C I V I L - M I L I T A R Y

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C E N T R E

Afghanistan
Week 06 07 February 2012

Review

Comprehensive Information on Complex Crises

INSIDE THIS ISSUE

Economic Development Governance & Rule of Law Security & Force Protection Social & Strategic Infrastructure

This document provides a weekly overview of developments in Afghanistan from 01 February 06 February 2012, with hyper-links to source material highlighted in blue and underlined in the text. For more information on the topics below or other issues pertaining to events in Afghanistan, contact the members of the Afghanistan Team, or visit our website at www.cimicweb.org.

DISCLAIMER
The Civil-Military Fusion Centre (CFC) is an information and knowledge management organisation focused on improving civil-military interaction, facilitating information sharing and enhancing situational awareness through the CimicWeb portal and our weekly and monthly publications. CFC products are based upon and link to open-source information from a wide variety of organisations, research centres and media outlets. However, the CFC does not endorse and cannot necessarily guarantee the accuracy or objectivity of these sources.

To Our Readers You will note that this week the Afghanistan Review newsletter includes four rather than six sections. The CFCs Afghanistan Team will now be divided amongst the following sectors: Economic Development, Governance & Rule of Law, Security & Force Protection and Social & Strategic Infrastructure. Socio-cultural development issues will now be addressed within this final sector given the inherent linkages between infrastructure (e.g., schools and clinics) and the services provided through them (e.g., education and healthcare). Humanitarian topics will be addressed in special sections as humanitarian crises or issues emerge. We hope that this approach will help to draw particular attention to such issues and stories. This shift does not reflect a diminished commitment to either socio-cultural development or humanitarian needs. Thank you for reading. The Afghanistan Team

Economic Development

Steven A. Zyck steve.zyck@cimicweb.org

CFC publications are independently produced by Knowledge Managers and do not reflect NATO or ISAF policies or positions of any other organisation.
The CFC is part of NATO Allied Command Operations.

fghanistans economy could face a serious downturn as foreign security and aid spending dries up in the coming years, reports The New York Times. The World Bank predicts that aid to Afghanistan by 2018 will be 10% of what it is today. One expert told The New York Times that Afghanistan currently has a bubble economy which is in the process of deflating, costing thousands of Afghans their jobs and livelihoods in the process. Many Afghans, including many who repatriated to Afghanistan after 2001, are preparing to close their businesses, sell their property and depart the country. Productivity at local factories is reportedly declining, and demand for foreign cars is plummeting. Property values, which rose rapidly in recent years, are deflating. In addition, The New York Times says that the Afghan government has had a hard time supporting national industries. Now that the Afghan army is responsible for purchasing a portion of its own supplies, they have begun importing cheap Chinese and Pakistani boots for its soldiers rather than buying them from their former Afghan supply company. Amid concerns about reduced foreign spending in Afghanistan, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) signed an agreement to provide USD 800 million to the Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund (ARTF), according to Tolo News. The funds are intended to support agriculture, health, training and reconstruction. This grant is part of a move by USAID to provide a significant amount of its aid to the Afghan government or through funds, such as the ARTF, which support the governments operations and priority programmes. In the past, USAID has provided only 5% of its aid to the ARTF but is aiming to provide 35% of its assistance through the fund in the future. This may have implications for the Afghan economy, according to a 2009 report from Peace Dividend Trust (PDT). The report found that funds spent through the Afghan government were much more likely to benefit the local economy than funds spent through foreign companies and non-profit organisations. A representative of Afghanistans Carpet Association told Tolo News that carpet production in Afghanistan has fallen by 70% over the past two years. The high cost of raw materials and the lack of weaving facilities are cited as two major causes of the decline. While the Ministry of Commerce and Industries (MoCI) says that it has built industrial parks with carpet production

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For further information, contact: Afghanistan Team Leader steve.zyck@cimicweb.org The Afghanistan Team afghanistan@cimicweb.org

