Regional Center of Urban Water Management (RCUWM- Tehran)

Water Demand Management Workshop

Demand Forecasting

Mohammad Karamouz
Professor, Amir Kabir University (Tehran Polytechnic)

Banafsheh Zahraie
Assistant Professor, Tehran University
September 6-17, 2003 Tehran, Iran

Points to be Addressed
Data and Information Needed for Long Lead Forecasting of the Regional Water Demand Municipal Water Demand Population Forecasting Methods: Short-term and Long-term Time Series Modeling: Basic Steps Agricultural Water Demands Climate Signals: Prediction of Dry and Wet Spells Environmental Water Demands

Why is it important to forecast the demands?

Projected trends of water use serve as measures to guide planners as they propose:

New water resources facilities Modification of existing systems New or revised operating rules Regulatory changes Revised laws Organizational changes Research Projects

What types of information is needed?

Past histories of water use are valuable information in making estimates of future water use. This information indicates the principle factors in determining the future water use.

Data and Information Needed for Lead Forecasting of the Regional Water Demand Long

Population projections based on demographic studies and studies done by the agencies responsible for multiple-sector investment decisions Distribution of urban and rural population among subregions Gross national product (GNP) Expected use of brackish or ocean water

The Needed Data and Information for

Long Lead Forecasting of the Regional Water Demand

Projected outputs of agricultural, mining, electric power, and major manufacturing sectors for determining the regional distribution of activities based on the projected GNP Projected rates of per capita water use based on technological advancements and relative share of instream and offstream uses

Municipal Water Demand

Disaggregate Estimation of Water Use Precise estimation of municipal water use can be obtained by breaking down the total delivery of water to urban areas into a number of classes of water use and determining separate average rates of water use for each class. Water use within some homogenous sectors is less variable compared to the total water use, therefore, greater accuracy in water use estimation can be obtained.

Municipal Water Demand

1. Domestic Washing and cooking Toilets Bath and/or shower Laundry House cleaning Yard irrigation Swimming pool Car washing Other personal uses (hobbies, etc.)

2. Public services

Municipal Water Demand

Public swimming pools Governmental agencies and private firms Educational services (such as schools, universities) Firefighting Irrigation of parks, golf courses, etc. Health services (such as hospitals) Public baths, public toilets, etc. Cultural public services (such as libraries and museums) Street cleaning and sewer washing Entertainment and sport complexes (such as cinemas) Food and beverage services Accommodation services Barber shops and beauty parlors

Municipal Water Demand

3. Small industries (such as laundry stores) 4. Construction and public works 5. Water losses Leakage from pipes, valves, meters, etc. Evaporation in open reservoirs Overflow of reservoirs Defective elements of a water distribution network, such as cracked reservoirs, flow back through oneway valves and pumps, etc. Loss in production process (cooling, pumping, etc.) 6. Transportation Taxies, buses, and other conveyances stations Ports and airports Railways (stations and workshops)

Parameters Affecting Municipal Water Demand

1. Population Changes 2. Climate Variations 3. Hydraulic Characteristics of the Water Distribution Network 4. Price and Economic Incentives 5. Living Standards Demand= f (population, price, standards, past use, etc.) + g(climate variations, )

Price Elasticity: The percent of decrease in quantity demanded due to 1 percent increase in price

California 1989 Weber -0.06 / -0.23 winter US 1982 & 1967 Howe et al -0.57 / -0.86 summer US east 1982 & 1967 Howe et al -0.43 / -0.52 summer US west 1982 & 1967 Howe et al

Population Forecasting Methods

Graphical Mathematical Ratio and Correlation Component Methods

Short-term Estimates for 1 to 10 Years Graphical Extension Method 1. Plot the population of the past census years against time 2. Sketch a curve that fits the data 3. Extend this curve into the future to obtain the projected population

Population (Thousands) 100 120 20 40 60 80 0

18 6 18 18 18 9 19 0 19 1 19 2 19 19 4 19 5 19 19 0 60 19 8 70 19 9 20 0 0 0 0 0 30 0 0 0 0 80 70 0

