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INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

Collateral Loans Auto Finance


INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
SUBMITTED TO PROF. K.G. SAHADEVAN 21st February, 2012 Mitul Surana PGP27164 Section C

Table of Contents
List of Figures ........................................................................................................................................ iii Declaration ............................................................................................................................................. iv 1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 3. 4. Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................ 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 2 Background ..................................................................................................................................... 3 Cars and Utility Vehicles ............................................................................................................ 3 Commercial vehicles ................................................................................................................... 4 Two-wheelers .............................................................................................................................. 5 Porters Five Forces Analysis ........................................................................................................... 7 4.1 Bargaining Power of Buyers ......................................................................................................... 7 4.2 Bargaining Power of Suppliers ..................................................................................................... 7 4.3 Threat of New Entrants ................................................................................................................. 8 4.4 Threat of Substitutes ..................................................................................................................... 9 4.5 Degree of Rivalry .......................................................................................................................... 9 5. 6. 7. Recommendations ......................................................................................................................... 10 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................... 10 Bibliography ................................................................................................................................. 11

List of Figures
Figure 1 : Evolution of Cars and Utility Vehicles Finance Industry in India ......................................... 3 Figure 2 : Evolution of Commercial Vehicles Finance Industry in India ............................................... 4 Figure 3 : Evolution of Two Wheelers Finance Industry in India .......................................................... 6 Figure 4 : Factors influencing Buyer Power in Collateral Auto Loans market in India ......................... 7 Figure 5 : Factors influencing New Entrants in Collateral Auto Loans market in India ........................ 8

Declaration
I, Mitul Surana, hereby declare that the project report titled Collateral Loans Auto Finance: Industry Analysis is a record of authentic work carried out by me during the period from January, 2012 to February, 2012 in fulfillment of the course on International Business Environment. No part of the report has been copied from any published or unpublished source.

Name: Mitul Surana Date: 21st February, 2012

Signature

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1. Executive Summary
The collateral auto finance market is one of the fast growing segments in India. A majority of vehicles two-wheelers, passenger cars and commercial vehicles that are sold in India are bought by consumers with automobile loans. About 75 per cent of cars in India are bought through loans, whereas the figure for commercial vehicles is as high as 90 percent. This report attempts to analyze the competitive environment prevalent in the collateral loans (auto finance) sector in India. Porters Five Forces model has been used to analyze the attractiveness of the industry. The report first discusses the evolution of the auto finance industry in the three segments viz. commercial vehicles, cars and utility vehicles and two wheelers. With the liberalization of the Indian economy in 1991, a number of sectors were opened up for foreign investment. It is found that although the auto finance sector was also liberalized, the public sector companies dominated the market. Many private banks and NBFCs entered the market thereby increasing competition. However due to the slowdown in 2008, many players exited the market or reduced exposure. The bargaining power of buyers is considered to be moderate due to the presence of large number of players, large number of buyers, switching costs, and price sensitivity of buyers to interest rates. The bargaining power of suppliers in the auto finance loans industry is moderate as the risk of forward integration by the suppliers (software providers) is minimal. However, in a service industry like auto finance there is no direct supplier. As few realistic substitutes exist in this industry, the threat of substitutes is weak. Due to high market growth potential, recent reduction in interest rates by the Central Bank, and regulatory reforms relating to NBFCs the likelihood of new entrants is assessed as strong. Moreover, there is growing trend towards forward integration by vehicle manufacturers many of whom have started their own financial services or tied up with major banks to provide auto loans. The level of competition between the existing players is intense as these firms compete mainly on interest rates. The sector is characterized by a number of equally balanced competitors with similar resources at their disposal. This increases the level of competition within the industry. Overall, it can be concluded that the auto finance sector in India is attractive. A firm with adequate resources at its disposal can take advantage of the growth potential of this industry. If the regulations relating to NBFCs such as capital adequacy ratios, etc are further relaxed, this would make the industry even more attractive. The report recommends adoption of better risk management practices and extension of finance to better customer profiles to reduce credit risk and defaults. It also recommends better marketing and sound distribution network to push sales of the underlying asset. The low financial penetration in the rural sector is another factor that adds to the growth potential of the industry.

