Technical Research | March 19, 2012

Daily Technical Report Sensex (17466) / NIFTY (5318)

On Friday, our Benchmark indices opened on a pessimistic note and traded with extreme volatility throughout the session to close marginally above the 5300 mark. On the sectoral front, Oil & Gas, Power and Consumer Goods were among the major looser, whereas FMCG ended on a gaining side. The advance to decline ratio was strongly in favor of declining counters. (A=1044 D=1801) (Source www.bseindia.com)

Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart

Formation:
The 200-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 20day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) have now shifted to 17164 / 5163 and 17607 / 5350, respectively. The 20-Week EMA is placed at 17150 / 5188 level. The Daily momentum oscillators and 3 & 8 EMA are

negatively poised. Indices have closed around the 61.8% Fibonacci

Source: Falcon

retracement level of the rise from 17008 to 18041 / 5171 to 5500.

Trading strategy:
As mentioned in the previous weekly report, volatility surged on the back of major domestic events. Further, strong selling pressure on the Budget day dragged indices significantly lower to test 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the rise from 17008 to 18041 / 5171 to 5500. At this juncture, the momentum oscillators and 3 & 8 EMA on daily chart are negatively poised. Hence, in the coming week, if indices sustain below Fridays low of 17426 / 5305, then we may witness further selling pressure. In this scenario, markets may drift lower to test 17239 17008 / 5244 5171 levels. On the upside, 18040 / 5500 level is likely to act as resistance for the Indices. A sustainable move beyond this level may push indices higher to test swing high of 18524 / 5630.

Actionable points:
View Resistance Levels Support Levels Neutral 5353 - 5387 5305 - 5244

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Technical Research | March 19, 2012

Bank Nifty Outlook - (10391)

On Friday, in line with our benchmark indices, Bank Nifty too traded with extreme volatility throughout the session. The Bearish Engulfing candle stick pattern mentioned in our previous report has been confirmed as the index closed below 10556 levels. The negative crossover in RSI momentum oscillator mentioned in our previous report is still intact. Thus, if Bank Nifty sustains below Fridays low of 10348 then we may drift towards 10169 10073 levels. On the upside 10536 10700 levels are likely to act as resistance in coming trading session. Exhibit 2: Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Actionable points:
View Expected Target Resistance Levels Negative Below 10348 10169 10073 10536 10700
Source: Falcon

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Technical Research | March 19, 2012

Positive Bias:
20 Day EMA 683.5 Positive Above 685 Expected Target 715

Stock Name M&M

CMP 678

5 Day EMA 669

Remarks View will change below 655

Negative Bias:
20 Day EMA 274 Negative Below 282.5 Expected Target 270

Stock Name Tata Motors

CMP 286.7

5 Day EMA 285.6

Remarks View will change above 292

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Technical Research | March 19, 2012

Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty 50 Stocks

SCRIPS SENSEX NIFTY BANKNIFTY ACC AMBUJACEM AXISBANK BAJAJ-AUTO BHARTIARTL BHEL BPCL CAIRN CIPLA COALINDIA DLF DRREDDY GAIL HCLTECH HDFC HDFCBANK HEROMOTOCO HINDALCO HINDUNILVR ICICIBANK IDFC INFY ITC JINDALSTEL JPASSOCIAT KOTAKBANK LT M&M MARUTI NTPC ONGC PNB POWERGRID RANBAXY RCOM RELIANCE RELINFRA RPOWER SAIL SBIN SESAGOA SIEMENS STER SUNPHARMA SUZLON TATAMOTORS TATAPOWER TATASTEEL TCS WIPRO S2 17,144 5,216 10,040 1,304 159 1,157 1,689 322 254 648 323 294 333 189 1,646 354 483 654 493 1,898 135 380 884 138 2,809 200 544 73 515 1,271 628 1,291 165 256 915 104 403 89 749 608 125 92 2,126 191 731 109 501 26 274 101 435 1,147 421 S1 17,305 5,267 10,216 1,322 164 1,187 1,705 325 264 656 334 298 337 193 1,663 360 490 660 500 1,927 138 385 901 142 2,837 208 560 76 527 1,296 653 1,333 169 265 939 106 407 90 761 620 128 94 2,177 195 751 112 523 27 280 103 445 1,158 425 PIVOT 17,588 5,356 10,524 1,339 167 1,233 1,731 330 279 669 352 304 343 197 1,686 370 498 669 513 1,955 141 388 927 147 2,875 216 582 80 547 1,339 675 1,381 175 277 980 109 413 93 779 640 132 97 2,266 201 783 116 558 29 289 107 459 1,169 430 R1 17,749 5,407 10,700 1,356 171 1,263 1,748 333 289 677 364 308 347 201 1,703 376 505 675 520 1,984 144 394 944 150 2,903 225 597 82 559 1,363 700 1,423 179 285 1,004 111 417 95 791 652 135 99 2,317 205 804 118 581 30 295 110 469 1,180 434 R2 18,032 5,497 11,008 1,373 174 1,309 1,773 338 305 690 382 315 353 206 1,726 385 513 683 532 2,012 148 397 971 155 2,941 233 619 86 579 1,406 723 1,471 185 298 1,044 114 424 97 809 672 140 103 2,406 212 836 122 615 31 304 114 483 1,191 440

Technical Research Team

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Technical Research | March 19, 2012 Technical Report

RESEARCH TEAM
Shardul Kulkarni Sameet Chavan Sacchitanand Uttekar Mehul Kothari Ankur Lakhotia Head - Technicals Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst

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