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October 18, 2011

Indian market Sensex Nifty BSE 100 BSE 200 CNX Midcap BSE Smallcap Developed market Dow Jones Nasdaq S&P 500 FTSE CAC DAX Hang Seng* Nikkei* S&P/ASX200*
* Markets are open

Last close 17,025 5,118 2,084 6,553 7,140 6,923 Last close 11,397 2,615 1,201 5,437 3,166 5,859 18,218 8,743 4,193

1 day (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (0.2) 0.1 0.2 1 day (2.1) (2.0) (1.9) (0.5) (1.6) (1.8) (3.5) (1.5) (1.9)

% change 3 mth (8.0) (8.1) (9.6) (9.7) (12.9) (17.5) % change 3 mth (8.0) (5.4) (8.0) (5.5) (13.3) (17.6) (16.4) (12.4) (6.2) % change 3 mth (14.6) (8.4) (4.6) (13.8) (16.9) (14.0) (11.5)

Times are changingeveryday!


YTD (17.0) (16.6) (17.7) (17.7) (19.4) (28.4) YTD (1.6) (1.4) (4.5) (7.9) (16.8) (15.3) (20.9) (14.5) (11.6)

Time is a dressmaker specializing in alterations. ~Faith Baldwin Good bye high hopes. It has taken just one day for enthusiasm over the Oct. 23 eurozone summit to wane. A statement from a German official was enough to cast doubts over the ability of European leaders to set aside differences and thrash out a lasting solution to the credit crisis. Tempering expectations from a big event (summit in Brussels) could be the right way for now to approach markets. The start is set to be lower. Most world markets have surrendered the G20-inspired gains amid skepticism over Europes much-hyped plan to quell the debt contagion. US indices were down ~2% each. European markets finished in the red as well. Most Asian benchmarks are down. Chinese shares are down after its Q3 GDP slowed from the previous quarter. However, retail sales and industrial output have expanded smartly. TCS will be in focus after its Q2 earnings. Hero MotoCorp, HCL Tech, Jindal Steel, Patni and Petronet LNG will also be in the spotlight ahead of their results. The Nifty has been facing resistance between 5170-5180 levels. All indicators suggest caution is good for your financial health and otherwise. Sensex intra-day
17,250 17,150

Emerging market Shanghai Comp Brazil Bovespa Mexico Bolsa Kospi* Micex Taiwan* Straits*
* Markets are open

Last close 2,404 53,911 34,126 1,837 1,403 7,342 2,724

1 day (1.5) (2.0) (2.1) (1.5) (2.0) (1.6) (2.0)

YTD (14.4) (22.2) (11.5) (10.4) (16.9) (18.2) (14.6)

Institutional activity (Rs cr) FIIs MFs FIIs Prov. MFs Prov. Commodities Crude (US$/bbl) Gold (US$/oz) Copper (US$/mt) Aluminium (US$/mt) Zinc (US$/mt) Advance/Decline stocks (Nos) Adv Dec Unch A/D ratio (x)*
*A/D excluding Unch

Cash (83) (82) 379 (321) Last close 86.0 1,672 7,481 2,192 1,885 A 88 109 6 0.8

F&O (306) -

MTD (531) 595

YTD (2,059) 6,193

1 day (0.4) 0.1 (0.7) (0.3) (1.4) B 1,018 1,094 93 0.9

% change 3 mth (10.3) 4.2 (22.5) (11.0) (19.8) S 211 228 27 0.9

YTD (5.8) 17.7 (22.5) (10.9) (22.9) Total 1,320 1,432 126 0.9

17,050 16,950 16,850

Trade value (Rs cr) Cash NSE Cash BSE Total Cash Delivery (%) Derivatives Currency Rs/US$ Rs/EUR US$/GBP US$/EUR Yen/US$ Bond market 10yr Gsec Call rate Last close 48.95 67.48 1.58 1.38 76.81

9,143 2,412 11,555 43.5 107,916 1 day (0.2) (0.2) 0.3 0.2 (0.0) % change 3 mth (8.9) (7.3) (1.7) (2.5) 2.9

% chg (7.9) 10.8 (4.6) (4.0) YTD (8.7) (11.4) 1.1 2.8 5.6 Bps chg (0.00) 0.02

16,750 9:00 10:05 11:10 12:15 13:20 14:25 15:30

ADR/GDR Dr. Reddys HDFC Bk ICICI Bk ITC Infosys Ranbaxy Reliance Wipro SBI Tata Motors Sterlite L&T Latest (US$) 30.5 31.2 36.3 4.2 55.1 10.3 34.1 9.8 81.5 18.4 9.8 28.1 Price % chg (1.7) 0.2 (1.3) 0.2 (3.4) 0.4 (3.2) (1.3) (0.2) (0.9) (2.3) (2.7) % Prem/Disc (1.2) 6.6 (1.3) (0.3) (1.9) 1.4 0.1 33.8 5.4 (4.1) (1.2) (0.3)

Last Close (%) 8.80 8.30

News
Corporate snippets JSW Energy said it has begun commercial operations of the 4th unit of 300 MW at its 1,200-MW thermal power plant in Ratnagiri, Maharashtra. (BL) Reliance Power said it has repaid 4.928% FCCBs amounting to USD$299.9 million that were due for redemption on October 17. (BL) The agitation at Maruti Suzuki India's Manesar plant entered its 11th day on Monday with workers protesting outside the factory premises. The company said it had resumed partial production. (BL) Moser Baer said that about 150 workers at its optical disc plant at Greater Noida were protesting outside the plant premises. (BL) Union Bank of India has carved out a midcorporate banking vertical from the MSME banking vertical to give focussed attention to the credit requirements of companies with a turnover of Rs1-5bn. (BL) Allahabad Bank has tied up with Aditya Birla Money to provide its customers the convenience of investing in financial products online. (BL) Jet Airways and the Sahara group will take their battle to the Supreme Court after the Bombay High Court refused to intervene in the two-year-old dispute triggered by Jet's purchase of the Sahara group's airline business. (ET) Brazil expressed interest in taking the world's cheapest car - Tata Nano - to the South American nation. (ET) Reliance Industries is to suspend drilling for future oil and gas exploration pending a reassessment with its new venture partner BP, a company source said. (ET) Oberoi Hotels, the promoters of East India Hotels, has been slowly hiking stake in their company for the past six months, BSE data shows. (ET) Future Group announced its foray into rural wholesale business with opening its first Aadhaar Wholesale store in the state. (BS) Coal India Ltd relented on its earlier stand to limit bonus payment to Rs0.017mn of its 3,66,000 workers on its payroll. (BS) REC plans to raise Rs10bn by issuing taxsaving infrastructure bonds in the current financial year. The first tranche of the bond issuance is expected in the last week of November. (BS)
Market Mantra

