Agri Weekly

A Weekly Review and Outlook Report on Agriculture commodities Edible oil complex futures prices in last week Open High Low 2390 2430 2380 Soy bean June 634 647 632 Soy oil June 2813 2857 2805 RM seed June Spot price in last week Open 2357.0 Soy bean 630.00 Soy oil RM seed Soy complex
180000

23 May 2011
Close Net Change % Change 2387 -0.5 0.0 640 8.1 1.3 2828 18.0 0.6
Close % Change 2368.0 1.15 638.30 1.89 #VALUE!

High 2393.0 639.15 0.00

Low 2357.0 630.00 0.00

D e r iv a tiv e A n a la y s is - S o y b e a n N C D E X
2500 2450 2400 2350 2300 2250
11 1 1 1 1 1 1 01 /2 11 11 1 11 01 01 01 01 01 0 20 20 20 20 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 23 5/ 01 1 1

Prospects of higher US soy acreage are likely to fuel a bearish trend. However unfavorable weather conditions in overseas market which may delay the sowing are expected to limit sharp fall. Reports of higher stocks may also affect the edible oil complex. USDA revised upward its 2010-11 ending stocks forecast to 170 million from 140 million. Global oilseed production for 2011-12 is projected at a record 459.2 million tonnes, up 2.2 percent from 2010-11. Global soybean production is projected to increase less than 1 percent to 263.3 million tons. The Argentina crop is projected at 53 million tons, up 3.5 million from 2010-11.The Brazil soybean crop is projected at 72.5 million tons, down 0.5 million from the projected record 2010/-11. China soybean production is projected at 14.8 million tons, down 0.4 million from 2010-11 due to lower area and yields. The total daily arrivals of mustard seed increased by 20000 bags to 6.70 lakh bags in major mandies

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Derivative Analysis - Soy oil N C D EX

160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 11 11 11 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 20 20 20 20 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 01 1
2860.0 2840.0 200000 150000 100000 50000 0
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Agri Weekly
A Weekly Review and Outlook Report on Agriculture commodities Spices futures price movement in last week
Pe ppe r June Je e ra June Turm e ric June Chilli Jun Ope n 30210 14920 8426 9228 High 30770 15488 8450 9276 Low 29512 14885 7950 8630 Close t Cha nge (Rs) % Cha nge Ne 30585 356.0 1.2 15380 467.0 3.1 8240 -248.0 -3.0 8860 -404 -4.5

Spot prices in last week

Pe ppe r J e e ra T u rm e ri c Open H ig h Low C lo N e t C h a n g e % C h a n g e se 2 9 4 1 4 . 3 2 9 6 6 1 .6 2 9 3 1 3 . 3 2 9 5 2 8 . 6 1 5 5 .3 0.98 1 4 9 3 7 .5 0 1 4 9 4 3 . 8 0 1 4 8 5 5 . 0 0 1 4 9 4 3 .8 0 -7 4 . 5 0 -0 . 1 0 8 6 3 0 .4 5 8 6 3 0 . 4 5 8 4 3 0 . 0 0 8 4 3 0 .0 0 360.00 -4 . 1 0

Pepper The pepper market extended their gain last week on strong demand due to tight supply in the domestic and global markets. The daily arrivals in the spot markets were reported at around 20 tons in Kochi mandi. Meanwhile the demand stood at around 40-45 tons. The spot price of garbled pepper traded in the range of Rs.2920029500 and ungarbled pepper quoted at Rs.28400-28700 respectively. As per report available Karnataka was offering ungarbled pepper below Rs.28000. In the international market Indian origin was offered at $7000 per tonne while Vietnam priced at around $6200 per tonne. As per the release from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, Vietnam exported nearly 42,000 tons of pepper valued $213 million during the period of January to April 2011. Exports are down by 5.30 percent in volume terms meanwhile in value terms surged by 57.50 percent over the same period last year. Vietnam exported nearly 16,000 tons of pepper with value of $86 million in the month of April 2011. Jeera Adequate stocks followed by supply pressure may limit the rise in prices. In Unjha spot market the price of new crop were trading down at around Rs.11350-14500. The total fresh arrivals increased to around 17000 against 12000 bags on previous day. The demand was reported at around 16000 bags. Subdued overseas demand on expectation of better crop from Syria and Turkey may also add bearish sentiments. Jeera production is estimated at 25-26 lakh bags in 2010-2011 against 25 lakh bags last year Turmeric Subdued demand from retailers and stockists amid adequate stocks are likely to put pressure on the prices. Increased arrivals from the major producing areas may also pull the market down. Meanwhile the farmers are holding their stocks to sell at higher price. Accordingly a fluctuation can be expected in near future. Daily around 13000 bags were arrived in major spot market against 12000 bags on previous day. As per trade source, turmeric production in 2011 is estimated

