Social Forces, University of North Carolina Press

Marital Happiness, Marital Duration, and the U-Shaped Curve: Evidence from a Five-Wave Panel Study Author(s): Jody VanLaningham, David R. Johnson, Paul Amato Reviewed work(s): Source: Social Forces, Vol. 79, No. 4 (Jun., 2001), pp. 1313-1341 Published by: Oxford University Press Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2675474 . Accessed: 06/04/2012 11:08
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MaritalHappiness, Marital Duration, and the U-Shaped Curve:Evidencefrom a Five-WavePanel Study*

JODY VANLANINGHAM, Universityof Nebraska-Lincoln DAVID R. JOHNSON, Universityof Nebraska-Lincoln PAUL AMATO, PennsylvaniaState University

Abstract Previous research suggests U-shaped a pattern marital of happiness thelifecourse, over withhappiness declining the earlyyearsof marriage risingin the lateryears. in and studies havebeenlimited theuseof cross-sectional ornonprobability data Mostprior by In samples. contrast, presentstudyis basedon datafrom a national,17-year,5the wavepanelsample.Usingcross-sectional from thefirstwave,we replicate Udata the shapedrelationship between maritalhappiness maritalduration. an analysis and In basedon a fixed-effects modelwith multiple-wave pooledtime-series paneldata,we durations no supportfor upturn an in at and find declines marital happiness all marital in maritalhappiness the lateryears.Therelationship in between maritalhappiness and maritaldurationis slightlycurvilinear, with the steepestdeclinesin marital and Whenotherlifehappiness occurring duringtheearliest latest yearsof marriage. coursevariables controlled, significant are a negativeeffectof maritaldurationon marital remains. mostmarriage For marital declined more happiness cohorts, happiness in the 1980sthanin the1990s,suggesting periodeffect. a Thisstudy evidence provides that the U-shaped overthe life courseis an artifactof patternof maritalhappiness cross-sectional research is not typical U.S.marriages. and of

Since the first study of maritaladjustmentby Hamilton (1929), the mannerin which maritalhappinesschangesover the life course has been a majortopic of interest among family scholars. Most studies suggest a U-shaped association characterized high maritalhappinessin the early (or preparental)years of by
* This research was supportedin part by Grant5 ROIAG04146from the National Institute on Aging. Direct correspondenceto David R. Johnson, Department of Sociology, University of Nebraska, Lincoln,NE 68588-0324. E-mail: djohnson2@unl.edu.

?C) Universityof North CarolinaPress The

SocialForces,June 2001, 78(4):1313-1341

1314 / Social Forces 79:4, June 2001 marriage,a decline in maritalhappinessduringthe middle (or parental)years, and a rise in maritalhappinessin the later (or postparental) years.Beliefin this curvilinearpattern is widespread,and descriptionsof the U-shaped curve are common in familytextbooks(e.g., Cherlin1996;Collins& Coltrane1995;Gelles 1995). In a review of researchon maritalqualityconducted during the 1970s, Spanier Lewis(1980)reported and strongsupportfor the curvilinear pattern. And in a review of researchon maritalqualityconducted during the 1980s, Glenn (1990) commentedthat"acurvilinear relationship betweenfamilystageandsome aspectsof maritalqualityis about as close to being certainas anythingever is in the socialsciences"(33). In spite of the widespreadbelief in a U-shaped associationbetween marital duration stage)andmarital (or a alternative happiness, fewstudiessuggest patterns, with some showing a continuous decline in maritalhappiness,some showing a continuous increase in marital happiness, and some showing no significant associationof any kind. For example,in a recentstudy,Glenn (1998) compared marital cohortsin repeated crosssectionsfromthe General SocialSurvey found and a patternof continuousdeclinein maritalsuccess.Furthermore, majorityof the studies support U-shaped that the curvecontainserious methodological limitations, includingthe use of cross-sectional datato reachconclusionsabout changeover time and the use of nonprobability samples to make inferences about the individuals. Becauseof theselimitations, arguethatthe we populationof married betweenmaritalhappinessand maritaldurationhas not yet U-shapedassociation been unequivocally demonstrated. The presentstudyattemptsto clarifythe mannerin which maritalhappiness changesoverthe life course.To accomplishthis goal,we drawon a national,17In year,5-wavepanelstudyof married individuals. the firststepof our analysis, we use datafrom the initialwave of interviewsto replicatepreviouscross-sectional studies.In the secondstep,we use pooled time-seriesmodelswith multiple-wave datato gaina clearer of duration marital betweenmarital and picture the association - such as the presence and happiness, we includea variety life-course of variables of childrenof variousages in the household- to see whetherthey explainthe In association. the finalstep,we explorewhetherthe association betweenmarital duration marital and varies withgender(husbands wives),race(blacks vs. happiness versusnonblacks),and marriage cohort.

Review of Previous Research

CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDIES

A largenumberof cross-sectional studiessuggestthat maritalqualitydeclinesin the early in In and Rollins yearsof marriage improves the lateryears. a typicalstudy, and Feldman(1970) examinedmaritalsatisfaction a sampleof predominantly in

MaritalHappiness and MaritalDuration / 1315

middle-class,white, one-earner couples in New YorkCity. Based on marital duration,age of the oldest child, and residenceof children,respondentswere classifiedinto one of eight stagesof the familylife cycle.The findingssuggested that maritalsatisfactiondeclinessteadilyfrom the beginningof the marriage to the stagewith school-agechildren,levels off as childrengrow into adolescence, andincreases fromthe empty-nest stageto the retirement stage.Someothercrosssectionalstudiessupportingthe U-shapedassociationareAnderson,Russell,and Schumm (1983), Burr (1970), Condie and Doan (1978), Gilfordand Bengtson (1979),Glenn(1989),Gurin,Veroff, Feld(1960),Johnsonet al. (1986),Lawson and (1988), Lupriand Frideres(1981), Miller (1976), Peterson(1990), Rollins and Cannon (1974), Smartand Smart(1975), and Spanier, Lewis,and Cole (1975). More recentstudiescontinue to replicatethis result.For example,Orbuchet al. (1996) found a U-shaped associationbetween maritalsatisfactionand marital in accounted duration a largenational sample. Theyalsofoundthathavingchildren for some of the apparentdecline in satisfactionin the earlyyears of marriage, whereasdeclinesin workand parental responsibilities accountedfor much of the in increasein maritalsatisfaction the lateryears. apparent In Not all cross-sectional studies,however, reveala U-shapedassociation. their study of 900 Detroitwives, Blood and Wolfe (1960) found a gradualdecline in marital satisfactionthroughout the child-rearingyears, a slight rise after the declinethroughthe yearsof retirement. More launchingof children, a further and recently, Glenn(1998),usingpooled datafromthe 1973-94General SocialSurvey, founda U-shapedassociation durationandmarital success(being betweenmarital When marriedand very happy)when the datawere examinedcross-sectionally. the datawere separated marriagecohort,however,the relatively by high level of success in marriagesof long duration appearedto result largelyfrom cohort with olderindividuals thanyounger differences, havingmore successful marriages individuals. Indeed,Glenn's analysis suggeststhatmaritalsuccessdeclinessharply then continuesto decline,albeitmoreslowly, duringthe firstten yearsof marriage, Gilford(1984),GlennandWeaver duringthe next fortyyearsof marriage. (1978), Hudsonand Murphy(1980), and Medlingand McCarrey (1981) havealso failed to findthe expected and curvilinear association betweenmarital satisfaction marital duration using cross-sectionaldata. In spite of these exceptions,however,the of studiessupportthe curvilinear majority cross-sectional pattern.
LONGITUDINAL STUDIES