Economy snippets The cap on FII in Government Securities could soon be raised. The current limit of US$10bn for the entire financial year has been almost exhausted. (BL) The industry ministry has asked its finance counterpart to restrain RBI from notifying certain clauses of the FDI policy related to financial instruments. (FE) SEBI has approved share sale guidelines for insurance firms. (ET) Union Minister of Labour and Employment Mallikarjun Kharge called for a national labour code as a basic labour law that would lay down a floor of substantive labour rights or standards such as minimum wages, maximum hours of work, minimum standards of safety and health at workplace. (BS) ADB has approved a three-year India operations business plan that will provide the country with a lending assistance totalling US$6.25bn to support its inclusive and sustainable growth. (BS) Fresh and incremental funding dipped 8 per cent to Rs4220bn in the April-September quarter this year. Funding was Rs4610bn in the same period last year, according to rating agency CARE. (BS) Results table
Rs m HDFC Mindtree Mahindra Life Motilal Oswal Peninsula Land TCS Zee Entertainment Revenues 41,639 4,567 938 1,120 496 93,292 5,211 % yoy 40.4 18.8 5.4 (27.5) (59.6) 28.4 4.0 PAT 9,707 543 314 350 137 31,871 1,186 % yoy 20.2 132.1 27.5 1.9 (78.6) 75.8 (24.7)

Technicals
Nifty price/volume
NSE Nifty [N59901] 5156.20, 5160.20, 5084.50, 5118.25, 480651296 -0.27% Price Avg3(S,100,S,200,S,50) Log IRIS 6000 5800 5600 5400 5200 27 5000 Source : www.SpiderSoftwareIndia.Com Vol Cr 4800 100

50.00

Colgate Palmolive (BUY, between Rs995-996, Target Rs1,028): Colgate Palmolive has given breakout from rounding bottom pattern above Rs996 along with volume expansion. Such a breakout has happened after long consolidation for almost a month and with positive crossover in RSI. A fresh buy signal has also been generated above the MACD reference line which supports buying argument in the counter. The immediate projection of breakout is placed at Rs1040. We recommend buying Colgate Palmolive in the range of Rs995-996 with stop loss of Rs980 for Target of Rs1028. (Duration 7 days)
Dly

11:M

The trading action on Monday turned out lack luster as Nifty remained stuck in tight range of 5,095-5,150 but ended in negative in later part of the day. Nifty has been facing multiple resistance between 5,170-5,180 levels and hence caution is advised in coming days. Support/Resistance levels
Nifty Sensex Close 5,118 17,025 Support 5,060 16,830 Resistance 5,170 17,290

Reliance Infra (SELL, below Rs415, Target Rs402): On the daily charts, the stock has given a downside breakdown after giving a close below the support of ascending trendline. A breakdown in rising trendline implies that downtrend in the counter is likely to prevail in the coming days. Moreover, appearance of falling tops signifies the bulls inability to form higher highs. Based on above mentioned technical evidences, we recommend traders to short Reliance Infra October Futures below Rs415 with stop loss of Rs421 for target of Rs402.

Abnormal change in delivery


Stock Bel Geship Max Jswsteel Apil NSEDely (%) 94.2 94.9 87.2 17.7 48.2 Prev NSEDely (%) 30.8 33.4 31.9 7.2 20.2 Price % chg (0.6) (2.1) 1.7 (3.6) (1.1)

Positive breakout
Company name Punjab Natl Bank Hindustan Oil Ex Bgr Energy Sys Bharti Airtel Thermax Ltd Cesc Ltd Adani Power Ltd Rolta India Ltd Havells India Unichem Labs Ltd CMP 971.1 109.5 330.3 379.1 430.1 273.4 82.4 75.9 352.0 137.6 10 Days MVG avg 950.3 107.2 323.6 371.7 422.1 268.4 80.9 74.6 346.4 135.4 Price % chg 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 20 Days MVG avg 963.2 112.0 331.8 376.8 454.2 274.3 83.4 83.6 354.6 138.4

Negative breakout
Company name Maharashtra Seam Ruchi Soya Indus Jain Irrigation Hindustan Const Godrej Consumer Gujarat State F Jagran Prakashan Indian Hotels Co Siemens Ltd Great Offshore L CMP 331.8 108.6 136.1 27.4 390.9 437.4 103.0 68.5 825.4 116.3 10 Days MVG avg 339.0 110.8 138.5 27.9 397.1 443.2 104.2 69.2 834.0 117.4 Price % chg (2.1) (2.0) (1.8) (1.6) (1.6) (1.3) (1.1) (1.1) (1.0) (0.9) 20 Days MVG avg 350.7 113.2 147.9 28.6 404.2 442.3 105.3 70.1 845.6 124.6

Market Mantra

Technicals
Pivot table
Company Pivot Res 1 Res 2 ABB 680 694 708 ACC 1,111 1,121 1,131 Ambuja Cem 151 155 159 BHEL 329 334 338 BPCL 640 650 661 Bharti 381 386 390 Cairn 296 303 310 Cipla 288 292 297 DLF 235 239 243 Gail 412 416 420 Grasim 2,352 2,373 2,395 HCL Tech 439 446 453 HDFC Bank 477 482 486 Hero Honda 1,999 2,022 2,045 Hindalco 130 132 133 HUL 333 336 339 HDFC 672 679 687 ICICI Bank 896 906 915 Idea 96 99 101 Infosys 2,744 2,768 2,791 ITC 205 207 208 L&T 1,391 1,408 1,424 M&M 813 819 824 Maruti 1,043 1,075 1,108 Nalco 62 63 64 NTPC 170 172 174 ONGC 269 272 274 Powergrid 98 99 100 PNB 973 981 988 Ranbaxy 498 504 509 Rcom 77 78 80 Reliance 845 858 872 Reliance Infra 420 425 430 Reiance Power 87 85 84 87 88 90 Satyam 73 72 70 74 75 77 Siemens 825 817 802 832 841 849 SBI 1,892 1,872 1,842 1,903 1,922 1,942 SAIL 106 104 102 106 108 110 Sterlite 121 119 118 121 122 124 Sunpharma 472 465 457 473 480 487 Suzlon 38 37 37 38 38 39 Tata Com. 191 187 183 191 195 199 TCS 1,120 1,103 1,078 1,129 1,146 1,163 Tata Motors 188 184 180 187 192 196 Tata Power 100 99 98 100 101 102 Tata Steel 440 435 430 439 445 450 Unitech 27 27 27 27 28 28 Wipro 357 352 345 359 364 368 Zee 113 112 110 114 115 117 A pivot is a level at which the market direction changes for the day. These points can be critical support and resistance levels for that day. Pivot levels are only broad indicators and not necessarily our view on the stock or index. CMP (Rs) 678 1,112 153 326 632 380 299 290 236 410 2,336 440 478 1,993 130 334 673 899 97 2,747 206 1,380 813 1,052 62 168 269 98 970 497 77 834 418 Supp 1 664 1,102 149 321 622 376 292 286 232 406 2,314 433 473 1,969 129 331 666 890 95 2,723 204 1,364 807 1,019 62 166 267 97 962 492 75 820 413 Supp 2 649 1,092 147 313 604 370 288 283 229 400 2,277 427 470 1,940 127 329 660 883 93 2,702 203 1,337 802 996 61 162 265 96 951 486 74 796 406

