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A Contribution to Model Theory

Klaus Niemeyer (In:
Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector, NATO Science for Peace and Security Series, Vol.12, Ed: Kounchev,O., Willems,R., Shalamanov, V., Tsachev, T., IOS Press, Amsterdam, 2007)

The model phenomenon

Modelling and Simulation is an essential component for any intellectual behaviour. Human knowledge and intellect is based on the ability to create and manipulate models either cognitive or concrete, as an individual or in groups. The collection of information and the systematic creation of an image, model or construction which represents a part of the real environment are fundamental for the development of intellect. Only by experimenting or manipulating these representations in a goal oriented, more or less systematic approach it is possible to determine those solutions, which are faulty, less effective or negative. The intellectual search for best solutions is always based on the trial and error application of models. Learning is only possible by making mistakes but this should not be done with a real system of high value. Therefore, only models which permit the necessary simulations and experiments are the means for finding the best solutions. With the quantum leap in the evolution characterised by digital computer technology modelling and simulation is contributing and developing in high synergy with the information systems technology. Although the principles of experimenting in knowledge gathering on the basis of replicas of real systems are as old as human intellect, models and simulations with digital computers have developed during the last few decades. The disciplines of natural sciences, in particular those with a quantitative and logic approach to fact finding as well as the engineering disciplines developed a huge amount of numerical and logic models which are operated on digital computers. The kernel of simulation is the development and application of explicitly formulated models which are executed on computers. These models enable reproducible results to be generated at anytime in socalled computation experiments. These are achieved with many changing assumptions and constraints and thus are accessible for discussion and change. The models are structured from mathematical and logical relationships which are based on technical, physical or social insights and theories. A model can be seen as a replica of an existing perceptible system or as a precursor of a foreseeable system in the planning stages. The model enables the simulation of the system considered and the analysis of parameters, assumptions and arguments. It enables insights into sensitive areas, trends and interrelationships between parameters. It can be assumed that models and simulations are indeed the most sophisticated method of information processing and may be regarded as part of hybrid intelligence. Considering the possibilities of existing computer technology, the performance of which has increased far beyond all expectations during the last few years and has so far hardly been exploited, as well as the possibilities of associated software and simulations, it becomes clear that models and simulations have an enormous potential with regard to thinking processes. On account of the models, the simulations have a rational basis, on which a profitable discussion may be carried out. Due to model structuring it is possible to define and control the complex relations of the real world. In a superior way, human decision-making is still given an important

arbitrary function; but irrationalities due to the limited human information processing capacity are eliminated. Simulations offer the possibility of experimenting and analysing the systems of the future, which might be introduced one day. On account of the direct decision-making activity in these simulated systems, experimental games provide planners with information on the future. They are catalysts for group intelligence, which can define, evaluate and manipulate complex system relationships. Only in this manner the problems of the future are likely to be treated consciously and rationally. Many examples exist that show the power of models and simulation in science, engineering, planning and forecasting. In astrophysics the limits of human knowledge are considerably extended using models simulating the explosion of stars or the processes during the firsts moments of the existence of the universe.1 The future of the global climate is predicted with relatively high precision as consequence of the burning of fossil energy.2 The limits of growth as calculated by even simple models indicated urgent requirements to change traditional behaviour of humans.3 In the military area many models for the simulation of military campaigns, battles and processes were developed, are continuously improved and adjusted to real world events. Also these models are increasingly used for the improvement of armed forces, decision making in military headquarters, experimenting and training.4

The need for a theory of modelling

Due to the fact that the model paradigm has created such an avalanche of applications in almost all disciplines the definition of what a model is all about is not yet commonly agreed and available. 5 In literature many definitions exist, only a few provide some structure and the idea of deeper understanding of the phenomena. Examples are:6 A model is a person who serves as a subject for artwork or fashion, usually in the medium of photography but also for painting or drawing, or is a miniature representation of something, or is a style, type, design, or is a simplified representation (usually mathematical) used to explain the workings of a real world system or event, or is the structural design of a complex system. Models are abstractions, concepts or software and are grouped into analogical models, business models, software development process models, and abstract models. An abtract model is an abstract or conceptual object used in the creation of a predictive formula. A model theory is the study of the representation of mathematical concepts, a mental model is a person's cognitive representation of an idea or thought process. The modelling is a process in neuro-linguistic programming, or a similitude in engineering, used in the scientific testing of physical models. A working model is just engineering software. An abstract model is seen as a causal model, or a mathematical model, or a scientific model which is model driven engineering (software development technique based on abstract models). The
1 2

