Safe and Sustainable Aviation in Africa Alignment of Policies, Regulations and Resources.

Pam, D.R.
, (2012) Safe and sustainable aviation in the AFI region i

Dung%R.%Pam%
SAFE%AND%SUSTAINABLE%AVIATION%IN%THE%AFRICAN%AND%%
INDIAN%OCEAN%REGION%(AFI):%
ALIGNMENT%OF%GOVERNMENT%POLICY,%
REGULATION%AND%RESOURCES.%
Pam, D.R., (2012) Safe and sustainable aviation in the AFI region i
Dung R. Pam

SAFE AND SUSTAINABLE AVIATION
IN THE AFRICAN AND INDIAN OCEAN REGION (AFI):
ALIGNMENT OF GOVERNMENT POLICY,
REGULATION AND RESOURCES.
Submitted as part of the requirement for the award of
MSc. in Air Safety Management at City University.
I certify that this project is wholly my own work and accordance with the project
regulations.
All material that has been extracted from others has been clearly referenced.
This Project complies with the Project Regulations
Signed
Supervisor: Dr. Steve Bond
February 2012
Word Count: 14,556
Unrestricted circulation
Pam, D.R., (2012) Safe and sustainable aviation in the AFI region ii
Acknowl edgement
I am extremely grateful to all the wonderful people who offered me encouragement, support and
guidance in accomplishing this project. I wish to extend my gratitude to the entire academic and
administrative staff of the School of Engineering and Mathematical Sciences at City University,
London.
I will like to thank especially my project supervisor, Dr. Steve Bond for his patient, and continuous
expert guidance and Professor Roger Wootton for his conceptual suggestions. My sincere
gratitude to Ms. Fleur Talbot, Ms. Kate Marr and Ms. Anny Johnson for their most efficient
administrative support. Special thanks to Tim Whitaker, Dr. Philip Shearman, Andy Hofton and
Stephen Shaw for their insightful and motivating lectures.
I would also like to acknowledge the support and encouragement I received from the fantastic
people in Virgin Atlantic Airways especially Mr. Rob Holliday and Chris Hall.
Most of all, I would like to thank my lovely family Ruth, Niken, Shagass, Zereh, Bess and Samm for
their unwavering support and patience while on this course of study.
This project is dedicated to my friend, colleague and founder of the Nigeria Aviation Safety
Initiative (NASI), late Capt. Jerry Agbeyegbe who was killed for his radical, relentless and fearless
views on aviation safety in Nigeria.
(Any inaccuracies that may be found in this study are solely my responsibility and should not be attributed to any of the
aforementioned persons.)
Pam, D.R., (2012) Safe and sustainable aviation in the AFI region iii
Executi ve Summar y
Aviation is considered a vital tool for economic development in Africa. This becomes more critical
considering the level of surface transport development across the continent. It generated around
450,000 jobs and contributed more than $10 billion USD to Africas GDP in 2007 (ATAG)
1
. While air
transport plays an important role in itself, its main role is to facilitate economic activity.
Unfortunately, the region has suffered a history of high airline failure rates, poor infrastructure and an
accident rate that is 8 times the global average. A major challenge now facing the continent is the lack
of sustainable levels of the requisite, skilled workforce at all levels. This is necessary to steer the
course of both governance and industry. The global community through various government and non-
governmental agencies has proffered a plethora of initiatives and interventions, designed to redress
the situation. However, the successes recorded through these efforts have been marginal.
It is time Africa learns from its past mistakes and focuses on achieving safe, sustainable, reliable and
efficient air travel. It must be supported by sound infrastructure and concern for the environment. All
these criteria must to be strategically laid out in a detailed policy and supported by legal processes
that will aid successful implementation. Governments must be transparent, accountable and guided
by democratic principles. Transformational leadership should result in social and political stability that
will create the suitable environment for regional economic integration. This integration will be easier to
achieve if the region aligns its aviation policies and regulations to optimise the workforce available. All
member States must pool resources to invest in infrastructure, aircraft acquisitions, fuel purchase-
agreements and workforce training. Africa must understand that all infrastructure or equipment
procured will need to be entrusted into the hands of a competent and skilled workforce if the industry
is to achieve its objectives. Aviation professionals in the region must be proactive and visible. The
airlines should consider strategic commercial agreements and mergers to benefit from possible cost
synergies. Safety and economic benefits will accrue from having a single African sky, a fly Africa policy
and one Multi-lateral Air Service Agreement between Africa and Indian Ocean region and the rest of
the world.
Creating human capital takes time; lost time is irretrievable. The region is running out of both time and
human capital and the competition is not waiting.
Pam, D.R., (2012) Safe and sustainable aviation in the AFI region iv
1
The economic and social benefits of air transport 2008, Air transport action group
Tabl e of contents
List of Abbreviations x
Chapter 1 1
1. Introduction 1
Research detail 1
Problem statement 1
Scope of research 2
Hypothesis and Assumptions 2
Definitions 3
Definition: Safety and Safety Management System (SMS) 3
Definition: Sustainable and Sustainability 3
Definition: Human capital 4
Project objectives 5
Literature review 5
Methodology and Study summary 5
Chapter 2 7
2. Discussion 7
The AFI region 7
Figure 1. Map of Africa showing the various economic groupings; Courtesy of Wikipedia 8
Figure 2: Western built hull losses 1999-2008, Courtesy Boeing Commercial Airplanes 9
Can the state of Africas Economic development support 21st century aviation? 10
World economic forums 12 pillars of sustainable development 10
Pam, D.R., (2012) Safe and sustainable aviation in the AFI region v
Figure 3: The 12 pillars of global competitiveness adapted from WEF GCI 2011-2012 11
Figure 4: Top 12 African Countries with percentage development of aviation infrastructure
(Culled from World economic forum executive opinion survey 2011) 11
The five progressive stages of economic development 11
Figure 5: Table showing the 5 stages of economic development and associated GDP per capita.
Courtesy world economic forum 12
Figure 6: Map of Africa showing GDP per capita in 2011(Courtesy IMF) 13
The verdict 13
Chapter 3 15
A Political, Economic, Social, Technological and Environmental (PESTE) analysis of the African
aviation industry 15
PESTE: Political factors 15
Influence of governments and public opinion 15
American government Policy 15
Middle East renaissance: Emirates 16
Far East synergies 16
African governments in the Airline business 17
Political initiatives in home markets 18
International Multilateral agreements and conventions 19
Regulatory bodies and processes 19
Trading policies and labour laws 20
Regional aviation pressure groups 20
Terrorism 21
Wars and conflicts 22
Pre-independence Colonial world wars 22
Figure 7: Map showing 1914 Colonies in Africa (Courtesy Google). 23
Post-independence Cold war 23
PESTE economic factors 25
Vilfredo Paretos 20/80 rule 25
Pam, D.R., (2012) Safe and sustainable aviation in the AFI region vi
Capital flight 25
Regional economic trends 25
External economic trends leading to increased competition 26
Open Skies and Yamoussoukro Decision (YD) 27
Unjustifiably high Taxes 27
About Foreign Aid or bait 28
PESTE: Social 28
Demographics 28
A culture corrupted or a culture of corruption 29
Prebendalism 30
Mobility of Human resource 31
The push pull factors: Poor psychological contract. 32
Figure 8: The Psychological contract: Courtesy Business ball.com 33
Creating and maintaining a highly skilled workforce 33
Policies on women participation 34
PESTE: Technology 35
Behind the times 35
Infrastructure: Airports safety and security 35
Figure 9: Pyramid showing Frank E. Birds adaptation of Heinrichs ratio to aviation accidents. 36
A sky-full of new planes 36
PESTE: Ecological and environmental issues 37
Chapter 4 39
Activities of some key aviation organisations in the AFI region 39
African Union (AU) and African Civil Aviation Commission (AFCAC) 39
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) 40
IATAs Operational Safety Audit (IOSA) 41
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and its International Aviation Safety Assessment (IASA)
41
Pam, D.R., (2012) Safe and sustainable aviation in the AFI region vii
ICAOs Universal Safety Operations Audit Programme (USOAP) 42
African Airlines Association (AFRAA) and the balancing act 43
Chapter 5 45
The Survey and its report 45
Limitations 45
Introduction 45
Figure 10. A table showing nationalities of respondent with number of respondents in
parenthesis 46
Survey objectives 46
Survey design and Methods 47
Delivery and data collection 47
Survey findings and conclusions 48
Figure 11: Survey response to question 6 48
Figure 12 Survey response to question 7 49
External factors affecting aviation safety 49
Figure 13: Survey response to question 8: 50
Chapter 6 56
Conclusions and recommendations 56
Conclusions 56
Recommendations: Governments actions 57
Political strategies for Synergy 57
Transformational Leadership 58
Transparency and accountability in governance 58
Pam, D.R., (2012) Safe and sustainable aviation in the AFI region viii
The perfect substitute for foreign aid 59
Establishment of a free trade Area covering the entire continent 59
Fly Africa Policy 59
Recommendations: Government and Industry Stakeholder actions 59
Clearly define African Civil Aviation Commissions (AFCAC) role 60
Improve coordination and alignment of safety strategies among partner organisations 60
Design a one size fits all Audit Programme 61
Training and retaining skilled Personnel 61
Active participation by Professionals 61
Joint investments in aviation infrastructure 62
Pooling of resources to enhance utilisation of existing structures 62
Full implementation of the Yamoussoukro decision (YD) 63
Single Air Service agreement between the AFI region and the rest of the world. 63
The Future: liberalised Consolidation 64
Appendix A: Survey questions 66
References, notes and Sources: 1
Pam, D.R., (2012) Safe and sustainable aviation in the AFI region ix
Li st of Abbrevi ati ons
ADREP Accident Data Reporting
ACI Airports Council International
ACIP Africa and Indian Ocean Comprehensive Implementation Programme
AEC African Economic Community
AFCAC African Civil Aviation Commission
AFI-CIS African and Indian Ocean Cooperative Inspectorate Scheme
AFRAA African Airlines Association
AMU Arab Maghreb Union
ART Aviation Round Table
CAA Civil Aviation Authority
CEMAC Central African Economic and Monetary Community
CEN-SAD Community of Sahel Saharan States
COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa
COSCAP Co-operative Development of Safety and Continuos Airworthiness Programme
EAC East African Community
EASA European Aviation Safety Agency
ECCAIRS European Co-ordination Centre for Accident and Incident Reporting System
ECCAS Economic Community of East African States
EU European Union
EUROCONTROL European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation
FAA Federal Aviation Administration
FDMP Flight Data Management Program
GCI Global Competitiveness Index
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GSIC Global Safety Information Centre
IATA International Air Transport Association
ICAO International Civil Aviation Organisation
IFALPA International Federation of Air Line Pilots Association
IFATCA International Federation of Air Traffic Controllers Associations
IMF International Monetary Fund
IPSOA Implementation Program for Safe Operations in Africa
Pam, D.R., (2012) Safe and sustainable aviation in the AFI region x
ISAGO IATA Safety Audit for Ground Operations
MENA Middle East and North Africa
MRO Maintenance Repairs and Overhaul
NASI Nigeria Aviation Safety initiative
NEPAD New Partnership for Africa's Development
NGO No Governmental Organisation
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
SADC Southern African Development Community
SMS Safety Management System
SSA Sub Saharan Africa
USA United States of America
USOAP Universal Safety Oversight Audit Program
YD Yamoussoukro Decision
Pam, D.R., (2012) Safe and sustainable aviation in the AFI region xi
Chapter 1
1. Introduction
1.1. Research detail
1.1.1. Problem statement
Aviation is an industry of strategic importance to Africa. Africa depends mostly on air transport to link
people with each other and the rest of the world at large. A safe, secure and efficient aviation Industry
is crucial to support the range of businesses, trade, tourism, cultural, and social activities that
significantly contribute to Africas economic growth and prosperity.
2
The development of the industry
is threatened by a plethora of socio-economic and political issues, including the public perception that
the industry in Africa is both unsafe and inefficient
3
. A survey of regulatory agencies found that 27 out
of the 54 States audited lacked effective implementation of critical elements of a safety oversight
system. These Countries were placed under the Audit Results Review Board (ARRB) of the
International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO). In 2007 a further audit of 53 African States was
conducted by the FAA, IATA and ICAO. A comprehensive report (Schlumberger 2010)
4
of the audit
results rated 6 States as good, 16 States as marginal and 31 States as poor.
Although it is not the only continent composed of a number of third world Countries, Africa remains
the only continent where the number of people living below the World Bank poverty level (less than
$1.25 a day) has increased in the last 25 years
5
.
The factors involved are numerous and include the presence of conflict, corruption and insecurity.
Pam, D.R., (2012) Safe and sustainable aviation in the AFI region 1
2
International monetary fund (IMF), Regional economic outlook, sub-Saharan Africa; recovery and new Risks.
3
rd
May 2011. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24325
3
CAP 776, Chapter 7, page 2. Global fatal accident review, 1997-2006. UK CAA, 21 July 2008
4
Schlumberger, Charles E.(2010),Open skies for Africa: Implementing the Yamoussoukro Decision. World Bank.
Appendix C pages 199-205.
5
Hazel M. McFerson,(2010) 'Extractive Industries and African Democracy: Can the "Resource Curse" be
Exorcised?, International Studies Perspectives, Vol. 11, 2010, p. 335.
Others are the lack of regional co-operation, group synergy, political will, aligned government policies,
requisite physical infrastructure and a skilled and experienced workforce. This thesis will attempt to
examine the problems that have made this task difficult to achieve and to determine the preliminary
steps towards overcoming these challenges.
1.1.2. Scope of research
The aim of this project is to investigate the political, socio-economic and environmental issues that
have the potential to affect the safety and sustainability of civil aviation in the African and Indian Ocean
(AFI) region as delineated by ICAO. The vastness and diversifying factors of this region will make
detailed analysis of all factors relating to the 54 Countries including over 800 languages and peoples
beyond the scope of this project.
As a result, where appropriate, a generic summary will be applied and where necessary specific
details will be discussed.
Areas of focus include commercial airline operations safety issues, activities of key stakeholders, trade
groups, and professional aviation associations and non-governmental bodies. The effectiveness or
otherwise of their efforts towards aviation safety and development will also be highlighted.
1.1.3. Hypothesis and Assumptions
This project has been carried out to:
Prove or disprove that the lack of requisite human capital is a significant factor in the inability of
the African aviation industry to attain its safety targets and improve its economic performance.
Test the assumption that alignment of the AFI regions civil aviation policy and simultaneous
harmonisation of regulations and training standards will enhance the effectiveness of the
available workforce.
Test the assumption that the plethora of external and internal organisations working to enhance
safety and efficiency in the industry will be more effective if their activities are co-ordinated.
1.2. Definitions
1.2.1. Definition: Safety and Safety Management System (SMS)
In aviation, there is no absolute safety. Risks are ever present and sometimes with technological
advancement and innovations, new and unknown risks are either created or discovered.
Reason (1997 page 181)
6
briefly defines safety as a dynamic non-event.
Safety in the context of aviation is defined as the management of risks to harm or damage to property
to an acceptable level through a process of hazard identification, risk management, remedial action
planning and continuous improvement
7
. This acceptable level is usually determined by the regulatory
authority. However, trust in the competency of the regulator is undermined every time an accident
occurs.
A Safety Management System (SMS) is a systematic, explicit and comprehensive process for the
management of safety risks that integrates operations and technical systems with financial and
human resource management for all activities related to any organisation.
8
1.2.2. Definition: Sustainable and Sustainability
Concisely defined as the ability to endure. There are three distinct foundation theories that attempt
to define sustainable development namely:
Eco-centric,
Anthropocentric and
Economic theories.
Each of these places emphasis on a different resource or ideology leading to a range of definitions
revolving around a common theme, although varying in their detail.
6
Reason, James (1997) Managing the risks of organisational accidents, Reprinted 2006. Ashgate
7
ICAO DOC 9859 Safety management manual.
8
OKane,T and Rogan, E (2008) Safety management tools and methods,(Handout MSc. Air Safety
Management) City university, London.
The natural step as postulated in 1989 by the Swedish scientist Dr Karl-Henrik Robert is built on
the eco-centric foundation theory. This theory places emphasis on environmental protection
9
.
Compared to the other two foundation theories, it appears to have more relevance to the current
socio-economic stage of Africas development. It clearly defines four principles that require serious
consideration namely:
The earths natural resources are removed faster than nature can replace them.
Human activities produce more wastes than the earth can safely degrade.
Human activity consumes more naturally available food sources than they can generate or
produce. This ultimately leads to declining quantities.
People should not be subject to conditions that undermine their ability to meet their future
needs.
The Brundtland report of 1987, titled Our common future appears to take its origin from the
anthropocentric foundation theory.
10
The works of Herman Daly (1991-1994)
11
are based on the economic foundation theory of
sustainability of 1987. Daly posits that economic growth cannot continue infinitely by increasing
system efficiency alone. A balance has to be achieved between growth, sustainability and the
equitable distribution of wealth. Records show there are over 100 definitions of sustainability and
sustainable development, but the best known is that credited to the World Commission on
Environment and Development (WCED). This suggests that development is sustainable where it
"meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet
their own needs.
1.2.3. Definition: Human capital
9
http://www.thenaturalstep.org/en/canada/the-system-conditions
10
Brundtland report. Our common future (1987) http://www.un-documents.net/wced-ocf.htm
11
Daly, Herman E. (1991). SteadyState Economics, (second edition)., Washington D.C.: Island Press.
The term originated by Schultz (1961)
12
can be defined as the skills, knowledge, and experience
possessed by an individual or population, viewed for their value or cost to an organisation or country
that can be augmented by appropriate investment. This was further expounded by Bontis et al.
(1999)
13
as the combined intelligence, skills and expertise that gives an organisation its distinctive
character. The human elements capable of learning, changing, innovating and providing the creative
thrust which if properly motivated, can ensure the long-term survival of the group.
1.3. Project objectives
Determine the current stage of Africas socio-economic development.