Top gainers
Company Niit Ltd Kpit Cummins Inf Bl Kashyap&Sons Niit Tech Ltd Jb Chems & Pharm Price (Rs) 49.8 170.0 12.5 234.3 80.2 Price % chg 13.8 12.1 13.2 10.8 9.8 % YTD chg (8.8) 17.2 (59.3) 18.3 (20.7)

Top losers
Company Wire And Wireles Welspun Corp Ltd Indian Oil Corp Asahi India Glas Anant Raj Indus Price (Rs) 8.9 111.1 292.9 63.0 49.9 Price % chg (5.8) (5.7) (4.0) (4.0) (3.9) % YTD chg (27.0) (34.5) (14.5) (34.1) (53.5)

Volume Toppers
Company Niit Ltd Info Edge Great Eastern Sh Kpit Cummins Inf Golden Tobacco Price (Rs) 49.8 686.4 241.6 170.0 56.7 Price % chg 13.8 1.1 (2.1) 12.1 (2.7) Vol % chg 7,003.4 2,079.5 1,898.1 1,325.7 1,197.6

Sector watch
BSE Indices BSE Bankex BSE Realty BSE HC BSE Metals BSE Oil & Gas BSE Auto BSE IT BSE Power BSE FMCG BSE PSU BSE Cap Goods BSE CD BSE 200 BSE 500 BSE Mid Cap BSE Small Cap CNX 500 Last close 11,131 1,836 5,893 11,314 8,657 8,989 5,670 2,143 3,999 7,409 10,891 6,805 2,084 6,553 6,189 6,923 4,084 1 day 0.6 0.5 (0.1) (0.1) (2.3) 1.6 (0.5) (1.2) 0.2 (0.7) (1.4) 1.5 (0.3) (0.2) (0.0) 0.2 (0.2) Price % chg 1 week 0.0 1.9 (1.6) (7.6) (1.0) 1.8 11.1 (3.3) 1.7 (4.6) (9.6) 2.9 (0.5) (0.7) (3.1) (4.0) (0.5) 1 mth (13.3) (16.8) (8.9) (22.9) (4.8) 1.0 (2.4) (17.8) (1.2) (13.5) (20.5) (1.9) (9.6) (9.7) (11.9) (17.5) (9.4) 50 DMA 11,764 1,939 6,160 13,316 8,832 8,659 5,550 2,380 3,939 8,074 12,541 6,576 2,172 6,837 6,585 7,710 4,252

Note: Ideas given under the Technicals section are for intraday purpose or up to a period of three trading sessions. Stocks recommended under this heading are not necessarily part of our fundamental buy or sell list.

Market Mantra

Deals
Bulk deals
Date 17/10/2011 17/10/2011 Scrip name Indiabulls Wholesale Ser SPECTACLE Client name Emerging Markets Value Fund Ifci Financial Services Ltd B/S S S Qty ('000) 435 300 Avg price (Rs) 4 15 Deal size (Rs m) 1.7 4.5

Insider trades
Company name
Liberty Phosphate Ltd Liberty Phosphate Ltd Liberty Phosphate Ltd Thinksoft Global Services Ltd Thinksoft Global Services Ltd Thinksoft Global Services Ltd Thinksoft Global Services Ltd Thinksoft Global Services Ltd Thinksoft Global Services Ltd Thinksoft Global Services Ltd Thinksoft Global Services Ltd Thinksoft Global Services Ltd Thinksoft Global Services Ltd Thinksoft Global Services Ltd Thinksoft Global Services Ltd

Acquirer
Raoof Razak Dhanani Raoof Razak Dhanani Raoof Razak Dhanani Vanaja Arvind Vanaja Arvind Vanaja Arvind Vanaja Arvind Vanaja Arvind Vanaja Arvind Vanaja Arvind Vanaja Arvind Vanaja Arvind Vanaja Arvind Vanaja Arvind Vanaja Arvind

Transaction date
3/10/2011 4/10/2011 5/10/2011 10/8/2011 10/8/2011 11/10/2011 11/10/2011 16/08/2011 16/08/2011 18/08/2011 18/08/2011 19/08/2011 19/08/2011 22/08/2011 22/08/2011

B/S
B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B

Qty ('000)
4.4 17.9 11.2 1.0 1.0 10.0 10.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 5.0 5.0

Shares transactions (%)


0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Holding after transaction (%)


2.4 2.5 2.6 10.5 10.5 10.7 10.7 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.6

FIIs trades
Scrip name Bank of Baroda PNB Volume ('000) 18.9 0.6 Price (Rs) 763.7 993.0 Prem/Disc (%) 0.6 2.3

Market Mantra

Derivatives
Nifty volatility Index declined to 25.43 from 25.98, decreased by 2.12%. Total Nifty futures added 0.69mn shares in open interest. Call open interest for October series added 1.78mn shares in Open Interest. Put open interest for October series shed 0.79mn shares in Open Interest. Nifty put call ratio of open interest now stands at 1.48 vs 1.56. Nifty put call ratio of volume now stands at 1.12 vs 1.17. Maximum open interest in calls for October series is at 5,200 strike prices. Maximum open interest in Puts for October series is at 4,800 strike prices. Nifty October 5,100 Call added 1.09mn shares in open interest. Nifty October 4,900 Put shed 0.12mn shares in open interest. Strategies Long IRB Infra Oct Future between Rs169 170 for the Target price of Rs175 with a Stop loss placed at Rs166. Lot size: 2000 Remarks: Net maximum profit of Rs12,000 and net maximum loss of Rs6,000. Short IDFC Oct Future between Rs121122 for the Target price of Rs116 with a Stop loss placed at Rs125. Lot size: 2000 Remarks: Net maximum profit of Rs12,000 and net maximum loss of Rs6,000.
Nifty snapshot
Near month price Near month Pre/Disc Mid month price Mid month Pre/Disc OI* (000) Volume (000) PCR (OI) PCR (Vol) Roll-over (%) Current 5,116 (2.4) 5,132 14.2 24,430 17,769 1.5 1.1 13.4 % Chg (0.5) (121.7) (0.5) (49.8) 2.9 (15.2) (4.6) (4.2) 4.7

