Impacts of Climate Change on Households Food

Security; Their Adaptation and Disaster Risk

Reduction Strategies: The Case of Mille Woreda in
Afar National Regional State, Ethiopia
By: Markos Budusa
In partial fulfillment of requirement for the degree of Master of Science
in Agriculture and Environmental Sciences
(Disaster Risk Science and Sustainable Development)
May 20, 2011
Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
ii
Impacts of Climate Change on Households Food
Security; Their Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction
Strategies: The Case of Mille Woreda in Afar National
Regional State, Ethiopia
A Thesis Submitted to College of Agriculture and Environmental
Sciences, Department of Disaster Risk Management and Sustainable
Development School of Graduates Studies
Bahir Dar University
In Partial Fulfillment of Requirement for the Degree of Master of
Science in Agriculture and Environmental Sciences
(Disaster Risk Science and Sustainable Development)
Msc. Thesis
By:
Markos Budusa Ware
May 20, 2011
Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
iii
Bahir Dar University
College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences
Department of Disaster Management and Sustainable
Development
The unsigned hereby to certify that they have read and recommend to the
graduate studies for acceptance a thesis entitled Impacts of Climate Change
on Households Food Security; Their Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction
Strategies: The Case of Mille Woreda in Afar National Regional State,
Ethiopia by Markos Budusa Ware in partial fulfillment of the requirement
for the Degree of Master of Science in Disaster Risk Science and Sustainable
Development
Advisor: _______________________________________________
Dr. Eneyew Adgo
Co-advisors:
_________________________________________________
Adane Tesfaye

