GSM 3G Market Update 03 2008

GSM/3G MARKET UPDATE
March 11, 2008

Global mobile Suppliers Association
www.gsacom.com
Download this document and updates at www.gsacom.com
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www.gsacom.com GSM/3G Market Update - March 11, 2008
Global mobile Suppliers Association 2008 Slide no. 1/50
About GSA - Global mobile Suppliers Association

- representing GSM/EDGE/WCDMA suppliers globally
GSA is the representative body for the GSM/3G supplier industry, bringing together all views on GSM/EDGE/WCDMA-HSPA Objectives 4to strengthen promotion of GSM world-wide in new and existing markets 4to support operators and promote the evolution of GSM as the platform for delivery of 3G multimedia services
The leading GSM/3G suppliers world-wide are members of GSA Aeroflex, AnyDATA Inc., Broadcom, Business Logic Systems, Comsys Communication & Signal Processing, EDO-EVI, Ericsson, Hewlett Packard, LSI Logic Corporation, Motorola, Nokia Siemens Networks, NXP Semiconductors, Panasonic, Qualcomm Inc., Radixs, Talking Eye, Telcordia .. representing solutions providers, GSM, EDGE, WCDMA-HSPA infrastructure, devices, OSS, apps developers, billing, revenue assurance, semiconductor software design/platforms Interested in joining? Benefits, details at www.gsacom.com/about/join.php4
www.gsacom.com GSM/3G Market Update - March 11, 2008 Global mobile Suppliers Association 2008 Slide no. 2/50
GSA Activities
4Deliver market facts, intelligence & data objectively for the mobile industry 4Facilitate networking/dialogue cross-industry for information exchange 4Advise policy-makers on most favourable conditions for market development 4Support for mature markets and new growth markets 4Inform media & analysts about key milestones, drivers, developments, trends 4Organize high-level interaction with GSM/3G operators worldwide 4Produce Opinion Papers and Information Papers to broaden understanding and acceptance of the key issues 4Delivery at global & regional level: Africa, Americas, APAC, Europe, India, Russia 4GSA is a Market Representation Partner in 3GPP 4Global co-operation with, and support to, other key organisations including COAI, ETSI, the European Commission, the GSM Association, ICU, and ITU
GSA website www.gsacom.com
Visitors from 186 countries Highly targeted website users community, increasing 500/month
Visitors to the site from 186 countries
Average 10,000 document downloads/month RSS newsfeed http://www.gsacom.com/rss/gsanews.php4
Thousands of regular GSA website users: analysts, media, regulators, governments, manufacturers, services/applications developers, content providers, including 2,400 representatives from the majority of network operators
Mobile site http://gsacom.mobi

Cited by dotMobi organization as a showcase site which set the standard for the mobile web http://mtld.mobi/node/531
Fast Facts
Download this chart at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4
Over 1.1 billion GSM, WCDMA and HSPA subs in commercial HSPA-enabled networks globally
The GSM technology family embraces GPRS, EDGE, WCDMA-HSPA all open 3GPP standards
2.844 billion GSM, WCDMA subs Q4 07 586 million subscriptions added in 2007 GSM, WCDMA has 86.6% market share Q4 07 (2.7% gain in market share in 2007) 179 million WCDMA subs including HSPA end 2007 Over 75% of 450 + commercial GPRS operators globally committed to EDGE 345 GSM/EDGE network commitments in 158 countries; 290 network launches, 136 countries 700 + GSM/EDGE devices launched (October 2007) Most WCDMA-HSPA networks combine with EDGE for service continuity, best user experience
Network deployments, devices data source: GSA surveys Mobile subscribers data source: Informa Telecoms & Media
211 3G/WCDMA operators launched in 91 countries = 72% share of 293 commercial 3G networks 800 + WCDMA user devices launched, 90 + suppliers 220 HSDPA network commitments in 92 countries, including 185 commercial launches in 80 countries 103 HSDPA networks launched in Europe 87.6% i.e. 7 out of 8 live WCDMA operators also launched HSDPA 403 devices launched by 80 suppliers (Oct 2007) 75 devices support tri-band 850/1900/2100 116 HSDPA operators launched 3.6 Mbps (peak) or higher in 58 countries = 62.7% of live HSDPA operators. 147 HSDPA devices support 3.6 Mbps 38 operators launched 7.2 Mbps (peak); 63 devices 34 HSUPA network launches; 24 more HSUPA network commitments; 33 HSUPA devices launched
News, recent surveys from GSA
3G/WCDMA-HSPA Fact Sheet March 10, 2008 http://www.gsacom.com/gsm_3g/wcdma_databank.php4#3G_WCDMA_Fact_Sheet 3G/WCDMA Launches Worldwide March 7, 2008 http://www.gsacom.com/gsm_3g/wcdma_databank.php4# HSDPA Operator Commitments survey March 7, 2008 http://www.gsacom.com/gsm_3g/wcdma_databank.php4#HSDPA_Operator_Commitments 3G Applications and Services: Europe Parts 1 and 2 http://www.gsacom.com/gsm_3g/surveys.php4
3G Applications and Services
New GSA survey series

