down approach Look at system from top Decide inputs/outputs taking into account the supersystem Decide subsystems allocated down to lower levels Interdisciplinary approach Analytical approach is inadequate Capture the interactions between disciplines Exploit the synergism of these interactions
2/16/2012 rd 31

Emphasis in SE
More complete definition of needs Complete definition of needs facilitates verification of system performance Minimize surprises at later stages Life cycle engineering approach Initial approach was Design cycle Later with Design for Manufacture (DFM) approach Manufacturing cycle also included Present thinking is to consider three life cycles i.e. Design, Manufacturing and Supportability concurrently Leading to Concurrent Engineering (CE)

2/16/2012

rd

32

Life-cycle engineering approach


Acquisition phase Utilization phase

NEED

Design

Conceptual & Preliminary Design

Detail Design & Development Manufacturing Configuration Design

Production and/or Construction Manufacturing Operations

Product use Phase out and Disposal

Manufacture

Deployment

Product support configuration design and development

Product support and maintenance

2/16/2012

rd

33

Product life cycle


Identification of need Conceptual design
System concept

Research Input

Preliminary Design
Subsystem design

Detailed Design & Development


Component design

Production/Construction Utilization & Support Phase-out and Disposal


2/16/2012 rd 34

Basic steps Define system objectives (users needs) Establish performance requirements (requirements analysis) Establish functionality (functional analysis) Evolve design and operation concepts (design synthesis) Select a baseline (through trade-off studies) Verify the baseline meets requirements Iterate the process through lower level trades (decomposition)

2/16/2012

rd

35

INPUT

Requirements analysis

Functional analysis

V
Design Synthesis

OUTPUT
Concept studies

System Analysis & Control

System studies Prelim. Design Detailed Design


2/16/2012 rd 36

Requirement analysis Functional analysis Design Synthesis System analysis and control

Conceptual design Preliminary design Detailed design & Development

Development phasing

System Engineering Management System Engineering process Life cycle approach

Development Production Deployment Operation Support Training Verification Disposal

This interaction shows how to apply SE process to develop systems in life cycle approach 2/16/2012 rd

37

Functional baseline Allocated baseline (Design to specs.) Product baseline (Build to specs.)

Aids to SE Management
Drawing inputs from all the life cycle activities for various development phases

Development phasing
Lifecycle planning

Baselines System Engineering Management System Engineering process Integrated approach

Life cycle approach

Integrated team from Systems engineering and discipline specialists


2/16/2012 rd 38

Relationships
Reflectivity : a ~ a Symmetry: if a ~ b then b ~ a Transitivity: if a ~ b and b ~ c then a ~ c Equivalence relation has all three properties. Examples: : is reflective, not symmetric, but transitive >: taller than : only transitive same birthday, is similar to, is parallel to : congruent, same name are all equivalent and partition the set into distinct classes.

2/16/2012

rd

39

Classification of Systems
Natural and Human Made Solar System, seasons; dams, highways

Physical and Conceptual: exist in space; plans of action, house; house plans; blueprints

Static and Dynamic bridge; commercial aviation highway; Closed and Open Cloud Chamber; fire a cannon; vs. the manufacturing organization that makes the cannon.
2/16/2012 rd 40

Other

Systems

Natural

Man made

Technical

Non Technical

Aircraft Missile

Economic system Societal systems

2/16/2012

Emphasis on Technical systems


rd

41

Technical Systems
Human-made artifacts Result of engineering activities with the processes of engineering design
Difficult to classify systems based on technology like electrical system, mechanical system
Most present day systems are hybrids of simple systems of the past

An indication of the need to use inter-disciplinary approach

2/16/2012

rd

42

Cybernetics
Norbert Weiner coined the word From the Greek meaning governor or steersman Feedback control Regulation and Control Flow of information Generalize control mechanisms Mathematical modeling Homeostasis of biological organisms Self-regulating, automation; snakes and mammals Sought to understand biological systems analogized to electrical systems
2/16/2012 rd 43

Cybernetics
Norbert Weiner Kamikaze & solutions to equations Feedback Homeostasis self regulating Information flow - distinct trigger component Artificial Intelligence (Weizenbaum's Eliza) and Automation General Systems Theory Hierarchy of Levels

2/16/2012

rd

44

MAY I HELP YOU? : I want you to help me WHAT WOULD IT MEAN TO YOU IF YOU GOT ME TO HELP YOU? :Im afraid to tell you YOURE NOT REALLY TALKING ABOUT ME, ARE YOU? : What does that mean WHY DO YOU ASK? :are you asking me WHY ARE YOU INTERESTED IN WHETHER OR NOT I AM ASKING YOU? :why do you keep answering with questions DOES THAT QUESTION INTEREST YOU? :i dont know DONT YOU REALLY KNOW? :no ARE YOU SAYING NO JUST TO BE NEGATIVE? :i think so DO YOU REALLY THINK SO? :not always CAN YOU THINK OF A SPECIFIC EXAMPLE? :oh shut up IM NOT SURE I UNDERSTAND YOU FULLY? :goodbye GOODBYE
2/16/2012 rd 45

