ANZ RESEARCH

AUSTRALIAN ECONOMICS AUSTRALIAN ECONOMICS WEEKLY

AN APRIL RBA RATE CUT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION 30 MARCH 2012 INSIDE
Economic Update The Week Ahead In Focus Weekly Data Wrap Data previews Data Calendar Forecasts 1 1 2 5 6 9 15 Government positioning ahead of the May federal budget well and truly began this week, with Treasurer Wayne Swan warning of tough fiscal conditions in a speech to the Australian Business Economists. Treasurer Swan said revenues were lower than expected in Novembers mid-year budget review, due largely to lower company tax revenue. A sustained recovery in global growth was also not likely to lead to a similar recovery in revenue growth, he said, in large part because the huge level of mining investment underway is increasing depreciation deductions for mining companies. But the government remains firmly committed to a surplus in 201213, arguing that a surplus is economically imperative in an economy expected to grow around trend, with low unemployment and a massive investment pipeline. It also sends a strong message of confidence to investors across the world in uncertain times. The Treasurer signalled further substantial savings in the May budget in order to achieve a surplus, including through cutting and cancelling existing programs. Otherwise, it was a relatively quiet week, with no major data released. Private sector credit data was slightly stronger at +0.4% m/m in February. This reflected higher growth in business, housing and personal credit, which were supported by greater stability in global financial markets and recent RBA rate cuts. ABS job vacancies rose 0.7% q/q in the February quarter, following a fall of 3.4% q/q in the November quarter, while in trend terms the series continues to weaken following its peak in early 2011. The RBA also published its bi-annual Financial Stability Review, which showed that household financial stress measures remain low and that mortgage arrears rates, while still higher than a few years ago, continue to fall. In our In Focus article this week, we argue that the probability of an RBA rate cut in April is higher than currently priced by the market. Recent communications from the RBA suggest the economy is not growing as quickly as it expected three to six months ago. It also appears less certain that the strength in the resources sector will be enough to fully outweigh weakness in sectors under pressure from the high AUD and soft demand. Given the evolution of the RBAs thinking, we are more confident of our forecast for a 25bp cut by the May board meeting.

CONTRIBUTORS
Warren Hogan Chief Economist +61 2 9227 1562 Warren.Hogan@anz.com Ivan Colhoun Head of Australian Economics and Property Research +61 2 9227 1780 Ivan.Colhoun@anz.com Julie Toth Senior Economist +61 3 9273 6252 Julie Toth@anz.com Craig Michaels Senior Economist +61 3 9273 1112 Craig.Michaels@anz.com Justin Fabo Senior Economist +61 2 9227 1646 Justin.Fabo@anz.com Cherelle Murphy Senior Economist +61 2 6222 8220 Cherelle.Murphy@anz.com David Cannington Economist +61 3 9273 4274 David.Cannington@anz.com Andrew McManus Economist +61 2 9227 1742 Andrew.McManus@anz.com Dylan Eades Economist +61 3 9273 2708 Dylan.Eades@anz.com Savita Singh Analyst Savita.Singh2@anz.com David Xu Analyst +61 3 9273 3049 David.Xu@anz.com

THE TWO WEEKS AHEAD

In Australia, the key event next week will be the RBA Board meeting on Tuesday. Data on building approvals (ANZ: 1.1% m/m; market: 0.5% m/m), retail trade (ANZ: 0.3% m/m; market: 0.2% m/m) and the trade balance (ANZ: AUD1.3bn; market: AUD1.1bn) will be released. After the Easter break, ANZ job ads and the NAB business survey are due, as well as employment data (ANZ: +5k; market: not yet avail.). In New Zealand, the Fonterra global dairy auction will be the key economic event. In China, following the manufacturing PMI data (ANZ: 51.2; market: 50.6) over the weekend, trade, industrial production and GDP data will be released after Easter. In Europe, euro-zone finance ministers are due to meet tonight. Next week, the ECB and BoE decide on monetary policy. Manufacturing PMI and, the following week, industrial production data are also due. In the United States, ISM manufacturing and non-farm payrolls data will be key next week. We receive the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting, and there are a host of Fed speakers over the coming fortnight. ***PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE WILL BE NO AUSTRALIAN ECONOMICS WEEKLY PUBLISHED NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE EASTER HOLIDAY***

Australian Economics Weekly / 30 March 2012 / 2 of 17

IN FOCUS

Ivan Colhoun Head of Australian Economics and Property Research +61 32 9227 1780 Ivan.Colhoun@anz.com

CAN THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY AFFORD TO GROW MORE QUICKLY? MIGHT THE RESERVE BANK REDUCE INTEREST RATES IN APRIL?
Recent communications by the Reserve Bank suggest the market is under-estimating the chances of a reduction in the official cash at next weeks RBA Board meeting (see Figure 1), notwithstanding the recent increase in pricing by the market. The Minutes for March, together with a recent speech by the Governor contain subtle but important evolutions in the Banks thinking. This raises our confidence in ANZs forecast of a rate cut by May and suggests a move at the April meeting next week cannot be ruled out. FIGURE 1. MARKET PRICING AS OF 30 MARCH 2012

Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13

Monthly change (bps) -0.10 -0.13 -0.13 -0.11 -0.08 -0.06 -0.03 -0.03 -0.05 -0.01 -0.02 0.00 0.00

Cumulative change (bps) -0.10 -0.23 -0.36 -0.48 -0.56 -0.62 -0.65 -0.68 -0.73 -0.74 -0.76 -0.76 -0.76

Expected cash rate 4.15 4.02 3.88 3.77 3.69 3.63 3.60 3.57 3.52 3.51 3.49 3.49 3.49

Sources: ANZ, Bloomberg

The RBA March Board Meeting Minutes noted: Retail sales growth had softened since mid-2011, with notable weakness in parts of the industry, including department stores and retailers of household goods (this is the most shrill the RBA has sounded on retail sector weakness); Labour market outcomes reflected the opposing cross-currents in the Australian economy with little net employment growth in the economy (we would contend that little employment growth is a poor policy outcome in the middle of the largest mining boom in living memory); and The housing market remained soft.