Highlights good examples of 3G services from operators around the world in a number of categories: mobile broadband, mobile advertising, social networking, place shifting and mobile search. This first survey looks at services and applications from mobile network operators in Europe. Part 1 covers Finland, Germany, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and UK. Part 2 covers Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, The Netherlands, Portugal, Switzerland, and UK Research for the survey was carried out by Ovum Ltd during Q3 2007 and is distributed by exclusive agreement with GSA. The surveys are available for download at www.gsacom.com/gsm_3g/surveys.php4
GSA Mobile Broadband Forum launched

http://www.gsacom.com/news/gsa_237.php4
A new, by-invitation program for mobile operators and GSA member organizations Focuses on mobile broadband success stories, business models, services, applications, technologies, growing traffic and ARPU, how to prepare the market and market experiences. First event in Hong Kong, December 2007, with operator participation/experiences from Asia Pacific and Europe. Presentations also given by 3GPP/ETSI and GSA member organizations
GSA website users with access to the Operators Zone or Members Zone may download the presentations www.gsacom.com/gsm_3g/mbf_hongkong.php4
GSA Mobile Broadband Forum meetings in 2008

Updates at www.gsacom.com/programs/mobilebroadband.php4
3 GSA Mobile Broadband Forum events planned in 2008:

4Berlin (May 19) 4Amsterdam* (September 16) 4South Africa (November)
*The GSA Mobile Broadband Forum in Amsterdam is produced in association with IIR www.iir-events.com/IIR-conf/Telecoms/EventView.aspx?EventID=1492
The global GSM success story
Subscriptions 31.12.07
APAC: 1.135 billion Western Europe: 530 million including over 80 million using WCDMA Latin America: 298 million Africa: 270.5 million including 3 million using WCDMA
GSM market share increased 2.7% in 2007

Russia: 169 million Brazil: over 90 million China & India combined growth of 143 million in 2007
GSM drives the growth in the major developing markets - BRIC
GSM success by region

Regional charts available at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4
172 million GSM subscriptions 66.6 million subs in 2007; 63.2% growth 78.9% market share (up from 76.7% end 06)
INDIA
6.25 million average monthly growth Q4 07
Worlds fastest growing mobile market

GSM success by region

Regional charts available at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4
90.5 million GSM subscriptions 27 million subs in 2007; 42.5% growth 76.5% market share (63.1% end 06)
BRAZIL
2.43 million average monthly growth Q4 07
Evolution of Mobile Systems to 3G

- Drivers: capacity, data speeds, lower cost of delivery for revenue growth
Q4 07 market share
TDMA TDMA GSM GSM PDC PDC

GSA - 2008
EDGE EDGE
EDGE EDGE Evolution Evolution
GPRS GPRS
3GPP Core Network
GSM/3G 86.6%
WCDMA WCDMA
HSDPA/HSUPA HSDPA/HSUPA
cdmaOne cdmaOne
2G
CDMA2000 CDMA2000 1x 1x
First Step into 3G
CDMA2000 CDMA2000 1x EV/DO Rev 1x EV/DO Rev 00 3G phase 1
EV/DO EV/DO EV/DO EV/DO Rev A Rev B Rev A Rev B Evolved 3G
cdma 11.6%
Application download times
3G/WCDMA-HSPA is driving the global uptake of Mobile Broadband services
WCDMA has over 72% market share of commercial 3G operators worldwide

