W&C 12

(}lt -,'
[.?'"
i,
t.''g
*'
l'$. ' rtr-,

a.,
i"
fin
a\
')
'inrni
I
(.
,/,
:ri
r;:i'1
,i.bl
:l;
'
i.
*t
obody who lived in southern Florida during the August 1992 passage of Hurricane Andrew (Figure 12-l ) will ever forget the experience. Andrew was fairly small but remarkably powerful, with wind gusts of up to 280 km/hr (1 75 mph) that moved rapidly across the peninsula. ln one
regard Andrew was not as destructive as many other hurricanes; although it did cause some local flooding, it dd not yield extremely heavy rainfall. This contrasts strongly with Florida's experience with Hurricane lrene in October 1999. lrene was typical of the strong tropical storms that form in the latter part of hurricane season: large and slow moving. Although these storms lack the wind speeds of storms such as Andrew, they can bring heavy rainfall for days and cause extensive flooding. ln the case of lrene, much of southern Florida received up to 27 cm (17 in.) of rainfall that produced widespread flooding. Nadia Gorriz of Miami-Dade County was among the many victims. The floodwaters that created a swamp around her house made it uninhabitable for humans but perfectly fine for the snakes and fish that took up residence. She put the cleanup in perspective: "We made it through Andrew. You just threw everything out and there wasn't that much water. This is the worst cleanup. We've gone through two gallons of Clorox ll. So far." Hurricanes do not restrict their fury to coastal and inland regions; they have been the nemesis of mariners for centuries. They have sunk an untold number of ships and even played a role in World War ll when a single typhoon (the equivalent of a hurricane over the western Pacifc) sank or heavily damaged several U.S. ships, destroyed hundreds of carrier-based aircraft, and killed more than 800 sailors. The death toll exceeded that of most naval battles during the war. ln this chapter we first describe the setting for hurricanes and tropical storms. We then describe their general characteristics, stages of development, and typical patterns of movement, concluding with hurricane monitoring and warning systems.
A$?T,ffi
ffi #[F"]'
6._ F
il.j
Modified satellite image showing the progression of Hurricane Andrew .1 as it crossed Florida and entered the Gulf of Mexico in August 992. ^
372 CHAPTER
12
Tropical Storms and Hurricanes
Hurricanes Around the Globe: The Tropical Setting

Extremely strong tropical storms go by a number of different names, depending on where they occur. Over the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific they are known as hurricanes. Those over the extreme western Pacific are called typhoons; those over the Indian Ocean and
Australia, simply cyclones. In structure, the three kinds of storms are essentially the same, although
typhoons tend to be larger and stronger than the others. We will use the term hurricane for the general class of storm, regardless of location.
Most U.S. residents associate hurricanes with storms that form in the Atlantic Ocean or the Gulf of Mexico. Yet other parts of the world have a much greater incidence of hurricanes (Table 72-l and Figure 12-2).The Atlantic
and Gulf of Mexico receive an average of 5.9 hurricane. each year, while the eastem North Pacific off the coast o: Mexico has an average of 9.0. Most tropical storms in the east Pacific move westward, away from population cer.ters, and so they receive little public attention. Sometimes, however, they migrate to the northeast and brin: severe flooding and loss of life to western Mexico. The region having the greatest number of these events-by far-is the western part of the North Pacific ln a typical year, nearly 17 typhoons hit the region. Ever during the least active season between 1968 and 200i there were 9 typhoons. At the other extreme, no hurricanes form in the Southern Hemisphere Atlantic, ever at tropical latitudes (except for a very unusual event of the coast of Brazil in 2004). As you will see late1, hurricanes depend on a large pool of warm watet a condition that does not arise in the relatively small Soutl^
Atlantic basin.
Hurricane/Typhoon/Severe
Tropical Storm (greater than
17 mls sustained winds)
Tropical Cyclone (greater than

33 m/s sustained winds)
lntense Hurricane (greater than

50 m/s sustained winds)
Basin Atlantic
Most
'19
Least 4
(1e83)
Average
10.6
(1ees) Northeast Pacific 27

(1ee2)
Most 12
(1e6e)
Least 2
(1e82)
Average
5.9
Most 602.0
(1996
Least
(several)
Average
and
2004)
8
(1e77)
16.3 26.7 5.4 13.3
Northwest
Pacific
35
(1e71)
11
17
(1ee8)
16 4 (1969, (1990) 1e77) 24 I
9.0 16.9
(1e71)
(1ee8)
Northern lndian
Ocean Southwest lndian Ocean
2
(1ee3)
(1ee2) 18 (1se7)
7
(1e83)
1
(1998) (several) 11 2 (1971 , (1974, 1994, 1998)

1997)
502.2
6.7
10 o (1992) (several) 14 3 (1e72) (1e74) 300.4 (1999) (several) 602.7 (1980, (several)
1 994, 2002)
4.1
8.5
Australia/Southeastern Ocean western Pacific Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere Globally
lndian
13 (1982) 18 (1ee8)
8 (1973,
1
(1e88)
e85)
0 (several) 0 (1e71)
5 (1e80,
1981) b (2003)
0 (several) 0 (several)
Australia/South-
4
(1ee1)
10.6
12 (1ee8)
76
(1ee2)
39
(1e77) 19 (1ee1)
58.7
47
(1e71) 22 (1ee7)
24
(1e77) 7 (1e6e)
33.7
14.5
(1ee2)
235
1
15.1
(1e77)
O
38
(1ee7)
29.0
106 (1ee2)
68 (1977)
87.7
64
(1eeo)
36
(1e77)
48.3
1e94, 2003) 347 (1ee2)
(1992,
5.9
(196e,
1974) 21.0
(1e77)
Hurricane Characteristics
373
90
:--S<-__,,_.-
>:
120
150
180'
150
60 ;.
i!: i-*
lt,.
l_
\\ t.l
,0
,:,
Tropic of Cancer
I
PACIFIC
_-
:
June-October
SOUTH
AFR I CA
AFRICA,
I
OCEAN
(!
_/ /\
'r'r-E:.i:
,
\_ ' '-l'
January-March
Tropic of Capricorn
-.
AMERICA
ii'lili,lrti;i8i
INDIAN OCEAN
) AUSTRALIA
... 1,500 3,000 Miles 0 _r--.-]-0 1,500 3,000 KilometeE

ANTARCTICA
.'.;,,
Typhoons,cyclones,
and hurricanes
I-
ATLANTIC
OCEAN
[-l
Hurri""n".on"t
,-' .t'
60
FIGUHE
12-z
Hurricanes around the globe.
^
In Chapter 8 we saw that during much of the year air spirals out of massive high-pressure cells that occupy large parts of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Middle- and upper-level air along the eastern side of these anticyclones sinks as it approaches the west coasts of the adjacent continents. Because the air does not descend all the way to the surface, a subsidence inversion (see Chapter 6) forms above the surface. This particular subsidence inversion is called the trade wind inversion. The air below the inversion, called the marine layer, is cool and relatively moist. The thickness of the marine layer and the height of the inversion base vary across the tropical oceans. The inversion is lowest along the eastern margins of the oceans, where upwelling and cold ocean currents maintain a relatively cool marine layer. Here the inversion may be only a few hundred meters above the surface' Farther to the west, the warmer surface waters heat the marine layer and cause it to expand to a greater height. Over the eastem part of the oceans, the low inversion inhibits vertical cloud growth, and low stratus clouds
often occupy the region. Farther to the west, the greater height of the inversion (or even its total disappearance) allows for more convection, and deep cumulus clouds are more likely to form. For this reasory more hurricanes occur along the western portion of the ocean basins'
wind speeds of 120 km/hr (7a mph) or greater' Though their wind speeds are less than those of tomadoes, hurricanes are very much larger and have far longer lifespans.
Sea level pressure near the center of a pical hurricane is around 950 mb, but pressures as low as 870 mb have been
observed for extremely powerful hurricanes. The weakest hurricanes have central Pressures of about 990 mb. In contrast to tornadoes, whose diameters are typically measured in tens of meters, hurricanes are typically about 600 kilometers (350 mi) wide. Thus,
the typical hurricane has a diameter thousands of times greater than that of a tornado. Remembering that the area of a circle is proportional to the square of its radius, and knowing that tornadoes and hurricanes are roughly circular, we see that the area covered by a hurricane is likely to be millions of times greater than the area covered by a tornado. Furthermore, a tornado exists only for a couple of hours at most, while a hurricane can have a lifetime of several
days or even a week or more. Though hurricanes are usually about one-third the size of midlatitude cyclones, the pressure difference across a hurricane is about twice as great' They therefore have extreme horizontal pressure gradients that generate powerful winds: Average hurricanes have peak winds of about 150 km/hr (90 mph), and the most intense hurricanes have winds up to 350 km/hr (210 mph). In addition to being smaller and more powerful than midlatitude cyclones, hurricanes differ by not having the fronts that characterize cyclones outside the tropics. Because hurricanes obtain most of their energy from the latent heat released by condensation, they are most common where a deep layer of warm water fuels them. Given that tropical oceans have their highest surface
Hu
rricane Characteristics
Hurricanes are the most powerful of all storms. The energy ureashed by just a single hurricane can exceed the annual electrical consumption of the United States and Canada. By definition, hurricanes have sustained
374 CHAPTER 12
Tropical StormsandHurricanes
temperatures and evaporation rates in late summer and early fall, it is not surprising thatAugust and September are the prime hurricane months in the Northern Hemisphere, with January to March the main season in the Southem Hemisphere.l
Hurricane Structure
;; ;;;.;;;;;;;; ;"; ;;;;; ;;";;:_ ""', ";;;;"; Instead they contain a large number of thuntive cell. derstorms arranged in a pinwheel formation, with
bands of thick clouds and heavy thundershowers spiraling counterclockwise (in the Northern Hemisphere)
inward toward lower pressure, the warm ocean surface supplies large amounts of latent and sensible heat to the overlying air. Because pressure within the moving air decreases as it flows toward the low, adiabatic expansion keeps the temperature from increasing dramatically, with the result that there is little temperature difference across the base of the storm. Nevertheless, much thermal energy is added, resulting in a "warm" central core. Aloft, after condensation and the release of latent heat, the warmth is reflectec in temperature, so that temperatures near the center are much higher than those of the surrounding air
(Figure 12-5). As a warm-core low, pressure within a hurricane decreases relatively slowly with increasing altitude (see Chapter 10). Thus, the horizontal pressure gradient within the storm gradually decreases with altitude. At about7.5 km (25,000 ft)-about the 400 mb level-the air pressure is the same as that immediately outside the storm. From this height to the lower stratosphere, the hurricane has relatively high pres-
around the storm center (Figure 12-3). The bands of heavy convection are separated by areas of weaker uplift and even descending air and less intense precipitation. The wind speed and the intensity of precipitation both increase toward the center of the system (its eye), reaching a maximum 10 to 20 km (6 to 12 mi) away from the center, at what is called tlne eye wall (the eye and eye wall are described in the next section). Figure 724 depicts generalized cross sections
through a hurricane. The thickness of the cloud bands (a) corresponds well to the intens of rainfall @). On the other hand, the distributions of pressure (c) and wind speed (d) do not exhibit a similar banding. Both the pressure gradient and wind speed increase gradually toward the center of the storm and then increase rapidly in the
vicinity of the eye wall. Hurricanes also differ from midlatitude cyclones in that they are warm-core cyclones. As air flows
United States National Hurricane Center defines the hurricane season as the period from June 1 to November 30. Tiopical storms in other months are rare events-from 7871, to 7996, only six storms formed in December. lThe
sure. So unlike the lower part of the hurricane in which the air rotates cyclonically, the air in its upper portion spirals anticyclonically from its center (clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere). Figure 12-6 shou-s a schematic of how surface winds typically florr inward, then rapidly rotate around the eye wall as they ascend to higher levels, and then spiral outward. In the upper reaches of the storm, the low temperatures cause water droplets to freeze into ice crystals. As the ice crystals spiral out of the storm center, they create a blanket of cirrostratus clouds that overlies and obscures the pinwheel-like structure of the storm. That explains whyhurricanes on satellite images often appear to have a uniform thickness and intensity, when in fact
they are strongly banded.
>
FiURE 12-3 Across-section
of a typical hurricane.
I
I
I (a)
;Fpt1'[1*itk,ry, *U
+++
rorrentialf
[S + u u + W
+++
fi*fffiffi.
rensthorthearrows
tb
I
II
1
I
I I
l..r'l
RAINFALL
-.:;[t
Strongest
Strongest
Pressure-\ / gradent -Pressure \_/ PRESSUBE gradient
wlND
""
SPEED f1 /
.,'\ r \ \
,,";;r*:f /;\ 'r,tlmoh\l-
Winds stronoer on risht side lo;kins in direction hurricane is moving
1, I ;l-.. I
+5
+10
oC Temoerature difference in
,
ir
+11
!o
+e
':!'
+4
I s,[.' \l -11 ! .[ b.'*z---'-- -1,!AJl r I :[.' trui

