Emergency Manager Severe Weather Briefing February 23, 2012---Page 1

In this packet: Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Friday. Damaging winds would be the main threat. Severe weather is expected to be less widespread than what occurred this past Saturday.

Overview

Emergency Manager Severe Weather Briefing February 23, 2012---Page 2

A strong surface low was centered in central Missouri this afternoon, with a warm front draped to the east in the Ohio River Valley, and a cold front beginning to sweep southeast through the southern Plains. Ahead of the low, south to southwest winds were leading to moisture return along the Gulf coast. This is showing up in the form of low clouds across much of south Alabama, south Georgia, and north Florida today. This low will move into the eastern Great Lakes by Friday afternoon, and a cold front will sweep into the Southeast region. As the cold front interacts with increasing moisture from the south, showers, and a few thunderstorms, are expected to develop.

Timing
The cold front is expected to be northwest of our area around sunrise roughly along the Interstate-65 corridor. This front will then push eastward through the daytime hours, reaching Albany and Panama City by early afternoon, and Tallahassee by mid afternoon. The best chances for severe weather will be with any storm that manages to form along or ahead of the cold front. The showers and storms will have a tendency to fall behind the front with time, removing their access to the unstable air ahead of the front, and weakening them with time. The shaded regions therefore indicate when severe thunderstorms would be most likely: mid-to-late morning in southeast Alabama and adjacent parts of Georgia and the western Florida Panhandle, and the afternoon over most of the rest of our area.

Emergency Manager Severe Weather Briefing February 23, 2012---Page 3

Impacts
Severe Weather:
To the right is a graphic with the latest SPC Severe Weather Outlook probabilities. The greatest probability of severe weather is currently forecast to the northeast of our forecast area in the eastern Carolinas. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with any severe storm. This is not expected to be a squall line with widespread wind damage. Sporadic damage to trees and power lines will be possible. Although less likely, a brief tornado or some marginally severe hail may also be possible.

Heavy Rain and Flooding:

Any lines of showers or storms along the front are expected to be fast-moving and last for a short duration of time at any one location. Therefore, rainfall amounts should average around one quarter inch across the area with minimal to no threat of flooding.

Surf and Rip Currents:

Strong onshore flow with southwesterly winds in the morning (prior to the front) and elevated seas may lead to surf heights along the Panhandle beaches of 3 to 4 feet. Stronger rip currents are also likely from Cape San Blas westward to Destin.

Post-Frontal Temperatures:
Although it will be cooler, we are not currently anticipating any freeze conditions this weekend.

Emergency Manager Severe Weather Briefing February 23, 2012---Page 4

Summary
Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible as a cold front sweeps southeast across our forecast area, mainly during the daytime. Any severe thunderstorms should be fairly isolated. Severe weather should be less widespread than what we saw last Saturday. Damaging winds are the main threat. Little to no risk of flooding. If you have any questions, please give our office a call at 850-942-8833 or on our toll free line at 800-598-4562 and ask to speak to a meteorologist. We are available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. You can also reach us on our Southern Linc phone at 1*77*284.