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Residual Life Predictions From Vibration-Based Degradation Signals: A Neural Network Approach
Nagi Gebraeel, Mark Lawley, Member, IEEE, R. Liu, and Vijay Parmeshwaran
AbstractMaintenance of mechanical and rotational equipment often includes bearing inspection and/or replacement. Thus, it is important to identify current as well as future conditions of bearings to avoid unexpected failure. Most published research in this area is focused on diagnosing bearing faults. In contrast, this paper develops neural-network-based models for predicting bearing failures. An experimental setup is developed to perform accelerated bearing tests where vibration information is collected from a number of bearings that are run until failure. This information is then used to train neural network models on predicting bearing operating times. Vibration data from a set of validation bearings are then applied to these network models. Resulting predictions are then used to estimate the bearing failure time. These predictions are then compared with the actual lives of the validation bearings and errors are computed to evaluate the effectiveness of each model. For the best model, we find that 64% of predictions are within 10% of actual bearing life, while 92% of predictions are within 20% of the actual life. Index TermsBackpropagation, neural networks, prediction methods, vibrations.

I. INTRODUCTION

EARINGS are among the most precise components in mechanical assemblies and are manufactured to very tight tolerances. They are normally found in most rotational equipment. The condition and health of bearings play an important role in the functionality and performance of these equipment. This work focuses on using vibration analysis to monitor the condition of rolling element bearings and to predict bearing residual life in real time. The significance of using vibration analysis lies in the degradation process of the bearing. Bearing fatigue normally begins with subsurface cracks initiating within the raceway material. During service, cracks propagate and eventually reach the surface of the race dislodging a piece of metal from the surface. This results in what is known as a spall and in many applications is defined as the onset of failure. Rolling elements (balls or rollers) rotate over the race causing repetitive impacts each time they pass over the spall. Consequently, a distinctive frequency known as the defective frequency is excited. The frequency is a function of the number of balls, the rotational speed, geometry of the bearing, and types of defects and their location. Thus, vibration analysis becomes the most suitable condition monitoring technique for investigating the evolution of these defective frequencies over time once a spall has occurred.
Manuscript received May 9, 2002; revised November 18, 2003. Abstract published on the Internet January 14, 2004. The authors are with the School of Industrial Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907-1287 USA (e-mail: gebraeel@ecn.purdue.edu). Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/TIE.2004.824875

Most of the research in this field has been aimed at categorizing the kinds of bearing defects using statistical techniques, artificial intelligence, or complex mathematical models. These approaches typically address the problem from a diagnostic perspective. Approaches that focus on prognosis evaluate the future health condition of the bearing. However, most of these techniques do not predict the actual bearing failure time. In this paper, we develop an experimental setup to perform accelerated fatigue testing on rolling contact thrust bearings. Initially good bearings are run until failure while vibration spectra are continuously acquired and used to build a database of degradation signals. The objective is to model these signals using artificial neural networks to estimate failure times of a partially degrading bearing in order to make better decisions regarding scheduling of maintenance activities and replacement strategies. The following section presents a survey of bearing condition monitoring literature and relevant research that pertains to our work. Sections III and IV describe the experimental setup and development of the degradation signals using vibration analysis. Section V develops the different kinds of neural network approaches used to accurately predict bearing failure time. Sections VI and VII present the single bearing and clustered bearing neural network models used to predict failure time. Finally, a comparison between the results is presented. II. LITERATURE REVIEW Condition-based/predictive maintenance is most useful in predicting equipment failure and avoiding unnecessary maintenance activities. Condition monitoring is an inherent component of condition-based maintenance. Bearing condition monitoring has received a great deal of attention from researchers. Bearing condition monitoring using vibration signals is the commonly used method for assessing the condition of a bearing. There are many techniques used in analyzing vibration signals from bearings such as time and frequency domain [2], [3] and the envelope detection [6]. Bearing condition monitoring literature can be divided into two classes. The first class of research centers on bearing life prediction models. Some of these models are based on crack initiation models, and crack propagation models, namely, Paris Law [12], [14]. Researchers have also developed physical models for estimating bearing remaining life. In [15] the authors develop a physical model to predict the remaining life of bearings by simplifying the bearing system into a single-degree-of-freedom (DOF) vibration system. In [18] the authors investigate the