Explore the potential impact of the regional growth forecast on the key indicators of
sustainable aviation development.
Determine why activities of key aviation organisations in the region have not being very
successful.
Test arguments and assumptions through public survey.
1.4. Literature review
There is an abundance of qualitative research material on this topic, however due to lapses in
regulatory practices there is lack of sufficient quantitative data. A detailed operation of non-IATA
airlines is not readily accessible and sometimes is unreliable. The Internet provides the largest source
of material. The print and electronic media are also a comparative sources. The relevant articles,
journals, magazines, books and other print and electronic media used in this research are detailed in
the references and footnotes part of this report.
1.5. Methodology and Study summary
The research methods used involve:
12
Schultz, T. W. (1961) investment in human capital, American economic review, 51 pages 1-17.
13
Bontis,N, Dragoneti, N C, Jacobsen, K and Roos, G (1999). The knowledge toolbox: A review of tools
available to measure and manage intangible resources, European management journal, Issue 17, pages 63-76.
Contextual study of material from the World Economic Forum (WEF), the World Bank and the
International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Conduct a PESTE analysis of the aviation industry in the AFI region. With emphasis on sub-
Saharan Africa (SSA) and activities relevant to the project.
Review historical data to determine if there are any underlying causes for the perennial
regional conflicts, political instability and slow economic progress recorded in the region.
Review the safety related activities and programmes of certain key organisations in the AFI
region.
Design, disseminate, retrieve and analyse a survey to collate external opinions on key
assumptions.
Finally, conduct an online, informal and anonymous aviation centred discussion about safety
issues in Africa. The objective is to have an idea of the general feeling and expectation of the
aviation community on related issues. The social network chosen is the Professional Pilot
Rumour Network, known as 'PPRUNE'.
Chapter 2
2. Discussion
2.1. The AFI region
The region is composed of 54 independent Countries and 7 dependent territories, with a population
of 1.097 billion people having over 1000 different ethnic groups and cultures
14
. As at December 2011,
all the independent Countries are members of the African Union (AU) except for Morocco
15
. There are
various regional economic, social and political groupings across the continent. The seven territories
within the AFI region under the political control of certain European Union (EU) Countries are:
Saint Helena, an overseas territory of the United Kingdom.
Reunion and Mayotte, being overseas territories of France.
Madeira, an overseas territory of Portugal.
Melilla, Ceuta and Canary Island are overseas territories of Spain.
These seven territories have a combined population of less than 4 million people.
Managing these rather complex demographics may appear to be an impossible task but the short
comparison below is prove to the contrary.
India, another emerging economy, is governed as a single independent democratic country. It has a
population of 1,210,193,422 (2011 estimates); a larger population than the entire African continent.
Yet, it possesses one civil aviation policy and one regulatory framework. With a Land area of 3.28
million square km, it is small compared to Africas 30.2 million square km including adjacent islands. In
demographic comparison, India has 1,652 languages among which 14 to 22 are considered as official
languages.
14
Africa UNESCO 2005.
15
http://www.africa-union.org/root/au/memberstates/map.htm.
To the Afro-centric, Africa is viewed as the jewel of the tropics, a beautiful and rich continent that is
saturated with influences that have spanned centuries of slave trade, colonisation and now covert
political and economic manipulation. Others rightly argue that, the slave trade was made possible only
by the active participation of many of Africa ethnic leaders. That colonisation created the basic
framework for peaceful co-existence among the warring African tribal groups and provided periods of
social and political stability; even if it was authoritarian.
Whatever divergent views exist, all agree that Africa needs to learn from its experiences and use its
current strength and opportunities to chart a desirable future.
1. Figure 1. Map of Africa showing the various economic groupings; Courtesy of Wikipedia
The map above shows, increasing economic dependency and social interaction among the various
States has resulted in a number of overlaps in the economic groupings. This is a good sign that
regional integration may lead to a single economic group.
Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1999 through 2008
Accidents per
million departures
United States
and Canada
0.4
Latin America
and Caribbean
2.5
Europe
0.7
China
0.2
Middle East
2.4
Africa
8.8
Asia
1.8
World
1.1
Oceania
0.0
(Excluding
China)
ESSI
CAST
COSCAPS
COSCAPS
CIS
3.0
RASG-PA
Regional Perspective
Accident Rates Vary by Region of the World
Author, , Filename.ppt | 10
2. Figure 2: Western built hull losses 1999-2008, Courtesy Boeing Commercial Airplanes
16
Evolution whether genetically or socially, is about creating an edge over the odds and maintaining that
edge. It is a process of natural selection commonly phrased survival of the fittest. An economic
application of what Darwin described as natural selection by man (Darwin, 1859)
17
is observed in
Michael Porters Competitive advantage (Porter, 1985)
18
. The same strategic principle applies to
both business corporations and nations. The strategy is to conceal known weaknesses and use
available strengths to mitigate any threats. The objective is to control the factors needed to maintain
permanent advantage.
16
Gerardo M. Hueto January 2010 Regional Safety Program Manager Boeing Commercial Airplanes
17
http://darwin-online.org.uk/content/frameset?viewtype=side&itemID=F373&pageseq=55 Darwin, C. R.
1859. On the origin of species by means of natural selection, or the preservation of favoured races in the
struggle for life. London: John Murray. Chapter 1 page 32.
18
Porter, Michael. E,(1985) Competitive advantage; creating and maintaining superior performance. Free press.
In the coalitions of global economies, Africa has been the underdog. Conversely, if it attempts to
reverse its status, it will threaten the position of nations who are likely to be displaced in the current
hierarchy.
If Africa has been dehumanised, it is because it allowed itself to become a soft target. As other
nations have realised, the result of synergic efforts is greater than the sum of individual efforts acting in
isolation. The truth about global politics is that nations are continuously in a state of competition with
each other. Those who choose to co-operate with each other, create the critical mass that gives them
the much-desired competitive advantage.
2.2. Can the state of Africas Economic development support 21st century aviation?
2.2.1. World economic forums 12 pillars of sustainable development
There is no doubt that aviation is a strategic economic activity. It will be improper to discuss the
industry without considering the state of this regions economic development. The World Economic
Forum (WEF) uses a list of 12 important factors to measure the economic state and subsequent
Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) of Nations
19
. These factors are categorised into three distinct
groups described as:
Basic requirements.
Efficiency enhancers.
Innovation and sophistication factors.
19
World economic forum global competitive index report 2011-2012, http://www.weforum.org/en/initiatives/
gcp/Global%20Competitiveness%20Report/index.htm
Basic requirements Efficiency enhancers Innovation and
sophistication
Institutions
Higher education and training
Business sophistication
Infrastructure
Goods market efficiency
Innovation
Macro-economic environment
Labour market efficiency
Health and primary education
Financial market development
Technological readiness
Market size
3. Figure 3: The 12 pillars of global competitiveness adapted from WEF GCI 2011-2012
These factors and their groupings, determine the drivers of the economy.
Country
Percentage
Development of
Aviation
infrastructure
Country
% Development
of Aviation
infrastructure
South Africa Tunisia Egypt Ethiopia Namibia Kenya
87.1%
80% 78.6% 77.1% 72.9% 71.4%
Morocco Cote divoire Senegal Cape Verde Ghana Mozambique
67.1% 64.3% 64.3% 61.4% 60.0% 58.6%
4. Figure 4: Top 12 African Countries with percentage development of aviation infrastructure
(Culled from World economic forum executive opinion survey 2011)
2.2.2. The five progressive stages of economic development
The WEF uses two major criteria to determine economic developmental stages of all nations.
The first criterion is the level of GDP per capita at market exchange rates.
The second criterion is the level at which the Countries are factor driven.
After complex analysis, three main stages and two transitional stages emerge: see figure 5 below.
1
.
1
:

T
h
e

G
l
o
b
a
l

C
o
m
p
e
t
i
t
i
v
e
n
e
s
s

I
n
d
e
x

2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
10
innovation and sophistication factors subindex includes the
pillars critical to countries in the innovation-driven
stage. The three subindexes are shown in Figure 1.
The weights attributed to each subindex in every
stage of development are shown in Table 1. To obtain
the weights, a maximum likelihood regression of GDP
per capita was run against each subindex for past years,
allowing for different coefficients for each stage of
development.
21
The rounding of these econometric esti-
mates led to the choice of weights displayed in Table 1.
Table 1: Weights of the three main subindexes at each
stage of development
Factor- Efficiency- Innovation-
driven driven driven
Subindex stage (%) stage (%) stage (%)
Basic requirements 60 40 20
Efficiency enhancers 35 50 50
Innovation and sophistication factors 5 10 30
Implementation of stages of development
Two criteria are used to allocate countries into stages of
development. The first is the level of GDP per capita at
market exchange rates. This widely available measure is
used as a proxy for wages, because internationally com-
parable data on wages are not available for all countries
covered. The thresholds used are shown in Table 2. A
second criterion measures the extent to which countries
are factor driven. This is measured by the share of
exports of mineral goods in total exports (goods and
services), assuming that countries that export more than
70 percent of mineral products (measured using a five-
year average) are to a large extent factor driven.
22
Table 2: Income thresholds for establishing stages of
development
Stage of development GDP per capita (in US$)
Stage 1: Factor driven < 2,000
Transition from stage 1 to stage 2 2,0003,000
Stage 2: Efficiency driven 3,0009,000
Transition from stage 2 to stage 3 9,00017,000
Stage 3: Innovation driven > 17,000
Any countries falling in between two of the three stages
are considered to be in transition. For these countries,
the weights change smoothly as a country develops,
reflecting the smooth transition from one stage of devel-
opment to another. This allows us to place increasingly
more weight on those areas that are becoming more
important for the countrys competitiveness as the coun-
try develops, ensuring that the GCI can gradually
penalize those countries that are not preparing for the
next stage. The classification of countries into stages of
development is shown in Table 3.
Adjustments to the GCI
Over the past year, the Global Competitiveness Index
has been put through a rigorous analysis by the Joint
Research Centre of the European Commission (JRC).
The JRC is widely recognized as holding the worlds
leading expertise on composite indicators, such as the
GCI. Overall the JRC found that the GCI is robust to
changes in weights and is a solid index. Box 2 provides
details of their findings.
In addition to this overall assessment, the JRC made
some recommendations on how to further strengthen
the GCI. Based on their findings, as well as the Forums
own analysis and changes in data availability, some
minor adjustments to the structure of the GCI have
been made, as follows:
In the institutions pillar (1st), a measure of the extent
of bribery and irregular payments derived from the
Executive Opinion Survey has been added under ethics
and corruption. The index of the strength of investor pro-
tection compiled by the World Bank, previously in the
financial market development pillar, is now included in the
private institutions subpillar.
Within the infrastructure pillar (2nd), the indicators
have been reorganized into two relevant subpillars,
namely transport infrastructure and energy and telephony
infrastructure. The latter now includes mobile telephone
subscriptions. This variable is also part of the technological
readiness pillar and therefore receives half weight in each
pillar.
Within the health and primary education and the high-
er education and training pillars (4th and 5th), we have
dropped the variable on education expenditure as it is
no longer collected by UNESCO.
In the goods market efficiency pillar (6th), the variable
used as a proxy for the tax rate is now given full weight.
Previously, this variable was also included in the labor
market efficiency pillar and in each instance it was given
half weight.
The technological readiness pillar (9th) has been sepa-
rated into two relevant subpillars: technological adoption
and ICT use. The indicator on personal computers is no
longer included as the data are no longer collected by
the International Telecommunication Union. The densi-
ty of fixed telephone lines is included in the ICT use
category. Since it is also included in the infrastructure pil-
lar, each instance is given half weight. Finally, the vari-
able on the laws relating to ICT was dropped as it was
deemed too specific, given the general scope of the
Index. A new variable on Internet bandwidth, on the
other hand, has been included because of the rising
importance of this factor for competitiveness.
The Global Competitiveness Report 2010-2011 2010 World Economic Forum
5. Figure 5: Table showing the 5 stages of economic development and associated GDP per
capita. Courtesy world economic forum
There are five progressive stages in national economic development. They are the factor driven stage,
transition from factor to efficiency, the efficiency driven stage, another transition from the efficiency to
the innovation stage and finally the innovation driven stage.
6. Figure 6: Map of Africa showing GDP per capita in 2011(Courtesy IMF)
2.2.3. The verdict
According to the WEF data:
Four African Countries have reached stage two; namely Mauritius, Namibia, South Africa and Tunisia.
Seven Countries are in transition to stage two; namely Algeria, Angola, Botswana, Egypt, Libya,
Morocco and Swaziland. Apart from these 11 Countries listed above, the remaining 43 AFI members
are grappling with basic structures for economic growth in stage one.
Evidence suggests that, economic factors alone do not account for Africas high accident rate of 8.8
(accidents per million aircraft departures). Note that India is in stage one, yet its accident rate is 1.8.
Chinas rate is 0.2 but it is in the same stage two as Brazil, Argentina, Panama, Mexico and most
South American Countries. Yet, South Americas accident rate of 2.5 is ten times that of China.
Africas higher than average accident rate is not a direct result of its economic condition, but more
predominantly by social environmental conditioning.
20
20
Cliff Edwards and Jari Nisula;Active safety management (May 2009) City University London.
Chapter 3
3. A Political, Economic, Social, Technological and Environmental (PESTE)
analysis of the African aviation industry
This section will be devoted to a discourse on some of the political, socio-economic and
environmental factors that have the tendency to affect aviation safety levels in the region.
3.1. PESTE: Political factors
3.1.1. Influence of governments and public opinion
Post-liberalisation and deregulation notwithstanding, observers still notice some level of government
influence in shaping and supporting their economic interests. This usually coincides with the cyclic
downturn experienced by the industry, but there is no doubt it distorts the markets. Much interest
revolves around the United States of America (USA) and the EU; however, traffic forecast shows
China, India and South America are gaining strategic importance as potential markets. Activities in
these areas directly affect aviation in Africa when their policies lead to a distortion of free market
forces, as the subsequent discourse will show.
3.1.1.1. American government Policy
Effects can be said to be protectionist as seen in:
Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection; almost all American major airlines have received bankruptcy
protection at least once. Now American airlines the largest airline in 2008 has again filed for the
same protection.
The Fly America policy. This policy compels all beneficiaries of air travel paid for by the American
government, to use only its airlines with a few exceptions.
Cabotage restrictions and denial of fifth freedom rights.
Foreign Ownership restriction of 40% and voting rights of 25%.
Grants, aids and loan guarantees. USA gave $15B aid to its airlines in September 2001.
Research and development (R&D) funding to Boeing
It is considered a paradigm shift in principle that the US government allowed the merger of Delta
and Northwest, and recently Continental and United to continue.
3.1.1.2. Middle East renaissance: Emirates
Emirates established in 1985 is one of the youngest and now the strongest carrier in the Middle East.
Owned and funded by the government of Dubai and backed by a concerted marketing plan. With its
low cost business model, it is able to offer superior in-flight and ground facilities, free visas, and
sometimes free hotel accommodation for weekend stopovers in Dubai to passengers transiting to and
from the Far East. All these incentives are offered for the same price other competing airlines normally
charge for the flight ticket alone. The government of Dubai also plays an important role by enticing
investors with free land and a zero corporate tax policy to setup businesses in Dubai.
3.1.1.3. Far East synergies

Recent events show increased governments intervention in aviation matters. Argentina stepped in to
protect Aerolineas in 2009. China and Taiwan have set aside their age-old rivalry and liberalised their
aviation sectors in a bid to give their carriers a chance to favourably compete against the carriers from
other regions. Unable to raise funds from the capital market, Indian carriers received low interest loans
from the Indian government to the value of $1billion USD to settle urgent debts in 2009. Air India
completed its merger with Indian airlines on the 27th February 2011. While Jet Airways and Kingfisher
Airlines with a combined domestic market share of 52% (3Q 2010), have formed a wide-ranging
alliance to mitigate damaging losses. Notwithstanding, both carriers are facing cash flow problems in
early 2012.
21
3.1.1.4. African governments in the Airline business
Most African carriers that have featured among the global top 200 revenue earners are largely
government owned. An indication that, the private sector is not fully developed to compete against
the machinery of developed nations.
A brief look at the structure of these airlines shows that:

South African Airways (SAA) is 95% government owned. It was founded on the 1st February 1934
when the South African government accomplished the takeover of Union Airways. The airline
proved to be of strategic importance as it was commandeered for military purposes during the
Second World War. In April 1945, the airline became one of the founding members of the
International Air Transport Association (IATA). South African Airways has received over $3 billion
USD from its government between 2004 and 2008.
Royal Air Maroc (95.39% government owned) was established as Compagnie Cherifienne de
Transports on the 8th of June 1953 and started operations on the 28th June 1957.
Egypt Air is 100% government owned and established on the 7th May 1932. It began operations in
July 1933. It was initially, setup as Misr Airwork on the 31st December 1931.
Ethiopian (100% government owned) was established 26th December 1945 and resumed
operations on the 8th April 1946.
21
Jet Airways and kingfisher Staff salaries not paid for two months
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-02-14/news/31059164_1_kingfisher-pilots-kingfisher-
airlines-jet-airways
Tunisair (74.42% government owned), was established and started operations on the 21st October
1948.
Air Algerie (100% government owned) was established on the 23rd May 1953.
Kenya Airways is 26% owned by KLM and 22% by the Kenyan government. It was established as
the national flag carrier following the 1977 break-up of the East African Community (EAC) that
comprised of Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda and the subsequent disbanding of the East African
Airways Corporation (EAAC).
22
Other governments have not been successful in the prestigious national carrier experiment. Initially, it
went well until the advent of commercialisation and privatisation. The principle makes business sense
but the strategic nature of aviation business requires a delicate balancing of commercial objectives
and social obligations. Notable among them are Nigeria Airways, Ghana Airways and Air Afrique.
These failures were mainly due to internal factors such as undue government interference in
management activities, financial recklessness, and managerial instability resulting in lack of continuity
in policy implementation. They became unsustainable due to gross inefficiencies and lack of
accountability.
3.1.2. Political initiatives in home markets
Much legislation is lacking either strategic purpose or proper implementation.
The Abuja treaty designed to support the full implementation of Yamoussoukro Decision (YD) is being
relegated by member States. Contrary to initiatives like the New Partnership for Africa's Development
(NEPAD) that are designed to strengthen regional cooperation, there are numerous instances where
African carriers prefer to work with foreign carriers.
The case of setting up a replacement for the liquidated Nigeria Airways resulted in a fiasco when the
Nigerian authorities failed to carry out due diligence before offering South African Airways the role of
technical partner and core investor in the project for 30% equity. These and other lapses were then
uncovered by the Nigeria Aviation Safety Initiative (NASI) to the utter embarrassment of the
government.
22
Airline Historical data culled from Air transport intelligence. www.rati.com
To make matters worse, instead of redressing the situation, the Nigerian government brushed aside
their fellow NEPAD
23
member and made a deal with Virgin Atlantic for 49% equity.
24
3.1.3. International Multilateral agreements and conventions
By 1985, 80% of SSA Countries were under autocratic regimes. The 2009 World Bank data indicates
that over 50% are now considered truly democratic. Showing a 12.5% conversion to democratic
principles per decade. The new democrats composed of some mutated military rulers. This is slow,
but progress in the right direction, nonetheless.
All African Countries are members of ICAO and signatories to most of its multilateral agreements,
conventions and protocols. There are issues over the ratification and implementation of a few
conventions and treaties; such as the Cape Town convention of 2001 relating to the International
interests in Mobile equipment.
25
This is set to be of immense benefit to the African carriers who face
cash problems in securing newer aircraft and discriminatory insurance premiums.
3.1.4. Regulatory bodies and processes
Regulatory bodies have previously been prone to government interference. This has been rectified as
all regulators now have autonomous status. However, the level of autonomy is still being tested as
there are still issues concerning government owned airlines being favoured in policy matters.
Most regulatory authorities suffer from shortage of skilled personnel mainly due to modest conditions
of service that are not competitive enough to attract and retain such skills.
26

There are serious instances of poor economic regulation of airlines by some CAA's. This problem
becomes obvious when the airlines start to owe staff salaries and are unable to fund their daily
operational cost items such as fuel, overnight subsistence expenses for crew, landing, parking and
navigation charges.
23 The New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD) is a programme of the African Union (AU) adopted in
Lusaka, Zambia in 2001. NEPAD is a radically new intervention, spearheaded by African leaders to pursue new
priorities and approaches to the political and socio-economic transformation of Africa.
24 John Nwokocha and Kenneth Ehigiator, The Sunday periscope: who owns Virgin Nigeria? Sunday, January
9th 2005. Vangaurd Newspapers http://allafrica.com/stories/200501100287.html
25 Current list of ICAO multi-lateral treaties and conventions http://www2.icao.int/en/leb/Lists/Current%20lists
%20of%20parties/AllItems.aspx
26
Rexter Ndhlovu and Andy, (Gaborone, Botswana, March 2009) Ricover, Assessment of Potential Impact of
Implementation of the Yamoussoukro Decision on Open Skies Policy in the SADC Region
Reports have been made of aircrew being forced by commercial pressure to pay bribes to regulatory
and airport staff in some African Countries
27
. This atmosphere of insecurity and uncertainty causes
undue stress for the crew that translates into degraded levels of safety.
3.1.5. Trading policies and labour laws
After independence, most African Countries initiated trading policies based on political and social
affiliations. For example, those colonised by France found it easier to trade together even though their
geographical locations were sometimes interspersed by former British colonies, e.g. Cameroun and
Benin. Hence the formation of Air Afrique, ASECNA, etc. Other Countries found it natural to
organically structure the regional integration along geographical and social expediencies. A number of
economic, free trade and monetary areas have emerged along these lines e.g. SADC, MENA,
COMESA, EAC, etc.
However, this development is not homogenous as the degree of industry growth varies across the
region. There are instances where National labour laws do not provide adequate safety nets to
prevent unethical and unfair practices against employees of safety critical organisations such as
aviation. Sometimes where these laws exist, the employers flout them with impunity.
Most employment contract make no provision for loss of license insurance, medical cover, pension,
union representation and unbiased conflict resolution processes. A scenario where there is no
employee engagement and group synergy provides the perfect environment for the emergence of
latent pathogens that threaten safety.
3.1.6. Regional aviation pressure groups
The continent has witnessed increased activity of international NGOs, safety advocacy, professional
associations and pressure groups. Most of these groups are self-funded. Groups like IFALPA, IFATCA
and EI have been working with IATA and ICAO but their involvement in national issues is negligible.
Official government reaction is to ignore most of the advice being proffered by the safety advocacy
groups until something goes wrong.
27
CAA staff demand bribes in Kinshasa http://www.pprune.org/african-aviation/276492-drc-caa-bribes.html
Some of the groups are perceived as being too critical of failings within the industry
28
. Some
operational safety issues reported include:
Engineers are cajoled into signing certificates of release to service when the aircraft obviously
unserviceable.
Pilots being reprimanded, fined or sacked for:

Executing a go-around from an unstable approach.
Writing serious defects in the aircraft technical log.
Refusing to fly an unserviceable aircraft.
Insisting on taking the legal amount of fuel for flight.
A few of the vocal groups in Nigeria are the Nigeria aviation safety initiative (NASI) founded by an
energetic former journalist and Pilot (Capt. Jerry Agbeyegbe) who was unfortunately killed in
mysterious circumstances that point to police complicity.
29
Other pressure groups include National
Association of Airline Pilots and Engineers (NAAPE) and the Aviation Round Table (ART).
3.1.7. Terrorism
Civil aviation 'air piracy' dates back to May 1930, when Peruvian revolutionaries hijacked a Fokker
F-7 in South America. The aircraft was eventually used for distributing their ideological leaflets over
Lima
30
. Since September 11th 2001, the global community was presented with a new kind of threat.
One in which the aircraft itself was used as the weapon with devastating consequences. The
ramifications changed the total security framework for aviation worldwide due to the high profile
nature of the industry. This has resulted in significant cost to airlines that have had to implement extra
security procedures to mitigate the risks.
In the aftermath, there were demonstrations of support to the bombings in the Northern City of Kano,
Nigeria. This was a worrying development because the Nigerian government officially condemned the
bombing and the demonstrations.
28 A synopsis of the Nigerian aviation industry in 2004 by the Nigeria aviation safety initiative NASI. http://
www.nigeriaaviationsafety.org/DRIFTING_IN_TURBULENT_WATERS.html
http://www.scribd.com/doc/24010869/NIGERIA-AVIATION-INDUSTRY-DRIFTING-IN-TURBULENT-WATERS
29 http://allafrica.com/stories/200410260875.html
30
Wells, T A, Rodrigues, C C (2003), Commercial aviation safety, 4th edition. McGraw-Hill page 297.
A rising number of African Countries are having increasing problems with clandestine terrorist groups.
It is not clear as to the source and scope of the problem but most of the groups are reportedly linked
to Al-Qaeda.
In North Africa, an extremist group known as Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) with presence
in Algeria, Mali, Niger and Mauritania has been a source of trepidation.
Sudan was accused of harbouring a clandestine extremist group in the aftermath of the failed attempt
by the Egyptian Islamic Group to assassinate Hosni Mubarak in June 1995. Other groups known to
have a presence in the Sudan include Hamas, Hezbollah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Abu-Nidal.
Somalia has also featured prominently as a nesting ground for terror groups like Al-Ittihad, Al-Islamiya,
Al-Islah and Al-Tabligh. Al-Ittihad has been known to launch attacks at the Ethiopian government from
Somalia.
In Nigeria, religious tension has been brewing since 12 northern states in the country declared sharia
law within their jurisdiction in 2000. The attendant violence has resulted in over 20,000 casualties. A
few years ago, a militant group called the Movement for the Emancipation of Niger Delta (MEND)
gained notoriety by a series of kidnappings and skirmishes against the Nigerian military.
The group claims its activities are aimed at seeking justice and equity for the people of Nigerias oil
producing Niger Delta. It has suspended its militant activities after reaching an agreement with the
Nigerian government in 2009.
Activities of another Islamic extremist group identified as Boko-Haram has led to heightened religious
tension and degraded levels of safety in the Northern part of the country.
Last year, their activities included bombing of the UN office on the 26
th
August 2011, in Nigerias
capital city Abuja. This event left 24 people dead and over 115 injured. The group carried out some
attacks on 25
th
December 2011 as well as bombings of State security installations in Kano on the 20
th

January 2012.
3.1.8. Wars and conflicts
3.1.8.1. Pre-independence Colonial world wars
Conflicts have always featured in African history. These are usually limited in scope to local rivals and
limited in context to squabbles over land boundaries. The primary reason is that land holds the key to
food sources and shelter. The Zulu wars illustrate the point quite clearly.
According to Muriel (1974) after the Berlin meeting of 1884
31
, Africa has found itself involuntarily
drawn into various conflicts of continental and global proportions. Africa was dragged in to the two
world wars simply because it was colonised by the major warring factions; Germany, France, Italy and
Britain.
7. Figure 7: Map showing 1914 Colonies in Africa (Courtesy Google).
3.1.8.2. Post-independence Cold war
31
Chamberlain, Muriel E. (1999). The Scramble for Africa. London: Longman, 1974, 2nd edition ISBN
0582368812.
Even after independence, Africa was exposed to subterfuge because of its affiliations with its former
colonial masters. At the height of the cold war, Africa was rife with covert activity due to the diverging
economic and social ideologies between Capitalism and Communism.
The major players were America and the Soviet Union. It has been argued that along with the internal
factors responsible for regional conflict, most changes of governments in Africa were encouraged by
some external economic or political interest. The involvement of America
32
and the Belgian
government in overthrow and execution of Patrice Lumumba in the Congo 1961
33
as well as the
coup de tat against Kwame Nkrumah in Ghana 1966
34
were both facilitated by the CIA to stem the
spread of the communist agenda in West Africa. The Nigerian civil war had the control of the oil-rich
Niger delta as a possible underlying cause. The conflicts in Sierra Leone, Rwanda and the Congo
were incentivised by the scramble to control the mineral resources within the area. Africa does not
manufacture arms, yet it has been embroiled in a series of armed conflicts for decades. The
complicity of Countries that manufacture and deal in arms is hinted in this quote from the managing
director of the IMF, Michel Camdessus during a French radio interview on the 2nd January 2000.
35
The problem of all the ethnic and tribal wars must be either resolved or at least largely reduced
through a big effort by the Countries that deal in arms to prevent the over-militarisation of Africa."
However, irrespective of these external influences, the post-colonial conflicts experienced in the region
could not have occurred without the active involvement of the African leadership and population.
One of the major reasons for the continents indebtedness is the propensity for their Governments to
procure arms during these conflicts at unrealistic conditions. Resulting in debt servicing rates of up to
25% per annum. According to the World Policy Institute, between 1989 and 1998 the US government
alone sold arms worth $111,687,000 USD to 9 African countries involved in the Congo war
36
.
According to the World Bank, for every US1$ Africa receives in aid, it pays $25 USD for debt
servicing alone.
These conflicts have exacerbated the safety question in the region as most aviation infrastructure like
remote radio transmitters, navigation aids, runways surfaces, etc., are destroyed.
32
Kalb, Madeleine, 1982. The Congo cables: The cold war in Africa from Eisenhower to Kennedy
33 New data on the Murder of Patrice Lumumba
http://www.africawithin.com/lumumba/murder_of_lumumba.htm
34
Birmingham, David. Kwame Nkrumah: The Father of African Nationalism (Revised Edition). Ohio University
Press. 1998.
35
African conflicts and the arms trade http://www.worldpolicy.org/projects/arms/reports/congo.htm
36
William D. Hartung and Bridget Moix Report: U.S. Arms to Africa and the Congo War - World Policy Institute -
Research Project ARMS TRADE RESOURCE CENTER
Absence of effective civil radar coverage makes it difficult to prevent illegal flight operations like rogue
arms-trade flights, covert mercenary movements and smugglers of undeclared precious cargo,
diamonds, drugs, etc. In 2004 a government survey discovered over 70 illegal aerodromes, airstrips
and helipads in Nigeria alone.
37
3.2. PESTE economic factors
3.2.1. Vilfredo Paretos 20/80 rule
Resource distribution in the region appears to follow Vilfredo Paretos (1897) 20/80 rule. More than
80% of the continents resources are in the hands of 20% of the populace, just as Pareto observed
with Italys land distribution. A similar condition existed in Zimbabwe (Rhodesia) under Ian Smith and in
South Africa under apartheid.
Interestingly, it still exists even in Zimbabwe under Mugabe and in South Africa post-apartheid. The
governments may have changed but the principle remains valid.
Paretos law does not fully explain whether this is a natural order of society, or the product of a re-
occurring social imbalance that corrupts the equitable distribution of wealth.
3.2.2. Capital flight
The anomaly with Africa is that most of the 80% of the wealth, that has been accumulated by the
20% of its people is not invested in the African economy. It is lodged foreign banks and invested in
developed Countries, thereby reducing Africas productive capacity. It may be a hypothesis for now,
but the author believes that 80% of the top earners in Africa invest 80% of their capital where it is
considered secure with modest returns. The remaining 20% is invested in fast growing African
economies that are considered high risk but with chances of up to 60% net margins return on
investment (ROI) per year. The gross earnings could be up to 185% of capital but inflation in many
SSA Countries averages 15%. This lack of local confidence in the African economy serves to
discourage genuine foreign investors in aviation infrastructure.
3.2.3. Regional economic trends
37
http://www.nigeriaaviationsafety.org/DRIFTING_IN_TURBULENT_WATERS.html
Economic trends project an average GDP growth of 5% over the next 4 years. This is very good
considering the predicted global GDP growth of 3%. Oil rich Nigerias population of over 154 million
(18% of Africas total population
38
) presents a huge market for aviation. However, considering the level
of poverty and deprivation in most SSA the impact of this growth rate will be minimal. South Africa;
Africas largest economy is set to maintain GDP growth of at least 4% for the next 2 years.
However, this is marred by the fact that its unemployment rate is currently 25%.
39
A United kingdom
trade delegation visited Nigeria in mid July 2011and this is what the British prime minister had to say:

Tell me this: which part of the world has seen its number of democracies increase nearly eight-
fold in just two decades? Eastern Europe? No, it is Africa.
Which continent has six of the ten fastest growing economies in the world?
Asia? No, it is Africa. Which country is predicted by some to have the highest average GDP
growth in the world over the next 40 years? You might think Brazil, Russia, India or China. No.
Think Africa. Think Nigeria. The point I want to make today, is this: This can be Africas
moment.
-David Cameron (British Prime minister), Lagos 19th July 2011.
40
There are arguments whether this is fact, fallacy or flattery. Other opinions assert it is diplomatic
brinksmanship at either its finest or lowest level as the complete speech is riddled with conditions.
Contrary to the optimism these economic indicators try to convey, the numbers of people living below
poverty in Africa has increased due to uneven distribution of wealth. The current troubles in the Euro
zone is expected to reduce Africas export earnings to Europe. This will negatively impact the
expected growth of aviation because it will reduce the earning power of a segment of the society.
Africas Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPK) is set to more than double in the next 20 years from
250 billion RPK to 720 billion RPK in 2030. Traffic between Africa and the EU has consistently
accounted for over 60% of all aviation activity on the African continent. The Africa-Asia route is
showing the highest growth rate due to increased activity of Middle East and Chinese carriers.
3.2.4. External economic trends leading to increased competition
38World Bank fact file; 50 things you did not know about Africa.
http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/AFRICAEXT/0,,contentMDK:
20563739~menuPK:1613741~pagePK:146736~piPK:146830~theSitePK:258644,00.html
39 South Africa economic outlook from NASDAQ
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?
storyid=201108250944dowjonesdjonline000492&title=imf-raises-south-africa-gdp-forecast-to-4-in-11
40 Prime Minister David Camerons speech on aid, trade and democracy in Lagos, Nigeria Tuesday 19th July
2011. http://www.number10.gov.uk/news/pms-speech-on-aid-trade-and-democracy/
The global economy is experiencing limited growth and the European and America economies are
bracing for the possibility of a double dip recession. As a result, airlines from these regions are
targeting Africas predicted 6.5% traffic growth
41
as a means of mitigating losses or even remaining
profitable. American airlines has just gone into bankruptcy protection and carriers like tour operator
Thomas cook are making strategic cutbacks including redundancies to stem possible losses. This
means increased competition for African carriers.
Over 110 African airlines are now facing increased competition in their home territory as well as being
blacklisted from the European market. The continent is witnessing increased industry activity, yet
African airlines are facing a serious threat of extinction.
3.2.5. Open Skies and Yamoussoukro Decision (YD)
42
The YD aims to remove all restrictions on traffic rights including the fifth freedom as well as capacity
and frequency between city pairs. This will provide for non-regulation of tariffs by government, multiple
designation and complete liberalisation of cargo and non-scheduled air services.
Many African Countries have signed open skies agreements without carefully considering the far-
reaching consequences for the indigenous industry. When the competition finally takes full advantage
of the open skies agreement, the only African airlines that will survive are members of IATA's three
Alliances. There will be increased industry activity, but it will not result in transfer of skills or increase
GDP of the continent.
The short-term result is capital flight on a colossal scale.
The medium-term result is the extinction of indigenous African carriers.
In the long-term, African governments will lose strategic control of their aviation sectors.
Africa's participation in aviation will only serve as a market for foreign carriers.
These negative effects will be averted if YD is quickly and fully implemented.
3.2.6. Unjustifiably high Taxes
41 IATA conference, Johannesburg. 5th May 2011.
http://www.iata.org/pressroom/speeches/pages/2011-05-05-02.aspx.
42
Yamoussoukro Decision; United Nations Economic Commission for Africa.http://www.uneca.org/itca/
yamoussoukro/
The industry has been under considerable pressure on from what the African Airlines Association
(AFRAA) terms unjustifiably high taxes and charges levied by regulatory authorities and monopoly
service providers
43
.
The tax on aviation consumables, especially fuel which accounts for nearly 30% of direct operating
cost to airlines is an issue that is generating much debate. It is expected that African nations will
follow the example of the UK which had virtually removed any tax on aviation fuel (jet A1) sold at its
airports in other to remain competitive. As a result, although Nigeria is major petroleum exporter,
aviation fuel is cheaper to procure at Heathrow airport than at Lagos.
3.2.7. About Foreign Aid or bait
The issue of external aid to Africa has been of great discourse since the early years of independence.
The argument is that aid becomes logical and necessary during humanitarian crisis resulting from
regional conflicts. These conflicts have been present for a better part of the last 50 years. Records
indicate that only about 40% of the aid arrives in Africa. Nearly 60% is used to pay consultants based
in the donor Countries and logistics for airlifting the aid (by the donor Countries), which is technically
export of unwanted products or services from the same donor Countries. However, a system of aid
dependency does not allow African economies to grow organically and adapt to real market
conditions.
The Structural Adjustment Programmes (SAP) recommended by the IMF and World Bank to
developing Countries involves removal of subsidies and devaluing the local currency to discourage
imports and kick start the local economies. Most aid is presented as finished goods and services but
what Africa needs is to strengthen its production and manufacturing base. Oil producing countries like
Nigeria still import Jet A1. Africa does not manufacture any aircraft components so this invariably
increases the cost of procuring maintenance contracts and components that are always denominated
in international currency. The real aid Africa needs is the transfer of skills and technology, including
setting up world-class aviation training, manufacturing and Maintenance Repairs and Overhaul (MRO)
facilities.
3.3. PESTE: Social
3.3.1. Demographics
43 AFRAA aero political committee
http://www.afraa.org/index.php/our-work/task-forces/aero-political-task-force
Africa has a large population (1.1 billion), which should translate into a substantial market for aviation.
The population growth rate is still higher than Europe and America despite the high infant mortality,
low life expectancy and the failings in primary health care system.
The major threat is the spread of aids and other infectious diseases that might devastate the strength
of the active workforce. According to Population Reference Bureau, an American non-profit
organisation based in Washington, only 30% of SSA youth graduate high school.
44
The current
average life expectancy at birth in the region is 52.5 years.
45
These two key indicators will adversely
affect the ability of the region to meet its labour force needs.
The continent has complex demographics that provide a great diversity of culture, traditions, customs
and religions. These various cultural and religious festivals various have the potential to create
increased traffic for airlines.
Consumer attitudes are such that the very affluent are prone to flaunt it. Leading to an increase in
ownership of private aeroplanes. This is good for the industry in generating employment for
professionals as well as improved business interaction.
3.3.2. A culture corrupted or a culture of corruption
National or regional culture is expected to represent the shared components of heritage, including
behavioural norms, attitudes, and values. A school of thought argues that although national culture is
resistant to change (Hofstede, 1980)
46
, it no longer exists in its intrinsic form because it is being
constantly modified largely by globalisation, technical migration and social integration. These factors
and variations lead to the emergence of professional and organisational cultures. It is also argued
by anthropologists that culture is dynamic and can vary according to political and social exigencies.
There are a various dimensions to the national cultures prevailing in Africa.
44
Population Reference Bureau, an American non-profit organisation based in Washington. http://
www.africanews.com/site/Africas_population_now_1_billion/list_messages/26588
45
The World Bank, World Development Indicators & Global Development Finance Catalog (April 2011 edition);
national sources
46
Hofstede, G. (1980). Cultures consequences: International differences in work-related values. Beverly Hills:
Sage
However, this discourse will be restricted to those considered pertinent to aviation safety namely;
individualism versus collectivism, power-distance, long-term orientation, masculinity and uncertainty
avoidance (Helmreich & Merritt, 1998)
47
.
Generally, African cultural and societal values tend towards collectivism with strong loyal bonds to the
family and or ethnic group unlike individualism, which is prevalent in Europe.The second tendency
among Africans is a high-power distance culture where it is considered out of place to challenge
superiors, elders or the wealthy even when they are clearly wrong.
The resulting impunity leads to a false sense of invincibility and discourages the emergence of a safety
reporting culture within industry practitioners
48
. This unfortunate trait runs through most of the polity
and breeds airline entrepreneurs and managers with despotic tendencies who crave power with
complete disregard for both safety regulations and the rule of law. The author recalls instances when
airworthiness inspectors were ordered by the CAA boss to declare unsafe aircrafts as being
serviceable. The airline owner had been incensed that some of his aircraft failed a series of ramp
inspections and got the minister of aviation to instruct the CAA boss that the aircraft must be released
for flight within 24hours. This comes as no surprise as most of the States that failed the audit
(mentioned in 1.1.1) were found to have issued Air Operators Certificates (AOC) to unqualified entities.
Numerous cases have involved multinational corporations in the aviation business like BAE systems.
49
3.3.2.1. Prebendalism
The word Prebendalism was first coined by Richard Joseph (1983) to describe the corrupt system
of patrimonial dependency practiced in some African States. The term prebend has its roots in
practices of the Christian church in the late 11th century. A version of the system called indirect rule
was adopted by the British colonists to interact with their colonies. Indirect rule was based on the
principle of the ends justifies the means rather than personal merit.
The British used the existing traditional institutions in Africa to create a stable quasi-autocratic system
where they arbitrarily selected suitable candidates, bestowed them with the powers of intermediaries
and imposed these candidates on the rest of the local population. The major criteria for the role were:
47
Helmreich, R.L., & Merritt, A.C. (1998). Culture at work in aviation and medicine: National, organisational, and
professional influences. Aldershot, U.K.: Ashgate.
48
Hopkins, Andrew., Studying Organisational Cultures and their Effects on Safety. International Conference on
Occupational Risk Prevention Seville, May 2006.
49
BAE fined over $400m for bribery Saudi arms deal 1985 and Tanzania radar deal (1999)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8501655.stm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12036628
The ability to communicate to both the locals and the colonists.
The ability to exert some level of control on the local population.
Unflinching loyalty to the supervisory authority.
In its post-independence form, prebendalism had evolved into a patron-client relationship. The patron
facilitates the client into public office and the client serves the patron by using the acquired office to
divert public resources to enrich the patron and of course the client.
This has produced high ranking public officers and leading politicians who are acting as proxies for
the rich patrons that installed them in public office.
50
The patrons had acquired some much wealth
and power that they can even effect a change in government if their interests are not protected by
their stooges in power.
Widespread corruption has been blamed for most of the troubles in Africa.
51
Transparency
international Corruption Perception Index (CPI) listed 182 Countries in its latest report. Nine African
Countries featured in the last 20 on the list. The lack of effective checks and balances between the
legislative and executive arms of government further compound the problem caused by of a weak
justice system. It is rather intriguing that Africa is infamous for widespread corruption and yet, the
proceeds end up stashed away in secure banks in reputable developed Countries.
52
Why should it be
difficult to repatriate that money and invest in the African economy?
3.3.3. Mobility of Human resource
50
Lewis, P., (1996)From Prebendalism to Predation: The Political Economy of Decline in Nigeria, Journal of
Modern African Studies, Vol. 34, No. 1, 1996, pp. 79-103.
51
Sebastian Hancock,Transparency as Cure for the Resource Curse? A Nigerian Case Study.School of Social
and Political Sciences The University of Melbourne.
52
Mala Mustafa (2010),Corruption in Nigeria: conceptual & empirical notes. Information, Society and Justice,
Volume 3 No. 2, July 2010: pp 165-175 ISSN 1756-1078
The idea of human resource mobility is usually associated with brain drain or the loss of required
human resource by the home country. However, this view can be normative because it can also result
in brain gain, brain drain even brain or circulation (Awumbila et al. 2009)
53
. A survey of migration
trends conducted in 1995 showed that some of the return emigrants had acquired higher education
and extensive skills whilst abroad.
Their return to Ghana became a gain in human capital to the country. The concept is viewed as being
dynamic and subject to variation by both technology and globalisation.
Using current technology, a person can physically attend meetings on three different continents within
a space of 24 hours. Alternatively, the person could hold one meeting with team members on three
different continents simultaneously. Therefore, African professionals in the Diaspora can still contribute
directly to the socio-economic and political development of the continent by harnessing the power of
technology.
3.3.4. The push pull factors: Poor psychological contract.
Though written with organisations and corporations in mind, this also applies to the wider scope of
governance. There are a series of unwritten mutual expectations that people expect from their
leadership and vice versa. These can be related to the work of organisational and behavioural
theorists Chris Argyris and Edgar Schein in what is widely known as the Psychological
Contract (Argyris, 1960)
54
. Historically, the idea is also viewed as an extension of philosophical ideas
of the social contract theory (Schein, 1980
55
and Roehling, 1997
56
).
This is usually viewed from the expectations of the people rather than the leadership. However, a
balanced approach will require that it is viewed from both perspectives. The iceberg model which
postulates that an iceberg is usually 90% hidden under the water is used to illustrates how simplistic
and unrealistic for an employer or government to assume that a good salary is all that is needed to
keep the employees satisfied.
African airlines are facing declining numbers of experienced professionals as a result of what AFRAA
calls poaching by foreign carriers.
53
Awumbila, M., Manuh, T., Quartey, P., Tagoe, C. A. and Bosiakoh, T. A. (2009) Ghana Migration Country
Paper: Trends, Issues, and Emerging Research Gaps, Legon, Ghana: Centre for Migration Studies, University of
Ghana.
54
Argyris, C. (1960), Understanding organisational behaviour. Homewood, Illinois: Dorsey Press
55
Schein, E. H. (1965, Reprinted 1980). Organisational psychology. New Jersey: Englewood Cliffs.
56
Roehling, M. V. (1997). The origins and early development of the psychological contract construct. Journal of
Management History, 3(2), 204-217.
Similar concerns were stated at the AFI Comprehensive Implementation Programme (ACIP) steering
committee meeting held in Montreal 13th October 2009.
57
The remuneration (pay) is only a tip of the
iceberg when it comes to expectation. Principal among these latent expectations are security and
safety, training and development, recognition for the work and efforts invested.
Others, are adequate workspace and equipment, chances for promotion and growth.
Ability to achieve higher responsibility, life or work balance, flexibility and tolerance and finally a feeling
of being part of the ownership of the organisation or country.
Most of these are features that are difficult to attain considering the high failure rates and short life
expectancy of African airlines. This may account for the underlying reasons why skilled aviation
professionals choose to join foreign airlines or emigrate from Africa.
8. Figure 8: The Psychological contract: Courtesy Business ball.com
Open and frank communication results in a clearly understood, written and enforceable
(legislated) document detailing the responsibilities and expectations of the people and their
governments. This is close to the ideal situation when the iceberg is clearly above the water.
3.3.5. Creating and maintaining a highly skilled workforce
57
AFI comprehensive implementation plan 13th October 2009, fourth steering committee meeting
According to the World Bank
58
tertiary enrolment for developing Countries stands at 10% of the
population, and 56% for Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
Countries. It is evident the AFI region will find it a Herculean task to produce the number of
development professionals needed to sustain economic growth in the aviation sector without a
serious change in educational and labour policies.
There is no way developing Countries can successfully address the question of brain drain and gain
without considering the whole question of imbalances created by colonial domination and despotic
leadership over the years. Former colonies are by default the losers in this scenario because ties with
developed former colonist encourage the emigration of their highly skilled personnel. These personnel
are products of decades of training at huge financial cost that are vital for the economic
transformation of their home Countries.
For example, there are more Nigerian engineers in the United States than there are in the whole of
Africa.
59

The process of underdevelopment is not coincidental or accidental but rather a deliberate strategy to
maintain economic and political competitive advantage. Of course, the world has moved on in areas
of human rights, so colonisation is no longer an accepted form of business. Nations have to do
everything to attract and maintain skills required to sustain development. However, the unsuitable
conditions in SSA encourage the exodus of skilled aviation professionals.
60
3.3.6. Policies on women participation
Government polices appear to be robust on paper but implementations are at best poorly
carried out. There has been success in some unexpected places. For instance, womens
involvement in governance and public life has increased in many Countries.
The current parliament in Rwanda is composed of more women than men.
61
This should lead to
increased public engagement with government initiatives. There has also been a significant
increase of women participation in aviation over the past decade.
58
World Development Indicators.(2005) Washington, DC: World Bank.
59
World economic forum for Africa, (2010) redesigning Africas growth strategy. Dar-Esc Salam, Tanzania
5th-7th May 2010
60
The Task Force on Higher Education and Society (TFHE) (2000):Higher Education in DevelopingCountries:
Peril and Promise, World Bank, Washington, DC.
61 World bank Africa reports. http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/AFRICAEXT/
EXTPUBREP/EXTSTATINAFR/0,,contentMDK:22499827~pagePK:64168445~piPK:64168309~theSitePK:
824043,00.html
3.4. PESTE: Technology
3.4.1. Behind the times
Africa is not usually one of the early adopters of aviation technology due to lack of access and
procurement cost. The advantage is that when it eventually gets to Africa, it would have been
tried, tested and refined. The disadvantage is, Africa will be used as a dumping ground for
obsolete technology. This can also negatively affect its fragile ecosystem. A sensible balance
needs to be found between being an early adopter and a complete laggard.
3.4.2. Infrastructure: Airports safety and security
Airport and ramp safety: This will be an issue of increasing concern to the region because of the
level of investment in equipment and maintenance needed to keep these movement areas in
the required condition. A flight safety foundation study revealed that the injury rate to employees
of scheduled airlines is 3.5 times that suffered by miners.
62
Data from Eurocontrol showed that
the EU experienced more than 600 runways incursions in 2005 alone. This showed an average
of more than two incursions every day and one serious incursion every 14 days
63
. Though
African airports do not experience the traffic volume found in European airports the situation is
about to change. Africas current fleet size of 680 commercial aircraft is predicted to reach
1,210 aircraft by 2030.
Furthermore, the reporting culture is not fully developed and so it is assumed that many runway
incursions and ramp injuries to personnel go unreported or investigated (Heinrich,1931)
64
. It will
be fair to assume that for every fatal event, there would have been 10 serious accidents, 30
other non-serious accidents and 600 incidents that were probably not reported in accordance
with Heinrichs principle.
62 Flight international magazine, (2005)19th July, page 36.
63
Pam, D.R., (9
th
January 2009), Air accident investigation course work. Air safety management,City University.
London.
64
Heinrich HW (1931). Industrial accident prevention: a scientific approach. McGraw-Hill
9. Figure 9: Pyramid showing Frank E. Birds adaptation of Heinrichs ratio to aviation accidents.
It took an ICAO mandate to secure airports perimetre fencing in most of the international
airports in the African region. An illustrative case is the Air France A330 accident in Port
Harcourt airport (Nigeria) on the 6th July 2004, where ATC cleared the aircraft to land while a
herd of cattle had occupied the active runway. A number of the domestic airports remained
prone to wild life incursions.
3.4.3. A sky-full of new planes
According to Boeing, the current in-service 19,400 commercial aircraft will be joined by a net
additional 20,100 by the year 2030, bringing the total in-service airplanes to a staggering
39,500
65
. In the same vein, Airports Council International (ACI) has predicted a global airport
capacity gap of at least 20% by 2025 even if all planned expansion programmes are completed.
Already, the African region is experiencing increased traffic from foreign carriers opening new
routes on the continent to improve their margins. This means a possibility of airspace
congestion, increased ramp activity and runways occupancy. It may also mean that the average
age of the African fleet will reduce. Either way, enhanced safety features will be required to
improve current safety levels.
3.5. PESTE: Ecological and environmental issues
Public opinion on environmental protection and global warming has led to aviation being
viewed as a reckless polluter.
Schemes like carbon offsetting and emission trading are beginning to negatively impact the
already small operating margins available. Planned infrastructure upgrades especially airports
expansion is now under threat. Fast land-based modes of transport as the magnetic levitation
trains are being touted as environmentally friendly alternatives to air travel.
Africa is not considered to be at serious risk of atmospheric degradation due to high levels of
Co2 pollution. However, trends indicate that it is probably because detail studies have not been
conducted to determine the impact of illegal and covert dumping of toxic wastes including
radioactive material that make their way into the region. Other factors include the importation of
old cars not equipped with catalytic converters, refrigerators containing CFC gases, batteries,
e.t.c. Without the necessary facilities to safely degrade them at the end of their useful life.
Others are class 2 noise airplanes that have been banned in developed Countries like the
unmodified JT8D-engined B737-200, BAC 1-11 and other similar aircraft.
A few factors pertinent to aviation would be:
Ozone concentrations.
Nitrogen dioxide concentrations.
Particulate matter concentrations.
65
Boeing current market outlook (2011-2030) page 9 http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/
fleet_developments.html
Volatile organic compound emissions.
Carbon monoxide emissions.
Black smoke emissions.
Lead emissions.
Expenditure on air pollution abatement.
Chapter 4
4. Activities of some key aviation organisations in the AFI region
A number of organisations have strong influence in shaping the air transport industry on global or
regional scales. However, only some of those considered essential to this paper will be discussed.
The reference point is their impact on regional aviation activities.
4.1. African Union (AU) and African Civil Aviation Commission (AFCAC)
AFCAC is the specialised Agency of the African Union responsible for Civil Aviation matters on the
continent. Empowered by a revised constitution that came into force on 13th May 2010. It is
expected to coordinate civil aviation matters in Africa and cooperate with ICAO and all other relevant
organisations and other bodies that are involved in the promotion and development of civil aviation. It
is rather surprising that it took the continent 41 years to put into practice what was agreed in 1969
66
,
i.e. the formation of a common African civil aviation policy.
AFCAC must be desperate to show both resolve and results considering that over 110 airlines from
10 of its member Countries were on the EU airlines blacklist (April 2011). Their liaison with ICAO must
be commended but it appears they are not getting the full attention of the African governments. As at
February 2010, only 7 member States had signed the African and Indian Ocean Cooperative
Inspectorate Scheme (AFI-CIS) Memoranda Of Understanding (MOU). Its strategic objectives for the
period 2011-2016 is to foster a safe, secure, efficient, cost effective, sustainable and environmentally
friendly civil aviation industry in Africa.
The expected outcome is the development of an integrated and sustainable air transport system.
It intends to foster the implementation of ICAO SARPs and development of harmonised rules and
regulations consistent with the best international practices in civil aviation.
66
First constitution signed on 17
th
January 1969. http://www.afcac.org/en/Forms/
Plenipotentiaries_Constitution_Dakar_Dec_2009_en.htm
Finally, it intends to facilitate, coordinate and ensure the successful implementation of the YD by
supervising and managing Africas liberalised air transport industry.
4.2. The International Air Transport Association (IATA)
The international air transport association is a successfully run non-governmental, profit-seeking
organisation. IATA initially incepted with 57 members in 1945, now has a membership of over 240
airlines across 115 Countries around the globe. Its members account for 84% of global aviation traffic
and corresponding earnings. IATA is one of the few organisations that can provide quantitative prove
that it pays to invest in safety. Its African membership is composed of only 30 airlines; 8 in the North
Africa and Middle East (MENA) group and 22 in the rest of the AFI region. It is worth noting that the
African continent seems to be stratified along various social and economic lines of interest. With the
bulk of North African Countries preferring to be associated with the Middle East rather than with the
rest of Africa. IATAs focus is the interest of its member airlines, travel and cargo agents.
It accomplishes this by effectively liaising with governments, their agencies, airports, etc. Although
IATA appears to generously donate and initiate projects that require extensive capital, it is still a profit-
oriented organisation funded by its member whose priority is profitability. This can sometimes become
apparent in its desire to fast-track initiatives that are immensely beneficial to its members. For
example, the AFI region was almost cajoled into a hasty implementation of RVSM before the
stipulated due diligence and system testing was completed. The target date of 20th January 2005
was plainly unachievable as majority of the end users of the airspace were not ready. With less than 6
months to the implementation date, evidence showed that the project performance was at least a
year behind schedule. ICAO was still waiting to receive current fleet data from airlines, to carry out a
cost benefit analysis, to be followed by 6 months of system testing and data analysis (Agbeyegbe and
Pam, NASI 2004)
67
. The good news is that the voice of reason prevailed.
African carriers operate 3% of the global western built aircraft but account for nearly 23% of their hull
losses. Evidence shows that 80% of the losses recorded in the AFI region were incurred by non-IATA
carriers. However, the safety record of the region adversely affects the reputation of all carriers in the
region including IATA members. A verdict of guilty by proximate association, which though unfair,
affect consumer preferences. That accounts for why the load factors and performance of foreign
carriers in the African aviation market seems to exceed those of their African counterparts.
67
Pam, D., Agbeyegbe, J. (2004), NASI, RVSM Are we on course? http://allafrica.com/stories/
200409100734.html
Some credit has to be given to IATA for initiating the Flight Data Management Programs (FDMP)
68
for
all their African partners through the Implementation Program for Safe Operations in Africa (IPSOA).
69

