Capacity Projection 2009-2018

TURKISH ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION CORPORATION
RESEARCH PLANNING AND COORDINATION DEPARTMENT
TURKISH ELECTRICAL ENERGY

10-YEAR GENERATION CAPACITY PROJECTION
(2009 2018)
JUNE 2009
CONTENTS
I.
INTRODUCTION..............................................................................................................................2
II.
DEMAND ..........................................................................................................................................4
II.1. PEAK LOAD AND ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION OF TURKISH ELECTRICITY SYSTEM BETWEEN 1999-2008 ........ 4
II.2. ANALYSIS OF DAILY ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION FOR THE YEAR 2008 ............................................................ 5
30 SEPTEMBER 2 OCTOBER AND 8 11 DECEMBER WERE RELIGIOUS HOLIDAY IN 2008. ........................................ 8
II.3. LOAD DURATION CURVES FOR YEARS 2007 AND 2008....................................................................................... 9
II.4. DEMAND FORECASTS .......................................................................................................................................... 9
III.
ANNUAL GENERATION PROGRAMS AND REALIZATION FOR YEARS 2007-2008 .........14
III.1. YEAR 2007 ...................................................................................................................................................... 14

III.2. YEAR 2008 ...................................................................................................................................................... 15
IV.
TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM .....................................................................17
IV.1. TRANSMISSION SYSTEM ................................................................................................................................... 17

IV.2. DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM .................................................................................................................................... 18
IV.3. SYSTEM LOSSES .............................................................................................................................................. 19
V.
ASSUMPTIONS USED FOR THE GENERATION CAPACITY PROJECTION.........................20

V.1. DEMAND............................................................................................................................................................ 20
V.2. EXISTING GENERATING SYSTEM ....................................................................................................................... 20
V.3. CAPACITIES UNDER CONSTRUCTION, CAPACITIES GRANTED BY LICENCE BY THE END OF 2008 AND EXPECTED
TO BE IN SERVICE ON PLANNED DATES ...................................................................................................................... 21
VI.
RESULTS ........................................................................................................................................41
VI.I. CASE I A (HIGH DEMAND SCENARIO 1) ...................................................................................................... 41

VI.2. CASE I B (HIGH DEMAND SCENARIO 2)...................................................................................................... 50
VI.3. CASE II A (LOW DEMAND SCENARIO 1) ..................................................................................................... 60
VI.4. CASE II B (LOW DEMAND SCENARIO 2) ..................................................................................................... 69
VII.
COMPARISON OF RESULTS .......................................................................................................78
VIII.
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS.............................................................................80
IX.
ANNEXES .......................................................................................................................................82
ANNEX 1 : EXISTING SYSTEM (AS END OF YEAR 2008) .................................................................................. 83

ANNEX 2 : POWER PLANTS CONNECTED TO AND DISCONNECTED FROM THE POWER SYSTEM IN
2008.......................................................................................................................................................................... 96
ANNEX 3 : POWER PLANTS EXPECTED TO BE IN SERVICE BETWEEN 2009-2016 UNDER
CONSTRUCTION AND GRANTED BY LICENCE .............................................................................................. 98
ANNEX 3 (CONT.) : POWER PLANTS EXPECTED TO BE IN SERVICE BETWEEN 2009-2016 UNDER
CONSTRUCTION AND GRANTED BY LICENCE ............................................................................................ 101
X.
Abbrivations...................................................................................................................................104
I.
INTRODUCTION
This report has been prepared by Turkish Electricity Transmission Corporation (TEA)
according to the authorization on preparing 10-Year Generation Capacity Projection and
submitting for approval of Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EPDK) within the framework of
the Electricity Market Law (EPK) No: 4628 and the Grid Code to guide the market participants by
using demand projections estimated by Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ETKB).
Electricity demand forecasts to be used for Generation Capacity Projection should be
estimated by distribution companies. But, since the demand projections have not been completed
yet by distribution companies, according to the temporary article of the Grid Code, High Demand
and Low Demand series which have been revised by taking into consideration recent economic
crisis by Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ETKB) are used in this study.
The study period for the Generation Capacity Projection is 10 years and it covers the
period from 2009 to 2018. Supply-Demand Balance in terms of capacity and energy based on two
demand series is calculated by considering existing power plants, projects which are currently
under construction and new projects granted by licence foresighted to be in operation between
years 2009 and 2013 which are prepared as two different scenarios (Scenario 1 and Scenario 2)
according to the Progress Report of January 2009 by Energy Market Regulatory Authority
(EPDK). Related data to the project (average) and firm generation values for the next 10 years are
obtained from Electricity Generation Corporation (EA), Turkish Electricity Trade and
Contracting Corporation (TETA) and General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works (DS) for
existing and under construction power plants. Data for new projects granted by licence by end of
December 2008 have been obtained from EPDK and these data have been updated according to
the Progress Report of January 2009 published by EPDK. While calculating generation
capacities, average generating values of hydro power plants under normal hydro conditions and
firm generating values of hydro power plants under dry hydro conditions are considered
separately and Supply-Demand Balances together with energy reserves are calculated for both
demand series (High Demand and Low Demand) and for both scenarios prepared by EPDK and
related to the new projects foresighted to be in operation in this period (Scenario 1 and Scenario
2), and then results are submitted in this report as Result I-A, Result I-B and Result II-A, Result
II-B.
In the report, it is analyzed how to meet both demand series according to:
Existing plants,
Existing plants - under construction state owned plants
Existing plants - under construction state owned plants - licenced private sector plants as of
December 2008 and expected to be commissioned on planned dates and prepared as two
different scenarios in accordance with the Progress Reports of January 2009.
as end of 2008 for Turkish Electricity System.
New additional capacities are not considered in this study, because the Generation
Expansion Planning Study has not been updated yet.
In this capacity projection study covering the period 2009-2018, it is analyzed how to meet
the demand safely, i.e. with a suitable reserve, by taking into account existing plants, under
construction plants and licenced projects which are expected to be in service on planned date. In
the study, generating amounts of these power plants are considered as Average and Firm
2
generating capacities. The year in which the electricity shortage may occure is being determined
by this study, thus it is aimed to indicate the time of new additional capacity need to investors. .
In this study, the covering of demand according to average and firm generating amounts is
calculated by taking into account maintenance, planned outages, forced outages, hydro conditions
and rehabilitation schedule of power plants in the existing system. While calculating generating
capacity amount it is also assumed that there will be no deficit on fuel supply.
Assumptions for this Capacity Projection Report are the most important data. and
This section should be carefully examined and results should be evaluated by considering
these assumptions.
II.
DEMAND
In this section, electricity consumption development for the last decade (1999-2008), peak
load development in the same period, typical daily load curves for the year 2008, comparison of
actual consumption values with forecasts and demand projections of peak loads and electricity
consumptions carried out by Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ETKB) for the next 10
years (2009-2018) are submitted.
Electricity Market Law No: 4628 and the Turkish Electricity Grid Code require
Distribution Companies to prepare demand forecast for their region covering 10-year ahead.
Since Distribution Companies have not prepared the demand projections yet, the demand series
updated by taking into consideration the effects of the economic crisis starting in the year 2008 to
the electrical energy demand by ETKB are being used in this study as done before.
II.1. Peak Load and Electricity Consumption of Turkish Electricity System Between 19992008
Gross electricity consumption (equal to gross generation + import export) has reached to
190 TWh by annual increase of 8.8% for the year 2007, and to 198.1 TWh by annual increase of
4.2% for the year 2008. Net consumption (internal consumption, grid losses and power theft
included) is 155.1 TWh for the year 2007 and 161.9 TWh for 2008.
Table 1 and Figure 1 show instantaneous peak load and electricity consumption of Turkish
Power System by years. The peak load and the minimum load are 29249 MW and 11100 MW for
the year 2007 respectively. The peak load is 30517 MW and the minimum load is 10409 MW for
the year 2008.
Table 1 : Peak Load and Electricity Consumption of Turkish Electricity System Between
19992008
PEAK LOAD
(MW)
INCREASE
(%)
ELECTRICITY
CONSUMPTION
(GWh)
INCREASE
(%)
1999
18938
6,4
118485
3,9
2000
19390
2,4
128276
8,3
2001
19612
1,1
126871
-1,1
2002
21006
7,1
132553
4,5
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
21729
23485
25174
27594
29249
30517
3,4
8,1
7,2
9,6
6,0
4,3
141151
150018
160794
174637
190000
198085
6,5
6,3
7,2
8,6
8,8
4,2
Figure 1 : Peak Load and Electricity Consumption of Turkish Electricity System Between
19992018
65000
400000
60000
350000
55000
50000
300000
45000
MW
35000
200000
30000
25000
GWh
250000
40000
150000
20000
100000
15000
10000
50000
5000
0
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
TKETM (GWh)
SENARYO 1 ENERJ TALEB
SENARYO 2 ENERJ TALEB
PUANT YK (MW)
SENARYO 1 PUANT TALEP
SENARYO 2 PUANT TALEP
2018
II.2. Analysis of Daily Electricity Consumption for the Year 2008

Daily load curves of the maximum and minimum electricity consumption days in 2008,
are on Figure 2 and Figure 3, daily load curves for third Wednesday of each month are on Figure
4. The peak load is 30517 MW on the maximum consumption day in 2008.
Figure 2 : Loading order of power plants regarding type of primary energy resources on
the maximum consumption day of the year 2008 (July 23, 2008)
Figure 3 : Loading order of power plants regarding type of primary energy resources on
the minimum consumption day of the year 2008 (October 1, 2008)
Figure 4 : Daily Load Curves of Third Wednesday of Each Month in 2008
30 September 2 October and 8 11 December were Religious Holiday in 2008.
II.3. Load Duration Curves for Years 2007 and 2008

Figure 5 : Load Duration Curve for the year 2007
MW
2007 YILI TERTPLENM YK ERS

31000
30000
29000
28000
27000
26000
25000
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1
SAAT
Figure 6 : Load Duration Curve for the year 2008
II.4. Demand Forecasts

In this Generation Capacity Projection study, the demand series which are updated
according to the economic crisis affect by Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ETKB) are
used. While determining the demand series, it is excepted that in the year of 2009 a recession of
2% in the electrical energy demand will occure, in the years of 2010 and 2011 the increase of
electrical energy demand will be low because of the effect of the economic crisis and in the
following years the annual rates of the demand increase calculated by using of MAED Model on
May 2008 are used for both the demand series.
Comparison of former demand forecasts carried out by ETKB with actual values is
submitted on Table 2 and Table 3 1.
The Study Report on Long-Term Electricity Demand of Turkey, ETKB-APKK, 2004

9
Table 2 : Comparison of Former Demand Forecasts with Realized Values

TWh
Electricity
Consumption
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
24.6
26.3
28.3
29.6
33.3
36.4
40.5
44.9
48.4
52.6
56.8
60.5
67.2
73.4
77.8
85.5
94.8
105.5
114.0
118.5
128.3
126.9
132.6
141.2
150.0
160.8
174.6
190.0
198.0
Policies
1985
35.9
40.5
45.2
50.5
56.4
62.0
68.0
74.6
81.8
89.6
98.3
106.9
116.3
126.5
137.5
149.6
1987
51.6
57.9
65.0
71.7
79.0
87.2
96.1
105.9
115.6
126.8
138.9
152.3
166.8
177.0
189.3
202.5
216.5
231.5
247.6
264.8
283.1
1988/1
57.9
64.9
71.9
79.2
87.3
96.1
105.9
115.6
126.8
138.9
152.3
166.8
177.0
189.3
202.5
216.5
231.5
247.6
264.8
283.1
1988/2
55.5
61.8
68.2
75.3
83.1
91.8
101.2
110.6
120.6
131.6
143.5
156.5
165.3
178.1
191.9
206.7
222.7
239.9
258.5
278.5
5th Energy
Congress
1990
52.6
56.5
68.2
75.3
83.1
91.8
101.2
110.6
120.6
131.6
143.5
156.5
168.0
180.2
193.4
207.5
222.7
239.9
258.5
278.5
PROJECTIONS
1990/2
52.6
56.8
68.2
75.3
83.1
91.8
93.0
100.8
109.3
118.5
128.4
139.3
150.8
163.2
176.7
191.3
207.1
224.2
242.7
262.7
1993
71.7
80.4
88.4
96.8
106.0
116.1
127.2
139.3
150.7
163.2
176.7
191.3
207.1
224.2
242.7
262.7
6th Energy
Congress
1994
81.0
87.2
94.6
102.5
111.1
120.3
130.4
140.9
151.7
163.4
176.0
189.6
203.7
218.8
235.1
1996
2000
105.3
113.8
123.7
134.3
146.2
158.0
170.8
184.6
199.6
215.2
231.8
249.7
118.5
126.8
138.8
151.4
165.2
180.2
196.6
213.2
231.1
250.6
2002/1
128.3
127.3
133.4
151.5
172.1
195.5
211.0
227.8
245.9
2002/2
128.3
126.9
132.3
142.5
158.2
175.7
190.7
207.1
224.8
2004
160.5
176.4
190.7
206.4
Table 3 : Deviation Ratio of Demand Forecasts from Realization (%)

Policies
1985
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
-1.4
0.0
0.7
4.3
7.2
9.2
12.4
11.0
11.4
15.2
15.0
12.8
10.2
11.0
16.0
16.6
1987
6.6
10.1
14.4
18.5
17.6
18.8
23.5
23.9
21.9
20.2
21.8
28.5
30.0
39.5
42.8
43.5
44.3
44.0
41.8
39.4
43.0
1988/1
10.1
14.3
18.8
17.9
18.9
23.5
23.9
21.9
20.2
21.8
28.5
30.0
39.5
42.8
43.5
44.3
44.0
41.8
39.4
43.0
1988/2
5.5
8.8
12.7
12.1
13.2
18.0
18.4
16.7
14.3
15.4
21.1
22.0
30.3
34.4
36.0
37.8
38.5
37.4
36.1
40.7
5th Energy
Congress
1990
0.0
-0.5
12.7
12.1
13.2
18.0
18.4
16.7
14.3
15.4
21.1
22.0
32.4
35.9
37.0
38.3
38.5
37.4
36.1
40.7
PROJECTIONS
1990/2
0.0
0.0
12.7
12.1
13.2
18.0
8.8
6.3
3.6
3.9
8.4
8.6
18.8
23.1
25.2
27.5
28.8
28.4
27.7
32.7
11
1993
-2.3
3.3
3.4
2.1
0.5
1.8
7.3
8.6
18.8
23.1
25.2
27.5
28.8
28.4
24.7
32.7
6th Energy
Congress
1994
4.1
2.0
-0.2
-2.8
-2.5
1.5
1.6
11.0
14.4
15.8
17.3
17.9
16.7
15.2
18.7
1996
-0.2
-0.2
4.4
4.7
15.2
19.2
21.0
23.1
24.1
23.3
22.0
26.1
2000
0.0
-1.2
9.4
14.2
17.0
20.1
22.3
22.1
21.6
26.6
2002/1
0.0
0.3
0.6
7.3
14.7
21.6
20.8
19.9
24.2
2002/2
0.0
0.0
-0.2
1.0
5.5
9.3
9.2
9.0
13.5
2004
-0.2
1.0
0.4
4.2
Demand projection series (High Demand and Low Demand) together with annual increase
rates are given in Table 4, Figure 7 and Table 5, Figure 8 respectively.
Demand series for total Turkish Electricity System are on Table 4 and Table 5 and they are
gross values. Transmission and Distribution losses, internal consumptions of plants and power
theft are included in this gross demand. Further, embedded generation (connected to the
distribution system) and the generation of plants which are not subject to Load Dispatching
instructions are included too.
Table 4 : Demand Forecast (High Demand)
Year
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
PEAK LOAD
ELECTRICITY DEMAND
Increase
Increase
MW
GWh
(%)
(%)
29900
194000
31246
4,5
202730
4,5
33276
6,5
215907
6,5
35772
7,5
232101
7,5
38455
7,5
249508
7,5
41339
7,5
268221
7,5
44440
7,5
288338
7,5
47728
7,4
309675
7,4
51260
7,4
332591
7,4
55053
7,4
357202
7,4
Figure 7 : Demand Forecast (High Demand)
12
Table 5 : Demand Forecast (Low Demand)

PEAK LOAD
Year
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
MW
29900
31246
32964
35173
37529
40044
42727
45546
48553
51757
Increase
(%)
4,5
5,5
6,7
6,7
6,7
6,7
6,6
6,6
6,6
Figure 8 : Demand Forecast (Low Demand)
13
ELECTRICITY
DEMAND
Increase
GWh
(%)
194000
202730
4,5
213880
5,5
228210
6,7
243500
6,7
259815
6,7
277222
6,7
295519
6,6
315023
6,6
335815
6,6
III. ANNUAL GENERATION PROGRAMS AND REALIZATION FOR

YEARS 2007-2008
III.1. Year 2007
Total electricity generation of Turkey has been estimated to be around 187.7 TWh in the
year 2007 and so the consumption has been estimated around 185.2 TWh. The realization of the
consumption is 190 TWh by the increase of 8.8% according to the previous year. (Table 6). By
the end of the year 2007 total installed capacity is 40835.7 MW. The breakdown of total installed
capacity by utilities is on Table 7.
Table 6 : Annual Generation Program and Realization for 2007 (GWh)
UTILITIES
70766
2007
Revised
Annual
Program
75700
15485
101
19098
138
73839
216
18488
797
4141
4480
4268
14674
14455
14256
46013
16124
20430
116968
187733
44946
17927
16324
117368
193068
44970
19399
15325
117719
191558
540
743
864
188273
193811
192422
3093
2873
2422
185180
190938
190000
2007
Annual
Program
EA
ADA
AFFILIATED PARTNERSHIP OF EA
MOBILE PLANTS
POWER PLANTS UNDER TRANSFER
OF OPERATIONAL RIGHT CONTRACT
POWER PLANTS UNDER BUILTOPERATE-TRANSFER CONTRACT
POWER PLANTS UNDER BUILTOPERATE CONTRACT
GENERATION COMPANIES
AUTOPRODUCERS
NON-EA GENERATION
TOTAL GENERATION OF TURKEY
IMPORT
TURKEYS GENERATION + IMPORT
EXPORT
TOTAL CONSUMPTION OF TURKEY
14
2007
Realization
Table 7 : Breakdown of Installed Capacity (2007)

INSTALLED
CAPACITY
UTILITIES
MW
EA
ADA
POWER PLANTS UNDER TRANSFER OF
OPERATIONAL RIGHT CONTRACT
MOBILE PLANTS
POWER PLANTS UNDER BUILT-OPERATE
CONTRACT
POWER PLANTS UNDER BUILT-OPERATETRANSFER CONTRACT
AUTOPRODUCERS
TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY
THERMAL
HYDRO
THERMAL
THERMAL
HYDRO
THERMAL
HYDRO
THERMAL
8.690,9
11.350,3
3.834,0
30,0
111,3
620,0
30,1
262,7
THERMAL
6.101,8
THERMAL
WIND
HYDRO
THERMAL
WIND
HYDRO
THERMAL
WIND
HYDRO
THERMAL
WIND
HYDRO
1.449,6
17,4
982,0
3130,3
127,7
363,0
3.175,2
1,2
558,2
27.294,5
146,3
13.394,9
TOTAL
INSTALLED
CAPACITY
MW
20.041,2
3.834,0
141,3
650,1
262,7
6.101,8
2.449,0
3.621,0
3.734,6
40.835,7
III.2. Year 2008

In the year 2008, while the forecasted total electricity generation amount was 205.4 TWh,
the realization was 198.4 TWh by the increase of 3.5% from the previous year and the
consumption was 198.1 TWh by the increase of 4.2% while it was forecasted as 204.0 TWh.
(Table 8). By end of the year 2008, the total installed capacity is 41817.2 MW and the breakdown
of this total installed capacity to the utilities is on Table 9.
The power plants connected to the system and the decommissioning power plants in 2008
are listed in Annex-2.
15
Table 8 : Annual Generation Program and Realization for 2008 (GWh)
UTILITIES
EA
ADUA
MOBILE PLANTS
POWER PLANTS UNDER TRANSFER OF
OPERATIONAL RIGHT CONTRACT
POWER PLANTS UNDER BUILTOPERATE-TRANSFER CONTRACT
POWER PLANTS UNDER BUILT-OPERATE
CONTRACT
AUTOPRODUCERS
NON-EA GENERATION
TOTAL TURKEYS GENERATION
IMPORT
TURKEYS GENERATION + IMPORT
EXPORT
TOTAL TURKEYS CONSUMPTION
2008
Annual
Program
74731
482
20472
1800
2008 Yl
Realization
74919
320
22798
330
4203
4315
13758
13171
47219
25600
17118
130352
205383
600
205983
1983
204000
43342
23499
15724
123499
198418
789
199207
1122
198085
Table 9 : Breakdown of Installed Capacity (2008)

INSTALLED
TOTAL
CAPACITY INSTALLED
(MW)
CAPACITY
UTILITIES
EA
POWER PLANTS UNDER TRANSFER OF OPERATIONAL RIGHT
CONTRACT
MOBILE PLANTS
POWER PLANTS UNDER BUILT-OPERATE CONTRACT
POWER PLANTS UNDER BUILT-OPERATE-TRANSFER
CONTRACT
AUTOPRODUCERS
TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY
16
THERMAL
HYDRO
THERMAL
THERMAL
HYDRO
THERMAL
THERMAL
THERMAL
WIND
HYDRO
THERMAL
WIND
HYDRO
THERMAL
WIND
HYDRO
THERMAL
WIND
HYDRO
8.690,9
11.455,9
3.834,0
620,0
30,1
262,7
6.101,8
1.449,6
17,4
982,0
3.687,3
345,1
807,2
2.978,5
1,2
553,5
27.624,9
363,7
13.828,7
20.146,8
3.834,0
650,1
262,7
6.101,8
2.449,0
4.839,6
3.533,2
41.817,2
IV.
TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM
IV.1. Transmission System

Transmission system is the group of facilities starting from generation units to distribution
network and transmitting energy at the level of 36 kV Voltage Level. Components of transmission
system are:
Transmission lines and cables
Transmission Substations and Switching Centers (switchyards not containing step down
substations and transformers)
Turkish electricity transmission system, which is composed of 380 kV EHV lines and 154
kV HV lines, 380/154 kV Autotransformers and 154/MV step down substations, has been
equipped with the sufficient amount of serial and shunt capacitors due to their technical and
economic advantages. The transmission system has standard voltage level of 380 kV and 154 kV.
Interconnection lines connecting Turkish system to Georgia and to Armenia are at the level of 220
kV appropriate to other countries system.
Turkish generation and transmission system is being managed via 9 regional dispatching
centers (Adapazar, aramba, Keban, zmir, Glba, kitelli, Erzurum, ukurova and Kepez)
coordinated by the National Dispatching Center in Ankara (Glba). Operating of the power
system is being carried out by SCADA 2 and Energy Management System EMS 3 software.
SCADA system includes 380 kV lines and power plants greater than 50 MW. System operator
can manage every kind of system studies necessary for more quality, daily operating programs
and system frequency control.
The existing situation of the transmission system is summarized on Table 10 and Table 11.
Table 10 : Number of Transmission Substations and Capacities by primary voltage level
(Values for 2008)
380 kV
AMOUNT
174
154 kV
66 kV and lower
CAPACITY
CAPACITY
AMOUNT
(MVA)
(MVA)
33220
1010
55584
AMOUNT
57
CAPACITY
(MVA)
672
TOTAL
AMOUNT
1241
CAPACITY
(MVA)
89476
Table 11 : Length of Transmission Lines (km) ( Values for 2008)

