Is Economic Uncertainty Affecting FMCG Sales ?

1 CopyrlghL Symphonyl8l Croup, 2012. ConfldenLlal and roprleLary.
Tim Eales
Director of Strategic Insight
Topline Report Half Year (H2 2011)
Is economic uncertainty affecting FMCG sales?
2 Copyright SymphonyIRI Group, 2012. Confidential and Proprietary.
Key Findings
Economic pressure is impacting confidence levels which
have decreased across Europe mainly since second half of
2011, however the German economy is still performing strongly.
Purchasing power is under pressure due to increasing prices
which are impacting volume sales in most countries. Spain being
the exception.
The frugal shopper has become smarter, buying less and
more wisely - leveraging from the multiple sources of information
and the multi-channel opportunities.
Unique context: Prices are rising faster than earnings so this
means Consumer Recession.
After a short lull, promotional activity increased again in
second half of 2011, most noticeably in the UK and Germany,
mainly driven by the Food products price increase and
consumption slowdown. A similar trend is developing in The
Netherlands, France and Italy.
Own Labels are challenging national brands with share
increasing everywhere except in France and competing with
increased trade promotion in some countries.
PRICE RISES
PROMOTION IS
GROWING
SMART SHOPPER
2.0
-0.7
-0.5
0.3
0.8
-7.0
1.4
Germany France Netherlands Italy Spain UK Greece
GDP Growth Q4 2011 - % change vs. previous year
Source : Eurostat Q4 11 - Published 15
th
February 2011
Growth rates of GDP in volume
(based on seasonally adjusted data)
Euro area GDP up by 0.7%
December 2011
EU (27) Unemployment rate up from 9.5% in Jan 11 to 9.9%
4.9
8.4
8.9
9.9
19.2
22.9
5.5
Netherlands Germany UK Italy France Greece Spain
Source : Eurostat Sept 11
(4.3) (6.4) (7.8) (8.2) (9.6) (14.7) (20.5)
OCT 11
OCT 11
3.8
4.0
3.3
4.2
-0.2
4.5
2.4
Netherlands Germany UK Italy France Greece Spain
FMCG Growth H2 2011 - % change vs. previous year
-0.6
-0.2
0.7
0.3
-0.7
3.9
-2.2
VALUE TREND
VOLUME TREND
Italy and Spain, with the lowest price increases are showing growth
With prices up more in Germany and UK, volume is declining.
UNITS trend
for Greece
FMCG Consumer Reaction to Economic Uncertainty
Food prices have increased in all countries and it is impacting more heavily volume
sales where there is a significant price growth. Rising prices have predominantly
resulted in increased value sales.
Non-food products sales have fluctuated during the year and sales levels vary from
country to country. Volume sales are stable or decreasing except in Spain. Shoppers
make them lasting longer and get more cautious when purchasing.
In Spain consumption has increased as the Spanish are tired of tightening their
belt.
In Spain and Greece, shoppers are transferring more of their spend to larger
supermarkets rather small grocery shops with a larger Own Label range and
promotions choice.
Shoppers are cautious about the cost of their shopping basket and are willing to
buy value for money, this can be the Own Label offering against which national
brands respond with strong trade promotion activity. Own Label sales have increased
in all countries except France, and after a pause promotion is on the rise again end of
2011 higher than same period in 2011 in most countries.
Consumer Recession: return to a few basic principles that have been forgotten
during a time of rapid expansion and waste: people are buying what they need when
they need it, buying less each time they shop and buying more often: not wasting so
much. Turning down the heating and turning off more lights. Eating out and having
their hair done a bit less, baking at home and preparing more meals from scratch.
2011
2.0
3.0
2.3
3.9
2.1
2.0
2.6
2.9
4.5
4.4 4.4
2.2
3.4
2.8
3.9
1.8
2.0
2.6
1.2 0.8 0.0
0.4
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
VALUE VOLUME PRICE
In France, Food volume sales have stopped growing, with prices well up.
Non-Food volume is almost flat for H2 after growth in Q4.
Trend of Food Sales in France
(Packaged Food, Confectionery, Drinks, exc. Alcohol)
0.4
3.2
2.9
3.2
1.7
0.6
0.9
1.6
2.1
4.6
3.4
-1.0
1.4 1.5 1.4
0.9 0.2
-0.6
0.0
-0.3
-0.7
0.3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Trend of Non-Food Sales in France
(Pet Food, Health, Toiletry, Household)
SOURCE: SymphonyIRI, Hypermarkets & Supermarkets
YoY Value & Volume price change
Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 H1 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 H2 2011
VALUE
GROWTH
FROM
INFLATION
Overview - France
As feared, 2011 finished worse than it began with declining growth rates.