NiemeyerC-01; NiemeyerC-02 www.climateprediction.net; many personal computers around the world participate and contribute via the internet to this climate

simulation
3 4 5 6

Meadows-72, Bremer-87 NATO-98, NATO-99, Hughes-84, NiemeyerK-03 www.wikipedia.com; www.mllerscience.com; Mller-06

metamodelling is a model of the modelling, the molecular modelling is used to mimic the behaviour of molecules. The Standard Model is the theory in particle physics which describes certain fundamental forces and particles, and a computer model is a computer program which attempts to simulate an abstract model of a particular system and usually builds upon a mathematical model. Models are also seen as physical or representational objects, a model (physical) is a physical representation of an object. Solid modelling is a study of unambiguous representations of the solid parts of an object, and a scale model is a replica or prototype of an object. The model building is a hobby centered around construction of material replicas. A 3D model is a three dimensional polygonal representation of an object, usually displayed with a computer In common understanding an art model is a person who poses for purposes of art, for example in art school or a model is a person whose occupation is to function as a living prop, often to display products. A promotional model is a person who promotes a product or service. A role model is a person who serves as a behavioural or moral example to others. All this becomes even more difficult, if combined with other heavy words. Then we have "model ideas" and "idea models" , or "system models" and "model systems, or model theories and theory models, or model of models and meta models. The general impression is a lack of rigid systematic structuring of the model paradigm, a considerable chaos in understanding and the need for further work on a theory of models, since the modelling is a very fundamental process and important for the generation and management of knowledge. In the philosophical literature the term model is used in close connotation with intelligent behaviour and cognition.7 In the year 1868 the founder of pragmatism, Charles Sanders Peirce, formulated: We have no ability to think without signs. One can see his theory of signs also as model theory. In his famous book The Logic of modern Physics physicist Percy W. Bridgman wrote 1927: I believe that the model is a useful and indeed inescapable tool of thought, in that it enables us to think about the unfamiliar in terms of the familiar. With the advances in the area of information technology many computer models have been developed and fundamentals to the model technique are discussed and published.8 The philosopher Herbert Stachowiak9 postulated that all cognition is cognition in models and by models. It means that any contact with the world, being out passive or active for recognizing of something, is relative to certain subjects, intentional selecting, focussing and in temporal limitation of its relation to the original. Stachowiak formulated the General Model Theory, which is also seen as the Neopragmatic Conception of Model. Recent work in the area of Radical Constructivism by Riegler and others
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as well as work on a Pragmatologic Theory of Models by Gelbmann and others is a

continuation of philosophical thinking in this area and needs to be considered. A most comprehensive and fundamental work towards a theory of models was published by Stachowiak. Stachowiak proposes the following taxonomy of models and distinguishes between:
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Physical models (Fig.1)

Mller-06 Emshoff-70, NiemeyerK-71, NiemeyerK-83, Zeigler-84, NATO-98 Stachowiak-73 Riegler-01, Gelbmann-02

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Semantic models (Fig.2)

While physical models are made out of material or have a physical content the semantic models are mind models, interpretations, or knowledge which are owned and processed by an intelligent system. The physical models are always connected with a semantic model, which provides the sense and interpretation of the physical model to the creator, operator or user of the model.

Physical Models

Two dimensional

Three dimensional

Picture/Image

Script/Text/ Drawing

PhysicalTechnical

BioTechnical

PsychoTechnical

SocioTechnical

Mechanical

Electro-mechanical

Electronic

Electro-chemical

Static

Dynamic

Analog

Digital

Fig. 1 Physical Models

General Model Theory

Stachowiak defined <M, O, K, t, Z> as a tupel of five parameters of which an object O and a model M representing the functional operation F, M= F(O). The object M is a model of object O at time interval t and in reference to the objective Z for a K-system K . Models M are substitutes for the original O for defined, cognisant or perceiving and acting, model-using subjects (intelligent systems) K within defined time frames t and by restrictions on given mental or real goals Z. The symbol K is written for the operator who performs the functional operation F which models O in M. This operator usually can be conceived of as a semiotic subject. With t we refer to a certain point or span of time for the performance of the operator. And Z abbreviates the interests or aims, purposes, targets, calibrating values which are to be accounted for by the operation of modelling O in M. Z just says to which degree M is a satisfying model of O. i.e. which selection of essentially modelling attributes is relevant.