Short-term Estimates for 1 to 10 Years

Short-term Estimates for 1 to 10 Years

120 Population (Thousands) 100 80 60 40 20 0 y = -0.0551x 3 + 1.1752x 2 + 0.8758x + 13.303 R2 = 0.9991

18 60 18 70 18 80 18 90 19 00 19 10 19 20 19 30 19 40 19 50 19 60 19 70 19 80 19 90 20 00

Short-term Estimates for 1 to 10 Years Arithmetic Growth Method: This method

considers that the same population increase takes place in a given period.

dP/dt = Ka

Short-term Estimates for 1 to 10 Years Geometric Growth Method: This method

considers that the increase in population takes place at a constant percent of the current population.

dP/dt = P Ka Ka=(ln P2 - lnP1)/t

Short-term Estimates for 1 to 10 Years Declining Growth Rate Method: This method

considers that the city has a saturation population and the rate of growth becomes less as the population approaches the saturation level.

dP/dt = Ka(Psat-P) Ka=(-1/t) . ln[(Psat-P2)/(Psat-P1)]

Saturation Population, Psat c Population d

Declining Rate of Growth dP/dt (Psat-P)

b a

Arithmetic Growth dP/dt 1 Geometric Growth dP/dt P

Time (years)

Long-term Forecasting for 10 to 50 years or more Graphical Comparison Method

1. Several larger cities in the vicinity are selected whose earlier growth exhibited characteristics similar to those of the study area. 2. The population-time curves should then be plotted for the selected cities and the study area. 3. Lines parallel to the growth rate of the selected cities shows a range of future growth.

Population

ty Ci

ity

City

City

Years

Long-term Forecasting for 10 to 50 years or more Mathematical Logistic Curve Method: This
method is suitable for the study of large population centers such as large cities, states, or nations. On the basis of the study of growth curve, certain mathematical equations of an empirical curve conforming to this shape (S-shape) is proposed.

Saturation Population, Psat

Population

dP/dt = Psat/(1 + a ebt)

Time (years)

Long-term Forecasting for 10 to 50 years or more Ratio and Correlation Method: This
method is suitable for an area, which is a part of a region, state, nation, or larger area. It is assumed that the growth of the smaller area has some relation to the growth of the larger area.

Long-term Forecasting for 10 to 50 years or more Component Method: In this method, population
change is disaggregated to the changes due to: 1. Birth 2. Death B = K1 P0 t

D = K2 P0 t

3. Migration(M) Pt = P0 + B D M

Statistical Forecast Models

In recent years a great deal of effort has been devoted to improve the followings: 1. Understanding the stochastic nature of hydrologic variables 2. Modeling procedures 3. Developing new statistical models 4. Parameter estimation techniques 5. Model evaluation and fitness tests

 A time series is a sequence of values arranged in their order of occurrence in time. A process is a mathematical description of the behavior of a phenomenon in one or more dimensions in space and/or time. Because all hydrologic phenomena change in space or time, they are hydrologic processes. If a process contains a random component, it is a stochastic process , which is a family of random variables, defined on a probability space. Stochastic processes are subdivided into stationary and non-stationary.

 A stochastic process is stationary if the expected values of statistical descriptors do not change over time. If a time series is stationary, the series should be divided into a number of no-overlapping sub-series and the expected values of statistical descriptors of each series should be the same for each of the subseries.

Components of the Hydrologic Variables

Hydrologic variables are mostly nonstationary due to the following variations that are the result of natural and human activities: 1. Trend 3. Jump 4. Periodicity 5. Randomness

 Trend is a unidirectional gradual change (increasing or decreasing) in the average value of the variable. Changes in nature caused by human activities are the main reason for the over-several-years trends. Trends are usually smooth, and we should be able to represent it by a continuous and differentiable function of time. Trend is usually considered to be deterministic and it can be modeled by linear or polynomial functions: Linear function Polynomial function Power functions

7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1 20 39 58 77 96 115 134 153 172 191 210 229

 Jump is a sudden positive or negative change in the observed values. Human activities and natural disruptions are the main reasons for jumps in time series.

