A Critical Analysis of The Double Transit Theory

- By Chandra Hari Two series of articles have appeared in `The Astrological Magazine' in 1985: ? The first series Three Stages of a Prediction by the Preceptor Sri KN. Rao was concluded in the August 1985 issue. ? The second series Broad Timing of Marriage by a number of disciples appeared in the June 1986 issue.

Oral Traditional Secret

The following description can be seen on page 631 of the Astrological Magazine, August 1985.

"I was lucky that an old astrologer on his way to a pilgrimage spot had come to me to help him cast a horoscope and, in return, like a true Satwik Brahmin, he taught, he should give to me something as a parting gift. He repeatedly told me, "nothing in the world can happen unless Saturn and Jupiter plan it out. You cannot even produce a child without their blessing". I hope I have proven the theory of the old pandit satisfactorily in this paper.

But let me once again make it clear that my mother, who would outlined the whole theory for me because she herself learnt it from an old Andhra Brahmin of Masulipatnam more than 60 years ago, told me to work out for more details after casting the horoscope correctly and give predictions not merely on the transit of these planets but also on the basis of Saptamsa and Mahadasa, sub -dasa, subsub-dasa and wherever necessary work even on the Sookshma dasa..."

The theory in nutshell The theory can be applied on any bh for predicting or timing the manifestation of the respective signification-like the birth of children from the fifth house or the event of marriage from the seventh house. The salient features of the theory are:

Saturn is the primary approver of the heavenly administration.

To quote the disciples in the context of marriage i.e. VIIth house:

"Saturn unites the bride and the bride groom. Saturn in consultation with Jupiter proposes how and when to tie the conjugal knot. So they influence both the bride and the bridegroom".

Technique of prediction can be well understood from the IInd series of papers beginning with 'Broad Timing of Marriage-I'.

Saturn should have aspected within one to two and a half years of a marriage:

(a) Lagna or Lagna lord representing the marriageable bride or bridegroom.

(b) The VIIth house or the VIIth lord, which represent the husband or wife.

Saturn therefore must have covered one aspect each from (a) and (b) above, which means before anyone's marriage Saturn should have aspected:

(1) Lagna and the VIIth house or VIIth lord

(2) Lagna lord and the VIIth house or VIIth lord.

(1) Role of Jupiter

Apply the same principle as for Saturn to Jupiter's transit but within a year generally, sometimes fifteen months.

(2) Author's claim

"?At the end of each article in the summary and conclusions we will prove the Supra-Scientific Validity of Hindu astrology by establishing that the principles we have arrived at are applicable to more than 80% cases straight away. In physical sciences when 60% results are obtained it is accepted as valid research. In astrology when we attain much higher percentage we still are open to accusation, because no one tolerates a failed prediction..."

Critical examination of the Theory

For illustrating the discrepancy let us consider the first example of Pt. Jawaharlal Nehru in detail (A.M. June 1986 Page 483) (Marriage took place in February 1916 only even though in those days marriageable age was very low like say, 2228 or even 18-25)

Data of Ephemeris

Saturn (T)* (1) Moved into Gemini on 20 June 1914 (2) Became retrograde on 16 October 1914 (3) Became direct on 27 February 1915 (4) Became retrograde on 30 October 1915 (5) Became direct on 12 March 1916 *(T)-means "in transit"

During first retrogression from 16.10.1914 Saturn (T) as well as, Jupiter (T) placed in Capricorn satisfied the conditions of the theory but marriage didn't took place during the year that followed. Why?

At the time of marriage, Saturn (T) was in Gemini and retrogression, which began on 30.10.1915, was used to explain the event. Also in the case of Jupiter, transit across Aquarius/ Pisces was used. So at the time of event, both Saturn

and Jupiter in transit had to influence 8 out of 12 houses by occupation and aspects, to fulfill the conditions of the theory.

Now consider the earlier period in which Saturn (T) was in Taurus.

Data of Ephemeris: Saturn (T)

(1) Moves into Taurus on 7 May 1912 (2) Retrograde on 17 Sept 1912 (3) Direct on 29 January 1913 (4) Retrograde on 02 October 1913 (5) Direct on 12 February 1914.

From 7th may 1912, Saturn (T) occupying Taurus aspected the Lagna of groom and by virtue of retrogression aspected from Aries the seventh house during: (1) September 1912 to 29 January 1913 and (2) 2nd October 1913 to 12 February 1914.

