SAMPLE SOVEREIGN RISK SCORING MODEL

Country: Croatia

1.

Score:

Economy

For the most recent available 12 month period:

Currency:
Real exchange rate movement was:
a) Positive .3
b) Negative 0- 5%......................................2
c) Negative 6-15%...................................1
d) Negative more than 15% ...0

Sources:
www.hnb.hr
GDP:
GDP real growth:
a) Grew by more than 4% per year ....3
b) Grew by 2-4% per year ....2
c) Staged..1
d) Declined..0

Sources:
www.hnb.hr
Unemployment (best estimate available) was:
a) Less than 5%.......................................3
b) 5-10%..................................................2
c) 11-15%................................................1

d) More than 15%..................................0

Sources:
www.hnb.hr

MONEY
Inflation was:
a) 0-5% per year.3
b) 6-10% per year2
c) 10-15 per year.1
d) More than 15% per year .....0

Sources:
www.hnb.hr
The most recent real lending rate was:
a) Positive or negative by less than 3%....3
b) Negative by 3-5%...................................2
c) Negative by 6-10%...............................1
d) Negative by more than 10% .0

Sources:
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/croatia/real-interest-rate-percent-wb-data.html
If the country had a current account deficit, foreign reserves covered:
a) Surplus/more than 100% .3
b) 75-100%.............................................2
c) 50-75%...............................................1
d) Less than 50%....................................0

Sources: http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=hr&v=144 -foreign reserves and gold

http://www.indexmundi.com/croatia/current_account_balance.html -current account

balance
www.imf.org

Foreign reserves were:

a) Steady or increasing.3
b) Declining 1-5%....................................2
c) Declining 6-10%..................................1
d) Declining more than 10%....................0

Sources:
http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=hr&v=144
www.imf.org
Total external debt is:
a) less than 30% of GDP..3
b) 30-75% of GDP...2
c) 75-100% of GDP....1
d) More than 100% of GDP.0

Sources:
http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=hr&v=94 external debt
www.hnb.hr

Over the past 3 years, total external debt as a proportion of GDP:

a) Fell....3
b) Remained constant....2
c) Rose 1-5%.............................................1

d) Rose more than 5% points......0

Sources:
http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=hr&v=94 or www.hnb.hr
BALANCE OF PAYMENT
Compared to exports, imports were:
a) Smaller or in balance..3
b) 1-10% larger.....2
c) 11-20% larger.1
d) More than 20% larger.....0

Sources:
www.worldbank.org

The current account was:

a) In surplus or balance..3
b) In deficit by 1-2% of GDP..2
c) In deficit by 3-4% of GDP...1
d) In deficit by more than 4% of GDP0

Sources: http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=hr&v=145
Government finance:
National government finance was:
a) In surplus or balance 3
b) In deficit by 1-2% of GDP2
c) In deficit by 2-4% of GDP.1
d) In deficit by more than 4% of GDP...0

Sources:

http://www.economywatch.com/economicstatistics/croatia/General_Government_Balance_Percentage_of_GDP/
If government finances are in deficit, they have been so far:
a) Surplus/1 year or less.3
b) 2-5 years....1
c) More than 5 years.0

Sources:
http://www.economywatch.com/economicstatistics/croatia/General_Government_Balance_Percentage_of_GDP/

Over the past 3 years, the ratio of fixed investments to GDP has:
a) Increased....3
b) stagnated1
c) decreased...0

Sources:
http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=hr&v=142

The ratio of total trade (exports +imports) to GDP was:

a) more than 75% 3
b) 51-75%.................................................2
c) 25-50%................................................1
d) Less than 25%......................................0

Sources:
www.imf.org
The annual domestic savings rate was:
a) More than 30%.........................................4

b) 20-30%....................................................3
c) 15-20....2
d) Less than 15%..........................................0

Sources:
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/croatia/gross-domestic-savings-us-dollar-wb-data.html