Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
In order to understand the effect of Global Warming in the strength and frequency
of tropical cyclones, in this case hurricanes, it is important to understand what is
global warming, how it forms and how hurricanes can relate to it. In recent years
there has been a growing hype in the media coverage and the general public‟s
views of Global Warming. Global Warming is loosely defined as the increase of
mean temperatures in the sum total of the Earth‟s system from a certain period in
time 1. For the 20th century Global Warming, scientists usually refer to the increase
in temperatures since the early 1900s to the current time (or the past 100 years).
The causes of the warming are not clear; however the United Nations
Intergovernmental Panel in Climate Change, also known as the UN IPCC,
suggests that it has been cause by increased radiative forcing of the troposphere
by the introduction of a „foreign‟ agent, which in this case is Carbon Dioxide gas
(CO2) 2. It is very important to note that Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is not a foreign agent
in the surface troposphere but it is a naturally occurring trace gas in it with a
concentration of 387 parts per million per volume in the atmosphere.
According to the UN IPCC over the last 100 years the Earth has warmed 0.54°C
above average 3. This warming measurement however has a +/- 0.18°C margin of
error which is a considerably large 33% margin of error 4. This is the official margin
of error however there is evidence suggesting that a larger margin of error may be
present; Stephen Schneider, lead IPCC 2007 (FAR) author said: “To capture the
public‟s imagination, we have to offer up some scary scenarios, make simplified
dramatic statements and little mention of any doubts one might have; each of us
has to decide the right balance between being effective and being honest” 5.
Hurricanes are systems of extreme low pressure that develop from August to
October in the Atlantic Ocean 6. They are not fully understood; until now there is
insufficient empirical and conclusive evidence to say how they are formed 7.
Hurricanes tend to develop over warm, deep oceans in autumn where the
temperatures exceed 26°C. They develop between latitudes 5° and 20° North or
South as they cannot „spin‟ closer to the equator because there would be a lack of
Coriolis force. Once the Hurricanes are formed they move westbound in
unpredictable and irregular routes. The hurricane‟s power and strength declines
very fast when its heat source is removed; this happens by moving into colder
© 2008 Gabriel Mauricio Gutiérrez Salas
waters, land or otherwise 8. Hurricanes would, in general, be stronger when the
ocean temperature is hotter and thus an intense Global Warming would, in theory,
increase the force of the hurricane. This however is only one factor, in many, that
affects the forces of the hurricane 9.
Hurricane strength and frequency in the United States Atlantic Coast from
1851 to 2006
Table 1 shows the total number of hurricanes to strike the Atlantic United States
Coast divided by decade. The categories are based on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Scale 10 shown below:
The average number of hurricanes that hit the United States per decade is 17.9
hurricanes; this means that every year 1.79 hurricanes (2 for practical purposes)
are expected to hit the United States Atlantic coast.
The decade with the highest hurricane frequency (the decade with the most
hurricanes hits) has been by far 1941 to 1950. The United States‟ Atlantic coast
received 24 hurricanes during this decade and ten of them were Major Hurricanes.
Major Hurricanes are hurricanes that reach surface wind speeds of 111 miles per
hour (50 m/s or 96 knots); they are correspondent to categories 3, 4 and 5 of the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale 12. Out of the ten major hurricanes in that decade
nine were Category 3, one was Category 4 and there were no Category 5
hurricanes.
The decade with the lowest hurricane frequency was 1971 to 1980. The United
States‟ Atlantic coast only received twelve hurricanes; this is significantly lower
than the 17.9 average. Only four out of the twelve hurricanes were major
hurricanes and none of them were Category 4 or 5. The average number of major
hurricanes per decade is 6.2 so the decade‟s major hurricane frequency is also
below average.
From 1851 to the present there have only been three Category 5 hurricanes that hit
the United States: Hurricane FL (Keys) in 1935, Hurricane Camille in 1969 and
Hurricane Andrew in 1992. It is important to note that hurricanes where not given
names prior to 1950 and so hurricanes from 1851 to 1949 would be named after
the area where they landfall.