During the period (1) of retrogression, Jupiter aspected both the Lagna and VIIth lord by moving from Scorpio to Sagittarius. Thus the above period or the oneyear that followed was quite appropriate for marriage. But nothing happened. Why?

During period (2) of retrogression, 2.10.1913 to 12.02.1914 Jupiter moved from Sagittarius to Capricorn and satisfied the conditions. But again, there was no marriage in the following year.

From the above discussion it is apparent that in the case of Saturn (T), if we consider any span of 2.5 to 2 years or even less, (within which there will be obviously retrogression and probably transit also) for any possible occupancy of any two parameters at least one of them will fall under the influence of Saturn (T) in almost all cases. This is because during such a span of time Saturn (T) influences 8 out of 12 houses.

In the case of Jupiter, similar is the situation, if we consider any span of oneyear or even slightly less.

Anomaly described above is visible in all examples and hence the hypothesis is not valid. Situation may differ slightly due to clustering.

Other related points are:

(1) The condition of marriageable age has no relevance.

(2) The failure of the theory is implicit in the fact that it is not applicable to the horoscopes of twins.

(3) Jupiter according to the authors sometimes takes 15 months to fulfill the conditions. This is due to clustering of factors and can be mathematically explained. It must be noted here that the average tenancy of Jupiter in a house is only 361 days. Authors have found this period, which is less than a year as insufficient for their theory. Requirement of 15 months emerged from the need for a transit of Jupiter into another sign or retrogression so that influence can be located over the preceding sign - in short for bringing in another four houses.

The above points can be made clearer using the theory of probability.

Mathematical analogy

There are two sets of parameters (2 each) in our problem, signifying the bride and the groom. Mathematically the problem is distributions of 2 balls in 12 boxes out of which 8 are under the Saturn Saturnine influence i.e. say the 8 are marked.

For simplicity, we will take the maximum occupancy of the significators in one box as one. The probability that both the balls will falls in the 8 marked boxes.

8C2 .4Co 12 C2

28 66

-------------> (A)

With maximum occupancy as one two significators can form 66 configurations in 12 boxes out of which in 28 both significators will be under the influence of Saturn. The probability of finding only one in the marked boxes

2. 8C1. 4C1 = 12C2

32 66

----------------------------> (B)

In 32 out of 66 cases only one will be under the Saturn influence.

The probability of finding both the balls out of the 8 marked boxes.

8Co. 4C2 12 C2

66 66

--------------------------> (C)

From results (A) and (b) the total probability of finding at least one of the significators in 8 houses influenced by Saturn

32 66

+ 28 66

= 60 66

I.e. in 60 out of the possible 66 cases. That is more than 90%. This is the result that the authors have got using the collected data. Same is the case with Jupiter (T). This analysis is applicable to the 2 each significators of both the bride as well as groom.

Relative placement of Saturn (T) and Jupiter (T) as well as clustering of significators can influence the result to some extent. In some clustered cases, the relative placement of Jupiter (T) and Saturn (T) compensate for clustering.

Also when we collect samples randomly, we do not collect one each of all possible configurations. Configurations represented by (A) and (B) collected in plenty can take the result to 100%. In a set of randomly collected data the influence of cases represented by (c) will be quite negligible.

Against the above scientific analysis and observations, it will be interesting to note the conclusions of the authors on page484 of the June issue:

''...(c) We are prepared to accept any challenge from anyone in an open technical debate to demonstrate the near-infallibility of our research. (d) Our percentage in 27 months is 97.5% success, soaring beyond the theory of probability. (e) If only a period of nine months is taken, even then we do not fall below 80%. (f) We shall use 100 horoscopes in this paper though we have tested our research on more than a thousand by now..." From the analysis given using the probability theory it is evident that the above hypothesis of "Double-transit" may appear true in all horoscopes for all times if we use two or more than two significators, As such the empirical substantiation on 1000 horoscopes is nothing but a deceptive outcome of the awry research. With this kind of reports it is better not to claim any 'Supra - Scientific' validity for Hindu astrology.

The students of astrology can have a very valuable lesson from the series of articles discussed above: " Hi-fi language, challenging tones & quotations from old Pandits need not reflect the Scientific Content." The above discussion can be applied to the article 'Close timing of Marriage III' (December 1986 issue of A.M.) to disprove the same. All the four rules given on page 931 lose its validity. - 000 -