380 kV
220 kV
154 kV
66 kV
TOTAL
14420.2
84.5
31653.9
508.5
46667.1
154 kV underground capacity cable length is 162.9 km

380 kV underground capacity cable length is 12.8 km
Transmission system is the main backbone of the electric system. Transmission System
investments are expensive and have long construction period.
2
3
Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition

Energy Management System
17
IV.2. Distribution System

The total length of Turkis electricity distribution system is 940922 km as end of the year
2008. The breakdown of distribution line lengths by voltage level is summarized on Table 12.
Table 12 : Length of Distribution Lines (km)
33 kV
15,8 kV
10,5 kV
6,3 kV
Other
0,4 kV
TOTAL
339691
30848
5573
7792
101
556918
940922
Resource : TEDA
The current situation of Turkish Electricity Distribution System is as end of the year 2008
outlined on Table 13.
Table 13 : Number of Distribution Substations and Capacities by primary voltage level
Secondary Voltage
Level
33 kV
15,8 kV
10,5 kV
6,3 kV
OTHER
Secondary Voltage
Level
15,8 kV
10,5 kV
6,3 kV
0,4 kV
TOTAL
AMOUNT
491
219
445
56
267.572
268782
CAPACITY (MVA)
4.090
3.528
3.344
268
71.663
82893
AMOUNT
31.233
31241
CAPACITY (MVA)
15
9.202
9220
AMOUNT
8.227
8228
CAPACITY (MVA)
7.019
7023
AMOUNT
8.100
8105
CAPACITY (MVA)
141
3.611
3752
AMOUNT
1.920
1930
CAPACITY (MVA)
TOTAL
OTHER
59
365
424
AMOUNT
491
219
451
74
317052
318286
CAPACITY (MVA)
4090
3528
3363
471
91859
103312
Resource : TEDA
18
IV.3. System Losses

Transmission system has been designed appropriate to European standards by considering
population density, location of supply resources and geografical conditions and the line losses
around 3% which is at the level of international performances. (Table 14)
Table 14 : Transmission Losses
YEAR
GWh
2001
2.8
3374.4
2002
2.7
3440.7
2003
2.4
3330.7
2004
2.4
3422.8
2005
2.4
3695.3
2006
2.7
4543.8
2007
2.5
4523.0
2008
2.3
4388.4
Resource : Turkish Electricity Generation-Transmission Statistics, TEA-APK
19
V.
ASSUMPTIONS USED FOR THE GENERATION CAPACITY

PROJECTION
V.1. Demand
In the Generation Capacity Projection study covering the period between years 2009 and
2018, the demand series which are updated according to the economic crisis started in the year
2008 by Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ETKB) are used. While determining the
demand series, it is excepted that in the year of 2009 a recession of 2% in the electrical energy
demand will occure, in the years of 2010 and 2011 the increase of electrical energy demand will
be low because of the current economic crisis effect. For the following years, the annual growth
rates of demand are being considered as two different scenerios, which are High Demand Series
and Low Demand Series. Both demand series are calculated by using MAED model. By assuming
no change on annual load curve characteristic for the study period, annual peak load values are
obtained by using annual demand growth rates.
V.2. Existing Generating System
Power plants connected to Turkish Power System and in operation as the end of the year
2008 are considered as existing system.
Maximum generating capacity called as Project Generation and reliable generating capacity
called as Firm Generation for EA thermal power plants are obtained from EA.
Nominal generating capacity called as Project Generation and reliable generating capacity
called as Firm Generation for EA hydro power plants are obtained from EA.
Project Generation and Firm Generation amounts of thermal power plants owned by
affiliated partnerships are obtained from EA for the period from 2009 to 2018.
Project Generation and Firm Generation amounts of Autoproducer and Generation
Company power plants are obtained from their licences and these generation amounts are
accepted as to remain at the same level for the next 10-year period. Generating capacity
amounts indicated on their licences are obtained from EPDK.
Generating capacity amounts of power plants under BO contract for the future ten-year
period are the energy sale amounts indicated on their contracts and obtained from TETA.
Generating capacity amounts of power plants under BOT and TOR contract for the future
10-year period are the energy sale amounts indicated on their contracts and obtained from
TETA. In spide of the agreements of some power plants under BOT contract expiring with
TETA in the period of the projection, it is assumed that these power plants will continue to
produce electricity in a different structure. The generation amount is taken as the same in
the period of the projection after expiring of their contracts.
The installed capacities of Autoproducer and Generation Company power plants (except for
decomissioning) whose licences have been cancelled are kept in total installed capacity and
their generation capacities are taken as zero.
The contracted generation amounts of Mobile Plants are used as Generating Capacity
Amount for mobile plants and these amounts are used till the end of their contracts with
EA. Due to expiration of mobile power plant contracts with EA, the corresponding
generation amounts by year will be decreased from the total generation capacity and only
the mobile power plants going on their contracts are put in the lists. After finishing their
contracts, the power plants will be able to produce by taking Generation Company licence.
The power plants with the licence of Generation Company till the end of 2008 are taken into
consideration in the study. But the plants not only expiring their contracts and but also not
taking the new generation licence are not taken into consideration.
20
Firm and Project generation capacity amounts of natural gas fired power plants are given by
related ownerships by assuming that there will be no constraint on natural gas supply during
the study period 2008-2017.
By taking into consideration of rehabilitation investments and maintenance-repair program
for state owned power plants, the generation amounts of the plants are given by EA.
2 x 150 MW units of Ambarl fuel oil fired power plant which is currently being extended
to be decommissioned in 2010 and new one to be commissioned as a natural gas fired power
plants with 840 MW (540 MW + 300 MW) total installed capacity in 2013 are taken into
consideration.
V.3. Capacities Under Construction, Capacities Granted by Licence by the end of 2008 and
expected to be in service on planned dates
On line dates and Project (in average hydro conditions) and Firm (in dry hydro conditions)
generation amounts of hydro power plants having total installed capacity of 2835.7 MW
which are constructed by DS and expected to be in service between the years of 2009 and
2016 are obtained from DS. Annual generation amounts of the projects whose
commissioning dates are given project by project in detail taken into consideration in the
balance tables by calculating as of their commissioning dates.
Installed capacity, project generation and firm generation data for power plants granted by
licence as the end of December 2008, under construction and expected to be in service on
proposed time are obtained according to two seperate scenarios (Scenario 1 and Scenario 2)
from January-2009 Progress Report by EPDK. The scenarios are prepared, by considering
assumptions below, by EPDK.
In this context, it is assumed that for the Scenario 1 the comissioning dates of both the
projects whose progressive rates are less and equal than 10% and the projects whose
progressive rates are not given are excepted uncertain. In addition the projects progressive
rate being more than 70% is assumed to be commissioned in 2009. Furthermore it is
assumed that the projects whose progressive rates are between 35% and 70% and which
have the capacity of
less than 100 MW will be comissioned in 2010

between 100 MW and 1000 MW will be comissioned in 2011 and
more than 1000 MW will be comissioned in 2012.
Besides the projects whose progressive rates are between 10% and 35% are assumed to be
comissioned 1 year forward of the year expected to be in service before.
Although the same methodology of the Scenario 1 is used for the Scenario 2, 15%, 40% and
80% are used instead of 10%, 35% and 70% respectively for the progressive rates.
Since EPDK did not give the commissioning date of private sector projects granted by
licence in monthly/yearly detail and project by project, these projects are assumed to start
operation from the beginning of the second part of commissioning year and then the
generations are taken into consideration in the balance tables according to this situation.
It is assumed that power plants under construction (2835.7 MW) by DS, Ambarl thermal
power plant being rehabilitated (840 MW) by EA and power plants granted by licence as
end of December 2008 and expected to be in service on proposed time (total installed
capacity, 11188.8 MW for Scenario 1 and 9047.1 MW Scenario 2) by EPDK will be in
service on proposed date within the period 2009-2016.
21
No import and export are being considered.

New additional capacities are not added to the system in this report, because the Generation
Expansion Planning Study hasnt been updated according to the variety (decreasing) of the
electricity energy demand being related to the economic crisis.
The year on which the shortage may occure is being determined by this study. By observing
this study results, investors might be able to decide new generation investment time.
Construction period of power plants should also be taken into consideration for new
investments.
Power plants in operation as end of the year 2008 are listed on ANNEX-1, power plants
which have been commissioned and decommissioned in 2008 are on ANNEX-2 and power
plants currently under construction and granted by licence and expected to be in service on
proposed time are listed as breakdown of the installed capacities by primary resources for
Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 on Table 15 and on Table 18 respectively and also as breakdown
of the project and firm generation capacity by primary resources for Scenario 1 and
Scenario 2 on Table 16 and 17 respectively and on Table 19 and 20 respectively.
22
Table 15 : Breakdown of Installed Capacity of Private Sector Power Plants under

construction and State-owned Power Plants under construction by Primary Resources.
Private Sector Power Plants
(Scenario 1)
Installed Capacity (MW)
RESOURCES
2009
Biogas
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
TOTAL
2,6
Waste Gas (LFG)
2,6
11,4
7,8
19,2
410,3
1215,8
145,6
805,9
1911,9
Other Coal
187,1
Natural Gas
91,9
Fuel Oil
67,0
67,0
Lignite
1,7
1,7
Geothermal
3026,6
2955,3
54,9
54,9
Hydro
562,0
1024,7
1007,5
Wind
205,8
173,3
269,5
1173,0
1354,9
2501,1
TOTAL
1213,3
1818,7
4412,9
648,6
4946,4
1213,3
0,0
0,0
0,0
11188,8
State-owned Power Plants

RESOURCES
2009
2010
2011
2012
Thermal
2013
2014
2015
2016
840,0
Hydro
495,3
470,4
670,0
TOTAL
495,3
470,4
670,0
0,0
840,0
TOTAL
840,0
0,0
1200,0
2835,7
0,0 1200,0
3675,7
GRAND TOTAL
RESOURCES
Thermal
Hydro
Wind+Renewable
TOTAL
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
TOTAL
347,7
145,6
1216,3
3127,7
2053,3
0,0
0,0
0,0
6890,6
1057,3
1495,1
1677,5
1818,7
0,0
0,0
0,0 1200,0
7248,6
263,3
184,7
277,3
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
725,2
1668,3
1825,3
3171,1
4946,4
2053,3
0,0
0,0 1200,0
14864,5
NOTE: 2 x 150 MW units of Ambarl fuel oil fired power plant which is currently being
extended to be decommissioned in 2010 and new one to be commissioned as a natural gas
fired power plant with 840 MW (540 MW + 300 MW) total installed capacity in 2013 are
taken into consideration.
23
Table 16 : Breakdown of Project Generation of Private Sector Power Plants under

Private SectorPower Plants
(Scenario 1)
Project Generation (GWh)
RESOURCES
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
TOTAL
Biogas
9,9
9,9
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
19,8
Waste Gas (LFG)
0,0
43,8
73,8
30,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
147,5
Other Coal
595,2
595,2
1458,0
5778,0
8327,8 4007,8
0,0
0,0
20762,0
Natural Gas
352,1
932,0
3700,8 10795,2
7674,4
0,0
0,0
0,0
23454,5
Fuel Oil
195,1
195,1
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
390,2
4,2
4,2
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
8,4
187,7
187,7
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
375,5
1112,9 3084,1
3793,4
4775,6
2953,4
0,0
0,0
0,0
15719,4
810,0
486,6
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
2421,1
9836,0 21865,4 18955,6 4007,8
0,0
0,0
63298,5
Lignite
Geothermal
Hydro
Wind
TOTAL
400,5
724,0
2857,6 5776,0

RESOURCES
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
TOTAL
0,0
0,0
0,0
5880,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
5880,0
Hydro
516,8 1964,4
1104,5
1500,3
0,0
0,0
0,0 3833,0
8919,0
TOTAL
516,8 1964,4
1104,5
1500,3
5880,0
0,0
0,0 3833,0
14799,0
Thermal
0,0
GRAND TOTAL
RESOURCES
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
TOTAL
Thermal
1146,6 1726,5
5158,8 16573,2 21882,2 4007,8
0,0
0,0
50495,2
Hydro
1629,7 5048,5
4897,9
6275,9
2953,4
0,0
0,0 3833,0
24638,3
883,8
516,6
0,0
0,0
0,0
Wind+Renewable
TOTAL
598,2
965,4
3374,4 7740,4 10940,5 23365,7 24835,6 4007,8
24
0,0
2963,9
0,0 3833,0
78097,4
Tablo 17: Breakdown of Firm Generation of Private Sector Power Plants under
(Scenario 1)
Firm Generation (GWh)
RESOURCES
2009
9,9
Biogas
2010
9,9
2011
2012
0,0
0,0
2013
0,0
2014
0,0
2015
2016
0,0
0,0
TOTAL
19,8
0,0
43,8
73,8
30,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
147,5
Other Coal
595,2
595,2
1458,0
5778,0
8327,8
4007,8
0,0
0,0
20762,0
Natural Gas
352,1
932,0
3700,8
10795,2
7674,4
0,0
0,0
0,0
23454,5
Fuel Oil
195,1
195,1
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
390,2
4,2
4,2
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
8,4
Waste Gas (LFG)
Lignite
Geothermal
187,7
187,7
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
375,5
Hydro
523,0
1449,5
1782,9
2244,5
1388,1
0,0
0,0
0,0
7388,1
Wind
TOTAL
340,5
615,4
688,5
413,6
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
2057,9
2207,7
4032,9
7703,9
19261,3
17390,3
4007,8
0,0
0,0
54604,1

RESOURCES
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
TOTAL
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
5606,4
0,0
0,0
0,0
5606,4
Hydro
371,9
1347,4
617,2
858,5
0,0
0,0
0,0
2459,0
5654,0
TOTAL
371,9
1347,4
617,2
858,5
5606,4
0,0
0,0
2459,0
11260,4
Thermal
GRAND TOTAL
RESOURCES
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
TOTAL
1146,6
1726,5
5158,8
16573,2
21608,6
4007,8
0,0
0,0
50221,6
Hydro
894,9
2796,9
2400,1
3103,0
1388,1
0,0
0,0
2459,0
13042,1
Wind+Renewable
538,1
856,8
762,3
443,6
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
2600,8
2579,6
5380,3
8321,1
20119,8
22996,7
4007,8
0,0
2459,0
65864,5
Thermal
TOTAL
25
Tablo 18: Breakdown of Installed Capacity of Private Sector Power Plants under
(Scenario 2)
RESOURCES
2009
11,4
Waste Gas (LFG)

Natural Gas
Fuel Oil
Lignite
Geothermal
Hydro
Wind
TOTAL
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2,6
Biogas
Other Coal
2010
187,1
91,9
67,0
1,7
47,4
412,5
172,8
983,0
78,6
7,8
410,3
872,9
7,5
893,3 956,2
183,8 202,0
1174,6 2449,3
607,9
1213,3
1025,0
1594,0
2201,9
2238,3
0,0
0,0
0,0
TOTAL
2,6
19,2
2418,7
2068,4
67,0
1,7
54,9
3856,1
558,6
9047,1

RESOURCES
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
840,0
840,0
Thermal
Hydro
495,3
470,4
670,0
TOTAL
495,3
470,4
670,0
0,0
840,0
TOTAL
0,0
1200,0
2835,7
0,0 1200,0
3675,7
GENEL TOPLAM
RESOURCES
2009
Hydro
347,7
907,8
Wind+Renewable
222,8
Thermal
TOTAL
1478,3
2010
2011
2012
2013
607,9
1594,0
3078,3
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0 1200,0
209,8
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
635,2
1645,0 3119,3
2201,9
3078,3
0,0
0,0 1200,0
12722,8
78,6 1283,3
1363,7 1626,2
202,7
2014
2015
2016
TOTAL
5395,8
6691,8
NOTE: 2 x 150 MW units of Ambarl fuel oil fired power plant which is currently being
extended to be decommissioned in 2010 and new one to be commissioned as a natural gas
fired power plants with 840 MW (540 MW + 300 MW) total installed capacity in 2013 are
taken into consideration.
26
Tablo 19: Breakdown of Project Generation of Private Sector Power Plants under
(Scenario 2)
RESOURCES
2009
9,9
Biogas
2010
9,9
2011
0,0
2012
0,0
2013
2014
0,0
2015
2016
0,0
0,0
0,0
TOTAL
19,8
0,0
43,8
73,8
30,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
147,5
Other Coal
595,2
595,2
1458,0
3618,0
6167,8
4007,8
0,0
0,0
16442,0
Natural Gas
352,1
672,0
3700,8
3380,8
4200,0
4200,0
0,0
0,0
16505,7
Fuel Oil
195,1
195,1
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
390,2
4,2
4,2
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
8,4
Geothermal
156,2
187,7
31,5
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
375,5
Hydro
825,0
2579,1
3527,9
4338,1
2564,3
0,0
0,0
0,0
13834,5
713,3
360,2
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
2066,3
9505,3 11727,1
12932,1
8207,8
0,0
0,0
49790,0
Waste Gas (LFG)
Lignite
Wind
TOTAL
319,9
673,0
2457,6
4960,1

RESOURCES
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
TOTAL
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
5880,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
5880,0
Hydro
516,8
1964,4
1104,5
1500,3
0,0
0,0
0,0
3833,0
8919,0
TOTAL
516,8
1964,4
1104,5
1500,3
5880,0
0,0
0,0
3833,0
14799,0
Thermal
GRAND TOTAL
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Thermal
1146,6
1466,5
5158,8
6998,8
16247,8
8207,8
0,0
0,0
39226,4
Hydro
1341,8
4543,5
4632,4
5838,4
2564,3
0,0
0,0
3833,0
22753,5
486,0
914,4
818,6
390,2
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
2609,1
6924,5 10609,8 13227,4
18812,1
8207,8
0,0
3833,0
64589,0
RESOURCES
Wind+Renewable
TOTAL
2974,4
27
2015
2016
TOPLAM
Tablo 20: Breakdown of Firm Generation of Private Sector Power Plants under
(Scenario 2)
RESOURCES
Biogas
Waste Gas (LFG)
Other Coal
Natural Gas
Fuel Oil
Lignite
Geothermal
Hydro
Wind
9,9
9,9
0,0
0,0
43,8
73,8
595,2
595,2 1458,0
352,1
672,0 3700,8
195,1
195,1
0,0
4,2
4,2
0,0
156,2
187,7
31,5
387,8 1212,2 1658,1
271,9
572,0
606,3
1972,4 3492,2 7528,5
0,0
0,0
0,0
30,0
0,0
0,0
3618,0
6167,8 4007,8
3380,8
4200,0 4200,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
2038,9
1205,2
0,0
306,1
0,0
0,0
9373,9 11573,0 8207,8
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
TOTAL
0,0
147,5
0,0
16442,0
0,0
16505,7
0,0
390,2
0,0
8,4
0,0
375,5
0,0
6502,2
0,0
1756,4
0,0
0,0
42147,8
TOTAL
RESOURCES
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
TOTAL
0,0
0,0
0,0
5606,4
0,0
0,0
0,0
5606,4
Hydro
371,9 1347,4
617,2
858,5
0,0
0,0
0,0 2459,0
5654,0
TOTAL
371,9 1347,4
617,2
858,5
5606,4
0,0
0,0 2459,0
11260,4
Thermal
0,0
GRAND TOTAL
RESOURCES
Thermal
Hydro
Wind+Renewable
TOTAL
2009
2010
2011
1146,6 1466,5 5158,8

759,7 2559,6 2275,3
438,0
813,5
711,6
2012
2013
2014
6998,8 15974,2 8207,8

2897,4
1205,2
0,0
336,1
0,0
0,0
2344,3 4839,6 8145,7 10232,4 17179,4 8207,8
2015
2016
0,0
0,0
0,0 2459,0
TOPLAM
38952,8
12156,2
0,0
2299,2
0,0 2459,0
53408,2
0,0
The installed capacities and generation data of DS power plants which are currently under construction ,
Ambarl natural gas fired power plant extended by EA and power plants granted by licence as end of
December 2008 started the construction but not in operation yet according to January 2009 Progress
Report of EPDK for both scenarios are listed on ANNEX-3.
The breakdown of total installed capacity which consists existing capacity as end of the year 2008 and new
additional capacities which are under construction and granted by licence and expected to be in service on
proposed date according to Scenario 1 by primary resources and by utilities are listed on Table 21 and
Figure 9 and also according to Scenario 2 are on Table 24 and Figure 10.
28
Table 21 : Breakdown of Installed Capacity by Utilities and by Primary Resources

(Scenario 1)
(Including Existing, State-owned underconstruction and Private Sector under construction
granted by licence and expected to be in service on proposed time Power Plants)
(MW)
2009
EA and AFFILIATED
PARTNERSHIP POWER
PLANTS
POWER PLANTS
UNDER BO CONTRACT
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
FUEL OIL
380
380
380
380
380
380
DIESEL
181
181
181
181
181
181
181
181
181
181
HARD COAL
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
LIGNITE
7461 7461
7461
7461
7461
7461
7461
7461
7461
7461
NATURAL GAS
3903 3903
3903
3903
4743
4743
4743
4743
4743
4743
HYDRO
11951
12422
13092
13092
13092
13092
13092
14292
14292
14292
TOTAL
24476
24647
25317
25317
26157
26157
26157
27357
27357
27357
620
620
620
620
620
620
620
620
620
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
650
650
650
650
650
650
650
650
NATURAL GAS
4782 4782
4782
4782
4782
4782
4782
4782
4782
4782
IMPORTED COAL
1320 1320
1320
1320
1320
1320
1320
1320
1320
1320
TOTAL
6102 6102
6102
6102
6102
6102
6102
6102
6102
6102
NATURAL GAS
1450 1450
1450
1450
1450
1450
1450
1450
1450
1450
982
982
982
982
982
982
982
982
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
2449
2449
2449
2449
2449
2449
2449
2449
263
263
263
263
263
263
263
263
263
263
263
263
263
263
263
263
263
263
799
799
799
799
799
799
799
799
799
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
LIGNITE
620
30 30
HYDRO
TOTAL
FUEL OIL
650
982
982
2449 2449
263
0
TOTAL
263
DIESEL
650
17 17
DIESEL
FUEL OIL
799
10 10
IMPORTED COAL
196
196
196
196
196
196
196
196
196
196
HARD COAL
255
255
255
255
255
255
255
255
255
255
LIGNITE
178
178
178
178
178
178
178
178
178
178
52
52
52
52
52
52
52
52
1388
1388
1388
1388
1388
1388
1388
1388
LPG
NATURAL GAS
52 52
1388 1388
BOGAS
13 13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
NAPHTA
71 71
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
OTHER
22 22
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
554
554
554
554
554
554
554
554
554
3538
3538
3538
3538
3538
3538
3538
3538
358
358
358
358
358
358
358
358
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
HYDRO
WIND
TOTAL
FUEL OIL
DIESEL
GENERATION
COMPANIES GRANTED
BY LICENCE
2013
380
TOTAL
AUTOPRODUCERS
2012
380
HYDRO
POWER PLANTS
UNDER BOT CONTRACT WIND
MOBILE PLANTS
2011
380
GEOTHERMAL
POWER PLANTS
UNDER TOR
CONTRACT
2010
680
554
1
3538 3538
358
358
15 15
LIGNITE
H.COAL+ASPHALTIT
322
732
1948
3162
3162
3162
3162
3162
3162
4123
6034
6034
6034
6034
6034
6034
6034
107
107
107
107
107
107
107
107
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
3401
5220
5220
5220
5220
5220
5220
5220
47
47
47
47
47
47
47
47
994
994
994
994
994
994
994
994
9863
14810
16023
16023
16023
16023
16023
16023
48182
53128
55182
55182
55182
56382
56382
56382
IMPORT COAL
NATURAL GAS
NAPHTA
GEOTHERMAL
HYDRO
BOGAS+WASTE
WIND
TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
322
3171 3317
107
107
85 85
1369 2394
28 39
551
724
6007 7362
43485
45011
29
Table 21 (Cont.) : Breakdown of Total Installed Capacity by Primary Resources

