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Poll Results for Michigan voters 12 days away from the February 28th Republican Presidential Primary election reflect Santorums growing base with Michigan voters, significant hurdles for the Romney Campaign and missed opportunities for Paul and Gingrich to pick up delegates and the pathway to a crucial primary contest for the Republican Presidential contest.
February 20, 2012 Contact: Eric Foster, Foster McCollum White and Associates 313-333-7081 Cell Email: efoster@fostermccollumwhite.com Contact: Tarek Baydoun, Baydoun Consulting 313-729-3737 Cell Email: baydounconsulting@gmail.com
The Michigan Republican primary has become a two person race between Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. Candidates Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul have faded from the consideration for the majority of Michigan voters, even though candidate Paul has an opportunity to negatively impact Candidate Romneys efforts with specific voter groups. Overall, Rick Santorum has a 3.62% margin (37.37% to 33.75%) over Mitt Romney. Santorum has significant margins within key cross tab groups of Republican voters including: Military and social conservatives, Evangelical Christians, Voters who believe the national debt, national security and American exceptionalism are the priority issues of the campaign, Male voters, Tea Party voters, and Republican voters ages 31 to 50 and ages 51 to 65. Candidate Romney has sizable, yet smaller margins among the following constituency groups: Republican voters over the age of 65, Moderate Republicans, Non Evangelical Christians, Voters who believe the Economy is the priority issue of the campaign, Non military (Doves) within the Republican party, and Non Tea party Republicans. The disappearance of Newt Gingrich as an option among Michigan Republican voters is extremely significant. Newt Gingrich is not a competitive option in Michigan and this will put significant stress on his performance in the Super Tuesday contest. After Newt Gingrichs victory in South Carolina, it appeared that he could be the candidate to gain victories and momentum in
states like Michigan. However, his defeats in Florida and Nevada and Rick Santorums three state sweep in Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri have sifted the opportunity to defeat Mitt Romney to Rick Santorum. Per Eric Foster, chief pollster for Foster McCollum White & Associates, by not actively participating in Michigan, Gingrich may have missed out on an opportunity to take advantage of the voters disconnect with Romney and deliver the most hurtful blow to the Romney campaign so far in the 2012 election. Our analysis suggests that Rick Santorum is trending well in the voter demographics that make up the winning coalition of Michigan Republican voters. The Michigan primary electorate has significant levels of fluidity prior to the election. Only 63.3% of the likely republican primary voters are very committed to their candidate selection. Mitt Romney has a slight lead within this group 42.70% to 40.59% over Santorum, a 1.11 point margin. 19.4% of Republican voters are somewhat committed to their candidate with Rick Santorum leading the field with 43.98% of this category of voters versus 28.75% for candidate Romney, a 15.23 point margin. Mitt Romney is on the edge of a significant blow to his campaign efforts. The combination of Santorums surge, voter disconnection with Mitt Romney and the opposite impact of negative campaign messaging have created a realistic path for Santorum to win Governor Romneys home state and win the overwhelming majority of Michigans delegate share. The potential double defeat (popular vote and up to 12 of the 14 congressional districts) would validate the narrative that the Republican nominating process is far from over and temporarily end the inevitable argument of a Romney nomination, stated Eric Foster. Santorum is winning the road map of the key constituencies that a Republican must win in a primary contest. He is currently leading Governor Romney in the following key categories: 5 of the six regions of the state including the Southwest and Central Regions, which are bell weather regions in Michigan. The Major 17 counties that determine Michigan elections (bell weather counties) Tea Party Support Very Conservative voters Evangelical Christians Male voters Female voters 31 to 50 year old voters 51 to 65 year old voters National Debt/Fiscal Conservatives Social Conservatives Military Conservatives 8 of the 14 congressional districts While the overall voter margin is close, Rick Santorum has sizable leads in each of these key republican voting clusters and is losing the Romney base voter groups by smaller margins. Santorum compile significant voter margins and defuse the cushions that come from Romney voters. For example, Governor Romney is winning moderate Republican voters, Economy focused voters and Catholics, but by margins less than 10 points. A roadmap does exist for Mitt Romney to win Michigan and he can still compete and win up to 8 congressional districts. The key for Romneys success will come from 5 constituency groups: Women voters
