An effort by Stockyard in association with Mantra Consultancy Group

16th November,2008 Issue 10

THERE, HERE AND NOW

WHERE? – A PEEP INSIDE
THE CRISIS ENVELOPE

TATA SAYS “TATA” TO

SINGUR

INDIA –FACING
LIQUIDITY CRUNCH
 FROM EDITOR’S DESK

W e are glad to present to you the tenth issue of our fortnightly pub-
……..the people

lished magazine “towards…”.This magazine is fundamentally based on the core issue of

market and its impact on the society and vice versa. In this issue we have covered many
of the macroeconomic topics and also the Subprime crisis from its very root. The main
focus of the magazine is to acquaint you people to all the possible knowledge and analy-
sis done by the members of this team and present you the picture in a very refined man-
ner. In the coming days of the SIP interviews and the placement interviews I think this
magazine can prove to be of great help to all of us. In the current issue, the part of liquid-
towards

ity crunch has been given a new touch of analysis. The hot topic of TATA Nano has been
included so as to make you all know the inner intricacies of the case and decide whether
there is an opportunity loss for the West Bengal government or it is really going to give
some benefit to them in the upcoming elections. The market analysis part focuses on the
market statistics for the past two weeks. We as a team welcome your response and partici-
pation for writing articles. Kindly support this attempt to address your own needs in a
better way and suggest for improvements. I hope you enjoy this journey towards a better
placement and a better SIP.

Wish you all “good luck”.

Wish you all “good reading”.

Editor
 THERE, HERE AND NOW WHERE? – A PEEP INSIDE THE
CRISIS ENVELOPE

Subprime Crisis – two words that ring a bell around the world, more often than not for its strong
connotation with the present financial situation prevailing globally. Even a nine year old girl finds familiar-
ity with the word, not because she understands it technically, but because she has probably heard her father
or mother use it often over dinner pondering upon the declining values of their small investments made in
shares and funds.
It is indeed a crisis; a critical situation, persistent everywhere now, and transcending all the sur-
……..the people

mountable boundaries possible. In this article, we start by briefing about the Subprime Crisis, go on to its
impact on various economies around the world; with the main focus on its impact in India.

Origin of the crisis

Beginning in summer of 2006, the over building of
the houses in the US, especially during the boom period
of housing market, eventually led to an excess of inven-
tory of homes, causing the prices of the houses to de-
cline. An increase in loan incentives such as easy initial
terms, and a long-term trend of rising housing prices had
encouraged borrowers to assume difficult mortgages in
towards

the belief they would be able to quickly refinance at

more favorable terms. However, once housing prices
started depreciating moderately in many parts of the
U.S. and interest rates began to rise at the same time,
homeowners were unable to re-finance and began to default on loans as their loans reset to higher interest
rates and payment amounts. An estimated 8.8 million homeowners — nearly 10.8% of total homeowners
— had zero or negative equity as of March 2008, meaning their homes are worth less than their mortgage.
With the advent of securitization, the credit risk got transferred or distributed to the investors through
Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). According to the figures, the mortgaged-backed securities increased
from 54% in 2001 to 75% in 2006.
It is believed that the securitization of home loans for people with poor credit is one of the main rea-
sons for the present credit turmoil. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae bought mortgages from lending institu-
tions and then either held them in investment portfolios or resold them as mortgage-backed securities to
investors. The two companies played a vital role in providing financing for the housing markets. But ac-
cording to the reports published in the New York Times back in September, 1999, it was stated that Fannie
Mae Corporation was easing the credit requirements on loans thus encouraging banks to extend home
mortgages to individuals with low or moderate incomes whose credit is generally poor. On one side if it
faced pressure from the Clinton Administration to expand mortgage loans, on the other side, it felt the pres-
sure from stock holders to maintain its phenomenal growth in profits. It is also believed that the credit rat-
ing agencies provided investment-grade rating to the securitization transactions (CDOs and MBSs) based
V O L U M E 1 , Ion
S S Usubprime
E 1 mortgages. High credit ratings encouraged the flow of investor funds into these securities,

3
 helping finance the housing boom. But when the ratings were lowered from Quarter3, 2007 to Quarter2,
2008, it put pressure on the financial institutions to lower the value of their MBS.