(Scenario 1)
(MW)
YEAR
LIGNITE
HARD COAL+ASPHALTIT
IMPORTED COAL
NATURAL GAS
GEOTHERMAL
FUEL OIL
DIESEL
OTHER
THERMAL TOTAL
BOGAS+WASTE
HYDRO
WIND
TOTAL
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
8260
8260
8260
8260
8260
8260
8260
8260
8260
8260
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
1838
1838
2248
3464
4678
4678
4678
4678
4678
4678
14693 14839 15645 17556 18396 18396 18396 18396 18396 18396
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
2100
1800
1800
1800
1800
1800
1800
1800
1800
1800
206
206
206
206
206
206
206
206
206
206
251
251
251
251
251
251
251
251
251
251
27989 27835 29051 32179 34232 34232 34232 34232 34232 34232
41
52
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
14886 16381 18058 19877 19877 19877 19877 21077 21077 21077
570
743
1012
1012
1012
1012
1012
1012
1012
1012
43485 45011 48182 53128 55182 55182 55182 56382 56382 56382
Figure 9 : Breakdown of Total Installed Capacity by Utilities (Scenario 1)
Project and firm generation capacities of existing power plants as end of the year 2008, under
construction state-owned power plants and under construction private sector power plants granted
by licence and expected to be in service on proposed date by utilities and by primary resources are
indicated according to Scenario 1 on Table 22 and on Table 23 respectively and according to
Scenario 2 on Table 25 and Table 26 respectively.
30
Table 22 : Breakdown of Project Generation Capacity by Utilities and by Primary

Resources (Scenario 1)
(GWh)
2009
FUEL OIL
DIESEL
EA and
HARD COAL
AFFILIATED
LIGNITE
PARTNERSHIP
NATURAL GAS
POWER PLANTS
HYDRO
TOTAL
POWER PLANTS LIGNITE
UNDER TOR
HYDRO
CONTRACT
TOTAL
POWER PLANTS NATURAL GAS
UNDER BO
IMPORTED COAL
CONTRACT
TOTAL
NATURAL GAS
POWER PLANTS
HYDRO
UNDER BOT
WIND
CONTRACT
TOTAL
FUEL OIL
MOBILE PLANTS
TOTAL
FUEL OIL
DIESEL
IMPORTED COAL
HARD COAL
LIGNITE
LPG
AUTOPRODUCERS NATURAL GAS
BOGAS
NAPHTA
OTHER
HYDRO
WIND
TOTAL
FUEL OIL
DIESEL
LIGNITE
H.COAL+ASPHALTIT
IMPORT COAL
GENERATION
COMPANIES
NAPHTA
GRANTED BY
NATURAL GAS
LICENCE
GEOTHERMAL
HYDRO
BOGAS+WASTE
WIND
TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
4760
4760
4760
4760
4760
4760
4760
4760
4760
4760
1260
1260
1260
1260
1260
1260
1260
1260
1260
1260
1950
1950
1950
1950
1950
1950
1950
1950
1950
1950
48497
48497
48497
48497
48497
48497
48497
48497
48497
48497
27320
27320
27320
27320
33200
33200
33200
33200
33200
33200
40165
42129
43234
44734
44734
44734
44734
48567
48567
48567
123952
125916
127021
128521
134401
134401
134401
138234
138234
138234
3624
3504
3546
3594
3642
3553
3504
3546
3594
3642
3624
3504
3546
3594
3642
3553
3504
3546
3594
3642
37787
38885
38653
38133
37947
37683
37485
38175
37973
33247
9135
9092
9309
9065
9025
8526
8775
9466
9031
9078
46922
47978
47962
47198
46972
46208
46260
47641
47005
42325
11245
10777
9974
11012
10777
9974
10834
10777
10146
11002
3479
3576
3527
3477
3428
3379
3340
3385
3385
3385
50
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
14774
14402
13551
14538
14254
13403
14223
14211
13580
14436
1752
1752
5066
5066
5066
5066
5066
5066
5066
5066
5066
5066
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
1470
1470
1470
1470
1470
1470
1470
1470
1470
1470
1072
1072
1072
1072
1072
1072
1072
1072
1072
1072
436
436
436
436
436
436
436
436
436
436
401
401
401
401
401
401
401
401
401
401
9749
9749
9749
9749
9749
9749
9749
9749
9749
9749
72
72
72
72
72
72
72
72
72
72
546
546
546
546
546
546
546
546
546
546
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
1688
1688
1688
1688
1688
1688
1688
1688
1688
1688
20720
20720
20720
20720
20720
20720
20720
20720
20720
20720
2270
2465
2465
2465
2465
2465
2465
2465
2465
2465
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
1543
2138
3596
9374
17702
21710
21710
21710
21710
21710
571
571
571
571
571
571
571
571
571
571
24223
25155
28856
39651
47326
47326
47326
47326
47326
47326
399
587
587
587
587
587
587
587
587
587
4330
7414
11207
15983
18936
18936
18936
18936
18936
18936
199
253
327
357
357
357
357
357
357
357
1591
2315
3125
3612
3612
3612
3612
3612
3612
3612
35206
40982
50818
72683
91639
95647
95647
95647
95647
95647
246949
253501
263617
287254
311628
313931
314754
319998
318779
315004
31
Table 22 (Cont.) : Breakdown of Total Project Generation Capacity by Primary Resources

(Scenario 1)
(GWh)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
52560
LIGNITE
3022
H.COAL+ASPHALTIT
12148
IMPORTED COAL
110325
NATURAL GAS
399
GEOTHERMAL
13848
FUEL OIL
1408
DIESEL
1663
OTHER
195372
THERMAL TOTAL
271
BOGAS+WASTE
49662
HYDRO
1643
WIND
52445
3022
12701
111887
587
12291
1408
1663
196003
325
54807
52486
3022
14376
114553
587
12291
1408
1663
200385
399
59657
52534
3022
19910
125866
587
12291
1408
1663
217280
429
65882
52583
3022
28197
138999
587
12291
1408
1663
238750
429
68787
52493
3022
31706
137933
587
12291
1408
1663
241102
429
68738
52445
3022
31955
138593
587
12291
1408
1663
241964
429
68699
52486
3022
32646
139227
587
12291
1408
1663
243330
429
72577
52534
3022
32211
138394
587
12291
1408
1663
242110
429
72577
52583
3022
32258
134525
587
12291
1408
1663
238335
429
72577
2366
3176
3663
3663
3663
3663
3663
3663
3663
246949
253501
263617
287254
311628
313931
314754
319998
318779
315004
YEAR
TOTAL
2009
32
Table 23 : Breakdown of Firm Generation Capacity by Utilities and by Primary Resources

(Scenario 1)
(GWh)
2009
FUEL OIL
DIESEL
EA and
HARD COAL
AFFILIATED
LIGNITE
PARTNERSHIP
NATURAL GAS
POWER PLANTS
HYDRO
TOTAL
LIGNITE
POWER PLANTS
UNDER TOR
HYDRO
CONTRACT
TOTAL
NATURAL GAS
POWER PLANTS
UNDER BO
IMPORTED COAL
CONTRACT
TOTAL
NATURAL GAS
POWER PLANTS
HYDRO
UNDER BOT
WIND
CONTRACT
TOTAL
FUEL OIL
MOBILE PLANTS
TOTAL
FUEL OIL
DIESEL
IMPORTED COAL
HARD COAL
LIGNITE
LPG
BOGAS
NAPHTA
OTHER
HYDRO
WIND
TOTAL
FUEL OIL
DIESEL
LIGNITE
H.COAL+ASPHALTIT
IMPORT COAL
GENERATION
COMPANIES
NAPHTA
GRANTED BY
NATURAL GAS
LICENCE
GEOTHERMAL
HYDRO
BOGAS+WASTE
WIND
TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2625
2638
2638
2638
2638
2638
2638
2638
2638
2638
1071
1051
1051
1051
1051
1051
1051
1051
1051
1051
1967
1537
1221
1537
1840
1840
1840
1840
1840
1840
37041
36435
35972
38160
44062
44062
44062
44062
44062
44574
22659
23967
25919
24614
31526
30223
31526
31005
31526
31005
24531
25879
26496
27354
27354
27354
27354
29813
29813
29813
89896
91508
93297
95354
108470
107167
108470
110408
110929
110920
3624
3504
3546
3594
3642
3553
3504
3546
3594
3642
3624
3504
3546
3594
3642
3553
3504
3546
3594
3642
37787
38885
38653
38133
37947
37683
37485
38175
37973
33247
9135
9092
9309
9065
9025
8526
8775
9466
9031
9078
46922
47978
47962
47198
46972
46208
46260
47641
47005
42325
11245
10777
9974
11012
10777
9974
10834
10777
10146
11002
3479
3576
3527
3477
3428
3379
3340
3385
3385
3385
50
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
14774
14402
13551
14538
14254
13403
14223
14211
13580
14436
1000
1000
5066
5066
5066
5066
5066
5066
5066
5066
5066
5066
72,7
72,7
72,7
72,7
72,7
72,7
72,7
72,7
72,7
72,7
1470
1470
1470
1470
1470
1470
1470
1470
1470
1470
1072
1072
1072
1072
1072
1072
1072
1072
1072
1072
436
436
436
436
436
436
436
436
436
436
401
401
401
401
401
401
401
401
401
401
9749
9749
9749
9749
9749
9749
9749
9749
9749
9749
72
72
72
72
72
72
72
72
72
72
546
546
546
546
546
546
546
546
546
546
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
1223
1223
1223
1223
1223
1223
1223
1223
1223
1223
20255
20255
20255
20255
20255
20255
20255
20255
20255
20255
2270
2465
2465
2465
2465
2465
2465
2465
2465
2465
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
1543
2138
3596
9374
17702
21710
21710
21710
21710
21710
571
571
571
571
571
571
571
571
571
571
24223
25155
28856
39651
47326
47326
47326
47326
47326
47326
391
579
579
579
579
579
579
579
579
579
2381
3808
5591
7835
9223
9223
9223
9223
9223
9223
185
239
313
343
343
343
343
343
343
343
1400
2015
2703
3117
3117
3117
3117
3117
3117
3117
33044
209514
37054
44757
64019
81409
85417
85417
85417
85417
85417
214700
223368
244957
275002
276003
278128
281477
280779
276995
33
Table 23 (Cont.) : Breakdown of Total Firm Generation Capacity by Primary Resources

(Scenario 1)
(GWh)
YEAR
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
LIGNITE
HARD COAL+ASPHALTIT
IMPORTED COAL
NATURAL GAS
GEOTHERMAL
FUEL OIL
DIESEL
OTHER
THERMAL TOTAL
BOGAS+WASTE
HYDRO
41105
3039
12148
105664
391
10961
1219
1663
176190
257
31615
40384
2609
12701
108534
579
10169
1199
1663
177837
311
34486
39961
2293
14376
113152
579
10169
1199
1663
183392
385
36837
42198
2609
19910
123159
579
10169
1199
1663
201485
415
39890
48148
2912
28197
137324
579
10169
1199
1663
230190
415
41229
48058
2912
31706
134956
579
10169
1199
1663
231240
415
41180
48010
2912
31955
136919
579
10169
1199
1663
233405
415
41141
48051
2912
32646
137032
579
10169
1199
1663
234250
415
43645
48100
2912
32211
136720
579
10169
1199
1663
233551
415
43645
48660
2912
32258
132329
579
10169
1199
1663
229768
415
43645
WIND
TOTAL
1452
2066
2755
3168
3168
3168
3168
3168
3168
3168
209514
214700
223368
244957
275002
276003
278128
281477
280779
276995
34
Table 24: Breakdown of Installed Capacity by Utilities and by Primary Resources

(Scenario 2)
(MW)
2009
EA and
AFFILIATED
PARTNERSHIP
POWER PLANTS
POWER PLANTS
UNDER TOR
CONTRACT
POWER PLANTS
UNDER BO
CONTRACT
POWER PLANTS
UNDER BOT
CONTRACT
FUEL OIL
DIESEL
HARD COAL
LIGNITE
NATURAL GAS
HYDRO
TOTAL
LIGNITE
HYDRO
TOTAL
NATURAL GAS
IMPORTED COAL
TOTAL
NATURAL GAS
HYDRO
WIND
TOTAL
FUEL OIL
MOBILE PLANTS
TOTAL
FUEL OIL
DIESEL
IMPORTED COAL
HARD COAL
LIGNITE
LPG
BOGAS
NAPHTA
OTHER
HYDRO
WIND
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
680
380
380
380
380
380
380
380
380
380
181
181
181
181
181
181
181
181
181
181
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
7461
7461
7461
7461
7461
7461
7461
7461
7461
7461
3903
3903
3903
3903
4743
4743
4743
4743
4743
4743
11951
12422
13092
13092
13092
13092
13092
14292
14292
14292
24476
24647
25317
25317
26157
26157
26157
27357
27357
27357
620
620
620
620
620
620
620
620
620
620
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
650
650
650
650
650
650
650
650
650
650
4782
4782
4782
4782
4782
4782
4782
4782
4782
4782
1320
1320
1320
1320
1320
1320
1320
1320
1320
1320
6102
6102
6102
6102
6102
6102
6102
6102
6102
6102
1450
1450
1450
1450
1450
1450
1450
1450
1450
1450
982
982
982
982
982
982
982
982
982
982
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
2449
2449
2449
2449
2449
2449
2449
2449
2449
2449
263
263
263
263
263
263
263
263
263
263
263
263
263
263
263
263
263
263
263
263
799
799
799
799
799
799
799
799
799
799
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
196
196
196
196
196
196
196
196
196
196
255
255
255
255
255
255
255
255
255
255
178
178
178
178
178
178
178
178
178
178
52
52
52
52
52
52
52
52
52
52
1388
1388
1388
1388
1388
1388
1388
1388
1388
1388
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
554
554
554
554
554
554
554
554
554
554
TOTAL
FUEL OIL
DIESEL
LIGNITE
H.COAL+ASPHALTIT
IMPORT COAL
NATURAL GAS
NAPHTA
GEOTHERMAL
HYDRO
BOGAS+WASTE
WIND
3538
3538
3538
3538
3538
3538
3538
3538
3538
3538
358
358
358
358
358
358
358
358
358
358
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
322
322
732
1340
2554
2554
2554
2554
2554
2554
3171
3250
4123
4123
5148
5148
5148
5148
5148
5148
107
107
107
107
107
107
107
107
107
107
77
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
1220
2113
3069
4663
4663
4663
4663
4663
4663
4663
28
39
47
47
47
47
47
47
47
47
518
702
904
904
904
904
904
904
904
904
TOTAL
5817
6992
9441
11643
13881
13881
13881
13881
13881
13881
GRAND TOTAL
43295
44640
47760
49962
53040
53040
53040
54240
54240
54240
GENERATION
COMPANIES
GRANTED BY
LICENCE
35
Table 24 (Cont.) : Breakdown of Total Installed Capacity by Primary Resources

(Scenario 2)
(MW)
YEAR
LIGNITE
HARD COAL+ASPHALTIT
IMPORTED COAL
NATURAL GAS
2009
8260
2010
8260
2011
8260
2012
8260
2013
8260
2014
8260
2015
8260
2016
8260
2017
8260
2018
8260
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
1838
1838
2248
2856
4070
4070
4070
4070
4070
4070
14693
14772
15645
15645
17510
17510
17510
17510
17510
17510
77
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
2100
1800
1800
1800
1800
1800
1800
1800
1800
1800
DIESEL
206
206
206
206
206
206
206
206
206
206
OTHER
251
251
251
251
251
251
251
251
251
251
27982
27768
29051
29659
32737
32737
32737
32737
32737
32737
GEOTHERMAL
FUEL OIL
THERMAL TOTAL
BOGAS+WASTE
HYDRO
WIND
TOTAL
41
52
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
14736
16100
17726
19320
19320
19320
19320
20520
20520
20520
537
720
922
922
922
922
922
922
922
922
43295
44640
47760
49962
53040
53040
53040
54240
54240
54240
Figure 10: Breakdown of Total Installed Capacity by Utilities (Scenario 2)
36
Table 25: Breakdown of Project Generation Capacity by Utilities and by Primary Resources
(Scenario 2)
(GWh)
2009
EA and
AFFILIATED
PARTNERSHIP
POWER PLANTS
POWER PLANTS
UNDER TOR
CONTRACT
POWER PLANTS
UNDER BO
CONTRACT
POWER PLANTS
UNDER BOT
CONTRACT
MOBILE PLANTS
FUEL OIL
DIESEL
HARD COAL
LIGNITE
NATURAL GAS
HYDRO
TOTAL
LIGNITE
HYDRO
TOTAL
NATURAL GAS
IMPORTED COAL
TOTAL
NATURAL GAS
HYDRO
WIND
TOTAL
FUEL OIL
TOTAL
FUEL OIL
DIESEL
IMPORTED COAL
HARD COAL
LIGNITE
LPG
BOGAS
NAPHTA
OTHER
HYDRO
WIND
GENERATION
COMPANIES
GRANTED BY
LICENCE
TOTAL
FUEL OIL
DIESEL
LIGNITE
H.COAL+ASPHALTIT
IMPORT COAL
NAPHTA
NATURAL GAS
GEOTHERMAL
HYDRO
BOGAS+WASTE
WIND
TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
4760
4760
4760
4760
4760
4760
4760
4760
4760
4760
1260
1260
1260
1260
1260
1260
1260
1260
1260
1260
1950
1950
1950
1950
1950
1950
1950
1950
1950
1950
48497
48497
48497
48497
48497
48497
48497
48497
48497
48497
27320
27320
27320
27320
33200
33200
33200
33200
33200
33200
40165
42129
43234
44734
44734
44734
44734
48567
48567
48567
123952
125916
127021
128521
134401
134401
134401
138234
138234
138234
3624
3504
3546
3594
3642
3553
3504
3546
3594
3642
3624
3504
3546
3594
3642
3553
3504
3546
3594
3642
37787
38885
38653
38133
37947
37683
37485
38175
37973
33247
9135
9092
9309
9065
9025
8526
8775
9466
9031
9078
46922
47978
47962
47198
46972
46208
46260
47641
47005
42325
11245
10777
9974
11012
10777
9974
10834
10777
10146
11002
3479
3576
3527
3477
3428
3379
3340
3385
3385
3385
50
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
14774
14402
13551
14538
14254
13403
14223
14211
13580
14436
1752
1752
5066
5066
5066
5066
5066
5066
5066
5066
5066
5066
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
1470
1470
1470
1470
1470
1470
1470
1470
1470
1470
1072
1072
1072
1072
1072
1072
1072
1072
1072
1072
436
436
436
436
436
436
436
436
436
436
401
401
401
401
401
401
401
401
401
401
9749
9749
9749
9749
9749
9749
9749
9749
9749
9749
72
72
72
72
72
72
72
72
72
72
546
546
546
546
546
546
546
546
546
546
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
1688
1688
1688
1688
1688
1688
1688
1688
1688
1688
20720
20720
20720
20720
20720
20720
20720
20720
20720
20720
2270
2465
2465
2465
2465
2465
2465
2465
2465
2465
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
1543
2138
3596
7214
13382
17390
17390
17390
17390
17390
571
571
571
571
571
571
571
571
571
571
24223
24895
28596
31977
36177
40377
40377
40377
40377
40377
367
555
587
587
587
587
587
587
587
587
4042
6621
10149
14487
17051
17051
17051
17051
17051
17051
199
253
327
357
357
357
357
357
357
357
1510
2183
2897
3257
3257
3257
3257
3257
3257
3257
34806
39766
49271
60998
73930
82138
82138
82138
82138
82138
246549
252285
262070
275569
293919
300422
301246
306489
305270
301495
37
Table 25 (Cont.): Breakdown of Total Project Generation Capacity by Primary