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Southeastern Michigan Non Tea Party Republican Catholic Voters Voters over the age of 60 Romney must increase his margins within each of these voter constituencies and he must take the lead among female voters. He must grow to 15 point margins in these core demographics to retain Michigan in his column and avoid a crushing defeat. Congressional Districts Michigans Republican Primary will award its delegates through a combination of individual congressional district winners and overall State winner. This hybrid model will allow a second place or third place state-wide contestant to pick up delegates by winning one of Michigans congressional districts. Our findings suggest that Rick Santorum is in position to not only win the state-wide vote, but also win a majority of Michigans congressional districts. Santorum is leading in the following congressional districts (above the margin of error of 2.14%): 1st District Santorum 42.29% to Romney 25.87% 2nd District Santorum 38.95% to Romney 32.11% 4th District Santorum 40.70% to Romney 26.74% 6th District Santorum 39.16% to Romney 25.90% 8th District Santorum 39.39% to Romney 32.73% 10th District Santorum 36.78% to Romney 32.76% 12th District Santorum 40.00% to Romney 34.29% 13th District Santorum 33.33% to Romney 29.63% Romney is leading in the following districts (above the margin of error of 2.14%): 9th District Romney 42.75% to Santorum 32.06% 11th District Romney 36.74% to Santorum 33.02% 14th District Romney 49.43% to Santorum 29.89% There are three districts that are a statistical tie (within the margin of error of 2.14%) 3rd District Romney 34.46% to Santorum 33.33% 5th District Romney 38.94% to Santorum 38.05% 7th District Romney 37.65% to Santorum 36.47% Rick Santorum is in position to not only win the state-wide vote and gain delegates, but he has a statistically relevant opportunity to win 12 of Michigans 14 congressional districts. This would provide him with a potential yield of 26 of Michigans 30 delegates.
Polling Study Overview Foster McCollum White and Associates, a Political and Governmental Affairs and Organizational Development consulting firm based in Troy and Detroit Michigan and Baydoun Consulting, a political communications consulting firm based in Dearborn, Michigan conducted a telephone-automated polling study of Michigan Most Likely Republican Primary voters to determine their voting preferences for the 2012 February Presidential Primary Election. This 10-question automated poll survey was conducted on the evening of February 16, 2012 between the hours of 7:00 pm and 8:30 pm. A survey of registered voters, equally pre-weighted Republican Independent and Democratic voters who are likely to participate in the February 28th Presidential Primary election was conducted on February 16th, 2010. 28,993 Households were called, and 2106 Respondents participated in the survey. The response rate for this survey was 7.26%. A list based sample of traditional Michigan high participation registered voters who have participated in a minimum of 70% of the Republican primaries since 1992 and voted for Republican candidates in general elections since 1992. These voters also have a minimum 70% participation rate in February & May elections and Odd year municipal and county elections in Michigan since 1993 was used. The list based sample was equally pre-weighted towards Republican voting participation rates by geographical regions of Michigan who are certain or likely to vote in the February 28th Republican election. Our polling study compared voter sentiment for the February ballot. For reporting purposes, we will focus our findings on the following general election contest: Republican Nomination and commitment to their selection Voters primary voting issue for participation in the February primary Foreign Affairs Intervention Demographic and Geographic considerations The margin of error for this polling sample is 2.14% with a confidence level of 95%. Our polling study produced sub populations within each of the surveyed election contest. Results within the sub populations will be reported with respect to the individual cross tab and sub population group as it exist.
Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 33.75% 6.91% 37.37% 8.01% 13.97%
Ron Paul 8%
Undecided 14%
Mitt Romney
Newt Gingrich
Rick Santorum
Ron Paul
Undecided
Newt Gingrich 7%
Question #2: How likely, if at all, are you to change your choice before the primary election? (Very committed to vote for your candidate): (Somewhat committed to vote for your candidate): (Somewhat likely to change my mind): (Highly likely to change your mind): (Undecided on your candidate): 63.30% 19.40% 8.10% 2.00% 7.20%
2% 8%
7% 64%
Very Committed Somewhat Committed Somewhat Likely to change mind Highly likely to change mind
19%
Undecided
Foster McCollum White & Associates ______________________________________________________________________________________ Question #3: Which of the following primary issues or policy items will have the greatest influence
Social/Cultural issues 9%
Question #4: With the growing concerns about Irans nuclear program and the growing civil unrest in Syria, Do you believe America should intervene in Iran and Syria?
(Yes, intervene with diplomatic and military options): (Yes, intervene with diplomatic efforts): (Yes, intervene with military action): (Do not intervene): (Undecided): 30.53% 35.93% 2.87% 18.02% 12.61%
18%
31% 13%
Yes Diplomatic & Military Options Yes, Diplomatic Option Only Yes, Military Options Only Do not intervene
35% 3%
Undecided
Question #: The Secretary of State is making your choice to vote in the Republican or Democratic presidential primary a publicly accessible record. Do you feel your voting privilege should become a public record?
(Yes): (No): (Undecided): 12.13% 76.46% 11.41%
Undecided 11%
Yes 12%
Yes
No
Undecided
No 77%
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Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 24.85% 8.73% 52.52% 3.81% 10.09%
Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 42.44% 6.50% 32.10% 4.91% 14.05%
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Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 39.32% 4.95% 22.66% 13.54% 19.53%
Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 27.65% 7.28% 47.41% 4.69% 12.96%
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Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 36.77% 7.58% 36.45% 6.45% 12.74%
Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 44.47% 4.58% 27.49% 9.16% 14.29%
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Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 44.12% 4.70% 29.60% 8.16% 13.42%
Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 32.87% 9.36% 39.64% 7.37% 10.76%
Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 8.65% 4.87% 70.27% 9.73% 6.49%
Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 31.62% 9.28% 40.89% 4.81% 13.40%
Governor Romney only gains 33.65% and 16.67% voter support respectively with these two voter bases. Santorums advantage is 10.79 points and 30 points respectively. Santorum also leads among voters who are undecided on this issue, leading Romney by 5.85 point margin (39.89% to 34.04% for Romney). Romneys advantage is with the dovish voters who only want diplomatic intervention or want the US to stay out of these international issues. Governor Romneys support among the diplomatic intervention only base (35.93% of the total respondent universe) is 40.91% to Santorums 28.03%, a margin of 12.88 points. Romney has a slight advantage among the do not intervene voter base, leading Santorum by 0.27% (28.31% to 28.04% for Santorum. What is surprising about the dovish republican constituency is the lack of traction for Ron Paul with this group in Michigan. Ron Paul is third with 19.05% support among the do not intervene voter group. Traditionally, this is a voter base that Ron Paul does significantly well with. Overall, the data suggests that voters who are engaged on this issue believe Rick Santorum will be better at dealing with the complex foreign affairs issues in the Middle East than Mitt Romney.
Yes Intervene with Diplomatic & Military Options Respondents 639 Respondents
Question 1: If the 2012 Republican Presidential Primary was held today, who would you vote for,
Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 33.65% 8.45% 44.44% 3.44% 9.70%
Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 39.89% 4.26% 34.04% 8.38% 13.43%
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Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 16.67% 15.00% 46.67% 6.67% 15.00%
Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 28.31% 8.20% 28.04% 19.05% 16.40%
Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 22.28% 11.23% 52.17% 5.43% 8.88%
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Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 40.07% 4.84% 30.55% 9.93% 14.61%
Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 37.68% 7.35% 35.35% 7.48% 12.13%
(Wayne, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw, Monroe) 5 Counties 6% of counties, 44.12% of States population, 66.52% White, 23.24% African American, 4.01% Latino American, 3.82% Asian American, 0.28% Native American & 2.13% Other Ethnic American
Southeastern Region Romney has a slight lead in the Southeastern Michigan with 37.68% of the Southeastern Michigan region primary voters while Santorum received 35.35% of the primary voter support. This is a small margin of 2.13 points. This is the only region of Michigan where Romney is in first place. The Southeastern region comprised 36.89% of the total respondent pool. 36.52% of the primary voters in the Southeastern region are very conservative and 36.52% are somewhat conservative. Only 27.76% of the primary voters in the Southeastern Region are Evangelical Christians, 43.0622% are Catholic and 14.53% are non-Evangelical Christians.