9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1 20 39 58 77 96 115 134 153 172 191 210 229

Periodicity represents cyclic variations in a time series. These variations are repetitive over fixed intervals of time.

3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1 20 39

Randomness represents variations due to the uncertain nature of the stochastic process. The random component of time series can be classified as autoregressive or purely random. 1.2
1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1 51 101 151 201 251

TIME SERIES MODELING: BASIC STEPS

STEP 1. DATA PREPARATION The main tasks in data preparation phase can be summarized as:
1. Trends removal 2. Removal of outlying observations (jumps) 3. Removal of periodicity 4. Fit a well-known distribution to the data by applying proper transformations if needed.

TREND REMOVAL

TREND REMOVAL

REMOVING TREND AND SEASONALITY: DIFFERENCING

The first differencing operator is defined as:

REMOVING TREND AND SEASONALITY: DIFFERENCING

7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1 20 39 58 77 96

2000 115 134 153 172 191 210 229 1500 1000 500 0 -500 -1000 -1500 -2000 1 20 39 58 77 96 115 134 153 172 191 210 229

APPLYING TRANSFORMATIONS
In most of the parameter estimation methods, it is assumed that the time series probability distribution is normal, but in many cases the time series do not follow normal distribution, are asymmetrically distributed, or are bounded by zero. BOX-COX Transformation:

I I

(1 , 2 ) t ( 2 ) t

( I t + 2 ) 1.0 = 1 1 1 m

1 > 0.0 1 = 0.0

= m ln( I t + 2 )

BOX-COX TRANSFORMATION

BOX-COX TRANSFORMATION

Original Series Transformed Series

Forecasted Series

Identification of Forecast Model Composition for Stochastic Components of Demand

The next step is to decide upon the use of a univariate or multivariate model, or a combination, with desegregation models. This decision can be made based on the characteristics of the water resources system and existing information. information

Univariate Models: Autoregressive(AR) models

These models incorporate the correlation between time sequences of variables These are simple models and their development goes back to the application of Markov lag-1 models. The basic form of AR(p) is as follows:

Z t = j =1 j Z t j + t
p

Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models Time series could be better forecasted by adding a moving average component to the AR models. The combination of an autoregressive model of order p and a moving average model of order q makes an ARMA(p,q) model, which is formulated as follows:

Z t = 1 Z t 1 + ... + p Z t p + t 1 t 1 ... q t q

Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Models

The ARIMA models are suitable for the data that have two basic characteristics: 1. No apparent deviation from stationarity 2. Rapidly decreasing autocorrelation function If these conditions are not met by a time series, a proper transformation should be performed to generate time series satisfying the above conditions. This is usually been achieved by differencing, satisfying the essence of ARIMA models.

Simple and Multiplicative ARIMA

Formulation of simple ARIMA is as follows;

(B )(1 B )d z t = (B ) t
Where: (B ) = 1 1 B 2 B 2 .... p B p

(B ) = 1 1 B 2 B 2 .... q B q
Formulation of multiplicative ARIMA model is as follows;

B (B ) 1 B
w

( ) (

w D

(1 B )d z t = (B w ) (B ) t

Regression based Models Regression based models has been widely used for demand forecasting: 1-Linear Regression 2- Multiple Regression

Linear Regression Using Least Square

The method of least squares finds that particular line where the aggregate deviation of data points above or below it is minimized. Rather than measuring it's separation in terms of the physical distance, the procedure is instead upon vertical deviations, which are then squared. This not only eliminates in measuring perpendicular line segments, but it provides summary statistics having desirable properties

Y ( X i ) = a + bX i

Confidence Interval for the Slope of the Model

The following experession is used to construct a confidence interval of true slope B:

100(1 )%

B = b t

SYX 1 2 X ( X ) 2 n

Which t is t-student distribution with n-2 degree of freedom

Confidence Interval for the Intercept of the Regression Model

Inferences regarding the intercept aren't as common as for the slope. The following expression shows the confidence interval estimate of the true intercept:

A = a + t SYX
2

1 X2 + n ( X X )2

Multiple Regression and Correlation

Linear multiple regression analysis extends simple linear regression by considering two or more independent variables.