Each of the above statements hints at an evolving view that the domestic economy is not performing as the RBA envisaged 3-6 months ago. In the final section headed Considerations for monetary policy the Minutes report: A key question was whether the necessary adjustment was occurring at an overall pace of growth that kept the economy close to trend and inflation close to target.; and Members were also alert to the uncertainties inherent in assessing the response of the domestic economy to the disparate forces at work, including the very large rise in resources investment and the high exchange rate.

In a speech that post-dated the last RBA Board meeting, the RBA Governor said: On the other hand, recent national accounts data suggest growth in the non-farm economy somewhat below trend over 2011.; and

Australian Economics Weekly / 30 March 2012 / 3 of 17

IN FOCUS

Overall, recent economic performance in Australia is not too bad, particularly when compared, over a run of years, to a number of other advanced economies. But neither is it so good that it cannot be improved. The full range of policies macroeconomic and structural need to play their part in seeking that improvement.

These comments provide the first public take on the RBAs views of the December quarter national accounts and the performance of the economy in recent months. Again, they suggest that the Australian economy is performing less strongly than the RBA was previously expecting, notwithstanding the fact that the mining investment boom continues apace. Taken together, it appears that the RBA is evolving towards a view that, for domestic reasons, the Australian economy could probably afford to grow a little faster without generating significant inflation. The rate reductions late last year were delivered primarily on account of global concerns. While the likelihood of a disastrous global growth outcome has reduced in recent months, the expectation remains that global growth will be slightly sub trend this year. The conventional market thinking is that the Bank will wait to see the March quarter CPI in late April before considering any further policy easing in early May. However, a long period of watching the RBA suggests that once the Bank believes there is a case for a change in monetary policy, it rarely delays its decision. Our reading of the recent communications suggests the Bank is evolving in the direction of making the case for a rate change. In conclusion, the current evolution of the domestic data suggests that an earlierthan-expected interest rate cut by the RBA at next weeks April Board meeting is still a greater risk than currently priced by the market. In light of the evolution of the RBAs thinking, we are also more confident than before of our forecast of a 25bp cut by the May board meeting (see Figure 2). FIGURE 2. RBA CASH RATE: ANZ FORECASTS VS MARKET PRICING
8

7 average since 1995 6

2 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 RBA Cash Rate ANZ Forecast Current Cash Rate Futures Cash Rate Futures (Nov-11)

Sources: ANZ, Bloomberg, RBA

Australian Economics Weekly / 30 March 2012 / 4 of 17

DATA WRAP

AUSTRALIA DATA WRAP

Savita Singh Analyst Savita.Singh2@anz.com

ABS job vacancies increased 0.7% q/q in February quarter, but the trend remained weak. This is in contrast with other leading indicators for employment, such as the ANZ Job Advertisement series, which showed signs of improvement in January and February. Not surprisingly ABS job vacancies were the highest in the states of Western Australia and Queensland (as a percentage of the labour force). HIA new private home sales for February increased by 3.0% m/m, but did not fully reverse the previous months 7.3% fall. RBA private sector credit increased by 0.4% m/m in February, following a reading of 0.2% m/m in January, and appears to reflect improved confidence following some calming in European financial markets and the 50bp easing by the RBA in late 2011. The year on year trend, however, is unchanged at 2.5%. ABS migration data was weak, with net overseas migration increasing by just 2k to 172k in Q3 2011.

Australian Economics Weekly / 30 March 2012 / 5 of 17

DATA PREVIEW

BUILDING APPROVALS
80 60 40 annual % change 20 0 -20 -40 -60 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 February forecast

2 APR: BUILDING APPROVALS (FEB)

ANZ: +1.1% m/m, -4.8% y/y Market: +0.5% m/m Last: 0.9% m/m, -14.6% y/y Building approvals are expected to post a moderate increase in February with divergent performances across States and Territories. Despite rental yields showing improvement and the November and December RBA rate cuts, weak developer sentiment will continue to weigh on monthly growth in building approvals. Over the next few months however, the prospect for another rate cut, continuing soft house sales and moderate negative growth in house prices is expected to continue to dampen developer sentiment and building approvals. (DX)

RETAIL SALES
10 9 8 annual % change 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 February Forecast

3 APR: RETAIL SALES (FEB)

ANZ: +0.3% m/m, +2.2% y/y Market: +0.2% m/m Last: 0.5% m/m, +2.7% y/y The broadly flat trend in nominal retail sales has been largely due to price deflation, particularly in food and household goods in recent months. Meanwhile, the trends of a somewhat cautious consumer as seen in slow credit growth and leakage to non-retail consumption would suggest ongoing softness in retail sales in coming months. However, anecdotes from our latest marketing rounds point towards a slight improvement from very low levels recently. Confidence from rising equity markets and the 50bps of monetary policy easing late last year should see a modest rise in the trend of retail sales. (AM)

RBA CASH RATE

8.0 7.0

3 APR: RBA CASH RATE (APR)

ANZ: 4.25% Market: 4.25% Last: 4.25% See the In Focus article above for more detail.

6.0 5.0 % 4.0 3.0 April Forecast 2.0 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Australian Economics Weekly / 30 March 2012 / 6 of 17

DATA PREVIEW

TRADE BALANCE
4 3 2 1 A$Bn 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 February Forecast

4 APR: TRADE BALANCE (FEB)

ANZ: +1.3Bn Market: +1.1Bn% m/m Last: -0.673Bn There were a number of one-off factors that weighed on the January trade balance. A reversal of some of these factors will likely see a trade surplus similar to that of December 2011. A return of iron ore exports is expected after the cyclone disrupted January (although cyclones look to have also disrupted March exports). Meanwhile, coal exports will slowly return following the Chinese Luna New Year. As a result, exports are expected to rise 4.5% m/m in February. Meanwhile, preliminary ABS data point towards a 4% m/m fall in imports during February. This fall largely reflects monthly volatility after solid rises in capital goods exports (ex-civil aircraft) and consumption goods in January. (AM)

HOUSING FINANCE
10 8 6 4 2 % m/m 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 February forecast

