The Maryland-National Capital Park & Planning

Commission

Managing growth
in Montgomery County

Adequacy of transportation facilities

Economic vitality

September 13, 2003

 The Transportation Tests

• Policy Area Transportation Review.

• Area average roadway congestion cannot
exceed standard.
• Local Area Transportation Review.
• Tests congestion at nearby intersections.

• For both PATR and LATR, congestion

standard varies depending on transit
availability & usage.
 Policy Area Transportation Review
• Staging Ceilings: Calculation of the maximum
number of jobs and housing units the
transportation system can handle.
• Rural: no staging ceilings because growth
limited by zoning.
• Staging ceilings in one Policy
policy area cannot result inAreas
excessive congestion in another
policy area
• APF finding: 5-12 years.
 How much new development can
be approved?

STAGING CEILING

Capacity of Net Remaining

Programmed Capacity
Facilities
Policy
Approved Areas
Development
Capacity of
Existing
Facilities Existing
Development

Transportation Development
 What is TTLOS?
• Component of PATR: “Total Transportation
Level of Service”
• Formula for determining how much auto
congestion should be permitted in each policy
area.
• Inputs are “transit mode share” and “transit
accessibility.”
• Problems with concept surfaced during 2001
update; a major reason for AGP review.
 Development permitted under
current ceilings
Jobs Housing
Already Approved 77,292 25,987
Capacity New Approvals 32,052 31,568

Approvals (2002) 10,539 5,169

Completions (2002): 7,294 3,456

This chart does not include development activity in

Rockville or Gaithersburg
Policy areas in moratorium FY03
Housing

Jobs

In Moratorium
Not in Moratorium
Municipalities
 Approving development in
transportation moratorium areas
• Small Scale Development
• Affordable Housing
• Staging Ceiling Flexibility
• Developer Participation
• Development Districts
• Metro Station Areas
• Economic Development Projects
 Local Area Transportation
Review
• Objective: make sure development does
not overwhelm nearby intersections.
• Applied to all projects generating 50 or
more peak hour trips.
• If intersection fails the standard,
developer can make improvements,
mitigate trips, or – in limited cases –
make a payment to the County.
 Traffic congestion has gotten
worse
50%
Percent change, 1985-2000
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5% Jobs Pop VMT Roads
0%
 Comparing traffic congestion
measures
1.50 25%
Urbanized Congestion Transit Mode Share
1.45
2000 2000
1.40 20%
1.35
1.30 15%
1.25
Montgomery

Montgomery
Fairfax Co.
DC Region

Fairfax Co.
1.20 10%
1.15
1.10 5%
Co.

1.05

Co.
1.00 0%

Square Kilometers of Development 1973-85 1985-90 1990-96

Montgomery County 3.5 4.6 2.6
Fairfax County 5.7 10.0 4.5
 Roadway congestion

Severely congested
Congested
Approaching congested
 Cost of future infrastructure
• 2030 Forecast: 146,000 jobs and
78,000 housing units (31,200
students).
• Transportation: $5.9 billion
• About $26,000 per forecast job and
housing unit
 Transportation test concerns
• Using the right measures?
• Staging ceilings are based on “average
congestion.”
• AGP looks only at “peak periods.”
• Complex: Reliance on a complicated
transportation model.
• Good: technical and objective.
• Bad: only an expert can challenge findings.
 Transportation test goals
• More transparent and understandable
• Fewer subareas
• Strengthen connection to capital
programming
• Retain LATR
Economic vitality
 Economic vitality context
• The foundations of Montgomery County’s
economy are very strong.
• Direct federal government activity
• Attracts and supports highly educated
workforce
• Attracts and supports tech-oriented private
sector
• Many counties would envy Montgomery
County’s job growth, labor force, and
unemployment rate.
 County economy: 2003

• Local economy exhibits strengths in face of

national downturn
• Job growth: flat overall, tech sectors among
hardest hit
• Federal impact: procurement, leasing &
employment outlook still strong
• Office space market: short, mild recession
appears to be ending
 Annual job growth: 2,159 jobs
25,000
Second quarter figures (change from previous year)
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1991

1997

1998

1999
1992

1993

1994

2000
1995

1996

2001

2002
-5,000
-10,000
-15,000
Source: RESI compilation of DLLR data
-20,000
Between the second quarters of 2001 and 2002, Montgomery County added
2,159 jobs, growing 0.5 percent.
 Job growth: tech jobs
drop to 1997 levels
135
Source: RESI compilation of DLLR data (2002Q2)
130
125
Index: 1988Q1=100

120
115
Montgomery Co.
110
Maryland
105 United States
100
95
90
1992Q3

1994Q4

1997Q1

1999Q2

2001Q3
1988Q1
1988Q4
1989Q3
1990Q2
1991Q1
1991Q4

1993Q2
1994Q1

1995Q3
1996Q2

1997Q4
1998Q3

2000Q1
2000Q4

2002Q2
There are 71,400 high tech jobs in Montgomery County.
 Jobless rate is 2.6%
4.5%
June 1992: 3.9%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
Jan 1988: 2.6%
1.0%
July 2003: 2.6%
0.5%
Source: MD DLLR
0.0%

There are 13,630 unemployed persons in Montgomery County.

 Federal jobs expected to exceed
1994 levels by 2005
80,000
Workers
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000 Leased
30,000 Installation
20,000
10,000
0
94

96

97

99

00

01

02

03

05

10

15
19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
By 2015, jobs at installations are expected to grow by 38
Source: M-NCPPC analysis of percent above current levels. Jobs in leased space are expected
US government data to fluctuate between 22,300 and 25,500.
 Federal leasing reaches 6.7
million s.f.
8,000,000
Square feet
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
1984 1989 1994 1996 1997 1999 2000 2002 2003

Since 1994, GSA has leased between 6.0 and 6.7

Source: General Services
million square feet of commercial space in
Administration (GSA) Montgomery County
 Federal procurement reaches
record levels: $4.7 billion
5
$ billions
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
85

87

89

91

93

99

01
95
83

97
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

Source: General Services
Administration (GSA)
20
The regional leaders in federal procurement are
Washington DC and Fairfax County, VA, both with
more than double Montgomery County’s amount.
 Office market: long term trends
show construction cycles
Millions of square feet
5

Proposed
4 Under Const.
Existing
3

0
1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000
 Office market: Class A vacancy
rates have started to decline
Office vacancy rates
15%
C
10%
A
All
B
5%

0%
Mar-96 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03
 Montgomery fared better than
Fairfax and region
In March 2003: percent better or worse than March 2002
5%
Vacant space
0%
-5%
Occupied space
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
-35% Region Fairfax Montgomery

Montgomery County’s office market fared better than the rest of region
during the recent recession, as we had less vacant space and we had
positive net absorption of new space.
 Office market recovery
negative indicators
• Leasing of new buildings may leave
sublet space vacant.
• U.S. economy is in the doldrums,
undermining confidence.
• There are still 800,000 sq. ft. under
construction.
 Summary
• Transportation tests: Have moderated the pace
of growth and have required road improvements
to be built. But the current methods may be
more complicated than necessary.
• Congestion: Roads are congested and the cost of
new facilities is high.
• Economic vitality: County’s economic
foundations and prospects are strong. Office
market is healthier than region as a whole, but
has space for companies to expand.