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2. Introduction
A collateral loan is a loan secured by some asset. The asset is handed over to the lender if the borrower cannot repay the loan as agreed. By using a collateral loan, the lender takes less risk, and it may be easier for the borrower to get funding. In Collateral Loan Valuation, generally, the lender offers less than the value of the pledged asset. Some assets might be heavily discounted. For example, a lender might only recognize 50% of the investment portfolio for a collateral loan. That way, they improve their chances of getting all their money back in case the investments lose value. As with any segment of asset finance, for vehicle financing, the starting point is the underlying asset. Once the price of the underlying asset is known, the financier, depending upon the customer's profile, determines the extent of financing. The financier quotes the interest rate, which is called the rack rate or the GIRC, and the customer gives the loan-repayment tenure. The combination of the two factors decides the equated monthly installment (EMI) to be paid by the customer. However, this EMI is adjusted for the subventions/discounts the customer receives while purchasing the asset. For the financier, the EMI received and the brokerage paid to dealers determines his gross interest. This interest rate, when adjusted for cost of funds, operating expenses and cash losses after recovery, indicates the net yield to financier. As in many other markets, a majority of vehicles two-wheelers, passenger cars and commercial vehicles that are sold in India are bought by consumers with automobile loans. About 75 per cent of cars in India are bought through loans, whereas the figure for commercial vehicles is as high as 90 percent. International auto manufacturers, including Volkswagen, Mercedes, BMW and Toyota all with significant operations in India have decided to set up their own financing arms here to provide a fillip to sales. The auto-loan business in India was worth around US$6.7 billion in 2007, but the finance crunch led to a sharp decline in funds available for the business. Indian auto companies such as Tata Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra and Bajaj Auto have become more aggressive in lending through their finance arms. Traditionally, the auto loan segment in India has been dominated by public and private sector banks. Market leaders Maruti and Hyundai have all these years depended on public sector bank funding of consumer auto loans. International banks and NBFCs too have had a modest share of the business. The Reserve Bank of India, the countrys central bank, has been slashing interest rates to encourage the off-take of auto and consumer loans. This is likely to trigger growth in the auto sector. Indian banks now have adequate funding and many have started lending to consumers, encouraging them to go in for a new model, or upgrade to a higher capacity vehicle. In fact, public sector banks have been moving aggressively in the auto loans segment, offering to fund up to 85 per cent of the value of a car (as against 70 to 75 per cent being offered by private banks). Strong growth in underlying asset sales, improvement in finance penetration and increase in the average ticket size are the primary factors driving growth in the vehicle finance market. This report aims to analyze the attractiveness of the auto finance sector in India. For the purpose of determining the attractiveness, we first look at how the industry has evolved over the years. Specifically, we look at the policies that have shaped the industry over the years. We then ascertain the attractiveness of the industry using the Porters five forces model.

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3. Background
There are three segments in automobile financing industry: Cars and Utility Vehicle Finance Industry Commercial Vehicle Finance Industry Two Wheeler Finance Industry The evolution of the three auto finance industries is described below. 1. Cars and Utility Vehicles