The programme that was launched in 2009 started with just five of their members, has grown so
popular that even non-IATA airlines have requested IATAs assistance in implementing the programme.
Other safety initiatives spear headed by IATA in the region include Prevention of runway excursions,
IATA Operational Safety Audit (IOSA), IATA Safety Audit for Ground Operations (ISAGO) and the
Global Safety Information Centre (GSIC).
However, in the same year according to Lance Brogden, (IATAs regional vice president, Africa)
Africas airlines are losing market share
70
; meaning the initiatives have not yielded the desired
outcomes for African carriers.
4.3. IATAs Operational Safety Audit (IOSA)
The IATA Operational Safety Audit (IOSA) program is an internationally recognised and accepted
evaluation system designed to assess the operational management and control systems of an airline.
IOSA's quality audit principles are designed to conduct audits in a standardised manner.
71
This audit has gained global acceptance from ICAO, EASA, FAA and all major aviation stakeholders. It
also provides a regular source of business for IATAs auditors and training institutions.
4.4. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and its International Aviation Safety
Assessment (IASA)
68
CAP 739, flight data monitoring.
http://www.caa.co.uk/application.aspx?catid=33&pagetype=65&appid=11&mode=detail&id=1002
69
http://www.iata.org/whatwedo/safety_security/newsletter/april-2009/pages/regional-updates.aspx
70
Brogden, Lance. Development trends in the airline industry, Windhoek Namibia 3rd March 2009.
71
http://www.iata.org/ps/certification/iosa/Pages/index.aspx
The United States FAA established the IASA program through public policy order in August of 1992.
This assessment program is directed at a countrys regulatory agency. It is used to evaluate the
country's ability to adhere to international standards and recommended practices for aircraft
operations and maintenance established by the United Nation's technical agency for aviation, the
ICAO.
72