Most longitudinal studiesof maritalqualityshow thatmaritalhappiness(or some relateddimension of maritalquality)declinesin the first few yearsof marriage (Huston,McHale& Crouter1986;Johnson,Amoloza& Booth 1992;Karney& Bradbury1995; Kurdek1998; Leonard& Roberts 1998; Lindahl,Clements& and Markman1998).Manyof thesestudiesbeginwith newlyweds, however, most

1316 / Social Forces 79:4, June 2001 lastlessthanten years.Fewstudieshavefollowedcouplesfromthe middleyearsof marriage into the lateryears.Consequently, most longitudinalstudieshavebeen unableto determinewhethermaritalqualityimproves,flattensout, or continues to declinelaterin the marriage. The fewlongitudinal studiesthathavefollowedcouplesfromthe middleto the lateryearsof marriagedo not providea consistentpicture.Weishausand Field (1988) studied17 couplesmarriedfor fiftyyearsor longerand found supportfor a curvilinear pattern, with a dip in positiveaffectduringthe middleyearsfollowed In Pineo (1961) followed400 couplesfor twentyyearsand by a recovery. contrast, Similarresultswere found a patternof gradual continuous"disenchantment." but reported by Johnson, Amoloza, and Booth (1992) in an eight-yearstudy of individualsof various marital durations. In an eleven-yearstudy of Mexican Americanfamilies in San Antonio, Markideset al. (1999) found a decline in positive interaction for wives as they made the transition to old age but no Vaillant Vaillant and corresponding changeforhusbands. (1993)usedretrospective data in their study of 104 men and their wives. They and prospectiveforty-year foundsupport the U-shaped for trendusingretrospective but no support data using data.Existing fail longitudinal longitudinal studies,therefore, to provideconsistent supportfor an upturnin maritalhappinessin laterlife. Giventhe smallnumber of studiesand the inconsistentset of findings,additionallongitudinalresearch is necessary determine marital to how happiness changes the lateryearsof marriage. in

Theory Drawing on a variety of perspectives, we outline three explanations for developmentalchange in maritalhappiness.Each of these perspectivesmakes somewhat different aboutthe association betweenmarital duration and predictions marital happiness. We use Featherman and Learner's(1985) definition of as developmental changeas mean changesin a groupof individuals theyprogress socialand historicalcontext. throughthe life coursewithin a particular
CHANGES IN FAMILY ROLES AND STRUCTURE

The most widely used conceptualmodel for explainingthe U-shaped trend in maritalhappinessfocuseson changesin familyrolesand structures (Aldous1978; Duvall1977;Hill &Mattessich 1979;Rodgers 1964).Manystudieshavehighlighted children(and the agesof children) the apparenteffectof addingand subtracting on the qualityof interactionbetweenhusbandsand wives.Thesestudiesassume that demands parents' on timeandincome- demands increase thatchildren create to parents'feelingsof stressand decreasethe amount of time available engagein sharedleisureactivities(Rollins& Galligan1978;White,Booth &Edwards 1986). that husbandsand wiveswith studiesdemonstrate Indeed,many cross-sectional

MaritalHappiness and MaritalDuration / 1317

childrenin the home reportlowermaritalqualitythan do those withoutchildren (Houseknecht 1979; McLanahan Adams 1989; Nock 1979; Renne 1970). If & childrencreatestresswithin marriage, then maritalhappinessshould decline as childrenare added, decline even more as childrenmove into the problematic with this notion, adolescent years,and improveas the nest is emptied.Consistent studiesshowthatmarital declinesfollowingthe short-term longitudinal happiness & firstbirth(Belsky, Spanier& Rovine1983;Kurdek 1998;Leonard Roberts1998; when children leavethe parental home (Menaghan Menaghan 1983)andincreases 1983;White& Edwards 1990). otherfamilychanges,suchas Althoughmost studieshavefocusedon children, the movement of wives into and out of the paid workforce, changes in homeownership,increases(or declines) in family income, and retirementalso in that represent transformations familyrolesand structure can affectindividuals' evaluations theirmarriages. example,maritalhappinessmight increasein of For the lateryearsof marriage couplesbecome more financiallystable,own their as own homes, and enterretirement. Consistentwith this notion, Lee (1989) found thatdecreases responsibilities roledemandsin the lateryearswereassociated in and with higher marital quality. Similarly,Myers and Booth (1996) found that whenhusbands high-stress left retirement associated highermarital was with quality they are jobs. Becausethese eventsare correlated with the durationof marriage, and likelyto accountfor much of the associationbetweendurationof marriage would not be maritalhappiness.Marriages do not undergothesetransitions that expectedto undergodevelopmental changein maritalquality.
AND INDIVIDUAL PROCESSESIN THE EARLYYARS OF MARRIAGE SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGICAL

It is apparent, both in the U.S. and elsewhere(Fisher1992), that the emotional attraction betweenspousesgenerally peaksat the beginningof the maritalunion effect is and declinesover the next few years.The existenceof a "honeymoon" consistentwith the family role and structureassumptionthat the addition of childrenincreases stressin the marriage. Declinesin maritalhappiness,however, alsoareapparent & amongchildless couples(Belsky, Spanier Rovine1983;Lindahl, Clements& Markman 1998; McHale& Huston 1985; White & Booth 1985). the Therefore, declinein maritalhappinessduringthe firstfewyearsof marriage cannotbe due solelyto the additionof childrento the household. for refer happiness Social-psychological explanations the earlydeclinein marital to interactional processesbetweenspouses.Newlymarriedcouplesarefacedwith ties a manychallenges, includingestablishing divisionof labor,redefining to kin, Initialhigh expectations and learninghow to handleconflictin the relationship. at the formationof the union may become temperedby the realitiesof married life. Booth (1999) and Glenn (1996) argue that newlyweds'expectations are unrealisticallyhigh, with many individuals assuming that marriagewill be a

