Fertility Measures

Prof. Maria Paz N. Marquez

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Definition of terms
Fertility
Fecundity
Actual birth performance Physiological capacity of a woman, man or couple to reproduce

The definitions are reversed in the Romance languages. E.g., In Spanish: Fertility = Fecundidad Fecundity = Fertilidad
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Definition of terms
The complete expulsion from its mother the product of conception, irrespective of the duration of pregnancy, which after such separation, breathes or shows any other evidence of life such as beating of the heart, pulsation of the umbilical cord, or definite movement of voluntary muscles, whether or not the umbilical cord has been cut or the placenta is attached, each product or such a birth is considered live-born.
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Live births

Measures of Fertility
Crude birth rate (CBR) General fertility rate (GFR) Age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) Total fertility rate (TFR) Gross reproduction rate (GRR) Net reproduction rate (NRR) Children ever born (CEB) Child woman ratio (CWR)
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Crude birth rate

B CBR y k P
where By = No. of births in year y Py = Midyear population in year y k = Any number, usually 1,000
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Crude birth rate

The simplest measure of fertility and the easiest to calculate.

Why crude?
Because its denominator, includes many people who are not at the risk of childbearing, e.g., women in the ages < 15 and > 49, and men.

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General fertility rate

A more refined measure than the CBR since it restricts the denominator to women of childbearing ages.

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General fertility rate

GFR
where By = W15-49y =

y y

W 15 49

No. of births in year y Midyear population of women 15-49 years old in year y Any number, usually 1,000
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Age-specific fertility rates

Bi ASFRi 1,000 Wi
where B = W = i = Births to women of age group i Midyear population of women in age group i Age group from 1 (15-19) to 7 (45-49)
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Age-specific fertility rates, 1970-2006

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Total Fertility Rates

TFR 5 ASFRi
i 1

where: ASFRi = Age-specific rate for age group i i = Age group from 1 (15-19) to 7 (45-49) means one should add up the age-specific rates
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Computing the TFR

Age group (A) 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 Total 1990 Midyear Population (B) 3,334,851 2,915,284 3,497,266 2,099,718 1,740,925 1,370,176 1,113,170 1990 Births (C) 166,743 553,904 541,907 380,049 208,914 69,879 8,905 1990 ASFR (C)(B) (D) 0.050 0.190 0.155 0.181 0.120 0.051 0.008 0.755

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TFR: Advantages/ Disadvantages

It is easy to interpret. It is a fairly stable all-purpose measure.
Because nobody lives their whole lives stuck in one year, the TFR does not reflect actual experience. One year of low fertility does not mean a whole generation of women will have low fertility. If women begin delaying births, the TFR will indicate fewer births.
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Interpreting the TFR

The TFR is the number of children that would be born alive to a woman during her lifetime if she were to pass through her childbearing years conforming to the age-specific fertility rates of a given period.

TFR = 2 2 children per woman

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Trends in the TFR: 1973-2008

Source: NSO and ICF Macro, 2009

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Gross reproduction rate

100 x TFR GRR = 206

where: 100/206 = The proportion female among live births
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Gross reproduction rate

Similar to TFR except that it is the sum of agespecific rates that include only female life births in the numerator.
The GRR measures the extent to which a hypothetical cohort of women will replace itself, provided no women die in the childbearing years.

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Net reproduction rate

A measure of the number of daughters who will be born to a hypothetical cohort of women, taking into account the mortality of the women from the time of their birth. Those interested to compute for the NRR have to study the technicalities involved in life table preparation.

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Children ever born

Derived by asking women the number of children they ever had Usually tabulated by womans age yielding cumulative fertility of women up to specified points in their childbearing years Limitations:
o o Measures past fertility Children who died young may not be remembered
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Mean no. of CEB among women 15-49: 2008 NDHS

Source: NSO and ICF Macro, 2009

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Child-woman ratio

P0 4 CWR k W 15 49
where P0-4 = W15-49 = k = Population 0-4 years old Women 15-49 years old Any number, usually 1,000
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Advantages of CWR
Does not require a special question in the census. Useful means of obtaining fertility statistics for small areas Can be computed for certain groups of the population where classification of the mother and child by the given characteristic would be the same.
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Disadvantages of CWR
Directly affected by underenumeration of young children. Affected by mortality. Since survival rate is higher among women than children under 5, the ratios always understate recent fertility.
Population 0-5 refers to the survivors not the actual births occurring in the last five years thus the ratio is likely to understate actual fertility If we use ages 5-9 because they are better enumerated, this aggravates the problem because it refers to fertility 7.5 years before the census (thus not a good measure of current fertility) Training Course on Basic Demography
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Which group of women in the world have the highest fertility?

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The Hutterites: Champions of high fertility

26

Fertility rates
Womens age 15-19 25-29 30-34 35-39 Hutterite women (1936-1940) 259 466 462 431 USA women (1940) 136 123 83 46

40-44
45-49

203
48

16
2

27

Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (CPR)

The CPR is expressed as the percentage of women currently using any family
planning (FP) method among currently married women in the ages 15-49 years.

Numerator: Denominator:

Number of Married Women, aged 15-49, in year y, area a Total number of Married Women 15-49, in year y, area a

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Time to do some exercises!

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COMPUTING ASFR:
Age Number of women, May 1, 1990 Adjusted number of women, July 1, 1990 Births in 1990 ASFR

15-19
20-24 25-29 30-34

3,319790
2,902,118 2,485,988 2,090,235

166,743
553,904 541,907 380,049

35-39
40-44 45-49 TOTAL

1,733,089
1,363,988 1,108,143 15,003.351

208,914
69.879 8,905 1,930,301

COMPUTING GRR:
Age ASFR ASFR X proportion of births female (0.4902)

15-19 20-24

50 190

25-29
30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49

217
181 120 51 8

SUM
SUM X 5= GRR (per 1000 women)
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Thank You!