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defect detection of rolling element bearings utilizing the high-frequency resonance technique. In [20] the authors claim that damaged bearings cause a periodic pulse train of equal frequency spacing distribution (EFSD). The second class deals with classification of bearing condition and fault diagnosis using fuzzy logic concepts [13], and neural networks approaches [4], [17], [23]. Hybrid approaches that combine neural networks and fuzzy logic are also used for monitoring and diagnostic purposes [11]. Statistical approaches have also been used to model the effect of bearing defects on trends of certain statistical parameters [9], [22], such as using the rms, crest factor, kurtosis, etc. However, in most of these approaches, defects are artificially introduced on the surface of bearing raceways. Furthermore, little research has focused on using neural networks to predict bearing life. The most prominent is [17]. The authors focus on tracing the bearing health condition using the rms value of the vibration and the kurtosis factor. The paper models overall bearing vibration as a time series. Neural network models are used to predict the level of bearing health condition. However, the work does not consider the tremendous variation in bearing health condition associated with the random nature of bearing failure (among several identical bearings). This research differs from previous work in that: 1) it uses a database of many vibration based sensory traces to develop degradation signals that capture the physical bearing deterioration; 2) it develops several neural network models for estimating bearing failure time at any point during a bearings service life; and 3) estimates of the predicted failure times are updated using real-time sensory information. III. EXPERIMENTAL SETUP AND DEGRADATION MODELING In order to account for the variation in bearing life, it was necessary to investigate the fatigue process for a sample of identical bearings. A key step was to design and build an experimental setup capable of performing accelerated testing on rolling element thrust bearings. The setup was designed to ensure that bearing fatigue was not affected by any installation, lubrication, or unbalance problems. A set of identical thrust bearings was run at a constant rotational speed (2000 r/min) and a load of 200 lbs in an oil bath to provide continuous lubrication. An accelerometer, used to acquire the vibration signals, was attached to the setup and connected to a vibration meter that measured the rms vibration level. We choose thrust bearings because they are easily disassembled, thus, facilitate inspection. According to the manufacturers catalog, the bearing rotational speed limit was 3200 r/min. The static load rating was 470 lbs and the dynamic load rating was 365 lbs. These ratings are generally selected on the basis of the L life rating [14], which corresponds to 90% reliability. Since, bearing degradation is a time consuming process, investigating the natural failure of a sample of bearings (35 bearings in this research) presents a serious challenge. To overcome this, and experimental setup is designed to overload the bearing beyond its designated manufacturers rating resulting in increased contact stress between the rolling element and the surface of the raceway.

Fig. 1. Evolution of the vibration spectrum of a degrading bearing.

IV. VIBRATION ANALYSIS AND DEGRADATION SIGNALS As a bearing defect evolves it excites the defective frequency associated with the type of defect [1]. For the thrust ball bearings used in this research, the defective frequency is approximately 92 Hz. Bearing failure begins in the raceway where a spall develops on the surface, thus exciting the fundamental defective frequency and its harmonics (multiple integers of the defective frequency). The amplitude of the defect frequency is typically an indication of defect severity. The presence of the harmonics of the defective frequency is also another indication of degradation and spall formation [1]. Fig. 1 presents a plot of different vibration spectra for a bearing at different stages of its life. Notice that the amplitude of the defective frequency ( 92 Hz) increases with time ( axis) until the bearing failure at 100%. The vibration data are used to design a suitable signal that captures the evolution of the bearings degradation. This signal can be used to predict the bearings residual life. A good degradation signal must capture the physical transitions that the bearing undergoes during different stages of its life. Second, it must possess a trend that reflects the deteriorating condition of the bearing. Third, the signal should possess a low signal-to-noise ratio and must be easy to compute since it is frequently updated in real time. Finally, it must be possible to define a reasonable failure threshold, a signal amplitude that indicates failure. The first degradation signal we considered focused on the evolution of the rms vibration level over time (Fig. 2). By carefully analyzing the physical condition of the bearing, we observed that increase in the signal level is associated with spall propagation along the surface of the raceway. This conforms to the findings of [17]. The signal computes the rms vibration across the entire spectrum of frequencies associated with the bearing and other components of the setup device. However, this characteristic renders this degradation signal ineffective in isolating degradation of the bearing from the other components. To overcome this problem, it was necessary to isolate the frequencies associated with bearing defects and develop a degradation signal based on these frequencies. In this work, we test 35 bearings and develop a database of sorted amplitudes of bearing defective frequency and its first

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Fig. 2. Evolution of the average amplitude of the defective frequency and its first six harmonics.