Late 1980s : Launch of auto loans by organised auto financers

Early 1990s: Auto financing market begins to grow

1998-2003: Entry of banks leads to stiff competition

2003-2006: Competition intensifies with lower interest rates

2008-2011: Lower interest rates improve market share of public sector banks

Figure 1 : Evolution of Cars and Utility Vehicles Finance Industry in India Late 1980s: Launch of 'auto loans' by organised auto financiers During this period, NBFCs were mainly involved in leasing activity. In 1987, Citibank was the first organised player to offer auto loans. Taking cue from Citibank, other NBFCs too entered the auto finance market. Early 1990s: Auto financing market begins to grow New models such as Maruti 1000 and Esteem were launched by the country's largest car manufacturer, Maruti Udyog Ltd (MUL). Vehicles were overbooked; auto finance companies made mass purchases and sold them at a premium of Rs 20,000-30,000 each. Leading players in the auto finance market were NBFCs such as Anagram, Apple Finance and Gujarat Lease Finance. NBFCs helped in increasing acceptability of finance and developing the market. 1998 to 2003: Entry of banks leads to stiff competition Post 2000, the entry of banks intensified competition in the auto financing market. The concept of reverse subvention was born when financiers started offering subventions (dealer payouts) to increase business volumes. In 2002, MUL entered into tie-ups with eight auto finance companies to finance its cars under Maruti Finance. The emergence of private sector banks as strong players signaled a shift in the auto finance market, which had until then been dominated by NBFCs.

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2003 to 2006: Competition intensifies with interest rates reaching the bottom Auto financiers became more aggressive by cutting interest rates and extending tenures. Public sector banks also became aggressive in this sector. By end of 2005-06, banks completely dominated the auto finance market. They turned the tables on NBFCs to capture around 65 per cent of the Rs 401 billion market. Competition reached its peak with interest rates bottoming out. Companies like Standard Chartered, ABN Amro, Ford Credit and Countrywide Finance exited the market. 2008 to 2011: Lower interest rates improve market share of public sector banks The liquidity crunch resulting from the economic crisis caused a number of players to exit the auto loan market or reduce their exposure significantly (like ICICI, HSBC, Citibank and Standard Chartered), due to large-scale defaults. However, in 2009-10, liquidity conditions improved with revival of the economy, leading to reduction in interest rates. SBI introduced an aggressive interest rate scheme. Following this, many other players followed suit. As a result, the market share of PSU banks increased, led by SBI. HDFC remains the largest private sector financier. During 2010-11, players in the industry witnessed high growth primarily led by the increase in demand for cars. BMW launched its captive financing arm, BMW Financial Services, to support the sales of the parent company BMW in India. Volkswagen has received the licence from RBI to establish an NBFC, Volkswagen Financial Services. 2. Commercial vehicles

Pre 1997: Emergence of organised Commercial Vehical Finance 1998-2001: Consolidation in the NBFC segment

Post 2001: Entry of private and foreign banks increase competition

2007-2011: Low demand and global downturn affect commercial vehicle industry

Figure 2 : Evolution of Commercial Vehicles Finance Industry in India Pre-1997: Emergence of organised commercial vehicle financing During 1995-1997, the market was highly fragmented, with NBFCs dominating the commercial vehicle finance market. Commercial vehicle finance market was estimated at around Rs 80 billion, with sales of around 162,000 units. NBFCs enjoyed a majority share in the commercial vehicle finance market, followed by PSU banks, co-operative banks and the unorganised sector. 1998 to 2001: Consolidation in the NBFC segment The downturn in demand for commercial vehicles forced many small NBFCs such as 20th Century, GLFL and Anagram to either close down or significantly curtail their operations.