Impact and downturns in financial markets

The economy started to feel the crisis in February 2007
with the gradual but continuous slowdown of the financial market.
This led to a ‗domino effect‘ in the markets all around the world. The
‗domino effect‘ is a chain reaction that occurs when a small change
causes a similar change nearby, which then will cause another similar
change. Financial institutions from around the world have recognized
……..the people

subprime-related losses and write-downs exceeding US $501 billion as

of August 2008. The financial sector began to feel the consequences of
this crisis in February 2007 with the $10.5 billion write-down of
HSBC, which was the first major CDO (Collateralized Debt Obliga-
tion) or MBS related loss to be reported. During 2007, at least 100
mortgage companies either shut down, suspended operations or were sold. Top management has not es-
caped unscathed, as the CEOs of Merrill Lynch and Citigroup were forced to resign within a week of each
other.
Stock indices worldwide trended downward for several months since the first panic in July–August
2007.The crisis caused panic in financial markets and encouraged investors to take their money out of risky
mortgage bonds and shaky equities and put it into commodities as "stores of value". Financial speculation
towards

in commodity futures following the collapse of the financial derivatives markets has contributed to the
world food price crisis and oil price increases due to a "commodities super-cycle‖. Financial speculators
seeking quick returns have removed trillions of dollars from equities and mortgage bonds, some of which
has been invested into food and raw materials.
On 15 September 2008, a slew of financial concerns caused the indices to drop by their sharpest
amounts since the 2001 terrorist attacks. That day, the most noteworthy trigger was the declared bank-
ruptcy of investment bank Lehman Brothers. It was the largest casualty of the global credit crisis, and
given its assets at the time of filing, Lehman surpassed WorldCom as the biggest U.S. bankruptcy filing till
date. The investment banker had close to $639 billion in assets at the time of filing, while WorldCom had
about $107 billion when it did the same in 2002. Additionally, Merrill Lynch was joined with Bank of
America in a forced merger worth $50 billion. Finally, concerns over insurer American International
Group's (AIG) ability to stay capitalized caused that stock to drop over 60% that day. Poor economic data
on manufacturing contributed to the day's panic, but were eclipsed by the severe developments of the fi-
nancial crisis. All of these events culminated into a stock selloff that was experienced worldwide.

Bailout package
The much anticipated passage of the $700 billion bailout plan was struck down by the House of
Representatives in a 228–205 vote on September 29. In the context of recent history, the result was catas-
trophic for stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered a severe 777 point loss (7.0%), its worst
point loss on record up to that date. The NASDAQ tumbled 9.1% and the S&P 500 fell 8.8%, both of
VOLUME 1, ISSUE 1
which the worst losses were those indices experienced since the 1987 stock market crash.

4
 Despite congressional passage of historic bailout legislation, which was signed by President Bush on Oct,
4, Dow Jones Index tumbled further when markets resumed trading on Oct, 6. crisis it is expected that it
will take years for the United States to recover from such a mess. It is also estimated that even with the
passing of the so-called bailout package; many banks within the United States will tumble and therefore
cease operating. It is estimated that over 100 banks in the United States will close their doors because of
the financial crisis. This will have a severe impact on the economy and consumers. As a result of the
President Bush also signed into law on 13 February, 2008 an economic stimulus package of $168 billion,
mainly in the form of income tax rebates, to help stimulate economic growth. The economic stimulus pack-
age included the mailing of rebate checks to taxpayers. Such mailings started the week of 28 April 2008.
These mailings, however, coincided with unexpected all-time jumps in food and gasoline prices.
……..the people

The U.S. federal government has made significant financial commitments through efforts to sup-
port the financial system. This includes pledges of up to $200 billion to protect Fannie Mae and Freddie
Mac, an $85 billion bridge loan for AIG, and a $29 billion loan guarantee for Bear Stearns.
The subprime crisis had a series of other economic effects. Housing price declines left consumers
with less wealth, which placed downward pressure on consumption. The sudden lack of credit also caused
a slump in car sales. Ford sales in October 2008 were down 33.8% from a year ago, General Motors sales
were down 15.6%, and Toyota sales had declined 32.3%. One in five car dealerships are expected to close
in fall of 2008.
One possible impact of US subprime crisis on global markets would be certain unforeseen losses
pertaining to securities. If such a situation arises, it would further make credit conditions stringent. Conse-
towards

quently, loss incurred on securities would increase. As a cumulative effect, the financial markets would
spiral downward causing the monetary policies to become looser.
With regard to equity markets, it is being anticipated that equity markets may go down and the cost of
capital (effective) may rise by 200 basis points as compared to the baseline. As a result of the credit con-
straints, business investment in the United States of America would drop, unemployment would rise and
there would be a prolonged phase of depression in the consumer prices.

