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January 2012

Skill based investing g


Hedge funds and other alternative investments: a discussion
Adri Guha

Confidential presentation materials. Not for unauthorized distribution. Reproduction without express written permission is strictly prohibited. January 2012 32

Skill based investing g


Advanced Portfolio Management (APM) is a specialty asset management company that constructs and manages customized portfolios of hedge funds and other financial instruments for endowments, foundations, pension funds, insurance companies, and other financial institutions in North America, Europe, and Asia. Each APM product is designed to complement, enhance, and complete an existing asset allocation and investment p g p p g portfolio. All p products are managed to realize the clients unique investment objectives and risk parameters. APM products are currently utilized as active management overlays, alpha transport programs, completion funds, and stand-alone multi-manager hedge fund investments. APM's investment process integrates experienced qualitative investment judgment with rigorous analytical structure. The professionals at APM have over 100 years of combined investment and capital markets experience providing a comprehensive understanding of the potential profit opportunities and the accompanying risks of active investing. To complement this experience and judgment APM has constructed a state-of-the-art analytical platform which comprises: judgment, (i) manager-level risk and return attribution analysis and risk budgeting, (ii) non-linear Monte Carlo simulation processes driven by forward-looking expectations of return and risk, and (iii) portfolio optimization and rebalancing in a shortfall risk framework. By integrating experienced qualitative insights with robust analytical methods, APM delivers superior risk-adjusted returns with negligible correlation or beta to the major market factors or benchmarks. APM is a Registered Investment Advisor with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Advanced Portfolio Management LLC 1330 Avenue of the Americas, 36th Floor New York, New York 10019 +1 212 838 4700 1 info@apmcap.com www.apmcap.com
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Some of the performance data is unaudited and has been computed by APM based on unaudited figures. The data set forth in this presentation is based on information from sources believed to be reliable but has not been independently verified. Performance is shown net of all fees and expenses, including investment expenses, and professional fees. The index information is included merely to show the general trend in markets in the periods indicated and is not intended to imply that the portfolio was similar to the indices either in composition or element of risk. This document does not constitute an offer for sale of interests which may be made only by means of a private placement memorandum to investors satisfying the applicable investor eligibility criteria. This document contains confidential information which is not for unauthorized reproduction or distribution. Reproduction or distribution without express written permission is strictly prohibited. Copyright 2012 by Advanced Portfolio Management LLC. All rights reserved.

January 2012

33

Table of Contents

Description and definitions


Passive investments Skill based active management Hedge funds 1 3 4

Manager analysis
Attributes Performance analysis Comparative example 1 Comparative example 2 Terms analysis 8 9 14 16 18

Hedge fund strategies


Classifications Equity long-short Credit-linked Event-driven Fixed income arbitrage Volatility Tactical Other 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

20

Financial crisis
Alternative investments 28

28

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Description and definitions p

Passive investments Characteristics


Asset classes of an asset allocation policy portfolio Available as index funds or derivatives Asset classes offer, in the long-term, an expected return premium for bearing th b i the systematic risk of the asset class t ti i k f th t l Systematic returns and systematic risk Minimal difference between the returns of the index fund or derivative on paper and as an investment

January 2012

Description and definitions p

Passive investments Beta


= Correlation (between investment and stock index) * [Sta da d ev at o (investment) [Standard Deviation ( vest e t) / Standard Deviation (stock index)] Origin in the Capital Asset Pricing Model

R = Rf + ( Rm Rf )
Measure of systematic risk y Meant to capture stable, long-term relationships

January 2012

Description and definitions p

Skill based active management Alpha g p

R = Rf + ( Rm Rf ) R Rf = ( Rm Rf )
R Rf = ( Rm Rf ) +
Terminology from regression analysis

= X +
Measure of idiosyncratic risk and return Ways to generate alpha - Market timing - Security selection

January 2012

Description and definitions p

Hedge funds Characteristics g


Two important characteristics that consistently apply to hedge funds - they are subject to minimal investment constraints - they charge high fees Hedge funds have the ability to invest in a wide range of securities, to hold negative positions in securities through short sales or derivatives, and to borrow or use other forms of leverage Hedge funds charge fees that are much higher than those charged by most other asset managers