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A few strong players such as Sundaram Finance, Ashok Leyland Finance, Citicorp Finance, GE Capital and others survived. The share of foreign NBFCs rose as they purchased the assets of weaker domestic NBFCs. Domestic NBFCs faced problems on account of: Sharp decline in demand for commercial vehicles during 1997-98 to 2000-01 Reduction in interest spread Higher NPAs during downturn Changes in regulations for operating an NBFC Lower capitalisation of NBFCs. Post - 2001: Entry of private and foreign banks increase competition The market became less fragmented, as weaker NBFCs exited the market due to increasing pressure on margins. Private banks capitalised on the above opportunity and entered the market in a big way. ICICI Bank entered the commercial vehicle finance market in 2001-02, followed by HDFC Bank in 2002-03. 2003 to 2006: Competition intensifies with a sharp decline in interest rates Organised players started focusing on the used vehicle and refinance markets, which had traditionally been serviced by the unorganised sector. In 2003-04, the total organized commercial vehicle finance market was at Rs 141 billion. NBFCs such as Tata Finance, Sundaram Finance, Citicorp Finance and Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company accounted for about 34 per cent of the market. Banks like ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank emerged as strong players in the private bank segment, capturing about 57 per cent of the market. SBI, which increased focus on this market from 2003-04, other public sector and cooperative banks accounted for the remaining 9 per cent. To increase their market share, players required a sound origination and distribution network for both new and used CV finance. 2007 to 2011: Low demand and global downturn affect commercial vehicle industry During 2008-09, commercial vehicle was the worst-hit segment in the automobile sector on account of reduction in freight availability and unfavourable credit environment. Rising defaults led to deterioration in asset quality. Government took several initiatives to spur demand. These included reduction in excise duty and service tax by 2 per cent and special credit line for NBFCs. Shriram Transport acquired Rs 12 billion worth of commercial vehicle and construction equipment assets from GE Capital's transport finance business. Tata Motors tied up with many PSU banks (like Andhra Bank, Vijaya Bank, State Bank of Hyderabad) to finance its commercial vehicles. Ashok Leyland signed MoU with United Bank of India and Central Bank of India for financing its commercial vehicles. An improving economic scenario and an increase in transporters' profitability led to high growth for players in the CV industry. 3. Two-wheelers Pre-2000: Manufacturer-promoted financier market NBFCs promoted by manufacturers catered to the two-wheeler market. Companies were mainly set up to boost sales as well as provide finance to dealership networks. Major players were Bajaj Auto Finance, Kinetic Finance and Harita Finance (TVS promoted). Centurion Bank kick-started its twowheeler finance operations in 1998, followed by Tata Finance, which entered the two-wheeler financing business in May 1999.

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Pre 2000: Manufacturer promoted financier market

2000-2003: Banks and Nonmanufacturer promoted NBFCs are attracted Post 2003: PSU banks increase focus 2007-08: Players exit due to market contraction 2008-11: Market undergoes consolidation

Figure 3 : Evolution of Two Wheelers Finance Industry in India 2000 to 2003: Two-wheeler financing attracts banks and non-manufacturer promoted NBFCs MNC-promoted NBFCs such as GE Countrywide and CitiFinancial (erstwhile Associates) started catering to this market by offering high payouts, consequently intensifying competition. Post 2003: NBFCs take a re-look at business strategy, public sector banks increase focus Due to aggressive marketing efforts and flexibility in credit norms, the quality of assets accumulated by players was lower than the desired norms. The market witnessed some established players like Cholamandalam Finance, Tata Finance and other MNC finance companies revaluating their business strategies, initially by curtailing their operations in the two-wheeler finance market and then by exiting it altogether due to high credit losses. Public sector banks such as State Bank of India, Andhra Bank, Union Bank, Bank of Baroda and Bank of Maharashtra increase their focus in this market by forming tie-ups with manufacturers. 2007-2008: Players exit due to market contraction This period witnessed a major upheaval in two-wheeler finance, with many financiers exiting the market due to rising defaults and collection issues. Many players like GE Money, CitiFinancial and Centurion Bank of Punjab (before its merger with HDFC Bank) exited the two-wheeler finance business. ICICI Bank discontinued two-wheeler loans at the dealer's end in August 2008 and decided to reorient the business through branches instead. 2008 to 2011: Market undergoes consolidation During 2008-09, two-wheeler sales dropped on account of economic slowdown, and unfavorable credit environment. Many players exited the market or reduced exposure significantly, namely ICICI, Citibank and GE. Rising delinquencies along with change in repossession norms by RBI led to stringent financing norms. HDFC is the only biggest player among banks in the industry to finance two-wheelers. NBFCs hold the second position. Mahindra & Mahindra entered the two-wheeler segment with the acquisition of Kinetic. The 26-year old relationship between the Hero Group and Japan's Honda Motor Corporation ended during 2010-11.