11 APR: HOUSING FINANCE (FEB)

ANZ: -3.4% m/m, +10.4% y/y Market: not yet available Last: -1.2% m/m, +10.1% y/y The number of housing finance commitments is expected to post a decrease in February as soft house prices, weak buyer sentiment and weak employment growth weigh on housing finance activity. This is despite the lagged positive impact of the November and December 2011 RBA rate cuts. Looking further into 2012, greater stability in house prices and financial markets, steady growth in the global economy and improved housing affordability are expected to support moderate growth in housing finance. (DC)

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (MAR)

60 Monthly employment change (000's) March forecast

12 APR: LABOUR FORCE (MAR)

Employment: ANZ: +5.0K Market: not yet available Last: -15.4K Unemployment rate: ANZ: 5.3% Market: not yet available Last: 5.2% Participation rate: ANZ: 65.2% Market: not yet available Last: 65.2% Employment growth has been volatile in recent months. This is typical during periods of very low trend employment growth, such as we are seeing currently. Although there has been a slight improvement, underlying trend employment growth was just 1.1k (0.1%y/y) in February. For March, a small increase in seasonally adjusted jobs growth is likely,

40

20

-20

-40 Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12 seas. adj. growth trend growth

Australian Economics Weekly / 30 March 2012 / 7 of 17

DATA PREVIEW

UNEMPLOYMENT AND PARTICIPATION RATES (MAR)

6.0 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.0 % 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 Jan-07 66.0 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 65.4 March forecasts 65.0

after a third of Januarys solid gain was wiped off in February. Trend employment growth is likely to continue to rise very slowly. Job advertisements, industry employment indexes and other forward indicators of labour demand look stable, albeit at weak levels outside the boom state of WA. Statistically, March is a strong month of the year for labour demand, relative to other months. This means the original data will be pushed down by the seasonal adjustment factor. A weakly positive number therefore seems the most likely outcome this month, in seasonally adjusted terms. Current conditions and labour market sentiment (with media headlines about redundancies and job losses appearing frequently in the eastern states) mean the participation rate is likely to remain depressed after falling sharply in December. If participation remains stable, then the unemployment rate may still move up a notch to 5.3%, even with a mildly positive employment growth number. A recovery in the participation rate seems unlikely this month, but if it occurred, it could push the unemployment rate to 5.4% or higher. (JT)

65.2

65.6 % 65.8 unemployment rate (LHS) participation rate, inverse (RHS)

Australian Economics Weekly / 30 March 2012 / 8 of 17

DATA & EVENT CALENDAR

TWO WEEKS STARTING 2 APRIL

DATE 31 Mar - 1 Apr COUNTRY EU US UK DATA/EVENT PERIOD MARKET EU-27 Finance Ministers, Central Bankers Meet in Denmark Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in Evanston, Illinois (Voter) Lloyds Business Barometer Hometrack Housing Survey MoM Hometrack Housing Survey YoY CH US 2-Apr Monday AU PMI Manufacturing MAR MAR MAR MAR ---50.6 ---51.2 -----1.1% -4.8% ----------------1 0.0% -1.4% 51 49.6 51.3 0.8% 0.1% 2.0% 0.9% -14.6% 98.1 3.5% -4 4 -5 0 1.4% 31.9% 47.7 10.7% 48.1 -8.6B 51.2 -0.1% 52.4 61.5 ANZ LAST GMT 07:00 22:30 23:01 23:01 23:01 01:00 02:30 08:30 23:30 00:00 00:30 00:30 01:30 01:30 06:30 06:30 23:50 23:50 23:50 23:50 23:50 05:00 08:00 09:00 07:55 08:30 08:30 14:00 14:00 14:00 14:00 16:35 16:15 -0.2% 4.25% ---0.5% 3.5% 54 --1.4% -0.3% 4.25% ---------0.0% 0.3% 4.25% 11.3% 0.0% 48.4 0.7% 3.7% 54.3 1.2% --1.0% 00:00 01:30 04:30 23:50 01:30 01:00 09:00 09:00 08:30 23:01 13:45 14:00 18:00 20:05 14.50M 11.40M --15.03M 11.70M 21:00 21:00 AEST 17:00 08:30 09:01 09:01 09:01 11:00 12:30 18:30 09:30 10:00 10:30 10:30 11:30 11:30 16:30 16:30 09:50 09:50 09:50 09:50 09:50 15:00 18:00 19:00 17:55 18:30 18:30 00:00 00:00 00:00 00:00 02:35 02:15 10:00 11:30 14:30 09:50 11:30 11:00 19:00 19:00 18:30 09:01 23:45 00:00 04:00 06:05 07:00 07:00

HSBC Manufacturing PMI MAR -Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in Evanston, Illinois (Non-voter) AiG Performance of Mfg Index RPData-Rismark House PX Actual TD Securities Inflation MoM TD Securities Inflation YoY Building Approvals MoM Building Approvals YoY RBA Commodity Price Index Au RBA Commodity Index SDR YoY MAR FEB MAR MAR FEB FEB MAR MAR 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q MAR MAR F FEB MAR F 4Q ----0.5% -5.3% ---1 5 2 6 0.8% -47.7 10.7% 48.1 --

JN

Tankan Lge Manufacturers Index Tankan Non-Manufacturing Tankan Lge Mfg Outlook Tankan Non-Mfg Outlook Tankan Large All Indust Capex Vehicle Sales YoY

EU GE UK US

PMI Manufacturing Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate PMI Manufacturing BoE Housing Equity Withdrawal

PMI Manufacturing MAR 50.8 Fed's Bullard Speaks at Tsinghua University (Non-voter) Construction Spending MoM ISM Manufacturing FEB MAR 0.8% 53.4

ISM Prices Paid MAR 62.3 Fed's Pianalto Speaks on Monetary Policy in Marietta, Ohio (Voter) CA 3-Apr Tuesday AU JN CH EU UK US NZ Bank of Canada's Carney Speaks in Waterloo, Ontario Global Dairy Trade Auction ANZ Commodity Price Retail Sales sa MoM RBA CASH TARGET Monetary Base YoY Labor Cash Earnings YoY China Non-manufacturing PMI Euro-Zone PPI MoM Euro-Zone PPI YoY PMI Construction BRC Shop Price Index YoY ISM New York Factory Orders MAR FEB 3-Apr MAR FEB MAR FEB FEB MAR MAR MAR FEB