FII derivative data


(Rs cr) Index Futures Index Option Stock Futures Stock Options Buy 1,833 8,973 2,330 418 Sell 1,692 9,132 2,635 400 Net 141 (159) (306) 18 Contracts 22,547 12,404 15,244 (432) OI % chg 4 1 1 (1)

Institutional activity
(Rs cr) FII's MF's FIIs Prov. MFs Prov. Cash (83.3) (82.0) 378.7 (321.4) F&O (306.2) MTD (530.5) 595.4 YTD (2,059.4) 6,192.5

Overall market
Index Future (Rs cr) Stock Future (Rs cr) Index Options (Rs cr) Stock Options (Rs cr) Index Future (Cont '000) Stock Future (Cont '000) Index Options (Cont '000) Stock Options (Cont '000) PCR (OI) PCR (VOI) 17-Oct11 10,891 12,478 80,786 3,761 457 496 3,157 146 1.1 0.6 14-Oct11 12,589 11,311 84,693 3,847 529 453 2,187 206 1.1 0.4 13-Oct11 13,606 13,063 38,812 1,863 574 522 3,588 161 1.3 0.5 Value % chg (13.5) 10.3 (4.6) (2.2) (13.7) 9.6 44.4 (29.3) 6.1 32.9

Nifty open interest chart


750 600 450 300 150 0 21-Jul-11 18-Aug-11 16-Sep-11 14-Oct-11 OI & Vol (lacs) Nifty 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000

Nifty strikes open interest


9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 4900 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500 OI in ('000) Put Call

Sector-wise OI
6 4 2 0 -2 % Chg

Real Estate

Metals

FMCG

Textile

Power

Sugar

IT

Automobiles

Market Mantra

Total Stock Future

Logistics

Cement

Capital goods & Infra

Pharma

Fertilizers

Banking

Oil & Gas

Telecom

Others

Media

Derivatives
Futures open interest gainers
Scrip Petronet Bankbaroda Sesagoa Bajajhind Gspl Voltas Gail Zeel Balramchin Axisbank Bhel OI ('000) 7,006.0 1,950.8 13,601.0 21,151.0 3,656.0 3,038.0 1,728.0 7,702.0 18,568.0 7,926.8 12,900.6 % change 22.4 12.3 11.1 11.0 9.2 8.7 8.1 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.5 CMP (Rs) 164.5 754.6 218.8 37.5 100.1 103.8 411.0 113.8 51.5 1,111.7 325.8 % change 4.9 (1.5) 0.3 (1.2) (2.7) (1.8) (1.5) 1.1 5.1 1.3 (2.4) Volume ('000) 9,742.0 665.0 4,924.0 5,735.3 1,096.0 1,146.0 505.5 3,812.0 4,396.0 3,892.3 2,650.6 % change 420.4 39.0 (34.4) (20.4) 29.2 (36.3) 7.9 219.8 20.4 8.8 18.3 Prem/Disc (Rs) (0.6) 5.3 1.3 0.8 (0.3) (0.3) (1.3) (0.6) (0.2) 10.1 (0.1)

Futures open interest losers


Scrip Bajaj-Auto Unionbank Beml Tatapower Lupin Relcapital Beml Ofss Brfl Iob Indianb OI ('000) 1,224.5 2,530.0 229.5 10,270.0 1,213.0 6,062.0 229.5 209.5 1,778.0 1,164.0 388.0 % change (2.9) (3.0) (5.6) (8.5) (13.0) (9.2) (5.6) (5.0) (3.7) (3.5) (3.2) CMP (Rs) 1,655.6 250.5 509.2 100.1 464.1 336.8 509.2 2,087.8 279.1 99.4 208.7 % change 1.1 (1.3) (1.5) (0.4) 1.5 (3.9) (1.5) 2.5 (0.7) 0.0 1.7 Volume ('000) 402.3 590.0 58.5 2,825.0 539.0 3,979.0 58.5 31.1 191.0 132.0 98.0 % change (9.8) 6.1 (81.8) 8.0 (17.7) 19.9 (81.8) 232.0 96.9 (23.3) (11.7) Prem/Disc (Rs) (1.2) 0.1 (0.3) (0.1) (0.1) (0.4) (0.3) 7.6 (0.6) 0.1 (0.1)

Most active stock calls


Scrip Reliance Reliance Reliance Sbin Sbin Sbin Reliance Tcs Tcs Tatamotors Strike 860 900 880 1900 1950 2000 840 1150 1200 190 OI ('000) 644.0 1,014.3 531.8 230.5 421.8 585.0 366.0 313.3 358.0 740.0 % change 17.8 7.7 (1.6) (2.6) 8.7 3.4 55.4 218.8 117.0 34.2 CMP(Rs) 8.3 2.2 4.1 39.0 21.8 11.5 15.8 17.4 6.3 4.0 Volume ('000) 6,245.0 4,237.0 4,117.0 3,664.0 3,423.0 2,758.0 3,022.0 2,088.0 1,653.0 1,872.0

Most active nifty calls


Strike 5100 5200 5300 5400 5000 5500 5200 5400 5300 4900 OI ('000) 5,294.4 6,872.8 6,161.3 4,152.4 2,756.6 2,052.7 1,034.3 1,649.0 987.1 1,087.1 % change 26.0 8.6 9.4 (0.2) (2.7) 12.3 27.0 26.7 28.2 (23.1) CMP(Rs) 80.3 35.0 11.6 3.7 149.8 1.4 119.3 47.0 77.7 236.0 Volume('000) 21,740.6 20,411.8 12,442.7 5,347.8 3,317.3 2,499.9 1,239.5 1,133.8 977.7 828.8

Most active stock puts


Scrip Reliance Sbin Tcs Reliance Reliance Infy Sbin Infy Reliance Tcs *OI= Open Interest Strike 840 1900 1100 820 860 2700 1800 2600 800 1120 OI ('000) 464.3 232.5 275.3 360.5 260.3 182.3 200.0 417.6 547.0 254.3 % change (18.3) (8.1) 82.9 (14.7) (26.8) 33.9 7.6 4.4 (9.5) 118.2 CMP(Rs) 19.1 52.6 16.9 10.5 31.0 28.3 16.2 9.6 5.5 26.0 Volume ('000) 4,400.0 2,481.0 2,089.0 2,237.0 2,048.0 1,164.0 1,705.0 1,061.0 1,641.0 1,120.0