Impact on Indian economy

Also this crisis could
hit developing economies that
export a lot to the US. Around
40% of Chinese exports, for ex-
ample, go to the US. About
22%of Indian goods exports go
to the US and a significantly
larger share of India‘s service
exports. However it was stated
by economists of the World
Bank that the Impact of US sub-
prime crisis on India and China
may not be very large. But the
VOLUME 1, ISSUE 1
actual picture is something Movement of Sensex and Nifty from Jan-Oct 2008
5
 different because this crisis has propelled both the economies on a slowing node. In last fiscal (2007-08),
India and China have shown economic growth by 8.9% and 11.9% respectively but this time these are esti-
mated at 7.7% and 10.1% respectively. Also in last 9 months, stock market in India has plunged by more
than 50%. FIIs have pulled out $11.09 billion in 2008 as Indian markets joined the global meltdown
triggered by the subprime and credit crises. A major reason for the 50 per cent fall in the Sensex this year
is FII withdrawals.

Impact on IT sector
If we look closely at some of the sectors in India which have been hit significantly by the global
crisis, then the IT sector, one of India‘s largest export-earners, is almost certain to be affected. The industry
……..the people

earns more than 60% of its revenue from the US and the recent wave of closures and mergers will mean
the sprucing of many software-related services. A worse downward revision is expected this quarter as
well, though some larger players like TCS and Satyam have officially denied any possible impact on
growth. As we know, for the software services companies in India, 85-90% billing is done in US dollars.
Therefore, the recent rupee depreciation will have a positive impact on their earnings, and in turn prove
positive for the sector as a whole. In fact, according to reports that came in on 9 July, 2008 by outsourcing
industry‘s top body - National Association of Software and Services Companies (NASSCOM) - Indian
software exports grew 29% in the financial year just ended despite global economic turmoil. But looking at
the flip side, firms like Infosys might lose some revenue owing to the fact that they obtain 28% of revenues
from the Euro, British Pound and Australian Dollar and the US Dollar has been appreciating against these
towards

currencies. So, when these earnings are translated into US Dollars, they will have a negative 2% impact on
the company‘s earnings. So, the currency depreciation need not necessarily paint a rosy picture for the IT
sector.

Impact on Banking sector

As a consequence of the global events, banking industry in India has also affected. The Indian
banks find it difficult to raise funds from abroad for their overseas operations and now have to rely on do-
mestic borrowing. While ICICI Bank has lost as much as $264 million up until January due to its exposure
in the overseas credit derivatives markets, other banks are also facing significant losses. Although the
banks borrowed money from RBI, it wasn‘t sufficient. The country's finance minister and the RBI gover-
nor have repeatedly stepped in to cool the nerves, with comforting words, and immediate measures to ease
the problems and forward-looking initiatives. The CRR has been decreased from 9% to 5.5%, Repo Rate
from 9% to 7.5% and SLR from 25% to 24%. By these as well as some other measures, RBI has created
liquidity in the market of worth 2,85,000Crore. RBI has used these tools to keep a tight control over the
general interest rates in the economy. With high inflation rate on one hand and the herculean task of main-
taining growth in the economy on the other, the RBI is taking keen measures and will have to continue bal-
ancing the CRR and Repo Rates. One must add here though, that the decline in prices globally of metals in
particular and crude oil would both have a soothing effect on inflation during the year end quarter. Says a
recent release by CRISIL, ―The profit levels of the Indian Banks are likely to be impacted by mark-to-
market provisions on investment portfolios and considerably lower profit on sale of investments, as com-
V O L U M E 1 , Ipared
S S U E 1 with previous years.‖ To sum up, expect margins for banks to remain under pressure for some more

time now.
6
 To a question asked by a worried investor about how the fall in the market affects his invest-
ments, this is what the Telegraph had to say, ―A savings bank account gives you 3.5% interest — which
means you are actually losing money when you factor in inflation. At the moment, the best bet is a bank
fixed deposit that yields just above 10 per cent. Gold looked like a good bet but it is turning volatile now.
Stocks and mutual funds are gutted in this turmoil — so you won‘t lose sleep if you have not parked your
money there.‖ And, hopefully that applies to most of us as well.

Impact on Education sector

Amidst all this tumult, education sector in India has also
……..the people

affected drastically. One of the most confused is the set of students

who are standing at the brink of their career starting-point, facing a
harsh reality. Instead of hiring professionals, companies are seen ei-
ther laying off hundreds of employees or cutting down on packages
being offered to fresh graduates. This definitely has become the hot-
topic among the young graduates who, when started off with the re-
spective engineering or commerce courses expecting a high return
when they join the corporate world; whereas now, all that they have
in hand are a few offer letters with much lower packages than be-
fore. Also, the students with offer letters fear the long wait and have started to look out for alternatives.
The most hit are the Engineering and Management schools, with MBAs being offered much lower pack-
towards

ages than their averaged college salary. It definitely sets in a gloomy atmosphere, with the students tending
to change the entire career choice itself. But, career counselors look at the brighter side and ask the stu-
dents to grab the best of out of the situation and learn from the crisis. They also maintain that India is not
yet as adversely affected by the turmoil as other countries around the world.
It is not just the jobs that the sector is deprived of. Institutes like IITs and IIMs are wary of a
possible cut-back on the endowment funds because of the global economic slowdown. ―Funds received
from alumni and companies are usually meant for specific projects. These funds pour in between October
and December every year. Current projects will not be affected despite the economic slowdown, but new
projects might take a hit,‖ said T KGhosal, deputy registrar (finance), the Indian Institute of Technology,
Kharagpur.