Minutes of FOMC Meeting Fed's Williams Speaks on Economy in San Diego (Voter) Total Vehicle Sales Domestic Vehicle Sales MAR MAR

Australian Economics Weekly / 30 March 2012 / 9 of 17

DATA & EVENT CALENDAR

DATE 4-Apr Wednesday

COUNTRY AU

DATA/EVENT AiG Performance of Service Index AOFM Auctions A$700m of July 2017 Bonds Trade Balance PMI Composite PMI Services Euro-Zone Retail Sales MoM Euro-Zone Retail Sales YoY ECB Announces Interest Rates

PERIOD MAR FEB MAR F MAR F FEB FEB 4-Apr MAR F FEB FEB MAR MAR 30-Mar MAR MAR

MARKET -A$1.1bn 48.8 48.7 -0.1% -1.0% 51.8 -5.7% 0.9% 53.5 --205K 56.7

ANZ -A$1.3bn --------------

LAST 46.7 -673M 48.7 48.7 0.3% 0.0% 1.0% 51.8 -4.9% -2.7% 53.8 $746M -2.7% 216K 57.3

GMT 23:30 01:30 08:00 08:00 09:00 09:00 11:45 07:55 10:00 10:00 08:30 08:30 11:00 12:15 14:00 15:00 15:55

AEST 09:30 11:30 18:00 18:00 19:00 19:00 21:45 17:55 20:00 20:00 18:30 18:30 21:00 22:15 00:00 01:00 01:55 09:50 09:50 09:50 09:50 12:00 12:30 20:00 20:00 10:00 18:30 18:30 18:30 18:30 21:00 21:00 00:00 10:00 21:30 22:00 22:30 22:30 23:10 23:45 22:30 22:30 22:30 22:30 22:30 22:30 00:00 09:30 15:00 15:00 22:30 22:30 22:30 22:30 22:30 22:30 22:30 22:30 22:30 05:00

EU

GE

PMI Services Factory Orders YoY nsa Factory Orders MoM sa

UK US

PMI Services Official Reserves (Changes) MBA Mortgage Applications ADP Employment Change ISM Non-Manf. Composite

CA 5-Apr Thursday JN

Fed's Williams Speaks in San Francisco (Voter) Bank of Canada's Boivin Speaks in Toronto Japan Buying Foreign Bonds Japan Buying Foreign Stocks Foreign Buying Japan Bonds Foreign Buying Japan Stocks Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (%) 30-Mar 30-Mar 30-Mar 30-Mar MAR MAR FEB FEB MAR FEB FEB FEB FEB APR 5-Apr MAR MAR MAR APR 31-Mar -------0.6% 0.0% -0.4% -2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 325B 0.5% -------------------------349.5B -150.6B -1135.6B -242.7B 9.15 53.9 1.6% 1.8% -2.5% -0.4% -3.8% 0.1% 0.3% 325B 0.5% 0.1% 4.1% 2.0% 47.5 359K 3340K -34.7 -12.3% 7.4% 66.5 -2.8K 9.1 -12 66.5 35.6 92.7 94.4 227K 233K 31K 8.3% 0.1% 1.9% 34.5 428 14.9% $17.776B

23:50 23:50 23:50 23:50 02:00 02:30 10:00 10:00 00:00 08:30 08:30 08:30 08:30 11:00 11:00 14:00 00:00 11:30 12:00 12:30 12:30 13:10 13:45 12:30 12:30 12:30 12:30 12:30 12:30 14:00 23:30 05:00 05:00 12:30 12:30 12:30 12:30 12:30 12:30 12:30 12:30 12:30 19:00

CH GE UK

China HSBC Services PMI Industrial Production MoM sa Industrial Prod. YoY (nsa wda) New Car Registrations YoY Industrial Production MoM Industrial Production YoY Manufacturing Production MoM Manufacturing Production YoY BOE Asset Purchase Target BOE Announces Rates NIESR GDP Estimate

US

ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY Challenger Job Cuts YoY RBC Consumer Outlook Index Initial Jobless Claims

Continuing Claims 24-Mar --Fed's Bullard Speaks on Economy, Monetary Policy in St. Louis (Non-voter) Bloomberg Consumer Comfort CA Building Permits MoM Unemployment Rate Participation Rate Net Change in Employment Full Time Employment Change Part Time Employment Change Ivey Purchasing Managers Index sa 6-Apr Friday AU JN US AiG Perf of Construction Index Coincident Index CI Leading Index CI Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Change in Private Payrolls Change in Manufact. Payrolls Unemployment Rate Avg Hourly Earning MoM All Emp Avg Hourly Earning YoY All Emp Avg Weekly Hours All Employees Change in Household Employ Underemployment Rate (U6) Consumer Credit 1-Apr FEB MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR FEB P FEB P MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR FEB --7.4% -12.5K --67 ---210K 223K 20K 8.3% 0.2% 1.9% 34.5 --$12.000B ----------------------

Australian Economics Weekly / 30 March 2012 / 10 of 17

DATA & EVENT CALENDAR

DATE 9-Apr Monday

COUNTRY JN

DATA/EVENT Eco Watchers Survey: Current Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook Current Account Total Adjusted Current Account Total Current Account Balance YoY Trade Balance - BOP Basis Bankruptcies YoY

PERIOD MAR MAR FEB FEB FEB FEB MAR MAR MAR APR MAR

MARKET --------0.3% 3.4% ---

ANZ ------------

LAST 45.9 50.1 -437.3B 115.6B -180.0% -1381.6B 5.2% 0.0% 3.2% -8.2 -69 -13.0% -4 -6.3 3 1 3.3% A$49.1B 0.1% -8.6% -$31.48B 18.4% 39.6% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 8.0B 13.1B 0.2% -0.3% 94.3 47.5 3459 0.4%

GMT 14:00 14:00 23:50 23:50 23:50 23:50 04:30 01:30 01:30 08:30 23:01 23:01 22:00 14:30 14:30 01:30 01:30 01:30 06:30 14:00 06:00 14:00 14:00 14:00 16:00 16:00 06:00 06:00 06:00 06:00 08:30 23:01 11:30 14:00 14:00 14:00 16:45 18:30