Most active nifty puts


Strike 5100 5000 4900 4800 5200 4700 4600 4500 5100 5000 OI ('000) 4032.1 6275.6 6030.4 8721.3 1465.3 7188.8 3397.0 4839.5 721.7 985.9 % change (4.1) (4.4) (1.9) (1.3) 3.3 (1.2) (2.7) 2.1 39.9 9.5 CMP(Rs) 60.0 31.0 15.7 8.3 111.2 4.7 3.0 1.9 135.2 98.3 Volume('000) 25171.4 15552.9 9037.2 8971.0 6282.0 3988.1 2529.3 1518.6 926.0 866.7

Market Mantra

Mutual Funds
Fund focus UTI Opportunities Fund
Fund manager Latest NAV NAV 52 high/low Latest AUM Class Options Anoop Bhaskar Rs26.7 Rs29.8/25.0 Rs1,702cr Equity diversified Growth & dividend Min investment Entry load Exit load Benchmark Asset allocation Expense ratio

Invest
Rs5,000 Nil 1% before 1 year BSE 100 Equity (89%), Cash (10%) 1.94% (Absolute returns (in %) are based on previous close) Assets (Rs Cr) 9,220 3,783 1,576 NAV (Rs) 249.9 98.9 26.7 1wk 2.4 2.8 3.1 1mth (0.1) 1.3 0.1 3mth (11.1) (8.9) (3.5) 6mth (12.6) (9.8) (3.7) 1yr (15.8) (9.5) (5.4) 2yr 13.2 17.2 13.7 3yr 104.9 83.8 110.3 5yr 80.4 71.6 89.2

Top Recommended Funds


Equity Diversified/Largecap HDFC Equity Fund (G) ICICI Prudential Dynamic - (G) UTI Opportunities Fund (G) Equity Midcap DSP-BR Small & Mid Cap - (G) HDFC Mid-Cap Opp Fund (G) IDFC Premier Fund (G) Equity Tax saving Fidelity Tax Advantage (G) HDFC Tax Saver (G) ICICI Prudential Tax Plan (G) Hybrid DSP-BR Balanced Fund (G) HDFC Prudence Fund (G) Reliance RSF - Balanced (G) Debt Money market DSP-BR Money Manager -RP (G) HDFC Cash Mgmt Fund TA (G) Reliance Money Manager (G) Debt Floating rate ICICI Pru Floating Rate -D (G) Kotak Floater LTP (G) Tata Floater Fund (G) 4,083 3,991 5,375 152.6 16.4 15.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 2.2 2.3 2.3 6,023 729 1,842 22.2 1,446.3 1,386.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 2.1 2.1 2.1 1,119 3,114 1,323 17.6 212.1 131.0 1.4 2.5 2.8 (1.5) (0.6) 0.8 (7.9) (10.3) (8.0) 1,208 1,297 1,119 16.8 15.3 17.6 2.1 1.8 1.4 (1.1) (1.4) (1.5) (8.7) (8.7) (7.9)

(7.4) (2.5) (5.8) (15.0) (7.8) (12.3)

25.4 33.8 25.1

129.6 118.5 134.8 67.6 ---

(5.8) (10.6) (8.6)

(12.3) (15.1) (13.5)

25.1 14.8 20.2

134.8 88.6 106.4

-54.2 43.9

742 6,131 270

62.8 204.8 45.7

1.7 1.8 1.6

(1.3) (0.6) (1.2)

(6.9) (6.2) (5.5)

(6.4) (5.3) (2.8)

(10.3) (6.9) (2.1)

11.1 23.5 19.0

63.8 106.0 77.6

73.8 94.7 41.0

4.3 4.4 4.3

8.2 8.6 8.4

13.5 14.0 13.6

20.8 19.8 21.4

41.7 39.6 --

4.5 4.6 4.5

8.7 8.8 8.8

14.2 14.4 14.4

21.7 22.6 22.3

-44.8 44.3

NFO Update
Fund name DWS FTF Series 91 HDFC FMP 92D October 2011 (2) Tata Fixed Maturity Plan Series 37 B HDFC FMP 370D October 2011 (2) Kotak FMP Series 63
#OE: Open Ended, CE: Close Ended

Open date 04-Oct 14-Oct 11-Oct 14-Oct 14-Oct

Close date 18-Oct 18-Oct 18-Oct 19-Oct 20-Oct

Type CE CE CE CE CE

Class Debt - FMP Debt - FMP Debt - FMP Debt - FMP Debt - FMP

Recent Actions

HDFC FMP 92D July 2011 (2) declares dividend. The quantum of dividend will be 100% of distributable surplus as on the record date. The record date has been fixed as October 20, 2011. Franklin Templeton Mutual Fund declares dividend under Franklin India Opportunities Fund (Re0.70) and Franklin Infotech (Re1.5). The record date has been fixed as October 21, 2011. DSP BlackRock FMP Series 4 3 Months declares dividend. The record date has been fixed as October 19, 2011 HDFC FMP 370D September 2010 (2) declares dividend. The record date has fixed as October 19, 2011. ICICI Prudential Annual Interval Plan III declares dividend. The quantum of dividend will be Rs. 0.3704 per unit for retail and Rs. 0.3720 per unit for institutional plan. The record date has been fixed as October 19, 2011. Kotak Quarterly Interval Plan Series 5 declares dividend. The record date has been fixed as October 19, 2011.

Disclaimer: Mutual Fund is subject to market risk, please read the offer document carefully before investing.

Market Mantra

House Recommendations
House Recommendations

The large cap Buys and Sells are relative outperformer and underperformer bets vis--vis the Nifty respectively. Reduce portfolio weight in stocks with Sell rating. Midcap Buys are based on absolute return expectations. Top Large-cap Buys
Stock Sector Sector View

Axis Bank Hindalco ICICI Bank Infosys ITC Lupin M&M Tata Motors Tata Steel TCS

Banking Metals Banking IT FMCG Pharmaceuticals Automobiles Automobiles Metals IT

Positive Neutral Positive Neutral Positive Positive Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral

CMP (Rs) 1,122 130 899 2,747 206 464 813 188 440 1,120

M-Cap (Rs bn) 462.6 249.3 1,035.8 1,577.1 1,599.3 207.2 499.0 555.5 422.1 2,192.6

Source: India Infoline Research

Best Mid-cap Buys


Stock Sector

Glenmark Pharma Manappuram General Finance Indian Hotels Radico Khaitan


Source: India Infoline Research

Pharmaceuticals Finance Hotels Breweries

CMP (Rs) 293 57 69 121

M-Cap (Rs bn) 79.2 47.7 52.0 16.1

Top Sells
Stock ABB Bank of India Hotel Leelaventure Sector Capital goods Banking Hotel Sector View Negative CMP (Rs) 678 339 39 M-Cap (Rs bn) 143.8 185.4 15.0