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4. Porters Five Forces Analysis


4.1 Bargaining Power of Buyers Factors Influencing Buyer Power in Collateral Auto Loans Market in India ( 0 - weak, 5 - strong)
Buyer Size 5 4 No of Players 3 2 1 0 Price Sensitivity

Backward Integration

Undifferntiated Product

Switching Cost

Figure 4 : Factors influencing Buyer Power in Collateral Auto Loans market in India There are many individual customers in this market which diminishes buyer power, as the impact of losing one customer is not overly significant for a major bank or financial institution. The expansive consumer base means that losing one customer would not be a major financial hit. Borrowers characteristics, such as age, occupation, job position and education can likewise reduce buyer power in terms of what type of loan is available and at what rate. Switching costs can be higher with auto loans due to exit fees and other charges, although this may be outweighed in the long term by finding a cheaper one. The presence of many players in the market, on the other hand, increases the buyer power. Existence of many players with little differentiation in product offerings is beneficial for the buyers. Moreover, the wealth of information available on the internet has increased the buyer power to a large extent. This results in firms competing with each other on price. This increases the buyer power considerably. Also, the increasing defaults in loan repayments can be a problem for auto loan financers in spite of the loans being collateralized. Therefore, overall, the bargaining power of buyers can be considered to be moderate. 4.2 Bargaining Power of Suppliers In a service industry like auto finance, there is no direct supplier of raw material. However the supply of supporting facilities like software technology can give the same analogy. Lenders such as banks require complex and secure in-house IT infrastructure to securely store and process a large amount of

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customer information. Companies are often reliant on one supplier, usually large companies like Microsoft or IBM. A disincentive to switch is the fact that employers are reluctant to spend the money on training staff on new systems. Substantial switching costs may be due to contractual obligations or the cost of finding a suitable replacement. This increases the supplier power. In this market there is little chance that lenders would backward integrate into creating their own IT systems and this further strengthens the position of suppliers. A factor weakening supplier power in this market is the unlikelihood of suppliers integrated forwards. There are many non banking players in this collateral auto loans market like Bajaj Auto Finance, Magma FinCorp Ltd, Sundaram Finance Ltd, Mahindra & Mahindra Financial services Ltd, Tata Motors Finance Ltd, Cholamandalam Finance Company Ltd, etc. For these firms, banks can be considered as suppliers. The presence of a large number of banks decreases the supplier power. However the suppliers ability to forward integrate increases the supplier power considerably. Therefore, overall, the supplier power in the auto finance loans market is moderate. 4.3 Threat of New Entrants Factors Influencing New Entrants in Collateralised Auto Loans Market in India ( 0 - weak, 5 - strong)
Weak Brands 5 4 Undifferentiated product 3 2 1 0 Distribution Accesible

Market Growth

Regulation

Low fixed cost

Figure 5 : Factors influencing New Entrants in Collateral Auto Loans market in India As India increasingly modernizes and prospers, a larger consumer market for collateral loans has been established which means that despite the global recession the auto finance market has maintained growth. This growth will entice new entrants to emerge especially if demand for auto (cars, commercial vehicles, and two wheelers) persists. Higher underlying asset (auto) sales have been a key driver for growth in the market. The market has become more enticing for new lenders after 1995 policy reforms allowed foreign lenders into auto loans area after Indias accession to the WTO. The success of the reforms has translated into acceleration in auto loan disbursements in India.