AEST 00:00 00:00 09:50 09:50 09:50 09:50 14:30 11:30 11:30 18:30 09:01 09:01 08:00 00:30 00:30 11:30 11:30 11:30 16:30 00:00 16:00 00:00 00:00 00:00 02:00 02:00 16:00 16:00 16:00 16:00 18:30 09:01 21:30 00:00 00:00 00:00 02:45 04:30 08:00 10:30 10:30 11:30 11:30 11:30 11:30 09:50 09:50 09:50 09:50 21:00 22:20 22:30 22:30 23:30 00:30 04:00 04:00 04:00 07:00 22:15

CH EU

Producer Price Index YoY Consumer Price Index YoY Sentix Investor Confidence Lloyds Employment Confidence

US

RICS House Price Balance MAR --Fed's Bernanke Speaks at Stone Mountain, Georgia Conference (Voter) Business Outlook Future Sales BoC Senior Loan Officer Survey 1Q 1Q MAR MAR MAR MAR 10-Apr MAR P MAR MAR MAR FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB MAR MAR APR FEB ---------$6.20B 7.0% 10.5% ----------------------------------

10-Apr Tuesday

AU

NAB Business Conditions NAB Business Confidence ANZ Job Advertisements MoM Foreign Reserves

JN CH

BOJ Target Rate Machine Tool Orders YoY Trade Balance (USD) Exports YoY Imports YoY Exports sa MoM Imports sa MoM

GE

Exports sa MoM Imports sa MoM Current Account (EURO) Trade Balance

UK US

DCLG UK House Prices YoY BRC Sales Like-For-Like YoY NFIB Small Business Optimism IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism JOLTs Job Openings

Wholesale Inventories FEB --Fed's Lockhart Gives Welcome at Markets Conference in Georgia (Voter) Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in Nicollet, Minnesota (Non-voter) US Treasury Auctions 3-Year Notes 11-Apr Wednesday NZ AU NZIER Business Opinion Survey RBA's Ellis in Panel Discussion, Atlanta Westpac Consumer Confidence sa MoM Westpac Consumer Confidence Index Home Loans MoM Building Approvals, disaggregated Investment Lending Owner-Occupied Home Loan Value MoM JN Bank Lending Ex-Trusts YoY Bank Lending incl Trusts YoY Machine Orders MoM US Machine Orders YoY US Treasury Auctions 10-Year Notes 1Q APR APR FEB MAR FEB FEB MAR MAR FEB FEB ---------------3.4% --------

0 -5.0% 96.1 -1.2% --7.1% 0.1% 0.8% -3.4% 5.7% -0.4% 5.5%

22:00 00:30 00:30 01:30 01:30 01:30 01:30 23:50 23:50 23:50 23:50 11:00 12:20 12:30 12:30 13:30 14:30 18:00 18:00

MBA Mortgage Applications 6-Apr --Fed's Lockhart Gives Welcome, Closing at Georgia Conference (Voter) Import Price Index MoM MAR --Import Price Index YoY MAR --Fed's George to Speak at Minsky Conference in New York (Non-voter) Fed's Rosengren Speaks on Money Funds at Georgia Conference Fed's Beige Book Fed Releases Beige Book Economic Survey Monthly Budget Statement MAR -Fed's Bullard Delivers Opening Remarks in St. Louis (Non-voter) CA Housing Starts MAR ----

-201.1K

18:00 21:00 12:15

Australian Economics Weekly / 30 March 2012 / 11 of 17

DATA & EVENT CALENDAR

DATE 12-Apr Thursday

COUNTRY NZ Business NZ PMI

DATA/EVENT NZ Card Spending - Retail MoM NZ Card Spending - Total MoM QV House Prices YoY ANZ Consumer Confidence Index ANZ Consumer Confidence MoM

PERIOD MAR MAR MAR MAR APR APR APR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB FEB MAR MAR MAR MAR 7-Apr

MARKET ----------------------------

ANZ ---------+5k 65.2% 5.3% -----------------

LAST 57.7 -0.7% -0.3% 2.9% 110.2 -2.7% 2.7% -15.4K 0.0K -15.4K 65.2% 5.2% 2.9% 2.5% 0.2% 0.6% -1.5% 0.3% -7532 -3678 -1762 -$52.6B 0.4% 0.2% 3.3% 3.0% ----

GMT 22:30 22:45 22:45 00:00 01:00 01:00 01:00 01:30 01:30 01:30 01:30 01:30 23:50 23:50 23:50 23:50 08:00 09:00 09:00 08:30 08:30 08:30 12:30 12:30 12:30 12:30 12:30 12:30 12:30 13:00 13:45 14:00 14:00 17:00

AEST 08:30 08:45 08:45 10:00 11:00 11:00 11:00 11:30 11:30 11:30 11:30 11:30 09:50 09:50 09:50 09:50 18:00 19:00 19:00 18:30 18:30 18:30 22:30 22:30 22:30 22:30 22:30 22:30 22:30 23:00 23:45 00:00 00:00 03:00 22:30 22:30 22:30 12:00 12:00 12:00 12:00 12:00 12:00 12:00 12:00 16:00 16:00 16:00 16:00 18:30 18:30 18:30 18:30 18:30 18:30 22:30 22:30 22:30 22:30 22:30 22:30 23:55 09:01 09:01

AU

Consumer Inflation Expectation Part Time Employment Change Full Time Employment Change Employment Change Participation Rate Unemployment Rate

JN

Japan Money Stock M2 YoY Japan Money Stock M3 YoY Domestic CGPI MoM Domestic CGPI YoY

EU

ECB Publishes April Monthly Report Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. wda YoY Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. sa MoM

UK

Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn Trade Balance Non EU GBP/Mn Total Trade Balance (GBP/Mln)

US

Trade Balance Producer Price Index MoM PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM Producer Price Index YoY PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY Initial Jobless Claims

Continuing Claims 31-Mar -Fed's Lockhart to Moderate Panel Discussion in Atlanta (Voter)

