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Definition OLS Estimates Goodness of fit Units of measurement and functional form Expected values and variances of the OLS model
( x x )( y y ) = (x x)
i i 2 i
0 = y 1 x
yi
u i = y i yi
yi
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salary = 0 + 1roe + u
s = 963 + 18.5701roe
If roe=0 then predicted salary is $963,000 If roe rises by 1 percentage point, roe=1 so salary=18.501, i.e. salary changes by $18,501
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wage = 0 + 1educ + u
1 measures change in hourly wage in $s when years of education increases by 1 year: 1>0?
w = 0.90 + 0.54educ
If educ=0 then predicted hourly wage is -$0.90, this has note an economical meaning If educ rises by 1 year, educ=1 so wage=0.54, i.e. wage rises by $0.54 an hour if educ rises by 4 years, educ=4 so wage=4*0.54, i.e. wage rises by $2.16 an hour
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voteA = 0 + 1shareA + u
If shareA=0 then predicted share of the vote for A is 26.81% If shareA rises by 1 percentage point, shareA=1 so voteA=0.464, i.e. share of vote for A rises by 0.464 % point
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Goodness of fit
SST = [ yi y ]2
i =1
n
total sample variation Sum Squared Total variation of fitted values Sum Squared Explained
n
SSE = [ yi y ]2
i =1
SSR = [ yi yi ]2 = ui2
i =1 i =1
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R2 : coefficient of determination
SST = SSE + SSR SSE SSR 1= + SST SST SSE SSR 2 = 1 R = SST SST
R2=0.0132: X explains only 1.3% of variation in Y R2=0.856: X explains 85.6% of the variation in Y 11
Changing units
E.g. change units from thousands of $ to hundreds of dollars, or from $ to OLS estimates change accordingly:
if units of dep var are multiplied or divided by a constant c, then so are 0 and 1 if units of indep var are multiplied or divided by a constant c, then so are 0 and 1
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log y = 1x
Interpretation of coefficients
Model
levellevel levellog loglevel log-log
Dep Var
y y log(y) log(y)
Indep Var
x log(x) x log(x)
Interpretation of 1
y=1x y=(1/100)%x %y=(1001)x %y=1%x
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bias can arise if functional form is not linear in its parameters, if sample is not random, or if there is no sample variation. Most importantly, if E(u|X) is not 0, e.g. omitted variables correlated with X
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