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In energy intensive industries, volatile natural gas prices can wreak havoc on the bottom line, not to mention the headaches incurred by management and shareholders. Volatile natural gas prices can, and often do, have a significant impact on the bottom line. If these volatile costs arent actively managed, they can lead a company to exceed budget forecasts, or worse, lower or non-existent profit margins. Although there are many factors that affect natural gas prices, weather, natural gas storage inventories, and economics conditions, as well as the markets perception of these factors, are the primary factors that drive natural gas prices. Most large natural gas end-users can mitigate their exposure to volatile and potentially rising natural gas costs, as well as diesel fuel and electricity costs, through hedging. Hedging allows market participants, such as aggregate producers which consume large quantities of natural gas and other energy commodities, to lock in prices and margins in advance, while reducing the potential impact of volatile and rising natural gas prices. The primary reason that many large, natural gas-consuming companies hedge their natural gas costs is that the fluctuating price of gas can present large financial risks that have a significant impact on the bottom line. Another reason for hedging a companys exposure to natural gas price risk is to improve or maintain the competitiveness of the firm. Very few companies are not subject to competition; they compete with other domestic companies in their sector as well as with companies located in other countries that produce similar goods for sale in the global marketplace. As a result, by having the ability to know and/or manage their future natural gas costs, many companies can establish a competitive advantage in their market.
Most natural gas consumers can mitigate their exposure to volatile natural gas prices through hedging.
The primary instruments used to hedge natural gas are swaps, futures, and options. Natural gas futures contracts are firm commitments to make or accept delivery of a specified quantity and quality of a natural gas during a specific month in the future at a price agreed upon at the time the commitment is made. In the United States, natural gas futures are traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). Natural gas swaps are contracts in which two parties agree to exchange periodic payments for natural gas. In the most common type of natural gas swap, one party agrees to pay a fixed price for natural gas on specific dates to a counterparty who, in turn, agrees to pay a floating price for natural gas that references a published price, such as the NYMEX natural gas futures. A natural gas option contract is a contract that gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a specified amount of natural gas (or a natural gas swap or futures contract) at a specified price within a specified time in exchange for paying an upfront premium. Breaking down the options even further, there are call options and put options. A natural gas call option is a contract that gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy natural gas at a set price (the strike price) on a given date. A natural gas put option is a contract that gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to sell natural gas at a set price (the strike price) on a given date.
Hedging in Action
The following provides a simple example of how an aggregate company can use a natural gas call option to avoid an increase in natural gas costs while allowing you to obtain lower priced natural gas should prices decline. Assume that on June 1, you anticipate that your natural gas demand for January will be 10,000 MMBTU (million British thermal units) and you want to ensure that your cost will not rise above the current market price for natural gas to be delivered during the month of January. As such, you decide to buy a call option on $4.50 January natural gas for $0.50. The current price for spot (cash) natural gas may be lower or higher than $4.50, but that is immaterial because you arent contracting for spot gas, you are buying an option on a contract for January natural gas. On Dec. 24 (the last day of trading before the option
expires), you will have the ability to exercise the option if it is in your economic interest to do so. The following grid shows two possible scenarios: the January natural gas contract expiring at $3.00, or the January natural gas contract expiring at $6.00. It is important to note that regardless of where natural gas is trading in January, you will not pay more than $5.00 for January gas (including the option premium) due to the fact that you paid the upfront premium of $0.50.
Conclusion
There are numerous ways to reduce your exposure to volatile and potentially high natural gas prices, including futures, swaps, and options. By developing and implementing a sound natural gas hedging program, aggregate producers will not only be able to mitigate their risk to volatile natural gas prices, but will also be able to accurately forecast their natural gas costs and potentially provide their companies with a competitive advantage.
Mercatus Energy Advisors is the leading, independent, energy risk management advisory firm. We provide our clients with innovative solutions in the financial and physical energy commodity markets through a comprehensive suite of quantitative and qualitative services. For more information, please call us at +1.713.970.1003 (Houston) or +44.20.3239.1860 (London) or visit our website at www.mercatusenergy.com. 2012 Mercatus Energy Advisors. All Rights Reserved.