1318 / Social Forces 79:4, June 2001

continuoussourceof personalfulfillment self-actualization an expectation and that most marriages cannotmeet. Thisproblemis exacerbated individuals if hide some of their faults from their future spouses prior to marriage,resultingin a process of gradualdisillusionmentafterthe wedding (Huston& Houts 1998). Anotherexplanationis based on the assumptionthat people exhibit individual changesin attitudes,values,and life-stylepreferences throughoutthe life course. Pineo (1961)hasargued thatspousesusuallymarryat the timewhentheyaremost with one another.But as time passes,individualsexperiencegradual, compatible random changesthat lead to a "poorerfit."Such a tendencyis consistentwith exchange theory (Sabatelli& Shehan 1993), which assumes that the marital exchange basedon valuedcharacteristics eachpartner is that bringsto the marriage. These characteristics likelyto changeover time, disruptingthe equityof the are exchangeand resultingin a declinein maritalhappiness. Fromthe perspective individualpsychology, of declinesin maritalhappiness may reflect habituation to the relationship. Behavioral psychologists have demonstrated that individuals gradually habituate - psychologically and physiologically to a repeatedstimulus (Loweet al. 1985). Call,Sprecher, and Schwartz (1995)usedhabituation otherfactors)to accountfor the (amongseveral declinein the frequency sexualactivityamongmarriedcouplesovertime. The of decline in marital satisfactionmay have a biological foundation in the brain chemicalphenylethylamine PEA),which has been associated with feelingsof (or well-beingand the "high" followinga new romanticrelationship(Fisher1992). The declinein happiness may occureitherbecauseneuronsbecomehabituated to the effectsof PEAor becauselevelsof PEAdeclineover time. In contrastto explanationbased on changesin familyroles and structures, assumethatthe declinein maritalhappinessin social-psychological explanations the early years of marriagereflects intrinsic aspects of the evolving marital relationship developments that arelargelyindependentof role and structural changes. Similarly, psychological physiological and explanations placethe locus of If changeentirelywithinthe individual. thesemodels arecorrect,then we should observea sharpdeclinein maritalqualityoverthe firstfewyearsof marriage, net of changessuch as the additionof children.Furthermore, unlikethe familyrole and structure and modelsdo not perspective, social-psychological individualistic in predictan upturnin marital happiness the lateryearsof marriage. these Instead, of perspectives suggesta stabilization maritalhappinessafterthe firstfew years, albeitat a lowerlevelthan when the marriage began.
PERIOD AND COHORT EFFECTS

Periodeffectsalsomayplaya rolein explaining link betweenmaritalduration the and maritalhappiness. to According this view,shiftsin maritalhappiness maynot reflectintrinsicmarriage processesas much as they reflectchangesin the larger

MaritalHappiness and MaritalDuration / 1319

social and economic environment of married couples in recent decades. For example, manymarriages, regardless duration, of havebeen affected the erosion by of men'srealwagessince 1973.Economichardship to men'sdecliningincome due has been linked to maritaldiscord and more problematicfamily relationships (Conger&Elder1994; Voydanoff 1988).In addition, potentialforwork-family the conflicthas increasedwith the rise in labor-forceparticipationamong married mothersof young children.In 1960only 19%of married motherswith preschool childrenwere in the labor force, comparedwith 65%in 1995 (Spain& Bianchi 1996). Numerous observershave documentedthe potential for the conflicting demandsof workand familyto createstressfor parents- stressthat often spills overandaffects qualityof marital the relations (Boothet al. 1984; Voydanoff 1988). Changesin genderrelationsin the largersocietyalso may createstresswithin Both women and men - but particularly women - have particular marriages. become less traditionalin their genderattitudessince the late 1960s (Thornton 1989). In a longitudinalstudy,Amato and Booth (1995) found that wives who attitudesbecameless satisfiedwith theirmarriages and adoptedmore egalitarian discord. viewsmust reported greater Presumably, wiveswho adoptnontraditional workandfamilyresponsibilities theirhusbands previous that negotiate with cohorts of wivestook for granted, thus raisingthe potentialfor tensionin the relationship. The householddivision of labor,in particular, becamecontentiousin many has marriages. Research consistentlydocumentsthe fact that husbandsperformless houseworkand child care than wives, even when wives are employedfull-time thatthe household (Hochschild1989;Robinson& Godbey1997).Theperception division of labor is unfairis a cause of conflict in many marriages(Hochschild in increases wives'earningsand growing 1989;Pina& Bengtson1993).Moreover, beliefsabout genderequalityhave encouraged wives to pressfor more decisionmaking power, thus challenging the status quo and generatingconflict with husbands(Thompson1991). Furthermore, some scholars believe that there has been a growth of individualistic values in U.S. culture (Bellahet al. 1985; Glenn 1996;Popenoe 1988). Becausedivorce is readilyavailable,individualisticspouses may invest littleeffortin resolvingdisagreements, erodingrelationship relatively thus quality and stability(Amato& Rogers1999). Becausethe largersocialenvironmenthas become less hospitableto marriage,some declines in maritalqualityobserved within recent longitudinal studies may reflect period effects rather than developmental processesintrinsicto the marriage. in the Correspondingly, "improvement" maritalqualityin the lateryearsoften ratherthan observedin cross-sectional studiesmay reflectintercohortdifferences in olderindividuals longer-duration developmental changes. Specifically, marriages and youngerpersonsin shorter-duration differentmarriage marriages represent cohorts.Marriages fromoldercohortsoccurred withina more amongindividuals

1320 / Social Forces 79:4, June 2001

traditional context- with a lowerdivorcerate,more socialsupportfor marriage, and a greatercommitmentto the norm of lifelongmarriage than have more cohorts from earliermarriage recentmarriages. this reason,olderindividuals For stable)levelsof maritalqualitythan more recent may havehigher(and relatively cohorts.Theseintercohort differences wouldappear a risein happiness as marriage consistent with data in in the lateryearsof marriage cross-sectional - a prediction Glenn's(1998) analysis.

Contributions of the Present Study a between association of appears support curvilinear to Thepreponderance evidence Somestudies,however, suggestalternative marital durationandmarital happiness. may be due to the fact that most studies in this patterns.These discrepancies areas drawnfromnarrow geographic are samples literature basedon nonprobability makeit difficult betweensamples or fromspecific demographic groups.Differences the to comparefindingsand to generalize resultsto largerpopulations.The most however,is its extensiverelianceon crosstroublesomeaspectof this literature, sectionaldata,which cannot distinguishdevelopmental trendsfrom intercohort in a differences. Also, marriedindividuals oldercohortsrepresent selectgroupof that that with unhappymarriages endedin divorcebeing marriages havesurvived, in of Consequently, a cross-sectional persons. selected of thepopulation married out in in may increases maritalhappiness the lateryearsof marriage sample,apparent married of reflect differences to the departure the mostunhappily due compositional couples from the sample through divorce.Addressingthis issue, Glenn (1990) data from a sample of marriedpersons are not, concludesthat "cross-sectional for strictlyspeaking,appropriate a causalanalysisin which maritalqualityis the variable" (820). dependent the some of the methodological limitationsof priorresearch, study Toaddress the overthe life happiness hereattempts determine patternof marital to presented course througha comprehensiveanalysisof 5-wave, 17-yearpanel data from a We sampleof marriedindividuals. begin with a crossnationallyrepresentative sectional analysisusing the first wave of interviewsto replicatethe U-shaped associationrevealedin most previous studies.We then conduct a longitudinal analysisusingthe 5-wave,17-yeardata.The longitudinalanalysisexpandson the findingsof Johnson,Amoloza,and Booth (1992), which indicatedevelopmental changein maritalhappinessin the firstthreewaves(8 years)of the samedataset. more modelto determine Thepresentstudyusesa fixed-effects pooledtime-series the specifically patternof change. predictsthat The explanatory basedon familyrolesand structures perspective forms association durationandmarital the longitudinal betweenmarital happiness a U-shapedcurve.This perspectivefurtherpredictsthat much of the curvewill