211 Commercial WCDMA Operators in 91 countries
Source: GSA 3G/WCDMA-HSDPA Launches Worldwide March 7, 2008

Download charts at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4
91 countries with WCDMA operators
Source: GSA 3G/WCDMA-HSDPA Launches Worldwide March 7, 2008

Download map at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4
179 million WCDMA subscriptions 31.12.07

WCDMA (including HSPA) has two-thirds market share of global 3G subscriptions

HSPA - High Speed Packet Access

HSPA isSource: GSA survey - April 2, 2007industry the major leap forward for the
4WCDMA downlink evolution HSDPA High Speed Downlink Packet Access, is part of 3GPP/UTRAN-FDD Release 5 WCDMA specifications. 4HSDPA delivers similar boost for WCDMA as EDGE does for GSM/GPRS. 4HSDPA boosts air interface capacity by 2 times and delivers a 5-fold increase in downlink data speeds. 4HSDPA shortens round-trip time between network and terminals and reduces variance in downlink transmission delay. 4No new sites. Add-on solution (low impact on RAN: software upgrade) 4WCDMA enhanced uplink - HSUPA, is standardised in 3GPP Release 6
434 commercial HSUPA launches to date in 26 countries

HSPA capitalizes on 3G for mobile broadband
4Leverages existing assets 4Spectrum 4Subscriber base 4Network infrastructure (sites, radio, core network, transmission) 4Operation and Management system and staff 4Subscriber management systems (authentication, billing) HSPA is the new baseline for WCDMA operators globally
March 7, 2008 (GSA survey)
HSPA availability: 185 commercial HSDPA operators:

Download map at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4
220 HSDPA network commitments in 92 countries 185 HSDPA commercial operators in 80 countries 80 HSDPA operators launched in 2007; annual growth of 80% 87.6% (i.e. 7 out of 8) of commercial WCDMA operators, also launched HSDPA
GSA survey: HSDPA Operator Commitments www.gsacom.com

Commercial HSPA operators
Download charts at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4

103 HSPA networks in Europe
Download this summary at www.gsacom.com/programs/europe.php4

Downlink speed evolution
Source: GSA HSDPA Operator Commitments survey March 7, 2008

www.gsacom.com/gsm_3g/wcdma_databank.php4#HSDPA_Operator_Commitments
HSDPA devices are mainstream 403 HSDPA devices launched: 275 launched so far in 2007
GSA HSDPA Devices survey October 22, 2007 www.gsacom.com/gsm_3g/wcdma_databank.php4#HSDPA_Devices
80 suppliers
upgraded for 3.6 Mbps peak working for 7.2 Mbps peak working
147 devices support or can be
63 devices support or can be upgraded 121 HSDPA devices operate in 850 MHz 91 HSDPA devices operate in 1900 MHz 75 tri-band 850/1900/2100 MHz devices 33 HSUPA devices
Download chart at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4

70% of HSDPA devices support EDGE

HSDPA addresses all segments
Initially most user devices were PC cards/modems The majority (203) are consumer devices
See every device listed in the HSDPA Devices survey October 22, 2007 www.gsacom.com Download chart at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4
HSDPA user equipment categories

The theoretical peak rate with HSDPA is up to 14.4 Mbps 1.8 and 3.6 Mbps peak devices deliver typically 0.8 3.0 Mbps user experience
HSUPA High Speed Uplink Packet Access
Improves uplink capacity Increases uplink data throughput evolving to 5.8 Mbps peak Reduces latency Improves services (e.g. wireless gaming, VoIP) Enables new services
HSUPA: user devices