___________________________________________________
Professor Muluneh Yitayew
iv
Declaration of ownership
This thesis is a presentation of my original research work. Wherever contribution of others
are involved, every effort is made to indicate this clearly, with due reference to the
literature, and acknowledgement of collaborative works and discussions. The work was
done under the guidance of Dr. Eneyew Adgo at the Bahir Dar University, Ethiopia. I also
hereby declare that this thesis is my own work and effort and that it has not been submitted
anywhere for any award. Where other sources of information have been used, they have
been heartily acknowledged.
I, Markos Budusa Ware, confirm that this work submitted for partial fulfillment of
master in science in Disaster Risk Science and Sustainable Development is my own and is
expressed in my own words. Any uses made within it of the works of any other authors, in
any form (ideas, equations, figures, text, tables, programs), are properly acknowledged at
their point of use. A list of the references used is included in both list of body and
references.
Name: Markos Budusa Ware
Signed: __________________________________
Bahir Dar University
Date: __________________________________
v
Executive summary
The study assess impacts of climate change on households food security; their adaptation
and disaster risk reduction strategies in Afar National Regional State at Mille woreda,
Ethiopia. It highlights the socioeconomic characteristics of the pastoralists, community
perception on climate change, and impact of climate change on food security; their
adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies adopted to mitigate the effects of climate
change. The overall objective of the study was to understand the impact of climate change
on food security, identify local adaptation and possible disaster risk reduction strategies at
local level. Specific objects of the study were to understand variability and trends of
rainfall and temperature, assess impacts of climate change on food security, identify local
adaptation strategies, look into institutional and policy supports to improve climate change
adaptation and draw recommendations of adaptation strategies. Mille woreda was selected
purposively from the region based on prevalence of the problem, recurrence of climate
change induced hazards and presence of CORDAID partner NGO. Based on consultation
with woreda administration three Kebeles were drawn for the study and further
investigation was conducted. Data collected from both primary and secondary sources
were employed for the study. Both qualitative and quantitative analyses were also
employed for the study. Rainfall and temperature data acquired from National
Meteorology Service Agency, Samara branch, of Ethiopia were analyzed quantitatively
using Microsoft Office Excel 2007. Primary information collected from households, key
informant and focus group discussion were analyzed using SPSS version 16.0, CRiSTAL
version 4.0 and discussed using Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) formula. Description and
analysis of data were carried out using frequency counts, percentages, radar, column and
line charts, and tables. From sample population 79% of the respondents were male, and
87% were below 50 years old. While 76% had no formal education, 24% have various
levels of formal education. About 91% and 88% of the respondents perceived decreased
rainfall and increased temperature respectively. About 89% of respondents perceived that
hunger period increased and 72% of respondents believed they have no enough income to
cover their food expenses at the current market price. About 81% of respondents believed
that herd size has shown decreased trend. About 96% of respondents believed that there is
human health problem and about 80% perceived that its intensity and prevalence has been
increased from year to year and attributed to climate change. Emergency food aid is one of
vi
the sources of food and crucial to avert the problem o f chronic food insecurity. Climate
change has been increasing magnitude, intensity, recurrence and threat of climate induced
extreme events like flood and drought. Moreover, community has suggested possible
adaption measures for the study area to avert the problem in the future. Generally, at the
study area drought and flood become common place and in turn has been causing
significant loss on lives and livestock. Climate change directly or indirectly has been
affecting food security since local livelihood is sensitive and dependent on climate change.
Key words: climate change, Mille woreda, food security, adaptation and disaster risk
reduction
vii
Table of Contents
Executive summary .................................................................................................................... v
Table of Contents ..................................................................................................................... vii
List of tables.............................................................................................................................. ix
List of figures ............................................................................................................................. x
Acknowledgement.................................................................................................................... xii
1. Introduction............................................................................................................................ 1
1.1. Background of the study................................................................................................... 1
1.2. Statement of the problem.................................................................................................. 2
1.3. Objectives of the study..................................................................................................... 4
1.3.1. General objective....................................................................................................... 4
1.3.2. Specific objectives ..................................................................................................... 5
2. Literature Review.................................................................................................................. 7
2.1. An overview of climate change..................................................................................... 7
2.2. Concept of food security............................................................................................... 9
2.3. Impacts of climate change on food security .................................................................... 10
2.4. Trends of climate change impact and livelihood vulnerabilities ...................................... 12
2.5. Institutional and policy supports to improve climate change adaptation.......................... 14
2.5. Analytic framework ....................................................................................................... 18
3. Research Methodology ......................................................................................................... 21
3.1. Description of the study area .......................................................................................... 21
3.3. Data sources and collection tools.................................................................................... 24
3.4. Data analysis methods.................................................................................................... 25
3.6. Scope and Limitation of the study............................................................................... 25
4. Result and Discussion........................................................................................................... 27
viii
4.1. Characteristics of respondents ........................................................................................ 27
4.2. Climate change implications........................................................................................... 31
4.2.1. Rainfall variability and trends .................................................................................. 32
4.2.2. Temperature variability and trends........................................................................... 35
4.3. Local community perception on climate change ............................................................. 37
4.4. Impacts of climate change/variability on food security ................................................... 41
4.4.1. Implication of climate change impacts on food access.............................................. 42
4.4.2. Impacts of climate change on livestock (food availability) ....................................... 45
4.4.3. Impacts of climate change on human health............................................................. 49
4.5. Nexus between rainfall and food aid requirement ........................................................... 50
4. 6. Climate change induced hazards, their impacts and coping strategies in the study
area....................................................................................................................................... 53
4.7. Impacts of climate change induced hazards on livestock holding on the study area......... 61
4.8. Local adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies.................................................... 65
4.9. Institutional and policy support for adaptation................................................................ 67
4. 10. Suggested adaptation strategies for the study area........................................................ 68
5. Conclusion and Recommendations ....................................................................................... 71
5.1. Conclusion..................................................................................................................... 71
5.2. Recommendations.......................................................................................................... 74
6. References............................................................................................................................ 77
7. Appendices........................................................................................................................... 81
ix
List of tables
TABLE 1: RELEVANT POLICIES, STRATEGIES AND PROGRAMS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE
ADAPTATION IN ETHIOPIA...............................................................................................17
TABLE 2: CHARACTERISTICS OF THE RESPONDENT HOUSEHOLDS IN THE STUDY SITE.................28
TABLE 3: RANGE OF AGE, HOUSE HOUSEHOLD SIZE AND ANNUAL INCOME OF THE
RESPONDENTS (N=95) ....................................................................................................29
TABLE 4: CLIMATE CHANGE PERCEPTION OF THE LOCAL COMMUNITY (N=95)..........................37
TABLE 5: IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD SECURITY AND LIVELIHOOD........................41
TABLE 6: AVERAGE YEARLY PRICE AND TERM OF TRADE INDEX CALCULATED AS AN
EXAMPLE .......................................................................................................................43
TABLE 7: IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD ACCESS......................................................45
TABLE 8: IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HERD SIZE AND COMPOSITION AND ASSOCIATED
REASONS........................................................................................................................47
TABLE 9: IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HUMAN HEALTH..................................................49
TABLE 10: NEXUS BETWEEN RAINFALL, AFFECTED PEOPLE AND FOOD RELIEF REQUIREMENT ...53
TABLE 11: HAZARDS, THEIR IMPACTS AND COPING STRATEGIES OF SENE'ASNNA KUSURTU
KEBELE..........................................................................................................................55
TABLE 12: HAZARDS, THEIR IMPACTS AND COPING STRATEGIES OF DIYLENNA GIRARO
KEBELE..........................................................................................................................56
TABLE 13: HAZARDS, THEIR IMPACTS AND COPING STRATEGIES OF GESIYONNA LA'AS
KEBELE..........................................................................................................................57
TABLE 14: PAIR-WISE RANKING OF HAZARDS BY COMMUNITY.................................................58
TABLE 15: FOOD SECURITY RISK, HAZARDS, VULNERABILITY FACTORS AND ADAPTIVE
CAPACITY.......................................................................................................................60
TABLE 16: LOCAL ADAPTATION AND DISASTER RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES .........................65
TABLE 17: LOCAL COPING MECHANISMS INDENTIFIED BY THE COMMUNITIES...........................66
x
List of figures
FIGURE 1: NEXUS OF PEOPLE NEED FOOD AID WITH RAINFALL AMOUNT IN ETHIOPIA.................... 12
FIGURE 2: LOCATION MAP OF AFAR NATIONAL REGIONAL STATE AND MILLE WOREDA
(SOURCE: BOFED, 2009) .................................................................................................... 22
FIGURE 3: RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LIVESTOCK HOLDING AND NEARBY MARKET DISTANCE......... 31
FIGURE 4: PATTERN OF TOTAL RAINFALL AND RAINFALL ANOMALY AT MILLE WOREDA AND
THE NEARBY WOREDAS FOR THE LAST THREE TO FOUR DECADES .......................................... 34
FIGURE 5: TRENDS OF AVERAGE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT GEWANE AND DUBTI FROM
1981-2010 ......................................................................................................................... 35
FIGURE 6: AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AT THE STUDY AREA FOR THE LAST THREE
CONSECUTIVE YEARS.......................................................................................................... 36
FIGURE 7: MONTHLY MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY AT MILLE
WOREDA............................................................................................................................ 37
FIGURE 8: FOCUS GROUP DISCUSSIONS AT DIYLENNA GIRARO AND SENEASINNA KUSURTU
KEBELES............................................................................................................................ 39
FIGURE 9: TYPE AND TOTAL NUMBER OF LIVESTOCK AT MILLE WOREDA IN 2005 ........................ 46
FIGURE 10: NEXUS OF FOOD AID AND RAINFALL ANOMALY........................................................ 52
FIGURE 11: PERCENTAGE NUMBER OF HAZARDS AT THE SAMPLE KEBELES .................................. 62
FIGURE 12: HAZARDS AND CATTLE HOLDING AT THE SAMPLE KEBELES OF THE STUDY AREA ....... 63
FIGURE 13: HAZARDS AND SHOAT HOLDING AT THE SAMPLE KEBELES OF THE STUDY AREA ........ 63
FIGURE 14: HAZARDS AND CAMEL HOLDING AT THE SAMPLE KEBELES OF THE STUDY AREA ........ 64
xi
Dedication
This study dedicated to:-
First and foremost, this research work is dedicated to God Father, Son Jesus Christ
and Holly Spirit, for the mercy He has allotted on me all the time and because He is
my ability to accomplish it competently. It could be accomplished not because of my
ability but by God and for God alone. Glory to be for His Name for Ever and Ever!! To
my local church followers for their presence with me by Prayer day and night by
eternal love of God tirelessly. May God blesses them abundantly
To my exemplary family for their encouragement, patience, understanding, affection,
spiritual strength and prayer, monetary and material support whenever and
wherever needy and through lovely parenting for my education.
To my mother Manjare Boreso and Father Budusa Ware for their memorable role in
my life and path of education in all my education life and it will be for the future too.
To my distinguished darling friend Mintesinot Mekuria for her tireless
encouragement, tolerance, affection and presence with me in prayer, so that this
mission could become a reality. This work is not only my effort but also yours too.
To my younger brothers and sisters for their patience, understanding, affection,
respection, and help whatever it can be tirelessly; especially for Bereket to his talent
and path of great success in his educational life and he could be an example for his
follower in the vicinity and I expect great success from him. May God be with you
entire the path that you have been going!!
To my Batch has been working at different places and contributing their best for the
development of the Ethiopia through whatever they can without saying we have
exhausted.
To all Ethiopians suffering from the problem of poverty, food insecurity, lack of
access to different basic amenities for their day to day life and losing their lives and
livelihoods by the problem of cross cutting issue of climate change. To innocent
Ethiopians who have been perishing their live by the problem of world climate
change.
xii
Acknowledgement
There are many individuals and institutions who contributed towards finalizing my MSc.
thesis study. Without their support, it would not be possible to finalize it.
Firstly, my deepest gratitude goes to my Advisors; Dr. Eneyew Adgo, Professor
Muluneh Yitayew and Phd candidate Adane Tesfaye heartily for their tireless, incredible
and memorable advices. They have contributed significantly to my work through different
ways including provision of valuable materials, revision of my work entirely, showing the
way how to conduct each and every task on the time frame set for it. Moreover, my
gratitude goes to United States Agency for International Development (USAID) for the
commitment to commence program at Bahir Dar University and provision of scholarship
through Arizona University.
Secondly, my warmest appreciation goes to Catholic Organization for Relief and
Development Aid (CORDAID), for all-round financial support, which was very
fundamental to complete this thesis research without suffering. Thus, this work is not
alone the work of researcher, but also the funding agency too. My warmest thanks goes to
Mogess Bekele who was coordinator of CORDAID and Mogess Abebe who is current
coordinator of it for their financial facilitation and urgent response. I would like to express
my gratitude for Support for Sustainable Development (SSD) staff members, namely,
Hussen, Elias and others for the transport service, and other support that they have
provided for me at the time of field work.
Thirdly, I would like to express my heartily thanks to Pastoral, Agriculture and Rural
Development Office (PARDO) staffs of Mille woreda specially, Friew Bekele and Sofia
Awol for their special joyful contribution diligently whatever they can. Also my
appreciation goes to Friews family to the deliverance of dwelling, meal and general
accommodation services with a great heartily enthusiasm and full satisfaction. Thus, I
would like to thank Nesima Awol, Friews wife, heartily for her compassion, heartily and
joyful service that she has provided for me by the all she can afford without hesitating.
Fourthly, my appreciation goes to my friends namely, Misganaw Teshager, Alemayehu
Abraham, Adugna Asresahegn, Assefa Delelegn, Fekadu Paulos, Teshale Shashamo and
xiii
others for their encouragement via different ways at anytime without boring to ask the
progress of my work at day and night.
My praise from soul and flesh goes to God Father, Son Jesus Christ and Holly Spirit,
who has underpinned me, given all the talents, encouragements, motivations and
unfinished deliverances, to finish this study. This is not only my work but God has given
me strength to finalize it in expected time. God is a God of possibility!! Thanks be unto
God for His unspeakable gifts
Markos Budusa Ware
April, 2011
xiv
Abbreviation/acronyms
CARE Career Assistance and Resource for Employment
CCA Climate Change Adaptation
Cordaid Catholic Organization for Relief and Development Aid
CSA Central stastics agency
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
FEWS NET United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine
Early Warning System Network
IISD International Institute for Sustainable Development
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
NGOs Nongovernmental organizations
NMA National Meteorology Agency of Ethiopia
PARDO Pastoralist, Agriculture and Rural Development
PASDEP Plan for Accelerated and Sustainable Development to End Poverty
SCUK Save the Children -UK
SPSS Statistical Package for Social Science
SSD Support for sustainable Development
SSTs Sea surface temperatures
UN United Nations
UNCBD United Nations Convention on Biodiversity Conservation
UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
UNICEF The United Nations Childrens Fund
UNOCHA The Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
xv
IIRR International Institute of Rural Reconstruction
USAID United States Agency for International Development
WFP World Food Program of the United Nations
WHO World Health Organization
IFRC International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Society
RiPPLE Research-inspired Policy and Practice Learning in Ethiopia and the Nile region
1
1. Introduction
1.1. Background of the study
Climate change has worldwide impacts on human population, their livelihoods, food
security and living environment. The impacts of global climate change will be felt across
all economies and societies (Burton et al., 2006). Africa is one of the continents under
pressure from climate stresses and highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change
(UNFCCC, 2007). The risks and impacts of climate change in Africa are increasingly
recognized as significant factors within the agenda of development agencies, particularly
linked with food security, poverty alleviation and sustainable development (Osbahr et al.,
2008).
As researches have shown, climate change impacts in Ethiopia have the potential to
undermine national effort targeted on poverty, food insecurity reduction and achieving
millennium development goals (Aklilu and Alebachew, 2009). Due to combination of
anthropogenic and natural factors the problem of food insecurity has been becoming the
worst in many parts of the country (PANE, 2009a). About fifteen million people are facing
food insecurity that is either chronic or transistor in nature of which six million people are
chronically food insecure; those who lost the capacity to produce or to buy enough food
items to meet their annual food needs even under normal weather and market conditions
(PANE , 2009a). As stated by Deressa et al., (2009) from Ethiopia relatively least-
developed, semiarid, and arid regionsnamely, Afar and Somaliare highly vulnerable
to climate change and consequently to food insecurity. NMA (2007) also argued that arid,
semi-arid and dry sub-humid parts of the country are affected most by drought. In terms of
livelihood approach smallholders rain-fed farmers and pastoralists are found to the most
vulnerable (NMA, 2007). According to FAO (2009) agriculture in Ethiopia is dominated
by subsistence farming, the primary source of livelihoods for the majority of the country;
where the impact of climate change is significant; it can make entire community disable to
lead their day-to-day life smoothly.
2
All human being have been experiencing climate change related bad fortunes whether
developed or developing country they belong to; but developing countries like Ethiopia
have been experiencing it disproportionately. Consequently, this resulted in food
insecurity through causing direct damage on their livelihoods and consequential loss.
Climate change affects all four dimensions of the food security (Schmidhuber and
Tubiello, 2007; Ludi, 2009; Mujer, 2009; WFP et al., 2009). These are: - food production
and availability, stability of food supplies, access to food and food utilization.
In response to these international, national and local institutions and private researchers
have been paying attention to take action on this noticeable climate change impacts that is
increasing from day-to-day on different sectors. To cope with this heightened problem
caused by climate change local community residing in different countries has been
developed different adaptation (coping) strategies. Likewise, the community living in
Ethiopia also has been using different adaptation mechanisms to respond climate change.
This research has intended to identify the impacts of climate change on food security:
adaptation (coping) mechanism community has been developed through their longtime
experience and linking it with climate change disaster risk reduction. Besides,
international community has been taking different actions; proceeding different
international and national conferences; devising climate change reduction policies
although the change/variability has been increasing from day to night.
This study primarily focused on the investigation of impacts of climate change on food
security; adaptation strategies and climate change disaster risk reduction in Mille Woreda
at Afar Regional National State, Ethiopia.
1.2. Statement of the problem
In Ethiopia millions of people have been receiving emergency food aid in each year.
Although thousands of projects have been executed by international and national
institutions and numbers of organizations participating to reduce the problem has been
proliferating, it is not easily curbed so far. Chronic food insecurity has been a defining
feature of the poverty that has affected millions of Ethiopians for decades (Gillingan et al.,
2008). The number of individuals in need of emergency food assistance rose from
approximately 2.1 million people in 1996 to 13.2 million in 2003, before falling back to
3
7.1 million in 2004 (Gillingan et al., 2008). In response to this skyrocket number of people
needs food aid; government of Ethiopia has started as the Business usual Productive
safety net program (PSNP) in 2005. Since then, the number people need emergency food
aid has declined in somewhat even though not as such expected.
Obviously, many factors are responsible for food insecurity in Ethiopia. Among these
factors climate change identified as major client. As clearly cited in different studies,
among seven driving factors (poverty, lack of education, food price increase,
unavailability of employment, failure in property right or entitlement, poor market access
and climate or environmental change) climate change is one and take lions share over the
others (Gregory et al.,2005). Climate change has been imposing significant impacts on
food security, especially in Ethiopia; because livelihood of the community is mainly
dependent on climate variables, profoundly on rainfall and temperature.
The problem of this research is emanated from various factors. These are current observed
variability of rainfall and temperature trends; raising the number of people those who need
food aid, reduction of asset holding and urgency of the climate change issue in the national
and international level. Despite scenario of food insecurity caused directly or indirectly by
climate variability are increasing, there is no documented evidence at the country level as
well as the study site on the effect of climate change on food security. Moreover, seasonal
variation and becoming unsuitable for crop production and livestock husbandry. Change
of agro-ecology suitability for specific livestock and crop to another. Outbreak of different
unusual diseases on both human and livestock population has stimulated researcher to
investigate the impact of climate change on food security.
Although the number of researchers has been increasing from time to time, it was ignored
problem for long period of time. Hence, assessing the impacts of climate change on food
security of households their adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies highlights the
extent of climate change impacts on food security. Moreover, it identifies adaptation
(coping) and disaster risk reduction strategy of the local communities at the study area.
4
Currently, an entire world is affected by climate change induced hazards that are claiming
lives and livelihoods of many people. Ethiopia also has been losing myriad lives through
climate change impact on food security directly or indirectly. In Ethiopia, there are
concrete evidences of climate change as shown and projected by different studies
(McSweeney et al., 2008; Sahle Tefera, 2010; NMA, 2007). This study focuses on the
impact of that change on food security: adaptation (coping) and disaster risk reduction
strategy of the local communities. It attempts to answer the subsequent five fundamental
research questions. These are:-
Are there climate changes in the study area?
What are major impacts of climate change on food security?
What adaptation strategies are common in the study area? Are they
feasible?
Which food security dimensions are susceptible to climate change? Is it
availability, access, utilization or seasonality?
What type of institutions and policy measures should be put in place to
improve climate change adaptation strategies?
1.3. Objectives of the study
1.3.1. General objective
The overall objective of this study was to understand the impacts of climate change on
household food security; identify local climate change adaptation strategies and draw
5
possible recommendations on disaster risk reduction measures at local level, which are
important to devise appropriate local food insecurity reduction policy and sustain
development endeavors.
1.3.2. Specific objectives
To understand variability and trends of climatic variables like rainfall and
temperature at the study area;
To determine impacts of climate change/variability on food security;
To assess local adaptation strategies and their feasibilities;
To look into institutional and policy supports to improve climate change
adaptation;
To draw recommendations of climate change adaptation strategies
1.4. Significance of the study
Although the problems caused by climate change have been increasing in its intensity,
area coverage, magnitude of impacts and being threat to development endeavors, it is not
well investigated. It stands as a major blockade to the efforts targeted to achieve
Millennium Development Goals mainly aimed at eradicating extreme poverty and hunger,
combating communicable and non-communicable diseases and ensuring environmental
sustainability. Hence, this study is essential because it pays attention to the impacts of
climate change on the food security as well as identifies local climate change adaptation
and disaster risk reduction strategies. It is useful to highlight the impacts of climate change
on food security which was overlooked direction for last many decades. This might be
because of day to day changing environment or concern of disciplines and individuals.
Indeed, the number of researchers working on the problem of climate change has been
increasing from time to time; distribution is skewed solely to the direction of water
resource. But there are still few finger counted researchers dealing with the impacts of
climate change on the concept of livelihoods and food security. This study is hoped that it
will be useful not only for the local community, but also to policy makers and other
interested national and international stakeholders. The information generated from the
6
study is expected to fill the gap of existing knowledge about the local level impacts of
climate change on food security; adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies.
The study output will be disseminated and used by various stakeholders who may be
development practitioners, researchers and policy makers. It will also be used as baseline
for the individual researchers interested to conduct their research on the related research
problems for the further. This study is one of the most important that deal with the
problem as such a spatial scale and level of detail. Moreover, it is important to pave the
way for new researchers because the study area is not well researched yet. Therefore, it
provides new insight for concerned organizations/individuals, such as policy makers,
NGO officials and different government sectors dealing with climate change. It will help
to create awareness about the impact of climate change impacts on food security. Lastly, it
will help to identify climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies as
grass root level.
7
2. Literature Review
2.1. An overview of climate change
Nowadays the term climate change has become hot issue in the agenda of development,
poverty reduction, environmental protection and political forums at international, national
and regional level. Climate varies from place to place, depending on latitude, distance to
the sea, vegetation, presence or absence of mountains or other geographical factors (IPCC,
2003). Moreover, it has been stated that climate varies also in time; from season to season,
year to year, decade to decade. Climate change defined as statistically significant
variations of the mean state of the climate or of its variability, typically persisting for
decades or longer (IPCC, 2003).
As evidenced by McSweeney et al. (2008), trend of climate change in Ethiopia is clearly
elucidated as mean annual temperature had increased by 1.3
0
C between 1960 and 2006, an
average rate of 0.28C per decade. The increase in temperature in Ethiopia has been
most rapid in JAS (July, August and September) at a rate of 0.32
0
C per decade. Daily
temperature observations show significantly increasing trends in the frequency of hot days
and much large increasing trends in the frequency of hot nights (McSweeney et al., 2008).
Moreover, McSweeney et al. (2008) stated that the strong inter-annual and inter-decadal
variability in Ethiopias rainfall makes it difficult to detect long-term trends. There is not a
statistically significant trend in observed mean rainfall in any season in Ethiopia
between 1960 and 2006 (McSweeney et al., 2008). In addition to this, McSweeney et al.
(2008) stated that in JAS rainfall observed decreasing in the 1980s have shown recovery in
the 1990s and 2000s. There were insufficient daily rainfall records available to identify
trends in daily rainfall variability.
In Ethiopia, baseline climate was developed using historical data of temperature and
precipitation from 1971- 2000 for selected stations. The country has experienced both dry
and wet years over the last fifty five years. Years like 1952, 1959, 1965, 1972, 1973, 1978,
1984, 1991, 1994, 1999 and 2002 were dry, while 1958, 1961, 1964, 1967, 1968, 1977,
8
1993, 1996, 1998 and 2006 were wet years (NMA, 2007). The climate of Ethiopia is
characterized by high rainfall variability, especially in semi-arid and arid climate of the
country (Sahle Tefera, 2010). Pastoralist and agro-pastoralist areas are highly dependent in
natural pasture and water. The absence of seasonal rainfall is the major cause of drought
for the lowlands of the country. It is therefore, essential to assess rainfall in sufficiently
way to evaluate its influence, especially on different agricultural activities. Rainfall as a
major component of climate is the main natural resource that can be beneficial to every
day human activities in Ethiopia (Sahle Tefera, 2010).
Climate change attributed by using different stastical tools that consider various climatic
elements such as rainfall, temperature, soil moisture and sea level. Externally driven
climate change is detected by applying different statistical methods in independent data
covering many parts of the climate system, including land surface temperature, ocean
surface temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, atmospheric circulation, and variables of
the free atmosphere, such as atmospheric temperature (Air temperature), humidity, and the
outgoing long wave radiation (Aschalew Assefa, 2007). The observed climate changes are
very unlikely to be due only to natural climate variability, and they are consistent with the
response to anthropogenic and natural external forcing of the climate system that are
simulated with climate models. As study result (Aschalew Assefa, 2007) shows; there is
o An increase in temperature of 0.01
0
C per decade from 1977 to 2006
o An increase in precipitation of 0.03 mm per decade from 1969 to 1998, and a
decrease in soil moisture of 2.26 mm per decade from 1977 to 2006 With regard
to the attribution to the observed changes it is found that the 42% of precipitation
change from 1969 to 1998 is directly associated with CO
2
, soil moisture, and
SSTs (Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans) changes together in space and time
over the region,
o The 69% of temperature change from 1974 to 2003 is directly associated with
CO
2
, soil moisture, and SSTs in space and time over the region.
In the same manner, Aklilu and Alebachew, (2009) stated that the direct effect of climate
change induce changes in rainfall, temperature, soil moisture, and sea level. Farmers
9
identified rainfall, temperature, soil moisture content, humidity and river runoff as
indicators to assess climate change in Ethiopia (http://www.rippleethiopia.org).
2.2. Concept of food security
In 1970 s the concept of food security was mostly concerned with global and national
food supplies (Maxwell and Frankenberger, 1992). In 1980 s it has shifted into access to
food at household and individual level. Thus, food security exists when all people, at all
times have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food
which meets their dietary requirements and food preferences for an active and healthy life
(WFP, 2004). Food security is a concept that has evolved considerably over time.
According to Hoddinott (1999), there are approximately 200 definitions and 450 indicators
of food security. One of the most commonly accepted definitions of food security is
adequate access to food at all times, throughout the year and from year to year (Hoddinott,
1999). In addition to, availability, access and utilization, the concept of food security also
has spatial and temporal dimensions. The spatial dimension refers to the degree of
aggregation at which food security is being considered. It is possible to analyze food
security at the global, continental, national, sub-national, village, household, or individual
level (Hoddinott, 1999). For the sake of this study households were used as the unit of
analysis.
Various factors are responsible to food security. Climate variation (change) is one of
several interacting and driving factors that affect food security (Gregory et al., 2005).
These are climate change, poor market access, failure in property right (entitlement),
unavailability of employment, food price increase, lack of education and poverty.
Typically, reliance on purchased food increases in drought years due to losses in food
production leading to an increase in poverty due to the synergistic action of other drivers
such as rising food prices and unemployment (Gregory et al., 2005). Our country,
Ethiopia, heavily dependence on rain-fed agriculture, and its geographical location and
topography in combination with low adaptive capacity entail a high vulnerability to
adverse impacts of climate change (Arndt et al., 2009).
10
2.3. Impacts of climate change on food security
IPCCs regional review of the impacts of climate change has identified three vulnerable
areas in Ethiopia; such as food security, water resources and health (IPCC, 2001). Climate
change may affect food systems in several ways ranging from direct effects on crop
production (changes in rainfall leading to drought or flooding, or warmer or cooler
temperatures leading to changes in the length of growing season), to changes in market
food prices and supply chain infrastructure (Gregory et al., 2005). NAPA identified five
major adverse impacts of climate variability (change) in Ethiopia of which, food insecurity
arising from occurrence of drought and flood is one and the first (NMA, 2007). Moreover,
rising temperatures and increasing climate variability is already imposing a significant
challenge to Ethiopia by affecting food security, water and energy supply, poverty
reduction and sustainable development efforts (PANE, 2009b).
It was evidenced through the desk review that one of the important causes for vulnerability
of Ethiopia to climate variability and change is very high dependence on rainfall patterns
and rain-fed farming for food production, apart from many others. The overall
performance of the economy depends on the agricultural production and climate change
severely impacting agriculture and livestock sectors (PANE, 2009b). Agricultural
production and food security (including access to food) in many African countries and
regions are likely to be severely compromised by climate change and climate variability
(Boko et al., 2007). Changing temperatures and weather patterns create favorable
conditions for the emergence of new pests and diseases that affect animals, trees and crops
(WFP et al., 2009).
In Ethiopia climate change affect all four dimensions of food security such as availability,
access, stability and utilization as the following manner (Schmidhuber and Tubiello, 2007;
Ludi 2009; WFP et al., 2009 and Mujer, 2009).
Food production and availability: climate change affects food production directly
through changes in agro-ecological conditions and indirectly by affecting growth and
11
distribution of incomes, and thus demand for agricultural product, changes in land
suitability, potential yields and production of current cultivars are likely.
Stability of food supplies: Weather conditions are expected to become more variable than
at present, with increasing frequency and severity of extreme events (drought and flood).
Greater fluctuation in crop yields and local food supplies can adversely affect the stability
of food supplies. Also climatic fluctuations will be most pronounced in semi-arid and sub-
humid regions like Afar and Somali and are likely to reduce crop yields and livestock
numbers and productivity.
Access to food: Access to food refers to the ability of individuals, households and
communities to purchase food in sufficient quantities and quality. Possible food price
increases and declining rates of income growth resulting from climate change may worsen
the situation.
Food utilization: Climate change may initiate a vicious circle where infectious diseases,
including water-borne diseases, cause or compound hunger, which, in turn, makes the
affected population more susceptible to those diseases. Results may include declines in
labour productivity and an increase in poverty, morbidity and mortality.
Climate is a key natural resource on which the others depend. It influences food
production, water and energy availability (NMA, 2007). In pastoralist regions, due to
climate change per capital livestock holding, livestock population, the livestock population
tends to decline with shrinkage and degradation of the range resources and frequency of
recurrent drought (Beruk Yemane, 2003). Moreover, Beruk Yemane (2003) stated that the
failure of the karma season rains (June- September) in pastoral regions may cause severe
food insecurity.
The situation in Mille Woreda is also worse faced with serious problem of food shortage
that directly or indirectly caused by climate change (PANE, 2008; 2009a). All rural
Kebeles encompassed in the woreda are under food aid program (PANE, 2009a). On-
going emergency food and non-food assistance (though inadequate and poorly targeted) is
helping vulnerable populations to meet consumption deficits and helping pastoralist to fill
household food gaps that would normally be filled by livestock and livestock products
12
otherwise (FEWS NET, 2006). As different scholars believed climate change and market
conditions has been aggravating the situation of food security at the woreda. Moreover, it
bears severe water and pasture shortages and health problem to both animals and human.
Food aid requirement is inversely related with the amount of rainfall (Figure, 1).
Generally, as the amount of rainfall increase, food aid requirement decrease.
Figure 1: Nexus of people need food aid with rainfall amount in Ethiopia
Source: World Bank (unpublished)
2.4. Trends of climate change impact and livelihood vulnerabilities
According to Abate (2009), the increasing trend of climate change and its impact on
livelihood is exacerbating the vulnerability to different socio-economic activities of the
society. Likewise, Aklilu and Alebachew (2009) stated that high dependence on natural
resources and climate sensitive livelihoods like rain-fed agriculture coupled with existence
of rampant poverty put Ethiopia in the most vulnerable position. In addition, Osbahr et al.
(2008) stated that people are dependent both directly and indirectly on the surrounding
natural resources, and consequently their livelihoods are closely connected to the
13
variability and productivity of that natural resource base. Subsequently, according to IISD
(2003), climate-induced changes to resource flows can fundamentally affect the viability
of the livelihoods of the poor. Therefore, a change to resource flow is critical for
livelihood sustainability. In generally, impact of climate change not only depends on the
variation of rainfall and temperature but also the socio-economic system of the affected
community to cope up with the impact of climate change.
Those people who have been living at different place might use different adaptation
(coping) strategies. As Abate Feyisa (2009), stated the current local coping strategies of
the study area are saving, selling firewood, mobility, social interconnectedness and
diversification of their livelihoods. Coping strategy refers short term action taken to reduce
suffering where as adaptation is long term action to live accepting the change as a normal
condition. In general, adaptation refers adjustments in ecological, social, or economic
systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli and their effects or impacts
(Burton et al., 2006). Adaptation to climate change has the potential to substantially
reduce many of the adverse impacts of climate change and enhance beneficial impacts
though neither without cost nor without leaving residual damage. It is a part and parcel of
climate change disaster risk reduction.
When extreme events such as drought and flood occurs, people suffer injuries, incur
losses, habitats and built environments are damaged. Socio-economic systems are
therefore sensitive to the frequent, intensity and persistence of these conditions, as well as
potential changes in long-term trends.
The study area is vulnerable to drought since the livelihood is highly sensitive and
dependent on climatic elements. Drought is the single most imperative climate related
natural hazard has been impacting the study area from time to time. Drought occurs
anywhere in the world and other part of Ethiopia but its damage is not as severe as in the
pastoral area such as Mille due to low adaptive capacity (NMA, 2007). Recurrent drought
events in the past have resulted in huge loss of life and property as well as migration of
people (NMA, 2007). Flood also has been incurring considerable losses in different
14
regions of the country and 2006 flood of Dire Dawa and South Omo is current bad
memory in the community.
2.5. Institutional and policy supports to improve climate change adaptation
Climate change adaptation needs both vertical and horizontal synergies of various
stakeholders as far as planned to reduce the impacts of climate change in long-term and
achieve millennium development goals in the time frame set. It is not only the mandate of
one single institution, sector and individual; but also it necessitates interagency effort of
various sectors, institutions, and individuals. Public policy is important to facilitate
adaptation efforts that are going on to alleviate the vicious cycle of climate change
problem. International community has been made significant progress in funding
adaptation programs within the UNFCC (Adger et al., 2007).
Although the result was not as such expected, myriad international conferences has been
held and conventions adopted during past few decades so as to alleviate the problems have
been caused by climate change. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
change (UNFCC) is one of key convention aimed at preventing dangerous interference
with the climate system and hence the stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions at
acceptable levels within a specified timeframe. This convention set no mandatory limit on
greenhouse gas emissions from individual nations and contains no enforcement provision
(Akililu and Alebachew, 2009).
In 1997 other treaty come into place so called Kyoto protocol and ratified by 182
countries with the main objective of providing mandatory limits on greenhouse gas
emissions that the countries are obliged to reduce. The Kyoto protocol commits
industrialized countries to reduce emission of six greenhouse gases at least by 5.2% from
1990 level between, 2008-2012. Climate change was acknowledged (after tough
negotiations) as an underlying treat in relation to disasters in the Hyogo Framework for
Action (HFA) 200515, the outcome strategy of the World Conference on Disaster
Reduction, held in Kobe, Japan, on 18 22 January 2005. HFA has identified five priority
15
areas in course of DRR that was the gap of Yokohama strategy and plan of action for safer
world. Five priority areas for actions in HFA are:-
1. Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national and a local priority with a strong
institutional basis for implementation;
2. Identify, assess, and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning;
3. Use knowledge, innovation, and education to build a culture of safety and
resilience at all levels;
4. Reduce the underlying risk factors;
5. Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response at all levels.
These five priority areas identified by HFA have taken into consideration reduction of the
impacts of climate change and climate change induced extreme events like drought, flood
and extreme heat. Each priority areas have common with climate change adaptation.
HFA priority areas directly take into consideration climate change and climate change
induced hazards. First priority, risk reduction to climate change also need collaborative
effort of international, national, regional and local institutions to reduce impacts of current
climate change and identify, prepare, plan for future potential climate change impacts.
Thus, international community has been investing considerable efforts in enhancing
capacity of developing countries, that is, through funding NAPA. Second priority, is
conducting climate change indictors analysis to understand the variability, assess
community livelihoods at local level, monitor weekly situation and early warn uncertainty
to local community to reduce potential impacts of climate change. Use local early warning
system locally said to be Daagu (information). Third priority, use indigenous Knowledge,
innovations and education to reduce risk of climate change literally called adaptation to
develop safety culture and to build resilience and adaptive capacity. That is the shadow of
adaptation theory. Forth priority, reducing greenhouse gases and other dimensions of the
vulnerability to climate change. As stated by disaster risk reduction model among three
pillars vulnerability is one and significant component to reduce disaster risk. Fifth priority,
strengthened community adaptive capacity so as to reduce impacts of climate change at all
levels. In general, HFA priority areas are taken into consideration the impacts of current
climate change and future potential impacts.
16
Climate change has been imposing unprecedented impacts and setting back the progress of
attainting sustainable development and Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The
declaration of MDGs has taken into account climate change as its usual business. Thus,
MDG-7 states that ensuring environmental sustainability in the progress of attaining goals.
This shows us MDG has paid considerable attention to current climate change issue.
In the case of Ethiopia, there are already a number of existing national policy initiatives,
sectoral policies, programs and strategies that may directly or indirectly address climate
change adaptation. Accordingly, the most important policy and program documents that
have relevance to climate change adaptation include Plan for Accelerated and Sustainable
Development to end Poverty (PASDEP), Environmental Policy of Ethiopia, Agriculture
and Rural Development Policy and Strategy, Water Resources Management Policy, Health
Sector Development Policy and Program, National Policy on Disaster Prevention and
Preparedness, National Policy on Biodiversity Conservation and Research, Science and
Technology Policy, Population Policy and National Agricultural Research Policy and
Strategy (NMA, 2007).
Ethiopian government has been put primary endeavors on promoting rural and agricultural
development and reduction of hunger and poverty that is stated in MDG 1. Moreover,
NMA (2007) stated that climate change and adaptation issues are often treated indirectly
in sector specific policies and programmes since climate impacts are considered as a sub-
component of the overall development goal particularly in relation to natural resources and
environmental protection. Currently, Ethiopia has moved one step forward in this regard
and endorsed National Adaptation Program for Action (NAPA) since 2007. In the mandate
of Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) regions, zones and woredas also have been
developing their own local adaptation program for action. On the other hand, a workshop
on climate issues in Ethiopia held in late 2007 by the Forum for Environment has made a
substantial declaration to the government on climate issues.
17
Table 1: Relevant policies, strategies and programs for climate change adaptation in
Ethiopia
Policies /
programmes /
strategies
Relevance /
complementarities
Remarks
Most policies,
strategies &
programmes
Promoting sustainable
development, sustainable use
of biological diversity &
reducing climate-related
vulnerability are common
objectives
Achieving sustainable development in
sectors affected by drought is among the
UNCCDs areas of emphasis, while
sustainable use of biological diversity is
among the UNCBDs areas of emphasis
EPE
Biodiversity
Conservation
Policy
Agricultural
Policy
Strength & resilience of
ecosystems, thereby helping
to reduce the economic and
social vulnerability of local
people
Both the EPE and the UNFCCC aim at
ensuring sustainable economic
development through mitigation of
adverse climate-change impacts
Rural and
Agricultural
Policy
Safety-Net
Programme
PASDEP/FSS
Focus on rehabilitation and
reclamation of degraded land,
reforestation, and
conservation, management
and protection of natural
resources
Community-based participatory
projects/ activities to ensure food self-
sufficiency, increase farm production
and reduce vulnerability through
transfer of income, household asset
building, and public works to develop
natural resource base and productivity
PASDEP
EPE
Biodiversity
Conservation
Policy
NARP
Encourage activities that
reduce poverty/improve
livelihoods and
simultaneously conserve and
protect the ecosystem
Projects that introduce & propagate
plants with high commercial value to
improve income/livelihoods through
benefit sharing arrangements involving
local communities using indigenous or
exotic plants, herbal medicinal plants
and plants used to extract essential oils
show some potential.
Rural and
Agricultural
Policy
PASDEP
Safety-Net
Programme
FSS
Drought-resistant plants and
crop species easily adaptable
to areas with moisture stress
and interventions to
rehabilitate and maintain
biodiversity of dry-land and
fragile ecosystems have
complementarities with Multi-
lateral Environmental
Agreements (MEAs)
Poverty alleviation and improving
livelihoods are among the strategies of
PASDEP and the agricultural policy.
Shifting/ diversifying crops and
selecting drought-resistant crops/
varieties are strategies to attain food
self-sufficiency and improve household
livelihoods in drought-prone areas with
high climate variability.
18
EPE
PASDEP
UN conventions and other
MEAs that emphasize
environmental information
network and capacity building
as well as the need to create
awareness about impacts of
climate change and coping
mechanisms are in conformity
with policies/ strategies/
programmes, particularly the
EPE.
Promoting projects that target capacity
building to ameliorate the impacts of
climate change on livelihoods and
national economy. Mainly information
network on climate & biodiversity;
environmental forums & institutional
capacity-building are among projects
that help develop national capacity-
building & NAPA.
Source: NMA (2007) pp, 35
2.5. Analytic framework
In this research, disaster risk reduction model was used to analyze the data collected from
both secondary and primary sources. Disaster risk is typically understood as a function of
hazard and the vulnerability of a population to that hazard (and similarly, their ability to
adapt the hazard). This relationship is expressed as follow: Risk= F (Hazard,
Vulnerability/Adaptive Capacity). It was developed by Blaikie, Canon, Davis and Wisner
(1994). According to this model disaster risk is socially constructed phenomenon. Thus, it
can be applied directly in risk analysis to understand the multiple elements creating
disaster risk at any level.
Again this model is base for PAR (Pressure and Release) model. For the purposes of food
security, this equation is useful for organizing and linking the information required to
provide decision makers with the answers they need to their food security questions. It
helps analysts to identify multiple geographicallyspecific causes of potential food crises
and to determine when these are likely to lead to particularly negative outcomes. The
Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) framework, expressed in this way, is powerful because it
helps us differentiate between cause and effect. Risk is the effect or outcome we are
measuring, specifically the risk of food insecurity. There are two factors that cause this
outcome: the external cause, which is the hazard (climate change); and the internal cause,
which is a combination of peoples vulnerability to that hazard, and their capacity to adapt
it.
19
In food security analysis, a household may be vulnerable to a particular hazard, but not
necessarily at risk of food insecurity. Households level of vulnerability to a particular
hazard will vary depending on how the household meets its basic needs, which is related
to its livelihood system i.e., the assets or capitals (social, natural, physical, financial,
political, and human) available to it. For instance, if a household meets these needs by
relying primarily on crop production, then a staple food price shock will not necessarily
put this household at risk of food insecurity a climate change, on the other hand. Second,
the magnitude of the hazard is important to consider, as there are variations within each
year and from year to year. Third, even if a household is vulnerable to a hazard, it may still
be able to effectively respond, or adapt, by increasing reliance on livelihood strategies not
affected by that hazard, or by drawing down on stocks or savings. So, the risk of food
insecurity depends not only on the households vulnerability to climate change, but also
the magnitude of it and the adaptive capacity of households.
Household Economy Approach (HEA) is organized around these central concepts in the
Disaster Risk Reduction ( DRR) framework. HEA provides a practical means for making
the DRR framework operational because it links each of the concepts to one another
(USAID, 2009). The vulnerability and coping information is found in the livelihood
baseline data sets (including assets, sources of food and income, expenditure patterns, and
coping capacities), collected and organized by livelihood integration unit and quantified
by wealth group. The hazard information is derived from climate change, production,
and marketrelated information and analysis. In HEA, the risk assessment or outcome
analysis combines both sets of information in order to judge the likeliness of a severe
gap in household food access.
Risk = f (Hazard, Vulnerability/adaptive Capacity)
HEA Livelihoods Framework
The Household Economy Approach is an analytical framework used to examine household
operations how households across the wealth spectrum, source food and income, their
expenditure patterns, social relationships, and how they cope with hazards (USAID, 2009).
The analytical process involves six steps, beginning with a general disaggregating or
20
zoning of geographic areas according to similar livelihood patterns and access to markets.
Step two involves classifying households into common wealth groups using local
determinants and quantifying asset ownership. Once the wealth groups are determined,
focus group interviews are conducted with each in step three. This involves triangulating
food access, income and expenditures, allowing for infield analysis. Food access is
calculated as a percentage of minimum energy requirements, taken as an average food
energy intake of 2100 kcals per person per day. Annual household income is captured and
balanced with expenditures. The fourth step in HEA involves analyzing the initial impact
of shocks on household livelihoods for different wealth groups in a livelihood zone. Next,
an analysis of households adaptation capacity is incorporated into the problem (shock)
equation. Once the problem or problems have been defined, and the ability of households
to adapt on their own has been analyzed, the final picture is projected. This last and crucial
step in the analytical framework translates the shock into food security - that allows
decision makers to take appropriate action.
For this study adaptation theory was used. In generally, this theory shows humans
creativity, innovative capacity to abide with changing environment. Adaptation theory
states that change and extreme transformation have been part and parcel of humanitys
evolutionary history (Holling et al., 2008). As climate change persists peoples adaptive
capacity have made it possible not only to persist passively, but also create and innovate
when limits are reached. For any change people innovate the ways how to survival with
specified harsh conditions. Adaptation theory developed through assimilation and
integration of various theories that had been emerged through past pipeline. It is simply
integration of dynamic change across space from local to regional or global on one hand
and over time from months to Millennia on the other.
21
3. Research Methodology
3.1. Description of the study area
Afar National Regional state is one of the four major pastoral regions in Ethiopia located
in North Eastern part of the country (Philpott et al., 2005). The region is sub-divided into
five administrative zones, which are further subdivided into 33 Woredas
1
. The regional
population is estimated to be 1.2 million of which 90% are pastoralists and 10% are agro-
pastoralists (Philpott et al., 2005). The majority of the land is rocky and the annual
precipitation is low (150-500 mm/annum) which makes crop cultivation unsuitable in the
region. People in the region therefore depend mainly on livestock husbandry as means of
their livelihood, which is highly susceptible to the climate change directly or indirectly.
Livelihoods that do not have a diversified asset base are the most vulnerable to the impacts
of climate change (http://www.rippleethiopia.org).
Drought has been become a common phenomenon in the Afar region. It has been causing
very serious impairment on livestock production, the main source of livelihood for the
pastoralists in the Afar region and consequently on their food security. During the past 5
years, for instance, the region was hit by two severe drought events (Philpott et al., 2005).
The drought in 2002/03 affected all 33 Woredas in the region and 2004/05 drought
affected most of zone 1, 2 and 4 (Philpott et al., 2005).
Mille Woreda is named after the Mille River, a tributary of the Awash River, which flows
through the woreda (http://www.esgpip.net/Afar.php, 13 August 2010). Mille woreda is
one of the ancient woreda included in zone-1 (Awsi Rassu zonal administration), which is
the largest zone of the region, covers 36% of the area in the region. The total land
coverage of the woreda is about 673, 91083 hectare and it shares boundary in the North
Chifra, in the South Gewane and Telalak, in the East Dubti and Adar in the West. The
woreda encompasses total of eleven kebeles in which one kebele located in town and the
rest ten are rural Kebeles (woreda Pastoralist, Agriculture and Rural Development Office).
The woreda has endowed with two perennial Rivers, which are known as Awash and Mille