,
I < -L
Distance from center (km)
\\ / \\\Jti
..""""-'
.Hffi
*'l
]*':
]uooE
.^^
.r]:::
o-
! ;[*1-=a I'i-"il1", I 'l ,k

,;
I;,.
l'ooo
376
cFrAr:ttritr .iil
DID
YCDU
KNOW?
Although hurricane wind speeds are, by definition, extremely fast, it still takes a parcel of air an average of 8 days to flow into and out of a hurricane.
passage of the eye lasts about an hour or two. Clearly, ii the eye just grazes the island, the break in the storm will be even shorter. Some intense hurricanes develop double eye walls. as surrounding rain bands contract and intensify. As the interior eye wall contracts, it can begin to dissipate and
flcLil?H J*6 Air trajectories initially rise gradually

as they approach a hurricane eye wall. Most rapid ascent occurs in the eye wall until the air reaches the upper
troposphere and flows outward anticyclonically.
THE EYE AND THE EYE WALL

One of the rnost distinctive characteristics of a hurricane is its eye, a region of relatively clear skies, slowly descending air, and light winds. Hurricane eyes average about 30 km (20 mi) in diameter, with most ranging from 20 to 50 km (15 to 30 mi). Eye diameters vary considerably among individual storms, with some as small as 6 km (3.5 mi) and others almost as large as 100 km (60 mi). The change in the size of an eye through time
gives some indication of whether the hurricane is intensifying or weakening. Generally, a shrinking eye indicates an intensifying hurricane. Along the margin of the eye lies the eye wall, the zone of most intense storm activity. The eye wall contains the strongest winds, thickest cloud cover, and most intense precipitation of the entire hurricane. Directly beneath the eye wall, rainfall rates of 2500 mm/day (100 inlday) are not uncommon. The abrupt transition from an eye wall to the eye causes a strong and rapid change in weather. Imagine a hurricane about to make a direct hit on a small island. As the hurricane center approaches the island, the intensity of the wind and rain steadily increase, becoming most intense as the eye wall arrives. But when the eye reaches the island, the storm seems to suddenly dissipate, as blue skies and calm conditions take hold. Of course, the storm has not dissipated at all. Rathel, there is just a brief lull until the opposite side of the eye wall covers the island and storm conditions resume. Because the average hurricane eye is about 30 km (18 mi) in diameter and travels at about 20 km/hr, (12 mph) the calm associated with
the surrounding band can take its place. Figure 12-l shows this process occurring in Hurricane Emily in 2005, with the outer band of rainfall (shown as green arcs embedded with red areas of heavier activitr-r surrounding the small eye wall in the center. The existence of double eye walls often indicates a hurricane is achieving its maximum strength. NASA scientists have recently uncovered the existence of hot towers (Figure 12-8) embedded in some eye walls that last between 30 minutes and 2 hours. Hot towers are localized portions of eye walls that rise to greater heights (up to 72 km, or 7 mi) than the rest of the eye wall. The researchers found that development of hot towers indicates a greater likelihood that the hurricane will intensify within the next 6 hours. The air temperature at the storm's surface within an eye is several degrees warmer than outside the eve because compression of the sinking air causes it io warm adiabatically. The air is also drier, because warming the unsaturated air lowers its relatir.e humidity. Contrary to common belief, however, the air is not entirely cloud free within the eye; instead, fair-weather cumulus clouds are scattered throughout the otherwise blue sky.
Hurricane Formation
Hurricanes do not suddenly appear out of nowhere; they begin as much weaker systems that often migrate large distances before turning into hurricanes. In this section we examine hurricane development, with particular emphasis on how it occurs in the Atlantic.
STEPS IN THE FORMATION OF HURRICANES

Although most tropical storms attain hurricane status in the western portions of the oceans, their earliest origins often lie far to the east as small clusters of small thunderstorms called tropical disturbances. Tiopical disturbances are disorganized groups of thunderstorms having weak pressure gradients and little or no rotation.
HurricaneFormation 377
<
F*iJH
12-f
Some hurricanes
t,
*'
d-
t"t
develop double eye walls, such as Hurricane Emily in 2005. UsuallY occurring as the hurricane achieves maximum strength, both eYe walls contract, with the innermost eye wall eventually dissipating and giving way to the outer eye wall.
-t
{i I
Tropical disturbances can form in several different environments. Some form when midlatitude troughs migrate into the tropics; others develop as part of the normal convection associated with the ITCZ. But most tropical disturbances that enter the western Atlantic and become hurricanes originate in easterly waves, large undulations or ripples in the normal trade wind pattern. Figure 12-9 illustrates a typical easterly wave. B"crrre pressure gradients in the tropics are normally
weaker than those of the extratropical regions, the east-
erly waves are better shown by plotting lines of wind direction (called streamlines) rather than isobars' The air in the wave initially flows westward, turns poleward, and then flows back toward the equator, u'ith the entire wave pattern extending 2000 to 3000 km (1200 to 1800 mi) in length. On the upwind (eastern) side of the axis, the streamlines become progressively closer together, indicating that surface motions are convergent. With
<
FISLJ[AH
i**$
This hot
tower in Hurricane Rita in 2005 was observed by NASAs

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission fl-RMM) sPacecraft. These localized areas of deeP cloud cover and intense precipitation often Precede hurricane intensification.
378 CHAPTEH
12
40'
wdFE
s
II
ll
'---'-r"
#\$ <
1"4
\b " -\qr
ATLANTIC OCEAN
Tropical disturbance
i.iro0 500 500

.1,000
Mites
1.000 KilomtB
7?"-'-
FIGURE
12-9
Easterly waves have surface convergence and cloud cover east of the axis and divergence to the west.
axis (the dashed line) of the easterly wave. Surface divergence downwind of the wave axis leads to clear skies. (An explanation for why the streamlines are convergent and divergent is somewhat complicated; the main factor involves changes in relative vorticity that occur as the air moves poleward and equatorward.) The tropical disturbances that affect the Atlantic Ocearl Caribbean, and the Americas mostly form over westem Africa, south of the Saharan desert. Being in the zone of the trade winds, these storms tend to migrate westward. When they reach the west coast of Africa, they weaken as they pass over the cold Canary current over the eastem Atlantic. There the low water temperatures chill the air near the water surface and cause the air to become statically stable. If the disturbances migrate beyond the coastal zone of surface upwelling, howevel, warmer waters farther offshore raise the temperafure and humidity of the lower atmosphere and cause the air
to become unstable. Then, as the storms continue westward, a small percentage develop into more intense and organized thunderstorm systems. Easterly waves move westward at about 15 to 35 km/hr (10 to 20 mph), and so it typically takes about a week to 10 days for an embedded tropical disturbance to migrate across the Atlantic. The vast majority (probably more than 90 percent) of tropical disturbances die out without ever organizing into more powerful systems. But some undergo a lowering of pressure and begin to rotate cyclonically. IrVhen a tropical disturbance develops to the point where there is
convergence there is rising motion (see Chapter 6); thus the tropical disturbance is located upwind of the wave
at least one closed isobar on a weather map, the disturbance is classified as a tropical depression. If the depres-
above 60 krn/fu (37 mph), it becomes a tropical (At this point the system is named. See Box 12-1,
sion intensifies further and maintains wind
speed=
sto*r
Speci.;..
Interest: Naming Hurricanes, for more information on
thl.
practice.) A further increase in sustained wind speeds tr 120k;rn/fu (7amph) creates a true hurricane. lA/hile on,.
a small fraction of tropical disturbances ever becom. tropical depressions, a Larger proportion of depressior-. become tropical storms, and an even greater percentaq of tropical storms ultimately become hurricanes. The location at which hurricanes are most likelr, tc form varies seasonally. Early in the Atlantic r"uro.. weak fronts in the western ocean extend southn arc over warm tropical water. Wind shear across the fron's provides the circulation necessary for cyclone development. Later in the seasory fronts are confined to highe: latitudes and no longer play a role in cyclogensis Instead, warm waters are found progressively farther ti the east, so that disturbances leaving the African contnent can grow into full-scale cyclones. (Systems tha: become tropical storms in the tropical waters just o= westem Africa and become hurricanes before reachh: the Caribbean are often referred to as Cape Verde lttn.r:canesl so named for the islands near which they orignate.) The net effect is that the birthplace of tropiiacyclones moves from west to east across the tropica_ ocean during the first half of the season. Lr the late fa[ the breeding ground moves westward as frontal actir.ii. again emerges as a primary agent of cyclone genesis.
Hurricane Movement and
Dissipation 379
As with their Atlantic counterparts, Pacific hurriduring their formative stages. Many come near Hawaii, but most bypass the islands or die out before reaching them. Unfortunately, this is not always the case. In September 1992, Hurricane Iniki battered the island of Kauai with wind gusts up to 258 km/hr (160 mph) and brought heavy flooding to the beach resort areas. The hurricane destroyed or severely damaged half of the homes on the island and devastated most of the tourist industry.
canes move westward
speeds? No, because they are ultimately limited by the supply of latent heat, which in turn is constrained by the temperature of the ocean below and by the
processes underlying evaporation and convection. The importance of ocean temperature suggests that if the oceans were to become warmer/ hurricanes would
theoretically become more intense. This topic has received considerable attention lately because of the
possibility
of climatic warming, which could be
accompanied by higher ocean temperatures.
CONDITIONS NECESSARY FOR HURRICANE FORMATION

Aithough the dynamics of hurricanes are extremely complex, meteorologists have long recognized the conditiors that favor their development. Great amounts of heat are needed to fueI hurricanes, and the primary source of this
energy is the release of latent heat supplied by evaporation from the ocean surface. Because high evaporation rates
Hurricane Movement and Dissipation

The movement of tropical systems is related to the stage in their development. Tropical disturbances and depressions are guided mainly by the trade winds and, therefore, tend to migrate westward. The influence of the trade winds often diminishes after the depressions inten-
depend on the presence of warm watel hurricanes form only where the ocean has a deep surface layer (several tens of meters in depth) with temperatures above 27"C (81'F). The need for warm water precludes hurricane formation poleward of about 20 degrees; sea surface temperatures are usually too low there. Hurricanes develop most often in late sununer and early fall, when tropical waters are warmest. Hurricane formation also depends on the Coriolis force, which must be strong enough to prevent filling of the central low pressure. The absence of a Coriolis
sify into tropical storms. Then the upperlevel winds and the spatial distribution of water temperature more strongly determine their speed and direction (with the
storms tending to move toward warmer seas).
HURRICANE PATHS Once fully developed, tropical
effect at the equator prohibits hurricane formation

between 0o and 5" latitude. This factor and the need for high water temperatures explain the pattern shown in Figure 12-2, in which tropical storms attain hurricane status between the latitudes of 5o and 20o. Stability is also important in hurricane development, with unstable conditions throughout the troposphere an
storms become more likely to move poleward, as shown in Figures 12-2 and 12-10. Figure 12-11 shows the locations of all hurricane landfalls from 1950 through 2007. (Box 12-2, Special
lnterest: 2004 and 2005: Two Historic Hurricane Seasons), describes the paths and damage done by several notable hurricanes of these two remarkable hurricane
absolute necessity. Along the eastem margins of the oceans, cold currents and upwelling cause the lower troposphere to be statically stable, inhibiting uplift. Moreover, the trade wind inversion puts a caP on any mixing that might otherwise occur. Moving westward, water temperatures pically increase and the trade wind inversion increases with height or disappears altogethel, and
so hurricanes become more prevalent. Finally, hurricane
formation requires an absence of strong vertical wind shear, which disrupts the vertical transport of latent heat.
Once formed, hurricanes are self-propagating (just as
years. Hurricanes and tropical storms often move in wildly erratic ways-for example, moving in a constant direction for a time, then suddenly changing speed and direction, and even backtracking along its previous path. Figure 12-12plots some particularly erratic paths along the east coast of North America. While hurricanes can hit any part of the Gulf of Mexico or Atlantic coasts at any time during hurricane season, they have a greater likelihood of taking particular paths during different months. Figure 12-13 shows the likelihood of hurricane passage for August (a), September (b), and October (c). In August, the most likely path of
hurricanes tracks over the West Indies. From there, hurricanes are about equally likely to track toward the Texas coast or along the Atlantic coast from Florida to North Carolina. Two prominent paths dominate in September' One goes from between the Yucatan Peninsula and westem Cuba, northward toward the cenkal Gulf of Mexico coasU the other moves northward from around Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico into the western Atlantic. Hurricanes taking the more easterly track are most likely to hit the middle Atlantic states if they make landfall. October paths exhibit a greater tendency to track
severe storms outside the tropics are self-maintaining). That is, the release of latent heat within the cumulus clouds causes the air to warm and expand upward. The expansion of the air supports upper-level divergence, which draws air upward and promotes low pressure and convergence at the surface. This leads to continued uplift, condensatiory and the release of latent heat.
So if hurricanes are self-propagating, can they intensify indefinitely, until they attain supersonic
380
CI.{APTH
12
: |
,.i9fl1 -'..ltlrii.t:.
1-I
l
During hurricane season, several tropical
storms or hurricanes can arise simultaneously over various oceans. Meteorologists identify these systems by assigning names when they reach tropical storm status. The World Meleorological Organizalion WMO) has created several lists of names for tropical storms over each
ocean. The names on each list are
beginning of the following season, names are taken from the next list, regardless of how many names were
unused in the previous season, Six lists
ordered alphabetically, starting with the letter A and continuing up to the letter W. When a depression attains tropical storm status, it is assigned the next unused name on that year's list. At the
have been compiled for the cycle. English, Spanish, and
Atlantic
Ocean, and the names on each list are used again at the end of each 6-year
Frenclnames are used for Atlantic hurricanes. l: all the available names on a season's list are used, subsequent storms will be given the names of the letters of the
Greek alphabet. Thus, the 22nd namec
2009
Ana Bill Claudette Danny Erika