Resources (Scenario 2)
(GWh)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
52560
52445
52486
52534
52583
52493
52445
52486
52534
52583
3022
3022
3022
3022
3022
3022
3022
3022
3022
3022
12148
12701
14376
17750
23877
27386
27635
28326
27891
27938
NATURAL GAS
110325
111627
114293
118191
127850
130984
131645
132278
131445
127576
GEOTHERMAL
367
555
587
587
587
587
587
587
587
587
13848
12291
12291
12291
12291
12291
12291
12291
12291
12291
DIESEL
1408
1408
1408
1408
1408
1408
1408
1408
1408
1408
OTHER
1663
1663
1663
1663
1663
1663
1663
1663
1663
1663
195341
195711
200125
207446
223281
229833
230695
232061
230842
227067
YEAR
LIGNITE
H.COAL+ASPHALTIT
IMPORTED COAL
FUEL OIL
THERMAL TOTAL
BOGAS+WASTE
HYDRO
WIND
TOTAL
271
325
399
429
429
429
429
429
429
429
49374
54015
58598
64387
66902
66853
66814
70692
70692
70692
1563
2235
2948
3308
3308
3308
3308
3308
3308
3308
246549
252285
262070
275569
293919
300422
301246
306489
305270
301495
38
Table 26: Breakdown of Firm Generation Capacity by Utilities and Primary Resources
(Scenario 2)
(GWh)
2009
FUEL OIL
DIESEL
EA and
HARD COAL
AFFILIATED
LIGNITE
PARTNERSHIP
HYDRO
TOTAL
POWER PLANTS LIGNITE
UNDER TOR
HYDRO
CONTRACT
TOTAL
UNDER BO
IMPORTED COAL
CONTRACT
TOTAL
NATURAL GAS
POWER PLANTS
HYDRO
UNDER BOT
WIND
CONTRACT
TOTAL
FUEL OIL
MOBILE PLANTS
TOTAL
FUEL OIL
DIESEL
IMPORTED COAL
HARD COAL
LIGNITE
LPG
BOGAS
NAPHTA
OTHER
HYDRO
WIND
TOTAL
FUEL OIL
DIESEL
LIGNITE
H.COAL+ASPHALTIT
IMPORT COAL
GENERATION
NAPHTA
COMPANIES
GRANTED BY
NATURAL GAS
LICENCE
GEOTHERMAL
HYDRO
BOGAS+WASTE
WIND
TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2625
2638
2638
2638
2638
2638
2638
2638
2638
2638
1071
1051
1051
1051
1051
1051
1051
1051
1051
1051
1967
1537
1221
1537
1840
1840
1840
1840
1840
1840
37041
36435
35972
38160
44062
44062
44062
44062
44062
44574
22659
23967
25919
24614
31526
30223
31526
31005
31526
31005
24531
25879
26496
27354
27354
27354
27354
29813
29813
29813
89896
91508
93297
95354
108470
107167
108470
110408
110929
110920
3624
3504
3546
3594
3642
3553
3504
3546
3594
3642
3624
3504
3546
3594
3642
3553
3504
3546
3594
3642
37787
38885
38653
38133
37947
37683
37485
38175
37973
33247
9135
9092
9309
9065
9025
8526
8775
9466
9031
9078
46922
47978
47962
47198
46972
46208
46260
47641
47005
42325
11245
10777
9974
11012
10777
9974
10834
10777
10146
11002
3479
3576
3527
3477
3428
3379
3340
3385
3385
3385
50
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
14774
14402
13551
14538
14254
13403
14223
14211
13580
14436
1000
1000
5066
5066
5066
5066
5066
5066
5066
5066
5066
5066
72,7
72,7
72,7
72,7
72,7
72,7
72,7
72,7
72,7
72,7
1470
1470
1470
1470
1470
1470
1470
1470
1470
1470
1072
1072
1072
1072
1072
1072
1072
1072
1072
1072
436
436
436
436
436
436
436
436
436
436
401
401
401
401
401
401
401
401
401
401
9749
9749
9749
9749
9749
9749
9749
9749
9749
9749
72
72
72
72
72
72
72
72
72
72
546
546
546
546
546
546
546
546
546
546
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
1223
1223
1223
1223
1223
1223
1223
1223
1223
1223
20255
20255
20255
20255
20255
20255
20255
20255
20255
20255
2270
2465
2465
2465
2465
2465
2465
2465
2465
2465
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
1543
2138
3596
7214
13382
17390
17390
17390
17390
17390
571
571
571
571
571
571
571
571
571
571
24223
24895
28596
31977
36177
40377
40377
40377
40377
40377
359
547
579
579
579
579
579
579
579
579
2246
3435
5093
7132
8337
8337
8337
8337
8337
8337
185
239
313
343
343
343
343
343
343
343
1331
1903
2509
2815
2815
2815
2815
2815
2815
2815
32809
36277
43806
53180
64753
72961
72961
72961
72961
72961
209278
213924
222416
234119
258346
263547
265672
269021
268323
264539
39
Table 26 (Cont.) : Breakdown of Firm Generation Capacity by Utilities and Primary

Resources
(Scenario 2)
(GWh)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
41105
40384
39961
42198
48148
48058
48010
48051
48100
48660
3039
2609
2293
2609
2912
2912
2912
2912
2912
2912
12148
12701
14376
17750
23877
27386
27635
28326
27891
27938
NATURAL GAS
105664
108274
112892
115485
126176
128007
129970
130083
129771
125380
GEOTHERMAL
359
547
579
579
579
579
579
579
579
579
10961
10169
10169
10169
10169
10169
10169
10169
10169
10169
DIESEL
1219
1199
1199
1199
1199
1199
1199
1199
1199
1199
OTHER
1663
1663
1663
1663
1663
1663
1663
1663
1663
1663
176158
177545
183132
191651
214722
219972
222136
222981
222283
218499
257
311
385
415
415
415
415
415
415
415
31479
34114
36340
39187
40343
40294
40255
42759
42759
42759
1383
1954
2560
2867
2867
2867
2867
2867
2867
2867
209278
213924
222416
234119
258346
263547
265672
269021
268323
264539
YEAR
LIGNITE
HARD COAL+ASPHALTIT
IMPORTED COAL
FUEL OIL
THERMAL TOTAL
BOGAS+WASTE
HYDRO
WIND
TOTAL
40
VI.
RESULTS
VI.I. Case I A (High Demand Scenario 1)

In this section the power plants which are
Existing as end of the year 2008,
State owned under construction and
Private sector owned under construction granted by licence and expected to be in service on
proposed date based on January 2009 Progress Report of EPDK and prepared according to
Scenario 1 by EPDK,
considered with High Demand Series. By taking into consideration the effects of the economic crisis,
Demand Series have been revized by ETKB and the generation demand is expected to reach 202.7 TWh in
2010 and 357.2 TWh in 2018. The supply and demand situation according to these data is calculated:
According to above situation, peak demand can be covered in the all study period. When the generation
capacity is considered, the energy demand can not be covered in 2015 according to firm generation
capacity and in 2017 according to project generation capacity.
The development of the existing capacity, the state-owned capacity under construction and the private
sector owned capacity under construction granted by licence and expected to be in service on the proposed
time, covering the increasing demand by years is indicated on Table 27.
Beside this, not only the development of total installed capacity consisting of the existing, the state owned
under construction and the private sector owned under construction granted by licence and expected to be
in service on proposed date but also the development of the capacity reserves after covering the peak load
with the power plants which are;
only existing capacity,
existing capacity + state owned capacity under construction and
existing capacity + state owned capacity under construction + private sector owned under
construction capacity granted by licence and expected to be in service on proposed date
are submitted on Table 27 and the year is determined in which new generation facilities will be needed.
When the existing power plants are considered solely, capacity reserve starts from 39.9% in 2009 and
continuously decreases and the peak demand exceeds the total installed capacity in 2015 by reaching to
6.6%. According to the increase of peak demand the capacity reserve reaches to 24.6% in year 2018
with the existing capacity as end of the year 2008.
When the sum of existing capacity and state-owned capacity under construction are considered, the
capacity reserve is 41.5% in 2009, drops to 1% in 2015 and reaches to 17.9% in 2018.
When existing capacity, state owned capacity under construction and private sector owned under
construction capacity granted by licence and expected to be in service on proposed date are examined
together, capacity reserve is 45.4% in 2009 and decreases to 2.4% in 2018.
In spide of no shortage in the capacity reserve up to 2018, new additional capacity will be necessary to be
commissioned to the system starting from 2015, by considering the necessity of a certain amount of the
reserve in the system, in order not to face energy shortage in the system.
41
Table 27 :Installed Capacity and Peak Demand Balance

(Case I A) High DemandScenario1
(MW)
YEAR
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
EXISTING POWER PLANTS

THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
WIND + RENEWABLE TOTAL
27557 27257 27257 27257 27257 27257 27257 27257 27257 27257
13829 13829 13829 13829 13829 13829 13829 13829 13829 13829
432
432
432
432
432
432
432
432
432
432
GRAND TOTAL
41817 41517 41517 41517 41517 41517 41517 41517 41517 41517
COVERING OF PEAK DEMAND WITH EXISTING POWER PLANTS

PEAK LOAD DEMAND
RESERVE %
29900 31246 33276 35772 38455 41339 44440 47728 51260 55053
39,9
32,9
24,8
16,1
8,0
0,4
-6,6
-13,0
-19,0
-24,6
STATE-OWNED POWER PLANTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION

THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
0
495
0
0
966
0
0
1636
0
0
1636
0
840
1636
0
840
1636
0
840
1636
0
840
2836
0
840
2836
0
840
2836
0
GRAND TOTAL
495
966
1636
1636
2476
2476
2476
3676
3676
3676
EXISTING AND STATE-OWNED UNDER CONSTRUCTION POWER PLANTS

THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
27557 27257 27257 27257 28097 28097 28097 28097 28097 28097
14324 14794 15464 15464 15464 15464 15464 16664 16664 16664
432
432
432
432
432
432
432
432
432
432
GRAND TOTAL
42312 42483 43153 43153 43993 43993 43993 45193 45193 45193
COVERING OF PEAK DEMAND WITH EXISTING AND STATE-OWNED UNDER CONSTRUCTION POWER PLANTS
PEAK LOAD DEMAND
RESERVE %
29900 31246 33276 35772 38455 41339 44440 47728 51260 55053
41,5
36,0
29,7
20,6
14,4
6,4
-1,0
-5,3
-11,8
-17,9
PRIVATE SECTOR UNDER CONSTRUCTION LICENCED POWER PLANTS

THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
348
493
1710
4837
6051
6051
6051
6051
6051
6051
562
263
1587
448
2594
725
4413
725
4413
725
4413
725
4413
725
4413
725
4413
725
4413
725
1173
2528
5029
9976 11189 11189 11189 11189 11189 11189
STATE-OWNED UNDER CONSTRUCTION AND PRIVATE SECTOR UNDER CONSTRUCTION

LICENCED POWER PLANTS
348
493
1710
4837
6891
6891
6891
THERMAL TOTAL
1057
2552
4230
6049
6049
6049
6049
HYDRO TOTAL
263
448
725
725
725
725
725
GRAND TOTAL
1668
3494
6891
7249
725
6891
7249
725
6891
7249
725
6665 11611 13665 13665 13665 14865 14865 14865
EXISTING, STATE-OWNED UNDER CONSTRUCTION AND PRIVATE SECTOR UNDER CONSTRUCTION LICENCED
POWER PLANTS
27905 27750 28966 32094 34147 34147 34147 34147 34147 34147
THERMAL TOTAL
14886 16381 18058 19877 19877 19877 19877 21077 21077 21077
HYDRO TOTAL
695
880
1157
1157
1157
1157
1157
1157
1157
1157
GRAND TOTAL
43485 45011 48182 53128 55182 55182 55182 56382 56382 56382
COVERING OF PEAK DEMAND WITH EXISTING, STATE-OWNED UNDER CONSTRUCTION AND PRIVATE SECTOR
UNDER CONSTRUCTION LICENCED POWER PLANTS
PEAK LOAD DEMAND
RESERVE %
29900 31246 33276 35772 38455 41339 44440 47728 51260 55053
45,4
44,1
44,8
42
48,5
43,5
33,5
24,2
18,1
10,0
2,4
The annual development of total installed capacity composed of existing capacity, state owned capacity
under construction and private sector owned capacity under construction granted by licence and expected
to be in service on proposed time is on Figure 11.
Figure 11 : Development of Installed Capacity Composed of Existing Power Plants + State

owned Power Plants Under Construction + Private Sector owned Power Plants Under
Construction Granted by Licence and Expected to be in Service on Proposed Time and Peak
Demand
(Case I - A) High Demand-Scenario 1
60000
50000
MW
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2009
2010
EXISTING
2011
2012
2013
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
2014
2015
GRANTED BY LICENCE
2016
2017
2018
PEAK DEMAND
The development of total project generation composed of existing, state owned under construction and
private sector owned under construction granted by licence and expected to be in service on proposed time
together with energy reserve after covering the demand with these power plants are submitted on Table 28
for each composition.
When the existing power plants are considered solely, energy reserve starts from 25.6% in 2009 and
decreases continuously by year, the energy demand exceeds the project generation capacity in 2013 and the
energy reserve drops to 33.7% in 2018.
When the total project generation of existing power plants and state owned power plants under
construction are considered, the energy reserve is 25.8% in 2009, vanishes in 2013 and drops to negative
value of -6.6% in 2014 and reaches to 29.5% in 2018.
If the project generations of existing power plants, state owned power plants under construction and private
sector owned power plants under construction granted by licence and expected to be in service on proposed
date are examined together, 27.3% of energy reserve is calculated in 2009, by decreasing the reserve
becomes negative value of 4.2% in 2017 and drops to 11.8% in 2018.
43
Table 28 : Project Generation Capacity and Energy Demand Balance 2009-2018

(Case I-A) High Demand Scenario 1
(GWh)
YEAR
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018

THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
193827 192543 191767 192089 191676 190020 190882 192248 191029 187254
48032 48129 48080 48030 47981 47932 47893 47938 47938 47938
1715
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
GRAND TOTAL
243574 242387 241561 241833 241371 239666 240490 241900 240681 236906

ENERGY DEMAND (HIGH DEMAND) 194000 202730 215907 232101 249508 268221 288338 309675 332591 357202
RESERVE %
25,6
19,6
11,9
4,2
-3,3
-10,6
-16,6
-21,9
-27,6
-33,7

THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
0
517
0
0
2481
0
0
3586
0
0
5086
0
5880
5086
0
5880
5086
0
5880
5086
0
5880
8919
0
5880
8919
0
5880
8919
0
GRAND TOTAL
517
2481
3586
5086
10966
10966
10966
14799
14799
14799

THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
193827 192543 191767 192089 197556 195900 196762 198128 196909 193134
48549 50610 51666 53116 53067 53018 52979 56857 56857 56857
1715
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
GRAND TOTAL
244091 244868 245147 246919 252337 250632 251456 256699 255480 251705
RESERVE %
25,8
20,8
13,5
6,4
1,1
-6,6
-12,8
-17,1
-23,2
-29,5

THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
1147
2873
8032
24605
40607
44615
44615
44615
44615
44615
1113
598
4197
1564
7990
2447
12766
2964
15719
2964
15719
2964
15719
2964
15719
2964
15719
2964
15719
2964
GRAND TOTAL
2858
8634
18470
40335
59291
63298
63298
63298
63298
63298
STATE-OWNED UNDER CONSTRUCTION AND PRIVATE SECTOR UNDER CONSTRUCTION LICENCED

POWER PLANTS
1147
2873
8032 24605 46487 50495 50495 50495
THERMAL TOTAL
1630
6678 11576 17852 20805 20805 20805 24638
HYDRO TOTAL
598
1564
2447
2964
2964
2964
2964
2964
50495
24638
2964
50495
24638
2964
78097
78097
GRAND TOTAL
3375
11115
22056
45421
70257
74264
74264
78097
EXISTING, STATE-OWNED UNDER CONSTRUCTION AND PRIVATE SECTOR UNDER CONSTRUCTION LICENCED POWER
PLANTS
194974 195416 199799 216694 238163 240515 241378 242743 241524 237749
THERMAL TOTAL
49662 54807 59657 65882 68787 68738 68699 72577 72577 72577
HYDRO TOTAL
2313
3278
4161
4678
4678
4678
4678
4678
4678
4678
GRAND TOTAL
246949 253501 263617 287254 311628 313931 314754 319998 318779 315004
COVERING OF PEAK DEMAND WITH EXISTING, STATE-OWNED UNDER CONSTRUCTION AND PRIVATE SECTOR UNDER
CONSTRUCTION LICENCED POWER PLANTS
RESERVE %
27,3
25,0
22,1
44
23,8
24,9
17,0
9,2
3,3
-4,2
-11,8
The annual development of the project generations of existing power plants, state owned power plants
under construction and private sector owned power plants under construction granted by licence and
expected to be in service on proposed date is on Figure 12 and the firm generation of the same capacity
composition is on Figure 13. The demand can not be covered with the total project generation in 2017 and
with the total firm generation in 2015 with the capacities of existing power plants, state owned power
plants under construction and private sector owned power plants under construction granted by licence and
expected to be in service on proposed date.
Figure 12 : Development of Project Generation Capacity of Existing Power Plants + State

owned Power Plants Under Construction + Private Sector owned Power Plants under
construction Granted by Licence and Expected to be in Service on Proposed Time and
Energy Demand (Case I - A)
450000
The year in which energy shortage is
expected according to generation capacity
total of existing, under construction and
granted by licence capacities
400000
350000
300000
GWh
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
2009
2010
EXISTING
2011
2012
2013
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
2014
2015
GRANTED BY LICENCE
2016
2017
2018
ENERGY DEMAND
The development of total firm generation capacities of existing, state owned under
construction and private sector owned under construction granted by licence and expected to be in
service on proposed time is submitted together with energy reserve after covering the demand
with these power plants on Table 29.
When the existing power plants are considered solely, firm energy reserve starts from 6.7% in 2009 and
decreases by year, the energy demand exceeds the firm generation capacity and the energy reserve drops to
negative value of 4.1% in 2011. The energy reserve drops persistently to the level of 40.9% in 2018.
When the total firm generation capacities of existing power plants and state owned power plants
under construction is considered, energy reserve is 6.9% in 2009, drops to negative value of 3% in 2011
and reaches to 37.7% in 2018.
If the total firm generation capacities of existing power plants, state owned power plants under
construction and private sector owned under construction power plants granted by licence and expected to
be in service on proposed date is examined, 8% of energy reserve is calculated in 2009, by decreasing the
energy reserve becomes negative value of 3.5% in 2015 and drops to 22.5% in 2018. New additional
capacity will be necessary to be commissioned in the system starting from 2015 in the case of considering
of the covering of the demand with the firm energy generation according to the case.
45
Table 29 : Firm Generation Capacity and Energy Demand Balance 2009-2018

(Case I - A) High Demand Scenario 1
(GWh)
YEAR
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018

THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
174653 174385 174781 176302 183398 180440 182605 183450 182751 178968
30720
30794
30745
30695
30646
30597
30558
30603
30603
30603
1562
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
206934 206740 207087 208557 215605 212598 214723 215613 214915 211131

ENERGY DEMAND (HIGH DEMAND)
RESERVE %
194000 202730 215907 232101 249508 268221 288338 309675 332591 357202
6,7
2,0
-4,1
-10,1
-13,6
-20,7
-25,5
-30,4
-35,4
-40,9

0
5606
5606
5606
5606
5606
5606
372
1720
2337
3195
3195
3195
3195
5654
5654
5654
372
1720
2337
3195
8801
GRAND TOTAL
8801
8801
11260
11260
11260
THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
174653 174385 174781 176302 189005 186047 188211 189056 188358 184574
31092 32514 33082 33890 33841 33792 33753 36257 36257 36257
1562
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
207306 208459 209424 211752 224406 221399 223524 226873 226175 222391
RESERVE %
194000 202730 215907 232101 249508 268221 288338 309675 332591 357202
6,9
2,8
-3,0
-8,8
-10,1
-17,5
-22,5
-26,7
-32,0
-37,7

1147
2873
8032
24605
40607
44615
44615
44615
44615
44615
HYDRO TOTAL
523
1973
3756
6000
7388
7388
7388
7388
7388
7388
538
1395
2157
2601
2601
2601
2601
2601
2601
2601
2208
6241 13945 33206 50596 54604 54604 54604
GRAND TOTAL
POWER PLANTS
54604
54604
THERMAL TOTAL
1147
2873
8032
24605
46214
50222
50222
50222
50222
50222
HYDRO TOTAL
895
3692
6092
9195
10583
10583
10583
13042
13042
13042
538
1395
2157
2601
2601
2601
2601
2601
2601
2601
THERMAL TOTAL
2580
7960 16281 36400 59397 63405 63405 65864 65864 65864
GRAND TOTAL
PLANTS
THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
175799 177258 182813 200907 229612 230662 232826 233671 232973 229189
31615
34486
36837
39890
41229
41180
41141
43645
43645
43645
2100
2956
3718
4161
4161
4161
4161
4161
4161
4161
209514 214700 223368 244957 275002 276003 278128 281477 280779 276995
GRAND TOTAL
RESERVE %
194000 202730 215907 232101 249508 268221 288338 309675 332591 357202
8,0
5,9
3,5
46
5,5
10,2
2,9
-3,5
-9,1
-15,6
-22,5
Figure 13 : Development of Firm Generation Capacity of Existing Power Plants + State

Construction Granted by Licence and Expected to be in Service on Proposed Date and
Energy Demand (Case I - A)
400000
The yearinwhichenergyshortageisexpected
accordingtogenerationcapacitytotalof
existing,underconstructionandgrantedby
licencecapacities
350000
300000
GWh
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
2009
2010
EXISTING
2011
2012
2013
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
2014
2015
GRANTED BY LICENCE
2016
2017
2018
ENERGY DEMAND
Between the years of 2009 and 2018 with the addition of 3676 MW state owned capacity under
construction and 11189 MW private sector owned capacity under construction granted by licence and
expected to be in service on proposed date to the existing system, the total installed capacity will reach to
56382 MW in the year 2018.
In conclusion, the power plants of existing system, 3676 MW state owned under
construction and 11189 MW private sector owned under construction granted by licence
and expected to be in service on proposed date according to Scenario 1 will not cover High
Energy Demand according to Project Generation and Firm Generation starting from the
years 2017 and 2015 respectively.
47
Figure 14 : Development of Total Installed Capacity and Peak Demand

60000
50000
MW
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2009
2010
2011
THERMAL
2012
2013
HYDRO
2014
WIND+REN.
2015
2016
2017
2018
PEAK DEMAND
Table 30 : Development of Total Installed Capacity (Case I - A) High Demand Scenario 1
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
THERMAL
MW
%
27905
64
27750
62
28966
60
32094
60
34147
62
34147
62
34147
62
34147
61
34147
61
34147
61
HYDRO
MW
14886
16381
18058
19877
19877
19877
19877
21077
21077
21077
48
%
34
36
37
37
36
36
36
37
37
37
WIND+RENEWABLES
MW
%
695
2
880
2
1157
2
1157
2
1157
2
1157
2
1157
2
1157
2
1157
2
1157
2
TOTAL
MW
43485
45011
48182
53128
55182
55182
55182
56382
56382
56382
Figure 15 : Capacity Reserve, Project Generation Reserve and Firm Generation Reserve
100,0
90,0
80,0
70,0
60,0
(%)
50,0
40,0
30,0
20,0
10,0
0,0
-10,0
-20,0
-30,0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
CAPACITY RESERVE
45,4
44,1
44,8
48,5
43,5
33,5
24,2
18,1
10,0
2018
2,4
PROJECT GENERATION RESRVE
27,3
25,1
22,1
23,8
24,9
17,1
9,2
3,3
-4,1
-11,8
FIRM GENERATION RESRVE
8,0
5,9
3,5
5,5
10,2
2,9
-3,5
-9,1
-15,6
-22,4
As can be seen from the Figure 15, starting from the year 2015 the new additional capacity
is necessary to be comissioned in the system in order not to face energy shortage in the system
according to the case.
Figure 16 : Development of Project Generation, Firm Generation and Energy Demand
550000
450000
GWh
350000
250000
150000
50000
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
-50000
PROJECT GENERATION CAPACITY
FIRM GENERATION CAPACITY
49
DEMAND
VI.2. Case I B (High Demand Scenario 2)