six harmonics (harmonics are multiple integers of the defective frequency) and their evolution over time (Fig. 2). We choose the first six harmonics and compute the average of the sorted sequences of amplitudes. We then monitor the evolution of the average amplitude over time. We observe two distinct regions in our degradation signal, a flat region (signal amplitude of 0.002 V ) representing normal (defect-free) bearing operation, and a region characterized by a fluctuating signal with an increasing trend. The latter is associated with spall initiation and propagation along the surface of the raceway and extends until bearing failure. The bearing is considered failed when the degradation signal reaches our failure threshold of at [5], [7]. Furthermore, we observe that the bearing 0.025 V degradation signals possess an inherent exponential growth. Indeed, the exponential model is among the most commonly used models for bearing life [17]. Consequently, each bearings degradation signal is fitted with the best exponential fit of the and used to derive the exponential parameters, form and . (Note that these parameters will be used later in computing predicted bearing failure time). We define a bearings defect time as the time associated with the abrupt increase in amplitude beyond the initial amplitude level corresponding to normal bearing operation (0.002 V ), which characterizes the onset of a defect on the bearings raceway. Further, we define a bearings failure time as the time at which the amplitude of the degradation signal reaches 0.025 V . All this information is integrated into a degradation database. A. Degradation Modeling Using Neural Nets Neural networks are data processing systems consisting of a number of interconnected processing elements called neurons [23]. The neurons are usually organized in a sequence of layers, an input layer, a set of intermediate layers, and an output layer. During training, the network weights are adjusted depending on the type of learning process. Neural networks undergo two types of learning processes, supervised and unsupervised learning. Unsupervised learning is typically used in applications that require classification of bearing defects [4], [8], [21]. In this work, we use a set of feedforward backpropagation networks (Fig. 3) that undergo supervised learning to identify the current operating time of an operating bearing. We develop two classes of neural network models, single-bearing models and clustered-bearing models. Both classes of models use

Fig. 3. Illustration of the single-bearing neural network model.

degradation information associated with the defective phase of bearing degradation. In first class, a single bearing is used to train a single backpropagation neural network. In the second class, the bearings are classified in groups (clusters) based on similarity in their failure and defect times. Each net is then trained using degradation information associated with bearings in the cluster. V. SINGLE-BEARING NEURAL NETWORK MODELS The degradation database is divided into two parts, a training and a validation set . Bearings 125 constitute the set training bearings while bearings 2635 are designated as such that validation bearings. For the th bearing, (where in this class of models), we train a feedforward backpropagation network; call it FN (a single network for each of the 25 bearings in the training as the time instant at set). We define a sampling epoch which a data acquisition is performed. A seven-element vector representing the seven amplitudes of the defective frequency and its first six harmonics (sorted at the th sampling epoch, in ascending order) for bearing serves as the training input to FN . Let be the total number from the start of the test of sampling epochs for bearing . In other words, has a total until failure, thus, readings in its degradation signal and sets of sorted of input vectors. The network output is a single-element vector , comof s operating time at the th sampling epoch, puted by network FN . During training, we used the resilient backpropagation training algorithm. Furthermore, we used an early stopping technique to ensure network generalization. Each FN is associated with a set of experimental parameters derived from the database: 1) the exponential parameters and , associated with bearing and 2) s failure time, . Thus, there are three vectors associated with the 25 FNs. The first two vectors are those of the exponential parameters for 25 training bearings, and . The third vector is the failure

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times, , for the 25 bearings in the training set. , Consider a partially degrading bearing, for example, such that (where ), which has been operating in the field. Assume that the operating time of this bearing is known. To compute the failure time of this bearing at any point during its operation, we input the set of sorted ampli, to each of the trained FNs. Each tudes at some time , for the input sequence of , FN outputs an operating time . The next step in computing the predicted failure time is to use this set of outputs to derive a set of weights. A. Weight Calculation Weights are calculated based on the error values between the predicted operating time of FN and the actual operating time at the point of preof the bearing. Let the operating time of and the output of FN be . The diction be given by in FN s prediction associated with is: squared error . Thus, at the th prediction point, we compute associated with the 25 FNs. an error vector be defined by (1) To calculate the weights, let
Fig. 4. Prediction of a validation bearings failure time using exponential parameters.