January 2012

Description and definitions p

Hedge funds Skill based active management g g


Given their investment flexibility, hedge funds can be constructed to p provide a pure play on active management or skill-based investing p p y g g Given their investment flexibility, hedge funds should be able to maximize the profit opportunities available from skill-based investment opportunities Given their flexibility and fee structure, hedge funds should attract the best skill-based managers

January 2012

Description and definitions p

Hedge funds Inefficient source of passive returns g p


Given their fee structure, hedge funds provide an extremely inefficient sou ce of passive source o pass ve asset c ass returns class etu s Index funds will dominate hedge funds as providers of passive asset class returns Index funds will dominate in terms of fees, costs, liquidity, and transparency

January 2012

Description and definitions p

Hedge funds Source of skill based returns g


Hedge funds should offer superior, consistent skill based returns from alpha Sources of risk not specifically related to the generation of alpha should be minimized Hedge funds h ld t b H d f d should not be a source of passive returns f i t Alpha, not beta

January 2012

Manager analysis g y

Attributes
Performance analysis Returns analysis Quality of returns analysis:
- Ri k dj t d returns Risk-adjusted t - Alpha content - Downside analysis

Terms analysis:
- Liquidity - Fees

January 2012

Manager analysis g y

Performance analysis Historical manager returns y g


Manager
Period: Oct 2002 to Sep 2010

Equity Oriented Annualized Monthly Returns


Period Standard Deviation Sharpe Ratio

L/S Equity

Manager/Benchmark Manager Altvest Long Short Equity Index HFR Equity Hedge Index Tremont Long Short Equity Index Average US 1M T-Bill ill Barclays Aggregate SSB Non-US WGBI Merrill High Yield Russell 1000 Value Russell 1000 Growth Russell 2000 MSCI World Ex-USA

1Y Return

5Y Return

Return

1.7% 7.1% 6.6 5.8 6.5 0.1% 7.9 4.9 17.3 10.2 13.8 15.6 6.0

8.3% 5.1% 4.1 6.0 5.1 2.3% 6.1 7.5 8.9 1.3 3.7 4.3 4.7

6.5% 8.1% 7.1 8.2 7.8 2.0% 5.3 8.2 11.2 8.1 7.7 11.3 11.7

8.7% 7.8% 8.7 7.8 8.1 0.5% 3.8 8.8 11.3 16.3 15.9 20.7 18.5

0.5 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.7 N/A / 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5

Comparative historical analysis of individual manager performance

January 2012

Manager analysis g y

Performance analysis Factor-based risk and return attribution y


R Square Period Return Standard Correl vs. Deviation Portfolio Beta vs. Portfolio Factor Weighting t Return Risk*

Investment Class

0.29

Statistics Attribution Attribution

Manager Alpha US 1M T Bill T-Bill Barclays Aggregate SSB Non-US WGBI Merrill High Yield Russell 1000 Value Russell 1000 Growth Russell 2000 MSCI World ExUSA

6.5% -2.0 20 5.3 8.2 11.2 8.1 7.7 11.3 11.7

8.7% -0.5 05 3.8 8.8 11.3 16.3 15.9 20.7 18.5

1.00 -0.00 0 00 -0.19 -0.06 -0.03 -0.11 -0.03 -0.06 0.10

1.00 --0.01 0 01 -0.42 -0.06 -0.02 -0.06 -0.02 -0.03 0.05

-0.54 ---0.34 -0.11 -0.09 -0.62 -0.03 0.03 0.60

-1.70 --1.14 -0.80 -0.76 -3.88 -0.23 0.32 5.02

6.5% 4.8 2.0 20 -1.1 -0.7 -0.8 -3.7 -0.2 0.3 5.9

100.0% 70.3 -2.5 25 2.8 0.6 0.4 14.1 0.2 -0.5 14.6

Factor analysis is applied to isolate alpha and precisely attribute both risk and return

* Normalized January 2012 10

Manager analysis g y

Performance analysis Drawdown and period analysis y p y


Historical Statistics Period
Compounded Return a u awdow Maximum Drawdown From To Length of Drawdown Trough to Recovery Monthly Average Return Monthly Standard Deviation Best Month Worst M th W t Month Skewness Serial Correlation Ann. Avg. Alpha + Residual Return Annualized Slope Average Monthly Alpha 62.9% -7.4% 7. % May-06 Dec-06 8 6 0.5% 2.5% 7.7% -5.9% 5 9% 0.22 -0.10 4.8% 0.1% 0.4%