Fred
2010 Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle

Earl
Grace
Fiona Gaston
Hermine
Henri lda Joaquin Kate Larry Mindy Nicholas Odette

Peter Rose
lgor
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Sam Teresa Victor Wanda
Otto Paula Richard Shary Tomas Virginie Walter
2011 Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harvey lrene Jose Katia Lee Maria Nate Ophelia Philippe Rina
Sean Tammy Vince Whitney
2012 Alberto
Beryl Chris Debby
2013 Andrea Barry Chantal Dorian

Erin
2014"
Arthur
Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard
Fay
Ernesto Florence Gordon

Helene lsaac
Fernand Gabrielle
Gustav Hanna lke Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana Omar Paloma
Rene
Humberto
lngrid Jerry
Karen
Joyce
Kirk Leslie Michael Nadine Oscar Patty

Rafael
Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien

Tanya Van
Sandy Tony Valerie William
Sally Teddy Vicky Wilfred
Wendy
List effective as of summer 2008. Subject to change if any names are retired following the 2OOB season.
Hurricane Movement and

storm for a season would be Alpha. This is exactly what happened in October 2005
Dissipation 381
when Tropical Storm Alpha appeared in the western Atlantic-the first time ever that the list of names was unable to accommodate all of the tropical storms in
a single season.
are made with names of the same gender and language. As of early 2OO8,70 names had been retired from the Atlantic hurricane list. lf a hurricane with a Greek letter merits special designation, it would do so with its year appended
Particularly notable hurricanes can

have their names "retired" by the WMO if an affected nation requests the removal of that name from the list. All replacements
to the letter. Thus if in 2013 Alpha is very destructive, it can be noted as

Alpha 2013.
War ll when meteorologists in the Pacific assigned female names (possibly after wives and girlfriends) to tropical storms and typhoons. This practice was adopted by the U.S. National Weather Service (then called the Weather Bureau) in 1953 and maintained until 1979, when male
names were added
to the lists' The names for Atlantic and east Pacific hurrisented in Tables 1 and 2.
The practice of naming hurricanes

appears
canes for the years 2OO9-14 are pre-
to have begun during
World
2009 Andres Blanca Carlos Dolores Enrique

Felicia Guillermo
2010
Hilda
2012 Aletta Adrian Agatha Bud Beatriz Blas Carlotta Calvin Celia Daniel Dora DarbY Emilia Eugene Estelle Fernanda Fabio Frank Gilma Georgette Greg Hector Hilary Howard
2011
2013
Alvin Barbara Cosme Dalila Erick Flossie
Gil
2014* Alma Boris Cristina Douglas Elida Fausto Genevieve Hernan lselle
Henriette lvo
lgnacio Jimena Kevin

_Linda
lsis Javier KaY

Lester Madeline Newton
Orlene Paine
BoslYn
lleana lrwin John Jova Kenneth KristY

Lidia Max Norma
Otis
Jullette
Kiko Lorena Manuel Narda Octave Priscilla RaYmond Sonia
Julio
Karina Lowell Marie Norbert Odile Polo Rachel Simon Trudy Vance Winnie Xavier Yolanda
Marty Nora
Lane Miriam Norman

Olivia
Olaf Patricia Rick Sandra Terry Vivian Waldo Xina York Zelda
*
SeYmour Tina
Virgil Winifred Xavier Yolanda Zeke
Pilar Ramon Selma Todd Veronica WileY Xina York Zelda
Paul Rosa Sergio Tara Vicente Willa Xavier Yolanda Zeke
Tico
Velma Wallis Xina York
Zelda
Zeke
season. Effective as of summer 2008. Subject to change if any names are retired after the 2008
A The tracks of all western Atlantic and eatern Pacific major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher), from 1g5l -2007 for the Atlantic and 1949-2007 in the pacific.
Esmtftmcmtafi UmErfd Hunmfleame Smnktss* flg5ts - 2tsW7

crn.n r/on-r o
\eonn
\Bob it991
r
irou)
Sallir-Simpson Htrricane Iategories ..

Sustained
74-e5 Category 96-110 Category 2 111-130 Category 3 131-1ss lD Category 4 >15s (], i_]r.r.r,i)
1
.t
Hilda 1199)
,r, \zoo2t
li ,.
I c,*i
"
O Flossy il956r Danry^i !9q/) '
Ftorenar trgB)Earr r r95n) ser<v i tq6i, Gladyr t1968 Bobll979) Wima (2005 Geoqes (1998i
iz'cbir'
oavLd 11979) .Eio 11995)
B.el (1999) Aikn (1980)
i King (1950) eo,., i,coo,
xJ,na t2005)
A The locations of all hurricane landfalls over the continental United States from 1950 through 2007. Saffir-Simpson categories are those at the time of landfall.
Hurricane Destruction and
Fatalities 383
DTD YOU I(NOW?

A quick glimpse of Figure 12-2 reveals that hurricanes never occur in the South Atlantic. Well, almost never. On March 27,2004, for the first time in recorded history a hurricane hit the coast of Brazil. Tropical cyclones have hit the Brazilian coast twice before, but "Catarina" (so named for the Brazilian state of Santa Catarina, which was hit hardest) packed 147 km/hour (90 mph) winds-making it a true hurricane. This storm did not develop in exactly the same manner as do most of those in the North Atlantic. lt appears to have been a hybrid between a tropical system and a midlatitude cyclone, having initially formed along a cold front in the South Atlantic. Considerable damage occurred along the coastal region, but effective warnings to the public minimized the loss of life.
FIGURE 12*12 Tropical storms and hurricanes have a tendency to move north or northeast out of the tropics along the southeast coast of North America. Their paths are often
still bring heavy rains and flooding. In 1976 Hurricane Kathleen caused massive flooding in the desert of southem California that wiped out part of Lrterstate Highway 8.
erratic, as seen in these examples.
EFFECT OF LANDFALL After making landfall, a tropical storm may die out
from eastem Mexico, northward to Florida and the rest of
the southeastem United States.
Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes can travel

great distances along the North American east coast, but they usually weaken considerably as they approach the northeastem United States and the Maritime Provinces of Canada. These storms usually lack the strong winds that characterize hurricanes in the low latitudes but can still bring intense rainfall and flooding. On rare occasions, the
completely within a few days. Even as the storm weakens, though, it can still import huge amounts of water vapor and bring very heavy rainfall hundreds of kilometers inland. This is especially true when the remnant of a hurricane moving poleward joins with a midlatitude cyclone moving eastward. Exactly this happened in 1969 when one of North America's most notorious hurricanes, Camille, moved northward from the coast of
storms can maintain their strong winds even as they move considerable distances from the subtropics. For example, an intense September 1938 hurricane brought 200 km/hr (120 mph) winds to Long Island, New York, as it moved toward New England. Its estimated 600 fatalities made it the fourth deadliest of all U.S. hurricanes. More recently, i. September 1985, Hurricane Gloria brought considerable wind and flood damage to Long
Island and Connecticut. Although hurricanes and tropical storms can move into the northeastern United States, along the West Coast they do not migrate nearly as far north without weakening to tropical depressions. The reason for this is the difference in water temperatures along the two coasts. The Pacific Coast is dominated by upwelling and the cold Califomia current, while the warm Gulf Stream flowing along the East Coast provides a greater supply of latent heat. Sometimes, storms off the coast of Mexico move to the northeast across Baja California and into southern Califomia. These storms lose their supply of latent heat and lose their intensity as they move irand, but they can
Mississippi (Figure 72-74). After its high winds and tidal flooding brought extreme damage to the Gulf Coast, the storm moved northeastward toward the western slopes of the Appalachians. There, orographic uplift coupled with low pressure and high water vapor content of the remnant hurricane could easily have produced serious flooding. But to make matters worse/ an eastward-moving cold front reached the mountains at the same time as the former hurricane. The combination of moist ai1, low pressure, an approaching front, and the
orographic effect set the stage for intense rains and flash flooding that killed more than 150 persons.
Hurricane Destruction and Fatalities

Hurricanes can bring death and devastation in several ways, through any combination of strong winds, heavy rain, hurricane-spawned tornadoes, and the elevation
of coastal waters combined with heavy surf.
384
CI.IAPTER 12
,,-'i=i:.i-.....
other major hurricanes that made landfall; in addition, it proved to be the most active
The period between 1995 and 2005 was marked by an unusually high number of
to strike the United States, bringing ar

estimated $14 billion in damages along
Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes,

with many making landfall. Of the ten sea-
tropical storm-hurricane season
in
sons during this time span, all but two had at least eight hurricanes-well above the annual average of 5.9. But 2OO4 and
American history with 27 named storms (breaking a record set in 1933). Here we present a brief review of four hurricanes
with 10 fatalities that were direcfly attributable to the storm.
Charley developed
as a
tropica
2005 were particularly noteworthy. The year 2004 was the costliest hurricane
season to hit the United States up to that time, bringing $42 billion in losses. Hurricanes damaged one-fifth of all the homes in Florida and killed 1 17 people that year. lncredibly, that devastation was dwarfed by the hurricane season that hit the following year. The year 2005 produced one of the greatest natural disasters in U.S.
from 2004 and Hurricanes Rita
and Wilma in 2005 (Figures 1 and 2). Given its
depression noftheast of Venezuela oi August 9. lt moved steadily to the westAugust
enormous death toll and destruction, we discuss Hurricane Katrina separately later
in this chapter.
northwest as it intensified, and b'. 1 1 it achieved hurricane status
with its eye a mere 65 km (40 mi) south-
Hurricane Charley, August 9-14,2OO4

Hurricane Charley was the strongest hurricane to hit the United States since Hurricane Andrew 12 years earlier. At the time it was also the second costliest hurricane
west of Jamaica. Charley's path begar to turn gradually toward the right, anc
the hurricane approached western Cuba 24 hours later, with winds in excess c. 190 km/hr (120 mph), making it a Category 3 hurricane. The storm weakenec as it passed over the island but still led tc four deaths in Cuba and one in Jamaica
history-Hurricane Katrina-and several
A FIGURE I
The paths of four 2004 hurricanes.
Fatalities 385
After exiting northwest Cuba, the

hurricane reintensified and continued arcing to its right. lt made landfall on the Gulf Coast of the Florida peninsula at
3:45 p.u. on August 13, just after achieving wind speeds of 231 km/hr (1 43 mph)-a Category 4 hurricane.
in the central North Atlantic Ocean at about I2" N latitude. Tropical Storm Frances moved west-northwestward and intensified to a hurricane the next
day. The hurricane went through several
tropical cyclone to hit the United States-and the second major disaster
in less than a month.
Frances ranked it as the fourth costliest
cycles of intensification and weakening. It achieved maximum wind speeds esti-
The storm moved northeastward across the state and across the eastern Florida shoreline at about 1l:30 p.v. on August '14. lt made a second landfall over South Carolina and entered North Carolina as
mated
at 231 km/hr (144 mph) on
August 29, making it the second Category 4 hurricane that month. Frances hit
eastern Florida shortly after midnight on September 5 as a Category 2 hurricane.
Hurricane Ivan, September Y24,2OO4 While Hurricane Frances was about 2 days away from landfall over eastern
Florida, Tropical Storm lvan formed in the east-central North Atlantic at about 10' N. Over the next 3 weeks, lvan became a truly remarkable system for both its intensity-achieving Category 5 status on three separate occasions-as
weakenng tropical storm. Charley then became embedded within a passing midlatitude cyclone. Relatively little damage was done by Charley's storm surge, which peaked at
Gradual weakening occurred
as
it
the nine tornadoes the hurricane

spawned.
about .28 m (4.2 ft); most of the damage was incurred by strong winds and
1
Hurricane Frances, August 2S-9eptember 8, 2004