1
Woreda is administrative unit in Ethiopia literally known as district
22
Rivers, and other numerous seasonal Rivers that flow in seven different Kebeles in the
woreda.
Figure 2: Location Map of Afar National Regional State and Mille woreda (source: BoFED,
2009)
Mille Woreda
23
Based on summary and stastical report of the 2007 population and housing census, the
woreda has a total population of 92,778 (50,996 males and 41,782 females) of which
14,206 are urban dwellers (CSA, 2008). Since 2008 Mille Woreda has divided into two
independent Woredas such as Mille and Adar. From the former Mille about 19,270 people
were chronically food insecure (PARDO, unpublished). Adar Woreda has taken seven
Kebeles from former Mille woreda with 8012 chronically food insecure people. Currently
about 11,258 people are chronically food insecure at the Woreda. Woreda office of
Disaster Prevent and Food Security has organized them under PSNP, as about 9,900 has
been benefiting from public work (food for work programm) and the rest 1,358 from
direct support (PARDO, unpublished).
3.2. Research design and sampling methods
This research is premeditated for the purpose of identifying local climate change
indicators; assess impact of climate change on food security; and identify adaptation and
disaster risk reduction strategies. It would also seek to answer the following research
questions. What are possible impacts of climate change on food security? What adaptation
strategies are common in the study area? Which food security dimension(s) is more
susceptible to climate change? Is it availability, access, seasonality or utilization? To
achieve these objectives and answer these questions it was used different research
methods. It focuses on impacts of climate change on food security: adaptation and risk
reduction measures as research problem and impacts of other factors than climate change
on food security used as control group. The mixed research approaches were employed in
this research to achieve designed goals and answer research questions. This was done,
through rural livelihood identification using Community-based Risk Screening Tool
Adaptation and Livelihoods (CRiSTAL) tool. Climate change impact on food availability
is implicated from herd size, herd composion, water and pasture availability. The impact
of climate change on food access depend on market access, distance from market, term of
trade (ToT). Adaptation strategies of local community in the study area to climate change
were identified using household interview.
Purposive sampling was employed to select the sample woreda from 33 Woredas in the
Afar National Regional State. Mille woreda was selected as the study area, which is
24
drought prone in the region for long years. Hence, it is considered to be susceptible
Woredas for climate change impacts. The woreda encompasses ten rural pastoral kebeles
which are entirely relied on livestock husbandry as their main livelihood and one town
kebele. Among these eleven kebeles encompassed in the woreda three kebeles (27%) were
purposively selected for the study based on prevalence of the problem, recurrence of
drought and flood hazards, availability of cordaid partner NGOs and recommendation of
woreda administration. Preliminary discussions were made with Woreda administration
and Pastoral, Agriculture and Rural Development Office (PARDO) before kebele
selection. Purposively three Kebeles
2
were selected based on recurrence of climate change
induced hazards such as drought and flood; prevalence of chronic food insecurity. 28, 30,
38 households were selected for households questionnaire from Gessiyonna Leas,
Seniasinna Kusurtu and Diylenna Giraro kebele respectively as proportional to their total
population. Selection of household was based on their age and long year residence in the
study area- above 30 years. The intention was to generate long-term information on the
impact of climate change on food security at household level.
3.3. Data sources and collection tools
Both primary and secondary data were employed for the study. Primary data were
collected using household interview, focus group discussion, and key informant interview
with knowledgeable people and civil servants in different sectors such as Woreda Disaster
Risk `Management and Food Security Sector (WDRMFSS), Pastoral, Agriculture and
Rural Development Office (PARDO), Woreda Health Office (WHO), Kebele leaders.
Questionnaires were first prepared, tested and adjusted before wider use for interview.
Community calendars were constructed to show the peak hunger period and seasonal
change of food availability in the study area. In addition, Field observation was used to
collect primary data by direct observation from the study area.
Secondary data were obtained from different government offices through official request.
Rainfall (Precipitation) and Temperature data were obtained from National Meteorological