MaritalHappiness and MaritalDuration / 1321

"disappear" appropriate with controlsfor changesin familyroles and structure, such as the additionor subtractionof childrenfrom the household.In contrast, perspectives based on dyadicprocesses(such as disillusionment)or individual processes(such as habituation) predicta downward trendin maritalhappinessin the firstfewyearsof marriage followedby stabilization with no resurgence the in lateryears. perspective A basedon periodeffectsalsopredicts downward a trendin maritalhappiness- not only becauseof intrinsicrelationship processesbut also becausecouples have been exposed to an economic and social environmentin recentdecadesthatis unsupportive marriage. of Indeed,an explanation basedon period effects (unlike an explanationbased on dyadic or individualprocesses) suggeststhe possibilityof a decline in happinessextendingbeyond the first few yearsof marriage. more or less continuousdeclinemay occurbecausemarital A problemsthat have their origins in largersocial conditions (such as declinesin men'sincome,work-family conflict,disagreements genderroles,andgrowing over individualism)are unlikelyto abate as long as these social conditions remain unchanged. a Finally, cohortperspective assumes a curvilinear that trendwill appear in cross-sectional but not in longitudinal data data.Of course,explanations based on dyadicprocesses,habituation, periodand cohorteffectsarenot mutually and and exclusive, it maynot be possibleto distinguish betweenthem in anyone study. Nevertheless, theseperspectives (whichpredictno upwardtrendin happinessin the lateryearsof marriage) contrastsharply with the morewidelyacceptedfamily roleand structure perspective, whichpredictsan upwardtrendin happiness the in lateryearsof marriage.

Methods
DATA

The datafor this studyarefromthe Marital overthe LifeCoursestudy, Instability a five-wave panelstudyof a nationalsampleof marriedpersonsfollowedover 17 years(Boothet al. 1999).Respondents wereinterviewed telephone 1980,1983, in by 1988,1992,and 1997.Duringthe firstwaveof the study,randomdigitdialingwas used to selecta sampleof marriedindividuals aged55 and under.Among eligible the households, interview rate completion forthe initialwaveof the studywas65%, yieldinga samplesize of 2,034. The responseratesfor the reinterviews were 78% in 1983, 84% in 1988, 89% in 1992, and 88% in 1997. When comparedwith national data, the original sample was found to be representative the U.S. of populationwith respectto age,race,householdsize,presenceof children, housing tenure, and region, althoughresidentsof largemetropolitanareaswere slightly underrepresented (Booth & Johnson1985).We evaluated whetherpersonsfrom weremore likelyto leavethe studythanthose fromhappier unhappier marriages In marriages. an event-history neithermaritalhappiness 1980nor that in analysis,

1322 / Social Forces 79:4, June 2001

in the wave immediatelyprecedingthe attrition(a time-varyingcovariate)was A model significantly related attrition to throughthe fifthwaveof the study. hazard in of personsin the firstthreeyearsof marriage 1980 (the groupleastlikelyto be marital disruptionrateof 35% affected left-censuring by bias) estimateda 12-year to (Johnson Booth 1998),whichis similar nationalratesfor this cohort(Sweet& & Bumpass1987).We concludethatthe impactof selectionbias due to attritionon the relationshipbetween maritaldurationand maritalhappinessis minimal in thesedata. We used two data sets from the largerstudy.The first consistedof the crosssectionaldatafrom the firstwave.The second dataset was basedon pooled data fromallfivewaves.Thepooledsampleincludedallrespondents werein intact who to marriages (andmarried the samespouse)for at leasttwo wavesof the studyand forwhom completeinformation available the measures was on usedin thisanalysis. who remarried duringthe courseof the study.) (Weincludeddatafromindividuals In this dataset, eachindividualhad as many recordsas wavesmeetingthe above criteria.The resultingsample comprised 1,479 individualsrepresenting1,530 The separate marriages. totalsize of the pooled samplewas 5,932,and the average numberof wavesper respondentwas 3.88.
MEASUREMENT

Marital Happiness

with an 11-itemscalereflecting Marital was people'sfeelings happiness measured were towardvariousaspectsof the maritalrelationship. respondents Specifically, askedto reporttheirdegreeof happinesswith (1) the amount of understanding receivedfromtheirspouse,(2) the amountof love and affectionreceived,(3) the extent to which they and their spouse agree about things, (4) their sexual relationship, theirspouseas someonewho takescareof thingsaroundthe house, (5) to faithfulness (6) theirspouseas someoneto do thingswith,and (7) theirspouse's them.Responses theseitemsranged to from1 ("very to happy") 3 ("nottoo happy"). all also were askedthe following:(1) "Taking things together,how Respondents is wouldyou describe Wouldyou saythatyourmarriage veryhappy, yourmarriage? or (2) to you pretty happy, not too happy?" "Compared othermarriages knowabout, do you thinkyour marriage betterthan most, aboutthe sameas most, or not as is as most?"and (3) "Comparing your marriageto three years ago, is your good The marriage gettingbetter,stayingthe same,or gettingworse?" finalitem asked from1 ("extremely to of respondents ratetheirfeelings lovefortheirspouse,ranging strong")to 5 ("not strongat all").This item was recodedto a three-pointrange with the otheritems.With all itemscodedso that (1, 1.5,2, 2.5, 3) to be consistent maritalhappiness,scores on the summatedscale a high score indicatedgreater in rangedfrom 11to 33. Themeanscorefor respondents the firstwaveof the panel of deviation 4.01.The multiple-wave panelsample studywas28.50with a standard

MaritalHappiness and MaritalDuration / 1323

usedin the secondstageof the analysis yieldeda meanscoreof 28.11witha standard deviationof 4.15.Thismeasure reliable was with Cronbach's alphasof .87, .84, .88, and .88 in the five panelwaves. .89,
Marital Duration

Marital durationwas includedas a continuousvariable, measured the number by of yearsthe respondent marriedat the time of the interview. was in Respondents the 1980sample(usedin the cross-sectional analysis) marriages had rangingfrom 0 to 38 yearsin duration,with a mean of 12.50yearsand a standard deviationof in 9.13.Marital durationamongrespondents this samplewastruncated 38 years at becauseonly adultswho wereunderage 55 in 1980were includedin the sample. The pooled sampleused in the second stage of the analysisincludedmarriages in ranging durationfrom0 to 54 years,with a meanlengthof 19.31and a standard deviationof 10.80.
Control Variables