State-owned under construction and
Private sector under construction granted by licence and expected to be in service on proposed date
based on January 2009 Progress Report of EPDK and prepared according to Scenario 2 by
EPDK,
considered with High Demand Series. By taking into consideration the effects of the economic crisis,
Demand Series have been revized by ETKB and the generation demand is expected to reach 202.7 TWh in
2010 and 357.2 TWh in 2018. The supply and demand situation according to these data is calculated.
According to above situation, peak demand can be covered in the all study period. When the generation
capacity is considered, the energy demand can not be covered in 2014 according to firm generation
capacity and in 2016 according to project generation capacity.
The development of the existing capacity, the state owned capacity under construction and the private
time covering the increasing demand by years is indicated on Table 31.
Beside this, not only the development of total installed capacity consisting of the existing, the state owned
under construction and the private sector owned under construction granted by licence and expected to be
in service on proposed date but also the development of the capacity reserves after covering the peak load
are submitted on Table 31 and the year is determined in which new generation facilities will be needed.
When the sum of existing capacity and state-owned capacity under construction are considered, the
capacity reserve is 41.5% in 2009, drops to 1% in 2015 and reaches to 17.9% in 2018.
together, capacity reserve is 44.8% in 2009, decreases to 5.8% in 2017 and -1.5% in 2018.
commissioned in the system starting from 2014, by considering the necessity of a certain amount of the
reserve in the system, in order not to come into existence of energy shortage in the system.
50
Table 31 :Installed Capacity and Peak Demand Balance

(Case I B) High DemandScenario2
(MW)
YEAR
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
THERMAL TOTAL
27557
27257
27257
27257
27257
27257
27257
27257
27257
27257
HYDRO TOTAL
13829
13829
13829
13829
13829
13829
13829
13829
13829
13829

GRAND TOTAL
432
432
432
432
432
432
432
432
432
432
41817
41517
41517
41517
41517
41517
41517
41517
41517
41517

PEAK LOAD DEMAND
RESERVE %
29900
31246
33276
35772
38455
41339
44440
47728
51260
55053
39,9
32,9
24,8
16,1
8,0
0,4
-6,6
-13,0
-19,0
-24,6

THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
840
840
840
840
840
840
495
966
1636
1636
1636
1636
1636
2836
2836
2836
495
966
1636
1636
2476
2476
2476
3676
3676
3676

THERMAL TOTAL
27557
27257
27257
27257
28097
28097
28097
28097
28097
28097
HYDRO TOTAL
14324
14794
15464
15464
15464
15464
15464
16664
16664
16664

GRAND TOTAL
432
432
432
432
432
432
432
432
432
432
42312
42483
43153
43153
43993
43993
43993
45193
45193
45193
PEAK LOAD DEMAND
RESERVE %
29900
31246
33276
35772
38455
41339
44440
47728
51260
55053
41,5
36,0
29,7
20,6
14,4
6,4
-1,0
-5,3
-11,8
-17,9

348
426
1710
2318
4556
4556
4556
4556
4556
4556
HYDRO TOTAL
413
1306
2262
3856
3856
3856
3856
3856
3856
3856
223
426
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
983
2158
4607
6809
9047
9047
9047
9047
GRAND TOTAL
POWER PLANTS
9047
9047
THERMAL TOTAL
THERMAL TOTAL
348
426
1710
2318
5396
5396
5396
5396
5396
5396
HYDRO TOTAL
908
2272
3898
5492
5492
5492
5492
6692
6692
6692
223
426
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
1478
3123
6243
8445 11523 11523 11523 12723 12723 12723
GRAND TOTAL
POWER PLANTS
THERMAL TOTAL
27905
27683
28966
29574
32653
32653
32653
32653
32653
32653
HYDRO TOTAL
14736
16100
17726
19320
19320
19320
19320
20520
20520
20520
655
857
1067
1067
1067
1067
1067
1067
1067
1067
43295
44640
47760
49962
53040
53040
53040
54240
54240
54240
29900
31246
33276
35772
38455
41339
44440
47728
51260
55053
44,8
42,9
43,5
39,7
37,9
28,3
19,4
13,6
5,8
-1,5
GRAND TOTAL
PEAK LOAD DEMAND
RESERVE %
51
The annual development of total installed capacity composed of existing capacity, state
owned capacity under construction and private sector owned capacity under construction granted
by licence and expected to be in service on proposed time is on Figure 17. On the figure, when the
installed capacity development is compared with peak demand, the peak demand can not be
covered with the total installed capacity which are composed of the existing, under construction
and granted by licence and expected to be in service on proposed time starting from the year
2018.
Demand
(Case I - B) High Demand-Scenario 2
60000
The year in which peak demand can not be covered by sum of

existing, under construction and granted by licence capacities
50000
MW
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2009
2010
EXISTING
2011
2012
2013
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
2014
2015
GRANTED BY LICENCE
2016
2017
2018
PEAK DEMAND
The development of total project generation capacities of existing, state owned under construction and
value of -6.6% in 2014 and reaches to 29.5% in 2018.
If the project generations of existing power plants, state owned power plants under
construction and private sector owned power plants under construction granted by licence and
expected to be in service on proposed date are examined together, 27.1% of energy reserve is
calculated in 2009, by decreasing the reserve becomes negative value of 1% in 2016 and drops to
15.6% in 2018.
52
Table 32 : Project Generation Capacity and Energy Demand Balance 2009-2018

(Case I-B) High Demand Scenario 2
(GWh)
YEAR
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018

THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
193827 192543 191767 192089 191676 190020 190882 192248 191029 187254
48032 48129 48080 48030 47981 47932 47893 47938 47938 47938
1715
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
GRAND TOTAL
243574 242387 241561 241833 241371 239666 240490 241900 240681 236906

RESERVE %
194000 202730 215907 232101 249508 268221 288338 309675 332591 357202
11,9
4,2
-3,3
-10,6
-16,6
-21,9
-27,6
-33,7

0
0
0
THERMAL TOTAL
517
2481
3586
HYDRO TOTAL
0
0
0
0
5086
0
5880
5086
0
5880
5086
0
5880
5086
0
5880
8919
0
5880
8919
0
5880
8919
0
5086
10966
10966
10966
14799
14799
14799
GRAND TOTAL
25,6
517
19,6
2481
3586

THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
193827 192543 191767 192089 197556 195900 196762 198128 196909 193134
48549 50610 51666 53116 53067 53018 52979 56857 56857 56857
1715
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
GRAND TOTAL
244091 244868 245147 246919 252337 250632 251456 256699 255480 251705
RESERVE %
194000 202730 215907 232101 249508 268221 288338 309675 332591 357202
25,8
20,8
13,5
6,4
1,1
-6,6
-12,8
-17,1
-23,2
-29,5

THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
1147
825
486
2613
3404
1401
7772
6932
2219
14771
11270
2609
25139
13835
2609
33346
13835
2609
33346
13835
2609
33346
13835
2609
33346
13835
2609
33346
13835
2609
GRAND TOTAL
2458
7418
16923
28650
41582
49790
49790
49790
49790
49790

POWER PLANTS
1147
2613
7772 14771 31019 39226 39226 39226
THERMAL TOTAL
1342
5885
10518
16356 18921 18921 18921 22754
HYDRO TOTAL
486
1401
2219
2609
2609
2609
2609
2609
39226
22754
2609
39226
22754
2609
64589
64589
GRAND TOTAL
2975
9899
20509
33736
52548
60756
60756
64589
PLANTS
194974 195156 199539 206859 222694 229246 230109 231474 230255 226480
THERMAL TOTAL
49374 54015 58598 64387 66902 66853 66814 70692 70692 70692
HYDRO TOTAL
2201
3115
3933
4323
4323
4323
4323
4323
4323
4323
GRAND TOTAL
246549 252285 262070 275569 293919 300422 301246 306489 305270 301495
RESERVE %
27,1
24,4
21,4
53
18,7
17,8
12,0
4,5
-1,0
-8,2
-15,6
The annual development of the project generation capacities of existing power plants, state owned power
plants under construction and private sector owned power plants under construction granted by licence
and expected to be in service on proposed date is on Figure 18 and the firm generation of the same capacity
expected to be in service on proposed date .

Construction Granted by Licence and Expected to be in Service on Proposed Time and
Energy Demand
(Case I - B) High Demand Scenario 2
400000
The year in which energy
demand can not be covered
by the project generation
capacity total
350000
300000
GWh
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
2009
2010
EXISTING
2011
2012
2013
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
2014
2015
GRANTED BY LICENCE
2016
2017
2018
ENERGY DEMAND
The development of total firm generation capacities of existing, state owned under
When the total firm generation of existing power plants and state owned power plants under
construction is considered, energy reserve is 6.9% in 2009, drops to negative value of 3% in 2011 and
reaches to 37.7% in 2018.
If the total firm generation of existing power plants, state owned power plants under construction and
private sector owned under construction power plants granted by licence and expected to be in service on
proposed date is examined, 7.9% of energy reserve is calculated in 2009, by decreasing the energy reserve
New additional capacity will be necessary to be commissioned in the system starting from 2014 in the case
of considering of the covering of the demand with the firm energy generation according to the case.
54
Between the years of 2009 and 2018 with the addition of 3676 MW state-owned capacity under
construction and 9047 MW private sector capacity under construction granted by licence and expected to
be in service on proposed date to the existing system, the total installed capacity will reach to 54240 MW
in the year 2018.
construction and 9047 MW private sector owned under construction granted by licence and
expected to be in service on proposed date according to Scenario 2 will not cover High
55
Table 33 : Firm Generation Capacity and Energy Demand Balance 2009-2018 (Case I - B)
High Demand Scenario 2
(GWh)
YEAR
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018

THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
174653 174385 174781 176302 183398 180440 182605 183450 182751 178968
30720
30794
30745
30695
30646
30597
30558
30603
30603
30603
1562
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
206934 206740 207087 208557 215605 212598 214723 215613 214915 211131

RESERVE %
194000 202730 215907 232101 249508 268221 288338 309675 332591 357202
6,7
2,0
-4,1
-10,1
-13,6
-20,7
-25,5
-30,4
-35,4 -40,9

0
5606
5606
5606
5606
5606
5606
372
1720
2337
3195
3195
3195
3195
5654
5654
5654
372
1720
2337
3195
8801
GRAND TOTAL
8801
8801
11260
11260
11260
THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
174653 174385 174781 176302 189005 186047 188211 189056 188358 184574
31092 32514 33082 33890 33841 33792 33753 36257 36257 36257
1562
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
207306 208459 209424 211752 224406 221399 223524 226873 226175 222391
RESERVE %
194000 202730 215907 232101 249508 268221 288338 309675 332591 357202
6,9
2,8
-3,0
-8,8
-10,1
-17,5
-22,5
-26,7
-32,0
-37,7

1147
2613
7772
14771
25139
33346
33346
33346
33346
33346
HYDRO TOTAL
388
1600
3258
5297
6502
6502
6502
6502
6502
6502
438
1252
1963
2299
2299
2299
2299
2299
2299
2299
1972
5465 12993 22367 33940 42148 42148 42148
GRAND TOTAL
POWER PLANTS
42148
42148
THERMAL TOTAL
1147
2613
7772
14771
30745
38953
38953
38953
38953
38953
HYDRO TOTAL
760
3320
5595
8492
9697
9697
9697
12156
12156
12156
438
1252
1963
2299
2299
2299
2299
2299
2299
2299
THERMAL TOTAL
2344
7184 15330 25561 42741 50949 50949 53408 53408 53408
GRAND TOTAL
PLANTS
THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
175799 176998 182553 191072 214143 219393 221558 222402 221704 217921
31479
34114
36340
39187
40343
40294
40255
42759
42759
42759
2000
2812
3524
3860
3860
3860
3860
3860
3860
3860
209278 213924 222416 234119 258346 263547 265672 269021 268323 264539
GRAND TOTAL
RESERVE %
194000 202730 215907 232101 249508 268221 288338 309675 332591 357202
7,9
5,5
3,0
56
0,9
3,5
-1,7
-7,9
-13,1
-19,3
-25,9

Energy Demand
400000
Theyearinwhichenergydemand cannotbecoveredby
thetotalprojectgenerationcapacitiesofexisting,under
constructiionandgrantedbylicence.
350000
300000
GWh
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
2009
2010
EXISTING
2011
2012
2013
2014
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
2015
2016
GRANTED BY LICENCE
2017
2018
ENERGY DEMAND
In accordance with Case 1 B the breakdown of the total installed capacity to thermal, hydro and wind
resources by year is shown on Table 34 and Figure 20.
Table 34 : Development of Total Installed Capacity (Case I - B) High Demand Scenario 2
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
THERMAL
MW
%
27905
64
27683
62
28966
61
29574
59
32653
62
32653
62
32653
62
32653
60
32653
60
32653
60
HYDRO
MW
14736
16100
17726
19320
19320
19320
19320
20520
20520
20520
57
%
34
36
37
39
36
36
36
38
38
38
WIND+RENEWABLES
MW
%
655
2
857
2
1067
2
1067
2
1067
2
1067
2
1067
2
1067
2
1067
2
1067
2
TOTAL
MW
43295
44640
47760
49962
53040
53040
53040
54240
54240
54240
Figure 20 : Development of Total Installed Capacity and Peak Demand

80000
70000
60000
MW
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
THERMAL
2013
HYDRO
2014
2015
2016
WIND+REN.
2017
2018
PEAK DEMAND
100,0
90,0
80,0
70,0
60,0
(%)
50,0
40,0
30,0
20,0
10,0
0,0
-10,0
-20,0
-30,0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
CAPACITY RESERVE
44,8
42,9
43,5
39,7
37,9
28,3
19,4
13,7
5,8
2018
-1,5
PROJECT GENERATION RESRVE
27,1
24,5
21,4
18,7
17,8
12,0
4,5
-1,0
-8,2
-15,6
FIRM GENERATION RESRVE
7,9
5,5
3,0
0,9
3,6
-1,7
-7,9
-13,1
-19,3
-25,9
is necessary to be comissioned to the system in order not to face energy shortage according to the
case.
58
Figure 22 : Development of Project Generation, Firm Generation and Energy Demand

400000
350000
300000
GWh
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
PROJECT GENERATION CAPACITY
2014
2015
FIRM GENERATION CAPACITY
59
2016
2017
DEMAND
2018
VI.3. Case II A (Low Demand Scenario 1)

proposed date based on January 2009 Progress Raport of EPDK and prepared according to
Scenario 1 by EPDK,
and besides, Low Demand, by taking into consideration the effects of the economical crisis, is revized by
ETKB and therefore, the generation demand to reach 202.7 TWh in 2010 and 335.8 TWh in 2018 and so
the results about supply and demand situation and how to cover demand are given. According to above
situation, peak demand can be covered in the all period. When the generation capacity is considered, the
energy demand can not be covered in 2016 according to firm generation capacity and in 2018 according to
project generation capacity.
time, meeting the increasing demand by years is indicated on Table 35.
Beside this, not only the development of total installed capacity consisting of the existing, the state-owned
under construction and the private sector under construction granted by licence and expected to be in
service on proposed date but also the development of the capacity reserves after covering the peak load
are submitted on Table 35. Therefore the years in which new generation facilities are necessary will be
able to be determined.
When the sum of existing capacity and state owned capacity under construction are considered, the
capacity reserve is 41.5% in 2009 and 3% in 2015, drops to negative value -0.8% in 2016 and reaches to
17.9% in 2018.
60
Table 35 :Installed Capacity and Peak Demand Balance (Case II A) Low DemandScenario1
(MW)
YEAR
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
THERMAL TOTAL
27557
27257
27257
27257
27257
27257
27257
27257
27257
27257
HYDRO TOTAL
13829
13829
13829
13829
13829
13829
13829
13829
13829
13829
432
432
432
432
432
432
432
432
432
432
41817
41517
41517
41517
41517
41517
41517
41517
41517
41517

GRAND TOTAL

PEAK LOAD DEMAND
RESERVE %
29900
31246
32964
35173
37529
40044
42727
45546
48553
51757
39,9
32,9
25,9
18,0
10,6
3,7
-2,8
-8,8
-14,5
-19,8

0
840
840
840
840
840
840
495
966
1636
1636
1636
1636
1636
2836
2836
2836
495
966
1636
1636
2476
GRAND TOTAL
2476
2476
3676
3676
3676
THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
THERMAL TOTAL
27557
27257
27257
27257
28097
28097
28097
28097
28097
28097
HYDRO TOTAL
14324
14794
15464
15464
15464
15464
15464
16664
16664
16664
432
432
432
432
432
432
432
432
432
432
42312
42483
43153
43153
43993
43993
43993
45193
45193
45193

GRAND TOTAL
PEAK LOAD DEMAND
RESERVE %
29900
31246
32964
35173
37529
40044
42727
45546
48553
51757
41,5
36,0
30,9
22,7
17,2
9,9
3,0
-0,8
-6,9
-12,7

THERMAL TOTAL
348
493
1710
4837
6051
6051
6051
6051
6051
6051
HYDRO TOTAL
562
1587
2594
4413
4413
4413
4413
4413
4413
4413

GRAND TOTAL
263
448
725
725
725
725
725
725
725
725
1173
2528
5029
9976
11189
11189
11189
11189
11189
11189

THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
348
493
1710
4837
6891
6891
6891
6891
6891
6891
1057
2552
4230
6049
6049
6049
6049
7249
7249
7249
263
448
725
725
725
725
725
725
725
725
1668
3494
6665 11611 13665 13665 13665 14865 14865 14865
GRAND TOTAL
POWER PLANTS
THERMAL TOTAL
27905
27750
28966
32094
34147
34147
34147
34147
34147
34147
HYDRO TOTAL
14886
16381
18058
19877
19877
19877
19877
21077
21077
21077
695
880
1157
1157
1157
1157
1157
1157
1157
1157
43485 45011 48182 53128 55182 55182 55182 56382 56382 56382
GRAND TOTAL
PEAK LOAD DEMAND
RESERVE %
29900
31246
32964
35173
37529
40044
42727
45546
48553
51757
45,4
44,1
46,2
51,0
47,0
37,8
29,1
23,8
16,1
8,9
61
The annual development of total installed capacity composed of existing capacity, state-owned
capacity under construction and private sector capacity under construction granted by licence and
expected to be in service on proposed time is on Figure 23.
Construction Granted by Licence and Expected to be in Service on Proposed Time + New
Additional Capacity and Peak Demand
(Case II - A) Low Demand-Scenario 1
60000
50000
MW
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2009
2010
EXISTING
2011
2012
2013
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
2014
2015
GRANTED BY LICENCE
2016
2017
2018
PEAK DEMAND
value of -3.5% in 2014 and reaches to 25% in 2018.
If the project generations of existing power plants, state owned power plants under construction and private
sector power owned plants under construction granted by licence and expected to be in service on proposed
date are examined together, 27.3% of energy reserve is calculated in 2009, by decreasing the reserve
becomes negative value of 6.2% in 2018.
62
Table 36 : Project Generation Capacity and Energy Demand Balance 2009-2018 (Case II-A)
Low Demand Scenario 1
(GWh)
YEAR
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018

THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
193827 192543 191767 192089 191676 190020 190882 192248 191029 187254
48032
48129
48080
48030
47981
47932
47893
47938
47938
47938
1715
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
243574 242387 241561 241833 241371 239666 240490 241900 240681 236906

ENERGY DEMAND (LOW DEMAND)
RESERVE %
194000 202730 213880 228210 243500 259815 277222 295519 315023 335815
25,6
19,6
12,9
6,0
-0,9
-7,8
-13,3
-18,1
-23,6
-29,5

THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
5880
5880
5880
5880
5880
5880
517
2481
3586
5086
5086
5086
5086
8919
8919
8919
517
2481
3586
5086
10966
10966
10966
14799
14799
14799

THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
193827 192543 191767 192089 197556 195900 196762 198128 196909 193134
48549
50610
51666
53116
53067
53018
52979
56857
56857
56857
1715
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
244091 244868 245147 246919 252337 250632 251456 256699 255480 251705
RESERVE %
194000 202730 213880 228210 243500 259815 277222 295519 315023 335815
25,8
20,8
14,6
8,2
3,6
-3,5
-9,3
-13,1
-18,9
-25,0

THERMAL TOTAL
1147
2873
8032
24605
40607
44615
44615
44615
44615
44615
HYDRO TOTAL
1113
4197
7990
12766
15719
15719
15719
15719
15719
15719
598
1564
2447
2964
2964
2964
2964
2964
2964
2964
2858
8634
18470
40335
59291
63298
63298
63298
63298
63298
THERMAL TOTAL
1147
2873
8032
24605
46487
50495
50495
50495
50495
50495
HYDRO TOTAL
1630
6678
11576
17852
20805
20805
20805
24638
24638
24638
GRAND TOTAL
POWER PLANTS
598
1564
2447
2964
2964
2964
2964
2964
2964
2964
3375
11115
22056
45421
70257
74264
74264
78097
78097
78097
GRAND TOTAL
PLANTS
THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
194974 195416 199799 216694 238163 240515 241378 242743 241524 237749
49662
54807
59657
65882
68787
68738
68699
72577
72577
72577
2313
3278
4161
4678
4678
4678
4678
4678
4678
4678
246949 253501 263617 287254 311628 313931 314754 319998 318779 315004
GRAND TOTAL
RESERVE %
194000 202730 213880 228210 243500 259815 277222 295519 315023 335815
27,3
25,0
23,3
63
25,9
28,0
20,8
13,5
8,3
1,2
-6,2
expected to be in service on proposed date according to Scenario 1 is on Figure 24 and the firm generation
of the same capacity composition is on Figure 25. The demand can not be covered with the total project
generation in 2018 and with the total firm generation in 2016 with the capacities of existing power plants,
state-owned power plants under construction and private sector power plants under construction granted by
licence and expected to be in service on proposed date .