Positive
Negative

Source: India Infoline Research

Market Mantra

TCS Ltd MP
(Q2 FY12)
Sector: Information Technology Sensex: CMP (Rs): Target price (Rs): Upside (%): 52 Week h/l (Rs): Market cap (Rscr) : 6m Avg vol (000Nos): No of o/s shares (mn): FV (Re): Bloomberg code: Reuters code: BSE code: NSE code: Shareholding pattern June '11 Promoters Institutions Non promoter corp hold Public & others Performance rel. to sensex (%) TCS Infosys Wipro HCL Tech 1m 8.3 14.2 4.5 12.5 3m 5.8 8.6 (5.9) (3.6) 1yr 33.5 5.3 (9.4) 17.3 (%) 74.1 20.9 0.4 4.6 17,025 1,120 1,190 6.3 1247 / 903 219,170 1,965 1,957 1 TCS IB TCS.BO 532540 TCS

Strong volume growth on expected lines; Realisation and cross currency impact negatively Broad based growth across verticals, services & geographies; Telecom and ADM subdued OPM performance beats expectation; Operational leverage, rupee depreciation offset pricing fall impact Employee additions and guidance on track; Attrition satisfactorily down Volumes momentum expected to continue in near term; Increase estimates marginally for margin beat and rupee depreciation Result table
(Rs mn) Net sales Operating profit OPM (%) Depreciation Interest Other income PBT Tax Effective tax rate (%) Other prov/minority etc Adjusted PAT Adj. PAT margin (%) Reported PAT EPS (Rs) Q2 FY12 116,335 33,829 29.1 2,286 997 32,540 7,913 24.3 237 24,390 21.0 24,390 12.5 Q1FY12 107,970 30,310 28.1 2,049 2,886 31,147 7,063 22.7 281 23,803 22.0 23,803 12.2 % qoq 7.7 11.6 100 bps 11.6 4.5 12.0 (15.7) 2.5 (108) bps 2.5 2.5 Q2 FY11 92,864 27,894 30.0 1,886 337 26,345 4,992 18.9 288 21,065 22.7 21,065 10.8 % yoy 25.3 21.3 (96) bps 21.2 23.5 58.5 (17.7) 15.8 (172) bps 15.8 15.8

Closing price as on 17 October, 2011.

Share price trend


TCS Sensex

Source: Company, India Infoline Research

150 120 90 60 Oct-10

Feb-11

Jun-11

Oct-11

Strong volume growth on expected lines; Realisation and cross currency impact negatively TCS continued its strong volume growth streak in Q2 FY12 with volume growth coming in at 6.3% qoq. While the volume growth was as per expectation, constant currency dollar revenue growth came in at 5.2% qoq impacted by ~100 bps of realisation correction. The realisation is estimated to be impacted due to services mix change& reduction in some higher realisation FPP projects (FPP contribution fell from 49.7% to 46.8%). Due impact of cross currency (-50bps), reported dollar revenues were up 4.7% sequentially. Management expected pricing to remain stable for FY12 (pricing uptick now being a low probability). Company won ten new large deals (US$100mn+) and stated the pipeline being robust, continuously chasing 10-12 large deals. The deal wins were pleasantly broad-based wrt geography as well as verticals. One of the most heartening part of the result was that despite choppy macro, confident commentary was given by the management in terms of demand environment and client spending dynamics. Outlook in terms of deals and pipeline continued to be bright as stated by the management.

October 18, 2011

TCS Ltd (Q2 FY12)

Broad based growth across verticals, services & geographies; Telecom and ADM subdued TCS performance continued to be one with a broad based growth. The company saw robust traction across its various verticals, service lines and geographies. Amongst verticals Retail (+9.2% qoq), Manufacturing (+7.4% qoq), Energy and Utilities (+18.5% qoq) were strong. BFSI growth, a key monitorable in current macro uncertainty, also grew well at 5.2% qoq. Within geographies, UK/Europe (+6.3% qoq), US (+5.4% qoq) and APAC (+7.6% qoq) saw strong growth. As far as service lines are concerned Engineering/Enterprise solutions/BPO lead the pack with 9.2%/7.6%/5% growth respectively. ADM amongst services and Telecom amongst verticals were notable areas were growth was subdued. OPM performance beats expectation; Rupee depreciation, operational leverage offset pricing fall impact As against our expectation of ~60bps expansion in OPM, the margin outperformed expanding 100bps on qoq basis. Strong operational leverage due to commendable volume growth and rupee depreciation related tailwind helped expand the margin against the headwinds of pricing fall and promotions. On the pricing front, management continued to maintain its stance of stable pricing with improvements in pricing (like-to-like) to be elusive. Forex loss of Rs910mn as well as lower income on reduced cash base (dividend payout for last FY as well as interim dividend for Q1 FY12) led to lower than expected Other income of Rs997mn. This coupled with higher tax rate (24.3% v/s 22.7% in Q1 FY12) led to net profits increasing softly by 2.5% qoq. Employee pyramid as well as utilization are key levers to help maintain margin going ahead, in our view. Employee additions and guidance on track; Attrition satisfactorily down TCS employee addition was strong qoq (as guided) with gross additions (~20350) being the highest in the history. Net additions were also quite robust at 12580 (10.1% of Q1 FY12 base). These strong additions along with the maintained full year guidance of 60000 employee adds, suggest decent demand traction as well as companys continued focus on maintaining enough buffer for future growth. Employee utilization level (excluding trainees) was maintained at similar levels. Also, management stated its willingness to inch it up further to 84%-85% level if need be. Attrition came down satisfactorily from 14.8% last quarter to 13.7% currently. Volumes momentum expected to continue in near term but is largely priced in; Increase estimates marginally for margin beat and rupee depreciation As expected, TCS delivered yet another quarter of strong volume performance. Management commentary as well strong deal win trajectory further indicate that the volume momentum would continue through H2 FY12 (adjusted for seasonality). TCS commentary on robust demand taken in conjunction with the strong 5.5% cqgr guidance given by Infosys for H2 FY12 makes us additionally confident on FY12 being relatively unaffected by the changing macro. For TCS, though the volumes continue to out-perform, a large part of this seems to be priced in the current valuations of the company (trading at 18x FY13E earning). Margin is expected to be range bound going ahead. We have increased our estimates marginally to Rs53.4/62.6 for FY12/13E to factor in the margin beat as well as weakened rupee. Even as strong run-up in the recent past the stock makes it relatively richly valued, we believe that it continues to be a Safe Haven for the sector and long term investors can maintain their hold on the same.