The cross-sectional analysisof 1980dataincludeda set of variables controlfor to the effectsof socialanddemographic factors. Thesevariables includedgender, race, and education. Gender and race were both included as dichotomous terms (O= male, 1 = female; 0 = not black, 1 = black). Education was included as a continuousvariablemeasuredin years. Additional The variables wereincludedin thepooledtime-series analysis. fixedeffectsmodelemployedin this analysis controlled alltime-invariant for differences betweenindividuals,both observedand unobserved(Allison 1994;Jasso1985). socialbackground variables aretime-invariant nearly (such that or so Consequently, as educational werenot includedin this model.However, included attainment) we variables may changeoverthe life courseand affectmaritalhappiness. that These variablesinclude familyincome, homeownership,ages and numberof children in in the household, retirement. and Incomewasmeasured dollars wasadjusted and for cost-of-living betweenthe wavesby expressing differences themin 1997dollars. Individuals with missingdataon the incomevariable wereassigned mean,and the a dummyvariable(coded 1 for casesmissingdataon income and 0 for all others) also was included.Homeownership coded 0 for rentersand 1 for those who was ownedor werebuyingtheirhome at the time of the interview. set of fivevariables A was includedto represent numberof childrenin certainagerangespresentin the the household at the time of the interview. The age ranges were infants (underage2), preschoolers (aged2-5), school-agechildren(aged6-12), teenagers was status indicated (aged13-18),andadultchildren (aged19andover).Retirement by a 1 if the husbandwas retiredat the time of the interviewand 0 otherwise.

1324 / Social Forces 79:4, June 2001

ANALYSIS

The cross-sectional model is basedon ordinaryleast-squares regression analysis, while the pooled time-seriesdatawereanalyzed with a fixed-effects pooled timeseriesmodel.Theselatterestimates werecalculated usingthe procedures STATA in 1999).The fixed-effects (StataCorp pooled time-seriesstatistical model has been used widelyby econometricians analyzepanel data,but it has receivedmore to limitedattentionin the fieldof sociology(Allison1994),althoughtherehavebeen of severalrecentapplications fixed-effects modelsto familydata(Cherlin,ChaseLansdale& McRae 1998; Lichter,McLaughlin& Ribar 1997; Nock 1998; see Johnson 1995 for a comparisonof pooled time-seriesmodels to other methods routinelyused in the quantitative analysisof panel datain familyresearch). The fixed-effects pooled time-seriesmethodhasbeen shown to be effectivein estimating the effects of events or other time-varying factors on individual outcomes, as well as in addressingdevelopmentalpatternswith a continuous dependent variable (Allison 1994; Johnson 1995). The technique has several advantages makeit especially that well suitedfor analyzingthe longitudinaldata in this study.Theseadvantages include(1) the abilityto analyzedatafrom all five wavesof the panelstudy,eventhoughthe time intervals betweenthe wavesof data collectionwere not equal;(2) the abilityto include respondentswith data from two, three,four,and five waves of the panel study;and (3) the abilityto obtain of unbiasedestimates changeovertime, as measured marital duration.Because by all time-invariant influences, both observed and unobserved, are implicitly in are of controlled the fixed-effects model,the model'sestimates independent the effectsof birthcohort,marriage cohort,selectionbias,andall othertime-invariant differences betweenindividuals.

Results
CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSIS OF

1980

DATA

Descriptivestatisticsfor the variablesincludedin the cross-sectional analysisof the 1980waveof panel dataarepresentedin Table1. betweenmaritalhappinessscoresand marital Figure1 showsthe relationship We durationin the cross-sectional (wave1) sample. plottedthe shapeof the curve with Lowess(locallyweightedscatterplot smoother).Lowessfitsa smoothedcurve based on a set of regressionsfor each observationthat use a proportionof the observationsclosest to the x value (we used .35). The techniquealso includesa procedure to reduce the impact of outliers (Fox 1991). The smoothed curve reproducedthe classicU-shaped curve found in many cross-sectionalstudies. reached theirlowestlevel levelswerehighfor short-duration Happiness marriages,

MaritalHappiness and MaritalDuration / 1325 TABLE1: Descriptive Statistics for Mriables Included in 1980 Cross-Sectional and Pooled Time-Series Data
Variable Cross-sectional 1980 data Marital happiness Years married Gender(1 = female) Race(1 = black) Education (N= 1,966) data Pooled time-series Maritalhappiness Maritalduration(in years) Income Income-missingindicator Homeownership(O= rent) Retirement(1 = husbandretired) Number of childrenin household Infants Preschoolers School-age Teenagers Adultchildren (N= 5,932) Mean S.D. Range

28.50 12.50 .60 .05 13.44

4.01 9.13 .49 .21 2.61

11.5-33.0 0-38 0-1 0-1 0-25

28.11 19.31 53,303.67 .02 .89 .05 .08 .22 .33 .37 .27

4.15 10.80 23,079.95 .15 .33 .22 .29 .51 .47 .66 .59

11-33 0-54.43 2,500-125,359 0-1 0-1 0-1 0-2 0-4 0-2 0-4 0-5

in marriages 15-18 years'duration,and gradually of increasedafter20 yearsof

marriage.

We next used threeregressionmodels with durationtreatedas a continuous variableto explorethis U-shapedcurveand determinewhetherit held up after In variables. model 1 in Table2, we found no controllingfor severalbackground significantlinear relationshipbetween maritaldurationand maritalhappiness. to Model2 addedyearsmarried the squared the equationand confirmed presence of a significant < .01) quadratic A (p relationship. model (not shownhere)with a cubic term was also tested but was not statisticallysignificant.This quadratic smoothed relationship (alsoplottedin Figure1) corresponded closelyto the Lowess curve.In model 3 we addedcontrolsfor race,gender,and education.While race and genderweresignificantly relatedto maritalhappiness(withblacksand wives the less maritalhappinessthan nonblacksand husbands,respectively), reporting betweenmaritaldurationand maritalhappinessremained curvilinear association

1326 / Social Forces 79:4, June 2001

FIGURE 1: Marital Happiness by Marital Duration for 1980 Sample: Lowess and Quadratic Curves

32 -

Lowess ?) c 30 -

Quadratic

I
a

28

260 10 Number of years 20 married to current 30 spouse 40

essentiallyunchanged.The overall associationbetween maritalhappinessand in maritaldurationwasnot strongand accountedfor less than 1%of the variance model 2. However,the differencebetween individualsat the lowest and highest in deviation marital pointsof the curverepresented aboutone-fourthof a standard a moderatedifferencebetween these key groups (Cohen happiness,suggesting with the resultsof previouscross1988).Moreimportant, patternis consistent the sectional studies. The next step was to assess whether this pattern held using data. longitudinal
LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS OF THE MULTIPLE-WAVE PANEL DATA