The Subprime Crisis: Cause, Effect and Consequences argues that three basic issues are at the root
of the problem, the first of which is an odious public policy partnership, spawned in Washington and com-
prising hundreds of companies, associations and government agencies, to enhance the availability of af-
fordable housing via the use of creative financing techniques. Second, federal regulators have actively en-
couraged the rapid growth of over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives and securities by all types of financial
institutions. And third, also bearing blame for the subprime crisis is the related embrace by the Securities
and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Financial Accounting Standards Board of fair value accounting.
After reviewing the Bush administration's proposed solutions as flawed, this article recommends a strategy
for subprime crisis resolution. Job one is to rebuild market confidence in structured assets by going back to
V O L U M E 1 , Ifirst
S S U E principles
1 on issues such as market transparency, standardization of contracts, and accounting treat-
ment.

7
 By reducing complexity on the trade of structured assets through simple deal structures and pro-
viding investors with the information they need to analyze collateral, for example by requiring SEC regis-
tration and public pricing of assets, much of the current liquidity problem is ameliorated.
Greenspan, the former Chairman of the Federal Reserve, stated: "The current credit crisis will
come to an end when the overhang of inventories of newly built homes is largely liquidated, and home
price deflation comes to an end…… Very large losses will, no doubt, be taken as a consequence of the cri-
sis. But after a period of protracted adjustment, the U.S. economy, and the world economy more generally,
will be able to get back to business."

Contributed by: Mukesh Mangal

……..the people

Ramya Pragya

INVESTMENT QUOTES

“I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they
could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”

WARREN BUFFET
towards

“Rule No.1: Never lose money.

Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1.”
WARREN BUFFET

“The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different
scenarios... The idea that you can actually predict what's going to happen contradicts my
way of looking at the market.”

GEORGE SOROS

“Stock market bubbles don't grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but
reality as distorted by a misconception.”

GEORGE SOROS

VOLUME 1, ISSUE 1

8
 MARKET WATCH

SENSEX
17th Oct: Sensex sinks below 10,000

30-share Sensex on Friday plunged below the 10,000-level for the first time since July 2006.Indian stocks
started their journey southward after the European markets turned weak. Also, the Dow Jones Industrial
Average Futures index charted the same path.
……..the people

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000
Sensex

4,000 DJIA

2,000

0
towards

24th Oct: Sensex loses 1,071; global stocks plummet

Investors were witness to one of the blackest days in Indian stock market history as FIIs shed a record
quantity of Indian stocks. The index collapsed to 2005 levels, breaching the 9000-mark to close at 8701
(down 1070.63). The central bank did not change any of the key interest rates; on the other hand, the GDP
forecast was pegged down from 8 per cent to 7.5 per cent. The markets opened with a negative gap track-
ing other Asian markets which were trading down. The Nikkei was down 9.6 per cent and the Hang Sang
down 4.66 per cent. The European markets too were trading in the red, the FTSE tanking 7 per cent. The
Dow too was down 500 points overnight.

3rd Nov: Markets recover on RBI measures

Equity and currency markets rose, buoyed by the massive liquidity support announced by the Reserve
Bank of India. The benchmark Sensex regained the 10,000-mark. The index closed up 550 points or 5.62
per cent to close at 10337.68.

11th Nov: Sensex sheds 700 points on economic worries

Heavy profit booking after a two-day gain of more than 800 points hammered the benchmark index – the
Sensex—down by almost 700 points. India‘s 15 per cent decline in exports in October – the highest decline
VOLUME 1, ISSUE 1
in several years – also dampened investor sentiment, sparking off more selling.

9
 TATA SAYS “TATA” TO SINGUR
MISS BANERJEE’S LOSS, MR. MODI’S GAIN

The much talked about Re.1 lakh, the people‘s car, made Singur a flashpoint and a hotspot for
politics. The story began when CPI (M), the ruling party in the state had acquired 997.11 acres of land re-
quired for Nano. Cashing in on the situation, Mamta Banerjee, Trinamool Congress head started the agita-
tion against the same, demanding more compensation for the farmers. It took a tragic turn when the police
opened fire on the agitated people, killing 14 people and leaving many others injured. This agitation was
the centre of media‘s attraction for quite a while. Little could Budhhadeb Bhattacharjee do when Tatas de-
……..the people

cided to step out of Singur.