The second weight application technique (WAEP) has two variand parameters are ants. In the first variant, WAEP, the used to solve for the projected failure time, using (6) (6) failure threshold of 0.025 V . where In other words, the exponential parameters computed at the th sampling epoch are used to project s signal into the future. The predicted failure time of is the given as the point where the projected trend line reaches the failure threshold . Fig. 4 illustrates how the partial degradation signal of a validation bearing is projected using the computed exponential parameters to estimate the bearings failure time. The second variant uses sensory parameter updating (WAEP-PU) where the exponential parameters are updated and using current data acquisitions. The computed at the th sampling epoch are passed through an updating algorithm. The algorithm computes squared errors between of the actual degradation level at the th sampling epoch and: and and 2) the (1) the current exponential parameters preceding exponential parameters and (sampling epoch ). A pair of weights are derived using these errors and used to compute a weighted average of the s and s at the and represent the updated two epochs. The resulting parameter values based on the current sensory information that was acquired at the th epoch. Exponential Parameter Updating Algorithm Query: What are the updated values of and ? parameter at the input: epoch for bearing k, . parameter at the epoch for bearing k, . parameter calculated at epoch (n) for bearing k, . parameter calculated at epoch (n) . for bearing k, initialization: output: ,

(1)

We now define the weight associated with FN at the th samas ; see (2). Thus, we have a weight pling instance of such that small error values are vector associated with large weights. Note that all weights sum to unity

(2)

The weights are then applied according to two different techniques: 1) Weight Application to Failure Times (WAFT) and 2) Weight Application to Exponential Parameters (WAEP). In the first technique, WAFT, the predicted life is computed as a weighted average of the failure times associated with the 25 FNs (failure times of the training bearing); see (3) (3) In the second technique, WAEP, the weights are applied to the two vectors of the exponential parameters and . Thus, s exponential parameters, and computed at the th sampling instance are given by (4) and (5), respectively, (4) (5)

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TABLE I CLASSIFICATION OF PREDICTION ERRORS

Fig. 5. Results for single-bearing models.

function: DEG(n), //a function that returns the average amplitude of the defective frequency and samits first 6 harmonics at the pling epoch // begin

L benchmark. Table I summarizes the percentages of the prediction errors in each class. Almost 90% of the predictions made by Model III are within 20% error of the actual bearing failure time, with 66% of these predictions within 10%. Model I performs the weakest in this class of neural network models. In conclusion, the proposed models provide the capability of computing estimates of bearing failure times in real-time using sensory information. Results of Model III are superior compared to the currently used L formula used by many manufacturers. VI. CLUSTERED-BEARING NEURAL NETWORK MODELS In this class of models, the 25 degradation signals are grouped according to similarity in their defect times (time of defect initiation) and failure times. Grouping of the bearings is performed using the fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm. The algorithm clusters input vectors by searching for local minima of a generalized within group sum of squares errors functions (for details about the algorithm, the reader is referred to [23]). The defect and failure times of the bearings represent the input to this algorithm. Thus, bearings with similar defect and failure times are most likely clustered together while ones with significantly different times are grouped in different clusters. For the pur, where pose of this research, we define ten bearing clusters, . Each cluster consists of the degradation data of the constituent bearings. Investigating the effect of the number of clusters is an open research problem and is beyond the scope of this paper. Once the clusters are formed, the next step is to define the cluster parameters: 1) defect time; 2) failure time; and 3) exponential parameters. In clusters containing single bearings, the failure time, defect time, and exponential parameters of the cluster are equal to those of the constituent bearing. For clusters composed of several bearings, the defect and failure times are defined as the coordinates of the centroid of the cluster. The coordinates of the centroid are evaluated using the fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm. In the following section, we discuss how to calculate the exponential parameters of each cluster. A. Exponential Parameters for Bearing Clusters As mentioned earlier, for clusters composed of single bearings the exponential parameters of the cluster are equal to the exponential parameters associated with the bearings degradation signal. On the other hand, for clusters composed of several bearings, we use the Generalized Regression Neural Network to compute a single regression function for the degradation signals of the constituent bearings [19]. The first step is to assign and train a Generalized Regression Neural Network, GRNN , , to each cluster. A sequence of -element where vectors of operating times

return ( end B. Results

To measure the effectiveness of these models, we calculate errors between the predicted and the actual lives at different points along the validation bearings lifetimes. We consider the time period between the onset of the defect and the time of failure. This time period is divided into percentiles. We calculate errors between the actual and the predicted life at the 20th, 40th, 60th, 80th, and 90th percentiles. The error between the predicted life and the actual life is given by (7) (7) The error values are then grouped into classes. The first class represents errors less than 10%. The second class represents prediction errors that are greater than 10% but not greater than 20%. Finally, the third class represents errors that are greater than 20%. For benchmarking our approaches, we calculate an estimate of the failure time using the use the L life formula with an equivalent dynamic load of 195 lbs and rotational speed of 2200 r/min; L h. Fig. 5 presents a bar graph of the number of bearing predictions in each error class for each model and compares it to the