Result Update

TCS Ltd (Q2 FY12)

Financial summary
Y/e 31 Mar (Rs m) Revenues yoy growth (%) Operating profit OPM (%) Pre-exceptional PAT Reported PAT yoy growth (%) EPS (Rs) P/E (x) Price/Book (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) FY10 300,288 8.0 86,798 28.9 68,728 68,728 32.9 35.1 31.9 11.9 24.7 40.3 46.1 FY11 373,245 24.3 112,093 30.0 86,800 86,800 26.3 44.3 25.3 8.9 18.9 40.6 49.9 FY12E 482,537 29.3 140,849 29.2 104,513 104,513 20.4 53.4 21.0 6.8 14.6 37.0 47.9 FY13E 569,362 18.0 163,504 28.7 122,445 122,445 17.2 62.6 17.9 5.4 12.2 33.8 44.0

Source: Company, India Infoline Research

Result Update

HDFC Ltd Not Rated


(Q2 FY12)
Sector: NBFC Sensex: CMP (Rs): 52 Week h/l (Rs): Market cap (Rscr) : 6m Avg vol (000Nos): No of o/s shares (mn): FV (Rs): Bloomberg code: Reuters code: BSE code: NSE code:
Prices as on 17 Oct, 2011

17,025 673 750 / 582 98,979 2,746 1,471 2 HDFC IB HDFC.BO 500010 HDFC

Steady business performance amid rising rates; loans increase 19% yoy Spread was stable but NII growth strong; liability profile changes significantly Cost/Income sanguine ratio slightly improved; Asset quality remains

Additional provisioning met from additional reserve; RoA and RoE beat expectations Premium valuation to continue

Result table
(Rs mn) Interest Income Interest exp & other chg Net Interest Income Other operating Income Profit on sale of inv Other income Total Op. Income Operating expenses Pre-prov operating profit Provisions PBT Tax PAT Q2 FY12 38,541 26,905 11,636 2,230 869 52 13,865 1,238 13,548 170 13,378 3,670 9,708 Q2 FY12 Business perf. (Rs bn) Approvals Disbursements Loans Individual Corporate Bodies Others Borrowings Key Ratios (%) Spreads RoA RoE CAR Tier I GNPL (90 days overdue) 238 208 1,270 803 451 16 1,251 Q1 FY12 35,131 25,149 9,982 2,875 163 47 12,858 1,132 11,935 180 11,755 3,310 8,445 Q1 FY12 194 130 1,242 779 448 15 1,235 % qoq 9.7 7.0 16.6 (22.5) 434.3 11.6 7.8 9.4 13.5 (5.6) 13.8 10.9 14.9 chg qoq 22.6 60.0 2.3 3.1 0.7 8.3 1.3 (0.0) 0.3 2.0 (0.5) (0.0) Q2 FY11 27,371 17,176 10,195 1,695 590 47 11,890 1,041 11,485 150 11,335 3,260 8,075 Q2 FY11 207 175 1,063 683 365 15 1,092 % yoy 40.8 56.6 14.1 31.6 47.4 10.4 16.6 18.9 18.0 13.3 18.0 12.6 20.2 chg yoy 14.9 18.8 19.5 17.6 23.6 5.3 14.6 (0.0) 0.1 1.3 (0.3) (1.3) (0.0)

Shareholding pattern Sept '10 Promoters Institutions Non promoter corp hold Public & others Performance rel. to sensex (%) HDFC Ltd IDFC Ltd LIC Hsg Fin Dewan Hsg 1m 1.3 9.8 11.9 (0.2) 3m 5.0 (2.7) 14.4 8.2 1yr 8.0 (24.7) 1.4 (11.5) (%) 87.3 1.8 11.0

Share price trend

HDFC Ltd 110 100 90 80 70 Oct-10

Sensex

Feb-11

Jun-11

Oct-11

2.3 2.9 21.6 13.8 11.7 0.8

2.3 2.6 19.6 13.8 12.2 0.8

2.3 2.8 20.3 14.1 13.0 0.9

Source: Company, India Infoline Research

Steady business performance amid rising rates; loans increase 19% yoy HDFC delivered a strong business performance with the outstanding loan book increasing 19.5% yoy (24% yoy including sell downs). This remains consistent with the companys guidance of growing the book by 19-20% in the year. Over the past 12 months, the company has sold loans worth Rs50bn. There was some slowdown witnessed in approvals growth during the quarter (15% as compared to 22% in Q1 FY12) which could be mainly attributable to the rising cost of home loans. At the start of August, HDFC had hiked its Retail Prime lending Rate (RPLR) by 50bps. The disbursements growth remained strong at 19% yoy. Individual loans (25% yoy growth including sell downs) continue to comprise 63% of the portfolio.
October 18, 2011

HDFC Ltd (Q2 FY12)

Spread was stable but NII growth strong; liability profile changes significantly As expected the spread during the quarter was largely stable (2.28% v/s 2.3% in Q1 FY12). Increasing cost pressures seems to have been fully offset by the hike taken in the RPLR. A key highlight of the quarter was substantial shift in the liability profile towards Bonds and Debentures (comprised 49% of total borrowings v/s 42% in Q1 FY12). The significant increase in funding from Bonds and Debentures mainly substituted Term Loans from banks whose share declined to 26% (fell 22% in absolute terms). Give the current scenario, such change in liability profile should lend long-term stability and moderate near-term cost escalations. NII growth was significantly ahead of expectation at 17% qoq. HDFC continues to guide for spreads in the range of 2.15-2.35%. We expect stable spreads in coming quarters. Cost/Income ratio slightly improved; Asset quality remains sanguine Despite lower dividend income (due to seasonality) and a strong increase (9% qoq) in opex, the cost/income ratio marginally improved to 8.4% aided by robust fee income (38% qoq growth) and higher profit on investment sale (Rs869mn). Asset quality continues to be sanguine with stable GNPA (90 days overdue) at 0.82%. Notwithstanding the introduction of 0.4% standard asset provisioning on retail home loans for HFCs during the quarter, HDFCs provisioning was modest at Rs170mn due to excess provisioning cover carried by the company. The additional provisioning (~Rs2.6bn) on account of the above introduction was adjusted against the additional reserve (created over the years by higher-thanregulated provisioning). As at end September, the company still carried an additional provisioning reserve of ~Rs3.3bn thus providing cushion against any potential deterioration in the asset quality. Premium valuation to continue We expect HDFC to continue to trade at premium valuations due to high visibility for growth, exemplary margin management track record, relatively resilient asset quality and high profitability (RoA 2.5-2.7% and RoE 20-22%). The company is likely to outperform the Bankex and the broader market in the medium term.