Nevertheless, food volume grew by 0.9% and non food volume by
+0.3%.
This can be considered quite a good performance and a consolidation
after the excellent growth in 2010.
Unlike many other European countries, Own Labels and Hard
Discounters decreased in France.
For many the current situation is considered more negative because of
the social, economic and political climate.
Given the most recent trends not very surprising that the volume sales
decreased in January 2012 (-1.9%).
Concerning food products, the situation is improved for home made
products and essential categories (compared with ready to eat or
pleasure products).
VAT on Food 5.5% & 19.6%
5.1
2.9
1.4
3.6
-3.0
0.9
2.3
4.1
4.5
3.6
4.1
6.5
4.3
2.6
6.4
-3.5
2.4
2.0
1.1
0.2 2.0
0.8
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
VALUE VOLUME PRICE
In Italy, Q4 2011 Food growth is minimal in volume with prices rising. The
decline in Non-Food volume has worsened although prices are up less.
Trend of Food Sales in Italy
(Packaged Food, Confectionery, Drinks, inc.. Alcohol)
3.3
4.5
1.8
1.1
-2.0
-3.3
-2.7
-0.8
0.6
0.0
0.3
1.3
3.8
1.4
-1.9
-3.0
-2.4
-1.1
-0.8
-0.5
-0.9
0.8
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Trend of Non-Food Sales in Italy
SOURCE: SymphonyIRI, All Outlets
Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 H1 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 H2 2011
VALUE
GROWTH
FROM
INFLATION
Inflation rate in FMCG Italy: In Sept the inflation rate of FMCG is almost
equal to the general inflation rate in the country. Consumers in this sector will be
impacted.
% Price changes - FMCG
Tot. Italia Ipermercati + Supermercati + Superette
5,0
Difference (Mix effect) basket Inflation FMCG Inflation
-3,0
-2,0
-1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
a
p
r
-
0
9
g
i
u
-
0
9
a
g
o
-
0
9
o
t
t
-
0
9
d
i
c
-
0
9
f
e
b
-
1
0
a
p
r
-
1
0
g
i
u
-
1
0
a
g
o
-
1
0
o
t
t
-
1
0
d
i
c
-
1
0
f
e
b
-
1
1
a
p
r
-
1
1
g
i
u
-
1
1
a
g
o
-
1
1
o
t
t
-
1
1
d
i
c
-
1
1
Overview - Italy
The macro economic scenario in Italy shows a difficult situation for both consumption
and GDP trend. During the third quarter the Italian GDP decreased by -0.2% vs. the
previous quarter (Source: Istat). Moreover prices increased by +2.8% (annual average
rate - Source Istat). All gasoline prices registered an increase.
Unemployment is up to 8,9% in December 2011. This is the highest rate registered since
2004.
The purchasing power of households is under pressure. In the third quarter of 2011 it
decreased by -0.3% vs. the previous quarter. (Source Istat).
2011 Q4 volumes registered a negative trend in all categories apart from fresh food and
fruit & vegetables which were stable year-on-year.
For the last 8 months trading down has been seen in the FMCG shopping basket. This
has been caused by increased prices and the need to save money.
FMCG inflation is close to 3%. It reached the general inflation rate registered from
ISTAT. From November the inflation rate has stopped growing.
There has been a large increase in the number of Own Labels, resulting in share
improvement, particularly in the premium price sector. Branded products suffered worse
than Own Labels in the difficult economic climate.
Trade promoted volume is relatively high at around 25%. The promotion pressure was
especially high during the second half of the year.
VAT on Food 4% & 10%
-0.5
0.0
-0.9
0.3
-0.6
-0.5
0.0
2.3
2.0
6.0
5.0
3.1
4.8
3.2 3.2
1.7 1.9
2.6
5.2
3.9
2.4 1.8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
VALUE VOLUME PRICE
In Spain, food prices are barely changing and volume remains buoyant.
Non-Food price rises have reduced after going up in Q3.