The regulator is required to show that the country has:
Laws or regulations necessary to support the certification and oversight of air carriers according to
minimum international standards.
Technical expertise, resources, and organisation to license or oversee air carrier operations.
Adequately trained and qualified technical personnel.
Provided adequate inspector guidance to ensure enforcement of, and compliance with, minimum
international standards.
Sufficient documentation and records of certification and adequate continuing oversight and
surveillance of air carrier operations.
Countries that satisfy these criteria are given a category 1 certification. While those that are unable to
satisfy all the above criteria are certified as category 2 and are deemed to have failed to meet the
minimum safety oversight standards established by ICAO.
These category 2 Countries therefore, can only be allowed to start flight operations to the USA using
wet leased aircraft from a State that has already acquired a category 1 status. In the case of Countries
that already fly to the USA, they are restricted from varying their current operations specifications.
However, new flight operations services may be allowed using aircraft from a category 1 country.
4.5. ICAOs Universal Safety Operations Audit Programme (USOAP)
72
http://www.faa.gov/about/initiatives/iasa/
To give redirection to some States struggling with their oversight functions, ICAO established the
Universal Safety Oversight Audit Program (USOAP). This is designed to verify the competency of a
States regulator, through formal audits of its safety oversight arrangements and capabilities. With the
scope covering from regulations through to the procedures needed to implement the eight Critical
Elements (CEs) of a States safety oversight system as defined in ICAO Document 9734-A. These
elements are listed in order of priority as:
Primary aviation legislation and regulations.
Specific operating regulations.
State aviation system and safety oversight functions.
Qualified and experienced technical personnel and training.
Technical guidance materials and tools for the provision of safety critical information.
Licensing, certification, authorisation and approval obligations.
Surveillance obligations.
Procedures for the resolution of safety concerns.
It is expected that by 2010, USOAP would have been fully implemented in its basic function by all
contracting States. Thereafter it will serve to promote global aviation safety, by enhancing contracting
States safety oversight capabilities, through continuous monitoring of States safety performances.
This will help identify safety deficiencies, assess associated safety risks, implement strategies for their
mitigation and re-evaluate States safety oversight capabilities achieved.
73
4.6. African Airlines Association (AFRAA) and the balancing act
AFRAA was established as a trade organisation to protect the common interest of the newly
independent State owned airlines in April of 1968 in Accra, Ghana.
73
http://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/ICAO_Universal_Safety_Oversight_Audit_Programme
It naturally emerged as the frontline organisation for African airlines in the AFI region. It currently has
40 member airlines. The organisation became necessary after most African Countries secured their
independence and realised they needed to establish a working partnership with each other whilst
navigating the path to nation building. The vision and primary objectives of this association include the
desire to be the leader and catalyst for the growth of a globally competitive and integrated African
airline industry"
74
.
According to the AFRAA, their recent achievements include being in the forefront of major initiatives in
the air transport field in Africa. These initiatives are aimed at sensitising African airlines to take
concrete actions for co-operation in operational, commercial, technical, and training fields.
It has also been instrumental in sensitising African Governments through AFCAC and other regional
and sub-regional organisations on the actions to be taken for the development of an efficient air
transport system.
Although AFRAA has only 40 members it is has maintained its pivotal role as a catalyst for most
major policy decisions in the Continent.
To attain critical mass, AFRAA needs to encourage the remaining 100+ airlines in the region to join its
fold. Credit has to be given for the effort and devotion of past and present Secretary-generals of the
Association; Christian Folly-Kossi, Nick Fadugba and now Dr. Elijah Chingosho.
74
http://www.afraa.org/index.php/about-us/mission-a-objectives
Chapter 5
5. The Survey and its report
5.1. Limitations
The analysis of the anonymous Internet survey data was limited by the following:
Intentional deception, poor memory, or misunderstanding of the question can all contribute to
inaccuracies in the data.
All the surveys were voluntarily submitted and anonymous for those who did not wish to answer
question 19.
The survey responses were subjective opinions and could have been subject to the respondents
personal biases.
The author was solely responsible for creating, delivering, collation and analyses of the survey
results.
5.2. Introduction
As stated in the introduction (chapter 1), the vastness and diversity of issues surrounding safety in the
AFI region will make a detailed study beyond the scope of this thesis. Therefore, this survey is
designed to supplement this deficiency. A normal full survey report will cause the volume of data in
this project to exceed the word count intended. As a result, this report has been abbreviated.
The author believes a survey will give an opportunity for this project to benefit from the opinions,
experiences and perceptions of members of the wider aviation community.
The desired target audiences for the survey are aviation professionals with a wide range of experience
and geographical spread. In addition, those who have worked and or lived in Africa will be able to give
a first person impression of the current state of affairs. A total of 148 people responded and 110
completed the survey.
The respondents include airport duty managers, aviation safety inspectors, airline managers, heads of
safety and ATC quality service, ATC radar salespersons, pilots, maintenance engineers, administrative
personnel, cabin crew, NGO staff and trade group members.
The geographical spread was quite impressive with respondents from 30 Countries across the 5
continents participating. The number of respondents (in parenthesis) and nationalities are shown
in the table below.
(2) Angola Australia (2) Bahrain Canada Chad D.R.C (3) Denmark Ethiopia
Fiji Gambia (4) Germany Greece India Ireland Italy Jordan
(3) Kenya Korea Latvia Moldova Morocco Namibia (4)Nigeria (2) Norway
Oman Romania Singapore (7) UAE (25) UK (4) USA.
10. Figure 10. A table showing nationalities of respondent with number of respondents in
parenthesis
5.3. Survey objectives
The objectives of the survey include to:
Test the key assumptions detailed in the introductory portion of this thesis Chapter 1, paragraph
1.1.3.
Evaluate external opinion with regards the project objectives detailed in Chapter 1, paragraph 1.3.
Determine perception and empathy towards the state of aviation in the region.
Explore the possibility of creating a wide network of aviation professionals willing to participate in
safety enhancement programmes for Africa.
Identify additional significant factors responsible for the current poor safety record of the region.
Measure public awareness of the activities of key aviation organisations in the region.
5.4. Survey design and Methods
The survey research is based on the same literature used for this thesis as detailed in Chapter 1,
section 1.4
The survey was designed online using the propriety software and subscription service hosted by a
company called Survey Monkey.
The survey consisted of 19 questions designed to be answered within 10 minutes.
Most of the questions were multi-choice type and required only a tick in a box to answer.
A few questions had open-ended supplemental options, where respondents could give additional
information. This option was not mandatory.
A copy of the entire survey is shown in appendix A on pages 72-82.
5.5. Delivery and data collection
The survey was administered online with an inbuilt data collection and analysis software, which
simplifies data capture and presentation. The data was collected between 14th December 2011
and 14th January 2012.
The survey was delivered through an email link with a brief introductory letter.
The survey target audience consisted of the following groups:
Past and present students of City University engaged in the aviation industry.
Long haul pilots in the employ of Virgin Atlantic Airways.
Aviation professionals involved in non-governmental, trade and training organisations.
A link to the survey was also available on the related discussion webpage on `PPRUNE
website.
148 people responded to the survey out which 110 (74%) completed the survey. Thus, the survey
had 110 useable responses.
5.6. Survey findings and conclusions
Although the sampling rate is considered small, the target audience was reached and most of the
objectives were achieved.
The survey responses show that 81.2% of the respondents have at least 10 years experience in the
industry. Nearly half (44.2%) have over two decades worth of experience each. This should give some
level of credibility to their observations and opinions.
Half of the respondents 57 (52.3%) have worked or are working in Africa, although only 24 (21.8%)
currently live or work there now.
11. Figure 11: Survey response to question 6
(The vertical scale is weighted as 1=very poor, 2= Poor, 3= acceptable, 4= Good and 5= Very Good.)
The average safety level for Africa was rated poor by 63 (57.3%) respondents with 24 (21.8%) others
rating it as very poor. 21 respondents say it is acceptable and 2 respondents agree that it is good.
12. Figure 12 Survey response to question 7
(The vertical scale is weighted as 1= No effect, 2= Negligible, 3= partial, 4 = significant and 5= Very significant)
5.7. External factors affecting aviation safety
This is one of the questions that has generated much interest and comments. The results support
the view that independent Nations have to take responsibility for the outcome of their leadership
decisions. The average score for most of the factors was between partial and significant.
Acceding to the assertion that African airlines are losing some experienced staff to foreign airlines,
perhaps, because the staff choose to leave. It also confirms the perception that African airlines are
marginalised in global politics but maybe because their governments have left them vulnerable and
exposed.
The respondents confirm the authors belief that although the slave trade and colonisation were
despicable acts of history, trying to blame the current underdevelopment on these factors after 5
decades of independence is just a feeble excuse for incompetence. This factor scored an average
between negligible and partial.
13. Figure 13: Survey response to question 8:
(The vertical scale is weighted as 1= No effect, 2= Negligible, 3= partial, 4 = significant and 5= Very significant)
Most of the respondents agree that all these factors have significant impact on aviation safety in the
AFI region especially widespread corruption and poor infrastructure
It is quite informative that all 6 groups of internal factors received similar scores.
(The vertical scale is weighted as 1= No effect, 2= Negligible, 3= partial, 4 = significant and 5 = Very significant.)
The consensus from the respondents is that establishing world-class MRO, technological upgrade
and harmonisation of regulations and training policies should have priority over the other strategic
options listed. The author believes that priority should be on democratic principles and political
stability followed by leadership commitment to regional integration.
(The vertical scale shows the number of responses.)
The column chart clearly shows that Europe is the location of choice for most of the respondents in
this survey. It is closely followed by the USA and Australia. Africa is the least likely place majority of the
aviation professionals polled will choose to live even when offered exactly the same level of
remuneration and benefits by an employer. It is worth noting that about 25% of the respondents live in
Europe or are Europeans so the results may be slightly influenced by that factor.
At least 92 (83.6%)of the respondents agree that a skilled and competent workforce is indispensable
in policy implementation in the AFI region. The 92 respondents are composed of 38 who strongly
agree and 54 who agree. Nonetheless, this confirms one of the objectives of the survey.
(The vertical scale shows the number of responses.)
The respondents believe that ICAO and IATA are leading other organisation in efforts towards
improving aviation safety. These organisations comparatively higher levels of international credibility
(ICAO) and financial resources (IATA); two factors necessary for success.
The response to this question shows that there is great empathy and benevolence amongst humanity.
Evidently, less than a quarter of the respondents of the survey are of African origin. It is indeed
commendable to find that from this small sample of respondents, a number of non-Africans are willing
to help improve the state of safety in Africa, even if they do not consider it a location of choice.
Another objective of the survey accomplished.
In closing, the region will benefit from an extensive follow-up anonymous survey to ascertain without
inhibition the perceptions, problems, solutions, projections and expectations of the various
stakeholders in the global aviation community have with concerning the future of aviation in Africa.
There is need for further research into safe and sustainable aviation in Africa.
Chapter 6
6. Conclusions and recommendations
6.1. Conclusions
Economically, the continent has the market (population) and the resources to successfully run a
safe and sustainable aviation industry if these are properly harnessed. It has immense natural
resources much of which remain untapped except for oil and precious minerals. These two have
been attracting interest and conflict due to their demand and value.
75
Africa is still politically and socially divided. This is clearly exhibited by the poor implementation of
YD, the diplomatic deadlock between Zimbabwe and the EU and the indecisiveness over the
NATO intervention in Libya.
Corruption is widespread with most of the proceeds invested in foreign banks to the detriment if
the African economy. Sometimes the scourge is actively encouraged by multinational banks and
business corporations.
West Africa has no Boeing, Airbus or equivalent simulator facility or MRO that can be used for pilot
training or capable of a C-check.
Most of Africa still handle both aviation safety information and information that will aid socio-
political reformation in a reactive or bureaucratic manner (Reason, 2006)
76
. This is evident in the
low level of aviation Accident Data Reporting (ADREP) buy-in and anti-corruption reporting. There
is low employee and public engagement in both aviation safety and governance.
75
Ade Adenekan, Through The Looking Glass: Oil and Diamond are Africa's bane?
http://www.peace.ca/afoildiamonds.htm
76
Reason, J., Organisation, corporate culture and risks.IATA Montreal. 1993
A general lack of practical quality management is observed in most airline operations. Most airlines
secure ISO 9000 series certificates but do not practice even basic fundamentals such as the
Deming cycle. Airlines aim for compliance oblivious that quality assurance will guarantee both
compliance and efficiency.
Internal and external organisations (such as IATA, IFALPA, FAA, EASA, AFRAA, AFCAC and
Eurocontrol, etc.) currently working in this region have similar and over lapping aims, objectives and
initiatives. They have failed to co-ordinate their activities or recognise that there not enough people
to implement their very many strategies
77
.
The region is facing an acute shortage of a qualified work force. In the words of AFCAC there are
endemic problems in recruiting and retaining qualified personnel in sufficient numbers with the
necessary expertise to carry out their day to day regulatory and oversight functions
78
.
The Aviation industry in Africa is too strategic to be completely privatised and left purely to the
dictates of market forces at the current stage of its development. The top airlines in Africa, Middle
East and China are all government owned.
6.2. Recommendations: Governments actions
6.2.1. Political strategies for Synergy
African nations have to give up some level of individuality to succeed as a stronger group.
Failure to attain political synergy will mean these Countries will maintain the status of pawns in the
grand game of international politics and economics. Europe as it is envisaged in 1992 is also a
potentially formidable economic superpower, but the reluctance to establish a European monetary
system or sacrifice more individual national sovereignty could inhibit the full realisation of this
potential.
79
-Helmut Schmidt, former German chancellor (1988)
77
Overview of the state of air transport in Africa, 16
th
-19
th
May 2005. Meeting of African Ministers of Air
transport first ordinary session, sun City. South Africa.
78
Fourteenth meeting of the technical committee of AFCAC in Nairobi- Kenya, 2-3 June 2011. page 2
paragraph 2.5
79
Schmidt, Dr. Helmut., (1988) African leadership forum held in Ota, Nigeria.
Achieving regional integration will present some tough leadership decisions. It will mean relinquishing
some level of individual sovereignty on some issues for the interest of the entire group. However, when
the process is successfully completed, the gains outweigh the sacrifices made.
6.2.2. Transformational Leadership
The notion of an African Union is essential and long overdue. The challenge is the emergence of the
Leadership required to give it the momentum it must have to achieve relevance.
Leadership is a social process in which a person is able to enlist the aid of others and direct their
activities to achieve a collective goal
80
. By observing the global social changes taking place over the
past decade, it is obvious that, all forms of leadership and governance that remain hierarchical and
systematically authoritarian are doomed to become increasingly ineffective and engender an
implosion. Leadership that will succeed in the African Union (AU) is the type that acknowledges the
leadership capacity in every other member.
81
6.2.3. Transparency and accountability in governance
African governments must pass a freedom of information act across the continent to encourage
transparency and accountability of public officials.
82
This will increase the prospects for systematic
reforms which could counter corruption in the region. Increased press freedom and an independent
judiciary will also strengthen the fight against corruption using existing checks and balances.
Constitutional reforms should be carried out to make the leadership truly accountable. Open and
frank communication results in a clearly understood, written and enforceable (legislated) document
detailing the responsibilities and expectations of the people and their governments. This is close to
the ideal situation when the iceberg is clearly above the water.
80
Storey, G., and Jankowska, W. (9
th
November 2009), Human resource management module. Air safety
management, City University, London.
81
Burns, J.M, (1978), Leadership, N.Y, Harper and Row.
82
Kenneth Ehigiator, 8th February 2005, NASI Urges FG to Force Aviation Parastatals to Publish Accounts
http://allafrica.com/stories/200502081032.html
6.2.4. The perfect substitute for foreign aid
African governments should make a representation to the United Nations to have a mandate passed
that compels all Countries to return the assets that have been misappropriated from Africa. These are
to be repatriated back to the source country with 90 days of the complaint being made.
6.2.5. Establishment of a free trade Area covering the entire continent
The African Economic Community (AEC) is designed to lead to economic integration. This can only be
achieved by an increase in intra-regional trade.
With this in place, Africa should at least be able to produce what it consumes. This will further
strengthen regional ties and reduce escalating conflicts. Economic dependency is a strong incentive
to seek peaceful resolutions and avoid serious conflicts among members. Currently, African countries
trade more with their former colonist than with each other.
6.2.6. Fly Africa Policy
The reasons that compelled the American congress to adopt the fly America Act
83
1974 was to
protect their industry against unfair practices and strong competition from foreign carriers. The USA
has always argued that this does not amount to a government subsidy. With the current debt profiles,
African economies may not afford to give direct subsidies, so this will have to suffice.
The high volume of government sponsored foreign travel within and outside the continent will improve
the operating margins, safety and efficiency of African carriers.
6.3. Recommendations: Government and Industry Stakeholder actions
83
International Air Transportation Fair Competitive Practices Act of 1974.
6.3.1. Clearly define African Civil Aviation Commissions (AFCAC) role
Among all the structures currently in place, AFCAC is in the best position to play the lead role in the
alignment of civil aviation policies and the harmonisation of the regions regulations. The role, scope
and authority of AFCAC must be strengthened and clearly defined by the group.
Logically it should be empowered to co-ordinate all aviation activities in the AFI region including those
of the partner organisations such as IATA and ICAO. It should be the nerve centre for broad based
policy and strategy formulation and cannot afford to tolerate a vacuum. However, it is necessary to
learn from the problems the EU encountered with National Authorities and the interpretation of
harmonised regulations and avoid the pitfalls.
6.3.2. Improve coordination and alignment of safety strategies among partner
organisations
The internal and external organisations currently working to address aviation concerns in this region
have similar and over lapping aims, objectives and initiatives. There are currently over 54 ongoing
aviation related initiatives being implemented across the continent. These end up keeping the
regulatory staff busy attending monthly seminars and workshops to the detriment of safety and
economic oversight functions. There are far too many consultants and not enough people to
implement their very many strategies.
Secondly, it will be counter productive if diverging or conflicting strategies are being implemented
simultaneously by different interested parties in the region. To illustrate; Thales of France recently
completed airspace upgrades for two African Countries.
Nigeria had spent over $86 USD million for a 3 year contract that defaulted to eight years (2003-2011)
to procure an inefficient surface radar programme for its 923,000 square kilometre airspace.
Namibia on the other hand, spent less than $14 USD million in just three years (January 2009-
December 2011) and has launched a more sophisticated Wide Area Multilateration (WAM) surveillance
system including ADS-C for its 825,000 square kilometres airspace
84
. Obviously, Namibia made a
more sensible and future-proof decision. It is understood that the buyer always has the final decision
on choice, however one has to question the quality of the consultation provided by Thales to Nigeria
before and during execution of the contract.
84
http://www.thalesgroup.com/Press_Releases/Group/2012/
Namibia_inaugurates_new_Thales_air_traffic_control_centre/
6.3.3. Design a one size fits all Audit Programme
The multiplicity of similar safety audits such as IOSA and the FAAs IASA besides the normal ICAO
audit processes that CAAs and airlines carryout is counter-productive. A close inspection shows that
80% of the elements of these programmes are identical.
AFCAC should put in place a framework that integrates all the vital elements of these audit
programmes into one comprehensive audit process that allows the CAAs to use their lean resources
on other required oversight responsibilities.
6.3.4. Training and retaining skilled Personnel
Africa needs to invest in robust initial and recurrent training programmes as a mitigating measure
against the risks of catastrophic events. With bigger and faster aircraft, the consequences of human
failure are more far reaching now than they were a generation ago. The skills acquired 5 years ago
now appear outdated in the face of technological innovations. Most times, the human element is
trying to catch up with the machine
85
. Investigations reveal that the UK has more ICAO recognised
aviation training institutions than all African Countries combined. According to Boeings 2011 outlook,
Africa will need 14,300 pilots and 19,200 engineers by 2030. Thats is, an additional 715 pilots and
960 maintenance engineers every year.
The migration of African professionals to developed Countries represents a personal decision shaped
mainly by an individuals assessment of where the best career opportunities lie. Governments can help
influence this decision by improving living and working conditions. They should also co-operate with
member States and offer realistic prospects for secure and rewarding professional careers in Africa.
6.3.5. Active participation by Professionals
The professional aviation bodies like IFALPA, IFATCA, Engineers International (EI), etc., should be
more visible and vocal in industry circles.
Aviation professionals and the general citizenry must support civil society organisations throughout the
region in becoming active and outspoken concerning governance issues and corruption.
85
Steve Bond,(2010) The aeroplane is talking to you what you should do is listen to it, IFA News page 18-19
6.3.6. Joint investments in aviation infrastructure
African nations were urged to co-operate with each other on major infrastructure projects.
Infrastructure projects can stimulate the economy and provide employment, while green energy
projects can help combat climate change.
86
It is necessary to co-operate in highly deficient areas like:
Search and rescue
Meteorological services
Accident and incident investigation
Satellite based communication and navigation system.