5Year
47.8% -7.4% 7. % May-06 Dec-06 8 6 0.7% 3.0% 7.7% -5.9% 5 9% 0.13 -0.09 6.3%

1Year
1.4% -5.1% 5. % May-10 Sep-10 5 1 0.1% 2.3% 5.8% -3.2% 3 2% 1.24 -0.11 8.8%

Manager Twelve months ending Sep-09 Sep-08 Sep-07 Sep-06


17.6% -3.4% 3. % Mar-09 May-09 3 1 1.4% 3.2% 6.6% -3.2% 3 2% 0.14 -0.02 14.9% 1.0% -7.1% 7. % Jan-08 Jun-08 6 2 0.1% 3.6% 6.8% 5.9% 5 9% 0.27 -0.22 2.7% 12.4% -5.1% 5. % Jul-07 3 1.0% 2.6% 4.2% -5.0% 5 0% -1.14 -0.26 2.7% 9.2% -7.4% 7. % May-06 5 0.8% 3.2% 7.7% -5.4% 5 4% 0.23 0.02 2.6%

End of Period End of Period No Recovery No Recovery

Drawdown analysis and alpha trends are important dimensions of manager performance f

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Apr-01 -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% Sep-02

Alpha Analysis (monthly)

Average Alpha + Residual

Average g Alpha

Regression g Line

Jan-04

May-05

Oct-06

Feb-08

Jul-09

Nov-10

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Manager analysis g y

Performance analysis Outlier analysis y y


Correlation and Beta Analysis
US 1M Barclays SSB Non- Merrill Russell T-Bill Aggregate US WGBI High Yield 1000 Value Russell 1000 Growth Russell 2000 MSCI World ExUSA

Correlation Beta

Period 0.00 P i d 0 00 5Year -0.02 1Year 0.22 Period -0.01 5Year -0.43 1Year 101.12

-0.19 0 19 -0.34 -0.37 -0.42 -0.95 -0.95

-0.06 0 06 -0.18 0.17 -0.06 -0.21 0.13

-0.03 0 03 -0.05 0.70 -0.02 -0.04 0.83

-0.11 0 11 -0.10 0.63 -0.06 -0.05 0.26

-0.03 0 03 0.03 0.68 -0.02 0.02 0.27

-0.06 0 06 -0.03 0.64 -0.03 -0.01 0.20

0.10 0 10 0.13 0.72 0.05 0.06 0.28

Worst and Best Performing Months


Manager US 1M Barclays SSB Non- Merrill Russell T-Bill Aggregate US WGBI High Yield 1000 Value Russell 1000 Growth Russell 2000 MSCI World ExUSA

Worst and best monthly returns are examined to allow detailed investigation into outlying performance f

Jan-08 y May-06 Aug-07 Apr-03 Sep-09 Mar-06 Jun-08 May-09 Sep-10 S 10 Oct-08

-5.9% -5.4 -5.0 -3.5 -3.2 7.7% 6.8 6.6 5.8 58 5.3

0.2% 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.4% 0.2 0.0 0.0 00 0.0

1.7% -0.1 1.2 0.8 1.1 -1.0% -0.1 0.7 0.1 01 -2.4

4.0% 2.3 1.6 1.4 2.7 -1.2% 0.4 4.6 3.3 33 -2.5

-1.4% -0.1 1.1 5.8 6.0 0.6% -2.7 7.1 3.0 30 -16.3

-4.0% -2.5 1.1 8.8 3.9 1.4% -9.6 6.2 7.8 78 -17.3

-7.8% -3.4 1.6 7.4 4.3 1.5% -7.2 5.0 10.6 10 6 -17.6

-6.8% -5.6 2.3 9.5 5.8 4.8% -7.7 3.0 12.5 12 5 -20.8

-9.0% -3.8 -1.4 9.6 4.1 3.2% -7.8 12.6 9.6 96 -20.8

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Manager analysis g y

Performance analysis Quartile analysis y y


Quartile Analysis of Index Returns (from worst to best, monthly)
Manager Barclays Aggregate Manager SSB Non-US WGBI Manager Merrill High Yield M ill Hi h Yi ld Manager Russell 1000 Value Manager Russell 1000 Growth Manager Russell 2000 Manager MSCI World Ex-USA Average Return Standard Deviation Average Return Standard Deviation Average Return Standard Deviation Average Return Standard Deviation Average Return Standard Deviation Average Return Standard Deviation Average Return Standard Deviation Average Return Standard Deviation Average Return Standard Deviation Average Return Standard Deviation Average Return Standard Deviation Average Return Standard Deviation Average Return Standard Deviation Average Return Standard Deviation