33 user devices launched support, or can be upgraded for,
HSUPA delivering 2.1 Mbps (peak)
HSUPA (High Speed Uplink Packet Access) complements HSDPA and provides benefits to the mobile network operator further capacity increases, enhanced throughput and coverage, and significantly reduces latency on the uplink HSUPA offers data speeds up to 5.76 Mbps (peak) on the uplink channel. Together with HSDPA, it means a huge stride in network performance
Evolved HSPA
Further uplink speed improvements will soon be available with Evolved HSPA, otherwise known as HSPA Evolution or HSPA+ systems HSPA Evolution will bring end-user data rates up to 40 Mbps in the near future, with the transmission of multiple parallel data streams to a single terminal using Multiple Input Multiple Output (MIMO) technologies. MIMO uses multiple transmit and receive channels and antennas to improve performance and throughput for radio signals to double downlink data speeds up to 28 Mbps. With further modifications, data rates can reach 40 Mbps on a 5 MHz carrier.
Mobile Broadband Price trends
For most operators, flat rate is the main approach to educate and encourage users to increase mobile data usage significantly Often a monthly limit is applied Simple and easy to understand
Mobile broadband pricing examples from Austria

3 Austria 3 Data 300 3 Data 3 GB 3 Data Fair T-Mobile Austria Fairclick Free Fairclick Basic Fairclick Smart Fairclick 3 customers under age of 27 get 20% off monthly fee roaming at no extra cost on all 3 networks except Indonesia
7 Euro/month fr 300 MByte, 0,10 Euro per extra MByte 19 Euro/month for 3 GByte, 0,10 Euro per extra MByte 24 Euro/month for 15 GByte, 0,10 Euro per extra MByte
10 Cents per MByte, no monthly fee 15 Euro/month for 500 MByte, 0,10 Euro per extra MByte 20 Euro/month for 3 GByte, 0,10 Euro per extra MByte 25 Euro/month for 10 GByte, 0,10 per extra MByte
Mobilkom Austria 10 Euro/month for 300 MBytes, 0,25 Euro for every extra MByte A1 Breitband 300 A1 Breitband 3 GByte 20 Euro/month for 3 Gbyte, 0,10 Euro for every extra MByte A1 Breitband 5 GByte 30 Euro/month for 5 Gbyte, 0,10 Euro for every extra MByte Mobilkom Prepaid packages B-Free Breitband Start Package: 130 Euro, contains SIM-card, USB Modem, 1 Gbyte of data B-Free Breitband 20: 0,20 Euro per Mbyte B-Free Breitband 1 Gbyte: 20 Euro for 1 GByte valid for 30 days B-Free Breitband 150 Mbyte: 10 Euro for 150 MByte valid for 30 days Research by Daniel AJ Sokolov January 2008
HSPA: market feedback
Positive user experience of services delivered with HSDPA Significant network traffic growth with HSDPA ARPU growth with HSDPA
See on the website Mobile Broadband Success Stories using HSPA www.gsacom.com
HSPA will continue to dominate mobile broadband
Alternative technologies contribute 6 percent New alternative technologies will contribute just 6 percent of mobile broadband users globally by 2010 Technologies such as mobile WiMAX and UMTS TDD will lead the alternative technology camp, but enhancements to existing technologies, including HSPA and EV-DO Revision A+ will comprise the bulk of the market and are where the money lies in the short-term Strategy Analytics "Beyond 3G: Looking for True Mobile Broadband November 2006
HSPA set to exceed 56 million by end-2008
July 12, 2007: www.telecoms.com Informa Telecoms & Media predicts there will be over 56.8 million HSPA subscribers worldwide by end 2008 The take-up of HSPA is faster than initial WCDMA growth, driven by the success of HSPA-enabled PC cards, USB modems and HSPA-capable phones. Whereas it took almost 3 years for WCDMA to exceed 7 million, with HSPA this figure was reached in 15 months.

Clear trend for combining EDGE and WCDMA-HSPA for 3G services delivery
The majority of WCDMA-HSPA networks are complemented with GSM/EDGE for service continuity in areas where WCDMA-HSPA coverage is not available, to ensure that users will receive a good experience of most 3G services EDGE delivers typical user data speeds up to 300 kbps peak 138 out of 220 HSDPA deployments (62.7%) combine with GSM/EDGE 107 of 185 commercially launched HSDPA operators (57.8%) also launched EDGE Over 70% of HSDPA user devices also support GSM/EDGE
EDGE global, mature technology

Over 75% of 450 + commercial GPRS networks globally have committed to EDGE
345 GSM/EDGE commitments in 158 countries 290 commercial GSM/EDGE networks in 136 countries Over 700 GSM/EDGE devices launched in the market
Source: GSA EDGE Fact Sheet January 10, 2008

