Personality and Individual Differences xxx (2011) xxxxxx

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Personality and Individual Differences

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A life history model of the LynnFlynn effect

Michael A. Woodley
University of London, School of Biological Sciences, Royal Holloway, Egham, Surrey TW20 0EX, United Kingdom

a r t i c l e

i n f o

a b s t r a c t
A new life history model of the LynnFlynn effect is presented based on the idea that life history speed is primarily associated with a trade-off between positive manifold strength (fast life history) and differentiation with respect to abilities (slow life history) rather than individual differences in levels of g (which instead function as a tness indicator and are associated with pleiotropic mutation load). Given that the LynnFlynn effect concerns only the non-g variance in test scores it is proposed that it is associated with ability differentiation resulting from recent population-level shifts towards slower life history speed as a consequence of the mitigation of sources of environmental unpredictability and harshness, such as pathogen stress and malnourishment. Smaller family sizes are also signicant as not only do they result from slower life history speed, but they might also potentiate further life history slowing. Education may also slow life history, furthermore it is involved in the cultivation of specialized patterns of cognitive abilities. Empirical predictions are made in the discussion, which if tested, could present denitive evidence either conrming or refuting the life history model. 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Article history: Received 14 January 2011 Received in revised form 10 March 2011 Accepted 16 March 2011 Available online xxxx Keywords: Ability differentiation CDIE hypothesis Life history LynnFlynn effect Secular gains

1. Introduction Richard Lynn was the rst to bring the phenomenon of massive gains on standardized intelligence tests over time to widespread attention with a study published in Nature involving Japanese cohorts (Lynn, 1983). Subsequent research by Flynn (1984, 1987) expanded the scope of the search for these gains and found that they are occurring in a number of industrialized countries at a rate of approximately three points a decade. The effect has been christened the Flynn effect (Herrnstein & Murray, 1994), however Rushton (1999) has argued that the effect should be termed the LynnFlynn effect, owing to the equally important contributions of both researchers to its elucidation. Congruent with Rushtons suggestion, the effect shall here be referred to as the LynnFlynn effect. A number of studies have found that the effect manifests itself most strongly on uid intelligence subcomponents, e.g. non-verbal abilities (Colom, Andres-Pueyo, & Juan-Espinosa, 1998; Emanuelsson, Reuterberg, & Svensson, 1993; Emanuelsson & Svensson, 1990; Flynn, 1987, 1998; Lynn & Hampson, 1986, 1989; Teasdale & Owen, 2000), these differential gains have in turn led to debate concerning whether or not the effect concerns g (Colom, JuanEspinosa, & Garca, 2001; Flynn, 1999a, 1999b, 2000; Jensen, 1998; Must, Must, & Raudik, 2003; Rushton, 1999, 2000a). A recent study by Rushton and Jensen (2010), has examined this issue in some detail. They found that g-loadings and inbreeding depression

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scores on the 11 subtests of the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children correlated either signicantly negatively or not at all with secular gains due to the LynnFlynn effect, which reinforces the idea that the effect is not g-associated. Another relevent nding is that the assumption of factorial invariance with respect to cohorts (a necessary criterion for the invocation of g in the Lynn Flynn effect) is untenable (Wicherts et al., 2004). The idea that the LynnFlynn effect is not occurring on g has raised another issue, namely to what extent might the effect simply be an artifact stemming from factors such as heightened test sophistication or even the tendency for tests to loose their g-loading as a consequence of training, retesting and general familiarity (Brand, 1987, 1990; Brand, Freshwater, & Dockrell, 1989; Flynn, 1990; Jensen, 1996; Rodgers, 1998; Rushton & Jensen, 2010)? Still, others maintain that the effect is associated with real world increases in intelligence (Howard, 1999, 2001). In this study, after a brief review of the various major proposed causes of the LynnFlynn effect, the recently developed cognitive differentiationintegration effort hypothesis (Woodley, 2010) will be used to propose a new causative model, namely that it results from the operation of environmental factors (such as the diminution of pathogen stress, improvements in nutrition, and education) which have acted to slow the life history speeds of populations in such a way that favors the investment of effort into the development of specic cognitive abilities. The model will be used to (a) account for why the effect appears to be associated exclusively with non-g variance, (b) explain the contradiction between secular gains in IQ and losses due to dysgenesis, and (c) address the issue of what the effect actually measures. In the nal section the