Eleven days after the dissipation of Hur-
ricane Charley, a new system emerged
passed northwestward over Florida (hitting a part of central Flodda that had already been severely damaged by Hurricane Charley), and Frances entered the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm. After turning northward, it made its second landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida and continued northward. Even after losing tropical storm status, Frances's remnants brought strong winds and rain to much of the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada. The estimated $9 billion in damages incurred by
well as for its highly unusual path. lvan
was the southernmost hurricane on record in the Atlantic. The island of Grenada was the first land area to be
the southern portion of the island
severely hit by lvan. Category 3 winds hit on September 7, destroying 14,000 homes and killing 39 people. On September 10, lvan passed south of Jamaica as a Cate-
gory
winds occurred
hurricane. Though its strongest to the south of the
,r"
go' ";
tji
/
,l', 't-\\."
1
)
60
55'
N
35 30 25
.o
15
Tropical storm stage Hurricane stage Tropical Depression
+(r
',
I;1
!1
\_. * ,t *i .-J.-
L,,\, _+,
o
a
rr
{.'.}
-Yr
Position at 4:00 PM. E.S.T. Position at 4:00

A.N4.
E.S.T.
i(
-t; q----r ,-z f,
Oci. 25
Sept.
24 Sept. 22 25
WILMA
24 23 18
20. Ja
Sept.
b':
)*--t. t \ - "\\,,.'rl"
i
\
NAra\
'=!{r-i. ,-
===,
TA
6
r-i' .{
t)
-a.--,F*]
J/.-.
0 0
ffi
500 500
'1,000 Mles
1,000 Kilometers
FTGURE
The paths of Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma in 2005.
386 CHAPTER 12
island, the hurricane still destroyed b600 homes and damaged 47,OOO others and killed 17 people. Grand Cayman lsland was next, with near-Category 5 winds damaging or destroying 95 percent of the island's homes.
Hurricane Jeanne, September 1+28,2OO4

By far the deadliest of the 2004 Atlantic hurricanes was Jeanne, which killed more than 3000 people. Most of its fatalities were associated with flooding in the Caribbean, especially in Haiti, as high rainfall rates coupled with slow storm movement led to very large precipitation totals. Although Puerlo Rico had fewer fatalities than did Haiti, it suffered recordbreaking floods. Jeanne moved northward after it hit Hispaniola, undertook a clockwise loop in the Atlantic, and headed almost directly toward Florida. Jeanne had Category 3 wind speeds just before landfall, with a
recorded history that two such powerful storms had ever occurred in the Gulf in the same season (Hurricane Wilma also
achieved Category
status in
the
lvan then headed for the
United
States and made landfall on September 16 near Gulf Shores, Alabama, as a Category 3 hurricane. The combination of a 3 to 5 m (10 to 15 ft) storm surge, heavy rain, strong winds, and numerous tornadoes hit the Alabama-Florida coastline especially hard. The system weakened as it moved northward and northeastward, but it was still bringing heavy rain-
Caribbean Sea that year, but it lost Category 5 intensity before movlng into the Gulf). At its worst, Rita was a monster storm. lts maximum wind speeds toppec out at 280 km/hr (175 mph), hurricaneforce winds extended
1
10 km (70 mi) away
from the center, and tropical storm-force winds reached out to 295 km (185 mi).
897 mb was the third lowest

occurred as
Its minimum sea level air pressure oi

ever
falls as far north as New Hampshire

2 days later.
observed in the Atlantic Ocean. Hurricane Rita's first brush with lano
Most storms would have done
all
maximum gust
of
206 whr (128 mph)
their damage by this point, but this was no ordinary storm. Remnants of the former hurricane began to move southward along the Atlantic coast, reaching the
observed at Fort Pierce lnlet. Hurricaneforce winds extended well inland, including a part of central Florida that had already taken direct hits from Hurricanes
passed south of the Florida Keys on September 20 as a Category 2 hurricane. Though Rita's path
it
Florida shoreline on
the morning
of
September 21 . Thundershowers occurred
over southern Florida as the system moved westward across the peninsula.
Then after returning to the Gulf of Mexico, the system redeveloped into a tropical storm on September 22, lvan then moved to the northwest and made landfall once again as a tropical depression over soulheastern Louisiana, where it rapidly died out. lvan was responsible for 92 deaths-
Frances and lvan. North of Tampa, Jeanne weakened to a tropical storm and continued northward, eventually bringing heavy rains to Georgia, the Carolinas, and the Delmarva Peninsula as a tropical
depression. Estimated damages in the
As it moved westward, the
it still did considerable damage to the Keys, downing trees anc creating a 1.5 m (5 ft) storm surge that topped U.S. Highway I and causec some flooding to business and homes.
worst punch,
hurricane
took it too far to the south to deliver its
United States are believed

approached $7 billlon.
to
have
rapidly intensified and reached Category 5 status on the afternoon of September 21. With the public very much aware of
the devastation wrought by
Hurricane
25 of them in the United States. U.S. damages were estimated at well over $14 billion-about the same as Hurricane Charley had brought a month and
a half earlier.
Hurricane Rita, September 1*25,2OO5 Following the devastation of Hurricane Katrina (see Box 2-3, Special lnterest:
7
Katrina, citizens along much of the Gui. Coast took the call for evacuation ver-, seriously, causing massive traffic problems in east Texas as an estimatec 3 million people headed inland.
Hurricane Katrina) only a few weeks earlier, Hurricane Rita became the second Category 5 hurricane to develop in the Gulf of Mexico that year-the first time in
.See this book's CD for movies showing the

progression of Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, anc
Wilma.
WIND
By definition, hurricane winds exceed 120
HEAVY RAIN
km/hr
(75
mph),
and many are much faster. It is not surprising, then, that hurricane-force winds can cause extensive damage and even destroy well-built homes. An example of this happened on August 24, 1992, when Hurricane
Hurricanes produce staggeringly intense rainfall, with

rates on the order of meters per day found beneath the eye wall. The rate for a location that remains stationarrbeneath a passing storm is smaller, but still huge-on
southern Florida. It approached southern Florida almost directly from the east and cut westward across the state, with its eye passing about 40 km (25 mi) south of Miami Beach. There was relatively little damage due to coastal flooding or heavy rainfall, but winds completely leveled the town of Homestead, killed 24 people, and left 180,000 homeless in the state before crossing into the Gulf of
Mexico.
Andrew devastated much
of
the order of 25 crrt/day (10 in./day).
Heavy rain made Hurricane Mitch the deadliest

hurricane to hit the Westem Hemisphere in the last 200 years, killing thousands of people in Central America in October 1998 (some effects of Mitch were described at the beginning of Chapter 3). Mitch hit Central America from the east. Although Mitch's winds weakened substantially, the remnant system brought heavy rainfall across the region as it tracked northward toward the
GulJ of Mexico. Intense rains lasted for several days, and
Fatalties 387
September 23. lt delivered hurricane'crce winds to areas as far inland as 24O <m (1 50 m) and tropical storm-force .vinds as far north as southern Arkansas. Storm surges as high as 4.6 m (15 ft),
:f
Rita struck the Texas coast just west Louisiana as a Category 3 storm on
sometime within the next 5 days. This
forecast understated the
magnitude
and rapidity of what was to haPPen. Wilma remained a tropical storm until the next morning. At 11 n.u. EDT Tuesday, October 18, the troPical storm
became Hurricane Wilma-the 12th of the season-as a Category t hurricane with sustained wnds of 12O km/hr (75 mph). By 5 n.u. EDT WednesdaY, the hurricane packed sustained winds
western Gulf Coast on Monday morning, October 24,2005, as a Category 3 hurricane. Storm surges up to 2.75 m (9 ft) caused extensive flooding, especially in
Key West. Widespread wind damage also occurred across much of the Gulf
Coast. The hurrcane moved very rapidly inland toward the Northeast. Away from the Gulf Coast, high winds brought the most severe damage, especially on the right hand side of the hurricane. ln fact, the rapid movement of the storm contributed to the surprisingly high wind speeds encountered over much of southern Florida. The Miami and Ft. Lauderdale
areas experienced considerable damage,
:rough smaller than originally
feared,
:aused very serious flooding and the :otal destruction or major damage of several communities. ln addition, a2.4 m
3 ft) storm surge in New Orleans 'eopened several breaches in the levees :rat had been temporarily repaired folowing Hurricane Katrina. Overall damage from Hurricane Rita was very large
of 280 km/hr (175 mph)-comPleting an explosive transition from tropical storm to Category 5 hurricane n less Ihan 24 hours! Hurricane reconnaissance aircraft observed a sea level air pressure of 884 mb-the lowest ever observed in the Atlantic. Wilma then headed for the Yucatan Peninsula. lt made a direct hit on Cozumel lsland, southeast of the mainland, on Friday morning, October 21, and continued northwestward toward the Cancun area. The storm remained over the area through much of Friday
and Saturday before turning into the Gulf of Mexico and heading toward the Florida coast. An estimated 22,000 tourists and many more residents of the resort area had to find shelter from the 200 km/hr (125 mph) winds and heavY downpours. Meanwhile, 700,000 people had been evacuated from the west side
cut far short of that brought about by -'lurricane Katrina. lnitial reports indi:ated a total loss of life of about 1 'l 9 ceople. Only 6 of the deaths appear to
rave resulted directly from the hurricane; :ne rest were indirectly related, such as :nose caused by a fire that engulfed a
including the shattering of windows in large buildings and the downing of large trees. Roads were mpassible soon after the storm, millions of people lost electric
power for extended time periods, and residents were advised to boil their tap water before drinking it. Earliest reports
identified ten fatalites.
cus full of elderly patients evacuating

-louston.
Hurricane Wilma then proceeded
Hurricane Wilma, October 17-25,2OOs
northward
in the western
Atlantic.
Though its strong winds did not hit

coastal areas, it fed additional moisture into a nor'easter, hitting Canada and the
just about any other year, Hurricane
,Vilma would have been
'emarkable
)epresson 24 intensified to Tropical Storm Wilma in the early morning of './onday, October 17, about 280 km
of
the
most
northeastern United States.
This
hurricanes.
Tropical
increased the amount of snow and rainfall for an area that had already experienced extreme precipitation amounts for
of Cuba in
anticipation
of the
heavy
the month. Across the United
States,
I75 mi) southeast of Grand Cayman sland in the Caribbean Sea. Though sustaned wind speeds were a mere
55 km/hr (40 mph), the National Hurricane lenter had already predicted that the siorm would become a major hurricane
flooding that hit that portion of the island. At least 19 people were killed n the Caribbean area by the hurricane. Wilma moved rapidly across the Gulf of Mexico as it headed toward the southwestern coast of Florida. lt hit the
total insured damages caused by Wilma were estimated to be between $6 billon and S10 billion. On Tuesday, October 26, the National Hurricane Center quit tracking the storm as it moved safely away from North America.
parts of Honduras and Nicaragua received estimated precipitation totals of 85 cm (35 in.), causing extensive tlooding and mudslides in this mountainous region. Irt2002 Tiopical Storm Allison demonstrated that a
are surrounded by relatively weak winds. It appears that
lropical storm need not attain hurricane status to hecome a major disaster. Allison hit the south Txas coast on ]une 5 and hovered over the area for nearly a rreek. Its heavy rainfall (as much as 96 cm, or 40 in.) caused major flooding across Texas and Louisiana, killing 24 people and flooding more than 46,000 homes
and businesses.
slowing of the wind by friction at landfall contributes to tomado formation. Flurricane-spawned tomadoes tend to have shorter lifespans than tomadoes in the central United States.
STORM SURGES
In addition to the threat of heavy rain, strong winds, and tomadoes, coastal regions are vulnerable to a special problem called the storm surge, a rise in water level induced by the hurricane. Two processes create a storm surge, the major one being the piling up of water as heavy winds drag surface waters forward. Strong winds blowing toward a coast force surface waters landward and thereby elevate sea level, while also bringing hear,y surf. The low atmospheric pressure in a hurricane also
TORNADOES
\lany hurricanes
also contain clusters of tomadoes, most often in the right-forward quadrant (Figure 12-15). They r,rsually occur far enough away from the center that they
388 CHAPTER
12
10
August
-J
urery
| ! +
| More lit<ety Most tiretV Prevailing tracks
^0
(a)
September
l=l ! ->
fl
t-itety More likel
lrost tiketv
Prevailing tracks
500
500
1000 Miles
o
(b)
,t'
roo
/'
soulH
^}lEBlCA
i---
ffi
1000 Kilometere
Eoator
40
30
10
..".-r'
-L ii"} -, il ;'.> -
tI
October
Likely More likely Most likely Prevailing tracks
T
t
" i
1
^Fntca
0 0
(c)
500
500
1000 Mil6s
1000 KilomeleB Equato,

10
o'o
A FIGURE 12-,I3 The predominant paths of Atlantic hurricanes in August (a), September (b), and October (c).
Fatalities 389
SURFACE WEATHEB MAP AT 7:00 A.M., E.S.T.
AUG.17,1969
(b)
SURFACE WEATHEB AI7:00 A.M.. E.S.T
Al7i00 A.M.,
E.S.T
4UG.19,1969
AUG. 20, '1969
,
SI]RFACE WEATHER MAP AT 7:oO A.M., E.S.L AUG. 21, 1969
\\
l . 0- 11-.--gE.* - , , t--G--?**-,*
"+. i
(e)
FIGUBE 12-14 The movement of Hurricane Camille.
contributes to the storm surge, in the same way that the height of a column of mercury in a barometer responds to variations in atmospheric pressure. For every millibar the pressure decreases, the water level rises 1 cm (0.4 in.)' For most hurricanes along a coastal zone, the storm surge elevates the water level only a meter or two. But in extreme circumstances, storm surges can increase the water level by as much as7 m (23 ft), as was the case for Hurricane Camille along the coast of Mississippi in 1969.
DID YOU KNOW?