Hurricane FL (Keys) in 1935 has been the strongest hurricane to ever hit the
United States with a minimum pressure of 892 millibars and 26.35 inches. The
second strongest hurricane has been Hurricane Camille in 1969 with a minimum
pressure of 909 millibars and 26.84 inches. Hurricane Andrew in 1992 has been
the most recent Category 5 Hurricane and it has been the third strongest; he
follows FL (Keys) and Camille with a minimum pressure of 922 millibars and 27.23
inches. The damage caused by these hurricanes was catastrophic as they had
intense rainfall and surges of over 18 feet which shattered the urban areas in their
paths. Figure 1 shows the strike path of major hurricanes from 1931-1940;
Hurricane FL (Keys) is highlighted.
Fig. 115
Fig. 216
Figure 3 shows the strike path of major hurricanes from 1991-2000; Hurricane
Andrew is highlighted.
Fig. 317
Fig. 4
Total Number of Hurricanes from 1851-2006 divided by
category
3
Category
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Number of Hurricanes
Fig. 5
Total Number of Hurricanes by Decade
30
Total Number of Hurricanes
25
20
15
10
Hurricanes
5
Decade
Fig. 6
Number of Major Hurricanes divided by Decade
12
10
Number of Major Huricanes
4 Major Hurricanes
Decades
Figure 6 shows a similar pattern with the highest number of Major Hurricanes
occurring, again, in the 1941-1950 decade, and then sharply going down until
1990. From 1991 to the present there is a slight rise in the number of Major
Hurricanes however it still is considerably below the average and the rate of growth
is below the maximum (from 1871-1880).
Figure 7 shows the average temperature changes in the Continental United States
divided by decades from 1881 to 2006. As shown by Figure 7, American
Temperatures on average have increased since 1881. This increase has been of
0.54°C above the average (shown as 0 in Figure 7) has been an increase of
0.63°C since 1881 when the temperatures were lower than average 18. It is
important to note that temperatures prior to 1881 are proxy-based 19 and thus are
not included.
Fig. 7 Average Temperature Change Per Decade in the United States (NOAA)
0.6
0.55
Temperature change in °C (+/- 0.18)
0.5
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
-0.05
-0.1
-0.15
-0.2
-0.25
-0.3
-0.35
Decades
Average Global Temperature
Change Per Decade
Fig. 8
United States Temperature Changes from 1881 to
2006 (NOAA Data)
0.7
0.65
0.6
0.55
0.5
0.45
0.4
0.35
Change in Temperature °C (+/- 0.18)
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
-0.05
-0.1
-0.15
-0.2
-0.25
-0.3
-0.35
-0.4
-0.45
1956
1881
1886
1891
1896
1901
1906
1911
1916
1921
1926
1931
1936
1941
1946
1951
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Years
Temperature Change
The current warming trend can be explained by several other factors other than
CO2. There is nowhere in the current scientific literature that states that increased
concentrations of Carbon Dioxide gas (CO2) increases the temperature 24. One
other factor that can explain the increased temperatures is solar activity; this has
been suggested by Dr. Sami Solanksy of the Max Planck Institute for Solar System
Research in Germany 25. “The Sun has been at its strongest over the past 60 years
and may now be affecting global temperatures 26”. At this time correlations
between cosmic ray flux (caused by increased solar activity) and global warming
are suggestive but the research is inconclusive.
As shown by Figure 8 the warming trend started near 1906 and this cannot be
explained by CO2 emissions as the CO2 emissions at the time were small and
irrelevant as they could not have made a massive effect in the atmospheric
system. The cooling from 1941-1960 cannot be explained by CO2 emissions as
during the postwar economic boom they increased yet the temperature decreased.
Figure 9 shows the average temperature changes (shown in blue) compared to the
hurricane frequency (shown in red) per decade between 1881 and 2006:
Fig. 9
Hurricane Frequency compared to Change in Temperature
between 1881 and 2006 (Per Decade)
Number of Hurricanes
Temperature Change
30 0.6
0.55
0.5
25 0.45
0.4
Total Number of Hurricanes
0.35
1921-1930
1961-1970
1881-1890
1911-1920
1941-1950
1951-1960
2001-2006
1891-1900
1971-1980
1981-1990
1991-2000
Decades
Starting in 1971 the temperatures started to increase rapidly to record highs (in
recent history, recorded with instruments and not proxy-reconstructed); however
the hurricane levels for the three decades between 1971 and 2006 have been
below average with 15, 14 and 15 hurricanes respectively making landfall with the
United States‟ Atlantic Coast.