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implications of this model will be discussed along with empirical predictions. 2. The causes of the LynnFlynn effect Amongst those who maintain that the effect is associated with real gains in cognitive ability, a variety of causative theories have been proposed. Lynn (1989, 2009) has argued that the principal cause has been improvements in nutrition, as malnourishment especially with respect to micronutrients is associated with inhibited brain development. General improvements in the quality of education (Husn & Tuijnman, 1991; Teasdale & Owen, 1989; Tuddenham, 1948) have also been proposed as a prospective source of the effect, as has the idea that smaller families permit greater resource consolidation into fewer offspring (Zajonc & Mullally, 1997). Dickens and Flynn (2001) have proposed a social multiplier model, predicated upon the idea that the ambient cognitive background of a society exerts an enhancing effect on IQ through feedback. Wide scale literacy, access to the internet and computer games would be examples of the sorts of social multipliers that once in widespread usage, might raise the mean IQ of a population in such a way that leads to greater demand for yet more cognitively demanding sources of stimulus. Another theory is that heterosis (hybrid vigor) might be associated with gains in IQ (Mingroni, 2007). Recently pathogen stress has been found to be a signicant predictor of cross-national variation in cognitive ability. An implication of this is that pathogens attenuate the development of full IQ by commandeering bioenergetic resources ordinarily reserved for brain development into their own growth and tness. Measures aimed at eradicating pathogens or mitigating their effects at cross-national scales might therefore be behind the LynnFlynn effect (Eppig, Fincher, & Thornhill, 2010). Which of these theories are plausible? As the LynnFlynn effect does not concern g, heterosis can be ruled out as a signicant contributor owing to the fact that inbreeding depression on test scores and other genetic effects correlate with the g-loadings of tests, unlike secular gains (Rushton, 1999, 2000a; Rushton & Jensen, 2010). The social multiplier model suffers from a number of apparent shortcomings. The model has been interpreted as requiring largescale changes in the historical variance of IQ despite the fact that there is no evidence for such changes (Rowe & Rodgers, 2002). Also there is no indication given by the model as to the time scales over which social multipliers might exert their effects, which in turn impacts its predictive power. Do they operate across the life span of individuals for example or over larger population scales (Leohlin, 2002; cf Dickens & Flynn, 2002)? The pathogen stress, nutrition, family structure and education models do seem to be signicantly involved in real world observations of the LynnFlynn effect (e.g. Daley, Whaley, Sigman, Espinosa, & Neumann, 2003), thus presenting plausible reasons as to why cognitive abilities might have risen over time. In the subsequent sections, it will be shown how these are complimentary with respect to the novel hypothesis presented here. 3. The cognitive differentiationintegration effort hypothesis In human populations it has been found that measures of life history (the fundamental pattern of bioenergetic resource allocation and tradeoffs) combine to give rise to a latent factor termed K. This dimension captures individual differences in preferences towards the development of a fast life history, characterized by high mating effort versus a slow life history, characterized by high somatic effort (resources allocated to growth, repair, maintenance

and learning) and parenting effort. (Figueredo, Vsquez, Brumbach, & Schneider, 2004). Rushton (1985, 2000b) predicted that general intelligence forms part of the human life history matrix, with those oriented towards slow life histories possessing the highest g and those oriented towards fast life histories possessing the lowest. Research at the individual differences level has failed to nd consistent support for this however, with correlations between K and g typically being both very low magnitude and non-signicant (Gladden, Figueredo, & Jacobs, 2008; Sefcek, 2007; Sefcek & Figueredo, 2010). The cognitive differentiationintegration effort (henceforth CD IE) hypothesis is a model of cognitive development conceived as a theoretical explanation for how cognitive abilities and life history might be connected. The CDIE hypothesis is predicated upon the idea that there are two largely independent sources of genetic variance in general intelligence one source corresponds to Millers (2000a, 2000b) theory that the basic positive manifold arises through the action of pleiotropic mutations, and that individual differences in levels of g function as a tness indicator in sexual selection. The other source is associated with what could be termed horizontal variance in general intelligence characterized by a life history trade-off between positive manifold strength and the development of separate abilities. This manifests its self in ability differentiation/integration effects such as Spearamans Law of Diminishing Returns. The tradeoff concerns two hypothetical types of effort cognitive integration effort (CIE), associated with a strengthening of the manifold via the equal investment of bioenergetic resources (such as time, calories and cognitive real estate) into diverse abilities, and cognitive differentiation effort (CDE), associated with a weakening of the manifold via the unequal investment of resources into individual abilities. This tradeoff is independent of the genetic g detectable through the Jensen effect on the heritability of g, which appears to be largely impervious to differentiation/integration effects (Jensen, 2003). Variation in manifold strength in this model results from either equal or unequal investments of resources into abilities. CIE is associated with fast life history speed and may constitute a form of mating effort as by strengthening the manifold it may give rise to a heightened capacity to cope with situations requiring the coordination of diverse abilities, such as those that might be encountered in the short term mating market; CDE is associated with slow life history and may constitute a form of somatic effort as slower development permits the cultivation of specic abilities which gives rise to a capacity for ecological specialization in response to competition. Greater parenting effort may also result in the selective reinforcement of specic patterns of ability cultivation amongst offspring (Woodley, 2010). Evidence for the CDIE hypothesis comes from the observation that slower life history individuals such as those with autistic-like personalities exhibit less evenly balanced abilities (with a bias towards visuospatial ability) than faster life history individuals (Del Giudice, Angeleri, Brizio & Elena, 2010). This suggests that cognitive generalism vs. specialism might be a component of the human life history matrix. Thus far the hypothesis has not been comprehensively tested at the individual differences scale. Fig. 1 illustrates the simplied hierarchical relationship between sources of genetic variance unique to general tness (F) and life history (K), along with their connections to g and the CD-IE tradeoff. F and K are assumed to be modestly positively correlated (Sefcek & Figueredo, 2010), however there is much variance that is exclusive to each latent trait, indicating the operation of separate genetic pathways. It is also assumed that many environmental factors would simultaneously inuence both the level and composition of general intelligence through their shared developmental effects on general tness and life history. The degree to which an environmental factor could affect the level of g