Relationship between model and original (F)

Any model is by definition an image or representation of an original. Therefore models are always virtual, which is not real, but may display the full qualities of the real. Any model is also a construct developed or created by humans or more generally by an intelligent system for a given purpose or motivation. Either a model is seen as a representation of its original, or is seen to be a prototype for a future

Semantic Models

Emotional

Cognitive

Belief

Scientific

Meta-Physical

Poetic

Formal

Empirical Theoretical

OperativeProspective

Formal

Non-Formal

Fig. 2 Semantic Models

construction. Thus there is a certain relationship between a model and its original in reality or between the future construction and its model in reality. The generation of models is a directed process in time hence the model-original relationship can be separated into: A model is the representation or mapping of the original (perception-model)the past. (Fig.3) A model is the prototype or standard for a future construction (anticipation-model)the future. (Fig.4) The representation characteristic of models only does not reflect the prototype-construction-relation and is the reason for many misunderstandings. Models with the representation characteristic can be classified as perception-models; models with the prototype characteristic can be classified as anticipation-models. In other words a model is either a model of an existing object, entity or system, which could also be a model, or a model for an object, entity or system, which has to be changed, manipulated or generated in the future. The notation perception is introduced to describe the process of describing something already existing while anticipation is introduced to look into the future, or plan something, or engineer a new system and to indicate that this is a process oriented towards the future.

Normally only a few attributes, elements or

n: Noise, Attributes Not Relevant m Experim : ental Fram Attributes, e Additional Attributes

parameters

are those,

taken which

into are

consideration,

important or relevant for the desired

c: Core Attributes
Reduction of Com plexity Complexity

v: M odel Attributes
M Virtual, M : odel

purpose. The many attributes, elements or parameters, which have a noise effect and decrease the clearness of results or which have a small relevance, are not taken into consideration. This

O: Object in Reality

Fig. 3 Perception Model

effects a reduction of complexity of the real object within the model. It characterizes the fact, that models simplify the original or the future construction in order to systematize facts or to transmit knowledge and information, etc.11 A model is easier and less expensive to manipulate as the original or a construction. The modeloriginal relationship can be formulated using the set theory notation: For the perception-model: (Fig.3) With M = v U m With P = p U e and O = c U n and the mapping P: c v is defined. For the anticipation-model: (Fig.4) R = r U a the mapping A: p r is defined.
Adding Complexity e: Experimental Frame Attributes

a: Additional Attributes

p: M odel Attributes
P: Virtual, Prototype

r: Construct Attributes

R: Reality, Construction

Fig. 4 Anticipation Model

The model using operator or K-system (K)

Models are substitutes for the original/construct: For defined, cognizing or perceiving and acting model using subjects (K-systems) and within defined time frames and by restrictions on given mental or real actions.12 Models and in particular simulation models, are major elements of any intellectual system. On the basis of perception models, which are equivalent to the learning, memory, experience of the system, a goal oriented motivation and a repertoire of anticipation models, equivalent to planning models, the K-system is able to manipulate or anticipate the environment. In this view, the perception models and the anticipation models are essential ingredients of any intellectual behaviour. The K-system as discussed in this paper is simplified in order to describe and systematize the idea of the generalization of intelligent systems based on perception-models, motivation and anticipation11

The process of model building is in any case a constructive activity, also valid for perception models as discussed in this paper.

On the other hand the term generation of a construction is used only in the context of the anticipation model. A construction in this sense is only understood as a desired new object or entity of reality.
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A K-system has been defined and introduced as an element of the model theory by Stachowiak-73. The K illustrates the

abbreviation of Cybernetics (In German: Kybernetik).

models (Fig.5). In connection with a just interesting part of an external reality in relation to the K-system we identify an information cycle, with a feedback of information via the environment of the k-system. The K-system is in a simplified manner a repertoire of perception models, anticipation models and a motivator to form an acting subject. The perception models are representations of the external reality in the feedback-cycle; the anticipation models are prototypes for the external reality and produce guidance for the change or manipulation of the external reality. In this context the primary goal of the perception models is the best possible representation of the external environment and the generation of a pool of knowledge which is available for the creation and execution of anticipation models.
Motivation K-System

The anticipation models are controlled by the motivator and are based upon the set of relevant perception models. The acting subject can be a human or any capable biological structure, a computer or a compound out of these elements, e.g. groups, organizations etc. The motivator within the K-system produces the objectives for the combination of the modular elements within the repertoire of perception models, which results in the

Perception

Anticipation

Environment

Fig. 5 K-System

anticipation models. The basic motivation is assumed to be a change of the external reality in a direction that the stability of the cycle will be increased or the survivability of the K-system will be maximized. The perception- and anticipation-models within the K-systems are called internal (endogenous) models. 13 A K-system has the ability to increase the quality of the internal models with the tendency of an increasing adaptation and approximation of the external reality (learning).