Descriptivestatisticsfor all of the variablesincluded in the pooled time-series analysisof the panel dataarereportedin Table1. The resultsof five models,basedon fixed-effects pooled time-series regression in are the 3. analyses, presented Table Thefirstthreemodelsevaluated type of curve that fits the association Model 1 betweenmaritaldurationand maritalhappiness. showed a significantlinear decline in maritalhappinesswith maritalduration (f3= -.076, p < .001). A test for a quadraticrelationshipin model 2 was also statistically significant(p < .001), as was the cubic term in model 3 (p < .001). The curveimpliedby model 3 is plottedin Figure2. The curveshows a relatively

MaritalHappiness and MaritalDuration / 1327

TABLE Unstandardized 2: Coefficients Regression Marital for of Happinesson MaritalDurationin 1980Cross-Sectional Sample
MaritalHappiness IndependentVariables Years married Years married2 Race(1 = black) Gender(1= female) Education Constant
R2 * p <.05 **p <.01

Model 1 -.0100

Model 2 -.0275* .0038**

Model 3 -.0258* .0036** -1.6984** -.7810** .0340 26.9100 .0250

28.6232 .0005

28.5234 .0062

steep initial decline in maritalhappinesswith a graduallyflattening,but still declining,slope until around40 years'duration.After40 yearsof marriage, the it slope declines more steeply.While significantlycurvilinear, is clear that this the data. patterndoes not reproduce U-shapedcurvefound in the cross-sectional In the next two modelswe evaluated whethersocioeconomicand life-course factorsaccountedfor the observedpattern.Model 4 addedthe economicfactors, and model 5 addedthe numberof children,in five age categories, presentin the household.None of the economicvariables (includingincome, homeownership, and retirement)was significantly relatedto maritalhappiness.The presenceof childrenin the householdwas significantly relatedto maritalhappiness.For all five age categories, numberof childrenwas negatively the associated with marital Theseeffects werestatistically happiness. significant, however, onlyforpreschoolers, Withthesecontrolsincluded, and teenagers, adultchildren livingin the household. eachof the marital durationtermsremainedsignificant, althoughthe shapeof the curve(alsoplottedin Figure2) changedsomewhat.The main effectof addingthe variables relatedto childrenwas to reducethe rateof declinein the first25 years of the marriage. This resultindicatesthat the presenceof childrenaccountedfor but some of the declinein maritalhappinessduringthe first25 yearsof marriage did not accountfor the moregeneral declineoverthe courseof the entiremarriage. For example,an adult child departingfrom the household at 25 years'duration trend would increase marital happiness .39 points.But after7 years,the general by towardlowermaritalhappinesswould eliminatethe gain in happinessassociated with the departure the adultchild. of The sampleanalyzedin Table3 includedmarriages that dissolvedduringthe we courseof the panel.In thesemarriages, wouldexpectto finda declinein marital happiness as the marriage approaches its end (Johnson & Booth 1998). Consequently,these marriagescould account for the observed decline with

1328 / Social Forces 79:4, June 2001 TABLE3: Unstandardized Coefficients for Fixed-Effects Regression of Marital Happiness on Marital Duration in Pooled Time-Series Analysis of Five-WavePanel Data
MaritalHappiness Independent Viriables Maritalduration Maritalduration2 Marital duration3 Income (in thousands) Income-missingindicator Homeownership (0 = rent) Retirement (1 = husbandretired) Number of children in household Infants Preschoolers School-age Teenagers Adultchildren Constant R2
** p < .01

Model 1

Model 2

Model 3

Model 4

Model 5

-.0760*** -.1264*** -.2845*** -.2878*** -.2415*** .0019*** .0088*** .0089*** .0068*** -.0001*** -.0001*** -.00008** .0017 .0303 .0829 -.1824 .0020 .0013 .1118 -.1820

-.1793 -.2624** -.1870 -.2562*** -.3771*** 29.581 .0275 29.425 .0335 30.706 .0386 30.571 .0388 30.688 .0450

(N = 1,530individuals,5,932 records)
*** p < .00 1

duration. It is possible that the association between marital happiness and marital duration looks somewhat different if we consider only marriages that remain continuously intact. To test for this possibility,we repeated the fixed-effects pooled

time-series modelsincluding regression onlythosepersonswho werecontinuously Thisprocedure to duration the study. of married the samespouseduringthe 17-year reduced sampleto 736individuals 3,680records. the and Theseresults presented are in Table4. The patternof findingsfor continuouslymarriedpersonswas similarto that that observedfor the largersamplethat includedmarriages dissolved.Compared with the models in Table3, the models in Table4 explainedslightlyless of the variancein maritalhappiness,and the significancelevels were generallylower (whichpartlyreflectsthe smallersample).The majordifferenceis that children appearedto have a strongereffect, with four of the five child variablesbeing were includedin the equation, statistically significant.When the child variables was the relationship betweendurationandmarital happiness no longercurvilinear

MaritalHappiness and MaritalDuration / 1329

FIGURE MaritalHappinessby MaritalDurationfromthe Fixed-Effects 2: Models

31

30

No Controls(Model3)
-

29-

All Controls (Model 5)

28

27

26 -

25 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

MaritalDuration in Years

We but retained significant a lineartrend. concludethatthe general negative finding that maritalhappinessdeclinescontinuouslywith maritaldurationis truefor the set of marriages which a divorcein the futureis unlikely. for We next examinedthe datato see whetherthe patternof declinevariedwith gender or race. We computed two multiplicative terms, one to test for the duration gender(husbands wives)andthe other vs. and interaction between marital to test for the interactionbetween maritaldurationand race (blackversusnot to models.Neitherterm black).Thesetermswereaddedseparately the fixed-effects was statistically significant,suggestingthat the decline in maritalhappinesswas similarfor husbandsand wives and for blacksand nonblacks. Wethenplottedmarital scoresoverthe 17yearsof the panelfor seven happiness Eachcohortexceptthe last cohortsdefinedby the yearof the marriage. marriage encompasseda five-yearrange, startingwith the most recent cohort- those marriedbetween 1976and 1980- and endingwith those marriedbefore 1951. We confinedthe samplefor this analysisto personscontinuouslymarriedto the We samepartner duringthe studyandwith completedatafor allfivewaves. plotted each marriage cohortwith a separateLowesscurveand reportthese in Figure3. The curve for each cohort except the last extendsthrough22 yearsof marriage (fiveyearsforthe rangeof the groupplus 17yearsfor the lengthof the study),and

1330 / Social Forces 79:4, June 2001

TABLE4: Unstandardized Coefficients for Fixed-Effects Regression of Marital Happiness on Marital Duration: Continuously Married Persons Only
MaritalHappiness Model 2 Model 3 Model 4