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M.A. Woodley / Personality and Individual Differences xxx (2011) xxxxxx

Fig. 1. G1 and G2 represent sources of genetic variance in general intelligence unique to general tness (F) and life history (K). E represents sources of environmental variance, which may be common to both pathways. F is associated with individual differences in levels of genetic g, whereas K is associated with the tradeoff between CIE and CDE (Woodley, 2010) + indicates a positive association between variables, whereas - indicates a negative association.

would theoretically be much less than the degree to which it could affect the CDIE tradeoff, owing to the fact that genetic g has a much higher heritability than the non-g variance specic to cognitive abilities (Carroll, 1993; Jensen, 1998).

4. CDIE and the LynnFlynn effect As CDIE tradeoffs are hypothesized to be associated with non-g variance, they could be a source of the LynnFlynn effect. If this is the case then the effect should be associated with a secular decline in the strength of the positive manifold over time. Indeed, several studies have found evidence for just such a decline in a handful of countries (Juan-Espinosa, Cuevas, Escorial, & Garca, 2006; Kane, 2000; Kane & Oakland, 2000; Lynn & Cooper, 1993, 1994), which compliments the observation that the effect is associated with differential gains in abilities. As differentiation effects are associated with slower life history speeds in the CDIE hypothesis, this suggests that life history might have been slowing in the nations where the LynnFlynn effect has manifested its self. There is certainly evidence amongst Western nations of a slowing life history speed, as indicated by the shrinking size of Western families over the course of the last century (Cohen, 1981). Similarly there is evidence for a more recent global scale fertility decline in countries containing four fths of the worlds population (Caldwell, 2006). This is consistent with the observation that life history speed has a heritability of .65 (Figueredo et al., 2004), suggesting considerable exibility to environmental factors. Signicant environmental factors responsible for much of the life history speed change in certain developing countries and historically in the developed world might be pathogen stress and malnutrition. Pathogen outbreaks are both unpredictable (in terms of high variation in adult mortality) and harsh (in terms of absolute mortality), as are the effects of malnutrition (crop failures etc.). Fast life history speed is favored under such conditions as it makes sense to try and overshoot the carrying capacity as a way of coping with instability (Ellis, Figueredo, Brumbach, & Schlomer, 2009). Any factor therefore that reduces harshness and unpredictability (such as the eradication of disease, providing adequate nourishment etc.) would encourage the development of slower life history speed through lowering infant mortality, which in turn, with access to an appropriately cognitively stimulating environment (e.g. education), might permit the development of differentiated

abilities and therefore the LynnFlynn effect. Education may itself be a signicant source of slowing life history (especially amongst women) as it is associated with increased contraceptive usage and reductions in infant mortality (e.g. Grossman, 1972). Smaller families resulting from slower life history speed would further mitigate the effects of unpredictability and harshness by permitting consistent, high volume resource allocation into smaller numbers of offspring i.e. greater parental effort (Ellis et al., 2009). Whilst these factors may currently be operating in parts of the developing world, they may have already nished exerting their effect on the developed world. There is evidence from a handful of Western nations that the LynnFlynn effect has ceased and may even have gone into reverse in some instances (Flynn, 2009a; Shayer & Ginsburg, 2009; Sundet, Barlaug, & Torjussen, 2004; Teasdale & Owen, 2008). Perhaps this latter trend is being driven by the recently observed tendency towards faster life history speeds (as evidenced by increased fertility) amongst developed nations (Myrskyl, Kohler, & Billari, 2009). A tendency to invest effort equally throughout abilities (i.e. integration) would result in the development of jack of all trades masters of none ability proles. Amongst such individuals massive gains in specic abilities would appear to diminish giving rise to a secular decline in IQ. Another effect in need of mentioning is dysgenesis, which has been observed in the form of multi-generational declines in genotypic IQ in a number of Western countries (Lynn, 1996, 1998; Lynn & Harvey, 2008; Lynn & Van Court, 2004). Unlike the LynnFlynn effect, dysgenesis concerns changes in the levels of g (Meisenberg, 2010) and should therefore be unrelated to changes in life history speed. Looked at in this way, the two effects are not contradictory, as secular gains can occur on non-g variance simultaneously with respect to selection against genetic g.

