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CMSC 105 LABORATORY ACTIVITY 4

Objective: To be able to apply the concepts of continuous random variable and its corresponding probability distribution in solving probability problems and to be able to compute probabilities using probability density functions and distribution tables. Instructions: Show each solution to all answers. Create a document and name it AnsLab4.??? (document format of your choice). Save it in your account folder (stored in the Z: drive) under CMSC105 subdirectory name.

1. Let X be a continuous random variable denoting the time to failure of a component. Suppose the distribution function of X is F(x). Use this distribution function to express the probability of the following events: 1.1. 9 < X < 90 1.2. X < 90 2. Jobs arriving to a computer server have been found to require CPU time that can be modeled by an exponential distribution with parameter 1=140 ms1. The CPU scheduling discipline is quantum-oriented so that a job not completing within a quantum of 100 ms will be routed back to the tail of the queue of waiting jobs. Find the probability that an arriving job is forced to wait for a second quantum. Of the 800 jobs coming in during a day, how many are expected to finish within the first quantum? a. P(X > 100) = e ^ (*X) = e^((-1/140)(100)) = 0.4895416596

3. The time it takes to complete a service call to a mail-order computer company has exponential -1 distribution with an average of 4 minutes, i.e., = 1/4 min . Within what time will 90% of the calls be completed? P( X < x) = 1 - e ^ (l*X) 0.90 = 1 - e ^ ((-1/4)*X) - (0.90 1 = -e ^ ((-1/4)*X)) ln(0.10 = e ^ ((-1/4)*X)) x = -4(ln(0.10)) x = 9.210340372 mins 4. The time between failures of a particular electronic component has approximately an exponential -1 distribution with the average of 1200 hours (i.e., = 1/1200 hrs ). 4.1. What is the probability that a component operates at least 2000 hours without a failure? P( X > 2000) = 1 (1- (e^(-1/1200)*2000)) = e^(-1/1200)*2000 = 0.1888756028 4.2. What is the probability that it operates between 500 and 2500 hours? P(X < 500) = 1 e^((-1/1200)*(500)) = 0.3407593698 P(X < 2500) = 1 e^((-1/1200)*(2500)) = 0.8754855286 P(500 < X < 2500) = P(X < 2500) - P(X < 500) = 0.8754855286 0.3407593698 = 0.5347261588

4.3. Suppose that a circuit is constructed so that two identical components operate in parallel (so that the system fails only if both fail), and their failures occur independently. What is the probability that this circuit will operate for at least 2000 hours without a failure? 5. The CPU requirement of a typical program measured in minutes is found to follow a Gamma (r = 3; = 1/2) distribution. What is the probability that the CPU demand of a program will exceed 1 min? 6. A program consists of 3 blocks. Compilation time for each block is exponentially distributed with -1 the same parameter = 1 sec , and it is independent of the compilation of other blocks. Compute the probability that the whole program compiles in less than 2.5 seconds. This problem uses Exponential Continuous Distribution since it talks about Compilation time which is exponentially distributed. Let, T = time Solution: P(T < 2.5s) = the probability that the whole program compiles in less than 2.5 seconds = F(2.5) = 1 e ^ (*T) = 1 e (-2.5) = 0.9179150014 0.918 7. Let Z be a Standard Normal random variable. Compute Using the Standard Normal Table,

7.1. P(Z 0.97) = F(0.97) = 0.834 7.2. P(Z > 0.97) = 1 P(Z < 0.97) = 1 0.834 = 0.166 7.3. P(|Z| 0.97) = P(Z 0.97) P(Z -0.97) = 0.834 0.166 = 0.668 7.4. P(Z < -5.0) 0 practically zero, since there is only a very small area under the density curve to the left of Z. 7.5. P(Z > -5.0) 1 practically one, since if we plot it on the curve, it will nearly contain the entire area of the curve. 8. Let X be a Normal random variable with parameters = 8 and = 3.5. Compute First, we must standardize all the given values, after that, we will then use the table.

Given the formula, Z =( x - ) / 8.1. P(X < 0) = P( Z < (0-8)/3.5) = P(Z < -2.29) = 0.011

8.2. P(X > 15) = P(Z > (15-8)/3.5 = P(Z > 2) = 0.0228

8.3. P(|X| < 2) = P(-2 < X < 2) = P([(-2-8)/3.5] < Z < [(2-8)/3.5]) = P(-2.86 < Z < -1.71) = 0.0436 0.0021 = 0.0415

9. Lifetimes of VLSI chips manufactured by a semiconductor manufacturer are approximately 6 5 normally distributed with = 5 x 10 h and = 5 x 10 h. A computer manufacturer requires that at 6 least 95% of a batch should have a lifetime greater than 4 x 10 h. Will the deal be made? Given: X has a normal distribution with, 6 = 5 x 10 h 5 = 5 x 10 h Solution: P(X > 4 x 10^6) = P(Z > (4x10^6 5x10^6) / 5x10^5) = P(Z > -2) = P(Z < 2) = F(2) = 0.9772

10. The scoring of modern IQ tests is such that Intelligence Quotients (IQs) have normal distribution with = 100 and = 15. Given: X = IQ test score which has a Normal distribution with, = 100 = 15 10.1. What percent of people have IQ less than 80? P(X < 80) = P( Z < (80-100)/15) = P(Z < -1.33) = 0.0918 = 9.18%

10.2. What percent of people have IQ greater than 120? P(X > 120) = P( Z > (120-100)/15) = P(Z > 1.33) =1 - P(Z < 1.33) = 1 0.9082 = 0.0918 = 9.18%

10.3. UPC International is a non-profit organization that accepts only people with IQ within the top 2%. What level of IQ qualifies one to be a member of UPC? Using the formula, x = + z First, we must look up the table.

Given that we are to solve, P(X > x) which is equal to solving the complement of x. We shall look at the table of normal distribution with probability 1 0.02 which is equal to 0.98. In the table, the closest value to 0.98 is 0.9798 which corresponds to z = 2.05.

Therefore, x = 100 + (2.05)(15) = 130.75 Thus, a member of UPC must have a starting IQ of 130.75.