Just when CPM, the party ruling over West Bengal for
more than 30 years was taking step away from its age old anti-
industrialist policies towards industrialization and development, it
was stalled by Mamta Banerjee. She took advantage of the situation
and the communist mentality of the people. CPM is reaping what it
had sown 30 years back. The Singur drama was the opportunity
Miss Banerjee was looking for. She needed a platform to make it
big in Bengal and she got it in the form of Singur. The Nano project
is of national importance and would have changed the face of West
towards

Bengal and Singur forever. So, this should not have been made an
issue for politics and election. Lok Sabha elections are scheduled
for May 2009. Miss Banerjee took advantage of some 15-16%
farmers who did not sell their land they were mostly illiterates, ab-
sentees or Trinmool congress workers. The farmers feared that gov-
ernment will pay them prices below market prices. Mamta was right or wrong depends on the individual
perception. She can be perceived as savior by the farmers across India or a dirty politician by the urban
working class. The picture will be clear only after 2009 Lok Sabha election.

The reasons that forced Tatas to pull out from Singur was its policy of ―squeaky clean‖ public
image. Tatas have always been very particular about their image. It took them decades to build upon that.
How could they afford to risk it now by the controversies involved with Singur? So they thought it was
wiser to quit and find a place free of controversy. At the same time, they gave their ―concern for employ-
ees‘ safety‖ as another reason to leave Singur.

Also, this article would be incomplete without discussion on the most important and infamous rea-
son for relocation of Tata Nano, Miss Mamta Banerjee. Miss Banerjee is a lawyer by education and
amongst those few people who could make to the coveted Lok Sabha in their 20‘s. She is known to be ag-
gressive (read stubborn) to the extent of being violent at times. Once she clasped the collar of Samajwadi
MP Amar Singh in parliament.

It is in fact one of the most devastating turn of events in Singur. Business houses will now
VOLUME 1, ISSUE 1
think several times before putting a step forward in West Bengal. After all the turmoil, finally Nano has

10
 found a new home, at Sanand, a muncipality in Ahmedabad district of
Gujrat . Narendra Modi has been prompt enough to provide Nano with
the entire infrastructure required. After having his share of pie, now Nar-
endra Modi is all set to improve upon his image as a chief minister who
is very much concerned about the development of his state. All of a sud-
den his image has changed from ―Bad M‖ to ―Good M‖. Bengal‘s loss is
Gujarat‘s gain; Nano is truly another feather in Modi‘s cap. The reasons
behind choosing Gujarat amongst the other available options of Dharwad
(Karnataka), Pune, Pantnagar(Uttarakhand) are very simple, as told by
Mr Ratan Tata. The most important point Mr. Tata emphasized was the
pace at which Gujarat CM Narendra Modi made the land available.
……..the people

Unlike most of the states that required approval from their assembly regarding the same. Also Tatas are not
expecting any protests this time because Gujarat is an investor friendly state. Mr. Tata said that if they
could move the plant in a day they could have actually started operating here. One year before Mr. Tata
had said that ―It is stupid if you are not in Gujarat.‖ But the catch here is that Gujarat does not believe in
concessions. Still according to Tata group the package given by Gujarat is almost similar to that of West
towards

Bengal‘s. Whatever package Gujarat may give it can never be as cheap as Bengal as the prices of labour,
land, etc prevailing are very low, this may add to Nano‘s cost considerably. It maybe not very far when we
see price of Nano rise from its 1lakh tag.

Given all the facts, Singur controversy is a perfect example of how politicians embark on agitations
that block development. It is a sin to be involved in such kind of cheap politics. Though certain concerns
raised by her were reasonable, but addressing them by inciting violence is not in anybody‘s interest.
Mamta Bannerjee should realize that she has done no good to the people of Singur, by isolating them from
development, by making them lose their future jobs. West Bengal will be out of race in the fast growing
industrialization. Hopefully, Gujarat will prove to be lucky place for Nano plant and hopefully the stock
prices which got shattered during Singur crisis will move up.

Contributed by: Amar Saboo

Sugandha Chawla
VOLUME 1, ISSUE 1

11
 MACRO ECONOMY
INDIA: FACING LIQUIDITY CRUNCH

When Lehman brothers filed for bankruptcy un-

der chapter 11 the world was shocked by the decision. The
rumors came in that ICICI bank, the largest private sector
bank of India, has excess exposure in the bankrupt bank
and will face severe problems in liquidity. Then we get a
……..the people

data from the RBI as follows:

Depositors pull out 17000crore from ICICI bank

Deposits (Rs cr) Rs. cr

Bank 10 oct 2008 31 march 2008 Difference
SBI 574643 522583 52060
ICICI 227384 244431 -17047
PNB 181000 166457 14543
towards

HDFC 131750 100769 30981

Canara Bank 165600 154072 11528
Bank of India 136655 125520 11135

We see that depositors pulled out in excess of 17Kcrore from the ICICI bank where as SBI re-
ceived in excess of 52kcrores as deposits. This started the spark of the liquidity crisis in India which spread
like wild fire and a series of events kept the entire sector as well as money market on tenterhooks, banks
lacked trust in lending via call money markets thus the rates shot up overnight and the trouble began.