Boulding Hierarchy
Frameworks static, 3D universe, electrons & nucleus, gene, solar system Dynamic (Clockwork) time arrow (4th D), generators, lever and pulley motion Thermostat (cybernetics) Radar, c & c flow of information. Seeking stability Open self-maintained & producing environment; How did cell life begin? Plants (flora, botany) -- Systems of differentiated but dependent geneticsocial parts with blueprint for growth (arm, leg, organ) Animal fauna, (can learn) mobility, teleological behavior, AI, (Is universe designed by a Designer? Who designed the Designer? Ad infinitum, infinite regress, behavior, self-awareness, spiritual vs. religious Humans (self-consciousness, awareness, read and write culture evolution) Social Organization (preserve culture, dynamic evolution; values, norms) No person is an island Transcendental ~ Unknowable (God) systems not yet knowing all the answers What can science do to improve the human condition? Not my field. *** Advanced Technology is indistinguishable from magic ***.

2/16/2012

rd

46

2/16/2012

rd

47

Emergence of life Communities


Atom

Organisms

Molecule
Tissue Cell

Organs

Elementary Cellular Automata


2^8 = 256 rules Rigid array Parallel update

Class 1 Repetition

Degenerate, single color or checker board


Nothing really interesting or surprising

Rule 250

Class 2 Nesting
Repeated nested patterns

Rule 90

Class 3 Randomness
10 rules of elementary CA are random

Statistical analysis show randomness


Are purely random patterns less complex than localized structures?

Rule 30

Class 4 Localized Structures


Beyond randomness P. 60 Neither regular nor completely random Unique rule among 256 elementary CA

Rule 110

Elementary cellular automata

rule 222

01.11.2007

Sebastian Klost, Danilo Khn, Heiko Mhle

Elementary cellular automata

rule 222

01.11.2007

Sebastian Klost, Danilo Khn, Heiko Mhle

Elementary cellular automata

rule 94

01.11.2007

Sebastian Klost, Danilo Khn, Heiko Mhle

Elementary cellular automata

rule 94

01.11.2007

Sebastian Klost, Danilo Khn, Heiko Mhle

Elementary cellular automata

rule 90

01.11.2007

Sebastian Klost, Danilo Khn, Heiko Mhle

Elementary cellular automata

rule 90

01.11.2007

Sebastian Klost, Danilo Khn, Heiko Mhle

2/16/2012

rd

60

Holon (Whole)
Holon is simultaneously a whole and a part in that systems are embedded (nested) in other systems. Doctrine of the fundamental and the significant Letters are more fundamental than words, but words are more significant than letters. Hydrogen atom vs. an ant Remove all molecules; atoms still exist. Remove all atoms; molecules cease to exist.

Holarchy hierarchy of holons.

2/16/2012

rd

61

Open systems are: goal seeking, holistic, (more than sum of parts) hierarchical, (holons) have inputs and outputs, transform inputs into outputs, consume or generate energy, are subject to the effects of entropy, have equi-finality (all roads lead to Rome), and have feedback. (bet 64 '(1 0 0 1 1 0) 1/2)

Where would you put manufacturing systems in the Boulding hierarchy?

2/16/2012

rd

62

Natural Systems (e.g. ecological systems, human body) Physically Designed Systems (e.g. subways, machines) Abstract Design Systems (e.g. languages, mathematics) Human Activity Systems (e.g. politics, banking, libraries)

Transcendental Systems (e.g. beyond knowledge or comprehension)

2/16/2012

rd

63

DNA
Double Helix (ATGC) A is for adenine G is for guanine C is for cytosine T is for thymine

2/16/2012

rd

64

Origin of Life
Harold Urey/Stanley Miller suggested to create in a laboratory the conditions of the early earth, add some energy to see what happens. performed the experiment (water, hydrogen, ammonia, methane sparked with lightning) Energy lightning strikes 60K volts; later just ultraviolent light Results Amino acids were created; Adenine A Vincent Sarich serum albumin to create family tree based on the immune system or Immunological distance ID Some results pigeon & penguin closer to turtle than turtle to snake; giant panda is a bear, lesser panda a raccoon. Chimp blood type A, Gorilla Type B and Humans Type AB

2/16/2012

rd

65

Blood Types
Blood comes in four types: O, A, B, and AB. The percentages of people in the United States with each blood type are shown below. Blood Type Percentage O 46 A 40 Chimp B 10 Gorilla AB 4 Human CHIMPANZEES are blood group A, minimal O, never B. GORILLAS are blood group B, minimal O, but never A.

