OPINION POLL SURVEY for By-Election

Survey of Ayeyarwaddy , Yangon, NayPidaw regions by Mizzima Media Group and Comreg.

24th-31st March, 2012

Introduction 1.Background and methodology

Myanmars Union Election Commission promised to the public that that the by-election on April 1, 2012, would be free and fair. Of the 48 constituencies, elections in three are in northernmost areas of Kachin State have been postponed: Mogaung, Bahmaw and Phakant have been postponed because of security concerns based on armed clashes between the Kachin Indepdence Army and government forces since June 9, 2011. In 2010, the government also postponed elections in several areas because of ethnic unrest, leaving a few parliamentary seats still unfilled. The National League for Democracy (NLD) party won the 1990 general election, but it was not allowed to assume office. The April 1 byelections are the first poll in which the NLD party will participate in since boycotting the 2010 general election. According to the Union Election Commission, a total of 157 candidates from 17 political parties will run in the by-elections. Of the 157 candidates, 129 will contest for 37 seats of the House of Representatives (Lower House), while 22 candidates will run for six seats of the House of Nationalities (Upper House) and six candidates will run for two seats of region or state parliaments. The survey was conducted in the Ayeyarwaddy Division (Phyarpone, Myaungmya, Pathein, MaUpin, WaKhe Ma, Dedayay); the Yangon Division (Mayangone, Tongkwa, Kawmu, Dagon seik kan, Hlegu Mingalar Taung Nyunt); and the Naypyitaw Division (Zabuthiri, Dakhinathiri, Oatayathiri, Popathiri) during the last week of March 2012. Eight different parties are vying for seats: the National League of Democracy, National Democratic Force, Union Solidarity Development Party, Myanmar Congress, Unity and Peace Party, National Unity Party, Democratic Party, New National Democracy Party and independent candidates in Yangon Division. In the Ayeyarwaddy Division there are three major parties (NLD, USDP and NUPO); in the Naypyitaw area the same parties are competing plus the Phalon-Sawol Democracy Party (PSDP). A team of eight experienced enumerators and community organizers performed the field research. Training and testing of research tools and field planning were carried out before the poll. Research tool design, pilot testing and training were performed in Yangon by resource personnel from COMREGS. The sample size was 362 respondents with a 5 per cent margin of error and a 5 per cent level of confidence. Epidata Software was used for data entry and data processing was done by Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) Software.
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The analysis was performed by COMREG research services.

Of the total 362 respondents 362, 56 per cent were male and 44 were female. People between ages 25 and 39 years and 40 and 60 years were the most number of respondents. The majority of the respondents were graduates.
Fig (1). Gender of Respondents (N=393)

Fig (2). Age Group of Respondents (N=393)

Fig(3) Ethnic group of the respondents (N=393)

Fig (6). Do you know about this by election? (N=393)

Fig (7). Have you plan to vote?

Fig (8). Do you know how to vote?

Fig (9). How do you know voting method

Fig (10). The candidate name and party name known by respondents (N=393)

Fig. (11) Do you know about the policies of your constituent? (N=393)

Fig (12). How do you know about the policy of your constituent? (N=393)

Fig (13). Which party will you vote? (N=393)

Fig (13). Why did you choose that party to vote for? (N=393)

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Fig (14). Do you think which party will win this by-election? (N=393)

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Fig (15). Do you think current Myanmar political situation has changed positively?

Fig (16) Do you think current Myanmar politics has improved?

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Fig (17) Plan to vote versus gender

Fig (19). Plan to vote in the by-election versus age groups

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Fig (20). Education level and plan to vote in by-election

Fig (21). Plan to vote in the by-election Vs Constituencies

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Fig (22). Plan to vote versus ethnic group

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Fig(23) Plan to vote Vs occupation

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Fig (24) Belief about current political situation versus aged group

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Fig (25). Views on improvement versus gender

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Fig (26) Thoughts about the current political situation is improved versus ethnic group

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Fig (27) Improved Myanmar politics versus education level

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Fig (28) Beliefs about the current Myanmar political improvement versus occupation

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Fig (29) Believe socio economics of Myanmar will progress in next three years versus age group

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Fig (30) Beliefs about the socio-economic of Myanmar is progressive in next 3 years Vs gender

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Fig (31) Think about the socio-economic of Myanmar is progressive Vs ethnic group

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Fig (32) Belief about Myanmar socio-economic progressive in next 3 years versus education level

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Fig (33) Belief about Myanmar socio-economic progressive versus occupation

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Fig (34) Gender versus How to know voting?

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Fig (35) Gender versus do you know your candidates policies?

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Fig (36) Aged group versus how did you learn about voting method?

2. Feedback from Interviewers (COMREG) Most of the respondents who are government staffs from NayPyiDaw are getting chance to buy a mobile phone with credit provided by USDP and plan to vote for the Union Solidarity Development Party (USDP). Some interviewers observed that some female respondent are still afraid to vote. Most of respondents doubted the by-election process would be free and fair. In the Yangon and the Dagon seik kan area, the USDP conducted a campaign to repair roads. Some respondents said they would vote for the USDP because they are in debt to USDP for providing short-term loans. Most respondents said they were voting for the NLD party because of Aung San Suu Kyi.

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