facilities in Nangarhar and Faryab provinces, Tolo News reportedly found that the Nangarhar facility had not yet been constructed, despite the fact that funding was allocated three years ago. In addition to domestic factors, the low value of the Pakistani rupee relative to the afghani is also contributing to a downturn in the Afghan carpet industry. Pakistani traders had previously purchased Afghan carpets but now do so less frequently given that, in rupee terms, Afghan carpets have become more expensive. Several mining articles emerged this week. According to Mining Weekly, Kilo Goldmines, a Canadian firm that won the rights to one of the four blocks at the Hajigak iron ore deposit late last year, will soon complete related contract negotiations with the Afghan government. Kilo plans to spend two years exploring its blocks followed by a two-year feasibility study. Accordingly, extraction at Kilos Hajigak block would not begin until 2016, which is on par with the anticipated start date for a consortium of Indian companies which won the rights to the other three blocks of the iron ore deposit in central Afghanistan. Many of these same Indian firms are also planning to bid for the rights to gold and copper deposits in four Afghan provinces, says Reuters. The Afghan Ministry of Mines (MoM) has requested expressions of interest from mining companies or consortia by 09 March. Humanitarian Update The New York Times reports that at least 22 children have died in informal settlements around Kabul due to the harsh winter conditions. All were under the age of five. The article indicates that the deaths draw renewed attention to the basic humanitarian needs of many Afghans, which some aid workers say have been overlooked in an emphasis on reconstruction and long-term development. For instance, Michael Keating, the United Nations humanitarian coordinator in Afghanistan, told The New York Times, There are 35,000 people in those camps in the middle of Kabul, with no heat or electricity in the middle of winter; thats a humanitarian crisis. I just dont think the humanitarian story is sufficiently understood here. Youve got a lot of people who really are in dire straits.

Some truck drivers and business owners in Mazar-e Sharif told the Institute for War and Peace Reporting (IWPR) that new pollution-control measures have hindered their livelihoods. Authorities have forced brick kilns and other factories to relocate out of the city centre, prevented trucks from driving in the city during the day and impounded older, high-emissions cars. While provincial officials indicate that these changes have reduced pollution and improved the quality of life in the city, forced relocations have hurt some factory owners and their employees, who must travel a greater distanceto work. In addition, preventing trucks from entering the city during the day has made it more difficult for truck drivers and the businesses they serve. Some indicate that the new regulations are selectively enforced and that those who pay bribes are allowed to drive trucks in the city any time of day and operate factories in the city. In regional news, a delegation from Afghanistans Ministry of Finance (MoF) participated in economic coordination meetings with their Iranian counterparts, says Khaama Press. The meetings yielded an agreement, with specific timelines attached, for promoting future economic cooperation. Most notably, the two countries discussed the Chabahar port in Iran, which many Afghan businesses use to import and export goods. The two countries agreed to assess customs issues and development of investments at the Chabahar Port. The Afghan and Iranian officials also pledged to increase their bilateral trade and to prevent relations between the two countries from being harmed by political relations with other nations.

Governance & Rule of Law

Stefanie Nijssen stefanie.nijssen@cimicweb.org

S Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta said that the United States hopes to end its combat mission and shift to a training, advisory and assistance role in Afghanistan by mid-2013, more than a year earlier than previously scheduled, The Washington Post reported. Panetta said that the United States would still be actively engaged in helping Afghan forces operate beyond that point in time. According to The Washington Times, US intelligence and counterterrorism officials highlighted that, despite the end of the combat mission in 2013, American combat forces will stay in Afghanistan until the end of 2014. They also reportedly noted that the US governments commitment to Afghanistan would continue long beyond 2013 and 2014. Tolo News, citing NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, reported that NATO will stand by its previously agreed plan to wind down operations in Afghanistan by the end of 2014 and that any changes to the schedule would need to be coordinated among coalition nations. Rasmussen told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) that he expects the last provinces to be handed over to the Afghan security forces by mid-2013. From that time, Afghan security forces are in the lead all over Afghanistan. Details of the transition will be high on the agenda for the NATO Summit in Chicago, which will take place in May 2012, reports The Chicago SunTimes. The Financial Times is reporting that Afghan officials have urged the US government to stick to its previously-set timetable for withdrawing its troops in 2014. We would like the American troops to leave according to the schedule which has already been agreed, Sediq Sediqqi, a spokesman for Afghanistans Ministry of Interior (MoI), said. A classified NATO report seen by BBC News claimed that the Taliban remains defiant and have wide support among the Afghan people. The report is based on material from 27,000 interrogations with more than 4,000 captured Taliban, al-Qaeda and other foreign fighters and civilians. Moreover, the BBC says the document details widespread collaboration between the insurgents and Afghan police and military. It also concludes that in the last year, there has been significant interest among Afghans, including amongst members of the Afghan government, in joining the Taliban. It states the following: Afghan civilians frequently prefer 07 February 2012 Page 2