2/16/2012

rd

66

Definitions of Systems Engineering


An interdisciplinary approach and means to enable the realization of successful systems. INCOSE An interdisciplinary, collaborative approach to derive, evolve, and verify a life-cycle balanced system solution to satisfy customer needs Top down hierarchy, concurrent, life-cycle, interdisciplinary, complex, wellplanned, highly disciplinary approach to problem solving.

Systems engineering integrates all the disciplines and specialty groups into a team effort forming a structured development process that proceeds from concept to production to operation.
Systems engineering considers both the business and the technical needs of all customers with the goal of providing a quality product that meets the user needs.

2/16/2012

rd

67

2/16/2012

rd

68

Systems Engineering
Systems Engineering integrates all the disciplines and specialty groups into a team effort forming a structured development process that proceeds from concept to production to operation. Systems Engineering considers both the business and the technical needs of all customers with the goal of providing a quality product that meets the user needs. INCOSE International Council on Systems Engineering

2/16/2012

rd

69

Systems Engineering
PETER SINGE Systems thinking is a discipline for seeing wholes. It is a framework for seeing interrelationships rather than things, for seeing patterns of change rather than static "snapshots." It is a set of general principles -- distilled over the course of the twentieth century, spanning fields as diverse as the physical and social sciences, engineering, and management.... During the last thirty years, these tools have been applied to understand a wide range of corporate, urban, regional, economic, political, ecological, and even psychological systems. And systems thinking is a sensibility -- for the subtle interconnectedness that gives living systems their unique character.

2/16/2012

rd

70

System Life-Cycle
The system life cycle has seven (varies) phases: discovering system requirements, evaluate alternatives, full-scale engineering design, implementation, integration and system test, operation, maintenance and evaluation retirement, disposal and replacement

2/16/2012

rd

71

System Classification
Human or Natural dams and hurricanes Physical or conceptual real vs. simulated Static of dynamic bridge or highway vs. university Closed or open Sealed chemical reaction the Biodrome. Most systems are open Entropy measures the degree of chaos. Information: How many bits to correctly pick a card from a deck of 52? 25 52 26 Energy to organize in one place leads to disorganization outside it; confirming the second law of thermodynamics you lose.

2/16/2012

rd

72

Systems Point of View


Big Picture, Holistic, Gestalt to include the surrounding environment, Top down System a group of components that work together for a specified purpose. (service, product, process) Airport planes, pilots, mechanics, ticket agents, runways, concourses (service) Automobile assembly (product) Refinery change crude oil into gasoline (process) Also note that very detailed and specific work must be done

2/16/2012

rd

73

Reduction vs. Whole


Uniting the Fundamental forces The theory of Everything (TOE) Unifying the 4 fundamental forces (is gravity a force?) Einstein in an elevator (Gedankenexperiment) Seeking the smallest particle of matter; where does the property disappear? (at the atom level) Repeatability of phenomena (reduction)

2/16/2012

rd

74

2/16/2012

rd

75

Optimal
The word optimal should not appear in the statement of the problem, because there is no single optimal solution to complex systems problems. Most SE solutions are unique to situations.

2/16/2012

rd

76

The "Best" System


The word optimal should not appear in the statement of the problem, because there is no single optimal solution to complex systems problems. "the best is the enemy of the good" gain little at higher cost "systems engineering is the art of the good enough" Balanced View
Desired

Minimum acceptable

2/16/2012

rd

77

2/16/2012

rd

78

2/16/2012

rd

79

"Bounded rationality is a genuinely interdisciplinary topic. Its subject matter is the mechanisms that humans, institutions, and artificial agents use to achieve their goals.

Satisficing from satisfying and sacrificing


The common denominator is that decisions need to be made with limited time, knowledge, and other resources, and in a world that is uncertain and changing.

2/16/2012

rd

80

Systems Engineering Process INCOSE says the basic Systems Engineering process tasks are:

1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) 8)

Define the System Objectives Establish the Functionality Establish the Performance Requirements Evolve Design and Operation Concepts Select a Baseline Verify that the Baseline Meets Requirements Validate that the Baseline Satisfies the User Iterate the Process through Lower Levels

2/16/2012

rd

81

Interrelated and Constrained


Performance Product Capability

Better

Decisions

Cheaper Cost

Faster Time

2/16/2012

rd

82

Systems Engineering
Systems Engineering integrates all the disciplines and specialty groups into a team effort forming a structured development process that proceeds from concept to production to operation. Systems Engineering considers both the business and the technical needs of all customers with the goal of providing a quality product that meets the user needs. INCOSE International Council on Systems Engineering