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TABLE II CLASSIFICATION OF PREDICTION ERRORS

which computes a weighted average of the cluster failure times, performed the worst. A similar result was observed in the class of single bearing models. In conclusion, the best estimate of bearing failure times are computed using a weighted average of the exponential parameters. VII. CONCLUSION This paper has addressed bearing prognosis with the aim of avoiding unexpected failure that causes loss of production time, increased maintenance costs, and leads to increased spare part inventory. We developed two classes of models, single-bearing and clustered-bearing neural network models. All the models relied on using a database of degradation signals to predict the failure time of a partially degraded bearing at any time during its service life. Models that used a weighted average of the exponential parameters coupled with the parameter updating algorithm to compute a bearing failure time prediction provided the best results. The results showed that 92% of the failure time predictions computed using validation bearings were within 20% of the actual bearing life. We plan on applying the similar approaches on different components to evaluate the possibility of generalizing the proposed approach.

Fig. 6.

Results for clustered-bearing models.

REFERENCES representing consecutive sampling epochs of serve as the training inputs to GRNN , while the outputs are composed s degradation signal amplitudes of -element vectors of corresponding the input is the operating time of the bearing at vectors. Note that the th sampling epoch and is the level of the degradation signal (average amplitude of the defective frequency and its at the th sampling epoch. Once first six harmonics) of training is complete, the regression function for each GRNN is as the extracted. We define the degradation signal of cluster regression function associated with GRNN . Each regression , function is fitted with an exponential model of the form and represent the exponential parameters of the where cluster. Next, we assign a feedforward backpropagation neural network, FNC , to each bearing cluster, as was the case in the single bearing neural network models. The neural network models are then developed in a similar fashion to those of the single-bearing models. The major difference between the two classes is that the number of neural networks is equal to the number of bearing clusters and not the number of individual bearings. B. Results We calculate prediction errors at the various life percentiles. The prediction errors at the different life percentiles are classified into three the error classes. Table II presents a summary of the percentage of prediction errors in each class corresponding to each model in this class. Fig. 6 presents a bar graph of the number of bearing predictions in each error class for each model and compares it to the L benchmark. The results show that 92% of the predictions made by Model VI fall within 20% error of the actual bearing failure time. On the other hand, Model IV,
[1] A.Alexej Barkov, Condition assessment and life prediction of rolling element bearingsPart 1, Sound Vib., vol. 29, no. 6, pp. 1017, 1995. [2] R. J. Alfredson and J. Mathew, Time domain methods for monitoring the condition of rolling element bearings, Mech. Eng. Trans.Inst. Eng. Aust., no. 2, pp. 102107, 1985. , Frquency domain methods for monitoring the condition of [3] rolling element bearings, Mech. Eng. Trans.Inst. Eng. Aust., no. 2, pp. 108112, 1985. [4] I. E. Alguindigue, A. Loskiewicz-Buczak, and R. E. Uhrig, Monitoring and diagnosis of rolling element bearings using artificial neural networks, IEEE Trans. Ind. Electron., vol. 40, pp. 209217, Apr. 1993. [5] M. P. Blake and W. S. Mitchel, Vibration and Acoustic Measurement Handbook. New York: Spartan, 1972, ch. 22. [6] P. F. J. Burgess, Antifriction bearing fault detection using envelope detection, Trans. Inst. Prof. Eng., New ZealandElect./Mech./Chem. Eng. Sec., vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 7782, 1998. [7] N. Gebraeel, M. Lawley, and R. Liu, Vibration-based condition monitoring of thrust bearings for maintenance management, in Proc. ANNIE 2002 Smart Engineering System Design: Neural Networks, Fuzzy Logic, Evolutionary Programming, Artificial Life and Data Mining. St. Louis, MO, 2002, pp. 543551. [8] S. D. Haddad, G. B. Chatterji, and T. Ogunfunmi, A ball bearing fault detector using neural network based vibration algorithms, in Proc. Artificial Neural Networks in Engineering, vol. 4, 1994, pp. 967972. [9] R. B. Heng and M. J. Nor, Statistical analysis of sound and vibration signals for monitoring rolling element bearing condition, Appl. Acoust., vol. 53, no. 1, pp. 211226, 1998. [10] M. R. Hoeprich, Rolling element bearing fatigue damage propagation, Trans. ASME, J. Tribol., vol. 114, pp. 328333, 1992. [11] H.-H.Hsin-Hao Huang and H. P.H. P. Ben Wang, Integrated monitoring and diagnostic system for roller bearings, Int. J. Adv. Manuf. Technol., vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 3746, 1996. [12] Y. Li, S. Billington, and C. Zhang, Dynamic prognostic prediction of defect propagation on rolling element bearings, Lubrication Eng., vol. 42, no. 2, pp. 385392, 1999. [13] T. I. Liu and J. H. Singonhalli, Detection of roller bearing defects using expert system and fuzzy logic, Mech. Syst. Signal Process., vol. 10, no. 5, pp. 595614, 1996. [14] A. Palmgren, Ball and Roller Bearing Engineering. Philadelphia, PA: Burbank, 1959. [15] J. Qiu, B. B. Seth, C. Zhang, and S. Y. Lian, Failure lifetime prognostic of bearing based on vibration response and damage mechanics, in Proc. 2000 Japan/USA Flexible Automation Conference, Ann Arbor, MI, July 2000, pp. 15.