Hurricane damage is not all water and wind. For example, in Navarre Beach, Florida, Hurricane Katrina left behind meters of sand along a 2O-mile (12 km) stretch of road (Figure 12-16). Months of work were needed to clear these storm-produced drifts.
390 CHAPTER 12
> FIGURE 12-15 Tornadoes most often form in the right-forward quadrant of hurricanes (based on the direction in which the storm is moving). The figure is based on data from 373 hurricaneembedded tornadoes between 1948 and 1972 in the Northern Hemisphere. Each dot represents a tornado. The circled X indicates the mean position of tornadoes relative to the storm center.
Direction of
storm movemenl
0
aa atatat.
Storm surges along low-lying coastal plains can be extremely devastating where the rise in sea level brings waters far inland. Furthermore, the heavy waves generated by the strong winds pound away at structures,
with debds carried by the waves adding to the problem. In the case of Hurricane Camille, te storm completely destroyed the Richelieu Apartments along the Mississippi coast (Figure 12-17). Despite previous
warnings to evacuate, about a dozen residents decided to have a "hurricane patty," figuring that if the storm surge got too high they would just move up to the third floor of the building. Unfortunately for them, the storm
surge undermined the apartment foundation, and more than two dozen died when the building completely collapsed. Storm surges are most destructive when they coincide with high tides, especially over
> FIGURE '12-16 A stretch of road at Navarre Beach, Florida, cut off by blowing sand from Hurricane Katrina.
Hurricane Forecasts and
Advisories
391
(a)
(b)
A',
The Richelieu Apartments before (a) and after (b) the passage of Hurricane Camille in 1969.
bays and inlets that have an extreme range of height between high and low tide. Hurricane winds and storm surges are most intense on the right hand side of the storm relative to the direction it is moving. To understand why, imagine that a hvpothetical hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico is moving
Hurricane Forecasts and Advisories

Responsibility for tracking and predicting Atlantic and east Pacific hurricanes lies with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida. During hurricane season, this office of the National Weather Service obtains constantly updated surface reports and satellite data to
northward at 50 km/hr, with
100 km/hr-120 mph-winds (Figure 12-18). If
uniform eye wall having

this
hurricane makes landfall along the coast of Mississippi arrd Alabama, the winds to the east of the eye move at 150 km/hr (the sum of wind speed and storm speed). \long the western part of the eye wall, the winds are .rnly 150 km/hr (200 km/hr minus 50 km/hr). The right hand side of the storm will also have a greater storm surge because the winds push the water onshore rather
:han offshore.
determine current storm conditions. Sophisticated

numerical models on a suPercomputer predict the formation, growth, and movement of tropical storms and hurricanes. When active hurricanes approach land,
Though storm surges Present the greatest poten:ial for catastrophic coastal destruction and have ;laimed thousands of American lives over the last few :enturies, they do not account for the majority of .\merican hurricane fatalities. A study published by a :esearcher at the National Hurricane Center revealed :lrat between7970 and2002, more than half the fatali:ies from tropical storms and hurricanes in North .\merica resulted not from storm surges, but rather :rom freshwater flooding from heavy rain. Only about .rne-quarter of the fatalities associated with tropical storms and hurricanes (or their remnants) occurred in .rrastal counties. For several decades prior to 2005 and ilurricane Katrina, there had been a decrease in the -i-rcidence of storm surge fatalities. (See Box 12-3, Spe-:.rl Interest: HtLrricttne Kstrina, for more information on :l-ris historic event.) The reduction in deaths associated '.rith storm surges is partially the result of an episodic jecrease in the number of strong hurricanes hitting :rrprLrlated coastal regions during the 3O-year period, ,:.lt-rng with a better ability to predict the movement of :.r-rrricanes and improved evacuation procedures. (We jiscr-rss trends and cycles in hurricar-re activity later in
::ris chapter.)
specially equipped aircraft fly into the storms and piovide reconnaissance data from airborne radar and dropsondes, packages containing temperature/ pressure/ and moisture sensors and transmitters released from the plane into the storm. The NHC uses the standard computer models for conventional weather forecasting (discussed in Chapter 13), as well as others developed specifically for hurricanes. The latter fall into three categories: stntistical, dynancal, and lrybrid. Statistical models apply information on past hurricane tracks and use
DID YOU ](NOW?

Meteorologists once believed that seeding clouds with silver iodide (see Chapter 7) could be an effective way to reduce hurricane strength' The idea was to seed parts of the cloud outside the eye wall. lf the seeding successfully led to enhanced convection outside the eye wall, the new zone of heavy activity could compete with and thereby weaken the strength of the eye wall. Seeding was undertaken sporadically between 1962 and 1983 on 8 days in four different hurricanes. Although the results once appeared promlsing, the method ultimately proved unviable.
392
CI.IAPTER
12
'
. 1; P.:.:r.' :=11-r' ,ixjillr5;=-::-. -.

.
At the end of August 2005 we witnessed one of the major natural catastrophes in American history: Hurricane Katrina. Katrina was the first of three Category 5 hurricanes to form in the Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean in 2005, bringing with it substantial flooding in southern Florida, the inundation of New Orleans, and a
devastating storm surge
in
Gulf Coast the following afternoon, to turn toward the nofthwest and follow a track somewhere in the eastern Gulf along the west coast of Florida. What is not revealed by Figure 1b is that the forecast models showed highly differing forecasts. Several suggested the path similar to the official NHC forecast, but three others indicated a southwestward movement across southern Florida. The storm did indeed move to the southwest, reaching the western
". . . like adding high octane fuel to
the
fire." All the forecast models predictec further intensification of Katrina, one c'
them calculating that wind speeds woulc
top out at more lhan 243 km/hr (1 5'
coastal
Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Two months later, the storm's death toll was complete: More than 1300 people had perished in the United States. Damage estimates exceed $100 billion. ln this section we present a chronology of what happened meteorologically. ln a
book such as this, we cannot even begin to analyze comprehensively the human impact of the disaster.
mph)-a strong Category 4. Also noteworthy was the fact that all the compute' models were giving the same guidance ir terms of the storm's path, creating little doubt of what was to come.
Saturday, August 27, On Gourse
2OO5=
Florida coast seven hours after initial landfall. The hurricane moved rapidly across the state, which reduced the amount of weakening normally undertaken as a hurricane passes over land. So even though Katrina traveled across southern Florida mainly as a tropical storm, it was able to reintensify into a
hurricane when it reached the Gulf.
By Saturday night (Figure 1e)the prev-
ous day's forecasts had proven

NHC issued
.
ver'.
ir-
accurate, and there was little change
the expected path of the storm. The
hurricane warning tha:
included some of the following text:

POTU\]TIALLY CATASTROPHIC
HURRICANE KATRINA MENACING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
Wednesday, Au g ust 24, 2OO5: TropicalStorm East of South Florida

At 11 nv. EDl Tropical Storm Katrina was localed to the east of south Florida (Figure
1
Katrina did considerable damage to

Florida directly and indirectly due to heavy rain that exceeded 26 cm (16 in.) in places. The heavy rainfall led to major flooding and
HURRICANE WARNING
IS IN
EFFECT
a shows the location of the storm, as well
as the official NHC predictions for future movements and status). Hurricane warn-
ings had recently been issued for the southeast Florida coastline, with anticipated landfall near Miami. The storm was forecast to be a Category t hurricane by 8
p.ur,
trees toppled by the combination of saturated soils and strong winds. Six people died in Florida from Katrina, which also caused S100 million in damages and $423 million in agricultural losses. But there was much, much more to follow
FOR THE NORTTI CEVIR.AL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIAXTA EASTWAF: TO THE ALABAMA/FLORfDA BOFDER INCLUDING T'HE CITY OF NE{^T ORLEANS AND T,AKE PONTCTARTR.LIN.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
175 MPH
the following day very near the shore-
Friday, August 26,2OO5= !n the Eastern Gulf of Mexico

Shortly after midnight, Katrina entered
KATRINA
IS A
I{INDS ARE NEAR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. POTM{T]ALLY CATA_
line. Though the cone depicted a fairly

extensive range of possible positions, the
forecast models the center used were in close agreement, and the storm moved
much as predicted over the short term.
the Gulf of Mexico. By dawn it
had
STROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE C]. THE SAFFTR_SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRM.TGTH ARE LIKE:: DURING THE NEXT 24 HOIJRS. HI.'RRICANE FORCE W]NDS EXTEND OL]II_
WARD UP
become clear to forecasters that the hur-
Thu rsday,
August 25, 2OO5: Hurricane Katrina Landfall
ricane had the potential to become a huge danger to parts of the Gulf Coast. Early morning forecasts called for the storm to initially move to the west and
then begin to arc northwestward toward the coast anywhere from the Florida pan-
TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CEN_
AND TROPICAL STORM FORC: WINDS EXTM{D OI]IIWARD UP TO 205
TB.
MILES.
COASTAT- STORM SURGE FLOODING OF
1:
At 5 p.u. EDT on August 25 (Figure 1b), Katrina had developed into a hurricane and was near landfall at the position forecast the night before (though it had
moved somewhat faster than expected). Landfall occurred at about 6:30 cw. near the Broward/Miami-Dade County state line (Figure 2). At this point, forecasters officially called for the cyclone to move directly westward and, upon entering the
handle to extreme eastern Louisiana (Figure 1c). But by late evening, the system had moved farther to the southwest than anticipated, and by 11 e.v. a very
different track was predicted-one that would put Katrina on a collision course
TO
22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVE-.' LOCAILY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET
ALONG WITH I,ARGE AND DANGEROUS BAI_ TERING WAIBS CAN BE EXPECTE:
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF hJHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SIGNIFICAN: STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR
ELSEI^]HERE AIONG THE CEMIR.AL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.
with New Orleans and the
Mississippi coast (Figure 1d). The hurricane was now
set to pass over a region of very warm

Gulf waters, which the NHC described as
The most vulnerable city in the Unitec
States, New Orleans, Louisiana, was
L
Becent (and Future?) Trends in Hurricane
Actrvlty 393
n
SC
lurricane Katrina \uoust 25. 2005

, Ptr, EDT Thursday {WS TPClllational Hurlcane center
Curenl Center Location26o

Sustaned
ll
73.0w
wlnd
50 mph
C!trent MovementWat 3 inPh O C!rent Cenrer Locatlon a Forecast center Posillons H Suslalnedehrd,T3mph S Suslained vlnd 39 73 mDh f--\ Pordiliat Day r 3 lracI arer' r
Hurricane Waffril9 Tropical Stoiln warning TroDlcal Slonn Watch
r1
lurrenl Center Localion