2/16/2012

rd

83

Reduction vs. Whole


The theory of everything (TOE) Seeking the smallest particle of matter Expansionism -- all is part of larger whole Analytical : Reduction :: Synthesis : Expansionism Top-Down : Bottom-up :: inside-out thinking : outside-in thinking Analytical is taking apart; synthesis is putting together Decompositon Electro-magnetism (Synergy) Growth (size and expansion) vs. Development (capacity and competence)

2/16/2012

rd

84

Russell Ackoff describes three theorems in "The Second Industrial Revolution": "If you take apart a system and take it apart to identify its components, and then operate those components in such a way that every component behaves as well as it possibly can, there is only one thing of which you can be sure. The system as a whole will not behave as well as it can...The corollary is this -- if you have a system that is behaving as well as it can, none of the parts will be." Implication of teamwork "The second characteristic of a system is that any part that affects the whole depends on what at least one other part is doing. Or put another way, no part of the system has an independent effect on the whole." "Now the third condition is the most complex one, and the most important. It says that if you take these elements and group them in any way, they form subgroups. These subgroups will be subject to the same first and second conditions as the original elements were; e.g., each subgroup will affect the performance as a whole and no subgroup will have an independent effect on the performance of the whole." System Thinking

2/16/2012

rd

85

World Wars
WW I -- Fought with chemistry, mustard gas WW II -- Fought with physics, operations research, radar, atom bomb WW III WW IV -- Is being fought with Information and Knowledge Internet and computer; Predator Technology and Society Machine Age -- Grand old man (GOM) Systems Age -- too complex for the GOM

2/16/2012

rd

86

Six Basic Machines

2/16/2012

rd

87

Ages
Stone Age (didn't end because of running out of stones) Copper, Bronze, and Iron Ages Silicon Age System Age of more complicated engineering feats

2/16/2012

rd

88

The Systems Age


Operations Research -- Military operations Analytic Thinking outside-in thinking today Synthetic Thinking inside-out future Evaluation Scenario Thinking Synthetic mode of thought systems approach Example a pair of scissors evokes synergy
2/16/2012 rd 89

Systems Engineering
Is it different from good engineering? Interdisciplinary Life cycle complexity Integrating and Iterating demands of Science & Technology Goals use the materials and forces of nature to satisfy needs of the people (Technology) Tradeoffs with hindsight and foresight Disciplined and Planned Science and Technology (old and new)

2/16/2012

rd

90

The Atlas Project


Produced the first ICBM 18,000 scientists and engineers 17 contractors

200 subcontractors
200,000 suppliers

Coordinated by the Ramo-Woodridge Corporation

2/16/2012

rd

91

Engineering

The process of devising a system, component, or process to meet desired needs. It is a decision-making process (often iterative) in which the basic sciences, mathematics, and engineering sciences are applied to convert resources optimally to meet a stated objective
Accreditation Board for Engineering and Technology

2/16/2012

rd

92

Systems Engineering Systems Engineering integrates all the disciplines and specialty groups into a team effort forming a structured development process that proceeds from concept to production to operation. Systems Engineering considers both the business and the technical needs of all customers with the goal of providing a quality product that meets the user needs. INCOSE International Council on Systems Engineering

2/16/2012

rd

93

PMTE Paradigm
Processes -- defines Methods defines Tools enhances Environment enables WHAT to do to accomplish task HOW to do (deals with ideas) WHAT & HOW WHAT & HOW
Processes Methods Tools Environment

Science Why? How? Mathematics If, then Engineering Voila! If it works, it's true.

2/16/2012

rd

94

PMTE
Processes logical sequence of tasks to achieve objective Methods -- Observe, analyze, synthesize, conceptualize, characterize, optimize, document, communicate, simulate

Tools computer or software related


Environments computing, communicating, personal, organizational, managerial, physical, life cycle

2/16/2012

rd

95

Historical Summary of Systems Engineering


Engineering goes back to humankind emerging.
Systems Engineering ~ after WW II relatively recent

Related to management

2/16/2012

rd

96

Cards have letters on one side and numbers on the other. Hypothesis- If a card has a D on one side it must have a 3 on the other side. You are a scientist testing this hypothesis. Which of the four cards below should be turned over? D F 9 3 Contrapositive
p 0 0 1 1
2/16/2012

q 0 1 0 1

~p 1 1 0 0

~q 1 0 1 0

p=>q 1 1 0 1
rd

~q=>~p 1 1 0 1
97

Logical Propositions
Statement Converse Inverse Contrapositive Equivalence pq qp ~p ~q ~q ~p p q

2/16/2012

rd

98

Falsifiability
The criterion of demarcation of empirical science from pseudo science and metaphysics is falsifiability. The strength of a theory can be measured by the breadth of experimental results that it precludes. Sir Karl Popper (1902-1994), LogikderForschung All life is problem-solving.