Trend Spain Food Sales in Spain
-1.0
-0.1
0.4
1.4
0.6
2.0
0.8
2.2
4.0
3.9
3.4
3.8
4.4
5.2 5.2
2.6
3.9
2.8
3.2
2.5
4.3
3.8
-6
-3
0
3
6
Trend of Non-Food Sales in Spain
Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 H1 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 H2 2011
Sales Evolution FMCG Market vs. previous year: demand and price evolution
Spain - Prices stopped decreasing in March
3.8
1.2
3.2
1.9
2.7
5.2
1.7 1.5
2.2
3.3
4.7
4.3
3.9 3.9
3.3 3.3
2.1
2.4
1.5
1.8
0.7
3.6
1.5 1.4
0.2
2.1
1.2
1.4
4.6
-1.8
1.3
0.4
2.2
3.1
2.4
2.2
4.5
-3.6
-1.9
-0.6
-3.5 -3.6
-4.5 -4.6
-4.1 -4.1
-4.4 -4.3 -4.5
-4.0
-3.2
-2.6
-2.2 -2.3 -2.1 -2.0 -2.1 -2.3
-2.1
-1.8
-1.3
-0.7 -0.7
0.0
0.2
1.0
1.3
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.2
0.8
0.7
0,1
5.8
3.0
1.4
1.0
4.4
-2.5
0.8
0.7
A
o

2
0
0
7
A
o

2
0
0
8
A
o

2
0
0
9
A
o

2
0
1
0
A
o

2
0
1
1
P
0
1
-
0
9
P
0
2
-
0
9
P
0
3
-
0
9
P
0
4
-
0
9
P
0
5
-
0
9
P
0
6
-
0
9
P
0
7
-
0
9
P
0
8
-
0
9
P
0
9
-
0
9
P
1
0
-
0
9
P
1
1
-
0
9
P
1
2
-
0
9
P
0
1
-
1
0
P
0
2
-
1
0
P
0
3
-
1
0
P
0
4
-
1
0
P
0
5
-
1
0
P
0
6
-
1
0
P
0
7
-
1
0
P
0
8
-
1
0
P
0
9
-
1
0
P
1
0
-
1
0
P
1
1
-
1
0
P
1
2
-
1
0
P
0
1
-
1
1
P
0
2
-
1
1
P
0
3
-
1
1
P
0
4
-
1
1
P
0
5
-
1
1
P
0
6
-
1
1
P
0
7
-
1
1
P
0
8
-
1
1
P
0
9
-
1
1
P
1
0
-
1
1
P
1
1
-
1
1
P
1
2
-
1
1
Precio
Demanda
Overview - Spain
Unemployment continued to increase, rising to 22.9% in Q4.
Annual inflation (CPI) for total 2011 was +3.2%. In January it was a +2%.
GDP has increased +0.3% in Q4, and for total 2011 is 0.7%
Sales in Q3 has increased +3.5%. This is due to the increase of
consumption, +2.7%, and also prices, +0.7%.
Although Spain is still in recession, shoppers have learnt to buy, and they
have internalized their shopping strategies, so they spent less time in front of
the shelf to choose their shopping basket. Shoppers also seem to be tired of
tightening their belts, and consumption has been positively affected.
Although shoppers are sensitive to prices, store and shelves are key drivers
to leverage sales.
Trade promotion levels are decreasing, are 18.3% in volume.
Own Label for Q4 is 40.3%, and closed 2011 with 40.7%, a +6.3% more than
2010. Manufacturers Brands are also increasing their Sales in , +1.6% in
2011 vs. 2010.
VAT on Food 8% and 18%
2.2
3.6
1.7
0.1
-5.0
3.4
1.3
-0.5
1.8
2.4
2.1
2.8 2.2
-2.3
5.5
2.4 2.0 0.2
-0.5
1.0
0.4
1.5
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
VALUE UNITS PRICE
In Greece, after a period of continuous price reduction, Food units
growth has turned to decline in Q4 2011.
Trend of Food Sales in Greece
-1.6
-1.9
2.6
-1.7
-9.4
0.7
-2.5
-1.7
-1.3
-7.2
-4.2
2.2
-8.5
-2.4
-4.8
-2.7
-1.5
0.3
-0.6
-0.3
0.2 0.0
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6 Trend of Non-Food sales in Greece
YoY Value change
Price per unit
Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 H1 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 H2 2011
Overview - Greece
Inflation in Greece was +3.0% for 2011.
Unemployment rates during 2011 reached 16.6%.
GDP for 2011 was -5.5%.
Promotion intensity has declined, since companies are trying to meet
their profit margins. Within promotion activities, those with price off are
gaining share.
Retailers are promoting Own Label products more and more.
Food category sales seem to suffer less, due to consumption a
transfer from other small stores (e.g. kiosks, haberdasheries,
convenience) to supermarket/hypermarket stores.
The top 7 retailer groups are gaining market share at the expense of
smaller chains (due to both organic growth and stores network
expansion). Especially for Lidl where there was an increase of sales in
2011.