GA
Jil
sustained
wind
26.1 75 mph
/9.9 W
t'
^__re.a
{.'l
:urcnt Movemef tvJ at 6 rnph O cutrcrt cenrer Local on a Forecast Centtr Posilioils H Suslahed v/ind , 73 inPh S Sustailred !/ind 3s.7J rn!h Porenrlal Ddy r 3 lra(hArec N Huricane Warnlng lropical Slonn lvarnirq rrDlcal Sloiln Walch -
\' \,,
5
,*)
Thu
,, r1 ;'"'"'
(S)
(b)
Auoust 25. 2005 5 AL, EDT Friday
rJV/S IPC/National
rruo dt Jo oolr
@ ' ***\ \ 250 - r'5 5oo atr ii5 \ ( s,ntLo illlos ) \{'*r A,Drvr Drsrin scdt6 " /u 8oh _ os ,)
{#' ,\7
,.1
11 PM EDT Fflday Cutreni Cnter t ocatloil 24.6 ll Sustai.ed Wind 105 inph
83.6 W
l!urricane Center
",:-4*:k., .
\lr
25.3 l{ 3l.s W Sustahed wind 75 inph Cur.enl Movem.nlw at 5 mpl O curent Cenler Location O Forecasr Cenler Positions H Susriled qird ' /! rnph ^ \ Porerril Day r I lrach ard L T.opl.al Sioiin Wanritg r
Cuiient Center Localion
Mu
.\
l
rent
6) a ^_\ f
-
t/ovcm.nrWSVr' al 3 rnDh cutrenr cenrer Locarion Forecasl cnler Pos lions H sus!. red viil,l 73 rnPlr Porenriol Ddy r I Tr(k ^rca lropical Stonn
Iropi.al slonn watch
:ij1-;J'-<
FfM
Mon
t 28,2005
Auousi 27. 2005
CDT Sunday
a1!arioilal llnrricaf
E
to M cDT saturday
NWS TPC/l{ational
Cntei
Hrrlcaile Cetrter
cnrent
Center I ocalion 25 o N 86.2 W Suslaild Vr'hd I l5 mDh Movement Vr'NW at 7 inph O currenr Cenler Location O rorecasl Csnter Positiotrs H Sustained v/hd > /3 mph s srsrained \vlnd 39 73 hh Potential Day 1 3 rrack area N Hurlcane Vr'anrhg Hunlcaile Walch lropical Ston. Wanrinq r
Cenler Localln 27.6 fl 6s.4 w Ssratrrcn Wnd 160 rnpl [lovenren llflw al ]o inph ) curenr cenEr Locat on a Forecast CeDter Posillons H Sslained \{hd ' 73 mDh S Sslanredeiild3s 73 mph lJ ssratrred vird . Jg rtruh Poknrial Dy r r lccl arr; N Hurricane wanlDg !uril.anp Watch
=
,
(r)
The position and forecasted movement of Hurricane Katrina at various times. The area in white shows the ..-ge of possible locations for the hurricane center al the forecast times shown.
394 C*{AF}T'EF-i
> F,Gt RE 2 Radar image of Hurricane Katrina as it approached Miami. This is shown as a movie on this
book's CD.
> Ff,S{JRE S Radar image of Hurricane Katrina as it approached the Louisiana coast. This is shown as a movie on this book's CD.
BAtr
REFLECTIVIIY
KLIX. NEW ORLEAN' LA 08/291206 09127:08 GMI LAT:30/20/13N LoN: 891a9/30 w ELEV: I38.OFT
rcDEivcPrA/ l2l
EtflANGLE|0.s0c
ux:5t d&
RAKE2{ANM
about to be hit by a catastrophic storm. Bounded by Lake Pontchartrain to the north and surrounded by the winding Mississippi River, the city-much of which is below sea level-had long been known to
be extremely vulnerable. The levees protecting much of the city were believed to be able to withstand a direct hit from a Category 3 hurricane, but they had never been seriously tested, as they would be
soon. Meanwhile, coastal Mississippi ar_ Alabama were lined up on the right han_ side of an enormously powerful hurricar= track.
those tracks as predictors for current storms. Dynamical models take information on current atmospheric and sea surface conditions and apply the governing laws of physics to current data. Hybrid models combine elements of statistical and dynamical models. The models repeatedly forecast the movement and internal changes of hurricanes for short time increments and then print information on projected storm positions, air
pressure, and wind at 6-hour intervals. Not surprisingly, model forecasts become less accurate as leari time increases and are unreliable for more than abor,r:
72 hours.
Hurricane forecasting requires a
tremendous
amount of data and places a great demand on compute: hardware. For both reasons, the NHC has recently undergone substantial modernization. The National Oceanic an,-
Hurricane Forecasts and Advisories
395
Sunday, August 28: Landfall
lmminent
By late Sunday night the hurricane was just offshore (Figure 1f). Those who had set out to evacuate were long gone. Those unable to leave were directed to shelters or hunkered down to take their chances at home. That morning, winds had easily exceeded the threshold for a Category 5 hurricane, with sustaned winds of 282 km/hr (175 mph). The hurricane had become as intense as Hurricane Camille, which devastated coastal Mississippi in 1969, and was even larger rFigure 3). Katrina's minimum air pressure of 902 mb was the fourth lowest ever observed for an Atlantic storm. Television news networks that had been
following the storm nonstop relayed warnings from the NHC: There was
absolutely
no doubt that bad
things
'ryere in store for the Gulf Coast.
Monday, August 29: Landfall lurricane Katrina made landfall
early
Monday morning. Coastal Louisiana was oattered first as a huge storm surge over-
look the area. Though the storm had
to be a strong Cate4, everybody knew that a historic Eory

,veakened enough
Jisaster was occurring. The eye tracked

.r:st to the northeast of New Orleans, put- ng the cily on the less-threatening "left side" of the storm. This initially gave the 'alse mpression that the city had nar'cwly escaped a disaster. This, of course,
iijt{;,,i}-l*
,i
Downtown New Orleans under water. Farther inland, wind destroyed all of or most of many communities. Figure 2 in Box 12-2 plots the entire track of Hurricane Katrina, and this book CD includes a movie compiled from satellite images that shows the entire movement of Katrina from the time it approached Florida to landfall in Lousiana and Mississippi. An enormous amount of information is also available on the Web. Check out the Web sites at the back of this chapter for links to valuable resources.
oroved entirely incorrect. As New Orleans
,,,as subiected
to wind speeds on the

Lake
)ontchartrain waters rose along the lev-
:rder of 160 km/hr (100 mph),
:es, which were unable to hold them cack. Eighty percent of the city came
-nderwater (Figure 4). For several weeks after the disaster,
.ne U.S. Army Corps of Engineers argued
that the levees were overtopped in places and that turbulent floodwaters undermined the base of the concrete walls atop the levees. Later assessments (still subject to further analysis at the time this book was going to press) suggested that this may have occurred in some locations, but in other places the walls gave way without having been overtopped by the storm surge. ln some areas of coastal Mississippi, the flood surge wreaked total devastation.
.ltnrospheric Administration (NOAA) has deployed new geostationary satellites (meaning they remain over fixed
The improvement in hurricane forecasting in

recent years has been substantial. In 1965 the average error in the 24-hour forecast position of an Atlantic hur-
Irrcations on Earth), GOES 10 and 72, to provide improved data acquisition. NOAA has also purchased a new jet airplane that can fly higher into a hurricane than its older propeller airplanes. Furthermore, an improved slrpercomputer can run increasingly complex models
-'rith increased accuracy.
ricane was about 250 km (155 mi). By the end of the twentieth century, that figure had been cut to about 160 km (100 mi). As you would expect, there is less accuracy for the 48-hour forecasts, with an average error of 260 km (160 mi). Still, the movement of hurri-
396 CHAPTER 12
Louisiana
Wind on left hand side
Hurricane Net hurricane movement wind
of
Speed and direction of hurricane movement
Hurricane movement
Wind on right hand side of hurricane
I I
Net
wind
A FIGURE 12-18 The varying intensities of the wind on the left and right sides of hurricanes. The direction and speed of the wind components are signified by the direction and length of the arrows, respectively. A hypothetical hurricane moves northward at 50 km/hr (30 mph). Along the right hand side, the 200 km/hr (120 mph) winds are in the same direction as the movement of the storm, so there is a net wind speed of 250 km/hr (1 55 mph). On the left side, the internal winds blow opposite the direction of storm movement, so the net winds are southward at 150 km/hr (90 mph). Because their winds spiral toward the eye in a clockwise direction, Southern Hemisphere hurricanes have strongest net winds on the left side.
canes is particularly difficult to predict. (Longer-range forecasts are discusse d rn Box124, F orecasting: Seasonal
and Long-Term Hurricane
F
orecasts.)
terms of probabilities that a hurricane will make landfa-_ at given points. For example, a hurricane waming ma.. cover a coastline 500 km (300 mi) long, with a 25 percer:
HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS

When forecasters at the NHC predict that an approaching hurricane will reach land in more than 24 hours, they issue a hurricane watch. If it is expected to make landfall within 24hours, they issue a hurricane waming. Hurricane wamings do not guarantee that a particular storm will hit any particular locale. Rather, they are issued in
The erratic nature of hurricanes makes ther:notoriously difficult to predict. When predicting hu:ricane movements, forecasters must weigh the effecr. of issuing watches or warnings for hurricanes tha: never make landfall versus the consequences of fai-ing to issue a watch or warning for a storm that ult--
probability for a"hit" near the center of the waming are: and a 5 percent chance along the margins. Overall, tl-.. "hit rate" for hurricane warnings is about 20 percent. I: other words, there is a one in five chance of the hurricar.. making landfall somewhere in the waming area.
Recent (and Future?) Trends in Hurricane
Activity
397
DID YOU KNOW?

Between 1992 and 2001 the average forecast error for the 24 hr hurricane landfall position was 149 km (92 mi). lf you live near a threatened coastal zone, you must keep in mind that the endangered area extends far beyond the point of landfall. Hurricaneforce winds can occur for distances well exceeding 160 km (100 mi) from the eye in any direction. So even if the point of expected landfall is far away or if the eye of the storm is still offshore, you may be subject to extremely hazardous hurricane conditions.
level, the majority of these extreme hurricanes have made landfall at some point in their lifetimes, often with catestrophic consequences. The great Galveston hurricane of 1900 that killed 6000 persons (see Box 12-5, Special lnterest: The Galaeston Hurricane of 1.900) is believed to
have been a Category 4 hurricane. Table 12-3 lists all the
Category 4 and 5 Atlantic-Gulf of Mexico{aribbean

hurricanes between 1900 and 2007, andBox12-6 Special
lnterest: Recent Deadly Cyclones describes some notewort cyclones elsewhere.
mately does hit. Obviously, the failure to warn people to evacuate may lead to unnecessary loss of life and
Recent (and Future?) Trends in Hurricane Activity

The exkemely destructive seasons of 2004 and 2005 greatly heightened the public's awareness of the danger hurricanes pose. Florida made repeated headlines as four hurricanes hit it in 2004, and the Gulf Coast witnessed destruction of historic proportions in 2005, compliments of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. These events stimulated public and media interest about whether the recent upsurge in Atlantic hurricane activity was related to natural periodic cycles, global warming, or both. One thing we know for certain is that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), a25- to O-year oscillation in water temperatures (Figure 12-79), has been a
major factor in the increase in Ailantic hurricane activityand especially in strong hurricanes. Figure 12-20 plots the
property. On the other hand, false warnings have serious ramifications, especially if they occur repeatedly. Repeated false warnings can make the public so complacent that people will eventually disregard n,arnings that prove accurate. Evacuations based on these advisories have immense economic costs for the general public, government agencies, and industry. Local residents and small businesses have their lives thoroughly disrupted as they board up windows and prepare to evacuate or take sheltet while large industries (such as petroleum mining and processing) incur costs measured in tens of millions of dollars from having to shut down and reopen their plants.
HURRICANE INTENSITY SCALE

In addition to alerting the public to the location and projected movement of hurricanes, meteorologists use a simple scale to categorize their intensity. The SaffirSimpson scale (Table 12-2) classifies hurricanes into five categories based on the highest current 1-minute average winds in the hurricane. Generally, higher-category hurricanes have lower central Pressures and larger storm surges. Though storm surges are usually the more destructive element of hurricanes upon landfall, the scale is based on wind speeds because storm surges are affected by nonmeteorological factors such as coastal configuration and the steepness of the offshore continental shelf. Extremely violent hurricanes are rare, with only 3 Category 5 and 16 Category 4 hurricanes having hit the mairand United States between 1900 and 2005. Of course, Category 4 and 5 hurricanes are far more deadty and devastating than lower-category hurricanes. The effects of Hurricane Camille (Category 5) in 1969 have already been described. Since theru 16 Category 5 hurricanes have occurred in the GulJ of Mexicq Caribbean Sea, or westem Atlantic, and ory three of those struck land at fulICategory 5 intensity: Andrew lri.1992, and Dean and Felix, both n 2007. But even though only a handful of Category 5 hurricanes made landfall at that maximum
annual number of Atlantic-named systems (tropical storms and hurricanes), hurricanes, and Categories 3 through 5 hurricanes from 1851 through 2007. The period between the early 1970s and mid-1990s was one of relatively low Atlantic sea surface temperatures and hurricane activity. In fact, the years 1991 through 1994 had less Atlantic hurricane activity than any other 4-year period on record (despite the Category 5 Hurricane Andrew in 1992). Then came an abrupt transition to a very active period beginning in 1995 that coincided with a shift in the AMO, and the 7995-99 period proved to be the most active S-year period on record (41 hurricanes)-at least until that record was surpassed in 2001-05 (44 hurricanes). Has global warming also influenced the increase in hurricane activity? Currently there is little, if any, evidence to indicate that the increase in Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes is due to a longer-term trend in sea surface temperatures. In fact, the increase in Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane activity has not been observed in the other ocean basins around the globe-despite the fact that worldwide tropical ocean temperatures have increased by about 0.5"C (1'F) between 7970 and2004. The situation might be different with regard to the effect on intense hurricanes of long-term sea surface warming. Research published in 2005 showed a near
398 CHAPTER
12
Scientists are curently developing techniques for predicting the number and intensi of hurricanes and tropical storms on a seasonal basis. The best-known forecasts are those put out by the research group at Colorado State University, headed by Professor William Gray (now semiretired). Previously issued in
showed that during El Niflo years, an average of 1.04 hurricanes hit the U.S. mainland, in contrast lo lhe 2.23 that hit during La Nifra years and the 1 .61 that hit in years that are neither El Nifro nor La Nifla years. As shown in Table 1, the group has had mixed success in recent years. Their predictions for 2003 were reasonably
Even beyond the accuracy issues, long-
range huricane forecasting has some

inherent problems. One of these involves the issues of where and when. For example, say an intense hurricane year is correctly forecast, as in 2005. There was nothing in that seasonal forecast to indrcate one of those hurricanes would neari,,
November, June, and August (and