2/16/2012

rd

99

Propositions

TRUTH

Knowledge

Beliefs

2/16/2012

rd

100

Teleology vs. Naturalism


Teleology the philosophical study of design and purpose. All things should be designed for or directed toward an inherent purpose or final cause. Form is defined by function. Intelligent Design Naturalism Is how Nature is designed; Function is defined by form. Teleology implies that a person has eyes because of the need to see; (form follows function or eyes follow need to see), while naturalism implies that a person has sight simply because of eyes, or that function follows form (eyesight follows from having eyes). Nature adapts the organ to the function, and not the function to the organ ~ Aristotle Nothing in the body is made in order that we may use it. What happens to exist is the cause of its use. ~ Lucretius
2/16/2012 rd 101

CUP
Half Empty Pessimist

Half Full

Optimist

2/16/2012

rd

102

Design Principles
Independence Axiom ~ Maintain the independence of functional requirements Information Axiom ~ Minimize the information content; i.e., a functionally uncoupled design has minimum info. Independence Whats ~ functional domain Hows ~ physical domain through Design Parameters (DP) Functional coupling undesired; physical coupling desired as it leads to less complexity.
2/16/2012 rd 103

Design Principles
Decouple coupled designs Minimize functional requirements and constraints Integrate physical parts Standardize for interchangeability Use symmetry Specify largest tolerance in functional requirements Uncouple Design with less information

2/16/2012

rd

104

Metal removal device

Functional Domain

Power supply

Workpiece rotation source

Speed changing device


Tool holder

Workpiece support and toolholder

Support structure

Tool positioner

Positioner

Support structure

Longitudinal clamp

Rotation shop

Tool holder

2/16/2012

rd

105

Lathe

Physical Domain

Motor drive

Head stock

Gear box

Tailstock

Bed

Carriage

Spindle assembly

Feed screw

Frame

Clamp

Handle

Bolt

Pin

Tapered bore

2/16/2012

rd

106

Functional Requirements
FR1: Provide access to the food in the refrigerator FR2: Minimize the energy loss Door opened and cold air escapes conflicting with FR2.

Decouple with a horizontally hinged door, which when lifted the heavier cold air remains.

2/16/2012

rd

107

Coupling
Functional Coupling vs. Physical Coupling
Just because a single physical entity carries out multiple functions, it does not imply functional coupling! Consider a wrench with open and closed ends or the Swiss Army Knife

2/16/2012

rd

108

Disadvantages of high coupling include


A change in one component forces a ripple of changes in other components. Difficult to understand a component in isolation.

Difficult to reuse or test a component because dependent components must also be included.

2/16/2012

rd

109

Benefits of Uncoupling
Simpler operation More transparent design Simpler to change the design More parallelism in the design process

2/16/2012

rd

110

Information in Axiomatic Design


The probability that a product can satisfy all of its FRs is called the probability of success P(S) The Information Axiom Minimize information content (thereby maximizing probability of success)
-- logical content is inversely proportional to probability

The Information Axiom provides a theoretical foundation for robust design Info = 1/ log2 P(event)

2/16/2012

rd

111

Decision Based Design


Engineering design is a decision making process in which the designer must, in the presence of uncertainty, make choices among alternatives (subjective)

Decision making has an axiomatic basis in vN-M utility theory etc.


Designers should try to maximize E(u), i.e., satisficing.
2/16/2012 rd 112

Axiomatic EUT
Completeness: For a, b; either a > b or b > a Transitivity: For a , b and c, if a > b and b > c, then a > c Continuity: For a, b, c such that a > b > c, there exist an such that a + (1 - )c = b Independence: For a, b, c and ; a > b if and only if a + (1 - )c > b + (1 - ) c

2/16/2012

rd

113

Framing Effect
Kahneman/Tversky Surgery: 100 people => 90 live after operation, 68 are alive after first year and 34 are alive after 5 years. Radiation:100 people => 77 are alive after first year and 22 are alive after 5 years. _____________________________________________ Surgery: 100 people => 10 die after operation, 32 die by end of first year and 66 die by end of 5 years. Radiation: 100 people => 23 die by end of first year and 78 die by end of 5 years.

Name your poison.

2/16/2012

rd

114

Risk Aversion We give someone a choice between two wagers. WAGER I: A 100% chance of losing $50 WAGER II: A 25% chance of losing $200 and a 75% chance of losing nothing

Most people will pick Wager II, even though the two wagers have identical expected utilities.