Purpose (Z)
The most determining principle is that models are developed and applied in order to fulfil given goals or motivations. This reflects the pragmatic or neo-pragmatic school of philosophical thinking. The dominating attribute of a model design and its simulation application is the objective or motivation for this activity. Examples of the objectives are (Fig.6): Research, which creates new insights in the phenomena of the environment, including organisations, operations, planning, procedures, technologies, etc. Development and engineering which create new options for activity on the basis of the research insights. This includes the assessment of options and the identification of the best solutions and prototypes. Testing, this adds flavour, noise or dirt in order to test the functionality and robustness of solutions and prototypes in stress conditions.

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Exogenous (external) models are generated by the K-system for interaction with other K-systems to form K-systems on higher

levels as e.g. in organisations.

Training/exercises, which enable humans to operate and control the developed and tested solutions in quasi-real conditions.

Noise Analyses

Reality

Research Core Model

Reduction of Complexity

Prototyping Engineering Construct

Adding Complexity Testing

Construct Syntheses
Test Environment Training Environment

Construct

Fig. 6 Model Evolutions

The objectives cannot be seen in isolation. There is a clear direction or sequence of activities (Fig.6). The training/exercises only make sense after verification of the solutions (prototypes, structures, organisations, procedures, technologies, systems, and operations) in testing frameworks. The testing can only be done after the selection of the best developed and engineered solutions, which in turn is only possible on the basis of research insights. It is impossible to turn these sequences around, e.g. a training/exercise activity and framework is not a valid and useful approach for the research. The intention for research is the identification of systematic insights, which can only be done by elimination of real-life noise and dirt-effects. On the other hand in training/exercises these effects are essential ingredients for the human trainees, since they represent reality in the human environment. The objectives of the simulations are therefore leading to and determining different model constructs. A simulation is an experiment on the basis of a suitable model and experimental frame (Fig.7). The methods and principles of scientific experimentation in the implementation, application, and evaluation phases are fully applied in the case of research and analysis. The credibility and/or acceptability of the results are determined by the experimental frame, the purpose of the investigation, the model used, and the reproducibility of results. Time is the independent parameter in a simulation From an initial state or situation, the time and state of the model are changed and advanced either continuously or in time steps or at events until a final state has been reached . A simulation is a stochastic simulation if relevant processes are based on random events in the simulation. Based on identical initial states, the random events produce significant different final states within the reproduced simulations. A sample of simulation runs results in a probability distribution of the final states. A simulation is deterministic if no relevant random events influence the processes. In this case, reproduced simulation runs should result in identical final states.

System

Manipulation

Reality

Objects

Experimental Frame

Real Life Experiment

Interactive Simulations are open to human operators, who are able to interact with the model while the simulation is progressing and to change parameters. For analysis purposes or the testing of plans and procedures this simulation experimental is also gaming. known For
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Virtual

Model

Simulation Application Use

Fig. 7 Models and Simulation

as

training

purposes in command and control settings it is known as CAX (Computer Assisted Exercise).

Grouping of K-systems
Any organisational system requires steady adaptation like any other complex living system or organism. To this end, potential improvement options need to be continuously tested and compared with a view to their feasibility, effectiveness and robustness in a wide range of possible scenarios and taking into
Motivation

Strategic
Perceived Situation

Planning

Motivation

Operational
Perceived Situation

Planning

Motivation

Motivation Planning Planning Perceived Situation

Tactical
Perceived Situation

Fig. 8: Hierarchy of K-systems

account all of the sensitive factors and their inter-dependence. However, as the human brain may only consider a limited number of system entities and interrelations simultaneously, modelling and simulation tools and methods become necessary to support the planning and structuring of large organizations and social systems. Since models permit account to be taken of the complex interactions of modern day combined elements of organizations and its synergistic effects, simulation approaches do provide the requisite basic instruments. Yet it must be borne in mind that any analysis does have its limitations due to very practical reasons such as, for example, the availability of data, time, and skilled personnel.

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The use of catchwords in some literature creates confusion and misleading connotations. Nowadays practically all exercises are

assisted by computers, therefore the term CAX has no meaning. Other misleading catchwords are for example virtual simulation, constructive simulation, or life simulation. These ill defined terms indicate a missing understanding of the model and simulation phenomena, since any simulation has the virtual attribute, any simulation applies a constructed model and any simulation is living.