Taliban governance over the Afghan government, usually as a result of government corruption. According to BBC News, the leaked report also claims that the Taliban is being assisted directly by Pakistans Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency. It says that Pakistan is aware of the locations of senior Taliban leaders and that [s]enior Taliban representatives, such as Nasiruddin Haqqani, maintain residences in the immediate vicinity of ISI headquarters in Islamabad. Pakistan dismissed the claims made in the leaked report, according to Bloomberg. A spokesman for NATOs International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) told The New York Times that [t]his document aggregates the comments of Taliban detainees in a captive environment without considering the validity of or motivation behind their reflections. Any conclusions drawn from this would be questionable at best. Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar said Pakistan has no hidden agenda in Afghanistan, according to Voice of America (VoA) News. Khar made the comments a day after visiting Afghanistan, where she met with President Hamid Karzai and pledged Pakistans support for an Afghan-led peace process. Pajhwok Afghan News says that Khar also invited Karzai to attend a trilateral meeting among Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran in mid-February. During her visit, Khar also met with several members of the main opposition party, including Abdullah Abdullah, reports Pajhwok. Khar said it was of utmost importance to involve all Afghan political leaders and movements in Afghanistan in the reconciliation process and in the talks with the insurgency. According to Agence-France Presse, Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani arrived in Qatar on 06 February to discuss Afghan peace efforts. Although Gilani has routinely expressed support for the Afghan peace efforts, Pakistani officials say the primary purpose of Gilanis trip to Qatar is to boost economic ties with regional actors in the Gulf. Humanitarian Update The United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) announced it would overhaul its strategy to help Afghan refugees return to their home country, reports Agence France Presse (AFP). UNHCR said it will invest in communities, health and education in order to create more attractive conditions for Afghans wishing to return. The head of UNHCR recently met with Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar and discussed the agreement reached in Dubai earlier this week among Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan and UNHCR to pursue a regional strategy aimed at finding durable solutions to the Afghan refugee situation.

The Taliban has denied planning preliminary peace talks with Afghan government officials in Saudi Arabia, a Taliban spokesman told the BBC. The purported talks were reportedly intended to be separate from planned negotiations between the insurgents and the United States in Qatar, where the Taliban has announced plans to set up an office.

Bloomberg has reported that Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is likely to sign off on an agreement that will allow NATO to ship supplies out of Afghanistan via Russian territory, Kommersant said, citing unidentified officials in Russias Foreign Ministry. More specifically, EurasiaNet is reporting that a logistical transport hub will be set up in the Volga region to assist the withdrawal of supplies. NATO materials will be flown from Afghanistan to the transport hub, from which they will travel by rail to Estonia or Latvia. Uzbekistans territory is currently being used for the shipment of supplies to Afghanistan; however, the Uzbek government has been concerned about allowing supplies to leave Afghanistan via Uzbekistan since doing so could contribute to problems such as trafficking in weapons and drugs. According to Tolo News, revenue collected by the Afghan Ministry of Transport and Civil Aviation (MoTCA) has increased by 30% compared to last year. MoTCA officials said much of the additional income is derived from air transit taxes. Better transport management system and the installation of radar stations in 26 provinces have helped increase ministry revenues, officials added. The Washington Post is reporting that a Sikh man is being held for falsely claiming Afghan citizenship despite the fact that he has lived in Afghanistan most of his life. Religious minorities, who make up about 1% of the Afghan population, are still routinely ostracised in Afghanistan, says The Washington Post. Life for Sikhs has become especially hard in recent years, according to Sikh community leader Awtar Singh, a former lawmaker. Job prospects for Sikhs are bleak outside of Sikh enclaves, and the Afghan government reportedly refuses to allow members of this monitory group to open cremation facilities despite the fact that cremation is an important religious tradition for Sikhs.

Security & Force Protection

Mark Checchia mark.checchia@cimicweb.org

ATO members and allies are tackling the issue of how to pay for Afghanistans security forces after the Afghan government assumes responsibility for security in 2014, the Associated Press reports. A two-day meeting in Brussels included defence ministers from NATOs 28 member countries and 22 other nations which are involved in Afghanistan. Austerity measures and budget cuts are reportedly making it difficult to secure national contributions to finance the Afghan army and police. According to Tolo News, British Defence Secretary Philip Hammond said ministers would consider What should be the long term size of the Afghan security forces and how are we going to share the cost of supporting that between different members of the international community. The Afghan army and police are scheduled to grow to more than 350,000 members by 2014. However, some officials have suggested that the size of the Afghan forces can be cut in order to reduce costs without jeopardising security in Afghanistan, reports the Associated Press. A reasonable number would be 230,000, French Defence Minister Gerard Longuet said.