Result Update

HDFC Ltd (Q2 FY12)

Marked deceleration in approvals growth while disbursements growth was strong


Approvals 40 32 (%) Disbursements

Loan growth at 20%, near the guided range


24 20 16

(%)

24
12

16 8 0 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12

8 4 0 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12

Source: Company, India Infoline Research

Loan profile largely unchanged individual loans comprising ~63%


Individuals 100% 80% Corporate Others

with

Spread was stable with cost increases offset by hike in RPLR


2.5 2.2 1.9
(%)

60% 40% 20% 0% 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12

1.6 1.3 1.0 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 1QFY12 2QFY12 2QFY12

Source: Company, India Infoline Research

Asset quality (GNPA) continue to improve


1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 (%)

CAR well-above the regulatory requirement


CAR 16.0 (%) 15.0 14.0 13.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 Tier I

Source: Company, India Infoline Research

Result Update

Economy
GDP growth (Quarterly)
14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 5.0 7.7 7.0 9.0 GDP (LHS) (Rs bn) (%) 11.0 GDP Growth % (RHS) 13.0

Inflation
12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 (2.0) May-08 Mar-09 Dec-07 Aug-09 Nov-10 Feb-07 Oct-08 Jan-10 Jun-10 Jul-07 Sep-11 25.0 20.0 16.3 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 May-11 Mar-11 Oct-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 Dec-10 Jul-11 Apr-11 (%) 9.7

G-Secs yield
9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 May-11 Nov-09 Nov-10 Mar-10 Mar-11 Jan-11 Oct-10 Jan-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Apr-10 8.54 (%) 10 Yr Gsecs 1 Yr Gsecs

M3 growth
75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 ` M3 (LHS) (Rs bn) M3 yoy % (RHS) (%) 68,588

CRR, Repo
9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 Nov-09 Nov-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-09 Sep-11 Dec-10 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 6.0 (%) CRR Repo 8.25

IIP and Six key infra industry growth


14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Nov-09 Nov-10 Mar-10 Mar-11 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 7.8 4.1 4.0 2.0 0.0 IIP growth Six key infra ind growth (%) 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0

Market Mantra

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

FDI

1,500

2,500

3,500

4,500

5,500

6,500

150
500

350

550

750

950

(500)

(650)

(450)

(250)

(50)

Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07

Aug-09
Dec-09 (US$ mn) Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10

(US$ bn)

(Rs bn)

Economy

Market Mantra

Fiscal deficit

Oct-09

Dec-09

Feb-10

Apr-10

Mar-08
Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11

Trade deficit (Quarterly)

Jun-10

Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11

Aug-10

Oct-10

Dec-10

Feb-11

Apr-11

Jun-11 448

Aug-11

10

15

20

(10)

250

260

270

280

290

300

310

320

330

(5)

100.0

20.0
Oct-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 312 (US$ bn) INR/USD INR/GBP INR/EURO INR/100 Yen 77.9

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

Aug-09

Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11

(US$ bn)

Oct-09

Dec-09

Feb-10

RBI forex reserves

Currency movement

Apr-10

May-10

Jul-10

Sep-10

Nov-10

Dec-10

Current account deficit (Quarterly)

Feb-11

Apr-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

48.9

68.4

61.8

Sep-11

Event Calendar
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday

October 03
Aug Exports YoY% 44.3% vs 81.8% Aug Imports YoY % 41.8% vs 51.5%

October 04

October 05

October 06

October 07
US unemployment rate 9.1% vs 9.1% US wholesale inventories 0.4% vs 0.8%

October 08
US consumer credit -$9.5b vs $11.9b

October 10

October 11

October 12
Sept IIP data YoY 4.1% vs 3.3%

October 13
US trade balance

October 14
Sept inflation data YoY% US business inventories GDL, RIIL

October 15

Sintex

TTK Prestige

Infosys

Praj Ind

Reliance Industries, Oberoi Realty

October 17
US Sep IIP

October 18
US producer price index yoy

October 19
US building permit mom% US housing starts mom% Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserve, HDFC Bank, IGL, Mastek, WWIL, Dish TV, Cromp Greaves, Hind Zinc, Rallis, Infotech Ent

October 20

October 21

October 22

HDFC, MindTree, TCS, Zee Ent, Mahindra Life

Patni Computers, IndusInd Bk, Crisil, HCL Tech, Hero Moto, Jet Air, Petronet Lng, NIIT Tech

Bajaj Auto, Hexaware, Thermax, Cairn India, Yes Bank, Biocon, Exide Ind, IDBI, KPIT, Pir Health, Ultratech Cem, Noida Toll, DB Corp

3iInfotech, Asian Paints, HCC, HT Media, L&T, JSW Steel, United Phos, Shopper Stop, Godrej Prop, Godrej Ind, Idea

Axis Bk, Grasim, Jagran, Power Grid, Suzlon

October 24

October 25
RBI policy meet

October 26

October 27
US GDP qoq

October 28

October 29

M&M Fin, Titan, Gail, ITC, Pfizer, Union Bk, Sterlite

Dr Reddys Lab, Eng Ind, NTPC, Sesa Goa

NHPC

Maruti

October 31

BPCL, Colgate, Dabur, OBC, Castrol, Wipro


Blue: Economic data, Black: results

Market Mantra

Recommendation parameters for fundamental reports: Buy Absolute return of over +10% Market Performer Absolute return between -10% to +10% Sell Absolute return below -10%

Published in 2011. India Infoline Ltd 2011 This report is for the personal information of the authorised recipient and is not for public distribution and should not be reproduced or redistributed without prior permission. The information provided in the document is from publicly available data and other sources, which we believe, are reliable. Efforts are made to try and ensure accuracy of data however, India Infoline and/or any of its affiliates and/or employees shall not be liable for loss or damage that may arise from use of this document. India Infoline and/or any of its affiliates and/or employees may or may not hold positions in any of the securities mentioned in the document. The report also includes analysis and views expressed by our research team. The report is purely for information purposes and does not construe to be investment recommendation/advice or an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any securities. The opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing in the material and may be subject to change from time to time without notice. Investors should not solely rely on the information contained in this document and must make investment decisions based on their own investment objectives, risk profile and financial position. The recipients of this material should take their own professional advice before acting on this information. India Infoline and/or its affiliate companies may deal in the securities mentioned herein as a broker or for any other transaction as a Market Maker, Investment Advisor, etc. to the issuer company or its connected persons. This report is published by IIFL India Private Clients research desk. IIFL has other business units with independent research teams separated by 'Chinese walls' catering to different sets of customers having varying objectives, risk profiles, investment horizon, etc and therefore, may at times have, different and contrary views on stocks, sectors and markets. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to local law, regulation or which would subject IIFL and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

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