Energy Demand (Case II - A)
500000
450000
400000
350000
GWh
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
2009
2010
EXISTING
2011
2012
2013
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
2014
2015
2016
GRANTED BY LICENCE
2017
2018
ENERGY DEMAND
The development of total firm generation composed of existing, state owned under
construction is considered, energy reserve is 6.9% in 2009, drops to negative value of 2.1% in 2011 and
proposed date is examined, 8% of energy reserve is calculated in 2009, by decreasing the energy reserve
Although the shortage of the energy begins in 2016, because of not enough energy reserve to cover the
energy demand in 2015 according to the firm energy generations, new additional capacity will be
necessary to be comissioned in the system starting from the year 2015.
64
Table 37 : Firm Generation Capacity and Energy Demand Balance 2006-2015 (Case II - A)
(GWh)
YEAR
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018

THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
174653 174385 174781 176302 183398 180440 182605 183450 182751 178968
30720
30794
30745
30695
30646
30597
30558
30603
30603
30603
1562
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
206934 206740 207087 208557 215605 212598 214723 215613 214915 211131

RESERVE %
194000 202730 213880 228210 243500 259815 277222 295519 315023 335815
6,7
2,0
-3,2
-8,6
-11,5
-18,2
-22,5
-27,0
-31,8
-37,1

THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
5606
5606
5606
5606
5606
5606
372
1720
2337
3195
3195
3195
3195
5654
5654
5654
372
1720
2337
3195
8801
8801
8801
11260
11260
11260

THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
174653 174385 174781 176302 189005 186047 188211 189056 188358 184574
31092
32514
33082
33890
33841
33792
33753
36257
36257
36257
1562
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
207306 208459 209424 211752 224406 221399 223524 226873 226175 222391
RESERVE %
194000 202730 213880 228210 243500 259815 277222 295519 315023 335815
6,9
2,8
-2,1
-7,2
-7,8
-14,8
-19,4
-23,2
-28,2
-33,8

THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
1147
2873
8032
24605
40607
44615
44615
44615
44615
44615
523
1973
3756
6000
7388
7388
7388
7388
7388
7388
538
1395
2157
2601
2601
2601
2601
2601
2601
2601
2208
6241
13945
33206
50596
54604
54604
54604
54604
54604
1147
2873
8032
24605
46214
50222
50222
50222
50222
50222
HYDRO TOTAL
895
3692
6092
9195
10583
10583
10583
13042
13042
13042
538
1395
2157
2601
2601
2601
2601
2601
2601
2601
GRAND TOTAL
POWER PLANTS
THERMAL TOTAL
2580
7960 16281 36400 59397 63405 63405 65864 65864 65864
GRAND TOTAL
PLANTS
THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
175799 177258 182813 200907 229612 230662 232826 233671 232973 229189
31615
34486
36837
39890
41229
41180
41141
43645
43645
43645
2100
2956
3718
4161
4161
4161
4161
4161
4161
4161
209514 214700 223368 244957 275002 276003 278128 281477 280779 276995
GRAND TOTAL
RESERVE %
194000 202730 213880 228210 243500 259815 277222 295519 315023 335815
8,0
5,9
4,4
65
7,3
12,9
6,2
0,3
-4,8
-10,9
-17,5

Energy Demand (Case II - A)
450000
400000
350000
300000
GWh
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
2009
2010
EXISTING
2011
2012
2013
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
2014
2015
LSANS ALMI
2016
2017
2018
ENERGY DEMAND
Between the years of 2009 and 2018 with the addition of 3676 MW state owned capacity under
construction and 11189 MW private sector owned capacity under construction granted by licence and
expected to be in service on proposed date to the existing system, the total installed capacity will reach to
56382 MW in the year 2018.
construction and 11189 MW private sector owned under construction granted by licence
and expected to be in service on proposed date according to Scenario 1 will not cover Low
66
Figure 26 : Development of Total Installed Capacity and Peak Demand (Case II - A)

60000
50000
MW
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2009
2010
2011
THERMAL
2012
2013
HYDRO
2014
2015
WIND+REN.
2016
2017
2018
PEAK DEMAND
Table 38 : Development of Total Installed Capacity (Case II - A) Low Demand Scenario 1
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
THERMAL
MW
%
27905
64
27750
62
28966
60
32094
60
34147
62
34147
62
34147
62
34147
61
34147
61
34147
61
HYDRO
MW
14886
16381
18058
19877
19877
19877
19877
21077
21077
21077
67
%
34
36
37
37
36
36
36
37
37
37
WIND+RENEWABLES
MW
%
695
2
880
2
1157
2
1157
2
1157
2
1157
2
1157
2
1157
2
1157
2
1157
2
TOTAL
MW
43485
45011
48182
53128
55182
55182
55182
56382
56382
56382
(Case II - A) Low Demand Scenario 1
70,0
60,0
50,0
40,0
30,0
(%)
20,0
10,0
0,0
-10,0
-20,0
-30,0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
CAPACITY RESERVE
45,4
44,1
46,2
51,1
47,0
37,8
29,2
23,8
16,1
2018
8,9
PROJECT GENERATION RESERVE
27,3
25,1
23,3
25,9
28,0
20,8
13,5
8,3
1,2
-6,2
FIRM GENERATION RESERVE
8,0
5,9
4,4
7,3
12,9
6,2
0,3
-4,7
-10,9
-17,5
is necessary to be comissioned in the system not to come into existence of energy shortage in the
system according to the case.
Figure 28: Development of Project Generation, Firm Generation and Energy Demand
(Case II - A) Low Demand Scenario 1
500000
450000
400000
GWh
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
2009
2010
2011
PROJECT
2012
2013
2014
FIRM
68
2015
2016
DEMAND
2017
2018
VI.4. Case II B (Low Demand Scenario 2)

proposed date based on January 2009 Progress Raport of EPDK and prepared according to
Scenario 2 by EPDK,
and besides, Low Demand, by taking into consideration the effects of the economical crisis, is revized by
ETKB and therefore, the generation demand to reach 202.7 TWh in 2010 and 335.8 TWh in 2018 and so
the results about supply and demand situation and how to cover demand are given. According to above
situation, peak demand can be covered in the all period. When the generation capacity is considered, the
energy demand can not be covered in 2015 according to firm generation capacity and in 2017 according to
project generation capacity.
time, meeting the increasing demand by years is indicated on Table 39.
Beside this, not only the development of total installed capacity consisting of the existing, the state-owned
under construction and the private sector under construction granted by licence and expected to be in
service on proposed date but also the development of the capacity reserves after covering the peak load
are submitted on Table 39. Therefore the years in which new generation facilities are necessary will be
able to be determined.
When the sum of existing capacity and state owned capacity under construction are considered, the
capacity reserve is 41.5% in 2009, decreases to 3% in 2015, drops to the negative value of 0.8% in 2016
and reaches to 12.7% in 2018.
69
Table 39 :Installed Capacity and Peak Demand Balance (Case II B) Low DemandScenario2
(MW)
YEAR
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
THERMAL TOTAL
27557
27257
27257
27257
27257
27257
27257
27257
27257
27257
HYDRO TOTAL
13829
13829
13829
13829
13829
13829
13829
13829
13829
13829
432
432
432
432
432
432
432
432
432
432
41817
41517
41517
41517
41517
41517
41517
41517
41517
41517

GRAND TOTAL

PEAK LOAD DEMAND
RESERVE %
29900
31246
32964
35173
37529
40044
42727
45546
48553
51757
39,9
32,9
25,9
18,0
10,6
3,7
-2,8
-8,8
-14,5
-19,8

THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
840
840
840
840
840
840
495
966
1636
1636
1636
1636
1636
2836
2836
2836
495
966
1636
1636
2476
2476
2476
3676
3676
3676

THERMAL TOTAL
27557
27257
27257
27257
28097
28097
28097
28097
28097
28097
HYDRO TOTAL
14324
14794
15464
15464
15464
15464
15464
16664
16664
16664
432
432
432
432
432
432
432
432
432
432
42312
42483
43153
43153
43993
43993
43993
45193
45193
45193

GRAND TOTAL
PEAK LOAD DEMAND
RESERVE %
29900
31246
32964
35173
37529
40044
42727
45546
48553
51757
41,5
36,0
30,9
22,7
17,2
9,9
3,0
-0,8
-6,9
-12,7

THERMAL TOTAL
348
426
1710
2318
4556
4556
4556
4556
4556
4556
HYDRO TOTAL
413
1306
2262
3856
3856
3856
3856
3856
3856
3856
223
426
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
983
2158
4607
6809
9047
9047
9047
GRAND TOTAL
9047
9047
9047
THERMAL TOTAL
348
426
1710
2318
5396
5396
5396
5396
5396
5396
HYDRO TOTAL
908
2272
3898
5492
5492
5492
5492
6692
6692
6692
223
426
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
1478
3123
6243
8445 11523 11523 11523 12723 12723 12723
GRAND TOTAL
POWER PLANTS
THERMAL TOTAL
27905
27683
28966
29574
32653
32653
32653
32653
32653
32653
HYDRO TOTAL
14736
16100
17726
19320
19320
19320
19320
20520
20520
20520
655
857
1067
1067
1067
1067
1067
1067
1067
1067
43295 44640 47760 49962 53040 53040 53040 54240 54240 54240
GRAND TOTAL
PEAK LOAD DEMAND
RESERVE %
29900
31246
32964
35173
37529
40044
42727
45546
48553
51757
44,8
42,9
44,9
42,0
41,3
32,5
24,1
19,1
11,7
4,8
70
The annual development of total installed capacity composed of existing capacity, state owned
capacity under construction and private sector owned capacity under construction granted by licence and
expected to be in service on proposed time is given on Figure 29.

Demand
(Case II - B) Low Demand-Scenario 2
60000
50000
MW
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2009
2010
EXISTING
2011
2012
2013
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
2014
2015
GRANTED BY LICENCE
2016
2017
2018
PEAK DEMAND
construction are considered, the energy reserve is 25.8% in 2009 and drops to negative value of -3.6% in
2014 and reaches to 25% in 2018.
If the project generations of existing power plants, state owned power plants under
construction and private sector owned power plants under construction granted by licence and
expected to be in service on proposed date are examined together, 27.1% of energy reserve is
calculated in 2009, by decreasing the reserve becomes negative value of 3.1% in 2017 and drops
to 10.2% in 2018.
71
Table 40 : Project Generation Capacity and Energy Demand Balance 2009-2018 (Case II-B)
(GWh)
YEAR
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018

THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
193827 192543 191767 192089 191676 190020 190882 192248 191029 187254
48032
48129
48080
48030
47981
47932
47893
47938
47938
47938
1715
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
243574 242387 241561 241833 241371 239666 240490 241900 240681 236906

RESERVE %
194000 202730 213880 228210 243500 259815 277222 295519 315023 335815
25,6
19,6
12,9
6,0
-0,9
-7,8
-13,3
-18,1
-23,6
-29,5

THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
5880
5880
5880
5880
5880
5880
517
2481
3586
5086
5086
5086
5086
8919
8919
8919
517
2481
3586
5086
10966
10966
10966
14799
14799
14799

THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
193827 192543 191767 192089 197556 195900 196762 198128 196909 193134
48549
50610
51666
53116
53067
53018
52979
56857
56857
56857
1715
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
1714
244091 244868 245147 246919 252337 250632 251456 256699 255480 251705
RESERVE %
194000 202730 213880 228210 243500 259815 277222 295519 315023 335815
25,8
20,8
14,6
8,2
3,6
-3,5
-9,3
-13,1
-18,9
-25,0

1147
2613
7772
14771
25139
33346
33346
33346
33346
33346
HYDRO TOTAL
825
3404
6932
11270
13835
13835
13835
13835
13835
13835
486
1401
2219
2609
2609
2609
2609
2609
2609
2609
2458
7418 16923 28650 41582 49790 49790 49790
GRAND TOTAL
POWER PLANTS
49790
49790
THERMAL TOTAL
THERMAL TOTAL
1147
2613
7772
14771
31019
39226
39226
39226
39226
39226
HYDRO TOTAL
1342
5885
10518
16356
18921
18921
18921
22754
22754
22754
486
1401
2219
2609
2609
2609
2609
2609
2609
2609
2975
9899 20509 33736 52548 60756 60756 64589 64589 64589
GRAND TOTAL
PLANTS
THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
194974 195156 199539 206859 222694 229246 230109 231474 230255 226480
49374
54015
58598
64387
66902
66853
66814
70692
70692
70692
2201
3115
3933
4323
4323
4323
4323
4323
4323
4323
246549 252285 262070 275569 293919 300422 301246 306489 305270 301495
GRAND TOTAL
RESERVE %
194000 202730 213880 228210 243500 259815 277222 295519 315023 335815
27,1
24,4
22,5
72
20,8
20,7
15,6
8,7
3,7
-3,1
-10,2
expected to be in service on proposed date is on Figure 30 and the firm generation of the same capacity
expected to be in service on proposed date.

Energy Demand (Case II - B)
400000
350000
300000
GWh
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
2009
2010
EXISTING
2011
2012
2013
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
2014
2015
GRANTED BY LICENCE
2016
2017
2018
ENERGY DEMAND
The development of total firm generation composed of existing, state owned under
construction is considered, energy reserve is 6.9% in 2009, drops to negative value of 2.1% in 2011 and
proposed date is examined, 7.9% of energy reserve is calculated in 2009, by decreasing the energy reserve
construction and 9047 MW private sector owned under construction granted by licence and
expected to be in service on proposed date according to Scenario 2 will not cover Low
73
Table 41 : Firm Generation Capacity and Energy Demand Balance 2009-2018 (Case II - B)
(GWh)
YEAR
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018

THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
174653 174385 174781 176302 183398 180440 182605 183450 182751 178968
30720
30794
30745
30695
30646
30597
30558
30603
30603
30603
1562
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
206934 206740 207087 208557 215605 212598 214723 215613 214915 211131

RESERVE %
194000 202730 213880 228210 243500 259815 277222 295519 315023 335815
6,7
2,0
-3,2
-8,6
-11,5
-18,2
-22,5
-27,0
-31,8
-37,1

THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
5606
5606
5606
5606
5606
5606
372
1720
2337
3195
3195
3195
3195
5654
5654
5654
372
1720
2337
3195
8801
8801
8801
11260
11260
11260

THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
174653 174385 174781 176302 189005 186047 188211 189056 188358 184574
31092
32514
33082
33890
33841
33792
33753
36257
36257
36257
1562
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
1561
207306 208459 209424 211752 224406 221399 223524 226873 226175 222391
RESERVE %
194000 202730 213880 228210 243500 259815 277222 295519 315023 335815
6,9
2,8
-2,1
-7,2
-7,8
-14,8
-19,4
-23,2
-28,2
-33,8

1147
2613
7772
14771
25139
33346
33346
33346
33346
33346
HYDRO TOTAL
388
1600
3258
5297
6502
6502
6502
6502
6502
6502
438
1252
1963
2299
2299
2299
2299
2299
2299
2299
1972
5465 12993 22367 33940 42148 42148 42148
GRAND TOTAL
POWER PLANTS
42148
42148
THERMAL TOTAL
1147
2613
7772
14771
30745
38953
38953
38953
38953
38953
HYDRO TOTAL
760
3320
5595
8492
9697
9697
9697
12156
12156
12156
438
1252
1963
2299
2299
2299
2299
2299
2299
2299
THERMAL TOTAL
2344
7184 15330 25561 42741 50949 50949 53408 53408 53408
GRAND TOTAL
PLANTS
THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
175799 176998 182553 191072 214143 219393 221558 222402 221704 217921
31479
34114
36340
39187
40343
40294
40255
42759
42759
42759
2000
2812
3524
3860
3860
3860
3860
3860
3860
3860
209278 213924 222416 234119 258346 263547 265672 269021 268323 264539
GRAND TOTAL
RESERVE %
194000 202730 213880 228210 243500 259815 277222 295519 315023 335815
7,9
5,5
4,0
74
2,6
6,1
1,4
-4,2
-9,0
-14,8
-21,2

Energy Demand (Case II - B)
400000
350000
300000
GWh
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
2009
2010
EXISTING
2011
2012
2013
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
2014
2015
GRANTED BY LICENCE
2016
2017
2018
ENERGY DEMAND
In accordance with Case II B, breakdown of the total installed capacity to thermal,

hydro and wind resources by year is given on Table 42 and Figure 32.
Table 42 : Development of Total Installed Capacity (Case II - B) Low Demand Scenario 2
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
THERMAL
MW
%
27905
64
27683
62
28966
61
29574
59
32653
62
32653
62
32653
62
32653
60
32653
60
32653
60
HYDRO
MW
14736
16100
17726
19320
19320
19320
19320
20520
20520
20520
75
%
34
36
37
39
36
36
36
38
38
38
WIND+RENEWABLES
MW
%
655
2
857
2
1067
2
1067
2
1067
2
1067
2
1067
2
1067
2
1067
2
1067
2
TOTAL
MW
43295
44640
47760
49962
53040
53040
53040
54240
54240
54240
Figure 32 : Development of Total Installed Capacity and Peak Demand (Case II - B)

60000
50000
MW
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
THERMAL
2013
2014
HYDRO
2015
WIND+REN.
2016
2017
2018
PEAK DEMAND
(Case II - B) Low Demand Scenario 2
75,0
65,0
55,0
45,0
35,0
(%)
25,0
15,0
5,0
-5,0
-15,0
-25,0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
CAPACITY RESERVE
44,8
42,9
44,9
42,1
41,3
32,5
24,1
19,1
11,7
2018
4,8
PROJECT GENERATION RESERVE
27,1
24,5
22,5
20,8
20,7
15,6
8,7
3,7
-3,1
-10,2
FIRM GENERATION RESERVE
7,9
5,5
4,0
2,6
6,1
1,4
-4,2
-9,0
-14,8
-21,2
is necessary to be comissioned in the system not to come into existence of energy shortage in the
system according to the case.
76
Figure 34: Development of Project Generation, Firm Generation and Energy Demand
(Case II - B) Low Demand Scenario 2
500000
450000
400000
GWh
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
2009
2010
2011
PROJECT
2012
2013
2014
FIRM
2015
DEMAND
77
2016
2017
2018
VII. COMPARISON OF RESULTS

By taking into consideration of the capacities granted by licence by EPDK and expected to be in
comissioning in the period of the Capacity Projection, two different Scenarios, Scenario 1 and
Scenario 2, have been formed. As has been explained before it is expected that 11188.8 MW and
9047.1 MW additional capacities will be added to the system in the study period according to
Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 respectively. High and Low Demand series determined by ETKB have
been used for both two scenarios and so Suppy-Demand Balances are calculated according to the
Project and Firm Generation Capacities.
The capacities of the private sector owned under construction granted by licence and expected to
be in comissioning in the study period have accumulated for both two scenarios in the period of
the years of 2009 and 2013. Therefore as can be seen from Table 43, Table 44 and Figure 35,
reserve rates increase up to 2013 and then while demand increases reserve rates decrease sharply
because of no new additional capacity.
In the Chapter II the demand forecastes are explained detailed as High Demand series and Low
Demand series. The expected yearly average demand rates are about 7.5% and 6.5% for High
Demand and Low Demand respectively forward.
Rate of energy reserve is very important for reliability of system. In case if not only the demand
rates but also the capacities existing, under construction and granted by licence and expected to be
in comissioning in the period of study are realised as expected, the shortages of energy are
supposed in accordance with;
Scenario 1 for the project generation capacity and both high and low demand series in
2017 and 2018 respectively,
Scenario 1 for the firm generation capacity and both high and low demand series in 2015
and 2016 respectively,
and 2017 respectively,
and 2015 respectively.
In accordance with not only the results of Scenario 2 which is formed by expecting much less
capacities to be comissioned in the system in the period of study and but also realization of the
demand as expected, it is supposed that the electricity demand will not be able to be covered in
2014. Therefore necessary measures should be realized by taking into consideration of
construction duration of investment facilities that will be comissioned in the system after 2014 in
order to be completed their licence procedures and to be started their investments as starting from
2010. If there is any delay in comissioning of the new additional capacity composed of under
construction and granted by licence and expected to be comissioned in the study period, the rates
of energy shortage will increase by year as can be seen from the table and figure below.
78
Table 43: Reserve Rates for both two Scenarios in accordance with Project Generation
Capacity (%)
SCENARIO 1
2009
SCENARIO
1
HIGH DEMAND
LOW DEMAND
SCENARIO 2
2010
LOW DEMAND
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
%
2018
27,3
25,1
22,1
23,8
24,9
17,1
9,2
3,3
-4,1
-11,8
27,3
25,1
23,3
25,9
28,0
20,8
13,5
8,3
1,2
-6,2
2009
SCENARIO
2
HIGH DEMAND
2011
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
%
2018
27,1
24,5
21,4
18,7
17,8
12,0
4,5
-1,0
-8,2
-15,6
27,1
24,5
22,5
20,8
20,7
15,6
8,7
3,7
-3,1
-10,2
Table 44: Reserve Rates for both two Scenarios in accordance with Firm Generation
Capacity (%)
%
SCENARIO 1
2009
SCENARIO
1
HIGH DEMAND
LOW DEMAND
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
8,0
5,9
3,5
5,5
10,2
2,9
-3,5
-9,1
-15,6
-22,4
8,0
5,9
4,4
7,3
12,9
6,2
0,3
-4,7
-10,9
-17,5
%
SCENARIO 2
2009
SCENARIO
2
HIGH DEMAND
LOW DEMAND
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
7,9
5,5
3,0
0,9
3,6
-1,7
-7,9
-13,1
-19,3
-25,9
7,9
5,5
4,0
2,6
6,1
1,4
-4,2
-9,0
-14,8
-21,2
Figure 35: Reserve Rates for both two Scenarios in accordance with Project and Firm
Generation Capacities (%)
SCENERIO 1
SCENERIO 2
30,0
25,0
20,0
15,0
10,0
5,0
0,0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
-5,0
-10,0
-15,0
-20,0
PROJECT HIGH DEMAND

FIRM HIGH DEMAND
-25,0
PROJECT LOW DEMAND

FIRM LOW DEMAND
-30,0
79
PROJECT HIGH DEMAND

FIRM HIGH DEMAND
PROJECT LOW DEMAND

FIRM LOW DEMAND
2017
2018
VIII. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

In case if Base Energy Demand prepared by ETKB is realized;
with addition of 14865 MW new installed capacity composed of 3676 MW state owned
under construction and 11189 MW private sector owned under construction granted by
licence (Scenario 1) and proposed to be in comissioning up to 2013 by EPDK to the
existing power system as end of the year 2008, it is calculated that the expected electricity
demands according to project generation capacity and firm generation capacity will not be
covered as from the years of 2017 and 2015 respectively.
with addition of 12723 MW new installed capacity composed of 3676 MW state owned
under construction and 9047 MW private sector owned under construction granted by
licence (Scenario 2) and proposed to be in comissioning up to 2013 by EPDK to the
existing power system as end of the year 2008, it is calculated that the expected electricity
demands according to project generation capacity and firm generation capacity will not be
covered as from the years of 2016 and 2014 respectively.
As mentioned in the Assumptions Section of this report before, balance tables and years of
demand not covered have been calculated in accordance with the following assumptions :
all of the power plants, connected to the system, which are existing, state owned under
construction and private sector owned under construction granted by licence will generate
electricity as much as the amount of their project and firm generation capacities,
there will be no constraint on fuel supply,
related to hydro conditions, hydro power plants will generate the amount of electricity as
expected and
power plants which are granted by licence and under construction will be in service on
proposed date.
Although contracts of some BOT Projects with TETA will expire in the period of the projection,
after expired contract it is supposed that these plants will continue to produce electicity as much
as produced before according to the new statue. So the balance tables has been prepared
according to this assumption.
But different realization of any assumption from the Assumptions mentioned in The Capacity
Projection Study will affect the results calculated in the report and so the years of demand not
covered will be able to change.
The capacities in the scope of the BOT, TOR and BO models guaranteed for purchasing of their
electricity (take-or-pay contract) have been used almost fully productive, but it is seen clearly
from this study that some part of the state owned capacity couldnt have been used because of the
demand quantity and the load characteristics.
In case if ;
demand does not realize as estimated
water flow accumulated in hydro plants does not realize as estimated before,
some constrains are faced with in the supply and quality of fuel,
long term outages occur at power plants,
state owned and private sector owned plants which are under construction, are not become
in service on foreseen dates,
80
it is essentially necessary that capacity and energy reserves by primary energy resources should be
kept on certain amounts for reliable operation of the electricity system. Therefore, in order to
operate generation system with reserves before the overlap of demand with supply, necessary
measures should be adopted by taking into consideration of construction duration of investment
facilities in order to be completed their licence procedures and to be started their investments as
starting from 2010.
When the majority of new additional capacity comes from thermal resources, the total additional
capacity is lower but in case of hydro and wind intensity in the new additional capacity, the
amount of total new additional capacity is relatively higher. While a decision and a policy are
determined about the additional capacity to connect to the system, this situation should be
considered. Especially, this situation should be considered more sensitively for investments and
security of supply in electricity systems in which high demand increases are expected. In the case
of covering whole of required new capacity to be constructed in order to meet peak demand, from
thermal plants, the additional capacity will be about half of the same capacity that is totally
covered by hydro and renewable plants.
Moreover, not only in the market structure that investment decisions from the point of view of
resource types and commissioning years of power plants are given by investors and but also
especially in the electricity system that electricity demand is expected to increase with a high rate
as gradually after wearing to an end of effects of the economic crisis, how the necessary
investments break primary resources down is extremely important. In other words, it is very
important that how much suitable diversification policies of necessary generation in point of
primary resources are, should be investigated in order to meet the country demand with a reliable
reserve and for security of supply.
In addition in the market that demand is expected to increase with a high rate as gradually, it is
extremely important that required measures should be taken in order to have plants both granted
by licence and applied for licence been in operation on proposed date for security of supply.
Especially since the end of 1990s increasing of the private sectors installed capacities, huge
amount of these capacities being thermal and also guaranteed with take or pay contracts have
caused the state owned power plants to be operated limited related to low demand. In actual
conditions, when generation capacity is higher than demand, extra capacities arent used.
Moreover when all of the power plants are in equal conditions, operation order of the power
plants starts from the plants with the cheapest generation cost to the most expensive one. However
since the specific capacity has privileged rights or generation priority, electricity is generated
from this capacity first without taking into consideration the generation cost. Therefore not only
total electricity demand but also load profile showing levels of electricity consumption should be
kept in mind while generation priority or privileged rights are given to the plants. At least, total
amount of the capacity to which the priority is given should be paid attention to be less than level
of the base load of the electricity system.
81
IX.
ANNEXES
82
ANNEX 1 : EXISTING SYSTEM (As end of year 2008)