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Entry to the market in the form of a fully-fledged bank or similar financial institution requires substantial amounts of capital, to establish a branch network and brand identity, and also to comply with the strict capital adequacy requirements. However, it is possible to enter the market as an intermediary, offering consumers credit that is ultimately sourced by a third-party institution. This is an easier mode of entry. Improved risk management and presence of collaterals have reduced the incidence of defaults. Although operating expenses and credit losses have reduced, they continue to be high enough to act as a deterrent for financiers to enter the market. Also, the fact that there is not much differentiation in loan offers, interest rate being the major price sensitive factor, it is easier for entry. Overall, the likelihood of new entrants is assessed as strong. 4.4 Threat of Substitutes The recent crisis of various financial institutions along with the current economic climate and predictions of further downturn are undermining confidence in market players. The threat of doubledip recession and the impact of non-performing loans to banks bottom lines are likely to result in more cautious lending practices and also reduced demand, since consumers uncertain about job security will be less likely to take on debt. These factors can negatively affect the financial condition of banks. Such a situation in the auto loans market may push consumers to look for alternatives. However, few realistic substitutes exist. Thus the threat of substitutes can be considered to be weak in this industry. 4.5 Degree of Rivalry The primary sources of auto finance lending (banks and financial institutions) are all fairly similar in service portfolios and business models, although players try to differentiate themselves by offering competitive rates. The recession in late 2007 caused some major players to withdraw from the stage, reducing the number of strong players. The auto finance sector in India consists of three separate groups: the commercial vehicles finance industry, the cars and utility vehicles finance industry and the two wheelers finance industry. As the products that each of these groups offer do not vary greatly, the companies compete fiercely on price and marketing. The steady demand for these services, caused by increasing underlying asset sales, higher ticket size on account of higher value sales, and improvement in finance penetration has increased rivalry. The sector is characterized by a number of equally balanced competitors with similar resources at their disposal. This increases the level of competition within the industry. HDFC Bank is the market leader in the private segment. However, all the other players in the segment are equally matched and if we include the public sector lenders like SBI, the bargaining power of firms reduces considerably. Overall, the intensity of rivalry in the auto finance sector in India can be considered to be strong.

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5. Recommendations
The collateral loans for auto finance sector in India is expected to continue growing at a sustained pace for the next few years. As seen in this report, the industry is moderately attractive and large auto companies can reap the rewards of entering this industry by forward integrating and starting their own financing services to boost sales. Having a finance arm helps since it is flexible unlike banks, and helps in trades and swaps. Even after RBIs initiatives, finance penetration in India continues to be low due to higher operating expenses and rising incidents of defaults. The firms need to adopt improved risk management practices to handle defaults. Lenders need to examine and verify customer profiles before extending finance. Players can adopt schemes such as Direct Cash Collection (DCC) systems where cash is collected every month on a door-to-door basis and loans are given to people who do not have access to formal payment options like a bank account to boost financing in the market. Moreover, the players can use discounting for collateral loans to reduce the risk of defaults. There needs to be better marketing efforts and to increase their market share, players require a sound origination and distribution network for both new and used commercial vehicle finance. Greater distribution reach will push up the sales of passenger cars, as a large number of households will be added to the target population. Typically, these households have the potential to buy a car, but defer the decision due to lack of sales and service infrastructure. Enhanced penetration of financing services can improve sales of passenger cars across all segments. For auto finance industry to grow, it is dependent on the growth of auto industry. Long-term drivers for the auto industry are infrastructure development, structural changes and government initiatives. These would enhance auto sales which in turn would enhance auto loans disbursements. The administrative costs associated with auto finance, which include commission to agents, companys administrative expenses, etc, are high. Because of these costs, players are forced to maintain high interest rates which are unaffordable to the poorer sections. The government should intervene and take measures to maintain affordable interest rates.

6. Conclusion
This report was aimed at analyzing the auto loans sector in India and to determine the attractiveness of the industry. It was found that the sector has a number of factors that favour new and existing firms entering the industry. These include lack of substitutes, lack of buyer power, high market growth etc. The sector is expected to grow at a CAGR of 22%, which makes it favourable for banks, NBFCs and vehicle manufacturers to enter the industry. The low penetration of financial services is another factor that adds to the future growth potential of this industry. Finally, a set of recommendations were made to enhance penetration and reduce the credit risks and defaults.

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7. Bibliography
Amanda Questor (2005). Car Title Lending. Centre for Responsible Lending and the Consumer Federation of America. Crisil (2011). Auto Finance Industry : Outlook. Mumbai : Crisil Research. Auto Finance. Website: http://www.ibef.org/download/Auto_Finance_150409.pdf R. Srinivasan (2004). Understanding and analyzing the industry environment. Pg 11-21. Collateral Loans (2011). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secured_loan