VAT on Food 23%
1.6
0.7
0.2
1.4
0.0
1.1
2.4
2.7
4.7
4.4
4.6
1.9 1.9
3.1
1.4
3.3
-1.0
-0.5
0.1
0.7
1.5
-0.2
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
VALUE VOLUME PRICE
In the Netherlands, the Food volume sales have started to decline as
prices increase. Non-Food volume has fallen in 2011.
Trend of Food Sales in the Netherlands
-2.1
2.2
0.9
-2.1
0.5
-1.8
-1.3
0.2
-0.6
1.2
0.3
-5.2
4.1
-1.6 -1.1
-0.6
-1.0
0.9
-1.6
-1.9
0.1 1.5
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
Trend of Non-Food Sales in the Netherlands
SOURCE: SymphonyIRI, All Outlets
Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 H1 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 H2 2011
VALUE
GROWTH
FROM
INFLATION
Overview The Netherlands
Economic growth for 2011 was 1,2%. But the last 2 quarters there was
a decline. This means that The Netherlands are officially in recession
again.
Unemployment went up to 6% in January 2012.
The mood among consumers has not changed and is still pessimistic.
Consumers were less pessimistic about their own financial situation.
The confidence in the economic climate showed a slight decline.
Total Supermarket growth was 2,7%. Price increase is the main driver,
while volume sales is declining. Especially in food, prices are higher
than in 2010. Keep in mind that prices in Dutch supermarkets are still
behind on the price level in 2003!
Trade promoted volume is slightly declining for the whole year. But
keeping in mind that EDLP fascias are gaining market share,
promoted volume in hi-lo supermarkets is going up!
VAT on Food : 6%
-0.8
-2.0
-0.7
1.8
-1.2
2.4
2.3
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.8
-1.2
1.1
-1.1
-2.4
-3.7
-2.9
-0.3
0.2
0.5
0.2
2.2
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
VALUE VOLUME PRICE
In Germany, the effect of Food prices rising quickly has hit volumes
again in Q 2011 with Non-Food flat in volume as prices stabilise.
Trend of Food Sales in Germany
0.9
2.3
1.7
2.5
0.8
0.4
-0.9
-0.7
1.0
0.7
-0.2
0.4 0.3
0.1
0.7
0.3 0.5
0.6
0.2 0.9
1.8
1.4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Trend of Non-Food Sales in Germany
SOURCE: SymphonyIRI, All Outlets inc. Aldi
Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 H1 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 H2 2011
VALUE
GROWTH
FROM
INFLATION
Even though the evolving crisis in Europe is causing consumers to think
twice about every additional spending, experts do not see dramatic
developments for the German market and assume that a recession can be
avoided.
The economic situation in Germany is based on the domestic demand
which is very robust the high employment rate and positive income
situation are strong influences keeping economy on a stable high level.
The unemployment rate in 2011 has gone down to 7.1% - a strong
decrease compared to 2010 (7.7%) and 2009 (8.1%).
The total FMCG sales have increased by 2.2% to 121.7 Billion .
Strongest value sales in single categories are dairy products (+5.1%) and
beverages (+3.9%).
We can clearly measure increasing overall price for total FMCG by 3.3%
as value sales increase, volume sales however decrease by 1.0%
compared to the prior year.
Own Label sales in Germany remain constantly high showing extremely
large increases in categories like pet food, dairy products and frozen food.
Overview - Germany
5.1
3.3
2.5
1.8
1.5
1.9
4.0
2.0
4.7
4.6 4.6
1.0 1.1
1.7
0.3 0.0
-0.8
0.5
0.1
0.7
0.0 1.0
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
VALUE VOLUME PRICE
In the UK, price rises are causing volume decline again in Q4 2011 for
Non-Food and flat on Food with value pushed up by inflation.
SOURCE: SymphonyIRI, All Outlets, YoY Value & Volume price change
Excludes Northern Ireland
Trend of Food Sales in the UK
2.4
2.1
1.0
1.5
-0.1
1.0
3.5
1.5
2.1
1.9
2.0
1.1
1.6
0.9
-1.2
1.3
-1.3
-1.7
-1.4
-1.6
-0.8
0.3
-3
-2
-1
1
2
3
4
5
6
Trend of Non-Food Sales in the UK
Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 H1 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 H2 2011
VALUE
GROWTH
FROM
INFLATION
2.6
2.9
2.8
3.1
3.8
4.1
4.3
5.1
4.8
9,000
9,300
9,600
9,900
10,200
10,500
May,
10
Jun,
10
Jul, 10 Aug,
10
Sep,
10
Oct,
10
Oct,
10
Nov,
10
Dec,
10
Jan,
11
Feb,
11
Mar,
11
Apr,
11
May,
11
Jun,
11
Jul, 11 Aug,
11
Sep,
11
Oct,
11
Oct,
11
Nov,
11
Dec,
11
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
TOTAL PRICE
Price increases continued with +4.8% in December. The increase shown by
Food items was higher at +5.3%.