2
Lowest administrative unit in Ethiopia some times said to village and sometimes it may include more than
one village
25
Agency of Ethiopia, Samara branch, which were collected from three stations (Mille,
Gewane and Dubti). Demographic and livestock population data were obtained from CSA.
Number of people needed emergency food aid, food insecure people in each kebele, and
number of productive safety net beneficiaries in each kebele were acquired from
WDRMFSS. Published and unpublished literature, policy documents either national or
international were collected from different national and regional sectors.
3.4. Data analysis methods
Data were collected from both secondary and primary sources qualitative and
quantitative in type. It was analyzed using both qualitative and quantitative analysis
methods. Quantitative data were analyzed using Stastical Package for Social Science
(SPSS) version 17.0 and Microsoft Offices Excel 2007 to summarize and analyze trends,
percentages, radar, line and column charts. Qualitative data collected from household
survey, focus group discussion and key informant interview were analyzed using
CRiSTAL version 4.0. CRiSTAL is Computer: Excel-based program for analysis (IISD et
al., 2009). It is a decision support tool developed jointly by the International Institute for
Sustainable Development (IISD), the International Union for Conservation of Nature
(IUCN), the Stockholm Environment Institute in Boston (SEI-US) and the Swiss
Foundation for Development and International Cooperation (Intercooperation). It is drawn
from the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) model and the Sustainable Livelihoods
Framework (SLF). It aims to provide better understanding on climate change induced
hazards, peoples livelihoods, coping mechanisms, livelihood assets and climate change
impacts in the study area.
3.6. Scope and Limitation of the study
Geographically, the study is bounded in Afar National Regional State of Ethiopia, which
has been identified as the most vulnerable to climate change. Purposively Mille Woreda
was selected considering prevalence of the problem and presence of cordaid partner NGO.
26
Three Kebeles namely, Gesiyonna Laas, Diylenna Giraro and Seneasinna Kusurtu were
selected purposively in consultation of Woreda administration and PARDO to represent
total study area based on prevalence of chronic food insecurity, recurrence of drought and
flood and number of people requires emergency food aid. With regard to theme, the
research has focused on impacts of climate change on food security of households their
adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies at the study area. The time series for data
analysis was 48 years bounded between 1963 and 2010 for Mille station and 30 years
bounded between 1981 and 2010 for Dubti and Gewane. Due to unavailability of
maximum and minimum long-term record at the study area; records of two neighboring
Woredas such as Mille and Dubti were considered and interpolated to the study area.
Besides, there were no sufficient time series data on herd size, price, relief requirement,
and total population of the kebele and so on. Logistically, the study was challenged by
various factors as many studies conducted by different researchers have been facing
different challenges. Some of the limitations at the time of primary data collection were
language barrier, culture of the local community to expose information such as insisting to
tell ones livestock holding, hiding family size and annual income. This, nonetheless,
doesnt limit the relevance and generalizability of the finding of the study to other nearby
Woredas, Kebeles and community under similar settings.
27
4. Result and Discussion
This chapter presents and discusses in detail about evidences of the climate change and
variability based on historical data records of rainfall and temperature, and community
perception about climate change/variability, climate change induced hazards and impacts
of climate change on food security; local climate change adaptation and disaster risk
reduction strategies. It was used data obtained from household survey, historical record of
rainfall and temperature of the study area and two nearby Woredas from National
Meteorology Agency of Ethiopia, Samara branch. Qualitative information generated from
various focus group discussions and key informant interviews were analyzed by using
CRiSTAl version 4.0. Moreover, published and unpublished federal, regional and local
documents were reviewed and some important websites were also browsed.
4.1. Characteristics of respondents
From the total respondents included in the sample, 21% were female and the rest 79%
were male. Age distribution of the respondents ranges from 30 to 70 years old. Relatively
half of the respondents were below 40 years and about 87% were below 50 years old.
Moreover, as shown in the Table 2, about 96% of households were married and the rest
4% were single due to various reasons. More than three-fourth (76%) household heads
were illiterate with no formal as well as informal education. Hence, they cant read and
write. Only 24% of households can read and write from the sample households. Illiteracy
rate is highest (27%) in Seneasnna Kusurtu kebele and lowest (22%) in Diylenna Giraro.
28
Table 2: characteristics of the respondent households in the study site
Name of Kebele
Total N=95
Seneasnna
kusurtu N=30
Gesiyonna
Leas N=28
Diyillenna
Giraro N=37
sex of
respondent
Male 24(25%) 19(20%) 32(34%) 75(79%)
Female 6(6%) 9(10%) 5(5%) 20(21%)
Total 30(31%) 28(30%) 37(39%) 95(100%)
Marital status
of the
household head
Married
28(29.5%) 28(29.5%) 35(36.8%) 91(95.8%)
Single 2(2.1%) 0 2(2.1%) 4(4.2%)
Total 30(31.6%) 28(29.5%) 37(38.9%) 95(100%)
education level
of the
respondent
Illiterate 26(27.4%) 25(26.3%) 21(22.1%) 72(75.8%)
1-4 grade 2(2.1%) 2(2.1%) 14(14.7%) 18(18.9%)
5-10 grade 2(2.1%) 1(1.1%) 2(2.1%) 5(5.3%)
Total 30(31.6%) 28(29.5%) 37(38.9%) 95(100%)
Average
Livestock
holding of the
respondents
Cattle 9 1 10 20
Camel 8 5 7 20
Shoat
36 20 19 75
Source: own field survey 2011
29
Table 3: Range of age, house household size and annual income of the respondents
(N=95)
Age range of the respondents Range of household size Range of income per
HH
Range count range count range count
30-39 45 1-3 5 1000-2499 15
40-49 38 4-6 28 2500-3999 33
50-59 6 7-9 32 4000-5499 17
60-69 5 10-12 25 5500-6999 12
70-79 1 13-15 5 7000-8499 10
NR 8
Grand total 95 95 95
________________________________________________________________________
___
Average age Average annual income Average HH size Average M. distance
________________________________________________________________________
___
40 4064 7.7 25
Source: Own field survey, 2011
Note: NR indicates no response
The purpose of selecting this age range was to generate reliable information for the study.
Majority of respondents were belongs to 30-49 to 30- 49 age range. Moreover, household
size at the study area ranges from 1-15. Average household size of the study area was
about seven (7). Lastly, annual income of households at the study area ranges from about
1000-8500. Most of the sample households earn 2500 up to 4000 Ethiopian Birr (ETB) per
annum.
As plainly revealed in Table 3, average annual income of the sample households was
about 4,000 ETB. The main source of income is selling their livestock. Respondents from
all sample Kebeles were bitterly complained that they have no enough income to cover
30
their food expenses at the current market price so that government and non-government
organization should have to assist them. Average distance to (from) nearby market is 25
km and respondents estimated it would take 4 hours to reach the nearby market on
average. At the study area land is communally owned by clan not by privately individuals.
The study found that community at the sample Kebeles was entirely engaged on livestock
husbandry. Livestock holding varies from kebele to kebele.
Main livelihood in the study area is pastoralism. It has been affected significantly by
climate change and recurrent climate change induced hazards. Livelihood of local
community is based on traditional livestock husbandry. Cattle, camel and shoats are
common type of livestock at the study area. The study found that the nearby market
distance has an impact on livestock holding (Figure, 3). Livestock holding directly related
with the distance of nearby market. As the distance of nearby market increase, livestock
holding increase. This is may be due to those who have access to nearby market sell their
livestock as per their needs. Those who are distant from nearby market even in needy time
have no access to market to sell their livestock.
31
Figure 3: Relationship between livestock holding and nearby market distance
Source: Own field survey 2011
4.2. Climate change implications
IPCC defined climate change as the variability of climatic elements mainly rainfall and
temperature over extended period of time (decades or more). The temperature is highly
associated with altitude of the area. Mille woreda is found on average 488 meters above
sea level. This may affect the amount of annual rainfall and temperature. In the study area
average annual temperature ranges from 20
0
c to 42
0
c the hottest months are from
February- September, with maximum temperature might be more than 42
0
c. Moreover, the
amount of annual rainfall of the woreda varies from season to seasons, time to time and
place to place. As community group discussion indicated, rainfall has shown noticeable
spatial and temporal variation at the study area. Seasonal amount of rainfall at the study
area basically depends on strong airflow which is literally called inter tropical convergent
zone (ITCZ) (McSweeney et al., 2008). The woreda is highly characterized by low
rainfall. As found from analysis of Meteorology data, the annual rainfall has been received
at the study area is less than 300 mm in average. NMA (2007) stated that mean annual
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Seneasnna kusurtu
Gesiyonna Leas Diyillenna Giraro
Relation of livestock holding and average market distance
Cattle Camel Shoat M distance
32
rainfall distribution over the country is characterized by large spatial variation which
ranges from about 2000 mm over some pocket areas in the Southwest to less than 250 mm
over the Afar.
4.2.1. Rainfall variability and trends
For this study purpose, data were used from three meteorology stations such as Mille,
Dubti and Gewane. This was done for the rationale that data from station at the study
woreda was not complete; there was no long-term maximum and minimum temperature
record. Thus, stations at two neighboring Woredas such as Dubti and Gewane were
considered and interpolated. As shown from Figures 4, rainfall anomaly
3
and trends of
total rainfall at Mille woreda has shown changing scenario from year to year. Based on the
analysis of historical data, total amount of rainfall shown a decreased trend and rainfall
anomaly has shown relatively constant trend for the last few decades. Negative anomaly
values of the study area have been concomitant with the Ethiopian year of drought and
famine.
The woreda characterized by arid and semi-arid climate with low and short duration
annual rainfall. It also characterized by bi-modal rainy season. Kiremt (Karma) is main
rainy season which extends from June to September and Belg (Sugum) is short rain season
from February to May. Seldom, at May- there may be short (2-3days) rain shower
(Dadaa). As the study found the average annual rainfall in the study area ranges from 60 to
660 mm, with soaring temporal and spatial variations. Most of the time, the woreda has
been suffering from recurrent drought and has been encountering various type of climate
change induced hazard impacts. Furthermore, this poor performance of the rainy seasons
will have negative implication on the availability of pasture and water and this in turn on
overall food security situation of the pastoral communities inhabit at the woreda.
In the same manner, historical record data analysis in Dubti and Gewane Woredas has
shown decreased and increased trends of total rainfall respectively from year to year over

3
The anomaly is calculated as deviation between the annual rainfall for each year and long-term annual
mean divided by long-term mean ( =


100%
.
33
the last three decades. However, historical analysis of total rainfall has shown increasing
trend at Gewane, anomaly of rainfall has shown exceedingly increased trend with
coefficient of variation 31%. But rainfall anomaly at Dubti woreda has shown relatively
constant trend with coefficient of variation 20%.
Rainfall patterns are perceived to have changed over the past few decades, particularly in
terms of timing and duration at the study area. The frequency of drought is viewed as
increasing particularly over the past two decades. According to (EPA, unpublished) some
people argued that the changes have become more noticeable since the major famine in
1984; years of good rainfall are seen as distant memory. EPA also stated that except in
more dry years, changes in the seasonality, distribution and regularity of rainfall were
more of a concern than the overall amount of rainfall. The main rainy season is also seen
as becoming progressively shorter it now starts later and ceases earlier than it used to be
and the rain in general are becoming more unpredictable. As shown in the coefficient of
variation (CV) of the following calculations:
=