D erivative Analysis - Pepper N C D EX

18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0
25 /2 0 27 11 /2 4/ 0 1 29 1 /2 01 5/ 2/ 1 20 5/ 1 1 4/ 2 5/ 01 1 6/ 20 5/ 1 1 9/ 2 5/ 01 11 1 /2 5/ 0 1 13 1 /2 5/ 0 1 16 1 / 5/ 20 1 18 1 /2 5/ 0 1 20 1 /2 5/ 0 1 23 1 /2 01 1 4/

32000 30000 28000 26000 24000 22000 20000

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Derivative Analysis - Jeera NCDEX

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4/ 25 /1 4/ 1 27 / 4/ 11 29 /1 1 5/ 2/ 11 5/ 4/ 11 5/ 6/ 11 5/ 9/ 11 5/ 11 /1 5/ 1 13 /1 5/ 1 16 /1 5/ 1 18 /1 5/ 1 20 /1 5/ 1 23 /1 1
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Derivative Analysis - Turmeric NCDEX

8900 8800 8700 8600 8500 8400 8300 8200 8100 8000

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Agri Weekly
A Weekly Review and Outlook Report on Agriculture commodities Futures prices in last week Open 2455 Chana June 3284 Guar seed June 2740 Sugar June Spot prices in last week Open 2343.3 Chana 3163 Guar seed Chana Buying at lower level due to pick up in domestic demand may support the market trend. Marginal decline in daily arrivals were reported and is likely to support the market. Latest available report shows that sowing of kharif pulses has begun in different parts of the country. However higher production estimates and sufficient stocks in spot markets are also likely to weigh. Chana production is estimated at 73 lakh tons in 2010-2011 rabi season against 74 lakh tons, higher compared to normal production of 55-60 lakh tons.
High 2531 3332 2747
High 2410.4 3262

Low 2445 3189 2665

Low 2343.3 3163

Close Net Change (Rs) % Change 2525 71.0 2.9 3312 29.0 0.9 2683 -56.0 -2.0
Close % Change 2409.2 3.0586 3254 2.53

Derivative Analysis - Chana NCDEX

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Guar seed The market traded bearish on weak demand due to prevailing higher price. Reports of increased supply in the spot markets are also pressurizing the prices. As per reports from Rajasthan farm department, output for guar seed is estimated at 149 lakh bags against 45 lakh the previous year. The exports are expected to rise to 2.6-2.8 lakh tons compared to 2.1 lakh tons last year. Agriculture and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority reported Indias guargum exports for the period AprilDecember 2010 surged 82 percent to 279,197 tons as compared to 153,404 tons recorded during the same period last year. However strong export demand for guar gum may restrict sharp fall

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Derivative Analysis - Guar seed NCDEX

450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 3350 3300 3250 3200 3150 3100 3050 3000 2950

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Derivative Analysis - Sugar NCDEX

30000 25000 20000 2820 2800 2780 2760 2740 2720 2700 2680 2660 2640 2620 2600

Sugar
Sufficient stocks to meet current demand kept the market steady for the last few days. Supply pressure on free sale quota for the month of May is likely to lead the prices further weak. Government has decided to make available 19.63 lakh tonne of sugar (levy sugar of 2.13 lakh tonne and nonlevy sugar of 17.50 lakh tonne) for the month of May 2011.

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Agri Weekly
A Weekly Review and Outlook Report on Agriculture commodities

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This research report is prepared by JRG research. The report is only for the purpose of use by the recipient and should not be circulated or copied without the prior permission of the company. The views expressed in this report are based on the analysis of data and information obtained from sources we consider reliable. However, the company takes no responsibility for the accuracy and completeness of any such data or information. Investors may note that neither the company nor any persons, associates or any subsidiaries accept any responsibility for any potential loss arising as a result of use of the data, information or views expressed in this report. The recipient is requested to seek independent expert advice prior to acting on this report.