2/16/2012

rd

115

We give someone a choice between two wagers

WAGER I: A 25% chance of winning $200


WAGER II: A 100% chance of winner $50. Most people will pick Wager II, even though the two wagers have identical expected utilities. The phrase "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush" comes to mind

2/16/2012

rd

116

External Cues
Consider

"fiuoynacdaersiht, s'tiaelcarim!"
The whole of the situation is more than its parts. Figure-Ground relationship ~melody-harmony
OB 5 117

And so these men of Indostan Disputed loud and long, Each in his own opinion Exceeding stiff and strong, Though each was partly in the right, And all were in the wrong! ~ John Godfrey Saxe the elephant is like a wall, snake, spear, tree, fan or rope,

Prospecting in Perspectives with Deep in Thoughts


Patron: Waitress, I'll have a cup of coffee with no cream. Waitress: You'll have to have it with no milk 'cause we ain't got no cream. How do you pronounce the 50th state, Hawaii or Havaii? Havaii Thank you. You're Velcome! Patron: I'd like a round trip ticket. Ticket Agent (a bit annoyed) To where? To where? Patron: (a bit annoyed) To here! To here!
OB 5 119

Prospecting in Perspectives Prospecting in Perspectives (continuing)


Tourist 1: (yelling to Tourist 2 on the other side of the Seine in Paris) Hey, how do I get on the other side? Tourist 2: You already are on the other side. 1st Umpire: Some are balls; some are strikes. I call them as they are. 2nd Umpire: Some are balls; some are strikes. I call them as I see them. 3rd Umpire: Some are balls; some are strikes. But they ain't nothing 'til I calls them. Costello: Well then who is on first? Abbott: Yes.

OB 5 120

Costello: All I'm trying to find out is the fellow's name on first base. Abbott: Who. Costello: The guy that gets... Abbott: That's it. Costello: Who gets the money... Abbott: He does, every dollar. Sometimes his wife comes down and collects it. Costello: Whose wife? Abbott: Yes. PAUSE Abbott: What's wrong with that? Costello: Look, all I wanna know is when you sign up the first baseman, how does he sign his name? Abbott: Who. Costello: The guy. Abbott: Who. Costello: How does he sign... Abbott: That's how he signs it. Costello: Who? Abbott: Yes.

Airplane!
Roger Murdock: We have clearance Clarence. Captain Oveur: Roger, Roger. What's our vector, Victor? Tower voice: Tower's radio clearance, over! Captain Oveur: That's Clarence Oveur! Oveur. Tower voice: Roger. Roger Murdock: Huh? Tower voice: Roger, over. Roger Murdock: Huh? Captain Oveur: Huh?

2/16/2012

rd

Prospecting in Perspectives
How do you say "adios" in Spanish? Rome wasn't born in a day. Do you know the longest sentence in the English language? I do, but I'm not telling. It ain't over until it's over!

Ignorant or Apathetic
1st person: I don't know whether you are ignorant or apathetic?
2nd person: I don't know and I don't care.

Definitions Decision a choice among alternatives, an irrevocable allocation of resources

Outcome the result of a decision


Expectation Ones knowledge about the outcome prior to making a decision Uncertainty a lack of precise knowledge Risk The result of uncertainty on the outcome of a decision

Information The basis on which good decisions are made


2/16/2012 rd 125

Cognitive Training
How can one cook 3 steaks in 9 minutes on a 2-steak grill when each side requires 3 minutes?
Quick! You have 5 seconds to make a melon out of a lemon. What to do? Tick, tick, tick, tick tah-dah!

2/16/2012

rd

126

Cognitive Training
The next number is: 362880? 12 10 22 10 23 45 11 24 ? 11 25 10 35 11 44 10 26 20 62 22 23 54 ? Which word does not belong? truths flit thewig krow grad arial polysyllabic Bold italics CAPITALS Tom, Dick and Harriet live together. Two are blind and one is deaf. Tom enters a room, clicks on a light, and Harriet, alone on the sofa, says "Hi, Tom." Who's who?
2007 Prentice Hall Inc. All rights reserved.

Perceptual
Fly at 70 mph

A at 40 mph A 100 miles

B at 60 mph B

2/16/2012

rd

128

Determinism vs. Free Will

Box A $1,000

Box B $1,000,000

Your objective is to make as much money as you can. You can take the contents of both boxes or just Box B. Your God comes to you and says, "If I thought you would take both boxes, I left Box B empty; but if I thought you would just take Box B, I put in 1 million dollars for you.
rd OB-129

2/16/2012

People prefer a certain gain over an uncertain gain even if the uncertain gain would be larger AND People prefer an uncertain loss over a certain loss even if the uncertain loss would be larger. These two opposing tendencies can be used to produce a form of irrational behavior known as a preference reversal. Save $5 on a $10 battery vs. save $5 on a $1000 suit.

2/16/2012

rd

130

Preferences and Pie You are presented with two pies Banana Cream and Cherry You select Banana Cream You are presented with two pies Apple and Banana Cream You select Apple You are presented with two pies Cherry and Apple You select Cherry Anything problematic in this situation? Not transitive
2/16/2012 rd 131

Transitivity
You see three pies: Apple, Berry, and Cherry. Suppose you are asked your preference between A and C. You answer C. May I not also statistically infer that you prefer B to A with probability 2/3? Show why or deny. Assuming transitivity of C over A, the remaining permutations of A, B and C are ABC ACB BAC BCA CAB CBA, and B is preferred over A in 2 of the 3 cases.