IndependentVariables Maritalduration Marital durationsquared Maritaldurationcubed Income (in thousands) Income-missingindicator Homeownership (0 rent) Retirement (1 = husbandretired) Number of children in household Infants Preschoolers School-age Teenagers Adultchildren Constant R2

Model 1

Model 5

-.0578*** -.1240*** -.1994*** -.2038*** -.1236** .0057** .0021 .0016*** .0056** -.000061* -.00006* -.00002 .0017 .5521 .0730 -.2400 .0022 .5921 .1123 -.2071

-.1474 -.2551* -.3447** -.2930*** -.3929*** 29.688 .0219 30.220 .0271 30.530 .0287 30.403 .0298 30.403 .0385

N = 736 individuals,3,680 records

*

p <.05

**

p <.01

*** p <.001

each line begins at 1980.The oldest cohort extendsover a longerperiod of time from 30 to 38 years'durationin becauseits rangeis larger(it includesmarriages by 1980).Eachpersonin the samplewas represented five datapoints in the figure were 114, (one for eachwave).The numberof personsin eachcohortrespectively
165, 118, 99, 113, 73, and 24.

in Thepatterns observed Figure3 confirmsome of the findingsfromthe fixedeffects analysisand provide additionalinsights. First, there is little consistent evidenceof a changein maritalhappinessin the form of a U-shapedcurve.Only two of the cohorts(1961-65and 1971-75)showedan upturnin the latestduration observed,and these changeswere small. The other cohorts followed a general withsharpdeclines of of pattern decline.Second,therewasevidence a periodeffect, in happinessduringthe 1980sand only modest declinesin the 1990s.Fiveof the sevencohortsshoweddeclinesin the earlyto mid-1980s,withthe largest occurring in the 1976-80,1966-70,and 1950or earliercohorts.Third,therewas evidenceof a cohort effect. With a few exceptions, in the durations in which the curves

MaritalHappiness and MaritalDuration / 1331

FIGURE MaritalHappinessby MaritalDurationfor SevenMaritalCohorts 3:

34-

1 976-80 32 uz /

1 971-75
1

1 956-60 966-70 | 195 1-55 50 or earlier

a)
CLl CL

ci

28

26 0 20 Marital Duration 40 in Years 60

the marital scores.A overlapped, morerecentcohortshadloweraverage happiness notableexceptionwas in the oldest maritalcohort,which startedwell abovethe other cohortsbut by the end of the observationperiod was well below the two of adjacentcohorts.We temperany substantiveinterpretation this older cohort becauseof the relatively smallsamplesize (24) in this group. To evaluatewhetherthe generaldeclineobservedin the fixed-effects analysis shown in Figure2 reflectedthe presenceof a period declinein the earlyto mid1980s(rather than a generaldevelopmental processextendinginto the lateryears of marriage),we repeatedthe pooled time-seriesanalysisreportedin Table3, confiningthe analysisto the 1988, 1992, and 1997 waves of data. This analysis excludedthe two periods (1980 and 1983) that showed the greatestdecline in maritalhappinessscores.The samplesize for this analysiswas reducedbecause could be retained. Another only personswith two or more wavesof observations limitationwas that persons with marriagesof less than 8 years'durationwere represented who remarried werein the studylong and only by those respondents in of enoughto reporton the marital happiness the new marriage two of the three waves.Thereplication the fixed-effect of modelsforthisgroupis reported regression in Table5. The resultsfrom this truncatedsamplewere similarto those basedon all five wavesof the panel.The explainedvariancewas substantially lower,reflectingthe loss of data in 1980 and 1983, when much of the decline in maritalhappiness

1332 / Social Forces 79:4, June 2001

TABLE5: Fixed-Effects Models of Marital Happiness Including Data from the Three Waves from 1988 to 1997 Only Marital Happiness IndependentViriables
Maritalduration

Model1
-.0184

Model2
-.1026**

Model3
-.3116**

Model4
-.3065**

Model5
-.2718**

Marital duration2 Marital duration3 Income(in $1,000s) Income-missing indicator Homeownership (0 = rent) Retirement (1 = husband retired) of Number children inhousehold Infants Preschoolers School-age Teenagers Adult children Constant
R2
* p <.05

.0017*

.0115** .0110** .0086* -.0001 -.0001* -.0001 .0001 .6367 .3527 -.6007* .0001 .6821 .3882 -.5596

-.3532 -.4118* -.5313* -.2849* -.4520** 28.471

.0010

29.313
.0042

30.469
.0083

29.687
.0131

30.216
.0232

(N = 1,028 individuals, 2,834records)

** p <.01

occurred.The curves reflecting these equations are plotted in Figure 4. (We plotted models 3 and 5 only.) The results show a substantial decline until around 20 years of marriage followed by a flat association in later durations. The U-shaped curve was not evident either before or aftercontrols were introduced. The range of change in maritalhappiness was reduced in this analysis,however,compared with the range estimated in the models that included the 1980 and 1983 waves of data (compare Figure 4 with Figure 2). This result suggests that the continued decline in marital happiness at longer durations observed in the full sample may reflecta period effect, that is, declines in the 1980s that did not persist into the 1990s.

Discussion
The assumption that marital happiness declines during the earlyyears of marriage, stabilizes during the middle years, and then increases again in the later years is widely accepted among family scholars and is reported in many textbooks. Support

MaritalHappiness and MaritalDuration / 1333

FIGURE MaritalHappinessby MaritalDuration(1988-97wavesonly) 4:

31

30

No controls
\^

X
a) 29

- - -

All Controls

.5_
L

27

26

25 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Marital Durationin Years

for this model,however, largely is basedon cross-sectional studies.Manyof these studiesarelimitedfurtherby relianceon small,regional,nonprobability samples from specificdemographic groups.In contrast,our resultsarebased on a large, to our national,17-year panelstudy.Contrary previousresearch, findingsdo not overthe life course.Althoughthe supporta U-shapedpatternof marital happiness U-shaped associationwas replicatedin the analysisof cross-sectionaldata, no evidence for such an association appeared in the panel data. Instead, our longitudinal analysis suggeststhatmaritalhappinesseitherdeclinescontinuously aftera long periodof dedine (Figure Wefindlittleevidence (Figure or flattens 2) 4). that happinessincreasesin the lateryearsof marriage. appears,therefore,that It the U-shapedpatternis largelyan artifact using cross-sectional of data. A pattern of gradualdecline in maritalhappiness clasheswith the central our predictionof the familyrole and structure perspective. Nevertheless, analysis those involvingchangesin indicatesthat certainlife-coursetransitions, primarily the number of childrenat various ages, are associatedwith changesin marital happiness.Consistentwith a largenumberof previousstudies,our resultsshow with that the presenceof children- regardless age- is associatednegatively of