I
1.2% 2.7 -1.0 0.8 08 0.6% 2.3 -2.5 1.2 0.1% 3.0 -2.7 2.7 3.6 0.5% 3.1 -5.5 4.0 0.2% 3.1 -5.2 3.7 0.4% 3.0 -7.1 3.9 0.0% 2.9 -5.7 4.7

II
0.8% 2.7 0.2 0.2 02 1.0% 2.6 -0.2 0.5 0.8% 2.9 0.7 0.4 0.5% 2.7 0.1 1.0 0.8% 1.8 -0.3 0.9 0.7% 2.0 0.0 1.4 0.0% 2.2 -0.1 1.1

III
0.6% 2.4 0.8 0.2 02 0.2% 2.4 1.6 0.5 0.4% 1.3 1.5 0.2 0.4% 1.6 2.1 0.6 0.7% 2.6 2.2 0.8 0.4% 2.4 3.2 0.9 1.1% 2.4 2.9 0.7

IV
-0.4% 2.1 1.7 0.7 07 0.4% 2.9 3.9 1.4 0.9% 2.6 4.2 2.3 0.8% 2.6 5.9 2.0 0.4% 2.6 5.8 2.0 0.6% 2.7 7.7 2.6 1.1% 2.4 6.8 2.5

Worst-to-best quartile analysis of index returns versus the manager provide id additional intuition

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Manager analysis g y

Comparative example 1 Historical manager returns p p g


Manager
Period: Oct 2002 to Sep 2010

Equity Oriented Annualized Monthly Returns


Period Standard Deviation Sharpe Ratio

L/S Equity

Manager/Benchmark Manager 1 Altvest Long Short q y Equity Index HFR Equity Hedge Index Tremont Long Short Equity Index Average US 1M T-Bill Barclays Aggregate SSB Non-US WGBI Merrill High Yield Russell 1000 Value Russell 1000 Growth Russell 2000 MSCI World Ex-USA

Manager 1 has a Sharpe ratio of 1.1 11

1Y Return

5Y Return

Return

4.2% 7.1% 11.6 5.8 8.2 0.1% 7.9 4.9 17.3 10.2 13.8 13 8 15.6 6.0

9.1% 5.1% 9.5 6.0 6.9 2.3% 6.1 7.5 8.9 1.3 3.7 37 4.3 4.7

9.0% 8.1% 14.7 8.2 10.3 2.0% 5.3 8.2 11.2 8.1 7.7 77 11.3 11.7

6.4% 7.8% 12.2 7.8 9.3 0.5% 3.8 8.8 11.3 16.3 15.9 15 9 20.7 18.5

1.1 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 N/A 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.4 04 0.4 0.5
January 2012 14

Manager analysis g y

Comparative example 1 Factor-based risk and return attribution p p


R Square Period Return Standard Correl vs. Deviation Portfolio Beta vs. Portfolio Factor Weighting t Return Risk*

Investment Class

0.24

Statistics Attribution Attribution

Manager 1 Alpha US 1M T Bill T-Bill Barclays Aggregate SSB Non-US WGBI Merrill High Yield Russell 1000 Value Russell 1000 Growth Russell 2000 MSCI World ExUSA