100%, =
120
291
100, = 41%
, =


100% , = 29%
, =


100%, = 31%
Coefficient of variation (CV) is the ratio of standard deviation (SD) to the mean,
multiplied by 100 percent that is =


1000%. CV states that how
large and small standard deviation comparison with mean. Larger CV value implies that
larger variability and vice versa. From above calculation we can conclude that rainfall
variability is high at Mille followed by Gewane and Dubti respectively. In general, high
coefficient of variation depicts high rainfall variability and vice versa.
Figure 4: Pattern of total rainfall and rainfall anomaly at
Woredas for the last three to four decades
Source: analysis of secondary data acquired from NMA of Ethiopia
(2011)
N.B: year 1983 and 2007 omitted due to lack of full year data at Mille station
y = 0.002x -
R = 0.005
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
1
9
6
3
1
9
6
8
1
9
7
2
1
9
7
7
1
9
8
1
1
9
8
6
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
4
R
a
i
n
f
a
l
l

A
n
n
o
m
a
l
i
t
y

Time in Year
Mille Woreda annual Rainfall Anomaly
compared to 1963-2010 normal
y = -0.001x + 0.019
R = 0.001
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
Rainfall Anomaly at Dubti
y = 0.010x - 0.144
R = 0.069
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
Rainfall anomal at Gewane
34

: Pattern of total rainfall and rainfall anomaly at Mille woreda and the nearby
four decades
Source: analysis of secondary data acquired from NMA of Ethiopia, Samara Branch,
: year 1983 and 2007 omitted due to lack of full year data at Mille station
- 0.032
R = 0.005
1
9
9
4
1
9
9
8
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
6
Time in Year
Mille Woreda annual Rainfall Anomaly
y = -0.735x + 308.5
R = 0.006
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Time in year
Total Rainfall at Mille Woreda
0.001x + 0.019
Rainfall Anomaly at Dubti
y = -0.588x + 194.1
R = 0.005
0
100
200
300
400
Total RF at Dubti
0.144
Rainfall anomal at Gewane
y = 4.656x + 386.6
R = 0.069
0
200
400
600
800
Total rainfall at Gewane

Mille woreda and the nearby
, Samara Branch,
: year 1983 and 2007 omitted due to lack of full year data at Mille station
0.735x + 308.5
Total Rainfall at Mille Woreda
0.588x + 194.1
y = 4.656x + 386.6
Total rainfall at Gewane
4.2.2. Temperature variability and trends
Since there were no long-term record of maximum and minimum temperature at mille
station researcher forced to use record of neighboring Woredas such as Dubti and Gewane.
Measured temperature at both Gewane and Dubti stations has shown increased trends in
both average and anomalies.
stations (Dubti and Gewane) has shown increased
increased in both stations much faster with bigger implications on water, food and feed
shortages which are coupled with declinin
to NMA (2007) temperature of the country has been increasing by about 0.37
years.
Figure 5: Trends of average maximum temperature at Gewane and Dubti from 1981
2010
Source: analysis of secondary data acquired from NMA of Ethiopia
(2011)
y = 0.118x + 34.51
R = 0.368
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
Trend of average temprature Gewane
y = 0.048x + 36.39
R = 0.098
30.0
32.0
34.0
36.0
38.0
40.0
42.0
Trends of average max temp. at Dubti
35
Temperature variability and trends
term record of maximum and minimum temperature at mille
station researcher forced to use record of neighboring Woredas such as Dubti and Gewane.
Measured temperature at both Gewane and Dubti stations has shown increased trends in
both average and anomalies. As shown in Figures 5, average annual temperature in both
tations (Dubti and Gewane) has shown increased trends. Temperature v
in both stations much faster with bigger implications on water, food and feed
shortages which are coupled with declining and unreliable patterns in rainfall. According
to NMA (2007) temperature of the country has been increasing by about 0.37

of average maximum temperature at Gewane and Dubti from 1981
Source: analysis of secondary data acquired from NMA of Ethiopia, Samara Branch,
y = 0.118x + 34.51
R = 0.368
Trend of average temprature Gewane
y = 0.003x
R = 0.368
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
Temprature Anomaly at Gewane
Anomaly
y = 0.048x + 36.39
R = 0.098
Trends of average max temp. at Dubti
y = 0.001x
R = 0.129
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
1
9
8
1
1
9
8
4
1
9
8
8
.
0
1
9
9
1
1
9
9
4
1
9
9
7
2
0
0
0
Temprature anomaly at Dubti Woreda
temprature anomaly
term record of maximum and minimum temperature at mille
station researcher forced to use record of neighboring Woredas such as Dubti and Gewane.
Measured temperature at both Gewane and Dubti stations has shown increased trends in
temperature in both
Temperature variability has
in both stations much faster with bigger implications on water, food and feed
rainfall. According
to NMA (2007) temperature of the country has been increasing by about 0.37
0
C every ten
of average maximum temperature at Gewane and Dubti from 1981-
, Samara Branch,
y = 0.003x - 0.048
R = 0.368
Temprature Anomaly at Gewane
Anomaly
y = 0.001x - 0.025
R = 0.129
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
9
Temprature anomaly at Dubti Woreda
temprature anomaly
36
Based on the last three consecutive years data analysis mean monthly temperature has
shown relatively constant trends except April 2009, which was extreme month within
three years, at the Mille station (Figure, 6).
Figure 6: Average monthly temperature at the study area for the last three consecutive
years
Source: analysis of data acquired from National Meteorology Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia,
Samara Branch, (2011)
As shown in Figure 7, mean monthly temperature anomaly has shown increased trends
from year to year from 2008-2010. Maximum monthly temperature anomaly has shown
negative values from month November to February and positive from April to September
at the study area. Moreover, mean monthly minimum temperature anomaly shown
Negative values form April to September and positive from November to February.
Generally, as the anomaly of mean maximum monthly temperature goes to positive; in
contrary mean monthly minimum temperature goes to negative (Figure, 7).
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Jan.
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Average monthly temprature at the study area for three consicutive years
2008
2009
2010
Figure 7: Monthly maximum
Source: Own analysis of data acquired from National Meteorology Agency (NMA) of
Ethiopia (2011)
4.3. Local community perception on
As shown in Table 4, about 88% of the respondents perceived tha
study area increased; and the rest 12%
local community feels that temperature at winter (bega) has
(Kiremt) colder. Summer (main rain season)
September. As clearly revealed
that rainfall at the study area
remaining 8% increased. In addition to, declining trend in the amount and distribution of
rainfall, about 96% and 85%
characterized by late onset and
Table 4: Climate change perception
Local Community perception
on climate change
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
J
a
n
.
F
e
b
M
a
r
A
p
r
M
a
y
J
u
n
J
u
l
A
u
g
Monthly Maximum Temprature
variation at the study area
2008 2009 2010
37

and minimum temperature variability at Mille Woreda
of data acquired from National Meteorology Agency (NMA) of
. Local community perception on climate change
, about 88% of the respondents perceived that temperature of the
increased; and the rest 12% decreased for the last three decades.
s that temperature at winter (bega) has become hotter and
Summer (main rain season) encompasses months from
revealed in the Table 4, about 91% of the respondents perceived
area decreased over the last three decades significantly and
increased. In addition to, declining trend in the amount and distribution of
and 85% of respondents believed that rainfall at the study area
characterized by late onset and early cessation respectively the last few decades
erception of the local community (n=95)
ion Change perceived Percentage
A
u
g
S
e
p
O
c
t
N
o
v
D
e
c
Monthly Maximum Temprature
variation at the study area
2010
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
J
a
n
.
F
e
b
M
a
r
A
p
r
M
a
y
J
u
n
J
u
l
A
u
g
S
e
p
Monthly Minimum Temprature
variation at the study area
2008 2009 2010 min
Mille Woreda
of data acquired from National Meteorology Agency (NMA) of
t temperature of the
last three decades. Furthermore,
become hotter and at summer
encompasses months from June to
, about 91% of the respondents perceived
des significantly and
increased. In addition to, declining trend in the amount and distribution of
that rainfall at the study area
the last few decades.
Percentage
S
e
p
O
c
t
N
o
v
D
e
c
Monthly Minimum Temprature
variation at the study area
2010 min
38
Change in temperature Increased 88.4
Decreased 11.6
Change in Rainfall Increased 7.4
Decreased 91.6
Change in onset of rainfall Late 96.8
Early 3.1
Unchanged 1.1

Change in cessation of rainfall Early 85.3
Late 8.4
Unchanged 6.3
Is there climate change? Yes 98.9
No 1.1
Source: Own field survey 2011
39
Figure 8: Focus group discussions at Diylenna Giraro and Seneasinna Kusurtu Kebeles

Focus group discussions at Diylenna Giraro and Seneasinna Kusurtu Kebeles of the
Woreda source: Own field survey (2011)
The information generated from focus group discussions held in three sample Kebeles and
key informant interview clearly revealed that there were significant change in climatic
element profoundly rainfall and temperature. Interestingly, the perception of the
community is aligned with the measured rainfall and temperature. Local community at the
time of group discussions perceived that there is climate change in the sample Kebeles and
they attributed it to deforestation, land degradation, extinction of different plant species
that attract rainfall and stabilize temperature. They have listed down some of plant species
that were at the locality before 30 years and has been extinct currently. They also
intensively perceived that there is a change in rainfall and attributed it for the factors
plainly listed above and some of them to the we dont know, but Allah. Furthermore,
they also feel that local temperature has been increasing from year to year and exemplified
by taking and comparing winter (Gilali) before 30 years and now. They feel not only
increased temperature; but also there were seasonal variations at the Kebeles. By saying
there were four seasons at the kebele kerma (June to September- main rainy season), Gillal
(October to January- dry season), Hagy (February to May- short 2-3 days rain shower
(Dadaa)) and Sugum (March to April-short rainy season). It has been changed currently
and thinking about them becomes long time memory. They agreed on the statement as the
ground dried the sky also dried. For instance, in last rainy season there were some pocket
areas that has not received rainfall at all.
40
Box - 1
Said Umer, Mille woreda PARDO
Said Umer is team leader in plant science department in the Mille Woreda Pastoral, Agriculture
and Rural Development Office. He has been lived at the woreda for 13 years. He explained that
there is climate change for the last few decades at the study area. The rainfall amount is
decreasing from time to time and distribution has also become erratic and unpredictable. It is
directly related with pasture and water availability. If there is no rain, availability of pasture and
water will be reduced. Hence, food insecurity will be aggravated. For Afar pastoralist, pasture
security is food security. Besides, he believed that there is change in livestock herd size and
composition. Herd size is decreasing at the increasing rate especially cattle and sheep. This is
because of camel and goat can survive heat stress than cattle and sheep. Hence, local community
has forced to change their prior livelihood and livestock holding. This directly affects food
security of the community significantly.
41
4.4. Impacts of climate change/variability on food security
Community at the study area uses different food sources to cover their daily food need.
Major food sources are purchased cereals (maize, wheat, and sorghum) supplemented by
livestock products such as camel milk and shoat meat from their own livestock.
Emergency food aid and Productive Safety Net (PSN) also considered as part and parcel
of food sources, since all rural Kebeles have been benefiting from it.
Table 5: Impacts of climate change on food security and livelihood
Indicators response frequency
percentage
Impact of climate Yes 91
95.8
change on food security No 1 1.1
NR 3 3.2
CC impacts on livelihood Yes 91
95.8
No 3 3.2
NR 1 1.1
Source: field survey 2011
NR: indicates no response
As clearly indicated pastoralism is a major livelihood of the study area. Mille woreda
belongs to Araamis kee Adaar postoral livelihood zone. Cattle, shoats (sheep and goats)
and camels are the most dominant livestock at the study area. Local community indicated
that the livestock holding has dwindled from 35-40 to 10 Shoats for better off households
on average. Furthermore, about 95% of respondents perceived that climate change has
impacts on local livelihood and subsequently on their food security. Climate change has
been become multiplier of food insecurity problem. It has been imposing significant
impacts on livelihoods especially on highly sensitive to climate change such as rain-fed
crop production and livestock husbandry like Mille woreda. As clearly shown in Table 5,
considerable number of respondents perceived that impacts of climate change on food
security are significant. Moreover, they believed that their livelihood is vulnerable to
climate change. Generally, almost all respondents believed that climate change has been
affecting significantly their food security status and livelihood as well.
42
Climate change affects food security in dynamic and numerous ways. As various studies
have been indicated climate change affect all dimensions of food security such as
availability, access and utilization in the following ways. According to WFP et al. (2009)
many countries are already dealing with climate change impacts resulting from irregular,
unpredictable rainfall patterns and prolonged drought on food security. Besides, WFP et
al. (2009) stated that climate change will reduce food availability, because it negatively
affects the basic elements of food production soil, water, pasture and biodiversity
significantly. Interestingly, perception of local community is also aligned with this fact.
4.4.1. Implication of climate change impacts on food access
Food access of the households has been influenced by multitudes of factors. These are
supply of food items at local market, price of food items, ability of household to purchase
it, term of trade (ToT) that is calculated as one commodity in terms of another. Term of
trade (ToT) is a special kind of index, which compares the price of one commodity with
another commodity (IIRR and SC-USA, 2007). The general formula for calculating term
of trade is
ToT = unit price of commodity "X" unit price of commodity "y"
43
Table 6: Average yearly price and term of trade index calculated as an example
Item Average yearly price in Birr
2007 2008 2009 2010
Sheep 155 750 550 720
Goat 175 525 500 675
Sorghum 575 500 512 475
Wheat 515 X 750 500
Maize 520 X 450 X
ToT for Sorghum in
terms of goat 3.3 0.95 1 0.7
Source: Own computation based on PARDO data 2011
Note: X indicated no data available at the year
In the last three years Term of Trade (ToT) at the study area is directly proportional with
temperature and inversely proportional with average amount of rainfall. For this reason, as
the temperature increase the term of trade (ToT) of Sorghum increase and as the rainfall
increase the term of trade decrease. This is may be due to the shortage of cereals in the
local market while there were shortage of rainfall on one hand and reduction of livestock
price on the other hand at the time of drought (Figures, 9). It also implies production
shortage in crop producing areas. Certainly, this affects food availability dimension of
food security significantly.
44
Figure 9: Relationship between ToT, rainfall and temperature
Source: own analysis of temperature and rainfall data acquired from National Meteorology
Agency, Samara Branch, and average annual price from PARDO, Mille woreda
As clearly elucidated in Table 8, about 54% of respondents have replied that there was no
enough food supply at local market and 33% of respondents replied that there was enough
food supply at the market. Although having enough food items at local market influences
food access significantly, distance from nearby local market might have also have
considerable impact on access of these available food items at the market. Additionally,
about 85% of the respondents replied that the price of food items at local market is the
highest at winter and about 13% of respondents replied that it is the highest at summer.
Moreover, respondents replied price of food items is the highest at winter, elaborated their
response by saying, at the winter, due to shortage of rainfall, the price of livestock would
be decreased. This is because of poor performance of livestock due to lack of pasture and
water availability. Unlikely, the price of cereals increased. According to CARE et al.
(2009) decreased pasture availability and livestock quality in times of drought will result
in more livestock being brought to the market and sold at reduced prices. This market
conditions in times of drought (i.e. increased grain prices and decreased livestock prices)
will further weaken the terms of trade (ToT) for pastoralists, leading to reduced household
incomes and increased poverty.
Food prices may have an impact on food access of households, by limiting the acquisition
of appropriate foods for a nutritious diet and the purchasing power of households. Climate
change will also contribute substantially to raise food prices at local market by reducing
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
36.5
37
37.5
38
38.5
39
39.5
2008 2009 2010
Year
Relationship between average
temprature and ToT at the Mille woreda
ave Temp ToT
0
0.5
1
1.5
0
100
200
300
2008 2009 2010
Yaer
Relationship between ToT and Average
rainfall at Mille woreda in the last three
years
Ave. RF ToT
45
availability of food items on one hand and, reducing the price of livestock reduce their
purchasing power on the other hand. Temperature increases of more than 3
0
C may cause
prices to increase by up to 40 percent (Easterling et al., 2007).
As shown in the Table 8, about 89% of respondents replied that hunger period in the study
area has been increasing from time to time. Moreover, about 72% of respondents replied
that they have no enough income to cover their food expenses at the current market price.
Generally, in the study area households might use various food sources to cover their food
need such as, purchased cereals, own livestock products, Productive Safety Net, and
emergency food aid are among the major ones.
Table 7: Impacts of climate change on food access
________________________________________________________________________
__
Indicators response frequency
percentage
Enough Food supply at the market No 52 54.7
Yes 32 33.7
No change 11 11.6
Highest price at the market Winter 81 85.2
Summer 13 13.7
NR 1 1.1
Hunger period in the year for Increased 85 89.5
last 3 decades Decreased 8 8.4
No change 2 2.1

