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1. Draft General State Budget Bill for 2012
On Friday March 30th 2012 the Government announced the Draft General State Budget Bill for 2012
which contains a reduction of the Central Government deficit by 1.6 % of GDP. The Central
Government deficit is expected to reach a 3.5 percent of GDP in 2012.
Net Funding(‐)/Borrowing(+) Requirements in percent of GDP
2011 2012 Reduction
Central Government ‐5.1 ‐3.5 ‐1.6
Autonomous Communities ‐2.9 ‐1.5 ‐1.4
Local Governments ‐0.4 ‐0.3 ‐0.1
Social Security Administrations ‐0.1 0.0 ‐0.1
TOTAL ‐8.5 ‐5.3 ‐3.2
The consolidation effort included in the Draft General State Budget Bill for the Central Government
amounts to 2.5% of GDP, approximately €27,300 mn.
This adjustment will be delivered through an increase in income amounting to 0.8% of GDP and an
expenditure reduction of 1.7% of GDP. It should be considered that the total consolidation effort ‐2.5%
of GDP‐ exceeds the adjustment in the deficit. This can be explained by certain expenditures already
committed in the Budget –such as interest payments, the Regional and Local Financing System and
Social Security outlays— which have increased by 0.9% of GDP and have to be compensated by a more
intense adjustment of the Central Government. Therefore the adjustment at the Central Government
level has been grater than would have been otherwise required for achieving the targeted reduction in
deficit.
Measures adopted in the Draft Budget (% of GDP)
Increase in Income 0.8
Expenditure reduction (excl. Committed expenses) 1.7
Fiscal Consolidation Effort 2.5
Committed Expenses ‐0.9
Total Adjustment in Borrowing Requirement 1.6
The most significant measures contained in the Draft Budget for 2012 are the following ones:
• Reduction in the expenditure of Ministries of €13,406 mn, a 16.9% reduction vs. 2011 Budget.
• Tax related measures: elimination of corporate tax rebates, taxes on tobacco and the
temporary increase in Personal Income tax adopted in January 2012 (€12,314 mn).
The income related measures (elimination of corporate tax rebates and taxes on tobacco) have already
entered into force with the approval of the Royal Decree Law 12/2012, March 30th; its approval is
therefore independent from the Budget ratification process. Moreover, the income tax increase did
already enter into force at the end of 2011 (Royal Decree Law 20/2011 December 30th) together with
an expenditure reduction equivalent to 40% of the expenditure measures contained in the Draft
Budget.
2. Debt to GDP projections
In this context, the Debt to GDP ratio of General Government would reach at end 2012 79.8%
percentage points of GDP, from 68.5% one year earlier. Most of this increase will be borne by the
Central Government Administrations (See, Table 1), for which the ratio is forecasted to reach a 60% of
GDP.
Table 1. Debt to GDP projections for the General Government Administrations and for the Central
Government, Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP).
Debt to GDP ratio in percent of GDP
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (forecast)
General Government 40.2 53.9 61.2 68.5 79.8
Central Government 30.6 41.9 46.4 52.1 60.0
GDP 1,087,749 1,047,831 1,051,342 1,073,383 1,065,400
The increase in the Debt to GDP ratio of the Central Government, which is set to increase from a 52.1%
in 2011 to a 60% of GDP, can be tracked to the following factors:
Factor Percentage points of GDP
Funding Requirements of the Central
3.5
Government Administrations
Reclassification of accounts payable of Local
and Regional Administrations to financial
3.1
debt (EDP) of the Central Government
Administrations (FFPP and ICO‐CCAA)
FADE 1.0
Loans to Greece, Ireland and Portugal
0.9
according to Spanish key in EFSF loans
Effect of the lower denominator (nominal
0.4
GDP)
Rest of factors ‐1.0
TOTAL 7.9
3. Central Government Funding Programme for 2012
The Draft Budget for the Central Government for 2012 forecasts a funding requirement of 36,826
million Euros, 30% less than the figure delivered in 2011 (€52,816 mn) 1 .
This number is the sum of the Central Government’s forecasted cash deficit (€33,397 mn), the net
change in financial assets (€1,929 mn), due to the international commitment relative to the ESM and
1.5 billion Euros, related to the capital endowment of the Fund for the Payment to Suppliers (FFPP, in
its Spanish acronym) according to Royal Decree Law 7/2012 of March 9th.
Tesoro funding in 2012 (Billion Euro)
1: Funding requirement (=Net Issuance) 36.8
2: Redemptions of medium‐ and long‐term bonds ‐50.1
3: Net issuance medium‐ and long‐term bonds 35.8
4 = 2 + 3: Gross issuance of medium and long‐term bonds 85.9
5: Net increase in T‐Bills 1.0
6 = 5 + 3: Net change in outstanding debt 36.8
7: Forecast Outstanding Central Government Debt at end 2011 628.9
* Incluye deuda en divisas, bonos y obligaciones y deudas asumidas.
Importes efectivos.
Until April 1st the Spanish Treasury has already funded 40.4 billion (47.0%) of the total expected
amount of medium‐ and long‐term gross issuance of 86 billion euro, well ahead of its funding
programme for the year.
The Spanish Treasury maintains its commitment to every auction scheduled for 2012, and will
therefore adapt its pace of issuance in the following months to smoothly meet its funding targets for
2012.
1
In EDP terms.