since 2003, updated in September and October), the forecasts predict the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, intense hurricanes, and the number of days with each, that will occur each season in the western Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. The forecasts do not
good, except for the underestimation of
decimate forecast
mqor city, New
Orleans. a
the number of intense hurricane days. They also successfully predicted the
extremely active 2005 season, especially with regard to the number of intense
Louisiana. There is also
relatively inactive seasor could cause coastal residents to be underprepared. So even if only a single hurricane were forecast and that forecast turned ou: to be accurate, it would be useless at bes: and possibly counterproductive if in tha: year the lone hurricane made a direct hi on a major city. Morevoer, incorrect seasonal forecasts could diminsh the public s confldence in all forecasts, including shortterm ones that have a much greatedegree of precision and accuracy. The NOAA Climate Prediction Cente. (CPC) and the National Hurricane Cente. likewise jointly issue their own seasona forecasts each spring. These forecasts are available online (see the Web link at the end of the chapter) but come with specifrc statements emphasizing the uncertainties and shortcomings of such predictions.
of a
a possibility that
predict characteristics individual storms, such as date or landfall. The seasonal forecasts are based on a number of meteorological and oceanographic conditions around the globe,
including the presence or absence of El Nifro conditions, seasonal rainfall in western Africa, temperature, stratospheric and upper-tropospheric wind directions, and air pressure over the Caribbean Sea. The theoretical underpinnings that make these climatological conditions good hurricane predictors are supported by empirical observations. For example, a recent study
of
hurricanes and hurrican days. The 2004 and 2006 forecasts could not be considered successful, however. ln 2004 the
forecast team called for an above-average
hurricane year and was largely on target with regard to the number of tropical storms and hurricanes. But they badly underestimated the number of
tropical storm days, hurricane days, intense hurricanes and intense hurricane days. ln 2006 and 2007 they erred on the side of overprediction. ln
2006 they predicted 35 hurricane days; Only 20 occurred. ln 2OO7 they again forecasted 35 hurricane days and only 11 actually occurred-the lowest number since 2002.
> FIGURE 12-19 A time series of an index representing the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation from 1856 through the spring of 2008.
Monthly values for the AMO index, 1856-2008

0.6 o.4
E
o
0.2 o.o
-0.2
(d
1860
1880
900
1920
Year
940
1960
1980
Recent (and Future?) Trends in Hurricane
Activity
399
2oo3
Numberof 14
Tropical Storms
14 13
2004 14
90 20
2oo5
26159 116
14
2006
15
2007
Observed
predicted Observed predicted Observed Predicted Observed Predicted Observed Predicted
14
Numberof 60
Tropical Storm Days Number Hurricanes Hurricane
Days
71
55
95
10
75
50
75
34
of
Numberof 25
Number lntense Hurricanes
32
30
46
55
48
35
20
35
11
of of
3 5 120%
Number lntense Hurricane Days
17
22
18
17
10
NetTropical
Cyclong
173%
125%
229o/o 295% 263% 14Oo/o 85%
160%
94%
Activity
source: Data from http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2008/june2008/jun2008.pdf.
percentage of the total number of tropical storms, tropical overall indicator of tropical storm and hurricane activity. lt is defined as the average seasonal and intense hurricane days in the year, relative to their long-term averages' storm days, hurricanes, hurricane days, intense hurricanes, *An
<
FIGURE12.20
The number of
Atlantic tropical storms (purple), Category 1-2

hurricanes (orange), and Category 3-5 hurricanes (green) by year, 1851-2004.
tr
6(.)
a a
E
q)
o CJ
b o ro o lr) o ro o ro o tr) o to o tl? I
H H H X ai
Ed
H Ei
EaEEEE ; ; s H to o to o r-) a lQ IE E 3 E E E E
Lo
n o to o to o
r;;r-c\lN
I I
400
CHAPTER 12
Pressure Category mb >980 1 2
Wind
Speed mph
Storm Surge
km/hr
ft
Damage Minimal. No major damage to most building structures. Moderate. Some roof, door, and window damage. Some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes.
Extensive. Some structural damage to small residences. Some large trees blown down. Some mobile homes destroyed. Extreme.Some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Many shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes.
119-154 74-95
96-1
1-2 4-S 2-3 6-8
965-979 155-178
10
945-964 179-210
11
1-130 3-4 9-12
g2}-g44 211-250 131-155 4-6 13-18
<920
>250
>155
>6
>18
Catastrophic.Some complete
building failures. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down.
doubling in the number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the western North Pacific, western South Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic oceans since 1970 that coincides with increasing water temperatures. Interestingly, the North Atlantic experienced the smallest increase in major hurricanes among those basins. Another highly cited 2005 study pointed to a substantial increase in the overall energy released by Atlantic hurricanes in recent decades, reflected in both hurricane intensity and duration. That article noted, however, that only part of the increase in Atlantic hurricane activity could be ascribed to increasing sea surface temperatures (an assertion that was not widely reported by the popular press). And yet another 2005 article used the results of computer simulations to
obtain the same conclusions based on empirical observations. Thus, there is better reason to suspect that global warming might influence the intensity of hurricanes than the number of hurricanes. Based on the above considerations, it appears that an increase in hurricanes and intense hurricanes may be a fact of life for residents along the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic coast in the years to come-
at least for a few decades. Whether we are witnessing
a longer term trend is currently unknown. Factors beyond sea surface temperatures could affect the intensity of hurricanes in a world with higher air anc sea surface temperatures, and some of these factors could make it harder for hurricanes to develop in a warmer world. We are more vulnerable than ever to the destructive potential of hurricanes for the simple reason tha: there has been enormous population growth along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts in recent decades. This rr-ilcontinue to make evacuations of large populations more difficult in response to approaching hurricane= (as witnessed during the evacuation of southeast Texa:
Hurricane Rita approached in 2005). Without question, hurricanes are among the mos: exciting of natural phenomena, a fitting subject for cor.cluding this section on weather disturbances. The remaining sections of this book will examine huma: activities and meteorology, and climate and climat. change. In our next chapter we turn our attention t; weather forecasting.
as
Recenl (and Future?) Trends in Hurricane
Activity
401
Category 4 Hurricanes
Maximum
Name Claudette
Felix Luis Opal Edouard Hortense Georges Bret Year
1
Maximum
Sustained Winds (mi/hr)
130
Month
September August August
September, October
Sustained Winds (km/hr) 215 220 220 240 230 220 250 230 220 250 240 250 220 220 230 220 230 230 230 230 230 240
Minimum
Pressure (mb)
946
991
1995 1995 1995 1996 1996

'1998
1 1
't40 140
150
929
935 919 933 935 937
August, September September September August August September September

November September, October September, October
145
140
155
999 999
145 140
'155
944 942
921 930 933 943
941
Cindy
Floyd Gert Lenny lsaac Keith lris Michelle
Liti
1999
1
999 999
150 155
2000 2000
2001 2001
144
140
October
November
145 140
938 934 940 939

947
2002
2003
October September August August September July
145 145
145
Fabian Charley Frances

Karl
2004 2004 2004

2005
145 145
150
937 938 930
Dennis
Category 5 Hurricanes
Andrew Mitch lsabel lvan Emily Katrina Rita Wilma
Dean Felix
1 1
992 998
August October-November September September July August September October August September
280 285
270 270
175
180 165 165 160
922
905 915 910 929 902 895
2003
2004
2005 2005 2005 2005 2007 2007
260
280
175
'180
285 295 280 280
185
902
905
175 175
929
402
CHAPTER
12
;'i.l ;";q,.,,1ii;fu i]::..
11 1:,
Some natural disasters are so embedded
Clines warnings were, however, few

people evacuated, and some residents even rode to the beach to watch the
heavy waves crash against the shore.
in our folklore that virtually everybody

knows about them. We have all heard about the San Francisco eadhquake of 1906 and the Great Chicago Fire of
1871 . Yet the single deadliest natural dis-
eternity. Among those lost was my wife, who never rose above the water
after the wreck of the building. Cline and his brother were luckier anc grabbed onto floating debris that helpec
aster
in U.S. history the Galveston
fexas) hurricane of 1900, seems to have been lost from the national memory. ln just a few hours, rising sea waters and heavy surf drowned 6000 persons on Galveston lsland-a narrow strip of land that peaks at less than 3 m (9 ft) above
sea level (Figure 1). The loss of life resulted not from lack
When the hurricane arrived, the people of Galveston had no way to escape. Within hours the rising seas completely covered the island so that the only potential sheller was in taller, well-built structures. Even these failed to withstand the pounding of waves and debris. Cline later gave the following account of his ordeal:
them stay afloat. After
3 hours, the
floodwaters subsided and the Clines

were on solid land, among the survivors The horror did not end with the passage of the hurricane, There were st
By
8 clr. a
number of houses had
6000 bodies to deal with. Some wer: taken out to sea on barges, but manwashed back to shore. Ultimately, mcs.
of the bodies were cremaled where the. were found. With our current ability to lrack an: forecast the movement of approachin:
of warning but rather from a failure to take the lhreat serjously. Two days earlier, a strong storm was reported moving
westward into the Gulf
off Cuba, and ships returning from the Gulf
of Mexico
Mexico reported encountering the storm offshore the day before it made landfall. Furthermore, the local weather forecaster, lsaac Cline, observed the combination of winds and heavy surf
along the local beach and deduced that the storm would move onshore. But evidence of the impending landfall seems to have been largely unheeded, in part
of
drifted up and lodged to the east and southeast of my residence, and these with the force of the waves acted as a battering ram against which it was impossible for any building to stand for any length of time, and at 8:30 P.M., my residence went down with about fifty persons who had sought it for safely, and all but eighteen were hurled lnto
hurricanes, there
is no
reason
for :
repeat of this type of loss of life in Nor:-
America. But hurricanes will alwai. present a threat to Gulf and Atlani :
coasts that must be respected.
because some meleorologists
erro-
neously believed it was virtually impossible for a storm in the Caribbean to track
across the Gulf. Scientists (including

Cline) were also erroneously convinced that the gently sloping seafloor offshore would protect Galveston from major flooding in the event of a hurricane. There is some uncertainty as to when people started to take the hurricane seriously. According to Cline's account of the disaster, he rode lhrough Galveston lsland urging residents to evacuate, but recent research casts doubt about the degree to which he actually warned the populace. Regardless of how urgent
FIGURE
disaster in U.S. history. ^
1 The
Galveston hurricane of 1900 was the deadliest natural
Becent (and Future?) Trends in Hurricane Activity
403
]''i:*;;,,r.1.
.,
-lurricanes that make landfall over the Jnited States can be deadly, but nothing rn the scale of what has been witnessed r other parts of the world due to cyclones and phoons. ln 1970 Bangladesh (then cart of Pakistan) was hit by a tropical :yclone that killed between 300,000 and 500,000 people. This dsaster led to the :onstruction of more than 2500 concrete
1)to protect resCents against future cyclone hits. These shelters have undoubtedly saved hunJreds of thousands of lives, first in 1991 .vhen a cyclone hit the country with heavy 'ain, Category 5 winds, and a 9 m (30 ft) storm surge. Despite the fact that this was :re strongest cyclone to hit the country in
shelters on pillars (Figure
rrore than a century the death toll was about 70,000-a horrific number but far
smaller than that of the 1970 cyclone. The
FIGURE 't One of more than 2500 cyclone shelters set up in '1970. Bangladesh after the catestrophic cyclone of ^
shelters once again saved tens of thousands of lives in November 2007 when another Category 5 cyclone, Sidr, hit the lountry Estimates of the number of fatali. es have varied between 3000 and 0.000-another terrrible number but far ess than that which would have occurred .'rithout the shelters. ln May 2008 Tropical Cyclone Nargis =igure 2) made nternational news when : hit Myanmar (formerly called Burma) at
.s peak strength, packing peak winds :stimated at 213 km/hr (132 mph) and
croducing heavy rains and a 3.7 m
(1
2 ft)
siorm surge. The disaster was intensi-
'ed by the ruling military dictatorship that

:ened entry to international relief workers :rying to bring food and medical supplies :c the country. At least 77,OOO PeoPle :ied from Nargis-perhaps as many as C0,000-which would make it the dead-
est cyclone to hit Asia since the 1991 siorm. Two to three million people were
:ft
homeless.
Much of the coastline of South Asia is cerfectly situated for disasters such as
:nese. Low-lying coastal areas, often