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[16] H. A. Sherif, Determination of ball and roller compliances using a vibration measuring technique, Trans. ASME, J. Tribol., vol. 117, no. 3, pp. 553557, 1995. [17] Y. Shao and K. Nezu, Prognosis of remaining bearing life using neural networks, Proc. Inst. Mech. Eng., J. Syst. Control Eng., pt. 1, vol. 214, no. 3, pp. 217230, 2000. [18] J. Shiroishi, Y. Li, T. Kurfess, and S. Danyluk, Bearing condition diagnostics via vibration and acoustic emission measurements, Mech. Syst. Signal Process., vol. 11, no. 5, pp. 693705, 1997. [19] D. F. Specht, A general regression neural network, IEEE Trans. Neural Networks, vol. 2, pp. 568576, Nov. 1991. [20] Y. T. Su and Y. T. Sheen, Signature analysis of roller bearing vibrations: Lubrication effects, Proc. Inst. Mech. Eng., vol. 206, pp. 193202, 1992. [21] M. Subrahmanyam and C. Sujatha, Using neural networks for the diagnosis of localized defects in ball bearings, Tribol. Int., vol. 30, no. 10, pp. 739752, 1997. [22] N. Tandon, Comparison of some vibration parameters for the condition monitoring of rolling element bearings, Measurement, vol. 12, no. 3, pp. 285289, 1994. [23] L. H. Tsoukalas and R. E. Uhrig, Fuzzy and Neural Approaches in Engineering. New York: Wiley Interscience, 1997.

Mark Lawley (M01) received the Ph.D. degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. He is an Associate Professor of Industrial Engineering at Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN. He has held industrial positions with Westinghouse and Emerson Electric Company and served two years as an Assistant Professor of Industrial Engineering at the University of Alabama before joining Purdue. His research interests are in the modeling and analysis of resource allocation problems in complex systems. Dr. Lawley is a Registered Professional Engineer in the State of Alabama.

R. Liu is a Professor of Industrial Engineering at Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, with expertise in manufacturing engineering. His research interests include single-step superfinish hard-turning, manufacturing and its relationship to the reliability of the components and systems, precision manufacturing systems, and CIMS and Internet-based manufacturing. His teaching interests include engineering synthesis and innovation and strategic planning. Prof. Liu is a Fellow of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers.

Nagi Gebraeel received the M.S. degree in industrial engineering from Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, where he is currently working toward the Ph.D. degree in the School of Industrial Engineering. He served as a Graduate Assistant for the Technical Assistance Program and as an Instructor in the School of Industrial Engineering at Purdue University. His research interests lie in decision-support models for prognostic systems and replacement strategies.

Vijay Parmeshwaran received the B.E. degree in mechanical engineering from Anna University, Madras, India, and the M.S. degree in industrial engineering from Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, where he is currently working toward the Ph.D. degree in industrial engineering. His research interests lie in the area of network interdiction and assessment of network vulnerability with special emphasis on robust supply chain networks.