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Large and complex systems are always hierarchically organised (Fig.8). On a low level, the system is physically identifiable in its components such as humans, equipment, vehicles, etc. These components are integrated into formations which have a particular task to accomplish although restricted in terms of location and time. On a next higher level, the system elements resemble the formations of the lower level. These may be integrated into major units and undertake particular yet wider ranging targets and tasks. At high levels, the system is made up of the medium level units.

K-S ys te m A A-A M-A P-A C

K-S yste m B A-B M-B P-B

Fig. 9 Communication between two K-systems

K-systems interact in dialogs, discussions, games, or communicate (Fig. 9). This interaction or communication is performed using models. Words, terms, paragraphs, mathematical formula, literature or computer software in general are models in this sense. This external virtual reality of a K-system is therefore a model as well and serves in the same time as the external reality or external model of a second K-system. At the same time it is object of the manipulations of all participating K-systems respectively their internal anticipation-models and is the original for the internal perception-models. The external models are the essential intellectual connections between the K-systems and are the carrier of information. Jointly formulated and manipulated external models are representations or prototypes of the jointly perceived or anticipated, accepted external reality, which is of common interest. A model is in relation to a K-system or a model using subject an external model, if the same model can be realised and accepted by another K-system (process of communication). An external model becomes an internal model of the K-system on the next higher level.

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In case the K-systems organize a work specialization in the sense of the functions perception,
Motivation
Motivation Anticipation Perception

Higher-Level K-System

Motivation

Perception
Anticipation

Motivation

Anticipation
Anticipation

Perception

Perception

Fig. 10 Aggregations of K-Systems

anticipation and motivation, the overall system can be seen as a K-system on the next higher level Fig.10). The elements of this system are the participating K-systems and their external models, which now become internal models for the superimposed K-system. An external model is an element of a KSystem on the next higher level. Activities within an operations centre follow a pattern equivalent to the traditional staff process in any organisation (Fig.11). The pattern starts with situation analyses collecting empirical information of environment elements. This information is aggregated, systematised, structured, and combined with an

Objective (Motivation) Analysis of Objective

Situation (Perception)

Structuring Planning (Anticipation)

Knowledge Base Aggregation Empirical Information Collection

Development of Options

Assessment of Options Decision Planning

Situation Execution

existing knowledge base. The situation perception is in consequence used to develop operational
Fig. 11 Typical processes in a C2 staff organisation

options and to perform look=ahead analyses addressing what-ifs. These processes fall within the domain of modelling, and, properly used, can improve the quality and timeliness of the development of alternative options, assessment, decision and subsequently option implementation and execution management.

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This leads to the modelling of command and control (C2) systems. Typical characteristics of C2-systems are the mix of human operators and systems of advanced information techniques. C2-systems are goal and process oriented (feedback via environment, control). They are performing intelligent behaviour, are distinct from environment and perceive the environment through sensors. They are acting on the environment through effectors (command), and have a hierarchical structure.15 Within the research area and domain of artificial intelligence and software development the notion of agents was generated. Typical characteristics of agents are the autonomous execution, the communication with other agents, the monitoring of the state of its environment, the ability to use symbols and abstractions, the ability to exploit significant amounts of domain knowledge, the capability of adaptive goal-oriented behaviour, the ability to learn from the environment, the tolerance of error, unexpected, or wrong input, the timely response in real time, and the use of natural language. In this sense a K-system and an agent are identical based on the description of these characteristics. If assumed that a human is equivalent to the K-system or agent, the model of a human can be defined as an atomic agent within the context of modelling the hierarchical process or the C2-system. In a recursive definition any agent or K-system is an atomic agent, or an atomic agent plus an agent, or an agent plus constructs of the information technology in order to form a hierarchy within the C2 process.

Conclusions
The systematic formulation of a model theory and further work in this area will provide a considerable improvement of the understanding the intelligent behaviour of humans and the decision making processes of higher level human organisations including advanced constructs of information technology like simulation models and decision support tools. If the agent technology and the combination of knowledge bases with goal oriented manipulation of decision support tools in hybrid (human-computer), systems is accepted and used, based on systematic model theoretic approaches, an improved decision making of mankind for the obvious problems of the future should be possible. The phenomenon of modelling seems very fundamental and should get high attention in the research and academic area, since it is a bases in many disciplines ranking from philosophy to the pragmatic development and engineering of software. In consequence the intention of this paper is to propose an academic discipline dealing with the phenomenon of modelling and to generate systematic structures for the understanding and work in this area in the future.

List of references

15

Boyd-77; The C2 process as feedback loop is described in many military staff papers and fundamental for operational concepts.

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