^ear rivers that can ovedlow their banks, and a poorly developed infrastructure for shelter and evacuation put the lives of -lillons of people in great danger. lt is a :''agic fact that events such as the ones
tescribed here not unlikely

ceated at great human cost.
to be re-
FlGLrRH 2 Satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Nargis approaching Myanmar. ^
4O4 CHAPTEH
12
SUMMARY
Hurricanes (and their counterparts such as typhoons and tropical cyclones) are extremely powerful storms that originate in tropical regions and migrate into the middle latitudes. They bring enormous destruction and loss of life to many coastal regions of the world. The hurricane that hit Galveston Island, Texas, in 1900 was the greatest single natural disaster to hit North America, with a death toll of 6000. This figure pales in comparison to the hundreds of thousands of fatalities associated
with individual tropical cyclones in southern Asia. Most hurricanes begin their life cycles as uneventful tropical disfurbances, small clusters of thunderstorms. When they intensify and organize into a rotating band of cloud cover and thunderstorm activity, they are called tropical depressions. Further intensification results in their being classified as tropical storms, or hurricanes if their sustained wind speeds exceed 120 km/hr. Because strong tropical storms can form only over oceans having high surface temperatures, tropical depressions most often become tropical storms and eventually hurricanes over the western portions of
the ocean basins. Hurricanes are smaller than midlatitude cyclones
but much larger than tornadoes. They can last for a week or more and travel thousands of kilometers
before dissipating. The heaviest thunderstorm activity
occurs within bands of thick cloud cover that spiral toward the center of the system in a pinwheel pattern. The intensity of the storm increases toward its center
until reaching the eye wall, the concentric zone of maximum activity that surrounds the eye. The eye of a hurricane is strikingly different from the rest of the hurricane because it is marked by generally clear skies,
light winds, and higher air temperatures. Often it is hard to discern the true structure of a hurricane from above, because the anticyclonically rotating outflow ir. the upper troposphere creates a blanket of cirrostratu: clouds overlying the thicker cumulus. Hurricanes can produce damage in several wavs Copious amounts of rain can bring intense floods, anc strong winds can bring down structures. The most serjous threat posed by a hurricane is the storm surge, the elevated rise in sea level due to low atmospheric pre=sure and the piling up of water by strong winds. Whe:the storm surge coincides with a high tide, the floodwaters (coupled with heavy surf) can penetrate considerable distances inland. The National Hurricane Center of the NationaWeather Service uses a sophisticated network of satellites, research aircraft, and computer hardware an software to issue advisories on the likelihood of hurrlcane landfall. The erratic nature of hurricanes make. predicting them particularly difficult, but recent moiernization at the National Weather Service has substar.tially increased forecast accuracy. Hurricanes have become more frequent in the Atlantic Ocean since the mid-1990s, and several particularly devastating hurricanes left their mark on Unite: States coastal areas in 2004 and 2005. This increase: activity is partly due to a shift in the Atlantic Multdecadal Oscillation, a25- to }-year cycle on ocean ten-peratures, that occurred around 1995. While th. potential impact of global warming on hurricanes i. not entirely understood, it is likely that global warmir: will lead to more intense hurricanes rather than mo:.
frequent hurricanes.
Review
Questions 405
WEATHER IN MOTION
The 2005 Hurricane Season Satellite movie showing all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic from |une 1 to November 1, 2005.
microwave, visible, and infrared imagery obtained by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM).
Hurricane Slice
This brief movie shows the pinwheel structure of ricane after clearing away the overlying cirrus.
a
Hurricane Katrina I A satellite movie showing Hurricane Katrina from the time it approaches Florida to its second landfall in Louisiana and Mississippi. Hurricane Katrina 2 Radar loop of Hurricane Katrina as it hits Florida. Hurricane Katrina 3
Radar loop of Hurricane Katrina prior to hitting the Gulf coast.
hur-
Hurricane Eye Wall Aview of a hurricane eye wall as seen from a hurricane chase plane. Note the abrupt transition from clear air within the hurricane eye and the massive wall of cloud
encircling the eye.
Hurricane Dennis
A computer-enhanced movie showing the movement

of Hurricane Dennis along the Atlantic Coast.
Hurricane Rita View the movement of Category 5 Hurricane Rita as

moves over the Gulf of Mexico.
it
Hurricane Wilma Hurricane Wilma as it moves toward Florida. A Fly-Through of Hurricane Mitch This movie opens with a view of this devastating hurricane obtained by satellite sensors. As the movie zooms in on the hurricane, the overlying cirrus clouds are stripped away so that the interior structure of the storm is evident. This movie was compiled using
Storm Surge The combination of low pressure and strong onshore winds can bring elevated sea levels and strong waves ashore. This scene shows what a moderate storm surge can look like. Hurricane Damage Aview of severe inland damage in the wake of a major
hurricane, as seen from
a helicopter.
lnterview with Chase Plane Pilot Have you ever wondered what it must be like to fly into a hurricane? Take a look at this film clip and hear firsthand from an expert.
KEY TERMS
hurricane page372 typhoon page372 ryclone page372 trade wind inversion page373
marine
eye
wall
page376
double eye walls

page376
hot
towers
page376
tropical
layer
page373
eye
page376
disturbance page376 easterly waves page 377
tropical depression page378 tropical storm page378 storm surge page387 hurricane watch page396
hurricane warning page396
Saffir-Simpson scale page397 Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation
page397
406
CHAPTER"l
REVIEW QUESTIONS
1.
Describe the geographic distribution of hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones. \vVhat environmental conditions at these locations favor the development of such storms?
L0. What ocean surface characteristics are required for the intensification of storms into hurricanes and
the maintenance of hurricanes?
2. \Arhich region has the greatest incidence of major

tropical storms? What is the trade wind inversion, and what impact does it have on the formation of hurricanes?
4. Describe the size, sea level air pressure, and speed of a typical hurricane.
5.
11. Is there a "typical" path that hurricanes take after forming? Explain.
12. VVhat feature associated with hurricanes causes the greatest destruction to coastal regions? Is this also true of inland regions?
1.3.
wind
Why is the right hand side of a hurricane (relative to its direction of movement) the most dangerous?
When are hurricanes most likely to form? cloud and precipitation patterns associated with hurricanes, including those associated various ways in which hurricanes dif-
't4. Where are tornadoes most
likely to be embedded
6. Describe the
in
15.
a hurricane?
with the eye and eye wall.

7. Describe the
What are hurricane watches and warnings? Are they exact corollaries to tornado watches and
warnings?
fer from midlatitude cyclones.

8.
1.6.
9.
What are tropical disturbances, and how do easterly waves influence them? Describe the characteristics that distinguish tropical disturbances, tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes from each other.
Why are forecasters concerned with issuing hurricane advisories for areas that do not eventualh' get hit?
17. What is the highest hurricane category on the SaffirSimpson scale? How frequently do hurricanes of that magnitude occur?
CRITICAL THINKING
1. 2.
Why don't hurricanes cross the equator? If two hurricanes pass just to the west of Cuba over a 2-week period, what reasons might one have for
expecting the second one to be weaker than the first?
Does this association prove the connection betweer,
temperature and hurricane activity? Explain

or why not.
r,r'hr
3.
4.
5.
How might previous drought conditions affect the intensity of a former hurricane as it passes over the southern United States? El Nifro conditions are believed to suppress hurricane development in the Atlantic. How might the phenomenon affect hurricane formation and movement in the Pacific? It has been postulated that an increase in global temperatures could lead to an increase in the number and intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes. Global temperatures were particularly high during the 1990s and early 2000s, and there has been an increase in Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995.
If global warming continues, thermal expansion oi the oceans and the melting of glaciers will lead to a
higher
7-
sea level. How would this affect ihe threat o: storm surges relative to wind damage and floodingl
Experts believe that New York City is the third mos: dangerous city in the United States with regard tt'
hurricanes, despite the fact that there has been nt' major hurricane-inflicted damage on the area (othe: than some wind damage and coastal erosion fron'.
Hurricane Gloria in 1985). What factors could b. responsible for this vulnerability? After answerin! this question, refer to http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu' mandias/38hurricane/ for an informative discussioiof this issue.
UsefulWeb
Sites
4O7
PROBLEMS AND EXERCISES

Compare the area of a hurricane that measures 600 km in diameter to a midlatitude cyclone having a diameter of three times greater (1800 km). existing conditions have led the forecast team to
make its prediction? Also, use this Web site to determine how successful last year's forecast was.
During the tropical storm season, use the Web sites described below to note the positions of current systems and the probabilities of landfall at various coastal locations. Describe how successful the predictions proved to be. Refer to the forecast for the upcoming tropical storm
season at http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/.
\zVhat
4. Refer to http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/severe weatherurricanes.html and read the Special

Reports on the past year's hurricane activity. Were any tropical storms particularly noteworthy?
QUANTITATIVE PROBLEMS
You can gain a deeper understanding of hurricanes by rvorking out some numerical problems. These are available from this book's Web site, ww'w.mygeoscienceplace
.com. Log on to the site and go to the Chapter 12 section for some thought-provoking problems.
USEFUL WEB SITES

http ://www.nhc.noaa. gov/
http ://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/severeweather/
Official Web page for the Tropical Prediction Center.
Hurricane Center
hurricanes.html
http ://www.wunderground.com/tropical/ Site opens with a map showing current tropical activity and provides numerous links for satellite images, advisories, outlooks, and discussions.
Climatological information and data on past hurricanes from the National Climate Data Center.
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/ Official Web site of the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University. Includes much information,
such as the seasonal tropical storm forecast and a description of factors used to predict the upcoming season.
http //www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-p ages/tc-home.html Comprehensive information provided by the Monterey \aval Research Laboratory.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edrl/tropic/tropic.html -\rchived and real-time imagery and a large amount of text in-formation from the University of Wisconsin-
http ://www2.sunysuf f olk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/ A comprehensive and interesting review of the hurricane of 1938 and what it tells us about the vulnerability of the New York area to future events. http://www.ncdc.noaa. gov/oa/repos/tech-report2005012.pdf An excellent analysis of Hurricane Katrina.
\ladison Tiopical Cyclone Research Team.

http//www.solar.if a.hawaii.edu/IropicaUtropical.html
Current hurricane information and several data archives.
http ://www.usatoday.com/weather/hurricane/
hurricane-resources.html >ome basic information from
US
Today.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/trurricane.shtml The latest seasonal hurricane forecast issued each spring by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

W&amp;C 12

Hochgeladen von

Dokumentinformationen

Originalbeschreibung:

Copyright

Verfügbare Formate

Dieses Dokument teilen

Dokument teilen oder einbetten

Freigabeoptionen

Stufen Sie dieses Dokument als nützlich ein?

Sind diese Inhalte unangemessen?

Copyright:

Verfügbare Formate

W&amp;C 12

Hochgeladen von

Copyright:

Verfügbare Formate

(}lt -,'

l'$. ' rtr-,

Tropical Storms and Hurricanes

Hurricanes Around the Globe: The Tropical Setting

Tropical Cyclone (greater than

lntense Hurricane (greater than

(1ees) Northeast Pacific 27

16.3 26.7 5.4 13.3

16 4 (1969, (1990) 1e77) 24 I

(1998) (several) 11 2 (1971 , (1974, 1994, 1998)

Australia/Southeastern Ocean western Pacific Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere Globally

1e94, 2003) 347 (1ee2)

... 1,500 3,000 Miles 0 _r--.-]-0 1,500 3,000 KilometeE

Hurricanes around the globe.

FiURE 12-3 Across-section

Pressure-\ / gradent -Pressure \_/ PRESSUBE gradient

,,";;r*:f /;\ 'r,tlmoh\l-

Winds stronoer on risht side lo;kins in direction hurricane is moving

I s,[.' \l -11 ! .[ b.'*z---'-- -1,!AJl r I :[.' trui

! ;[*1-=a I'i-"il1", I 'l ,k

Tropical Storms and Hurricanes

flcLil?H J*6 Air trajectories initially rise gradually

troposphere and flows outward anticyclonically.

THE EYE AND THE EYE WALL

STEPS IN THE FORMATION OF HURRICANES

weaker than those of the extratropical regions, the east-

tower in Hurricane Rita in 2005 was observed by NASAs

Tropical Storms and Hurricanes

i.iro0 500 500

sion intensifies further and maintains wind

Interest: Naming Hurricanes, for more information on

Hurricane Movement and

of climatic warming, which could be

accompanied by higher ocean temperatures.

CONDITIONS NECESSARY FOR HURRICANE FORMATION

Hurricane Movement and Dissipation

HURRICANE PATHS Once fully developed, tropical

effect at the equator prohibits hurricane formation

Tropical Storms and Hurricanes

During hurricane season, several tropical

ocean. The names on each list are

have been compiled for the cycle. English, Spanish, and

Greek alphabet. Thus, the 22nd namec

Ana Bill Claudette Danny Erika

2010 Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle

Henri lda Joaquin Kate Larry Mindy Nicholas Odette

Sam Teresa Victor Wanda

Otto Paula Richard Shary Tomas Virginie Walter

2013 Andrea Barry Chantal Dorian

Ernesto Florence Gordon

Kirk Leslie Michael Nadine Oscar Patty

Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien

Sandy Tony Valerie William

Sally Teddy Vicky Wilfred

Hurricane Movement and

Particularly notable hurricanes can

to the letter. Thus if in 2013 Alpha is very destructive, it can be noted as

names were added

The practice of naming hurricanes

canes for the years 2OO9-14 are pre-

to have begun during

2009 Andres Blanca Carlos Dolores Enrique

lgnacio Jimena Kevin

W&C 12

W&C 12