Change in %

Sept 26 , 2008 Oct 10, 2008 Oct 10 , 2007 Fortnight Year on year
Bank 25,42,467 2607404 2019175 2.55% 29.13
credit(Cr)
Depos- 3442138 3469359 2858033 .79% 21.39
its(Cr)
Credit/de .7386 .7515 .7064 - -
posit
VOLUME 1, ISSUE 1

12
 As on October 10, let us analyze the liquidity position of the banks from a birds’ eye view

We can infer the following from the above data

We see an increase of bank credit by 29.19% and 2.55 % on YOY and fortnight basis while the de-
posit has increased by 21.39% and .79% on YOY and fortnight basis. These points towards those
banks were facing a liquidity problem as the rate of increase of credit was not negated by the rate of
increase on deposits.
The credit deposit ratio as on September 26, 2008 was .7386 while on 10 October it was .7515 and
last year it was .7064 clearly indicating that the industry was facing the liquidity crunch.
……..the people

Scrutiny of the borrowing and lending activity in the call money market

banks banks diff primary dealers

borrowed lent borrowers lenders BB/BL PB/PL

1-Aug 11185 11475 -290 347 57 0.974728 6.087719
15-Aug 12401 12661 -260 313 53 0.979464 5.90566
29-Aug 11321 11692 -371 411 41 0.968269 10.02439
12-Sep 11812 12389 -577 587 10 0.953426 58.7
26-Sep 10756 11206 -450 472 22 0.959843 21.45455
10-Oct 12427 12909 -482 510 28 0.962662 18.21429
BL=amounts banks lent PB=no of primary borrowers
towards

BB= amount banks borrowed PL=no. of primary lenders

Let us analyze the situation from august till 10 October.

We see that the difference between the amount borrowed and lent grew from 290 to 577 from
1 Aug to 12 Sept and declined to 450 in 26 Sept but increased to 482 in 10 October. However in percent-
age terms the difference (or the deficit) grew by 66%.

In the ratio terms , borrowed / lent increased till 15 august declined to .9534 in 12 September ,
V O L U M E 1 , Ibut
S S U however
E 1 the credit crunch took its toll on the banks and the ratio increased to .9626 forcing RBI to take
some remedial action.

13
 We can correlate the above explanation with the ratio of
no. of borrowers and lenders where we see that the ratio moves in
opposite direction of the BB/BL. The ratio increased from 6.08 to
58.7 from 1 august to 12 September (when it peaked); however it
declined to 18.21 on 10 October on account of increase in no. of
lenders from 10 to 28 in the relevant period. But when we compare
the ratio from august to October in increased above 200% indicat-
ing that borrowers increased from 347 to 510( increase of 47%) ,
while lenders decreased from 57 to 28 ( i.e. a decrease of over 50%)
forcing RBI to take remedial action.
……..the people

More bad news!

In October, RBI comes up with the data stating that incremental credit rose to 10.4% in the first
half of this fiscal against 4.4% in the corresponding period last year while incremental deposits declined
to 8.4% from 9.3%.

Infrastructure and consumer companies top the “top 50” liquidity challenges companies

Sectors Crunch companies

towards

Infrastructure 17
Consumer 13
Healthcare 4
Real-estate 3
Chemicals 2
Oil gas 2
Media 2
Technology 1
Power 1
Others 5

Infrastructure and consumer companies whose lifeline is credit face severe crunch as 17 infra com-
panies and 13 consumer companies were identified who accepted that they were facing severe credit
crunch.
All the above were the indicators that the RBI needs to take extra ordinary measures to control a
collapse of the banking system and save companies by making reforms ensuring better credit functioning.

Events watch

Let us have a look at the series of events that were worth keeping track of, the reactions of the government
V O L U M E 1 , Iand
S S U ERBI
1 and what happened as a result of the actions (discussed later).

14
 Oct Events
10 ICICI Bank said that it is facing no liquidity crisis and has as much as Rs 12,000 crore li-
quidity even in international markets and the bank does not use rupee liquidity to fund the
growth of its international operations and says NPA is zero even in UK where the expo-
sure is worth 4700 crore
13 ICICI script plunges 17% amidst the fear that the bank is facing severe liquidity
crunch.