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A United Nations report says that the number of civilian deaths in Afghanistan reached 3,021 in 2011, an 8% rise relative to the previous year and the highest level in a decade, according to an article in the Telegraph. The report attributes this rise to homemade landmines which explode indiscriminately and the Taliban insurgencys increasingly complex suicide attacks, sometimes involving multiple suicide bombers, and designed to yield greater numbers of dead and injured civilians. Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) assumed security responsibility from Spanish troops in parts of Badghis province, reports Tolo News. The ANSF now are fully responsible for security in the capital, Qala-e Naw, and the Aab Kamary district. Spain has approximately 1,500 troops committed to NATOs International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), most of which are in Qala-e Naw. This transfer is part of the second phase of the security transition, which will end with the ANSF being responsible for security across the country by 2014. The first phase of the transition was completed in July 2011. French troops handed over Tagab military base in Kapisa province to the Afghan National Army (ANA) on 03 February, according to Khaama Press. The hand-over took place two weeks after an Afghan soldier killed four French troops at the base. France has nearly 4,000 troops supporting the ISAF mission in Afghanistan; most of them are based in Kapisa province. The French government plans to withdraw about 3,600 of its troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2013 An ISAF press release says that an individual wearing an ANA uniform turned his weapon against an ISAF service member in southern Afghanistan on 31 January, killing one service member. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported that the suspect was taken into custody by Afghan troops. According to the Associated Press, the ANAs chief, General Sayed Malluk, confirmed that the shooting took place during a night patrol in Helmand province. The suspect reportedly claims that the shooting was an accident. A car bomb exploded near a police headquarters in Kandahar city on 05 February, killing 7 and injuring 19, Tolo News reported. Five of the dead were police officers. Those injured included six police and 13 civilians. The most recent Police Perception Survey by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) says that almost 80% of Afghans do not believe the Afghan National Police (ANP) are currently capable of maintaining order without assistance from international forces, according to Reuters. However, about three quarters of those surveyed think the ANP will be ready to provide security and address criminality by 2014. The Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission (AIHRC) rejected parts of the survey, particular the portion which stated that nearly 80% of Afghan citizens believe the ANP are aware of Afghan law. The AIHRC was careful to point out, however, that an awareness of the law does not necessarily mean that the law is being followed by the ANP. The US Department of Defense (DoD) says the cost of the war in Afghanistan has dropped in the last few months, according to Business Week. The bill for operations fell to USD 5.3 billion per month for October and November 2011. This is down from the average of USD 7.8 billion per month in the fiscal year that ended in September 2011. The DoD says that the continuing withdrawal of US troops produced the drop in cost.

Social & Strategic Infrastructure

Rainer Gonzalez rainer.gonzalez@cimicweb.org

Humanitarian Update The snowfalls in northern Afghanistan are having major impacts on the transportation sector. Bakhtar News reported that Samangans provincial roads are currently closed, including the Aibak-Kabul highway. Similarly, in Badakhshan province, the residents of 13 districts are facing serious problems as a result of the blocked roads, which are causing a shortage of basic goods. According to Pajjhwok, the same snowfalls have caused avalanches which killed four residents. On 05 February, the Salang Pass, a vital route that connects Kabul with the north of the country, was reopened to traffic, reported Pajhwok.

uring the course of last week, two new television channels were inaugurated in Afghanistan, reports Pajhwok Afghan News. The first channel, Rasaa TV, was launched on 31 January. The second channel, which will be entirely in Dari, is the product of a joint initiative between Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Iran. The idea for the Dari-language station was first proposed by the former Iranian President, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani in 1991. However, subsequent insecurity in Afghanistan and Tajikistan resulted in the project being placed on hold. In 2006, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad proposed the project again, and, in 2008, the three countries agreed on the overall direction of the channel. However, the project was again delayed due to disagreements among the three countries involved over the type of content to be broadcast. Officials from Afghanistans Ministry of Communication and Information Technology (MCIT) told Pajhwok that these issues will be resolved during an upcoming meeting.

In other news, residents of Helmand province complained that the current power supply in the city is not meeting their needs, according to Pajhwok. Similarly, Kabul residents allege that electricity is frequently cut off in residential areas while commercial and government facilities go un-affected by cuts, reports Pajwhok. Officials from Afghanistans state-owned utility company, Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat (DABS), said that the cuts were needed because of the heavy load on the transformers. They indicated that DABS focuses upon supplying businesses and government offices with power during the workday while providing electricity to households in the evenings.