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 8-Apr --New York Fed's Cumming to Speak on Panel in New York (Non-voter) Fed's Nellie Liang to Speak on Panel in New York (Non-voter) Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in White Bear Lake, Minnesota (Non-voter) US Treasury Auctions 30-Year Bonds CA New Housing Price Index MoM New Housing Price Index YoY Int'l Merchandise Trade 13-Apr Friday CH Industrial Production YTD YoY Industrial Production YoY Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD YoY Real GDP YTD YoY Real GDP QoQ Real GDP YoY Retail Sales YTD YoY Retail Sales YoY GE Consumer Price Index MoM Consumer Price Index YoY CPI - EU Harmonised MoM CPI - EU Harmonised YoY UK PPI Input Nsa MoM PPI Input Nsa YoY PPI Output n.sa MoM PPI Output n.sa YoY PPI Output Core Nsa MoM PPI Output Core Nsa YoY US Consumer Price Index MoM CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM Consumer Price Index YoY CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY Consumer Price Index Nsa CPI Core Index sa U. of Michigan Confidence 15-Apr UK Rightmove House Prices MoM Rightmove House Prices YoY FEB FEB FEB MAR MAR MAR 1Q 1Q 1Q MAR MAR MAR F MAR F MAR F MAR F MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR MAR APR P APR APR -------------------------------------------------------------

0.1% 2.4% 2.10B 11.4% -21.5% 9.2% 2.0% 8.9% 14.7% -0.3% 2.1% 0.4% 2.3% 2.1% 7.3% 0.6% 4.1% 0.5% 3.0% 0.4% 0.1% 2.9% 2.2% 227.663 227.907 -1.6% 2.2%

12:30 12:30 12:30 02:00 02:00 02:00 02:00 02:00 02:00 02:00 02:00 06:00 06:00 06:00 06:00 08:30 08:30 08:30 08:30 08:30 08:30 12:30 12:30 12:30 12:30 12:30 12:30 13:55 23:01 23:01

Australian Economics Weekly / 30 March 2012 / 12 of 17

FIVE WEEKS AT A GLANCE

MONDAY 2 APRIL TUESDAY 3 APRIL WEDNESDAY 4 APRIL THURSDAY 5 APRIL FRIDAY 6 APRIL

AU: Building Approvals (Feb) JN: Tankan Survey (Q1), Vehicle Sales (Mar) EU: PMI Manuf. (Mar F), Unemployment Rate (Feb) GE: PMI Manuf. (Mar F) UK: PMI Manuf. (Mar) US: ISM Manuf. (Mar), Construction Spending (Feb), Feds Bullard and Pianalto Speak

NZ: Global Dairy Trade Auction, ANZ Commodity Price (Mar) AU: Retail Sales (Feb), RBA Rates Decision CH: Non-manufacturing PMI (Mar) EU: PPI (Feb) UK: PMI Construction (Mar) US: Factory Orders (Feb), FOMC Minutes, Feds Williams Speaks

AU: Trade (Feb) EU: PMI (Mar F), Retail Sales (Feb), ECB Rates Decision GE: PMI Services (Mar F); Factory Orders (Feb) UK: PMI Services (Mar) US: ADP Employment Change (Mar), ISM NonManuf. (Mar), Feds Williams Speaks CA: BoCs Boivin Speaks

CH: HSBC Services PMI (Mar) GE: Ind. Prod. (Feb) UK: Ind. Prod. (Feb), Manuf. Prod. (Feb), BOE Rates Decision US: Feds Bullard Speaks CA: Employment (Mar), Building Permits (Feb), Ivey PMI (Mar)

Public Holiday (AU, NZ, EU, UK, US, CA) JN: Coincidence Index (Feb P) US: Non-farm Payrolls (Mar), Unemployment Rate (Mar), Consumer Credit (Feb)

9 APRIL

Public Holiday (AU, NZ, EU, UK, US, CA) JN: Current Account and Trade (Feb) CH: PPI and CPI (Mar) EU: Sentix Investor Confidence (Apr) US: Feds Bernanke Speaks

10 APRIL

AU: ANZ Job Ads. (Mar), NAB Business Conditions and Confidence (Mar) JN: BoJ Rates Decision CH: Trade Balance (Mar) GE: Current Account (Feb), Trade Balance (Feb) US: NFIB Small Bus. Optimism (Mar), Feds Lockhart, Korcherlakota Speak

11 APRIL

AU: RBAs Ellis in Panel Discussion, Westpac Consumer Confidence (Apr), Housing Finance (Feb) US: Import Price Index (Mar), Monthly Budget Statement (Mar), Feds Beige Book (Mar), Feds Lockhart, George, and Rosengren, and Bullard Speak CA: Housing Starts (Mar)

12 APRIL

NZ: Business NZ PMI (Mar), ANZ Consumer Confidence (Apr), NZ Card Spending (Mar) AU: Employment (Mar) (Mar) JN: Domestic CGPI (Mar) EU: Ind. Prod. (Feb), ECB Publishes Monthly Report UK: Trade Balance (Feb) US: Trade Balance (Mar), PPI (Mar), Feds Lockhart, and Kocherlakota Speak CA: Merchandise Trade (Feb)

13 APRIL

CH: Ind. Prod. (Mar), Real GDP (Q1), Retail Sales (Mar) GE: CPI (Mar F) UK: PPI (Mar) US: CPI (Mar), Univ. of Michigan Confidence (Apr P)

16 APRIL

NZ: Performance of Services (Mar), Food Prices (Mar) EU: Trade (Feb) US: Retail Sales (Mar), Empire Fed Manufacturing (Apr), Business Inventories (Feb), NAHB Housing (Apr), Feds Bullard Speaks

17 APRIL

AU: RBA Minutes JN: Ind. Prod (Feb), Consumer Confidence (Mar) EU: CPI (Mar), ZEW (Apr) GE: ZEW Survey (Apr) UK: CPI (Mar) US: Housing Starts (Mar), Building Permits (Mar), Ind. Prod. (Mar) CA: Manufacturing Sales (Feb), BoC Rates

18 APRIL

AU: Westpac Leading Index (Feb) EU: Current Account (Feb), Construction Output (Feb) UK: BoE Minutes, Unemployment (Feb), Jobless Claims Change (Mar) CA: BoC Monetary Policy Report