Y = a + b1 X 1 + b2 X 2

Agricultural Water Demand

Agricultural water demands change from year to year and month to month. The parameters affecting agricultural water demands can be summarized as follows: Crop mix Irrigated and dry-land farming Period and sequence of cropping Physical characteristics of the water transfer and irrigation systems Market prices Climate variation Policies related to pricing, importing, and exporting of agricultural prod-ucts.

( ) Agricultural Water Demands (MCM/Year) 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 850 900 950
13 49 13 51 13 53 13 55 13 57 13 59 13 61 13 63 13 65 13 67 13 69 13 71 13 73

Variations of Irrigation Demand Due to Climatic Variation

3-year moving average of the entire region and fitted polynomials to dry and wet spells
400 rainfall (mm) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 3 8 13 18 23 28 33 38 y = -1.7712x 3 + 30.219x 2 - 167.85x + 493.9 R2 = 0.9929 y = 0.4417x 3 - 41.429x 2 + 1276x - 12693 R2 = 0.9798 350 y = 0.3584x 3 - 15.639x 2 + 216.7x - 730.72 R2 = 0.8292 y = 5.266x 3 - 354.89x 2 + 7938.5x - 58723 R2 = 0.94

time (year)

Estimation of Crop Water Demand

The crop water demand is estimated based on the evapotranspiration of the reference crop. ETo=Kc (ETo) Kc: Crop Coefficient Kc is changing in the difference crop development stages as follows: Initial Stage Development Stage Middle Stage Final Stage

Estimation of Crop Water Demand Kc

Initial Stage Rapid Growth Period

Middle Stage of Crop Development

Final Stage

Crop Development Period

Climate Signals: Prediction of Dry and Wet Spells

A Case Study of Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting Using ENSO Climate Signals

Major Climate Signals

ENSO (El-Nino Southern Oscillation) NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) Other Signals

ENSO Climate Signal

ENSO climate signal has two following phases:
Warm phase (El-Nino) Cold phase (La-Nina)

El-Nino refers to appearance, around Christmas, of a warm ocean current off the South American coast, adjacent to Ecuador and extending into Peruvian waters.

ENSO Climate Signal El-Nino

ENSO Climate Signal La-Nina

ENSO Climate Signal: Prediction of Dry and Wet Spells

Precipitation

over 20-30 percent of the lands are affected by ENSO (El-Nino Southern Oscillation) events Effect of ENSO on the average global precipitation is estimated as 15-25 percent. ENSO events have effects with delay on summer precipitation in East Asia. El-Nino Events usually are followed by: Summer precipitation less than normal in India and North Australia Winter precipitation higher than normal in southeast Asia

ENSO Climate Signal: Prediction of Dry and Wet Spells

Results of studies on North Indian Ocean shows

that sea surface water temperature has been significantly higher than normal level in the period of El-Nino events. In El-Nino years, highest sea surface temperatures have been occurred in Persian Golf compare to other water bodies around the world

North Atlantic Oscillation

A sea saw of atmospheric mass which alternated between the polar and subtropical regions. Changes in the mass and pressure fields leads to variability in the strength and pathway of storm systems crossing the Atlantic from the U.S. East coast to Europe. The NAO is most noticeable during the winter season (November-April) with maximum amplitude and persistence in the Atlantic sector.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

PDO refers to a to a numerical climate index based on sea surface temperatures in a particular region of the North Pacific, which has an interannual signature The warm phase of the PDO (positive numerical index value) has similar effects in the Pacific Northwest to those experienced in warm ENSO years, and the effects associated with the coldphase of PDO resemble those associated with cold-phase ENSO

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

PDO oscillate with a characteristic period on the order of 25-50 years. The observed bimodal nature of the PDO on decadal time scales and the typical persistence of a dominate phase of the PDO for several decades, allows the PDO to be included in real-time forecasting schemes in a useful manner

A Case Study: Salt River Basin in Arizona

The Salt River basin is located in the central part of Arizona. Four dams are located in this basin. A total storage capacity of about two million acre-feet on 13,000 square mile Salt-Verde watershed provide water for Phoenix, the capital city of Arizona.