EA THERMAL POWER PLANTS
Installed
Capacity
MW
HARD
COAL
NATURAL
GAS
LIGNITE
EA
DIESEL
FUEL OIL
NAME OF THE PLANT
AMBARLI
Project
Generation
GWh
Firm
Generation
(for 2008)
GWh
630,0
4410
2425
HOPA
50,0
350
200
TOTAL
680,0
4760
2625
ALAA-EVRM
180,0
1260
1071
1,0
TOTAL
181,0
1260
1071
ATALAZI-B
300,0
1950
1967
TOTAL
300,0
1950
1967
AN 1-2
320,0
2080
2110
HAKKAR UKURCA
ELBSTAN A
1355,0
8808
4306
ELBSTAN B 1-4
1440,0
9360
8797
KANGAL
457,0
2971
1975
ORHANEL
210,0
1365
1167
SEYTMER
600,0
3900
3745
TUNBLEK
365,0
2373
1624
TOTAL
4747,0
30856
23724
AMBARLI-D.GAZ
1350,9
9456
8046
BURSA D.GAZ
1432,0
10024
8581
TOTAL
2782,9
19480
16627
8690,9
58305,8
46014,0
Project
Generation
GWh
Firm
Generation
(for 2008)
GWh
3390
EA THERMAL TOTAL
EA AFFILIATED PARTNERSHIPS POWER PLANTS

Installed
Capacity
MW
LIGNITE
KEMERKY
NATURAL
GAS
EA AFFILIATED PARTNERSHIPS
NAME OF THE PLANT
630,0
4095
SOMA A
44,0
286
235
SOMA B
990,0
6435
4859
YATAAN
630,0
4095
3542
YENKY
420,0
2730
1291
TOTAL
2714,0
17641
13317
HAMTABAT
1120,0
7840
6031
TOTAL
1120,0
7840
6031
3834,0
25481
19348
EA AFFILIATED PARTNERSHIPS TOTAL
83
EA HYDRO POWER PLANTS

Installed
Capacity
MW
NAME OF THE PLANT
62,0
150
10
ALMUS
27,0
100
30
ALTINKAYA
702,6
1632
740
ASLANTA
138,0
569
320
ATATRK
2405,0
8100
5230
BATMAN
198,0
483
200
BERKE
510,0
1669
790
BORKA
300,6
1039
600
ATALAN
168,9
596
330
AMLIGZE
32,0
102
68
DEMRKPR
69,0
80
32
150
56,4
257
110,0
298
220
74,5
314
200
GEZENDE
159,4
528
130
GKEKAYA
278,4
400
240
HASAN UURLU
500,0
1217
820
HRFANLI
128,0
300
140
KAPULUKAYA
54,0
190
120
KARACAREN-1
32,0
142
60
KARACAREN II
46,4
206
90
1800,0
7500
5310
DCLE
DOANKENT
HYDRO
Firm
Generation
(for 2008)
GWh
ADIGZEL
DERBENT
EA
Project
Generation
GWh
KARAKAYA
KARKAMI
189,0
652
320
KEBAN
1330,0
6600
4120
KEMER
48,0
80
45
KESKKPR
76,0
250
80
120,0
332
277
300
KILIKAYA
KKLCE
90,0
588
KRALKIZI
94,5
146
90
KRTN
85,0
198
140
MANAVGAT
48,0
220
110
MENZELET
124,0
515
360
MURATLI
115,0
444
253
ZLCE
170,0
413
290
SARIYAR
160,0
300
180
SUAT UURLU
69,0
350
250
TORTUM
26,2
100
85
YENCE
37,9
122
50
TORUL
105,6
322
130
60,0
350
212
SEYHAN I
SEYHAN II
7,5
33
283,5
725
500
KADINCIK I
70,0
315
180
KADINCIK II
56,0
307
165
YRER
6,0
20
KEPEZ I-II
32,4
170
55
ANLI URFA
51,8
124
85
DERLER
148,3
100
40
11455,9
39648
24158
23980,8
123435
89520
SIR
EA HYDRO TOTAL
EA AND AFFILIATED PARTNERSHIPS
TOTAL
84
TRANSFER OF OPERATIONAL RIGHT POWER PLANTS
Installed
Capacity
MW
TOR
NAME OF THE PLANT
AYIRHAN PARK HOLD.
Firm
Project
Generation
Generation
(for 2008)
GWh
GWh
620,0
3624
3624
30,1
TOTAL
650,1
3624
3624
TOR TOTAL
650,1
3624
3624
HAZAR 1-2
BUILT - OPERATE POWER PLANTS
Installed
Capacity
MW
NATURAL GAS
IMPORT
COAL
BO
NAME OF THE PLANT
ANKARA
GEBZE D.GAZ
ADAPAZARI
Firm
Project
Generation
Generation
(for 2008)
GWh
GWh
798,0
5884
5884
1595,4
12822
12822
797,7
6398
6398
1590,7
12683
12683
TOPLAM
4781,8
37787
37787
SKENDERUN
1320,0
9135
9135
TOTAL
1320,0
9135
9135
BO TOTAL
6101,8
46922
46922
ZMR
85
BUILT OPERATE TRANSFER POWER PLANTS
Installed
Capacity
MW
BOT THERMAL
NAME OF THE PLANT
TRAKYA ELEKTRK ENRON
498,7
3772
3772
ESENYURT (DOA)
188,5
1381
1381
OVA ELEK.
258,4
2215
2215
UNMAR
504,0
3877
3877
1449,6
11245
11245
672,0
2258
2258
4,2
21
21
AKSU (AYKY)
16,0
35
35
BERDAN (ALARKO)
10,0
44
44
AL (LMAK) (Denizli)
2,5
11
11
84,0
361
361
3,0
16
16
16,5
88
88
TOTAL
BRECK
AHKY I-II
AMLICA (AYEN ENERJ)
BOT
BOT HYDRO
DNAR-II (METAK)
FETHYE
GAZLER (Idr)
11,2
51
51
GRLEVK-II / MERCAN
11,0
39
39
GNEN
10,6
48
48
9,6
42
42
HASANLAR (ALARKO)
KISIK (AYEN ENERJ)
9,6
34
34
SUATI (ERE EN.)
7,0
26
26
12
STCLER
2,3
12
12,5
58
58
YAMULA
100,0
336
336
TOTAL
982,0
3480
3480
7,2
19
19
10,2
31
31
TOHMA MEDK (ALARKO)
BOT WIND
Firm
Project
Generation
Generation
(for 2008)
GWh
GWh
ARES (ALAATI)
BORES (BOZCAADA)
TOTAL
BOT TOTAL
17,4
49,9
49,9
2449,0
14775
14775
MOBILE POWER PLANTS
Installed
Capacity
MW
FUEL OIL
MOBILE
NAME OF THE PLANT
Firm
Project
Generation
Generation
(for 2008)
GWh
GWh
SAMSUN 1
131,3
876
500
SAMSUN 2
131,3
876
500
MOBILE TOTAL
262,6
1752
1000
86
Installed
Capacity
MW
NAME OF THE PLANT
AKSEN (Gaziantep)
21,1
AKDENZ SEKA (Silifke)
20,0
MLDA KAIT (AKSU SEKA)

AK TEKSTL-1(Gaziantep)
ALAA PETKM
ANADOLU EFES BRA I
ALBAYRAK TURZM (BALIKESR
SEKA)
FUEL OIL
20
87
87
170,0
1357
1357
3,8
32
32
9,3
56
70
GAP N.(CAY SEKA-AFYON)
8,0
60
60
75,0
450
450
GL ENERJ (Gaziantep)
25,0
193
193
HABA (Bilecik)
18,0
144
144
HABA (zmir)
36,0
288
288
5,1
39
39
HALKALI KAIT
ISPARTA MENSUCAT
10,7
85
85
KIRKA BORAKS (Krka)
8,2
32
32
POLNAS (Manisa)
SAMUR A.. (Esenboa)
3,4
27
27
26,2
106
106
52
7,4
52
10,0
75
75
7,4
60
60
ET ALMNYUM (S.EHR)
11,9
35
35
SUPER FLM
25,3
203
203
TPRA ZMR (ALAA RAF.)
44,0
306
306
TPRA (Orta Anadolu-Krkkale)
24,0
168
168
TPRA (zmit-Yarmca)
84,1
545
545
TPRA (Batman)
10,3
72
72
8,0
37
37
TRE-KUTSAN (Tire)
DERLER (zole)
TOTAL
DIESEL
20
8,0
13,0
56
ORS (Polatl)
TPRA (Batman)
DERLER
TOTAL
IMPORT
COAL
168
70
MOPAK (Dalaman)
HARD COAL
168
10,0
MED UNON A.. (EBSO)
96,0
300
300
799,2
5067
5067
10,3
72
72
0,1
10,4
73
73
190,0
1425
1425
6,0
45
45
196,0
1470
1470
220,4
772
772
35,0
300
300
255,4
1072
1072
3,4
24
24
10,7
78
78
PETLAS
6,0
40
40
MARMARA KAIT (Bilorsa)
2,0
155,5
285
285
177,6
436
436
OLAKOLU-2
KAHRAMANMARA KAIT
TOTAL
SDEMR
KARDEMR
TOTAL
ALKM (ALKAL KMYA) (Dazkr)
ET MADEN (BANDIRMA BORAKS)
LIGNITE
Firm
Generation
GWh
OYKA KA. (CAYCUMA SEKA)

ERDEMR
AUTOPRODUCERS
Project
Generation
GWh
DERLER
TOTAL
87
Installed
Capacity
MW
LPG
NAME OF THE PLANT
10,4
82
82
EGE BRLEK ENERJ
12,8
107
107
GOODYEAR (Adapazar)
9,6
79
79
GOODYEAR (zmit)
4,2
35
35
MOPAK KAIT (Iklar)
TOTAL
NAPTHA
MENDERES TEKS. (AKA ENERJ)
4,6
33
33
10,0
65
65
51,6
402
402
140
18,7
140
ALKM KAIT
5,2
41
41
DENTA (Denizli)
5,0
38
38
DESA (Iklar)
10,6
70
70
MENSA MENSUCAT
10,4
85
85
TOROS (Ceyhan)
4,7
38
38
TOROS (Mersin)
12,1
96
96
SKTA Aydn)
4,5
38
38
71,2
546
546
ACIBADEM Bursa
1,3
11
11
ACIBADEM Kadky 1
0,5
TOTAL
ACIBADEM Kadky 2
0,6
AKATEKS orlu
1,8
14
14
AKBALAR
8,7
73
73
AKIN ENERJ (B.Kartran)
4,9
37
37
AKMAYA (LLEBURGAZ)
6,9
48
48
ALTINYILDIZ (Yenibosna)
4,7
40
40
ALTINMARKA
3,6
29
29
AMYLUM NASTA (Adana)

ARELK (ayrova)
ARELK (Eskiehir)
14,3
80
80
6,5
49
49
6,3
48
48
12,7
101
101
ATA N. ANTALYA
5,4
37
37
ATATEKS TEKSTL
5,6
45
45
ATLAS HALICILIK (orlu)
1,0
AYDIN RME
7,5
60
60
AYKA TEKSTL
5,5
41
41
ARENKO (Denizli)
NATURAL GAS
Firm
Generation
GWh
ET BOR (EMET)
ORTA ANADOLU MENSUCAT
AUTOPRODUCERS
Project
Generation
GWh
BAHARYE HALI
1,0
BAHIVAN GIDA (LLEBURGAZ)
1,2
BAYDEMRLER (Beylikdz)
9,3
77
77
BEY ENERJ (B.Kartran)
5,0
36
36
BL ENERJ (Ankara)
36,6
255
255
CAN TEKSTL (orlu)
5,2
40
40
ECZACIBAI BAXTER
1,0
COGNS (Tuzla)*
1,0
IRAAN SARAYI
1,3
11
11
123,4
1047
1047
14,0
113
113
1,0
OLAKOLU-1
DENZL MENTO
DOU (B.Kartran)
88
Installed
Capacity
MW
NAME OF THE PLANT
4,9
38
38
EKOTEN TEKSTL
1,9
15
15
ELSE TEKSTL
3,2
25
25
ERAK GYM
1,4
12
12
EROLU GYM
1,2
ESKEHR ENDSTR ENERJ(OSB)
59,0
452
452
ERDEMR
80,0
480
480
EVYAP
5,1
30
30
FLOKSER Tekstil (Poliser)
2,1
17
17
FLOKSER Tekstil (Setser)
2,1
17
17
FOUR SEASONS OTEL
1,2
FRTOLAY GIDA
0,6
GLLE ENTEGRE (orlu)
6,3
47
47
HABA (Aliaa)
NATURAL GAS
Firm
Generation
GWh
EDP PLK (B.Kartran)
GRANSER GRANT
AUTOPRODUCERS
Project
Generation
GWh
5,5
42
42
224,5
1796
1796
HAYAT KAIT SAN.
7,5
56
56
HAYAT KMYA (zmit)
5,2
32
32
HAYAT TEMZLK
15,0
94
94
GSA (Yarmca)
11,0
76
76
9,2
63
63
SKO (negl)
KALESERAMK
(an.seramik+Kalebodur)
KARTONSAN (zmit)
21,6
157
157
24,0
192
192
KASTAMONU ENTEGRE
7,5
48
48
KIVAN TEKSTL
3,9
33
33
KL-SAN
3,2
25
25
KOMBASSAN AMBALAJ (Konya)
5,5
40
40
KOMBASSAN AMBALAJ (Tekirda)
5,5
38
38
KORUMA KLOR
9,6
77
77
KKALIK TEKSTL
8,0
64
64
434
MANSA O.S.B.
84,8
434
MAKS ENERJ (HAMOLU)
7,7
62
62
MARMARA PAMUK
8,7
71
71
MB EKER NASTA SAN.(AKSARAY)
8,8
60
60
MELKE TEKSTL (GAZANTEP)
1,6
11
11
MSS APRE TEKS. (ADANA)
2,0
14
14
MERCEDES BENZ
8,3
68
68
MODERN ENERJ
96,8
680
680
NUH ENERJ 2 (Nuh imento)
514
73,0
514
NUR YILDIZ (GEM-TA)
1,4
ZAKIM ENERJ (Grsu)
7,0
60
60
PAKGIDA (Dzce-Kseky)
6,9
55
55
PAKGIDA (Kemalpaa)
5,7
43
43
PAKMAYA (zmit)
POLAT TURZM (POLAT
RENAISSANCE)
6,9
55
55
1,6
11
11
89
Installed
Capacity
MW
NAME OF THE PLANT
NATURAL GAS
Firm
Generation
GWh
SARKUYSAN (Tuzla)
7,7
60
60
SMKO (Kartal)
2,1
14
14
STANDARD PROFL
6,7
49
49
SPERBOY BOYA
1,0
SNMEZ FLAMENT
4,1
29
29
180
AHNLER ENERJ (B.Kartran)
AUTOPRODUCERS
Project
Generation
GWh
26,0
180
IK MAKAS
1,6
13
13
SWISS OTEL ( stanbul)
1,6
11
11
TAV Esenboa
3,9
33
33
TANRIVERD
4,7
39
39
TEKBOY TEKSTL
2,2
16
16
TERMAL SERAMK (St)
4,6
34
34
TEZCAN GALVANZ GR I-II
3,7
29
29
TRAKYA PLK (erkezky)
4,2
29
29
TBA
1,4
YILDIZ ENTEGRE
6,2
40
40
YILFERT (TGSA GEMLK GB.)
8,0
50
50
TP MERSERZE (B.Kartran)
5,7
46
46
YALOVA ELYAF
12,3
YILDIZ SUNTA (Kseky)
27,8
180
180
YONGAPAN (Kastamonu)
9,7
61
61
YURTBAY (Eskiehir)
7,8
62
62
ZEYNEP GYM
1,2
78,9
275
275
1387,8
9747,3
9747,3
DERLER
TOTAL
90
Installed
Capacity
MW
BIO GAS
NAME OF THE PLANT
3,2
22
22
ZAYDA (zmit p)
5,2
37
37
KEMERBURGAZ
4,0
ADANA ATIK
0,8
OTHERS
13,2
72
72
BANDIRMA AST(ET MADEN)
11,5
88
88
BANDIRMA BAFA
10,0
57
57
21,5
145
145
1,2
1,2
OYMAPINAR (ET ALMNYUM)
540,0
1620
1170
TOPLAM
TOTAL
WIND
SUNJT
TOTAL
RUN OF RIVER
AUTOPRODUCERS
Firm
Generation
GWh
BELKA (Ankara)
TOTAL
HYDRO
(DAM)
Project
Generation
GWh
540,0
1620
1170
BACI SU RNLER
0,3
1,7
1,7
KAREL (PAMUKOVA)
9,3
55,0
40,0
MOLU
3,4
10,6
10,6
YELLLER (Krehir)
0,5
1,0
1,0
13,5
68
53
553,5
1688
1223
3.538,5
20.720,4
20.254,9
TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
AUTOPRODUCERS TOTAL
91
PRIVATE GENERATION COMPANY POWER PLANTS

Installed
Capacity
MW
NATURAL GAS
PRIVATE GENERATION COMPANIES
NAPTHA
NAME OF THE PLANT
Project
Generation
GWh
Firm
Generation
GWh
AK ENERJ (Yalova) zole
21,0
173
173
AK ENERJ (Deba Denizli)

ATAER ENERJ (EBSO)
15,6
70,2
398
398
TOPLAM
AK ENERJ (Yalova Akal)
AK ENERJ (zmir-Batim)
AK ENERJ (Bozyk)
AK ENERJ (erkezky)
AK ENERJ (Yalova)
AK ENERJ (Kemalpaa)
AK ENERJ (Uak OSB)
AKSA ENERJ (ANTALYA)
AKSA ENERJ (MANSA)
ALARKO ALTEK
ALAA akmaktepe Enerji
ANTALYA ENERJ
AYEN OSTM
BERK ENERJ (KURTKY))
BS ENERJ (Bursa San.)
BOSEN (Bursa San.)
BOZ ENERJ
BURGAZ ELEKTRK
CAM ELEKTRK (Mersin)
CAM ELEKTRK (B.Kartran)
CAN ENERJ
EB ENERJ
ELK ENERJ (Uzuniftlik)
ERKEZKY ENERJ
ENERJ-SA (Adana)
ENERJ-SA (Mersin)
ENERJ-SA (anakkale)
ENERJ-SA (KENTSA)Kseky
ENTEK (Kseky-ztek)
ENTEK (KO niversite)
ENTEK Demirta
KAREN I-II KPA ELEKTRK
KAREGE ARGES
METEM ENERJ (Hacramat)
METEM ENERJ (Peliklik)
NOREN ENERJ
NUH ENERJ 1 (Nuh imento)
SAYENERJ (Kayseri OSB)
SNMEZ ELEKTRK
T ENERJ TURCAS
ZORLU ENERJ (Bursa)
ZORLU ENERJ (B. Kartran)
ZORLU ENERJ (Sincan)
ZORLU ENERJ (Kayseri)
ZORLU ENERJ (Pnarba/Kayseri)
ZORLU ENERJ (Yalova)
TOTAL
92
106,8
10,4
45,0
126,6
98,0
38,5
127,2
15,2
183,8
52,4
82,0
34,8
52,4
41,0
14,8
410,0
142,8
8,7
6,9
126,1
32,9
56,3
64,4
2,4
49,2
130,2
64,5
64,1
120,0
144,8
2,3
145,9
24,3
43,6
7,8
11,7
8,7
38,0
5,9
26,2
1,6
90,0
65,8
50,3
188,5
7,2
15,9
571
85
370
817
805
317
1044
571
85
370
817
805
317
1044
1290
370
567
278
367
348
104
3383
1071
60
55
1008
270
327
505
19
403
850
520
520
930
1251
19
1259
180
348
58
89
70
326
47
202
13
752
525
429
1439
59
122
1290
370
567
278
367
348
104
3383
1071
60
55
1008
270
327
505
19
403
850
520
520
930
1251
19
1259
180
348
58
89
70
326
47
202
13
752
525
429
1439
59
122
3079,1
23871
23871

Installed
Capacity
MW
NAME OF THE PLANT

AKSA
1,4
10
10
150
140
EKOLOJK ENERJ (Kemerburgaz)
1,0
ORTADOU ENERJ (ODA YER)
2,8
22
19
TOTAL
25,0
189,5
176
AKSA ENERJ (Hakkari)
24,0
175
175
KIZILTEPE
34,1
250
250
WASTE
IMPORT
COAL
FUEL OIL
KARKEY (SLOP)
DIESEL
Firm
Generation
GWh
19,8
ITC-KA ENERJ MAMAK
Project
Generation
GWh
171,9
1200
1200
PS3-A -1
11,4
80
80
PS3-A -2 (DL)
24,4
180
180
SRT
25,6
190
190
TOTAL
291,4
2075
2075
DA ELK
135,0
948
948
TOTAL
135,0
948
948
VAN ENGL GAZ (ZORLU ENERJ)
15,0
75
75
TOTAL
15,0
75,0
75
3652,3
27729
27716
THERMAL TOTAL
93
Installed
Capacity
MW
NAME OF THE PLANT