FMCG Shopping Basket UK All items
% CHANGE vs. LAST YEAR
* 4w/e 24th December
Overview United Kingdom
Inflation is still well above the Governments target but has started to fall since October 2011.
Unemployment was 8.4% in October and rising. Temporary employment has increased within
this total. This level is expected to increase further.
GDP fell in the 4th quarter of 2011 by -0.2% vs. Q3 2011. This is below the Govt forecast.
The forecasts for 2012 and beyond were reviewed downwards during 2011.
VAT was reduced in Dec 2008, returned in Jan 2010 and went up again in Jan 2011. This
affected prices through 2011, the anniversary in Jan 2012 shows a corresponding slight
reduction in the level of inflation.
Credit has started to reduce but the savings ratio has continued to fall.
Own Label (OL) value share is currently increasing very slightly in Food & Drink, unit share is
up a little more but so far the anticipated rise of OL hasnt really happened since brands are
promoting strongly.
Food prices started to rise before VAT went up in Jan 2011 have continued to go up
throughout the year. The current rate of increase is over 5%.
FMCG sales started to falter and volumes are down in 2011. Non-Food volumes have been
hit harder than Food volumes but Food is still down for the year by -0.3%.
A spell of good weather, a different timing for Easter and the Royal Wedding all contributed to
growth at some stage but the underlying volume trend is still down. Summer seasonal
products have performed badly due to poor weather from May to July but improved
dramatically for 2 weeks at the end of September when there was a short heatwave.
24 CopyrlghL Symphonyl8l Croup, 2012. ConfldenLlal and roprleLary.
Tim Eales
Director of Strategic Insight
Topline Report Half Year (H2 2011)
Topline Trade Promotion Trends
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011
Deal levels vary enormously across Europe - Food
GERMANY
NETHERLANDS
UK
ITALY
SPAIN
FRANCE
% SALES WITH TRADE PROMOTION (Volume SP, NL, UK Value IT, GE, FR)
Trade Promotion level is still very high and rising in the UK.
Increasing in all countries in Q4.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011
Deal levels vary enormously across Europe Non-Food
GERMANY
NETHERLANDS
UK
ITALY
SPAIN
FRANCE
Trade Promotion levels have remained high in the UK and not increasing as
quickly as for Food in most countries except in France.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011
Deal levels vary enormously across Europe All Products
GERMANY
NETHERLANDS
UK
ITALY
SPAIN
FRANCE
The increased levels of Trade Promotion on Food have pushed up the
consolidated levels in all countries.
Looking Forward
Recommendations
Build strong brand loyalty with a direct access to your
consumers. Retailers will see it as an opportunity for
them as well.
Be very straightforward on the promotion strategy goals
and get appropriate analytics solutions enabling you to
simulate price and promotion impact on your margins,
on your revenue, on the category and on your
competition to achieve your performance target.
Get a clear view of trip missions decision and
impacting factors for each shopper segment to gain
market share and avoid cannibalisation.
Innovate to stimulate interest and curiosity in the
category.
Stimulate need through media activity.
Understand the Own Label and brand portfolio in each
category and what erodes key brand positions. Review
shopper needs, retailer strategies, market mix and
develop mitigation strategies in priority categories.
Insights
Shoppers have access to multiple source of information and
influence via internet, on real time.
Although promotion activity is high, it will be difficult to reverse
the trend. Its correlated to price increase which could continue
at its present rate for some time to come.
Multi channel shoppers.
Categories beginning to lose sales as shoppers carefully
manage their budgets.
Shoppers buying more based on need than want.
Own Label will continue to gain share offering quality for value.
Final Notes
Source: SymphonyIRI Group InfoScan, syndicated retail tracking service
Methodology: Seven quarters of review, YoY data for FMCG
Country coverage: France, Germany Greece, Italy, the Netherlands,
Spain, United Kingdom
To gain deeper insights, predictive analysis and
recommendations on specific products, categories,
segments, channels or retailers
contact your SymphonyIRI Consultant
or email to: eu.marketing@symphonyiri.com
Contact: SymphonyIRI Group, eu.marketing@SymphonyIRI.com, Tel: +33 1 30 06 23 62

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