15 Reserve Bank of India said it will conduct the special fixed rate 14-day repo facility
every day, as the auction for a notified amount of Rs 20,000 crore at 9 per cent to
meet the liquidity requirements of mutual funds.
……..the people

RBI decides to raise the cap on deposit insurance from 1 lac to 2 lac to ensure con-
fidence of the depositors in deposits
The Reserve Bank said it would shortly issue Rs 100 denomination notes
16 Government identified 14 commercial banks (11 public and 3 private) and will help
them to raise over 5000 crore to increase the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) to
12%. These banks include Central Bank of India, Allahabad Bank, Uco Bank, Indian
Overseas Bank, ING Vysya Bank , Vijaya Bank , Bank of Maharashtra.
However none of these banks had CAR less than 9% which is the prescribed limit as
per the Basel 2 norms
Hike in NRI deposits by 50 BPS to counter the out flux of the Forex reserves due to
FII selling in Stocks
17 Banks put SMEs on edge while lending amidst liquidity crisis. SMEs account for 40% of
the exports and if the credit line dries up then their business prospects will take a hit and will
further add to the declining foreign reserves( on account FIIs selling in sensex ).
towards

19 Government has also asked the RBI to release Rs 25,000 crore to banks and finan-
cial institutions immediately against their outgo under debt waiver scheme.
No bank guarantee of LOC from foreign banks is accepted by domestic banks as
they fear the failure of foreign banks would further acute their liquidity problems

20 Reserve Bank has lowered the repo rate by 1 per cent to 8% from 9% earlier,
under LAF. The decision was aimed at improving the liquidity position in the coun-
try.
The apex bank has opened a special repo window of Rs 20,000 crore for mutual
fund industry to help them meet their liquidity needs and overcome redemption
pressure.

22 Government promises full support and help to Public Sector Banks(PSBs) to im-
prove CAR to 12%.
Federal bank to review the acquisition of catholic Syrian bank amidst liquidity crisis.
It will review the valuation of the bank as well as source of funds.

23 Banks ask RBI to ease reserve requirements else they will stop lending to infrastruc-
ture companies.
ICICI Bank had raised the interest rate for new home loans from 12 per cent to
13 per cent earlier this month, but it kept unchanged the benchmark rates, including
its Floating Reference Rate (FRR) for home and other consumer loans.

24 The Reserve Bank of India shall conduct a special fixed rate term repo at 8 per cent per an-
VOLUME 1, ISSUE 1
num against eligible securities for Rs.11,200 crore on October 24, 2008, due for reversal on
November 7, 2008, with a view to enabling banks to meet the liquidity requirements of mu-
tual funds
15
 Micro scan of the government action and the reaction of the money market

Oct 10 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct 20

Amount injected - 55440 66305 59090 10100 8640 -
(Rs. Crore)
Call money rates 14.25 8.5 8.6 8.5 5.65 5.5 3.5
(min %)
Call money rates 22 10.05 10.15 10.5 7.1 7 7
(max %)

RBI auctioned REPO under LAF which resulted in pulling the overall call money rates down.
……..the people

This was a result of injecting liquidity which in turn forced banks to bring the call money rates down. Let
us see the movements of the call money rates from Oct 10 to Oct 17.

Oct 10
Rates reach as high as 22% while the minimum was 14.25%.
Oct 13
RBI auctions repo and injects 55440 Crore that tames the call money rates to a maximum of 10.05 and
minimum to as low as 8.5%
towards

Oct 14
Further RBI injects 66305 cr. Via REPO auctions but we see a marginal increase call money rates
Oct 15
Further 59090 cr. Is injected but there is no major decline in the rates on the same day
Oct 16
However when a cumulative 180835 cr. Is injected in 3 days, the call money rates calm
down further and hovered in the range of 5.65 to 7.1
Same day further 10100Crore is injected.

Oct 17
Seeing that call money rates has declined significantly RBI auctioned just 8640Crore and rates seemed to
be stable between 5.5 and 7%.
Oct 20
Maximum rate remained at 7% while minimum rate declined to 3.5%
Thus a total of 199525 cr. was injected in just 5 days time.
VOLUME 1, ISSUE 1

16
 What is the status of the money market as on 24 October 2008?

Rates in % Volume (rs crore)

This week Standard de- Previous This week Previous
viation week week
Call money 4.5-7.0 .65 7.0-10.0 15767.26 13974.21
Repo 4.5-7.0 .49 6.5-9.5 60756.13 52446.9
91 day T-Bill 6.19-7.45 .23 6.5-8.56 797.38 957.72
6.25-7.55 .28 7.25-9.05 1715.64 756.10
364 day T-bill
……..the people

182 day T-bill 6.9-8.0 .24 4.18-8.64 349.56 551.65

GOI securi- 6.99-9.3 .65 6.94-10.07 8435.12 5970.94
ties
State govern- 7.87-8.35 .11 7.88-8.43 442.43 297.27
ment

From the above data we can infer the following:

Decline in the minimum and maximum rates of the call money rates when compared with the previ-
ous week. The minimum rates have fallen from 7.0 to 4.5 while the maximum rates have fallen
from 10.0 to 7.0. The volume in call money rates has seen an increase of 12.83% as compared to
towards

the previous week.