Level of income to covering No 69 72.6
food expenses Yes 20 21.1
NR 6 6.3
Source: Own field survey 2011
Note: NR indicates no response
4.4.2. Impacts of climate change on livestock (food availability)
This section describes in detail
herd size and composition, and livestock quality/productivity
by livestock husbandry. Most commo
cattle, camel, equines and chickens.
cattle and camel respectively.
follow.
Figure 10: Type and total number of livestock at Mille woreda
Source: analysis data acquired from PARDO
As depicted from the above F
about 72 percent, own shoat (sheep and goat). Local community believed that the livestock
population has been facing critical problems.
been raised that they have lost their
and water on one hand and those at han
veterinary services such as lack of
inability of the community to
climate change. This has been imposing
sources are directly and/or indirectly dependent on livestock.
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
Cattle Sheep
Mille woreda livestock number
46
This section describes in detail the implications of climate change on livestock numbers,
herd size and composition, and livestock quality/productivity. Mille woreda is renowned
Most common types of livestock at the woreda are goat, sheep,
cattle, camel, equines and chickens. The highest population was goat followed by sheep,
cattle and camel respectively. Type and number of livestock at the woreda depicted as
total number of livestock at Mille woreda in 2005
Source: analysis data acquired from PARDO 2011
As depicted from the above Figure, the majority of the residents at the woreda, that is,
about 72 percent, own shoat (sheep and goat). Local community believed that the livestock
population has been facing critical problems. The community at group discussions
y have lost their endemic type of livestock through shortage of
and water on one hand and those at hand also has been challenging in shortage of
lack of veterinary equipments, trained personnel, drugs and
lity of the community to buy drugs and, prevalence of different diseases caused by
climate change. This has been imposing considerable impact on food security since
directly and/or indirectly dependent on livestock.
Sheep Goat Camels Equines Chickens
Mille woreda livestock number
Number of livestock at Mille Woreda
the implications of climate change on livestock numbers,
Mille woreda is renowned
woreda are goat, sheep,
The highest population was goat followed by sheep,
Type and number of livestock at the woreda depicted as
igure, the majority of the residents at the woreda, that is,
about 72 percent, own shoat (sheep and goat). Local community believed that the livestock
at group discussions has
endemic type of livestock through shortage of pasture
shortage of effective
, trained personnel, drugs and
buy drugs and, prevalence of different diseases caused by
considerable impact on food security since food
Chickens
47
Food availability at pastoralist areas is affected by water and pasture availability.
According to WFP et al. (2009) climate change caused declines of 40 to 90 percent of
grassland productivity in semi-arid and arid regions like Afar and Somali. That is, in
complementary speaking as the productivity of pasture land decreased the productivity of
livestock decreased.
As clearly revealed in Table 9, about 96% of respondents believed that there is change in
herd size as compared to the past three decades while only 1% of respondents perceived as
if there is no change in terms of herd size. Furthermore, about 81% of respondents
believed that the trend of herd size decreased; about 16% believed increased and
remaining 3% believed there were no change in the last few decades. Lastly, about 99% of
respondents perceived that there were herd composition change and attributed it to pasture
and water availability, livestock diseases, impacts of drought and flood. About 67% of
respondents believed that number of shoat and camel decreased. Besides, about 76% of
respondents believed that number of cattle decreased.
Table 8: Impacts of climate change on herd size and composition and associated reasons
Indicators response frequency percentage
Herd size change Yes 92 96.8
No 1 1.1
Constant/Unchanged 2 2.1
Trend of herd size change Decreased 77 81.1
Increased 16 16.8
Constant/Unchanged 2 2.1
Herd composition change Yes 94 98.9
No 1 1.1
Change in number of cattle Decreased 72 75.8
48
Increased 21 22.1
Constant/Unchanged 2 2.1
Change in number of shoat Decreased 64 67.4
Increased 30 31.5
Constant/Unchanged 1 1.1
Change in number of camel Decreased 64 67.4
Increased 27 28.4
Constant/Unchanged 4 4.2
Pasture availability Decreased 89 93.6
Increased 5 5.3
Constant/Unchanged 1 1.1
Water availability Decreased 91 95.8
Increased 4 4.2
Source: Own field survey 2011
Food availability is affected by various factors liable for production and productivity.
Thus, in pastoralist areas production depends on various factors that influence production
and productivity of livestock namely, herd size and herd composition change, health
situation of animals, availability of water and pasture. About 94% and 96% of respondents
believed that availability of pasture and water has been decreased. In a broad speaking, as
availability and quality/access of water and pasture increase, productivity and performance
of livestock increase and vice versa. This in turn depends on climatic factors like rainfall
and temperature. Livestock is at center of pastoral livelihoods and key source of food and
income in pastoral communities (CARE et al., 2009). Moreover, Arndt et al., (2009) stated
that an extended drought also reduces livestock herds, which is a primary factor of
production for rural smallholders.
Reduction of livestock feed is attributed not only to impacts of climate change, but also
proliferation of weed like Prosopis juliflora, which is common in the study area. Prosopis
49
is a fast growing tree that tends to form dense impenetrable thorny forest. It depletes
ground water and reduces the growth of neighboring plants. Hence, livestock are not able
to graze underneath and have difficulties in accessing the river water. Livestock feed is
further constrained by encroachment of grazing lands by inedible thorny weeds. It is
uncontrollable weed. It was introduced to Afar region as dike conservation plant but is
now out of control heavily invading important grazing areas. It has invaded large grazing
areas in Mille woreda.
4.4.3. Impacts of climate change on human health
Table 9: Impacts of climate change on human health
Indicators Response Frequency
Percentage
Health problem Yes 91 95.8
No 4 4.2
Trend of health problem Increase 76 80.0
Decrease 15 15.8
N0 change 4 4.2
Most vulnerable group Children 48 50.5
Women 2 2.1
All community 40 42.1
NR 5 5.3
Source: Own field survey 2011
Note: NR indicates no response
Climate change may affect health situation and thus food utilization with additional
malnutrition consequences. As shown in Table 10, about 96% of respondents believed
that there is human health problem at the study area. Moreover, about 80% of the
50
respondents replied that the intensity and prevalence of health problem has been increased
from year to year and attributed to climate change. Amount and type of food intake
determines the health status of the individuals. According to WFP et al. (2009), decreasing
availability of water and food will also increase sanitation and health problems and
increase the risk of disease prevalence and malnutrition. It also directly or indirectly
related with water availability. As water availability, access to clean potable water
decrease, health condition of human and animals would be deteriorated. This is due to the
emergency of pests and outbreak of epidemics having favorable atmospheric conditions
through reduction of rainfall and increment of temperature.
Vulnerability of the community to inappropriate food utilization (lack of nutritional value)
varies from one family member to another. All family members are not proportionally
vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on food utilization. About 50% of respondents
believed that children are most vulnerable and about 42% of them replied that all
households dwelling in the study area are vulnerable to health problem. The prevalence of
health problem especially on the children and women indicates that there is a problem of
food security at the locality. This implies that the prevalence of food insecurity at the
study area.
4.5. Nexus between rainfall and food aid requirement
As clearly shown in figure 10, rainfall anomaly at Mille woreda is inversely related with
food aid requirements. As the rainfall anomaly goes down, emergency food aid
requirement at the woreda level goes up and vice versa. Food aid is not new thing for the
woreda, rather it is endemic that is some of them are grown in and others are borne in.
Among eleven Kebeles in the woreda except one town kebele the rest ten rural Kebeles are
productive safety Net program (PSNP) beneficiaries either as direct support or
participating public work activities. Productive safety net program has been started
recently at Afar region. Beneficiaries have been complaining administrators to provide
them free food aid rather than participate in public work. As stated by Mille Woreda
Disaster Prevention and Food Security office coordinator, Sofia Awoli, due to flash flood
there were unprecedented number of emergency food aid beneficiaries at the last year so
51
that various donors, UN agencies and NGOs have been participated and contributed to
curb the problem.
Moreover, as stated by Philpott et al. (2005) provision of food aid to drought affected
areas averts the need of pastoralists to liquidate their livestock capital via distress sales in
order to purchase food. Food aid may be imperative to reduce distress sale of livestock to
purchase food items. Thus, food aid is important for pastoralist not only to save their lives;
but also help them to sustain their livestock and livelihood for the future. Food aid in the
form of emergency ration distribution and productive safety nets contributes to a
significant proportion of household food needs. As livelihood profile study stated food aid
constitutes 33% for poor households; 15% for middle households and better-off
households do not receive food aid.
52
Source: Own analysis of rainfall data acquired form National Meteorology Agency of
Ethiopia, Samara Branch, and number of affected people and relief requirement at country
level from DRMFSS website (http://www.dppc.gov.et) (2011)
Generally, parts of country like Mille whose livelihood is directly or indirectly dependent
on rainfall; as the amount, distribution, duration, timing of rainfall has been good the food
requirement could be satisfied by own production and vice versa. In case of it as total
amount of precipitation increases, the people require emergency food aid decrease.
Emergency food aid is directly or indirectly dependent on precipitation. This implies that
as rainfall amount, timing, distribution is good the countries food security level may be
high. Thus, rainfall is all about life of Ethiopians, since we are dependent for our food,
feed, production and overall economy.
As Disaster Prevention and Food Security Coordination Office report (2010) stated there
were about 19,270 Productive Safety Net beneficiaries at the woreda from 2005 to 2007.
But after division of woreda into two independent Woredas such as Mille and Adar, the
number of beneficiaries at the woreda also has been divided into two and reduced to 11,
258, which is about 25% of total population at the woreda. Last year there were flood
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
relie food requirements DPPC (MT) rainfall anomaly
Figure 11: Nexus of food aid requirement and rainfall anomaly
53
incident at the Mille woreda and due to this reason 5,532 people has been seeking
emergency food aid.
Table 10: Nexus between rainfall, affected people and food relief requirement
Year
Affected population
in Millions
Relief food
requirements DPPC
(MT) Total Rainfall Anomaly
1994 6.7 895,866 373.1 0.24080905
1995 4 498,563 662.4 1.20292659
1996 2.55 295,600 236.5 -0.2134781
1997 2.65 427,800 206.8 -0.3122506
1998 4.55 614,500 440.9 0.46628976
1999 4.85 775,500 349.6 0.1626557
2000 8.95 1,380,200 450.8 0.49921393
2001 5.4 639,246 249.1 -0.1715746
2002 6.3 245,114 269.5 -0.1037308
2003 13.2 137,253 472.2 0.57038336
2004 7.2 964,690 344.3 0.14502963
2005 2.2 387,482 247.3 -0.1775608
2006 2.33 203,572 333.8 1.11011005
2007 1.36 150,580 NA NA
2008 6.4 461,746 163.6 -0.4559197
2009 6.2 670,350 139.5 -0.5360684
2010 5.2 642,983 284.1 -0.055176
2011 2.8 324,712 NA NA
Source: Own analysis of rainfall data acquired form National Meteorology Agency of
Ethiopia, Samara Branch, and number of affected people and relief requirement at country
level from DRMFSS website (http://www.dppc.gov.et) (2011)
Note: NA denotes Not Available
4. 6. Climate change induced hazards, their impacts and coping strategies
As the information extracted from community group discussions of the three sample
Kebeles, local community believed that climate change induced hazards and social-
induced hazards like conflicts aggravated by climate change. Moreover, local community
54
believed that the intensity, magnitude and recurrence of climate change induced hazards
such as drought, flood and animals and human diseases has increased for the last three
decades. Local community has identified and prioritized common hazards at their locality
based on frequency, magnitude and spatial coverage. Climate change has been inducing
unexpected and unusual hazards and intensifying their magnitude and terrifying their
impacts on local community.
As clearly shown in Table 11, 12 and 13, community at all the three Kebeles has believed
that drought hazards are first priority for the study area. Hence, it is matter of living and/or
not for them, they have given first priority for it. Local community clearly stated that
drought at one year may cause loss of their livestock holding by at least half. Communities
know that animals are their security. Drought has imposed sever impacts on pastoral
livelihood. Community themselves has jotted down impacts of drought on people and
livestock. Some of them are reducing water quality, intensifying household food
insecurity; poor or weak performance of livestock and reduce pasture quality/access.
As NMA (2007) stated climate change affects pastoral regions in various ways. These
are:-change in livestock feed availability, effects of climate change on animal health,
growth and reproduction, impacts on forage crops quality and quantity, change in
distribution of diseases, changes in decomposition rate, change in income and prices. In
the arid and semi-arid areas like Mille, drought is part and parcel of normal cycle, and
pastoralists have developed some strategies to cope with it, such as mobility, livestock
species diversity, reciprocity in use of resources, territorial fluidity and social safety nets
(Yohannes and Mebratu, 2009: 6)
55
Table 11: Hazards, their impacts and coping strategies of Sene'asnna Kusurtu Kebele
Seneasnna Kusurtu kebele
Hazard Impact Coping Strategy
Drought
Reduce water quantity and
quality Selling small livestock (Bekel)
Household food insecurity Migrate in search of employment
Sick or weak performance of
livestock Selling small livestock/destocking
Flood
Damage to dwellers and
residence Migration
Animal and human Disease Using traditional medication
Damage of grazing land and
water quality Migrating in search of water and pasture
Livestock
diseases
Livestock weight loss
Loss of livestock market
access
Livestock deaths Using traditional medication
Source: Own field survey analysis using CRiSTAL 4.0 (2011)
56
Table 12: Hazards, their impacts and coping strategies of Diylenna Giraro Kebele
Diylenna Giraro kebele
Hazard Impact Coping Strategies
Drought
Reduce water and pasture
quality/access
Selling firewood and small livestock
(Bekel)
Household food insecurity Migrate in search of employment
Poor or weak performance
of livestock Selling livestock
Flood
Damage of dwelling Flood diversion mechanism
Animal and human Disease Using traditional medication
Damage of grazing land and
water quality
People and livestock migration in
search of water and pasture
Ethnic conflict
with Somali
Issa ethnic
group
Human death Traditional peace building
Village instability
Resource sharing and create common
interest
Displacement Migrating to secured areas
Source: Own field survey analysis using CRiSTAL 4.0 (2011)
57
Table 13: Hazards, their impacts and coping strategies of Gesiyonna La'as Kebele
Gesiyonna Laas kebele
Hazard Impact Coping Strategy
Drought
Reduce water quality Selling firewood and livestock
Household food insecurity Migrate in search of employment
Sick or weak performance of
livestock Digging deep and boreholes
Flood
Damage of dwelling
People and livestock migration to
adjacent areas
Animal and human Disease Using traditional medication
Damage of grazing land and
water quality
Migrating in search of water and
pasture
Livestock
diseases
Livestock weight loss Selling for cheaper price
Loss of livestock market
access Using for food purpose
Livestock deaths Traditional medication
Source: Own field survey analysis using CRiSTAL 4.0 (2011)
As found via community group discussions drought and flood are common hazards for all
three sample kebeles. As shown in Table 12, ethnic conflict driven by resource especially
for pasture and water is common in Diylenna Giraro kebele Afar with Somali Issa
community. As DRMFSS report (2010) depicted due to flood incidence 3720 households
were affected in the study area only by the last summer flood. It also has caused
considerable loss of property, infrastructures, residences, grazing land and water access.
58
Table 14: Pair-wise ranking of hazards by community
Drought Flood Livestock
disease
Conflict Score Rank
Drought Drought Drought Drought 3 1
Flood Food Flood 2 2
Livestock
disease
Livestock
disease
1 3
Conflict 0 4
Source: Field survey 2011
Community from three sample Kebeles rated drought as their first hazard; and flood and
livestock disease as second and third respectively. As the result, they revealed their need
to have different drought averting projects as first and foremost priority at the study area.
Disaster risk reduction model was used in the study to determine the level of food
insecurity risk using hazard, vulnerability and coping (adaptive) capacity.
=

: ; = ,
= ,
= , =
Generally, disaster risk reduction model is comprehensive risk reduction model that is
highly focused on three interactive and imperative pillars considered in the formula of
disaster risk reduction. From this model point of view disaster risk reduction can be
achieved through reduction of vulnerability, underpinning capacity. In case of climate
change by enhancing adaptive capacity disaster risk reduction strategies can be achieved.
As clearly stated in the study area, there are climate change induced hazards and
livelihood, that community has been pursuing, is highly sensitive to climate change
coupled with low adaptive capacity make risk of food security worst at the study area.
Reducing vulnerability and enhancing adaptive capacity is the key to reduce the impacts of
disasters. DRR (Disaster Risk Reduction) is defined as the concept and practice of
reducing disaster risks through systematic efforts to analyze and manage the causal factors
59
of disasters, including through reduced exposure to hazards, lessened vulnerability of
people and property, wise management of land and the environment, and improved
preparedness for adverse events.