Commercial mobile operators

EDGE Evolution
Evolved GERAN - Drivers and goals
Operators stress service continuity as being very important WCDMA evolution to HSDPA is a key driver for EDGE Evolution (GERAN Evolution) since reducing the performance gap is the priority EDGE Evolution - potential benefits: 2 3 times increase in EDGE bit rates 2 3 times spectral efficiency gain (for voice & data capacity) Halve the latency (roundtrip time) All achieved with low impact on the GSM/EDGE network Standardisation in 3GPP Release 7 Leading manufacturers have committed to commercialisation See GSA Information Paper EDGE Evolution for more details
www.gsacom.com/gsm_3g/info_papers.php4
Peak speeds of EDGE Evolution features with 3GPP Release 7 specifications
DL speed up to 1.2 Mbps per user expected initially; standard enables up to 1.9 Mbps per user Dual Carrier first phase implementation 10 TSL per user; standard enables up to 16 TSL per user EGPRS-2 DL (REDHOT) level B maximum 118.4 kbps per TSL
UL speed up to 474 kbps per user, standard enables up to 947 kbps per user EGPRS-2 UL (HUGE) level B with maximum 118.4 kbps per TSL Peak implementation today 4 TSL per user; standard enables up to 8 TSL per user
3GPP Release Roadmap
Release 99: Complete. Includes enhancements to GSM/GPRS (EDGE). Support for GSM/EDGE/GPRS/WCDMA radio-access networks. Most deployments today use R99 Release 4: Complete. MMS support. Efficient interconnection of CN infrastructure over IP networks Release 5: Complete. Delivered HSDPA and first phase of IMS. Half of WCDMA network deployments now include the HSDPA evolution Release 6: Complete. Includes HSUPA, enhanced multimedia support using Multimedia Broadcast/Multicast Services (MBMS), performance specifications for advanced receivers, WLAN integration, and evolution of the IP Multimedia System IMS Release 7: On-going. Enhanced GSM data functionality. Optimisation/fine tuning of earlier releases for performance enhancements, improved spectral efficiency, increased capacity, and better resistance to interference. Also provides optimisations for VoIP over HSPA
Rel 99 1999 2000
Rel 4 2001
Rel 5 2002 2003
Rel 6 2004 2005 2006
Rel 7
3GPP LTE Long Term Evolution

3GPP LTE is an evolution of the GSM/UMTS (WCDMA, HSPA) systems family, and specifies the next generation mobile broadband access system LTE targets capacity and data rate enhancements to support new services and features requiring higher levels of capability and performance. Data rates will be significantly higher for downlink and uplink paths, with the necessary network architecture and technology enhancements The new system includes support of a full IP-based network and harmonization with other radio access technologies Download the chart at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4 LTE Information Paper http://www.gsacom.com/gsm_3g/info_papers.php4
LTE Standard Approved
LTE Terrestrial Radio Access Network technology specifications have been approved and are now under change control, leading to their inclusion in the forthcoming 3GPP Release 8. This announcement confirmed that LTE is firmly on track, and will deliver competitive capacity and data throughput enhancements, to build on the huge momentum and market success of mobile broadband services and applications enabled today by WCDMA-HSPA systems see http://www.gsacom.com/news/gsa_240.php4 4Several manufacturers have demonstrated LTEs super fast data speed capabilities. A recent multi-user field trial of LTE in an urban environment achieved mobile downlink data rates of up to 173 Mbps 4The LTE/SAE (Long Term Evolution/System Architecture Evolution) Trial Initiative (LSTI) has confirmed that LTE will deliver high levels of data throughput both for stationary and mobile devices. And specifically, that the LTE physical layer performance targets with regards to stationary and on-the-move peak data rates can be achieved
Key events supported by GSA in 2008

More information/links at www.gsacom.com/events/index.php4
Exclusive for Operators Zone and Members Zone users
Wireless Analysts Reports Deutsche Bank weekly industry bulletin: Signals to Noise (S2N)
Log in (Members Zone/Operators Zone users only)
www.gsacom.com/members/deutsche_bank_industry_bulletin.php4
GSM/3G resources at www.gsacom.com