2/16/2012

rd

132

Voting Approaches
Plurality Vote for one alternative; most votes win, Majority Vote for one alternative; must receive more than 50% of the votes to win; If not, runoff between top two with plurality. Weighted Voting Assign weights to preferences Borda voting (n-1) for most preferred, (n-2) for next etc. Condorcet voting -- Binary comparison voting Copeland voting wins - losses

2/16/2012

rd

133

Voting Examples
N = 60 (23+19+16+2) people; Candidates a, b, c, 23: a > c > b; 19: b > c > a; 16: c > b > a; 2: c > a > b PLURALITY => a = 23, b = 19, c = 18 and a wins. MAJORITY => runoff between a and b; a = 23 + 2 = 25; b = 19 + 16 = 35 > 30 and b wins. BORDA => a = 2(23) + 1(2) = 48; b = 2(19) + 1(16) = 54 c = 1(23) + 1(19) + 2(16) + 2(2) = 78, c wins. Approval voting 23 < a < 25; 19 < b < 35; 18 < c < 60 Mid rank => a = 24; b = 27; c = 39 and c wins. Copeland => a = 2(23) + 1(2) 2(19) 2(16) 2(1) = 48 72 = -24 b = 54 2(23) - 1(16) - 2(2) = 54 - 66 = -12 c = 78 1(23) -1(19) = 78 42 = 36 and c wins. Suppose 400: a > c > b; 390: b > c > a; 40: c > b > a Plurality: a > b > c :: 400:390:40; Pairs => c > a :: 430:400; c > b :: 440:390 b > a :: 430:400 => c > b > a
2/16/2012 rd 134

Voting Coalitions
Assume that {a, b, c, d} represent a committee of 4 members, each having a single vote where a simple majority vote is required. Each element of P can be viewed as a voting coalition. Thus W = { (a,b,c}, {a,b,d}, {a,c,d}, {b,c,d}, {a,b,c,d} } is the set of winning coalitions and W = { , {a}, {b}, {c}, {d}, {a,b}, {a,c}, {a,d}, {b,c}, {b,d}, {c,d}} is the set of non-winning coalitions. L = {, {a}, {b}, {c}, {d} } W is a losing coalition (its complement is a winning coalition), and B = {{a,b}, {a,c}, {a,d}, {b,c}, {b,d}, {c,d} } W is a blocking coalition.
135

Intransitivity of Preferences
The preference ordering A>B>C>A Implies an ordering of utilities U(A ) > U(B) > U(C) > U(A)

Intransitive preferences Allow a Dutch bet to be formed Are considered by many to be irrational.

2/16/2012

rd

136

Arrows Impossibility Theorem


Given the choice between x, y and z, a group preference should satisfy conditions: If everyone in the group prefers x over y, the group preference should be for x over y. If the group preference is for x over y and for y over z, then the group preference should be for x over z. If the group must choose between x and y, their preference should not depend upon whether z exists or not There shouldnt be a dictator in the group, i.e., the preferences of each individual in the group should count.

No method of preference aggregation meets these conditions.


2/16/2012 rd 137

Arrows Theorem and Engineering


Hazelrigg, G. A., 1997, On Irrationality in Engineering Design, ASME J of MechDes. Votes Engineer Preference A vs. B B vs. C A vs. C I A>B>C A B A II B>C>A B B C III C>A>B A C C Group preference A>B B>C C>A 40 A B C Remove B 40 AC C wins; Remove C 65AB A wins 35 B C A 60 CA 35BA 25 C A B Remove A 75BC B wins 25CB
2/16/2012 rd 138

Arrows theorem implies that irrationality is practically assured a customer-centered view of design is not possible The majority of methods in common use in engineering design provide results that are egregiously in error

2/16/2012

rd

139

Shapley-Shubik Power Index


Suppose representatives a, b, c, and D and E meet to decide legislation with a, b and c getting 1 vote from their small districts and D and E 2 votes. Compute the power index of each. Total vote count is 3(1) + 2(2) = 7 implying that a majority is 4. How many voting arrangements is a rep a pivotal, being the 4th vote? 3 votes must precede a's and 3 after. 2 (b or c) x 2 (D E) x 2 (eg bD or Db) x 1 (a) x 2 (eg cE or Ec) 16 ways bDa cDa bEa cEa the permutations to include the reverses given as Dba Dca Eba Eca sum to 8 + 8 = 16 arrangements of the 5! = 120 arrangements for a power index of 16/120 = 2/15; for b and c as well. With D pivotal and 2 votes preceding, ED there are 3! votes afterwards and in reverse 12 plus 3 * 2 * 2(eg abD Ec or cE) arrangements yielding (3 * 2 * 2) + 3! = 18 * 2 = 36 for D or 36/120 = 3/10 for D & E 3/10 divided by 2/15 = 2.25 D and E have a power index 2.25 over a, b and c. 36/16 = 2.25
2/16/2012 2/16/2012 rd rd 140 140