=
| ] [ ]

Climate change vulnerability at the study area is found high due to the dependency of
climate change sensitive livelihood that is livestock husbandry, which is dependent on
water and pasture availability this in turn on rainfall and temperature.
In general, risk of food security primarily depends on base of livelihood strategies that the
local community has been pursuing on one hand and their sensitivity to climate change,
social networks, political situation, environmental, and economic status that persists at the
area on the other hand.
The Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) framework, expressed in this way, is powerful
because it helps us differentiate between cause and effect. Risk is the effect or outcome
we are measuring, specifically the risk of food insecurity. There are two factors that
cause this outcome: the external cause, which is the hazard (climate change); and the
internal cause, which is a combination of vulnerability factors to hazards, and their
adaptive capacity.
Thus, risk of food security= [intensity, magnitude, recurrence, spatial coverage and
temporal variation of climate change induced extreme events, and variability of rainfall
and temperature have been increasing] + [dependency on climate sensitive livelihoods like
rain-fed crop production and livestock husbandry] [lack of diversified income or
livelihood base]. From this we can conclude that food security risk at the study area has
been increasing. Food security at the study area is not only depends on climatic factors,
but also on social, environmental, economic and cultural systems at the place. Chronic
food insecurity incidents at the area confirms that the existence of the problem though
government and non government organizations have been striving to reduce it.
60
Table 15: Food security risk, hazards, vulnerability factors and adaptive capacity
Risk of
food
security
Hazard Vulnerability/livelihood
asset
Adaptive capacity
Drought Physical settlement at arid
and semi-arid, chronic water
shortage etc.
Suitable land for irrigation,
awash dam, access roads
Social- ethnic conflicts Excellent helping behavior,
information sharing culture
(Daagu), traditional ethnic
based institutions, religious
institutions
Economic-livestock and
human diseases
Low economic status,
reduction of livestock holding
Environmental-recurrent
drought
Degraded environment
extinction of different plant
and animal species
Flood Physical:- flat topography
and degraded land,
settlement at low-lying
areas, adjacent to river basin
Access for sand to divert,
Social:- weak housing,
Low knowledge about flood
prevention
Excellent helping behavior
Economic:- Low economic
status
Livestock holding
Environmental Degraded and low infiltration
Conflict Physical:- Sharing borders
with different regions and
woredas
Existence of traditional
conflict resolution mechanism
Social:- Different culture
interaction and cultural
quarrel
Tolerance with different
community
Economical Different economic status
Environmental Low availability of water and
pasture
Livestock Physical:-shortage of water, Traditional medication
61
disease pasture, veterinary service
Social Low knowledge about
vaccination
Economical Unable to afford medication
Environmental Low availability of pasture and
water for animals
Source: Own field survey (2011)
Risk of food insecurity depends on three elements such as hazards, vulnerability
progression and adaptive capacity of the community. Thus, local community has identified
common hazards, vulnerability factors and potential adaptive capacity (Table, 15).
4.7. Impacts of climate change induced hazards on livestock holding on the study
area
Different hazards were recurrent at different Kebeles. Respondents at Dayileenna Giraro
Kebele were believed that there were existences of drought, flood and Conflict at the
kebele. Moreover, about 54% of the respondents believed that drought is the first hazard at
the kebele followed by flood and conflict respectively (Figure, 12). Besides, respondents
from Gesiyonna Laas believed that only drought hazard was recurrent at the kebele.
Lastly, research result found that for Seneasinna Kusurtu kebele drought and flood were
common hazards. Generally, drought, flood and conflict are common hazards at the study
area.
62
Figure 12: Percentage number of hazards at the sample Kebeles
Source: Own field survey 2011
Generally, livestock holding is dependent on the presence of pasture and water, which in
turn depends on rainfall and temperature. Household livestock holding is affected by the
recurrence of hazards such as drought, flood and conflict at the study area. As the study
result found drought hazard has been imposed considerable impact on livestock holding of
the households. As clearly shown on Figures, 13, 14, 15, at the kebele with high response
of drought incident livestock holding were low. This is primarily may be due to
considerable impacts of drought on water and pasture. This directly implies that the
impacts of drought on food security at the study area.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Sena'as Gesi Dayilee
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

H
a
z
a
r
d
s
Kebele
Percentage of climate change induced hazards at the study area
Conflict
Flood
Drought
63
Figure 13: Hazards and cattle holding at the sample Kebeles of the study area
Source: Own field survey 2011
Figure 14: Hazards and Shoat holding at the sample Kebeles of the study area
Source: Own field survey 2011
54
100
40
30
60
16
10
1
9
0
20
40
60
80
100
Dayileenna Giraro
Gesiyonna La'as Seniasinna Kusurtu
Relation of hazards and cattle holding at the sample kebeles
Drought Flood Conflict Cattle Holding
0
20
40
60
80
100
Sena'as
Gesi Dayilee
Relation of hazards and Shoat holding at the sample kebeles
Drought Flood Conflict Shoat
64
Figure 15: Hazards and camel holding at the sample Kebeles of the study area
Source: Own field survey 2011
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Dayi
Gesi Sen
Relation of hazards and Camel holding at the sample kebeles
Drought Flood Conflict camel
65
4.8. Local adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies
Table 16: Local adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies
Adaptation and disaster
risk reduction
strategies
Adaptation/coping
mechanism
Response Percentage
selling firewood 14 14.7
selling animal and their
products unusually
3 3.2
practicing 2 or 3 of
adaptation strategies
65 68.4
NR 13 13.7
Source: Own field survey 2011
Note: NR indicates no response
As shown in Table 16, about 68% of respondents replied that they have been deploying
more than two or three adaptation (coping) and disaster risk reduction strategies.
Moreover, about 14% of respondents replied that they have been selling firewood as
coping strategies to reduce the impact of climate change and to fill food gap. Climate
change has been increasing the intensity of climate change induced hazards like flood and
drought and reducing capacity of people to cope with shocks. Recently, flood and drought
become recurrent problems at the study area. Mille is among one of the Woredas that has
been affected by drought and flood significantly for the last few decades (PANE, 2008;
Philpott et al., 2005). Although there were recurrent occurrence of drought and flood,
residents of the study area have been adapting and living with the problem by tolerating its
impacts using various coping strategies.
66
Table 17: Local coping mechanisms indentified by the communities
Responses Count of Responses
Percentage
Charcoal production 31 16.32
Digging deep and boreholes 2 1.05
Migration in search of water and
pasture
19 10.00
Selling livestock products 30 15.79
Selling fire wood 43 22.63
Selling small livestock (Bekel) 61 32.11
Selling wood for construction 4 2.11
Grand Total 190 100
Source: Own field survey 2011
Research found that local community has been deploying various adaptation (coping)
strategies to withstand the effects of climate change. As clearly shown in Table 17,
interviewed respondents have indicated that they were using different coping strategies at
the time of the problem to withstand it. Some of these are selling small livestock (Bekel),
selling fire wood, charcoal production and selling, selling livestock products, migrating in
search of water and pasture to an adjacent areas and selling wood for construction.
Seldom, in the study area selling small livestock (Bekel) is considered as stress indicator
of drought.
Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction has much in common because the
goal of both strategies are to reduce loss of live, suffering, future vulnerability and
strengthen capacity of the community to achieve the agenda of development that has been
set to achieve with in speficified periods. Disaster risk reduction is more broader than
climate change adaptation. Climate change adaptation emphasis on variability and climate
change induced hazards where as disaster risk reduction all hazards. Thus, climate change
adaptation is subset of disaster risk reduction. Adaptation to the changing climate is no
more an option rather it is necessity. Adapting to changing climate will help Ethiopia in
achieving its developmental goals (PANE, 2009b). Climate change adaptation is not a
matter of choice rather life or death, so that local people at the study area have been using
various measures to reside with changing climate.
67
4.9. Institutional and policy support for adaptation
Climate change adaptation is not concern of one specific institution; rather it needs
interagency approach to address current trends. At the study area there are international,
national, regional, zonal, and woreda government and NGOs have been working on
different sectors. As stated by key informants there are various NGO institutions have
been working directly on climate change adaptations on one hand and indirectly on its
impacts on the other hand.
Government institutions have been working individually to solve the problem in the past
and couldnt bring significant effect yet. It necessitated collaborative effort of institution to
bring considerable change in climate change adaptation. Nowadays, there was new
beginning in progress at the woreda, all institutions have been participated, Woreda
Adaptation Program for Action (WAPA). It has been prepared by woreda task force lead
by Friew Bekele, who is representative of woreda Disaster Prevention and Food Security
Office. It has taken into consideration the situation of the woreda and all the possible
adaptation options. It is challenged by lack of local community participation; sometimes
local community knows more than the experts about ground truth. Currently participatory
projects are more sustainable than non-participatory because they develop the sense of
ownership through participation.
Support for Sustainable Development (SSD): - it is local NGO. It has been working at
the woreda since 2008. It has been working on multi-sectoral project at Diylenna Giraro
Kebele. Some of activities of the organization are production of crop, vegetable, forage
through irrigation scheme established by the diversion of the Mille River and providing
animal health and saving and credit services. Moreover, it has been introducing different
drought resistant crop verities to the study area. Its limitation is that it is bounded at the
one Kebele in the woreda although almost all Kebeles have been suffering the problem of
climate change and subsequent food insecurity.
68
UNOCHA, UNICEF, FAO, WFP, WHO, SCUK, CARE and FEWS NET have
participated in rapid need assessment of the affected population by the last year flood
incident. After completion rapid need assessment, various organizations have distributed
emergency assistance accordingly. Here the gap is that they need not participate pre-
disaster phase. Moreover, institutions are interested to participate and invest on response
although it need more cost than prevention, mitigation and adaptation; because, pre-
disaster activities need more time than response phase.
[[[
4. 10. Suggested adaptation strategies for the study area
Local community at the study area has suggested following adaptive measures to
withstand the problem of climate change for the future:-
Responsibility sharing and control existing deforestation activities: - at the
woreda charcoal production taken as one of coping strategies especially at the time
of drought to reduce its impact. This further enhances the vulnerability of the area
for the future drought and flood. Controlling deforestation and producing charcoal
is not only responsibility of government entities, but also the local community.
Hence, its impacts are magnified at the community level. Impact of every disaster
is local that is it is highly intense at local level. That means not saying that federal
and regional government entities are free, but it impacts felt at grass root level.
Introducing drought resistant crop varieties:-currently thanks to innovations,
researches and technologies, different varieties have been introducing. Thus, to
reduce and adapt impacts of recurrent drought it is not willingness rather duty to
introduce and extend existing drought resistant crop varieties. The impacts and
recurrence of drought and flood has been increasing from time to time at the
woreda as evidenced by local community and local and regional governments. As
adaptation theory clearly shown the world has been sustaining because of humans
creativity, innovative capacity to abide with changing environment.
69
Developing integrated irrigation schemes: - at the woreda there are both water
and suitable landscape resources for irrigation schemes. Although there is wealthy
of water and suitable land at the woreda, there is only one integrated irrigation
project at the study site, which has been implementing by Support for Sustainable
Development (SSD) by the financial support of CORDAID. This project has been
benefiting thousands of individuals through participating at various activities. Key
informants have shown confirm stand, developing irrigation schemes are
alternative-less option for the woreda.
Livelihood diversification and considering crop production as livelihood
option: - obviously Mille woreda is one of entirely pastoral Woredas in the region.
Thus, community at the woreda has no multiple livelihood options except livestock
husbandry for their food and income. Key informants suggested that using crop
production as option is one of the possible adaptation mechanisms at the woreda.
For those who have access to market petty trade is suggested as one of options of
livelihood. Generally, to withstand the problem of climate change diversified
livelihood is necessitated. Diversified livelihood generates income and food from
various sources and can cop from climate change induced hazards.
Rehabilitation and reforestation: - the study area is one of severely degraded
Woredas at the region. In the woreda Productive Safety Net Programm (PSNP) has
commenced to be implemented in the last few years. PSNP as any other part of
country has two parts namely public work and direct support. Thus, through public
work rehabilitation work has been started, but not as such expected as that of
Tigray region. This is due to relief dependency of the community and overlooking
the role of public work. In Tigray region through community participation fruitful
rehabilitation works have been done which started by PSNP. Thus, local
administrations in participation with local community have to be encouraged
rehabilitation and reforestation activities at the study area.
Establishing water harvesting structures and institutional capacity building: -
Mille woreda has ample water resource since there are two perennial rivers namely
Mille and Awash River. Due to lack of established water harvesting structures, at
the time of drought and flood hazards water access for animal and human becomes
70
sever and residents may migrate to adjacent areas. Currently Ministry of Water
Resources has established dam at Awash River. This dam has various negative
consequences like inundation of adjacent Kebeles, reduction of water quality for
animal and human, because dam water is causing different animal disease; loss of
pasture access for animals around the River and loss of residences for local
community at adjacent Kebeles. Thus, water harvesting structures should have to
be appropriate, community participatory, take local ecology into consideration.
Create access to potable water and forage development: - Lack of potable water
couple with climate change has been causing problems. Lack of potable water for
animal and human in broad terms lack of sanitation, health, food, and generally
lack of life. In three sample Kebeles shortage of potable water has raised as
primary agenda at the time of group discussions. They have sent message for
stakeholders, including government to create them access to potable water as
urgent as possible.
71
5. Conclusion and Recommendations
5.1. Conclusion
As the study found climate of the study area has been changing from time to time. This
change also has been imposing unprecedented challenges on the issues of food security,
poverty reduction, effort targeted to achieve Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), and
in overall development status of the woreda. Although the impacts of climate change
distributed over the entire world, developing countries has been challenging
disproportionately. Climate change is unequivocal over the entire world. Among
developing continents Africa is under the pressure of climate change impacts in significant
manner.
As researches have shown, in Ethiopia climate change impacts have the potential to
undermine national effort targeted on poverty, food insecurity reduction and achieving
millennium development goals. Due to combination of anthropogenic and natural factors
the problem of food insecurity has been becoming the worst in many parts of the country.
From Ethiopia relatively least-developed, semi-arid, and arid regionsnamely, Afar and
Somali regionsare found highly vulnerable to climate change and consequently to food
insecurity. From the sectors water, food security and energy are found to be vulnerable.
Agriculture and pastoralism are major livelihoods in Ethiopia. Hence, our livelihoods are
directly or indirectly dependent on natural resources climate change matters a lot.
At the Mille woreda rainfall and temperature trends and anomalies have confirmed that
there is climate change at the study area. Total rainfall has shown decreasing trends with
high variability with coefficient of variation 41, 29 and 31 at Mille, Dubti, and Gewane
stations respectively. Local community perception has also confirmed that there is a
change in rainfall amount, distribution, timing which is concomitant with scientific data of
the study area. Local community believed that the amount of rainfall has been decreasing
in the last few decades and some of them attributed it for environmental degradation, loss
of plant species; some of them replied We dont know but, Allah.
72
Generally, historical data has shown increasing trends of average temperature with high
variability. Average temperature has shown an increasing trend from time to time at the
study area. Besides, local community felt that there is a change in temperature in the last
few decades. Community perception aligned with the trend of scientific data. Furthermore,
community believed that there are seasonal variations from the last three decades;
illustrated it by taking Bega (Gilal) of thirty years ago and now. At the time of focus group
discussions local community exposed that there were four seasons in their locality, now
there is only two. Rainy season might become less and less though time and totally fail in
some years.
Climate change acts as multiplier of threat of food security in Ethiopia. Hence, our
livelihood is dependent on natural resources sensitive to climate factors like temperature
and rainfall, variability or change of these variables matters. Climate change affects all
four dimensions of food security viz. food availability, access, utilization and stability.
Climate change impacts implications on food availability may be determined by, herd size
change, livestock composition change, availability of water and pasture and food aid.
These variables determine production and productivity of livestock. Hence, production
and productivity impacted, food availability will be impacted and in turn food security.
Water and pasture availability is influenced not only by climate change, but also by the
spreading out of weeds like prosopis, which is uncontrollable and some of the community
members termed as cursed plant.
Implications of the impacts of climate change on food access also determined by market
access, price of food items in terms of their livestock such as cattle, Shoat and camel
mainly; purchasing power and distance from nearby market. The study found that as the
distance from market increase, livestock holding of the household increase. This is may be
due to selling livestock as per their need. Climate change has been increasing the
occurrence, magnitude, intensity and recurrence of climate induced hazards like drought
and flood. Recurrent drought and flood have been imposing significant effect on the
livestock performance, pasture and water availability and these results in lower livestock
price.
73
An implication of climate change on food utilization is determined by the health status of
local community. Prevalence of disease especially on children, pregnant and lactating
mothers implies that there is nutritional problem at the community. Similarly, people in
Mille woreda believed that there is health problem at the woreda, identified children as
most vulnerable group.
Food aid has been contributing significantly for food security of the study area. It is
imperative to avert the problem chronic food insecurity by filling food gap. Moreover, it
helps community not to deteriorate their livelihoods in long-run. Generally, the study
found that requirement of food aid is dependent on the amount of rainfall and average
temperature. As the amount of rainfall increased, the requirement of food aid at country
level decreased and vice versa. This also holds true for the study woreda. Thus, we can
conclude that food aid requirement is inversely related with amount of rainfall.
As the study found climate change has been increasing magnitude, intensity, recurrence
(frequency) and threat of climate induced extreme events. As stated by local community at
the study area the intensity, frequency, magnitude and area coverage of flood and drought
have been increasing from time to time. Local community also confirmed that the
recurrence of these events have been increasing at the study area.
The study found that drought, flood and conflict are common climate change induced
hazards at the study area. Moreover, local community at time of focus group discussions,
in addition to, drought, flood and conflict has identified animal disease as one of the
climate change induced hazards. As the study found, these climate change induced hazards
has been imposing considerable impact on households livestock holding. Generally, the
study found that the Kebele community believed drought hazard is high; livestock holding
of the household was low. Hence, drought affects livestock holding more than other
climate change induced hazards such as flood, conflict and animal disease. This may be
74
due to its creeping effect on water and pasture. Thus, it has imposed significant pressure
on food security of the households at the study area.
The study found that households residing all three sample kebeles has been deploying two
or more adaptation strategies to withstand current climate change induced impacts. These
were:-selling small livestock, selling fire wood, charcoal production, selling livestock
products, migration in search of water and pasture, selling wood for construction and
digging deep and borehole were some of the adaptation strategies forwarded by
respondents. Moreover, since climate change adaptation has been reducing its impacts on
lives and livelihood of local people. Various government as well as non government
organizations get involved in directly adaptation and indirectly in climate change induced
impacts. For instance, SSD has been working for the last five years on climate change
adaptation project at the study area although it is bounded within one kebele.
5.2. Recommendations
The study found that food security has significantly affected by climate change at the
study area. Hence, for the further work researcher has recommended the following
activities
Government and non government organizations should have to work in collaboration to
reduce the impacts of climate change on food security. Moreover, it is not the
responsibility of one single organization to combat impacts of climate change but rather it
needs interagency collaboration to bring fruit full results. Any organization and
individuals including local community should have to shoulder responsibility to reduce
impacts of climate change.
Livelihood diversification: - as the study found livelihood of local community is entirely
pastoralism, which is dependent on natural resource base, which in turn depends on
rainfall and temperature. Once the amount of rainfall and temperature varies, livelihood of
the community will be affected. Diversifying livelihood options are important to generate
income and food from different sources and to withstand climate change induced shocks.
75
Hence, at the time of the problem all livelihood options may not suffer proportionally by
specific shock and equally vulnerable to shock. Local community to abreast with changing
environment should have to have diversified their livelihood and subsequently, food
sources.
Establish data base and information management center: - establishing baseline data is
very important to recognize change. Hence, local data base formation and information
management should have to be encouraged at the study area. The study found that the
woreda has the problem of data management. As any other basic entities the place should
have to be given for information management and sharing with local community and
update it regularly.
Promote disaster risk reduction and early warning system: - the study found that most
common hazards at the study area are drought, flood and conflict. Local community has
prioritized drought as fist hazard, which is slow onset and easy to early warn based on
indicators. Local government organizations in collaboration with local community should
have to develop local early warning system. Local community knows much about local
indicators of the hazard and as the option they had been migrating to adjacent areas. All
concerned stakeholders should have to integrate disaster risk reduction into their
development endeavors and day-to-day activities. At Afar there is excellent information
dissemination (sharing culture) (Dagu). Hence, concerned organizations should have to
intervene through existing culture.
Build on existing local knowledge: - local community knows much better than others
about their problems. Hence, any system targeted to reduce the problem should have to
take into consideration local knowledge. Moreover, local culture should have to be
considered. For example, golden culture information sharing (Dagu) system of Afar
should have to inculcate into development endeavor.
This current research cannot respond to all research needs and priorities related to impacts
of climate change on pastoral food security in Mille Woreda. More research will be
needed to complement and deepen the findings of this research. Key research priorities
identified by researcher includes
76
1. Broadening the scope of this current research to other pastoral areas within country.
The findings of this research cannot necessarily be extrapolated to other pastoral areas
within Ethiopia, which might be exposed to different climate hazards and trends, or
might have different adaptation strategies and priorities.
2. Deeper analysis of the influences of non-climatic factors (such as population pressure,
policies, land use changes, culture, etc.) on food security of households at the study
area.
3. Quantitative analyses on impacts of climate change on households food security;
their adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies at the study area to complement
this qualitative research results.
4. Assess the contribution of productive safety net (PSNP) to food security for the
household at the study area.
77
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7. Appendices
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7.1. Household survey questionnaire
a. Demographic characteristics
1. Name of the kebele: _____________________
2. Name of respondent: ___________________ Age: ______sex:________
3. Marital status: Married: single: other specify: ____________________
4. What is your educational level? Illiterate: 1-4grade: 5-10 grade High school
complete: diploma degree:
5. Do you have child/children? Yes /No
6. If yes, how many Male: ______Female: ______total household: _______
7. How long have you been in the kebele/study site?
Since birth Since 1970s
Since 1960s since 1980s
b. Market information (food access)
8. Do you have market access? Yes /No
9. Distance to the nearby market in km: __________how long it takes? _________hr
10. Is there enough supply of food items at the market? Yes /No if No, why do you
think?
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
11. When the price of food items is highest?
Winter summer autumn spring why?
12. Hunger period at the kebele increased Decreased if it is increased, why do you
think?
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
13. Have you enough income to purchase food items at the current price? Yes /No
if No, how do you survive?
_________________________________________________
c. Asset holding and Livelihood
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1. Do you own land? Yes / No
2. If yes, land holding size in hectare: ______
3. How do you make your living? Livestock husbadry: Crop production: Other
specify: ____________________
4. your livelihood sensitivity for climate change
Highly sensitive slightly sensitive
Sensitive Non sensitive
5. What is your food source? Own crop production own livestock production
purchase other specify: ______
6. If own production, what are they and in what quantity (kg) per year?
1. ______________ (______________kg) 3._____________(__________kg)
2. ______________(_______________kg) 4._____________(__________kg)
7. If purchase, what do you purchase mainly and in what quantity (kg) per year??
1. ___________ (_____________kg) 3________________ (______________kg)
2. ___________ (______________kg) 4. _______________(______________kg)
8. What is your source of income: ____________ (fill from question number 3) and
how much money do you earn per year in estimation? _________ETB
9. Are you cultivating crops? Yes /No If yes, which crops and their productivity
per hectare?
a. _______________ (_______Quintal); b. __________ (______Quintal)
c._______________ (_______Quintal); d. ____________ (_______Quintal)
10. In last 30 years the trend of crop productivity increased / decreased what are the
main reasons for the observed trends?
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
11. How many livestock do you own? Cattle: _________ Camel:_________ Shoat:
__________ Equines:__________ others specify: _______
12. Is there change in herd size over last 3 decades? Yes /No
a. Increased Decreased Remained constant why?
13. Over last 3 decade in your kebele is there change in herd composition? Yes / No