A Case Study: Salt River Basin in Arizona

Total Seasonal Volume (BGal) 500 400 300 200 100 0 -3 -2 -1 0 SOI index 1914-1970 1971-1998 1 2 3

Season 2
Dec.-Feb.

Proposed algorithm for rule-based forecasting of hydrologic variables

Step 1. Definition of Hydrologic Seasons

Statistical Analysis
Removing Trend Removing Periodicity Removing Outlier Data

Different Rainfall Patterns

Monsoon and Tropical Storms Mid-Latitude Systems Monthly Variation of Rainfall

Statistical Analysis of Monthly Data

Surface and Subsurface Water Resources Interactions Definition of Hydrologic Seasons

Normal Probability Test for Each Season

Seasonal Time Series

Redefinition of Seasons

Step 2. Statistical Forecasting

Generation of Normal and Standard Forecast Series Selection of Best ARIMA Models Generation of Forecast Time Series

Changing the Model if needed

Comparison between Historical and Forecast Series

Step 3. Rule-Based Forecast Modification

Forecast Time Series Historical Streamflow Time Series Average Snow Budget June-November Average SOI index

Divide Input-Output Space into Fuzzy Regions

Generate Fuzzy Rules from Given Data

Forecast Modification using the Rule Based System (Verification)

Assign a weight to each rule based on the intersection of membership functions

Calculate the Degree of Fulfillment for Each Rule

Fuzzy Membership Functions for Snow and Forecast Error Index

1

0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Average snow water equivalent depth membership function

0 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 2.0

Error index membership function

Model Verification
500

seasonal streamflow (BGal)

450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

1983 1985 1986 1987 1988 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Actual ARIMA Modified with ENSO Modified without ENSO

Second Season
Dec.-Feb.

Results
Modified forecasts considering ENSO signals for the third season are as good as the official forecast for Salt River. In 42 percent of the analyzed years modified forecasts have been better than official forecasts. Significant improvement of the statistical forecasts for the third season (30 percent) was achieved by the proposed method when considering ENSO climate signals. Only in 7 percent of the seasons the algorithm was not able to improve or sustain the statistical streamflow forecast.

Environmental Water Demand

An environmental water demand (EWD) is the water regime required to sustain the ecological values of an aquatic ecosystem at a low level of risk. If this water requirement is adopted, then it is likely that a water body will: Be healthy. Look after the needs of animals and plants Maintain its biodiversity.

Steps for Identifying Environmental Water Requirements

uses, river and estuarine health on current water priorities. management planning indicators, and water

1. Prioritize sub-basins for assessment using information

2. Consult basin stakeholders and relevant scientific important values for each sub-basin experts to determine of ecosystem, recreation, aesthetics, in the categories physical landscape and consumptive/nonconsumptive use values 3. Assess environmental water requirements using the most appropriate scientific methodology on a catchment basis.

Streamflow Modeling and Forecasting

Streamflow Modeling Module

Streamflow Forecasting Module

Demand Forecasting Models

Deterministic Components:
1.

Population Changes
1. 2.

Population Forecasting Models (Long-term and Sort-term) Multiple Regression Analysis

2.

Price and Economic Incentives

1. 2.

Analysis of Price Elasticity Time Series Analysis

3.

Hydraulic Characteristics of the Water Distribution Network

1.

Hydraulic Modeling of the Water Distribution Network

Demand Forecasting Models

In order to incorporate the deterministic parameters in the long-term demand forecasting usually different scenarios based on the optimistic and pessimistic probable conditions are considered. These scenarios are defined based on the probable range of: 1. Migration 2. Birth Rate 3. Death Rate 4. Economic Policies and Incentives 5. Other Factors

Demand Forecasting Models

Stochastic Components:
1.

Climate Variations
1. 2.

Univariate AR, ARMA, and ARIMA Models Multivariate AR, ARMA, and ARIMA Models

Demand= f (population, price, standards, past use, etc.) + g(climate variations, )