1334 / Social Forces 79:4, June 2001 maritalhappiness(Belsky,Spanier& Rovine 1983;Houseknecht1979;Kurdek 1998;Leonard Roberts1998;McLanahan Adams1989;Menaghan & & 1983;Nock 1979;Renne 1970). Many scholarshave suggestedthat the departureof older childrenfrom the parentalnest tends to increasemaritalhappiness- a finding in demonstrated several short-term longitudinal studies(Menaghan 1983; White& Edwards1990). The resultsin Tables3-5 suggestthat a reductionin the rate of decline in maritalhappinessmay indeed occur when older childrenleave the parental nest. This improvement could be due to a reduction in parenting responsibilities, increasein privacy, more opportunitiesfor sharedleisure an or activities betweenspouses.Nevertheless, familylife cyclestagesdo not accountfor the overallpatternof changein maritalhappiness, becausean independenteffect of maritaldurationremainswhen changesassociated with the familylife cycleare in controlled. Moreimportant, resultssuggestthatanyimprovements marital our with departures childrenfromthe home (as suggested of happinessassociated by at the familyroleand structure are perspective) temporary best andthattheyslow down, ratherthan halt,the generaldeclinein happiness. The relativelyrapid decline in maritalhappinessduring the earlyyears of marriage,shown in Figures 2 and 3, is consistent with social-psychological the of disenchantment. firstyears The perspectives emphasizing process relationship of of marriage difficultfor manycouples,as theynegotiatethe responsibilities are marriedlife and learnto dealwith the conflictthat inevitablyaccompanies longterm relationships. individuals with high (and perhapsunrealistic) Furthermore, expectationsabout their partnersand about marriagein general are likely to as experiencedisappointment they encounterthe realitiesof marriedlife (Booth 1999;Glenn 1996;Huston& Houts 1998). Pineo's (1961) notion that married become less compatibleover time, due to randomchangesin partners gradually also personalcharacteristics, is relevant.Accordingto exchangetheory,marital are that relationships basedon the valuedcharacteristics eachpartner bringsto the If marriage. these characteristics changeover time, then equity in the exchange in is relationship disrupted, resulting a dedine in marital happiness. Finally, simple habituation the partneralso may contributeto the disenchantment to process. can Althoughsocial-psychological individualistic and perspectives accountfor in declinesin happinessduringthe earlyyearsof marriage, they areless successful explaining declines during the later years of marriage.It seems unlikely that or continuefor periodsrangingup processessuch as disillusionment habituation to fifty years.It is probablethat random changesin personalcharacteristics (as describedby Pineo 1961) continue throughoutthe life course.But aftera time, changes in personal characteristicswould not necessarilymake couples less compatible.Indeed,changesin attitudesand interestsin laterlife might resultin couplesgrowingclosertogether,for example,when couplesdiscovernew leisure activities that are mutually enjoyable. Although it is possible that intrinsic interactional processesaccountfor declinesin maritalhappinessover extremely

MaritalHappiness and MaritalDuration / 1335

long timeperiods,most researchers workingfromsocial-psychological perspectives havenot extendedtheirpredictions beyondthe earlyyearsof marriage. It is possiblethatsome of the long-termdeclinein maritalhappiness observed in our studywas due to a periodeffect.This effectappeared takethe form of a to declineduringthe 1980swhichleveledoff duringthe 1990s.A numberof changes in U.S. society have made marriagea more difficult arrangementsince 1980, includinggrowingeconomicinequality, increased work-family conflictassociated with the movementof wives into the paid laborforce,widespread disagreements aboutappropriate genderroleswithinmarriage, the riseof moreindividualistic and attitudestoward marriageand family life. Indeed, some supporting evidence suggeststhat marital quality declined in recent decades. Glenn (1991), using mergeddatafromthe General SocialSurvey, reported gradual a declinefrom 1973 to 1988in the percentage peoplewho reportedthattheirmarriages of were"very in and happy-" Similarly, Rogers Amato(1997)compared marriages two generations of respondents.Althoughidenticalin terms of age at the time of datacollection andduration marriage, of membersof the morerecentcohortreported marital less interaction,more maritalconflict,and more problemsin theirmarriages. Given in thesefindings,it is possiblethatthe declinein maritalhappiness our datais due to a mixture of developmentalprocessesintrinsicto marriageand shifts in the largersocial structureand culture that introduced new sources of stress into marriages duringthe 1980s. of Regardless the explanationfor the long-termdeclinein maritalhappiness, in our results demonstrate the U-shapedpattern that observed most cross-sectional studiesis artifactual. U-shapedassociationapparentin cross-sectional data The could be due to the gradualdeparture from the marriedpopulationof unhappy in couples through divorce,resultingin an "increase" mean happinessamong But couplesin long-termmarriages. this explanationis unlikely, giventhat most divorces occurearlyin marriage the observed in happiness and rise doesnot appear until aftertwentyyearsof marriedlife. We believe that the cohort explanation advanced Glenn(1998) is a more likelycontender. Glenn's by analysisspecifically ruledout the possibilitythat attritionthroughdivorceresultedin compositional differences across his that cohorts. Instead, analysis suggested the apparent U-shaped association between marital duration and marital happiness is due to older marriagecohorts experiencinghigherlevels of maritalhappinessthan younger cohorts.Theseoldercohorts- married a timewhenpeopleheldmore at marriage was pragmatic views aboutmarriage, supportfor marriage stronger, couples and - mayhavestrengths that weremorecommittedto the norm of lifelongmarriage allowthem to maintainhigh levelsof maritalhappinessover the long haul. Turningto a differentissue, readersmay have concernsabout the small Rsquaredvalues in our analysis.Table3 indicatesthat maritaldurationaccounts for only about 4% of the variancein maritalhappiness- a finding that some observersmay view as statistically significantbut substantively unimportant.A

1336 / Social Forces 79:4, June 2001 differentperspective, however,is obtainedif one considersthe gap betweenthe highestlevelof marital happiness the beginningof the marriage) the lowest (at and levelof maritalhappiness(afterfiftyyearsof marriage). Thisgaprepresents more than four points on the maritalhappiness scale, or an effect size of over one standard deviation.By almostany standard, difference this magnitudecan be a of definedas a largeeffect (Cohen 1988).Althoughhappinesschangesslowly,small changesadd up to largedifferences acrosslong periodsof time. In conclusion,our resultscastseriousdoubton the widelyacceptedU-shaped associationbetweenmaritaldurationand maritalhappiness.Our studysuggests that maritalhappinessdoes not increasein the lateryearsof marriage. Afteran initialdecline,maritalhappinesseithercontinuesto decline(Figure2) or remains flat(Figure Thisconclusionmayseempessimistic. it is worthremembering But 4). thatthesepatterns represent shiftsin centraltendency. allmarriedindividuals Not a research experience patternof continuousdecline.A goalfor futurelongitudinal is to identifysubgroupsof individualswho experiencedifferenttrajectories of maritalhappiness such as a declinein happinessfollowedby an improvement, or continuoushigh levels of happiness- and the factorsthat distinguishthese individuals from those who followthe dominanttrajectory decline. of

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