Fig. 10
Major Hurricane Frequency compared to Change
in Temperature between 1881 and 2006
Number of Hurricanes Temperature Change
12 0.6
0.55
0.5
Total Number of Major Hurricanes
10 0.45
0.4
0.35
1961-1970
1881-1890
1911-1920
1941-1950
1951-1960
2001-2006
1891-1900
1971-1980
1981-1990
1991-2000
Decades
From 1911-1920 the temperature experienced a slight increase however the major
hurricane number increased to above average levels. From 1921-1930 the
© 2008 Gabriel Mauricio Gutiérrez Salas
temperatures continued to experience a slow increase but the major hurricane
levels decreased to below average levels.
From 1931 to 1950 the temperatures started to stabilize and showed a tendency to
decrease however during doth decades the major hurricane levels were increasing
rapidly to above average levels and in the 1941-1950 decade the record was set.
During this decade the total number of major hurricanes reached a record high of
10 hurricanes which is 3.8 major hurricanes more than average, this is a significant
increase and it happened when temperatures were average.
From 1951 to 1970 the temperatures remained stable at average levels however
the number of major hurricanes decreased sharply from record highs to just below
average. From 1971 to 2000 the temperature increased rapidly to record highs
reached in 1998 (0.6° above average) however major hurricane frequency
remained stable experiencing a slight increase in the 1991-2000 decade but still
remaining below average levels. From 2001 to 2006 the number of major
hurricanes is slightly above average (+0.8) however the temperature even though it
decreased from 1998 by about 0.1°C it still remained 0.5° above average.
The strongest hurricane to hit the United States‟ Atlantic Coast was the Labor Day
Hurricane (FL KEYS) in 1935 (It was a category 5 Hurricane). This is surprising
because the temperature in 1935 was not only much lower than today but it
actually was -0.0495°C below average levels. This is surprising because
theoretically a year with a below average temperature would have a below average
hurricane number, major hurricane number and obviously it should not have the
strongest hurricane in recorded history.
This same pattern repeats again. The second strongest hurricane to hit the United
States‟ Atlantic Coast was Category 5 Hurricane Camille in 1969. Blaming
Camille‟s strength to Global Warming is not only irresponsible but it would also be
scientifically and historically inaccurately. The temperatures when Camille hit in
1969 were average.
Al Gore stated in his movie An Inconvenient Truth “For a long time, the scientists
have been telling us global warming increases the temperature of the top layer in
the ocean, and that causes the average hurricane to become a lot stronger. So, the
fact that the ocean temperatures did go up because of global warming, because of
man-made global warming, starting around in the late seventies and then we had a
string of unusually strong hurricanes outside the boundaries of this multi-decadal
cycle that is a real factor; there are scientists who point that out, and they're right,
but we're exceeding those boundaries now.” 27
1998 has been the hottest year on record however it has also been one of the
calmest years in recorded history when referring to hurricane strength and
frequency. In 1998 only 3 hurricanes hit the United States‟ Atlantic Coast. They
were Danny, Bonnie and Earl; categories 1, 2 and 1 respectively. Two of them
barely made it to the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Scale as they were borderline
tropical depressions and storms.
Conclusions
In conclusion Global Warming has had, if any, a minimal and irrelevant effect in the
strength and frequency of hurricanes that hit the United States‟ Atlantic coast
between 1851 and 2006. The data clearly shows that there is no correlation
whatsoever between hurricane frequency and change in temperature. This is
confirmed by the use of statistics. The data is suggestive but inconclusive in
respect to the relationship between major hurricane frequency and changes in
temperatures. It also shows that the general hurricane strength is unrelated to
temperature as 80% of the top ten strongest hurricanes in recorded history have
happened in years with average or below average temperatures. Only 2 of them
(and they were not the top two) Katrina and Andrew happened with above average
temperatures and they honestly failed to deliver. The effects of Katrina where
enormous but not because Katrina was a strong hurricane (It was category 3 at
landfall) but because New Orleans is a city basically built inside a bowl under sea
level protected by inferior dykes and levees that could not withstand the water
pressure and ended up „pooling‟ the water inside the city.
The data shows no evidence that temperatures play an important, if any, role in
hurricane strength and frequency. In order for the temperature to have an effect the
rise (or fall) of temperatures would have to be dramatically. Some scientists like