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Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 29.48% 4.91% 38.08% 11.06% 16.46%
(Oceana, Newaygo, Muskegon, Kent, Ottawa, Barry, Allegan, Van Buren, Kalamazoo, Berrien, Cass, St. Joseph) 12 Counties 14.5% of counties, 19.03% of population, 80.9% White, 7.67% African American, 1.68% Asian American, 7.17% Latino American, 0.45% Native American & 2.13% other Ethnic American.
Southwest Region Santorum has a sizable lead over Romney with 38.08% of the Southwest region primary voters while Romney received 29.48% of the primary voter support. The Southwest region comprised 19.37% of the total respondent pool. 39.41% of the primary voters in the Southwest region are very conservative and 37.93% are somewhat conservative. 46.31% of the primary voters in the Southwest Region are Evangelical Christians, 18.72% are Catholic and 20.20% are non-Evangelical Christians.
Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 34.78% 7.25% 35.27% 7.73% 14.98%
(Huron, Bay, Saginaw, Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Sanilac, Tuscola) 8 Counties 10.8% of counties, 9.65% of States population, 79.30% White, 13.41% African American, 4.29% Latino American, 0.77% Asian American, 0.41% Native American & 1.82% Other Ethnic American
Thumb Region Santorum has a slight lead over Romney with 35.27% of the Thumb region primary voters while Romney received 34.78% of the primary voter support, a margin of 0.49%. The Thumb region comprised 9.83% of the total respondent pool. 11.33% of the primary voters in the Thumb region cite social issues as their primary issue influencing their vote. 43.90% of the primary voters in the Thumb region are Evangelical Christians, 32.20% are Catholic and 12.68% are non-Evangelical Christians. This region has the largest share of liberal Republican of the six geographical regions (7.73%).
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Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 32.11% 7.34% 40.06% 6.12% 14.37%
(Montcalm, Gratiot, Ionia, Clinton, Eaton, Shiawassee, Jackson, Calhoun, Branch, Hillsdale, Livingston, Midland, Lenawee and Ingham) 14 Counties 16.9% of counties, 14.74% of States population, 86.0% White, 5.50% African American, 4.37% Latino American, 1.77% Asian American, 0.40% Native American & 1.96% Other Ethnic American.
Central Region Santorum has a sizable lead over Romney with 40.06% of the Central region primary voters while Romney received 32.11% of the primary voter support. The Central region comprised 15.58% of the total respondent pool. 43.56% of the primary voters in the Central region are very conservative and 32.82% are somewhat conservative. 41.67% of the primary voters in the Central are Evangelical Christians, 22.22% are Catholic and 23.15% are nonEvangelical Christians.
Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 33.82% 7.25% 34.30% 6.76% 17.87%
(Emmet, Cheboygan, Presque Isle, Charlevoix, Antrim, Otsego, Montmorency, Alpena, Roscommon, Crawford, Oscoda, Alcona, Iosco, Arenac, Gladwin, Kalkaska, Leelanau, Grand Traverse, Benzie, Manistee, Wexford, Mason, Lake, Osceola, Mecosta, Isabella, Clare, Missaukee and Ogemaw) 29 counties 34.9% of counties 7.65% of States population, 93.84% White, 0.96% African American, 1.27% Native American, 1.84% Latino American, 0.84% Asian American & 1.54% Other Ethnic American.
Northern Lower Peninsula Rick Santorum has a slight lead over Mitt Romney in this region of Michigan. Rick Santorum received 34.30% of the primary voter support vs. 33.82% of the primary voter support, a margin of 0.48 points. The Northern Lower Peninsula comprised 9.98% of our poll respondents. 38.64% of the primary voters in the Northern Lower Peninsula are very conservative and 37.88% are somewhat conservative. 41.55% of the primary voters in the
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Northern Lower Peninsula are Evangelical Christians, 25.6% are Catholic and 17.39% are nonEvangelical Christians.
Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 20.00% 10.77% 49.23% 9.23% 9.23%
(Gogebic, Ontonagon, Houghton, Keweenaw, Baraga, Iron, Marquette, Alger, Dickinson, Menominee, Delta, Schoolcraft, Luce, Chippewa, Mackinac) 15 counties -18.1% of counties, 3.15% of States population 89.3% White, 2.18% African American, 0.72% Asian American, 4.49% Native American, 1.09% Latino American & 2.20% Other Ethnic American.
Upper Peninsula Rick Santorum has a very sizable advantage among voters in this region of Michigan. The Upper Peninsula has 3.15% of the total State population and provided 3.09% of our total universe of respondents. Rick Santorum received 49.23% of the Upper Peninsula respondents support vs. 20% for Mitt Romney, a 29.23 point margin. The National debt is the most important issue for Upper Peninsula voters which are a variance from the other regions of Michigan and the aggregate universe of respondents. Only 25% of these voters are very conservative and 51.56% are somewhat conservative. 34.38% are Evangelical Christian and 31.25% of the Upper Peninsula voters are Catholic.
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Election influencing communities the major voting counties and congressional districts in Michigan
Major 17 County Voters
Question 1: If the 2012 Republican Presidential Primary was held today, who would you vote for,
Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 35.84% 6.37% 36.40% 8.43% 12.96%
Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 25.87% 8.96% 42.29% 7.46% 13.93%
Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 32.11% 4.74% 38.95% 7.89% 14.74%
Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 34.46% 3.39% 33.33% 13.56% 14.69%
Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
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Foster McCollum White & Associates ______________________________________________________________________________________ (Mitt Romney): 26.74% (Newt Gingrich): 8.72% (Rick Santorum): 40.70% (Ron Paul): 6.98% (Undecided): 16.28%
Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 38.94% 4.42% 38.05% 5.31% 13.27%
Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 25.90% 6.63% 39.16% 10.84% 17.47%
Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 37.65% 8.24% 36.47% 4.71% 12.94%
Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 32.73% 7.88% 39.39% 5.45% 14.55%
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Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 42.75% 7.63% 32.06% 6.87% 10.69%
Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 32.76% 8.05% 36.78% 6.90% 15.52%
Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 36.74% 6.51% 33.02% 11.16% 11.63%
Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 34.29% 9.52% 40.00% 6.67% 9.52%
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Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 29.63% 11.11% 33.33% 3.70% 22.22%
Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul or are you undecided?
(Mitt Romney): (Newt Gingrich): (Rick Santorum): (Ron Paul): (Undecided): 49.43% 3.45% 29.89% 6.90% 10.35%
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Major 17 Michigan County Factor Upon review of Michigan general election contest dating back to 1970, we found an interesting voter population trend that is a predictive indicator of the outcome of partisan and ballot question campaign success. Over this time period Michigans voter turnout is weighted disproportionally to a small number of counties, 17 of the 83 with the state. In each election since the 1992 Presidential election cycle, these 17 counties have produced a consistent range of 75% to 84% of the total State wide vote. These 17 counties are not always reflected among the top 17 Michigan counties in voter registration, yet consistently, they produce voter turnout results that lead the states turnout numbers per county. In these 17 counties, six are consistently strong Democratic voting communities in statewide elections. These counties are: Wayne, Washtenaw, Muskegon, Ingham, Genesse, Saginaw Seven of the top 17 counties are consistently strong Republican voting communities Berrien, Eaton, Jackson, Kent, Lapeer, Livingston, Ottawa Four of the 17 have become the swing communities, the harbinger to predict success in a partisan election. These counties are: Oakland, Macomb, Kalamazoo, Monroe For the purposes of this poll, we will review cross tab data for these 17 counties and analyze the three voting clusters of the 17 with respect to the Republican Presidential Primary
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