Decline in the minimum and maximum rates in repo. The minimum rate has decreased from 6.5 to
4.5 while the maximum rate has declined from 9.5 to 7.0. the volume increase in this instrument as
compared to the previous week is 15.84%
91 day and 364 day t-bill has witnessed a decline in the both minimum and maximum rates while
the overall rates for the 182 day t-bill has increased. The volume of these instruments has registered
a decline of 16.71%, increase of 126%, and 182 day T-bill has registered a decline of 36.66%.
The minimum rates for the GOI securities has registered an increase of .05 %( which is marginal
given the volatility) while the maximum rate has shown a decline of .14%. The increase in volume
is 2465 Crore (or 41.29%).
When comes to volatility in rates the most volatile instrument is call money rates and GOI securi-
ties which is .65 followed by repo. The least volatile was state government securities which
was .11.

Impact of the liquidity crisis on the Banking Index:

24-october 2008 1 week 1 month 1 year

Bse –Bankex 4649.87 -16.17 -32.25 -53.15

We see that the Bankex index closed at 4649.87 and gave a negative return in 1 week, 1 month
and 1 year of 16.17%, 32.25% and 53.15% respectively. There was a selling both from FIIs and retail in-
VOLUME 1, ISSUE 1
vestors. FIIs faced liquidity problems at home while retail investors feared safety of investments.

,
17
 Top turnover for the banking sectors for the week ended 24 October 200

ICICI bank Bank of India SBI HDFC Axis

Bank
Turnover(Cr) 3445 621 3358 2046 1696
Return (%) -22.22 -24.83 -18.02 -6.08 -13.98

We can clearly see from the above that the most traded securities in the week ended 24 October
2008 eroded the wealth of the shareholders.
……..the people

ICICI bank, the largest private sector bank gave a negative return of over 22% while SBI, largest
commercial bank, gave a negative return of over 18%. Other stocks too gave negative returns which in-
cluded the heavy weight HDFC bank also.

Do we need to worry?
The answer is no. as we have seen that cut in repo and other measures has improved the credit system but
our fingers are still crossed. RBI will continue to closely monitor the activities and take remedial action
when ever required as we have seen one , On 26 October 2008, RBI allowed 7% savings bonds -2002
6.5% savings bonds 2003, and 8% savings bonds 2003 schemes to be pledged while taking loans. These
bonds were, before reform, were illiquid and could not be used for raising money despite being classified
towards

as sovereign debt.

Where does our banking system stand as compared to other countries?

Let us see the Loan Deposit Ratio of some of the countries and compare with India.

LDR
Country Country LDR%
%
Indonesia 0.62 Chile 0.99 When we see the loan to deposit ratios we see that
China 0.68 Poland 1.03 it is most favorable to Indonesia followed by China
south Af- and India. The figure for these top 3 countries were
India 0.74 1.09 .62, .68 and .74 respectively. For a layman to un-
rica
Turkey 0.83 Hungary 1.3 derstand the figure we can say that for every
Israel 0.87 Korea 1.3 100rupee received , Indian banks have granted 74
Kazakh- rupees of loans indicating that 24% of the amounts
Thailand 0.88 1.3 received are still with the banks indicating better
stan
Columbia 0.89 Brazil 1.36 liquidity position when compared to lowest 3
countries Russia , Ukraine and brazil whose figure
Vietnam 0.91 Ukraine 1.37
was 1.82 , 1.37 and 1.36 respectively.Thus Indian
Mexico 0.93 Russia 1.82 banks are relatively safe when compared to other
Pakistan 0.99 - - countries.

Contributed by: Vivek Ganatra

VOLUME 1, ISSUE 1

18
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……..the people
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Sources:
The Economics Times, Business Line, Business Standard, Financial Express, Financial Times, Wall
Street Journal, DNA, The Deccan Chronicle, The Times of India, The Hindu, The Telegraph, Business
Week, Business World, Business Today, India Today, The Economist, Forbes, Bloomberg, Reuters, In-
vestopedia.com, Wikipedia.com, Moneycontrol.com, Vccircle.com, yahoofinance.com.
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