9.0% -2.0 20 5.3 8.2 11.2 8.1 7.7 11.3 11.7

6.4% -0.5 05 3.8 8.8 11.3 16.3 15.9 20.7 18.5

1.00 -0.07 0 07 0.18 0.33 0.04 0.17 0.03 0.04 0.21

1.00 -0.89 0 89 0.29 0.23 0.02 0.07 0.01 0.01 0.07

0.09 ---0.04 0.13 -0.07 0.29 -0.27 -0.10 0.15

-2.90 --0.20 1.28 -0.80 2.42 -2.39 -1.33 1.65

9.0% 6.2 2.0 20 -0.1 0.8 -0.6 1.8 -1.6 -1.0 1.5

100.0% 75.0 0.5 05 -0.5 5.8 -0.4 13.2 -1.7 -1.1 9.1

75% of risk and 69% of returns of Manager 1 is attributed to alpha

* Normalized

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Manager analysis g y

Comparative example 2 Historical manager returns p p g


Manager
Period: May 2004 to Sep 2010

Equity Oriented Annualized Monthly Returns


Period Standard Deviation Sharpe Ratio

L/S Equity

Manager/Benchmark Manager 2 Altvest Long Short q y Equity Index HFR Equity Hedge Index Tremont Long Short Equity Index Average US 1M T-Bill Barclays Aggregate SSB Non-US WGBI Merrill High Yield Russell 1000 Value Russell 1000 Growth Russell 2000 MSCI World Ex-USA

1Y Return

5Y Return

Return

9.9% 7.1% 11.6 5.8 8.2 0.1% 7.9 4.9 17.3 10.2 13.8 15.6 6.0

10.4% 5.1% 9.5 6.0 6.9 2.3% 6.1 7.5 8.9 1.3 3.7 4.3 4.7

13.1% 6.5% 11.5 7.0 8.3 2.2% 5.7 7.1 8.7 4.2 4.3 6.6 8.0

21.3% 8.4% 13.0 8.5 9.9 0.5% 3.5 8.6 12.1 16.9 16.4 21.4 19.5

0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 N/A 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3

Manager 2, in comparison, has a Sharpe ratio less than half of Manager 1

January 2012

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Manager analysis g y

Comparative example 2 Factor-based risk and return attribution p p


R Square Period Return Standard Correl vs. Deviation Portfolio Beta vs. Portfolio Factor Weighting t Return Risk*

Investment Class

0.75

Statistics Attribution Attribution

Manager 2 Alpha US 1M T Bill T-Bill Barclays Aggregate SSB Non-US WGBI Merrill High Yield Russell 1000 Value Russell 1000 Growth Russell 2000 MSCI World ExUSA

13.1% -2.2 22 5.7 7.1 8.7 4.2 4.3 6.6 8.0

21.3% -0.5 05 3.5 8.6 12.1 16.9 16.4 21.4 19.5

1.00 -0.03 0 03 0.15 0.31 0.62 0.56 0.63 0.52 0.79

1.00 -1.10 1 10 0.87 0.75 1.09 0.70 0.82 0.52 0.86

0.77 --0.14 -0.15 0.16 -1.01 0.19 -0.11 1.54

-0.71 -0.26 -0.66 0.86 -4.02 0.78 -0.60 7.98

13.1% 3.3 2.2 22 0.5 -0.7 1.0 -2.0 0.4 -0.5 8.8

100.0% 25.1 -2.3 23 0.3 -1.8 5.7 -43.0 9.3 -5.5 112.2

Only 25% of its risk and return is attributable to alpha

* Normalized January 2012 17

Manager analysis g y

Terms analysis Hedge funds y g


Liquidity - Redemption frequency - Notice period - Lock-ups (soft or hard) ( ) - Gates (individual or fund-level) Fees - Management fees: amount - Performance fees: amount, hurdle and frequency of charge - High water-marks

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Manager analysis g y

Terms analysis Private equity y q y


Liquidity - Investment period - Harvesting period - Extensions Fees - Management fees: amount and committed capital - Performance fees: amount, preferred return, catch-up, and cashflow fl payment sequence

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Hedge fund strategies g g

Classifications
Equity long-short Credit-linked Event-driven Fixed income arbitrage Volatility y Tactical Other
January 2012 20

Hedge fund strategies g g

Equity Long-Short Examples q y g p

Multi-sector or sector focused Market-neutral, sector neutral Quantitative market neutral Statistical arbitrage g