5. Discussion The life history model of the LynnFlynn effect accounts for several observations. For example the association of the effect with the non-g variance in test scores makes sense in light of the idea that slower life history speed promotes effort allocation into the development of specic abilities. The theory is consistent with the pathogen stress, nutrition and family size models of the effect, as pathogen stress and infrequent access to adequate nutrition constitute forms of environmental unpredictability and harshness, which may (along with other factors) combine to favor the development of fast life history speed. In mitigating the effects of these factors, the development of slower life history speed is favored, which is reected in declining absolute fertility, lower infant mortality and shrinking family size. These factors combine through positive feedback to favor yet further decreases in life history speed. The combination of slow life history and access to appropriate sources of cognitive stimulation, such as education permits individuals to develop specic abilities via allocations of differentiation effort. The LynnFlynn effect and dysgenesis can co-occur as they concern two different sources of variance in tests of cognitive ability. The life history model also suggests that the LynnFlynn effect actually measures something tangible rather than simply constituting a measurement artifact. Flynn (2009b) has argued that IQ scores reect individual differences in adaptation to modernity by which he means the tendency (especially since the Second World War) for individuals to think abstractly rather than practically. Flynn may be correct where secular gains in non-g sources of variance on tests are concerned. The adaptation to modernity theory makes sense in light of the life history model presented here, as many aspects of modernity (such as adequate nutrition,

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M.A. Woodley / Personality and Individual Differences xxx (2011) xxxxxx Caldwell, J. C. (2006). The globalization of fertility behavior. Demographic Transition Theory, Part II, 249271. Carroll, J. B. (1993). Human cognitive abilities: A survey of factor-analytic studies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Cohen, Y. A. (1981). Shrinking households. Society, 18, 4852. Colom, R., Andres-Pueyo, A., & Juan-Espinosa, M. (1998). Generational IQ gains: Spanish data. Personality and Individual Differences, 25, 927935. Colom, R., Juan-Espinosa, M., & Garca, L. F. (2001). The secular increase in test scores is a Jensen effect. Personality and Individual Differences, 30, 553559. Daley, T. C., Whaley, S. E., Sigman, M. D., Espinosa, M. P., & Neumann, C. (2003). IQ on the rise: The Flynn effect in rural Kenyan children. Psychological Science, 14, 215219. Deary, I. J. (2001). Intelligence: A very short introduction. Oxford: Oxford University Press. 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medical care etc.) may have slowed the life history speeds of populations. Furthermore education instills into individuals abstract models of how the world works, and through investments of time, permits those with the necessary predisposition (i.e. slow life history speed) to cultivate specic abilities. Similarly, the process of modernization has been accompanied by increasing divisions of labor. The specic patterns of cognitive diversity amongst those with slow life histories may therefore be a direct response to the increasing demand for division of labor. The LynnFlynn effect can therefore be accurately described as an adaptation to modernity, albeit one that has been mediated by slowing life history speed. 5.1. Predictions Three major predictions arise from the life history model of the LynnFlynn effect: (i) At the individual differences scale it is predicted that samples of the same age, but sourced from later born cohorts should exhibit not only differentiation with respect to abilities relative to those sourced from cohorts born earlier, but should possess slower life history speed also. The latter should account for the majority of the variance in the former. (ii) In countries where life history speed is accelerating or staying constant anti-LynnFlynn effects or no secular gains/ losses will be detectable. The LynnFlynn effect is therefore predicted to be restricted to countries in which life history speed has been slowing. This can be investigated through a comparative analysis of secular gains or losses experienced by countries with cross-temporal variation in life history speed indicators, such as those that comprise Templers (2008) K super-factor. (iii) Cross-cultural measures of nutrition, education, pathogen stress and family size would be expected to load on the K super factor, indicating a latent life history connection between these proposed causes of the LynnFlynn effect. 5.2. Conclusion Testing the above predictions would provide signicant evidence either in favor of or against the life history model of the LynnFlynn effect. This model has the potential to make sense of a phenomenon that has been described as ofcially mysterious (Deary, 2001, p. 112), furthermore if slowing life history speed is the primary factor associated with secular gains, and if these represent a form of adaptation to modernity, then it has the potential to not only better shape policies designed to enhance cognitive abilities via environmental treatments, but also to better inform on the limitations of such approaches. Acknowledgements I would like to thank James R. Flynn for his time in reviewing this manuscript, and Marco Del Giudice for additional comments. References
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