19 APRIL

NZ: ANZ Job Ads (Mar), CPI (Q1) JN: Trade (Mar) EU: Consumer Confidence (Apr) US: Philly Fed Manufacturing (Apr), Existing Home Sales (Mar), Leading Indicators (Mar) CA: BoCs Carney Speaks

20 APRIL

AU: International Trade Prices (Q1) GE: PPI (Mar), IFO Survey (Apr) UK: Retail Sales (Mar) CA: CPI (Mar) G20 Finance Ministers Meeting in Washington

23 APRIL

AU: PPI (Q1) JN: Coincident Index (Feb), Leading Index CI (Feb) EU: Euro-zone Government Debt/GDP Ratio

24 APRIL

NZ: Net Migration (Mar), Credit Card Spending (Mar) AU: CPI (Q1) CH: Conference Board China Leading Economic Index (Mar) US: S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index (Feb), Consumer Confidence (Apr), Richmond Fed (Apr), New Home Sales (Mar) CA: Retail Sales (Feb)

25 APRIL

ANZAC Day Public Holiday (AU) UK: GDP (Q1 A), Index of Services (Feb) US: Cap & Durable Goods Orders (Mar), FOMC Rate Decision, Feds Bernanke Speaks

26 APRIL

NZ: RBNZ Official Cash Rate Decision AU: DEWR Internet Skilled Vacancies (Mar) EU: Bus. Climate Indicator (Apr), Consumer Confidence (Apr F) GE: CPI (Apr) US: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (Mar), Pending Home Sales (Mar), Kansas City Fed Manuf. Activity (Apr)

27 APRIL

AU: HIA New Home Sales (Mar) CH: Industrial Profits (Mar) JN: National CPI (Mar), Jobless Rate (Mar), Ind Prod. (Mar P), Retail Trade (Mar), BoJ Target Rate GE: GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (May) US: Employment Cost Index (Q1), GDP (Q1), Univ. of Michigan Confidence (Apr F)

30 APRIL

NZ: Building Permits (Mar), Trade Balance (Mar), NBNZ Business Confidence (Apr) AU: Private Sector Credit (Mar) JN: Manuf. PMI (Apr) US: PCE (Mar), Chicago Purchasing Manager (Apr) Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity (Apr) CA: GDP (Feb)

1 MAY

AU: RBA Rates Decision GE: Unemployment (Apr) CH: PMI Manuf. (Apr), HSBC PMI Manuf. (Apr) UK: PMI Manuf. (Apr) US: ISM (Apr), Construction Spending (Mar)

2 MAY

NZ: ANZ Commodity Price (Apr) EU: PMI Manuf. (Apr F), Unemployment (Mar) GE: Unemployment (Apr), PMI Manuf. (Apr F) UK: PMI Construction (Apr), Mortgage Approvals (Mar), Consumer Credit (Mar) US: ADP Employment (Apr), Factory Orders (Mar)

3 MAY

NZ: Employment (Q1) CH: PMI Non-manuf. (Apr) EU: PPI (Mar), ECB Rates Decision UK: PMI Services (Apr)

4 MAY

AU: RBA SOMP EU: PMI (Apr F), Retail Sales (Mar) GE: PMI Services (Apr F) US: Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr), Unemployment (Apr) CA: Ivey PMI (Apr)

Australian Economics Weekly / 30 March 2012 / 13 of 17

CENTRAL BANK RELEASES FOR 2012

JANUARY 2012 12th 12th 17th 24th 25th 25th 25th 26th 26th ECB BoE BoC BoJ BoJ Monthly Report BoE Minutes FOMC ECB RBNZ

FEBRUARY 2012 7th RBA 9th BoE 9th ECB 14th BoJ 15th BoJ Monthly Report 17th BoJ Minutes 21st RBA Minutes 22nd BoE Minutes 23rd ECB

MARCH 2012 6th RBA 8th BoC 8th ECB 8th BoE 8th RBNZ MP Statement 13th BoJ 13th FOMC 14th BoJ Monthly Report 16th BoJ Minutes 20th RBA Minutes 21st BoE Minutes 22nd ECB

APRIL 2012 3rd RBA 4th ECB 9th BoE 9th BoJ 10th BoJ 11th BoJ Monthly Report 13th BoJ Minutes 17th RBA Minutes 17th BoC 18th BoE Minutes 19th ECB 25th FOMC 26th RBNZ 27th BoJ

MAY 2012 1st RBA 3rd ECB 7th BoJ Minutes 10th BoE 15th RBA Minutes 16th ECB 23rd BoJ 24th BoJ Monthly Report 25th BoE Minutes 28th BoJ Minutes

JUNE 2012 5th RBA 5th BoC 7th BoE 6th ECB 14th RBNZ MP Statement 15th BoJ 18th BoJ Monthly Report 19th RBA Minutes 20th BoJ Minutes 20th FOMC 20th BoE Minutes 21st ECB

JULY 2012 3rd RBA 5th ECB 5th BoE 12th BoJ 13th BoJ Monthly Report 17th BoC 17th RBA Minutes 18th BoJ Minutes 19th ECB 26th RBNZ 28th BoE Minutes 31st FOMC

AUGUST 2012 2nd BoE 2nd ECB 7th RBA 9th BoJ 10th BoJ Monthly Report 14th BoJ Minutes 18th BoE Minutes 21st RBA Minutes

SEPTEMBER 2012 4th RBA 5th BoC 6th BoE 6th ECB 12th FOMC 13th RBNZ MP Statement 18th RBA Minutes 19th BoJ 19th BoE Minutes 20th BoJ Monthly Report 20th ECB 24th BoJ Minutes

OCTOBER 2012 2nd RBA 4th BoE 4th ECB 5th BoJ 9th BoJ Monthly Report 11th BoJ Minutes 16th RBA Minutes 17th BoE Minutes 18th ECB 23rd BoC 24th FOMC 25th RBNZ 30th BoJ

NOVEMBER 2012 2nd BoJ Minutes 6th RBA 8th ECB 8th BoE 20th RBA Minutes 20th BoJ 21st BoJ Monthly Report 21st BoE Minutes 22nd ECB 26th BoJ Minutes

DECEMBER 2012 4th RBA 4th BoC 6th ECB 6th BoE 6th RBNZ MP Statement 11th FOMC 19th BoE Minutes 20th ECB 20th RBA Minutes 20th BoJ 21st BoJ Monthly Report 26th BoJ Minutes

Notes: Entries are the dates of central bank interest rate announcements, unless specified as minutes or otherwise. Dates are indicative only and are subject to change by central bank authorities. Key: BoC: Bank of Canada; BoE: Bank of England; BoJ: Bank of Japan; ECB: European Central Bank; FOMC: Federal Open Market Committee; RBA: Reserve Bank of Australia; RBNZ: Reserve Bank of New Zealand; SNB: Swiss National Bank. Sources: Central bank websites.