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On 03 February, the first Afghan commercial railway commenced operations between Hairatan (on the Afghan-Uzbek border) and the city of Mazar-e Sharif in Afghanistans Balkh province, reports the Railway Gazette. The first train arrived at Naibabad station, just few kilometres East of Mazar-e Sharif, loaded with nine containers filled with flour from Kazakhstan and three containers filled with timber from Siberia. The 75-km line, which cost USD 165 million, is being operated by the Uzbekistan state railway corporation under a three-year concession. In addition, a number of individual social and infrastructure developments were reported by the media during the course of the past week (see the map, below): a. b. c. d. As many as 6,000 teachers have completed an in-service training course in Kunduz province, reports Pajhwok. The training lasted for three years and was funded by the World Bank. The Ministry of Education (MoE) started to distribute land plots to teachers in Laghman province, details Pajhwok. The MoE expects that with the handing over of land plots, the retention rates of teachers will increase. According to Bakhtar News Agency, a new medical centre has been opened in Maroof district in Kandahar province. The centre, which will be open 24 hours per day, has eight rooms and employs 16 medical personnel. A new womens empowerment centre is being constructed in the campus of the American University of Afghanistan, reports Pajhwok. The centre, funded by the US government at a cost of USD 5 million, will offer short and mid-length courses to broaden economic opportunities for women. Eight tonnes of substandard and expired medicines were burnt in Nangarhar province, notes Pajhwok. The medicines were seized from 65 stores. Afghan authorities threatened to revoke the licenses of businesses caught selling the medicines. Bakhtar says that construction related to 40 utility projects has begun in Helmand. The projects, which will be managed by the Helmand Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT), focus on issues such as agriculture, education and irrigation. A new bridge connecting the cities of Qarghayi and Mendrawol in Laghman province has been finished, according to a press release from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Another 300-metre-long bridge in Lalpura district in Nangarhar province has been inaugurated, reports Pajhwok. The bridge was funded and constructed under the supervision of the local PRT at a cost of USD 6.5 million. The US Ambassador to Afghanistan, Ryan Crocker, pledged USD 30 million to fund several projects in Ghazni province, according to Pajhwok. The initiative, which is framed under the 2013 Islamic Culture Capital, will span the implementation of several health, education, training and irrigation projects.
Source: Modified from Perry-Castaneda Library Map

e. f. g.

h.

i.

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Recent Readings & Resources

Transition in the Afghanistan-Pakistan War, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), January 2012, by Anthony H. Cordesman. Afghanistan, Annual Report 2011: Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict, United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) and the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Right (UNHCHR), January 2012. Doing Business 2012: Afghanistan, World Bank and the International Finance Corporation (IFC), January 2012. Return to Kandahar, The Real News (DVD), 2012, by Nelofer Pazira

The readings and resources above were brought to the attention of the CFCs Afghanistan Team during the course of the past several weeks. The CFC does not endorse any of these documents or their content. If you would like to recommend a report or website for this section of the Afghanistan Review, please send the file or reference to Afghanistan@cimicweb.org. The CFC welcomes all recommendations but is not obliged to print them.

Afghanistan Events Calendar Regional Economic Cooperation Conference on Afghanistan. The fifth Regional Economic Cooperation Conference on Afghanistan (RECCA) will be held in the capital of Tajikistan, Dushanbe, on 26-27 March 2012. The conference will focus on strategies for enhancing commercial cooperation within Central and South Asia and beyond. President Hamid Karzai will reportedly be leading Afghanistans delegation at the RECCA conference. Agricultural Development for Afghanistan Pre-Deployment Training. The United States Department of Agriculture (www.usda.gov) and a consortium of American universities deliver this training. The curriculum will meet the needs of all deploying United States Government personnel in support of the USG Agriculture Strategy in Afghanistan. The training is for United States Government personnel and will take place in Fresno, California on the following dates: 26-31 MAR, 02-07 APR and 18-23 JUN. Participants will be enrolled on a first come first serve basis. Contact Ryan Brewster, US Department of Agriculture, at ryan.brewster@fas.usda.gov for further information. Field Security Management Course. The Centre for Safety and Development (CSD) will be holding its Field Security Management course in Afghanistan from 13-15 May 2012. The course reportedly addresses topics such as the following: Security Management, Context Analysis, risk assessment, security strategies and procedures, contingency planning, incident reporting and the development of action plans. Further information is available here.

If you are a CFC account-holder and would like your notice to appear here, please send all relevant details to Afghanistan@cimicweb.org. The CFC is not obliged to print any notice that it receives, and the CFC retains the right to revise notices for clarity and appropriateness. Any notices submitted for publication in the Afghanistan Review newsletter should be relevant to Afghanistan and to the CFCs mission as a knowledge management and information sharing institution.

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