January 2012

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Hedge fund strategies g g

Credit-linked Examples p

Long-short credit Capital structure arbitrage Cash vs CDS Direct lending g

January 2012

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Hedge fund strategies g g

Event-driven Examples p

Risk-arbitrage Distressed including control situations Corporate actions


- genuine capital structure rationalization - asset-side restructurings through asset divestitures, spin-offs, and split-offs - efficiency-enhancing restructuring at the operating level

January 2012

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Hedge fund strategies g g

Fixed Income arbitrage Examples g p

Sovereign spreads Swap spreads Off-the-run vs on-the-run Curve trades

January 2012

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Hedge fund strategies g g

Volatility Examples y p

Volatility arbitrage (skew and calendar) Long gamma Dispersion trades Convertible arbitrage g

January 2012

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Hedge fund strategies g g

Tactical Examples p

Macro Trend-following Tactical asset allocation

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Hedge fund strategies g g

Other Examples p

Emerging markets Commodities Multi-strategy Other

January 2012

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Financial crisis

Alternative investments Experiences and lessons p


Performance:
Better than broad market indices, cumulative return from April 2008 March 2009: - HFRX Equal Weighted Strategies Index -20% vs S&P 500 -38%

Hedge funds:
Leverage: amount and terms Liquidity: - A t and fund level-liquidity Asset d f d l l li idit - Gates, suspensions and side-pockets - Secondary market liquidity avenues Fees: Mark to market - Mark-to-market issues - High watermark and modified high watermark - Claw-backs

Private equity: Liquidity and capital calls


January 2012 28

Financial crisis

Alternative investments Opportunities from the crisis pp


Residential mortgages Bank capital Corporate debt

Whole loans RMBS

Regulatory capital arbitrage

Dislocated leveraged loans High yield debt Dislocated convertibles

Corporate restructuring

Out of court restructuring g Bankruptcy and workouts Restructured debt into equity

Commercial mortgages

Middle market opportunities

Emerging market distressed assets

Whole loans CMBS

Dislocated secondary loans Rescue financing Opportunistic corporate lending l di

Highly selective emerging market distressed debt assets

January 2012

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Firm Profile

Firm Profile Advanced Portfolio Management (APM) is a specialty asset management company that constructs and manages customized portfolios of hedge funds and other financial instruments for endowments, foundations, pension funds, insurance companies, and other financial institutions in North America, Europe, and Asia. Each APM product is designed to complement, enhance, and complete an existing asset allocation and investment portfolio. All products are managed to realize the clients unique investment objectives and risk parameters. APM products are currently utilized as active management overlays, alpha transport programs, completion funds, and stand-alone multi-manager hedge fund investments. APM's investment process integrates experienced qualitative investment judgment with rigorous analytical s uc u e. e p o ess o s structure. The professionals at APM have ove 100 ye s o co b ed investment and c p ve over years of combined ves e d capital markets e pe e ce e s experience providing a comprehensive understanding of the potential profit opportunities and the accompanying risks of active investing. To complement this experience and judgment, APM has constructed a state-of-the-art analytical platform which comprises: (i) manager-level risk and return attribution analysis and risk budgeting, (ii) non-linear Monte Carlo simulation processes driven by forward-looking expectations of return and risk, and (iii) portfolio optimization and rebalancing in a shortfall risk framework. By integrating experienced qualitative insights with robust analytical methods, APM delivers superior riskadjusted returns with negligible correlation or beta to the major market factors or benchmarks. APM is a Registered Investment Advisor with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

January 2012

30

Skill based investing g

Advanced Portfolio Management LLC 1330 Avenue of the Americas, 36th Floor New York, New York 10019 +1 212 838 4700 1 info@apmcap.com www.apmcap.com
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The performance data in this presentation is unaudited and has been computed by APM based on unaudited figures. The data set forth in this presentation is based on information from sources believed to be reliable but has not been independently verified. Performance is shown net of all fees and expenses, including investment expenses, and professional fees. The index information is included merely to show the general trend in markets in the periods indicated and is not intended to imply that the portfolio was similar to the indices either in composition or element of risk. This document does not constitute an offer for sale of interests which may be made only by means of a private placement memorandum to investors satisfying the applicable investor eligibility criteria. This document contains confidential information which is not for unauthorized reproduction or distribution. Reproduction or distribution without express written permission is strictly prohibited. Copyright 2012 by Advanced Portfolio Management LLC. All rights reserved.

January 2012

31

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