Australian Economics Weekly / 30 March 2012 / 14 of 17

FORECASTS
AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS Economic activity (annual % change) Private final demand Household consumption Dwelling investment Business investment Public demand Domestic final demand Inventories (contribution to GDP growth) Gross National Expenditure (GNE) Exports Imports Net Exports (contribution to GDP growth) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Prices and wages (annual % change) Inflation*: Headline CPI Underlying (RBA core)^ Wages: Labour market Employment (annual % change) Unemployment rate (annual average %) External sector Terms of trade (annual % change) Current account balance: AUD bn % of GDP AUSTRALIAN INTEREST RATES RBA cash rate 90 day bill 3 year bond 10 year bond 3s10s yield curve 3 year swap 10 year swap INTERNATIONAL INTEREST RATES RBNZ cash rate NZ 90 day bill US Fed funds note US 2 year note US 10 year note Japan call rate ECB refinance rate UK repo rate 16.4 -38.5 -2.8 CURRENT 4.25 4.34 3.47 3.97 0.50 4.02 4.75 CURRENT 2.50 2.75 0.25 0.34 2.16 0.10 1.00 0.50 JUN 12F 4.00 4.15 3.20 3.80 0.60 3.80 4.60 JUN 12F 2.50 2.75 0.25 0.20 1.90 0.10 1.00 0.50 13.3 -32.0 -2.2 SEP 12F 4.00 4.15 3.40 4.00 0.60 3.90 4.70 SEP 12F 2.50 2.75 0.25 0.20 2.00 0.10 1.00 0.50 -7.0 -70.0 -4.7 DEC 12F 4.00 4.15 3.40 3.90 0.50 3.85 4.50 DEC 12F 2.75 3.17 0.25 0.20 2.00 0.10 1.00 0.50 MAR 13F 4.00 4.15 3.30 3.80 0.50 3.75 4.35 MAR 13F 3.25 3.67 0.25 0.20 2.10 0.10 1.00 0.50 -1.5 -95.7 -6.1 JUN 13F 4.00 4.15 3.30 3.80 0.50 3.70 4.35 JUN 13F 3.50 3.75 0.25 0.30 2.20 0.10 1.00 0.50 2.7 5.2 1.7 5.1 1.1 5.4 2.5 5.0 2.8 2.8 3.4 3.4 2.6 3.7 2.3 2.7 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.9 2.0 2.9 4.1 -1.3 8.7 3.6 0.4 4.1 5.8 14.1 -1.5 2.5 5.6 3.4 1.1 16.9 -0.6 4.1 0.4 4.4 -1.6 11.6 -2.7 2.0 6.2 3.1 -5.5 20.7 -0.3 4.7 -0.2 4.5 9.6 13.5 -1.3 3.2 6.3 3.3 6.1 15.3 0.1 5.0 0.0 5.0 9.9 14.8 -1.7 3.1 2010 2011 2012F 2013F

* Includes carbon tax. ^ Average of RBA trimmed mean and weighted statistical measures

Australian Economics Weekly / 30 March 2012 / 15 of 17

FORECASTS

FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES Australian exchange rates AUD/USD NZD/USD AUD/ AUD/ AUD/ AUD/NZD AUD/CAD AUD/CHF AUD/CNY AUD Trade weighted index International cross rates USD/ /USD / /USD / USD/CAD USD/CHF USD index Asia exchange rates USD/CNY USD/HKD USD/IDR USD/INR USD/KRW USD/MYR USD/PHP USD/SGD USD/THB USD/TWD USD/VND Pacific exchange rates PGK/USD FJD/USD

CURRENT 1.04 0.82 85.3 0.78 0.65 1.27 1.03 0.94 6.54 76.9 82.2 1.33 109 1.60 0.83 1.00 0.91 79.0 6.31 7.76 9183 51.4 1136 3.07 43.0 1.26 30.89 29.56 20825 0.487 0.562

JUN 12F 1.06 0.85 81.6 0.79 0.67 1.25 1.05 1.02 6.60 76.9 77.0 1.35 104 1.59 0.85 0.99 0.96 77.8 6.23 7.80 8800 47.5 1080 3.00 42.6 1.23 30.40 28.80 21400 0.513 0.583

SEP 12F 1.10 0.86 82.5 0.80 0.68 1.28 1.11 1.08 6.81 79.0 75.0 1.37 103 1.61 0.85 1.01 0.98 77.0 6.19 7.80 8750 47.0 1070 2.98 42.5 1.22 30.20 28.70 21600 0.528 0.584

DEC 12F 1.10 0.89 79.2 0.80 0.67 1.24 1.13 1.10 6.74 78.1 72.0 1.37 99 1.63 0.84 1.03 1.00 76.7 6.13 7.80 8700 46.5 1065 2.98 41.7 1.22 30.00 28.70 21800 0.536 0.589

MAR 13F 1.10 0.90 77.0 0.80 0.67 1.22 1.16 1.12 6.71 77.6 70.0 1.37 96 1.63 0.84 1.05 1.02 76.6 6.10 7.80 8650 46.0 1060 2.98 41.9 1.22 30.00 28.70 21800 0.547 0.591

JUN 13F 1.10 0.90 77.0 0.80 0.67 1.22 1.18 1.14 6.69 77.3 70.0 1.37 96 1.63 0.84 1.07 1.04 76.8 6.08 7.80 8600 45.2 1050 2.97 40.1 1.21 29.80 28.50 22000 0.563 0.591

Australian Economics Weekly / 30 March 2012 / 16 of 17

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Australian Economics Weekly / 30 March 2012 / 17 of 17

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