Number of Voters Preferences 6 a>b>c 7 b>a>c 8 c>a>b In the above election, 11 of 21 votes are required to win. Since no candidate receives a majority, a runoff is held between b and c (the two highest vote-getters), and as the voters prefer b to c, b wins the runoff. Now suppose that three voters switch their preferences from c > a > b to b > c > a. This is represented in the following table: Number of Voters Preferences 6 a>b>c 10 b>a>c 5 c>a>b In this case, a and b proceed to the runoff, where a ends up defeating b by 11 to 10. Thus, receiving strictly greater support in the second election caused b to change from a winning candidate to a losing candidate.

2/16/2012

rd

141

Utility and Choice


Some common misperceptions about utility are:

The test of utilities is to see if they result in reasonable choices.


It is common for engineers to test utility functions by examination of the reasonableness of choices. The reality is that utilities need to be tested against preferences, not choices. Press any key to continue (to strike or not to strike) . Preference or indifference? Perspective dependent; Does choice => Preference?
2/16/2012 rd 142

Hazelriggs Example Estimate the number of M&Ms in a jar Whoever is closest without going over wins; auction bias Conventional approach Create a model Submit your best estimate Rational approach Create a model Propagate uncertainty Model the competitive scenario Select guess for max E(u) and minimum Variance
2/16/2012 rd 143

Benefits of Decision Theory


Emphasizes the role of uncertainty in engineering design

Shows that resolution among alternatives is an important criteria for handling uncertainty
Brings in the influence of competitors on designs Aligns decisions with the goal of engineering design (profit?) Preferences are of the decision maker

2/16/2012

rd

144

TTH vs. HTH


Pick a sequence of 3 outcomes from repeated fair coin flips. Then I will also. Whatever sequence occurs first wins. Ill even let you pick first. Wanna Play for some $? (show-h-vs-t '(t t h) '(h h t)) (sim-H-vs-T '(T T H) '(H T H) 1000)

(THH > HHT > HTT > TTH > THH)


2/16/2012 rd 145

Blooms Taxonomy of Educational Objectives 1. Knowledge list, recite 2. Comprehension explain 3. Application apply concepts to novel situations 4. Analysis troubleshoot 5. Synthesis assemble new ideas or parts 6. Evaluation judge Bloom, B. S., Krathwohl, D. R. (1984) Taxonomy of Educational Objectives, New York: Addison Wesley. explain, paraphrase, calculate, solve, predict, model, derive, design, invent, propose, judge, critique, justify

2/16/2012

rd

146

Pugh Matrix
The Pugh Matrix is a tool that is used to help select the best design concept from among alternatives. During the process, new concepts may also be generated. Inputs & Outputs: Used to find the most effective design concept among alternatives and generate even better concepts during the process. The strength of the Pugh Matrix is in the way it supports team discussions.

2/16/2012

rd

147

Consider the Pugh Matrix below. The matrix contains 4 criteria, 3 alternatives, and a set of weights for each criteria. The rating system used is the score approach on a scale of 1 to 10.
Weight Criteria Alternative A Alternative B Alternative C

Number 1

20

Number 2

30

Number 3

10

Number 4

40

2/16/2012

rd

148

Customer wants & needs (CTQs: Attributes)

Importa nce of need 5 8 10 10 10

Desig n Baseli ne 0 0 0 0 0

Op t #1

Op t #2

Op t #3

Op t #4

Op t #5

Op t #6

Op t #7

Op t #8

Op t #9

Op t #1 0

Op t #1 1

Op t #1 2

Op t #1 3

Op t #1 4

Pc. Cost comparison to existing system Systems cost impact Manufacturability System compatability Net build at asm.

Thermal range
Air gap Low speed limit High speed limit Resolution capability Pulse width encoding Accuracy/precision Output signal level Output waveform Reliability/Durability Serviceability Materials availability Package size (mass)

10
8 4 4 9 5 10 10 4 10 4 10 10

0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EMI/EMC robustness
SUM

10
151

0
0

2/16/2012

rd

149

Systems
Natural vs. human Static vs. dynamic Discrete vs. continuous Homogeneous vs. heterogeneous Separable vs. interactive Linear vs. nonlinear Sequential vs. simultaneous Regular vs. irregular Single vs. multiple perspectives (elephant)

2/16/2012

rd

150

Why SE?
%
100 Commitment to technology, configuration, cost etc

75 Cost incurred System specific knowledge 50

25 Ease of change

Concept & prelim. Detail design & development design

Production

Use, phase-out disposal

2/16/2012

rd

151