The aviation environment is affected by factors all of which must be appropriately managed on a
regional scope to effect any significant change.
Historical evidence abounds that the impressive strides made by individual Countries like South Africa,
Ethiopia, Egypt, Kenya, e.t.c., within the AFI region in achieving global safety and technological
standards have been eclipsed by the failures of their proximate neighbours.
6.3.7. Pooling of resources to enhance utilisation of existing structures
Africa needs a comprehensive strategy for working in concert. A strategy that will integrate identifying
potential and existing skills among member States.
Then offer encouragement and support by providing large-scale, long-term patronage. The ultimate
objective is building and refining of the skill sets within the continent.
The AU could produce a framework that gives member States opportunities to become proficient in
certain fields and activities within a 15-20 year period. This comprehensive approach will not be
restricted to aviation alone.
For example the entire continent could mandate that from 2015 to 2030 all member states will
encourage, procure from and rely on:
South Africa, Ethiopia, Egypt and Kenya for all aviation training and maintenance requirements.
Algeria, Nigeria, Libya, Ghana and Angola for oil and gas, solid minerals and power generation
requirements.
86
World Economic forum on Africa report, Dar es Salam 5-7 May, 2010 page 19.
Africa must plan and aim to exploit synergies, gain economies of scale and scope, improving
production processes with practice. So that in the long-term, the controlling instruments still remain
on the African continent.
The current initiative of setting up Regional Safety Oversight Organisation (RSOO) and sharing the
services of qualified aviation safety inspectors under the AFI-CIS is a welcome development.
6.3.8. Full implementation of the Yamoussoukro decision (YD)
It is a major drawback that 10 member nations have not yet signed the YD.
87
However, all signatories
of the Abuja treaty of 12th May 1994 are automatically bound to implement the YD. The expeditious
implementation of YD is hindered because articles in trade agreements currently existing between
African nations and their OECD donors indirectly discourage regional integration. African leaders
should realise by now that the only real chance Africa has at sustainable development is regional
synergy.
6.3.9. Single Air Service agreement between the AFI region and the rest of the
world.
Produce a framework to review and terminate all existing individual Bi-lateral Air Service Agreements
(BASA) and aim to establish a single Air service Agreement between Africa and the rest of the world.
The EU has emerged with EASA taking over safety responsibilities from the National Aviation
Authorities (NAA).
Plans are being concluded to negotiate future air service agreements with the EU represented as a
single unit, making the group formidable
88
. Africa should form a united front to negotiate air service
agreements. This will provide positive macro-economic effects for the region.
87
World Bank Study Urges Air Services Liberalisation to Promote Safety and Development in Africa. 27th
September 2010
88
Air service agreements between Member States and third countries http://europa.eu/legislation_summaries/
internal_market/single_market_services/l24260_en.htm
6.3.10. The Future: liberalised Consolidation
African airlines should immediately embark on strategic review of their business models to aid in
choice of strategic options.
They should seriously consider strategic mergers and acquisitions to facilitate access to intangible
assets such as airport slots, new markets and increased corporate versatility.
A lesson from 2 of the major EU carriers that dominate African aviation:
A signal that the era of cross-border mergers has arrived is the case of British Airways (BA) and Iberia;
the flag carriers of two European Countries. The two airlines completed their merger on the 21st
January 2011 and evolved into the International Airlines consolidated Group (IAG).
The group has recently acquired British Midlands International (BMI) and its priced slots at Heathrow
airport from Lufthansa. IAG is still working towards a closer union with American Airlines.
Lufthansa currently owns 13% of Luxair, 19% of JetBlue, 25% of Jade cargo (China), and 100% of
German wings, Eurowings, Swiss International Air Lines, Brussels, Lufthansa cargo, Lufthansa City
line, Austrian airlines and Lufthansa Italia.
89
It is expedient to link strategy formulation and
implementation into one efficient and seamless process.
In global business, the competitive advantage of nations plays a significant role in defining the
competitive advantage of their carriers
90
. As illustrated above, governments play active roles in
strategic industries like aviation and nuclear power to further their economic interests. Countries are
now willing to make policy adjustments in the interest of macro-economic benefits. Though this
interference results in a distortion of the natural balance of market forces, it remains part of global
economic realities. This is Africas moment.
89
Adapted from Airline business 1st May-1st Aug 2009 and Flight international 31st March-28th April 2009.
90
Hofton, Andy (2009) The Airline business. City university, London
Pam, D.R., (Aug 2009), Airline business course work. City University,London.
Appendix A: Survey questions
Page 1
Thank you very much for taking this survey.
It should take 5-10 minutes to complete this survey which has less than 20 questions.

If there are any issues, comments, advice or feedback please contact me on:

drpam007@gmail.com
+44(0)7774037263.

Once again, thanks for your time.

1. How would you describe your involvement in the Aviation industry? Please choose
all that apply and if necessary specify in the last empty box.

1.Safe, sustainable avation in Africa and the Indian ocean region (AFI);
Peop...
Airline Administration staff; HR,legal, accounts.

Airline investor; shareholder.

Airline management; CEO, MD, line manager.

Cabin crew.

Dispatcher.

Engineer.

Government representative; Regulatory staff, auditor, inspector, surveyor.

Manufacturer; airframe, engines, avionics, e.t.c

Non- governmental Organisation; ICAO, IATA, AFRAA, AFCAP,

Pilot.

Private; independent Consultant; safety, engineering, Audit.

Services Provider, navigation, support.

Training organisation, academic, student, instructor,

Other ( please specify in the box below)

Page 2
2. How long have you been involved in aviation?
3. Where do you currently live and/or work?
(please Choose all that apply)
4. As an aviation personnel, Have you ever lived or worked(even as a crew member) in
any of these locations? (Choose all that apply)
Less than 3 years

*'
3-5 years

*'
5-10 years

*'
10-15 years

*'
15-20 years

*'
over 20 years

*'
United States and Canada

M|.
Europe

M|.
Middle East

M|.
Africa

M|.
South America and Caribbean

M|.
Asia

M|.
Australia

M|.

M|.
Europe

M|.
Middle East

M|.
Africa

M|.
South America and Caribbean

M|.
Asia

M|.
Australia

M|.
Other (please specify)
Page 3
5. If you have ever lived and/or worked in Africa, approximately what is the cumulative
time you have spent there?

less than 1 year

1-3 years

3-5 years

5-10 years

10-15 years

More than 15 years

Page 4
As an overview, the AFI region is basically comprising of the African continent and the Indian ocean area including
Madagascar. Though a total of 54 nations and independent states. As a point of comparison, these 54 members (with
their various regulators, regulations, airspace classifications and their population of 1,097,000,000 is slightly less than
India's 1,102,000,000 people. Note that India has a single regulator, airspace and aviation policy.
6. How do you percieve these ICAO regions in terms of Aviation safety?
7. How would you rate the impact of these external factors to the current safety levels
of African airlines?

2.Safety in the AFI ( Africa and Indian Ocean) region.
*
Very Poor Poor Acceptable Good Very good
Europe
Middle East
Africa
South America and
Caribbean

Asia
Australia
*
No effect Negligible Partial Significant Very significant
Negative effects of
colonization

Denial of favorable access
to credit/manufacturers

Poaching of skilled and
competent personnel

Marginalization due to
Global politics

Uneven playing field with
established carriers from
developed countries

Any other comments will be appreciated

Page 5
8. With respect to the African region, How would you rate the impact of these internal
factors to the current safety levels in Africa?
9. With respect to the African region, How do you think the following initiatives will
help improve aviation safety levels in AFI region?
*
Lack of common aviation
policy objectives within
the regions' governments

Regional conflict and
Political instability

Lack of skilled man-power
Poor infrastructure and
navigation deficiencies

Widespread Corruption
disharmonious regulations
and training standards

Lack of synergy within the
regional airlines

*
Africa's Governments
commitment to aviation
safety by aligning their
policies and strategies to
obtain synergy.

Democratic principles and
Political stability

Technological upgrade
and Centralised Single-
African airspace.

Harmonization of
regulations and training
standards to effectively
use the limited man-power

Co-operation and
consolidation among
Africa's airlines

Establishing world class
Maintenance,repairs and
overhaul (MRO)'s and
training organisations

Any more insight will be appreciated


Page 6
Please indicate how much you agree or disagree with the statements in question 10-15.
10. Assuming you are offered exactly the same level of remuneration and benefits by
an employer, how would you rank your choice of location from these 7 choices.

(1st being the most likely location you like and 7th being the least likely choice of
location)
11. African ( governments, organisations, airlines, airports, e.t.c.) send their personnel
overseas for training because Africa does not have enough aviation training
institutions equipped with adequate facilities and qualified training personnel to meet
it's current manpower needs.
12. Establishing world standard training institutions on the continent will reduce
reliance on both expensive foreign based training and the expatriates employed in
Africa; thus boosting local skill-base as well as reduce operating cost for aviation
organisations.

3.Does Africa possess( locally) the skill base it needs to sustain it's devel...
*
7th 6th 5th 4th 3rd 2nd 1st
Europe
Middle East
Africa
South America and
Caribbean

Asia
Australia
*
Strongly disagree

Disagree

Neither agree nor disagree

Agree

Strongly agree

Strongly disagree

Disagree


Agree

Strongly agree

Page 7
13. In the last 25 years (1985-2010) Africa has lost and is still losing the skilled
manpower it desperately needs to sustain its development to more developed
countries ;(Brain drain). These comprise of promising academics, scientists and
technocrats on government sponsored programmes who do not to return to Africa after
completing their studies abroad.
14. As a result of the scenario in question 13 (above), there is dearth of competent
leadership in Africa that will effectively conceive and implement strategies to develop
the continent.
15. If Africa were to attempt to align it's aviation policies (all the 54 members) and
harmonize their aviation regulations WITHOUT the required skilled and competent
human resources on site to initiate, implement, and manage the process; it will most
likely end in failure.
*
*
*
Strongly disagree

Disagree


Agree

Strongly agree

Strongly disagree

Disagree


Agree

Strongly agree

Strongly disagree

Disagree


Agree

Strongly agree


Page 7
13. In the last 25 years (1985-2010) Africa has lost and is still losing the skilled
manpower it desperately needs to sustain its development to more developed
countries ;(Brain drain). These comprise of promising academics, scientists and
technocrats on government sponsored programmes who do not to return to Africa after
completing their studies abroad.
14. As a result of the scenario in question 13 (above), there is dearth of competent
leadership in Africa that will effectively conceive and implement strategies to develop
the continent.
15. If Africa were to attempt to align it's aviation policies (all the 54 members) and
harmonize their aviation regulations WITHOUT the required skilled and competent
human resources on site to initiate, implement, and manage the process; it will most
likely end in failure.
*
*
*
Strongly disagree

Disagree


Agree

Strongly agree

Strongly disagree

Disagree


Agree

Strongly agree

Strongly disagree

Disagree


Agree

Strongly agree


Page 8
16. What do you think of these organisations' efforts in improving aviation safety in
Africa?
*
Very Little or no efforts Some efforts No idea A lot A great deal
International civil aviation
Organisation (ICAO)

International Air transport
Association (IATA)

African Airlines
Association (AFRAA)

The African Union (AU)
and various African
governments

Airport council
international (ACI)


Page 9
17. Will you like
18. Do you consider yourself to be of African descent?
19. A very sincere thank you for your time. To validate this survey, it'll be really helpful if
you can provide the information below (This is not mandatory):
Your data is protected and you'll not be contacted for any reason unless you expressly
requested feedback on the results of the survey and or the project to which it
pertains;ie "Safe and sustainable Aviation in the AFI region".

4.Thank you for your time.
*
Yes, Please. No, thank you.
Feedback on the result of
this survey?

To receive digital (PDF)
copy of this completed
project?

To be part of the initiative/
team willing to provide
voluntary or paid services
towards enhancing safety
in the AFI region?

*
Name:
Country:
Email Address:
Any comments, feedback, criticisms will be appreciated.

No

Yes

References, notes and Sources:
Air Transport Intelligence http://www.rati.com/default.asp?target=../news/news.asp?

sub=item.asp?id=277896
Armstrong, Michael (2006), A handbook of Human resource Management practice. 10

th
Edition pp
299-310. Kogan-Page
Bor, Robert ( October 2009), Psychology in Aviation management Module. Air safety management.
City University, London.
Bouno, G. (April 2009), Quality Management in Airline Operations.Air safety management. City
University, London.
Dekker, Sidney W. A. Human Factors in Aviation - A natural history; Lund University School of
Aviation. Technical Report 2003-02.
Flight safety foundation http://www.flightsafety.org/cfit5.html
Mitchell, Ed (2005) Strategies to Reduce Aviation Employees Procedural Non-Compliance.

MSc Project in Air Safety Management at City University, London.
OECD http://www.oecd.org/home/0,3675,en_2649_201185_1_1_1_1_1,00.html
Shaw, Stephen. (2007), Airline Marketing and management. 6

th
edition. Ashgate
Shearman, Philip (2008) Airline economics. City University London.
Shearman, Philip (2010) Regional economic benefits of Air service versus the environmental cost of
emissions: The case of London City airport and Newquay Cornwall airport.
Strauch, Barry (2002), Investigating Human error: Incidents, Accidents and Complex systems.
Reprinted in 2007. Ashgate.
UK flight safety committee http://www.ukfsc.co.uk.
Whitaker, Timothy James (2007). Crisis Management Module. Air safety management. City
University, London.

Safe and Sustainable Aviation in Africa Alignment of Policies, Regulations and Resources.

Hochgeladen von

Dokumentinformationen

Originaltitel

Copyright

Dieses Dokument teilen

Dokument teilen oder einbetten

Freigabeoptionen

Stufen Sie dieses Dokument als nützlich ein?

Sind diese Inhalte unangemessen?

Copyright:

Safe and Sustainable Aviation in Africa Alignment of Policies, Regulations and Resources.

Hochgeladen von

Copyright:

Pam, D.R.

, (2012) Safe and sustainable aviation in the AFI region i

Determine the current stage of Africas socio-economic development.

Goods market efficiency

Labour market efficiency

Health and primary education

Financial market development

Pilots being reprimanded, fined or sacked for:

Search and rescue

Accident and incident investigation

Satellite based communication and navigation system.

Airline investor; shareholder.

Airline management; CEO, MD, line manager.

Government representative; Regulatory staff, auditor, inspector, surveyor.

Manufacturer; airframe, engines, avionics, e.t.c

Non- governmental Organisation; ICAO, IATA, AFRAA, AFCAP,

Private; independent Consultant; safety, engineering, Audit.

Services Provider, navigation, support.

Training organisation, academic, student, instructor,

Other ( please specify in the box below)

More than 15 years

Neither agree nor disagree

Neither agree nor disagree

Neither agree nor disagree

Neither agree nor disagree

Neither agree nor disagree

Any more insight will be appreciated

Neither agree nor disagree

Neither agree nor disagree

Neither agree nor disagree

Any more insight will be appreciated

Air Transport Intelligence http://www.rati.com/default.asp?target=../news/news.asp?

Armstrong, Michael (2006), A handbook of Human resource Management practice. 10

Flight safety foundation http://www.flightsafety.org/cfit5.html

Mitchell, Ed (2005) Strategies to Reduce Aviation Employees Procedural Non-Compliance.

Shaw, Stephen. (2007), Airline Marketing and management. 6

Shearman, Philip (2008) Airline economics. City University London.

UK flight safety committee http://www.ukfsc.co.uk.

Das könnte Ihnen auch gefallen