Use the RSS feed to keep updated on whats new at www.gsacom.com
Register as a site user at www.gsacom.com

4Market/technology updates on GSM, EDGE, WCDMA-HSPA 4Information Papers and Opinion Papers 4Statistics subscriber numbers, charts, trends 4GSM/3G Network Update 4Monthly GSM/3G Market Update 4Newsletters, press releases, advisories
Fixed and mobile operators gain access to additional resources in the Operators Zone
4 Invites to seminars, networking events, etc 4Market & technology papers, surveys 4Market intelligence 42400+ registered users from the majority of operators worldwide
3 Ways to receive news/updates from GSA
Regular visits to www.gsacom.com
2 3
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RSS newsfeed http://www.gsacom.com/rss/gsanews.php4
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GSM 3G Market Update 03 2008

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GSM/3G MARKET UPDATE

March 11, 2008

GSA Secretariat Tel +44 1279 439 667 info@gsacom.com

www.gsacom.com GSM/3G Market Update - March 11, 2008

Global mobile Suppliers Association 2008 Slide no. 1/50

About GSA - Global mobile Suppliers Association

www.gsacom.com GSM/3G Market Update - March 11, 2008

Global mobile Suppliers Association 2008 Slide no. 3/50

GSA website www.gsacom.com

Visitors to the site from 186 countries

Average 10,000 document downloads/month RSS newsfeed http://www.gsacom.com/rss/gsanews.php4

Mobile site http://gsacom.mobi

www.gsacom.com GSM/3G Market Update - March 11, 2008

Download this chart at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4

News, recent surveys from GSA

www.gsacom.com GSM/3G Market Update - March 11, 2008

Global mobile Suppliers Association 2008 Slide no. 6/50

3G Applications and Services

New GSA survey series

GSA Mobile Broadband Forum launched

GSA Mobile Broadband Forum meetings in 2008

3 GSA Mobile Broadband Forum events planned in 2008:

The global GSM success story

GSM market share increased 2.7% in 2007

www.gsacom.com GSM/3G Market Update - March 11, 2008

Global mobile Suppliers Association 2008 Slide no. 10/50

GSM drives the growth in the major developing markets - BRIC

www.gsacom.com GSM/3G Market Update - March 11, 2008

Global mobile Suppliers Association 2008 Slide no. 11/50

GSM success by region

6.25 million average monthly growth Q4 07

Worlds fastest growing mobile market

GSM success by region

2.43 million average monthly growth Q4 07

www.gsacom.com GSM/3G Market Update - March 11, 2008

Global mobile Suppliers Association 2008 Slide no. 13/50

Evolution of Mobile Systems to 3G

TDMA TDMA GSM GSM PDC PDC

EDGE EDGE Evolution Evolution

3GPP Core Network

CDMA2000 CDMA2000 1x EV/DO Rev 1x EV/DO Rev 00 3G phase 1

EV/DO EV/DO EV/DO EV/DO Rev A Rev B Rev A Rev B Evolved 3G

Global mobile Suppliers Association 2008 Slide no. 14/50

Application download times

www.gsacom.com GSM/3G Market Update - March 11, 2008

Global mobile Suppliers Association 2008 Slide no. 15/50

3G/WCDMA-HSPA is driving the global uptake of Mobile Broadband services

www.gsacom.com GSM/3G Market Update - March 11, 2008

Global mobile Suppliers Association 2008 Slide no. 16/50

WCDMA has over 72% market share of commercial 3G operators worldwide

Download this chart at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4

211 Commercial WCDMA Operators in 91 countries

Source: GSA 3G/WCDMA-HSDPA Launches Worldwide March 7, 2008

91 countries with WCDMA operators

Source: GSA 3G/WCDMA-HSDPA Launches Worldwide March 7, 2008

179 million WCDMA subscriptions 31.12.07

Download this chart at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4

WCDMA (including HSPA) has two-thirds market share of global 3G subscriptions

Download this chart at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4

HSPA - High Speed Packet Access

434 commercial HSUPA launches to date in 26 countries

HSPA capitalizes on 3G for mobile broadband

www.gsacom.com GSM/3G Market Update - March 11, 2008