a. No of cattle increased decreased ; c. No of shoats increased decreased
b. No of camel increased Decreases
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14. Is there change in number of livestock before 30 years and now? Yes No if
yes, why do you think? If No, why not?
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
15. How is the access/quality of pasture for animals?
a. Access and quality for animal pasture increasing Decreasing why do
you think the observed trend?
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
16. How is the availability of water for animals? increasing Decreasing
Why do you think about observed trend?
________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________
d. Rainfall and Temperature variability and impacts of climate change
1. Over the last 30 years temperature in your locality increased /decreased why
do you think?
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
2. Over last 30 years precipitation in your locality increased /decreased why do
you think?
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
3. Main change observed over last 3 decades:
a. Rainfall onset early late unchanged
b. Rainfall cessation early late unchanged
c. Level of temperature hotter at winter colder at summer unchanged
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4. Do you think there is a climate change in your locality? Yes No if yes, how do
you describe it?
________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________
5. What are the impacts of such change on agriculture and livestock production?
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
6. Crops production:
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
7. Livestock husbadry:
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
8. Has the observed climate change (question 3) impact on food security of your
household? Yes No If yes, how and if no why?
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
9. Do you think the frequency and magnitude of climate induced hazards (drought,
flood, frost, etc.) has been increasing in the last 30 years? Yes No Why?
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
10. Which type of climatic shock is your main concern?
________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________
11. What were the consequences of such increase (if yes for Q 9) or decrease if No for
Q 9)?
__________________________________________________________________
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__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
12. Can you describe main livelihood means before 30 years and now in the order of
their importance
Before 30 years 1. ________ 2. __________ 3. _________4. __________
Currently 1.________ 2. ___________ 3. ____________4._____________
13. What are the major reasons for such shift in your livelihood means?
1.________________________________ 3. _______________________
2.________________________________4.________________________
14. Do you think climate change has impact on your livelihood? Yes No if yes,
can you describe it?
________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________
15. Have you ever faced any climate related impact in your life time? Yes /No If
yes, what type of climate related shock?
________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________
16. Is there health problem in the kebele Yes /No
17. If yes, health problem at kebele increased decreased unchanged
18. Who is more vulnerable? Children women elders all community
19. What have been the, GOs and NGOs doing to reduce impacts of the climate
change at the kebele?
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
E. Adaptation and coping mechanisms (DRR concepts)
20. What adaptation (coping mechanisms) do you use at the time of problem?
1. ____________________________ 3. ___________________________
2. ____________________________ 4.____________________________
21. Which adaptation mechanism is more feasible? (fill from Q 20) ___________
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22. What should have to be done to make households to adapt better climate change at
the kebele?
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
23. How have you been adapting these climate change impacts on food security?
________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________
24. What are the major constraints that hinder your adapting mechanisms?
________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________
25. Are you PSNP beneficiary? Yes No if yes, how much do you get per
year?:_____________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
26. Do you get any gift from relatives at the time of shocks? Yes No if yes, how
much do you get per year?
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
Thank you
7.2. Key informant interview (farmers, elders, clan leaders, experts, religious leaders
etc.)
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1. Name: _______________________________ Sector:_______________ Position
held/profession :_______________________________
2. How long have you been stayed here? _____________________________
3. Do you think there is climate change in your woreda or district? Yes No if
your answer is yes for (Qno 3), please can you explain why?
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
4. What were the amount, intensity and distribution of the rainfall of your
woreda/district/peasant association here before?
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
5. Is there change in 30 years and now suitability for livestock husbandry and crop
production? Yes No If yes, what are these change?
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
6. Is there change in animal herd size and composition? Yes/No why do you
think?
________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________
7. Has climate change impact on the livelihood? Yes No if yes, describe?
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
8. Do you think there are impacts of climate change on food security? Yes No if
yes, what type of relationship do they have?
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
9. What are main sources of food for your community?
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1. _____________________________ 3. ____________________________
2. _____________________________ 4. _____________________________
10. What are the impacts of climate change on food security in Mille Woreda?
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
11. Is there health problem in the woreda? Which part of the woreda is mostly at the
problem?
_________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________
12. Are there any positive impacts of climate change to the livelihood of community?
Yes No if yes, what are these?
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
13. Do you explain the extent of climate change and variability impact on crop and
livestock husbandry of your woreda/district/peasant association?
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
14. Is there market price change on food items? Yes No if yes, when and at what
extent?
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
15. Who is more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change? Poor middle better
off children elders women why?
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
16. Are there community adaptation strategies to live with these problems? Yes No
if yes, what are these adaptation mechanisms kebele or woreda?
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__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
17. How is helping behavior of the community at the time of problem? excellent v.
good Good poor
18. Is there any climate change concerned institutions in your woreda? Yes No if
yes, what are they? What are they doing?
1. ____________________________ 4. _______________________________
2. ____________________________ 5. _______________________________
3. ____________________________ 6________________________________
19. What do your think; such institutions should do to address impacts of climate
change?
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
20. What are the major coping (adaptation) mechanisms of the community to reduce
climate change impacts?
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
21. What government and Non-government organizations should do to facilitate
better adaptation to reduce the impacts of climate change?
1. ______________________________4 ________________________________
2. ______________________________ 5. _______________________________
3. _________________________________6. _______________________________
Thank you
7.3. Focus group discussion guiding questions
a. General situation of Kebele
1. Number of focus group discussion participants: __________________
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2. Name of kebele: _________________________________________
3. What are main livelihoods in your kebele?
4. What were major livelihoods before 30 years?
5. When you compare is there any change?
6. Number of PSNP and emergency food aid beneficiaries are increasing or decreasing
last 30 years? Why?
7. How is water/pasture availability in the kebele? V. good Good poor
8. At what month the problem becomes sever? Was there change before 30 years ago?
b. Community perception of climate change
1. What do you think about climate variability/change? Is
there climate change in your locality?
2. Is there season variation/change at kebele from 30 years?
Yes No if yes, describe?
3. Rainfall in last 30 years? Decreasing Increasing why
do you think?
4. Temperature in last 30 years? Hotter at winter colder at summer why do you
think?
5. Do you think climate change can have impacts on food security? Can you describe?
6. Can you describe impact of Climate change on livestock production, herd size,
composition?
7. How do you think animal and human health situation in your locality?
8. Local awareness and perception of climate variability and trends related to climate
change (over last 20-30 yrs)
Change of Rainfall and
temperature in relation
to food availability,
access, utilization, and
stability
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Rainfall
Temperature
(In historical matrix)
Rainfall Last year 5 yrs ago 10 years ago 15 yrs ago 20 yrs ago
Amount
Period
Duration
Intensity
Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar Ap. May. Jun. Jul. Aug
Season
Rainfall
Pasture availability
Abundant
Unchanged
Little
Hotter
Constant
Colder
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Water availability
Camel breeding
Camel milking and all
milk sales
Cattle breeding
Cattle milking
Shoat breeding
Goat milking
Hunger periods
Livestock sales
Cereal purchase
Current Seasonal calendar
Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar Ap
.
May
.
Jun
.
Jul. Aug
Season
Rainfall
Pasture
availability
Water
availability
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Camel breeding
Camel milking
and all milk
sales
Cattle breeding
Cattle milking
Shoat breeding
Goat milking
Hunger periods
Livestock sales
Cereal purchase
30 years ago seasonal calendar
7.4. Maps of study area
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