BEREKET (DENZL)
BEREKET ( DALAMAN)
3,7
12
12
37,5
179
179
9,5
41
25
BEREKET (GKYAR)
11,6
43
23
39,9
163
140
101,9
408
263
DAREN HES (SEYRANTEPE)
49,7
182
161
ALP ELEKTRK (TINAZTEPE)
7,7
29
17
CANSU ELEKTRK (ARTVN)
9,2
47
31
ALDERE ELEKTRK (DALAMAN)
8,7
35
25
AKKY ENERJ (AKKY I HES)
DERMENST HES (KAHRAMANMARA)
25,7
69
40
HAMZALI HES (TURKON MNG)
16,7
117
66
8,7
18
11
22,4
79
45
H.G.M. ENERJ (KEKLCEK)

HDRO KONTROL (YUKARI MANAHOZ)
-EN ELEKTRK (ALKILA)
HYDRO
Firm
Generation
GWh
BEREKET (FESLEK)
BEREKET (MENTA)
Project
Generation
GWh
7,7
18
11
KALEN ENERJ (KALEN II)
15,7
50
28
MARA ENERJ (FIRNIS)
7,2
36
23
SARMAIK I HES (FETA FETHYE)
21,0
96
54
SARMAIK II HES (FETA FETHYE)
21,6
108
61
YEL ENERJ (TAYFUN HES)
0,8
MURGUL BAKIR
4,6
TEMSA ELEKTRK (GZEDE)
2,4
10
EKN ENERJ (BAARAN HES)
0,6
ENERJ-SA (BRKAPILI)
48,5
171
17
ENERJ-SA (AKSU- AHMALLAR)
14,0
45
ENERJ-SA (SUGZ-KIZILDZ)
15,4
55
EEN-II (GLTA)
43,4
170
ELTA (DODURGA)
4,1
12
12
14,2
44
20
SKUR (SLEYMANLI HES)
4,6
18
KURTEKS Karasu Andrn HES
2,4
19
19
30
TA YUKARI MERCAN
MOLU ENERJ (BAHELK HES)
4,2
30
ZGR ELEK. K.MARA Tahta HES
12,5
54
54
PAMUK (Toroslar)
23,3
112
28
SU ENERJ (AYGREN HES)
4,6
19
TEKTU-KARGILIK
23,9
83
19
TEKTU-KALEALTI HES
15,0
52
11
TEKTU-KEBANDERES
5,0
32
20
13,3
90
54
10
YAPISAN HACILAR
YPM ALTINTEPE HES
4,0
18
YPM BEYPINAR HES
3,6
18
YPM KONAK HES
4,0
19
10
BEYKY
16,8
87
87
KUZGUN
20,9
36
TERCAN
15,0
51
28
ATAKY
5,5
15,4
30
20
KZDERE
18,6
110
100
MERCAN
20,4
78
48
807,1
3217
1858
ILDIR
HYDRO TOTAL
94

Installed
Capacity
MW
WIND
Project
Generation
GWh
Firm
Generation
GWh
ALZE ENERJ (Delta Plastik)
1,5
ANEMON ENERJ (NTEPE)
30,4
92
83
BARES (BANDIRMA)
30,0
105
95
DOAL ENERJ (BURGAZ)
14,9
48
43
DENZL ELK. (Karakurt-Akhisar)
10,8
28
24
0,9
MARE MANASTIR
39,2
129
129
BAK ELEKTRK AMLI RZGAR
21,0
104
92
8,1
24
19
ERTRK ELEKTRK (ATALCA)
60,0
210
180
NNORES ELEKTRK (YUNTDA)
42,5
161
145
ERTRK ELK. (TEPE)
DATA RES
LODOS RES (TAOLUK)
24,0
85
69
SAYALAR RZGAR (DOAL ENERJ)
30,6
97
88
SEBENOBA (DENZ ELEKTRK-SAMANDA)
31,2
100
86
345,1
1191
1059
TOTAL
MENDERES JEOTERMAL
GEOTH.
NAME OF THE PLANT
ZORLU ENERJ DENZL JEOTERMAL

SARAYKY JEOTERMAL (DENZL)
TOTAL
PRIVATE GENERATION COMPANY TOTAL
95
8,0
56
56
15,0
105
105
6,9
50
42
29,9
211
203
4834,4
32347
30835
ANNEX 2 : POWER PLANTS CONNECTED TO AND DISCONNECTED FROM THE

POWER SYSTEM IN 2008
CONNECTED
INSTALLED
CAPACITY (MW)
NAME OF PLANT
MB EKER NASTA SAN. A.. (Sultanhan)
AKSA ENERJ (Antalya)
AKSA ENERJ (Manisa)
ANTALYA ENERJ (lave)
ATA NAAT SAN. A.S.B.(ANTALYA)
BAHIVAN GIDA (LLEBURGAZ)
CAN ENERJ (orlu-TEKRDA) (lave)
FOUR SEASONS OTEL (ATK PASHA TUR.A.)
FRTOLAY GIDA SAN.VE TC.A.(lave)
ITC-KA Enerji retim A..(Mamak)(lave)
KARKEY(SLOP-5) (154 kV) (lave)
MELKE TEKSTL (GAZANTEP)
MSS APRE TEKSTL BOYA EN. SAN.
MODERN ENERJ (LLEBURGAZ)
ORTADOU ENERJ (ODA YER) (Eyp/ST.)
POLAT TURZ. (POLAT RENAISSANCE ST.OT.)
SARAYKY JEOTERMAL (Denizli)
YILDIZ SUNTA (Uzuniftlik-Kseky)(Dzeltme)
SNMEZ Elektrik (lave)
AKKY ENERJ (AKKY I HES)
ALP ELEKTRK (TINAZTEPE) ANTALYA
CANSU ELEKTRK (Murgul/ARTVN)
ALDERE ELK.(ALDERE HES)Dalaman-MULA
DAREN HES ELKT. (SEYRANTEPE BARAJI VE HES)
DERMENST EN. (KAHRAMANMARA)
GZEDE HES (TEMSA ELEKTRK) BURSA
H.G.M. ENERJ (KEKLCEK HES) (Yeilyurt)
HAMZALI HES (TURKON MNG ELEKTRK)
HDRO KNT.(YUKARI MANAHOZ REG.VE HES)
-EN ELK.(ALKILA REGLATR VE HES)
KALEN ENERJ (KALEN II REGLAT. VE HES)
MARA ENERJ (FIRNIS REGLATR VE HES)
SARMAIK I HES (FETA FETHYE ENERJ)
SARMAIK II HES (FETA FETHYE ENERJ)
TORUL
YEL ENERJ ELEKTRK (TAYFUN HES)
ZORLU ENERJ (MERCAN) (Dzeltme)
BAK ELEKTRK AMLI RZGAR
DATA RES (Data)
ERTRK ELEKTRK atalca RES
NNORES ELK YUNTDA RZG. (Aliaa)
LODOS RES (Taoluk)(G.O.P./STANBUL)
SAYALAR RZGAR (Doal Enerji)
SEBENOBA (DENZ ELK.) (Samanda-HATAY)
TOTAL
96
GENERATION
(MWh)
8,800
183,800
52,380
17,460
5,400
1,165
52,380
1,165
0,060
14,130
14,780
1,584
2,000
13,400
2,830
1,600
6,850
22,630
8,730
101,940
7,689
9,180
8,740
49,700
25,700
2,400
8,674
16,700
22,400
7,660
15,650
7,220
21,040
21,580
105,600
0,820
1,275
21,000
8,100
60,000
42,500
24,000
30,600
31,200
0
133.736
79.183
256.120
10
0
274.260
0
0
95.832
16.362
0
5.324
508.942
0
490
14.099
136.018
61
21.608
9.245
12.518
11.153
14.370
0
6.107
120
2.934
13.772
3.364
10.281
0
1.472
1.221
18.551
0
22.828
60.943
3.778
65.961
98.058
25.714
53.925
46.919
1.062,512
2.025.279
DISCONNECTED
INSTALLED
CAPACITY (MW)
NAME OF PLANT
CAM ELEKTRK (AYIROVA)
-12,200
SEKA (DG+F.O.)(zmit/Kseky)
-18,000
BRKO ENERJ(Bor)
-11,520
BERK ENERJ(Kurtky) (Dzeltme)
-8,310
TERMAL SERAMK (St) (Dzeltme)
-0,002
AK EN (DG+N)(Alapl-Zonguldak)
-5,200
ATAER ENER.ELEKT.RET.A..(DG+N)(Ebso)
-0,090
TOPRAK ENERJ(Eskiehir-2)
-9,000
MODERN ENERJ (LLEBURGAZ) (Dzeltme)
-3,880
MURGUL BAKIR (.Kaya)
-0,100
AK-ENERJ (orlu)
-10,400
KAREGE (K.Paa) (Dzeltme)
-0,690
TRK HENKEL Kimya (zole)
-1,590
TOTAL
-80,982
GARAND TOTAL (MW)
981,530
97
ANNEX 3 : POWER PLANTS EXPECTED TO BE IN SERVICE BETWEEN 2009-2016

UNDER CONSTRUCTION AND GRANTED BY LICENCE
(According to January 2009 Progress Report Published by EPDK Scenario 1)
YEAR
NAME OF THE PLANT
FUEL
TYPE
TOTAL
INSTALLED
CAPACITY
(MW)
FIRM
PROJECT
GENERATION GENERATION
(GWh)
(GWh)
2009
EPDK
EPDK
EPDK
EPDK
1,7
67,0
91,9
187,1
8,4
390,2
704,2
1190,3
8,4
390,2
704,2
1190,3
347,7
2293,1
2293,1
2,6
54,9
205,8
19,8
375,5
801,1
19,8
375,5
680,9
263,3
1196,4
1076,2
160,0
115,0
200,0
20,3
562,0
488,0
343,0
473,0
60,0
2225,7
418,0
176,0
337,0
45,0
1046,1
HYDRO TOTAL
1057,3
3589,7
2022,1
YEAR TOTAL
1668,3
7079,2
5391,4
145,6
1159,8
1159,8
145,6
1159,8
1159,8
11,4
173,3
87,5
646,9
87,5
549,9
184,7
734,4
637,4
308,9
57,2
39,5
64,8
1024,7
1187,0
100,0
118,0
200,0
3942,5
837,0
7,0
18,0
146,0
1853,0
HYDRO TOTAL
1495,1
5547,5
2861,0
YEAR TOTAL
1825,4
7441,7
4658,2
GRANTED BY LICENCE
GRANTED BY LICENCE
GRANTED BY LICENCE
GRANTED BY LICENCE
LIGNITE
F. OIL
D. GAZ
IMP.COAL
THERMAL TOTAL
EPDK
EPDK
EPDK
GRANTED BY LICENCE
GRANTED BY LICENCE
GRANTED BY LICENCE
BIOGAS
GEOTH.
WIND
RENEWABLE(WIND+GEOTH.)
DS
DS
DS
DS
EPDK
ALPASLAN-I
AKKPR
OBRUK
MANYAS
GRANTED BY LICENCE
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO
2010
EPDK
GRANTED BY LICENCE
N. GAS
THERMAL TOTAL
EPDK
EPDK
GRANTED BY LICENCE
GRANTED BY LICENCE
WASTE
WIND
DS
DS
DS
DS
EPDK
ERMENEK
KILAVUZLU
NE
TOPAM
GRANTED BY LICENCE
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO
98
YEAR
NAME OF THE PLANT
FUEL
TYPE
TOTAL
INSTALLED
CAPACITY
(MW)
FIRM
PROJECT
(GWh)
(GWh)
2011
EPDK
EPDK
GRANTED BY LICENCE
GRANTED BY LICENCE
N. GAS
IMP.COAL
805,9
410,3
6241,7
2916,0
6241,7
2916,0
1216,2
9157,7
9157,7
7,8
269,5
60,0
973,1
60,0
827,1
277,3
1033,1
887,1
670,0
1007,5
2118,0
3644,4
1212,0
1712,9
HYDRO TOTAL
1677,5
5762,4
2924,9
YEAR TOTAL
3171,0
15953,2
12969,7
1911,9
1215,8
15348,8
8640,0
15348,8
8640,0
3127,7
23988,8
23988,8
0,0
0,0
0,0
1818,7
5906,8
2776,2
HYDRO TOTAL
1818,7
5906,8
2776,2
YEAR TOTAL
4946,4
29895,6
26765,0
840,0
1213,3
5880,0
8015,7
5606,4
8015,7
2053,3
13895,7
13622,1
0,0
0,0
0,0
HYDRO TOTAL
0,0
0,0
0,0
2053,3
13895,7
13622,1
TERMK TOPLAMI
EPDK
EPDK
GRANTED BY LICENCE
GRANTED BY LICENCE
WASTE
WIND
DS
EPDK
DERNER
LSANS ALMI PROJELER
HES
HES
2012
EPDK
EPDK
GRANTED BY LICENCE
GRANTED BY LICENCE
LIGNITE
IMP.COAL.
TERMK TOPLAMI
EPDK
GRANTED BY LICENCE
HES
2013
EA
EPDK
AMBARLI - B DGK
LSANS ALMI PROJELER
N. GAS
IMP.COAL
THERMAL TOTAL
YEAR TOTAL
99
YEAR
NAME OF THE PLANT
FUEL
TYPE
TOTAL
INSTALLED
CAPACITY
(MW)
FIRM
PROJECT
(GWh)
(GWh)
2014
THERMAL TOTAL
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
HYDRO TOTAL
0,0
0,0
0,0
YEAR TOTAL
0,0
0,0
0,0
THERMAL TOTAL
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
HYDRO TOTAL
0,0
0,0
0,0
YEAR TOTAL
0,0
0,0
0,0
THERMAL TOTAL
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
1200,0
3833,0
2459,0
HYDRO TOTAL
1200,0
3833,0
2459,0
YEAR TOTAL
1200,0
3833,0
2459,0
2015
2016
DS
ILISU
HYDRO
Note: DSI projects and Ambarl-B N.G.C.C Power Plant constructed by EA are currently
under construction and remaining projects are granted by licence.
100
ANNEX 3 (Cont.) : POWER PLANTS EXPECTED TO BE IN SERVICE BETWEEN

2009-2016 UNDER CONSTRUCTION AND GRANTED BY LICENCE
(According to January 2009 Progress Report Published by EPDK Scenario 2)
YEAR
NAME OF THE PLANT
FUEL
TYPE
TOTAL
INSTALLED
CAPACITY
(MW)
FIRM
PROJECT
(GWh)
(GWh)
2009
EPDK
EPDK
EPDK
EPDK
GRANTED BY LICENCE
GRANTED BY LICENCE
GRANTED BY LICENCE
GRANTED BY LICENCE
LIGNITE
F. OIL
N.GAZ
1,7
67,0
91,9
187,1
8,4
390,2
704,2
1190,3
8,4
390,2
704,2
1190,3
347,7
2293,1
2293,1
2,6
47,4
172,8
19,8
312,5
639,7
19,8
312,5
543,8
222,8
972,0
876,1
160,0
115,0
200,0
20,3
412,5
488,0
343,0
473,0
60,0
1650,0
418,0
176,0
337,0
45,0
775,5
907,8
3014,0
1751,5
1478,3
6279,1
4920,7
78,6
639,8
639,8
78,6
639,8
639,8
11,4
183,8
7,5
87,5
706,3
63,0
87,5
600,3
63,0
202,7
856,8
750,8
308,9
57,2
39,5
64,8
893,3
1187,0
100,0
118,0
200,0
3508,2
837,0
7,0
18,0
146,0
1648,9
HYDRO TOTAL
1363,7
5113,2
2656,9
YEAR TOTAL
1645,0
6609,8
4047,5
IMP.COAL
THERMAL TOTAL
EPDK
EPDK
EPDK
GRANTED BY LICENCE
GRANTED BY LICENCE
GRANTED BY LICENCE
BIOGAS
GEOTH.
WIND
DS
DS
DS
DS
EPDK
ALPASLAN-I
AKKPR
OBRUK
MANYAS
LSANS ALMI PROJELER
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO TOTAL
YEAR TOTAL
2010
EPDK
GRANTED BY LICENCE
N. GAS
THERMAL TOTAL
EPDK
EPDK
EPDK
GRANTED BY LICENCE
GRANTED BY LICENCE
GRANTED BY LICENCE
WASTE
WIND
GEOTH.
DS
DS
DS
DS
EPDK
ERMENEK
KILAVUZLU
NE
TOPAM
GRANTED BY LICENCE
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO
101
YAKIT
YIL
SANTRAL ADI
TP
SANTRAL
KURULU
GC
(MW)
PROJE
GVENLR
RETM
RETM
(GWh)
(GWh)
2011
EPDK
EPDK
GRANTED BY LICENCE
GRANTED BY LICENCE
N.GAS
IMP.COAL
872,9
410,3
6761,7
2916,0
6761,7
2916,0
1283,2
9677,7
9677,7
7,8
202,0
60,0
720,3
60,0
612,3
209,8
780,3
672,3
670,0
956,2
2118,0
3547,7
1212,0
1667,4
HYDRO TOTAL
1626,2
5665,7
2879,4
YEAR TOTAL
3119,2
16123,7
13229,4
607,9
4320,0
4320,0
607,9
4320,0
4320,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
1594,0
5128,6
2410,4
HYDRO TOTAL
1594,0
5128,6
2410,4
YEAR TOTAL
2201,9
9448,6
6730,4
840,0
1213,3
1025,0
5880,0
8015,7
8400,0
5606,4
8015,7
8400,0
3078,3
22295,7
22022,1
0,0
0,0
0,0
HYDRO TOTAL
0,0
0,0
0,0
3078,3
22295,7
22022,1
THERMAL TOTAL
EPDK
EPDK
GRANTED BY LICENCE
GRANTED BY LICENCE
WASTE
WIND
RENEWABLE(WIND+GEOTH.))
DS
EPDK
DERNER
GRANTED BY LICENCE
HYDRO
HYDRO
2012
EPDK
GRANTED BY LICENCE
IMP.COAL
THERMAL TOTAL
EPDK
GRANTED BY LICENCE
HYDRO
2013
EA
EPDK
EPDK
AMBARLI - B DGK
GRANTED BY LICENCE
GRANTED BY LICENCE
N.GAS
IMP.COAL
N.GAS
THERMAL TOTAL
YEAR TOTAL
102
YEAR
NAME OF THE PLANT
FUEL
TYPE
TOTAL
INSTALLED
CAPACITY
(MW)
FIRM
PROJECT
(GWh)
(GWh)
2014
THERMAL TOTAL
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
HYDRO TOTAL
0,0
0,0
0,0
YEAR TOTAL
0,0
0,0
0,0
THERMAL TOTAL
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
HYDRO TOTAL
0,0
0,0
0,0
YEAR TOTAL
0,0
0,0
0,0
THERMAL TOTAL
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
1200,0
3833,0
2459,0
HYDRO TOTAL
1200,0
3833,0
2459,0
YEAR TOTAL
1200,0
3833,0
2459,0
2015
2016
DS
ILISU
HYDRO
Note: DSI projects and Ambarl-B N.G.C.C Power Plant constructed by EA are currently
under construction and remaining projects are granted by licence.
103
X.
TEA
TETA
EA
ETKB
EGM
EA
KEPEZ
MYTM
TEDA
EPDK
EPK
DS
ADA
DTP
GDP
WASP
MAED
BOT
BOO
TOR
Abbrivations
Turkish Electricity Transmission Company

Turkish Electricity Trading Company
Electricity Generation Company (State owned)
Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources
General Directorate of Energy Affairs
Former Private Company (Transferred to EA)
Former Private Company (Transferred to EA)
National Load Dispatching Center
Turkish Electricity Distribution Company
Energy Market Regulatory Authority
Electricity Market Law N0:4628
State Hydraulic Works
Private Generation Company
State Planning Organization
Gross Domestic Product
Wien Automatic System Planning
(Planning Model to use for Electricity Generation Expansion Planning)
Model for Analysis of Energy Demand
Built-Operate-Transfer
Built-Operate-Own
Transfer of Operational Right
104

Capacity Projection 2009-2018

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TURKISH ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION CORPORATION

RESEARCH PLANNING AND COORDINATION DEPARTMENT

TURKISH ELECTRICAL ENERGY

ANNUAL GENERATION PROGRAMS AND REALIZATION FOR YEARS 2007-2008 .........14

III.1. YEAR 2007 ...................................................................................................................................................... 14

TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM .....................................................................17

IV.1. TRANSMISSION SYSTEM ................................................................................................................................... 17

ASSUMPTIONS USED FOR THE GENERATION CAPACITY PROJECTION.........................20

VI.I. CASE I A (HIGH DEMAND SCENARIO 1) ...................................................................................................... 41

COMPARISON OF RESULTS .......................................................................................................78

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS.............................................................................80

ANNEX 1 : EXISTING SYSTEM (AS END OF YEAR 2008) .................................................................................. 83

SENARYO 1 ENERJ TALEB

SENARYO 2 ENERJ TALEB

SENARYO 1 PUANT TALEP

SENARYO 2 PUANT TALEP

II.2. Analysis of Daily Electricity Consumption for the Year 2008

Figure 4 : Daily Load Curves of Third Wednesday of Each Month in 2008

30 September 2 October and 8 11 December were Religious Holiday in 2008.

II.3. Load Duration Curves for Years 2007 and 2008

2007 YILI TERTPLENM YK ERS

Figure 6 : Load Duration Curve for the year 2008

II.4. Demand Forecasts

The Study Report on Long-Term Electricity Demand of Turkey, ETKB-APKK, 2004

Table 2 : Comparison of Former Demand Forecasts with Realized Values

Table 3 : Deviation Ratio of Demand Forecasts from Realization (%)

Figure 7 : Demand Forecast (High Demand)

Table 5 : Demand Forecast (Low Demand)

Figure 8 : Demand Forecast (Low Demand)

III. ANNUAL GENERATION PROGRAMS AND REALIZATION FOR

Table 7 : Breakdown of Installed Capacity (2007)

TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY

III.2. Year 2008

Table 8 : Annual Generation Program and Realization for 2008 (GWh)

Table 9 : Breakdown of Installed Capacity (2008)

TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY

TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM

IV.1. Transmission System

Table 11 : Length of Transmission Lines (km) ( Values for 2008)

154 kV underground capacity cable length is 162.9 km

Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition

IV.2. Distribution System

IV.3. System Losses

Resource : Turkish Electricity Generation-Transmission Statistics, TEA-APK

ASSUMPTIONS USED FOR THE GENERATION CAPACITY

less than 100 MW will be comissioned in 2010

No import and export are being considered.

Table 15 : Breakdown of Installed Capacity of Private Sector Power Plants under

Waste Gas (LFG)

State-owned Power Plants

Table 16 : Breakdown of Project Generation of Private Sector Power Plants under

Waste Gas (LFG)

9836,0 21865,4 18955,6 4007,8

State-owned Power Plants

5158,8 16573,2 21882,2 4007,8

3374,4 7740,4 10940,5 23365,7 24835,6 4007,8

Waste Gas (LFG)

State-owned Power Plants

Waste Gas (LFG)

State-owned Power Plants

Waste Gas (LFG)

State-owned Power Plants

6924,5 10609,8 13227,4