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Laila Utari Ratna Puspita Fakultas Teknik Mesin dan Dirgantara

1. The Science and Philosophy of Risk

Entropy is a measure of the disorder of a system

Entropy must always increase in the universe and in any hypothetical isolated system within it

To offset the effects of entropy, energy must be injected into any system. Without adding energy, the system becomes increasingly disordered

The Scientific Method


Methodology:

Observe a phenomenon Hypothesize an explanation for the phenomenon Predict some measurable consequences that your hypothesis would have if it turned out to be true Test the prediction experimentally

Modeling
The scientific method is a process by which we create representations or models of our world

2. Basic Concepts
Hazard
Hazard is a characteristic or group of characteristics that provides the potential for a loss, e.g. flammability and toxicity. A Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) study is a technique in which a team of system experts is guided through a formal process in which imaginative scenarios are developed using specific guided words and analyzed by the team.

We can change the risk without changing a hazard.

Risks Risk is most commonly defined as the probability of an event that causes a loss and the potential magnitude of that loss.

Risk

Probability of Failure (PoF)

Consequence of Failure (CoF)

Related risk terms include:

Acceptable risk

Tolerable risk

Risk Tolerance

Negligible risk

Risk is defined by answering these questions:

What can go wrong?


How likely it is?

What are the consequences?

Failure (What can go wrong)


Definitions Of Pipeline Failure: Unintentional release of pipeline contents

Loss of integrity
Failure to perform its intended function
Possible pipeline failure mechanisms:

Incorrect operations

Third party

Design

Corrosion

Frequency, Statistics, and Probability

Frequency usually refers to a count of past observations.

Statistics refers to the analyses of the past observations.

Probability is degree of belief, which normally utilizes statistics but rarely based entirely on them.

Failure Rates

A failure rate is simply a count of failures over time. It is usually first a frequency observations of how often the pipeline has failed over some previous period of time

Consequences are sometimes grouped into direct and indirect categories.:

Direct costs:

Property damages Damages to human health Environmental damages Loss of products Repair costs Cleanup and remediation costs

Indirect costs:

Litigation Contract violation Customer dissatisfaction Political reactions Loss of market share Government fines and penalties

Risk Assessment

Risk assessment is a measuring process. It must measure both the probability and the consequences of all of the potential events that comprise the hazard. Using the risk assessment, we can make decisions related to managing those risks.
Experts refers to people most knowledgeable in the subject matter. Theyre not restricted to a scientist or other technical person. The greatest expertise for a specific pipeline system probably lies with the workforce that has operated and maintained that system for many years. The experience and intuition of the entire workforce should be tapped as much as is practical when performing a risk assessment.

Experts

Risk Management
Risk management is a reaction to perceived risks. It is the set of actions adopted to control the risk. Many challenging questions are implied in risk management:
Where and when should resources be applied? How much urgency should be attached to any specific risk mitigation? Should only the worst segments be addressed first? Should resources be diverted from less risky segments in order to better mitigate risks in higher risk areas? How much will risk change if we do nothing differently?

The intention is not to make the risk disappear, but to minimize them at least to the extent that no unacceptable risks remain.

3. Uncertainty

Further adding to the uncertainty is the fact that the thing being measured is constantly changing. Managers must control the right risks with limited resources because there will always be limits on the amount of time, manpower, or money that can be applied to a risk situation. It is usually best to assume that

Uncertainty = Increased risks

4. Risk process-the general steps


Step 2 : data collection and preparation Step 5 : managing risks - analyzing data

Step 1 : risk modeling

Step 3 : segmentation

Step 4 : assessing risks

- calculating cumulative risks and trends

- creating an overall risk management strategy

- identifying mitigation projects

- performing what-ifs

5. Data collection
What defaults are to be used when no information is available? Will hard proof or documentation be a requirement in all cases? Or can the evaluator accept opinion data in some circumstances?

How often will the evaluations be repeated?

What manuals or procedures will be used?

Who will be performing the evaluations?

How will the values be obtained?


What will the data represent? The data are the sum of our knowledge about the pipeline section

Typical sources of variation in pipeline risk assessment include:


Differences in the pipeline section environment Differences in the pipeline section operation Differences in the amount of information available on the pipeline section Evaluator-to-evaluator variation in information gathering and interpretation Day-to-day variation in the way a single evaluator assign scores

What sources of variation exist?

There are several steps to reduce those variations:


Improved documentation and procedures Evaluator training Refinement of the assessment technique to remove more subjectivity Changes in the information-gathering activity Use of only one evaluator

Why are the data being collected?

The common link will be the desire to create a better understanding of the pipeline and its risks in order to make improvements in the risk picture.

The secondary reasons are:


Identify relative risks hot spots Ensure regulatory compliance Set insurance rates Define acceptable risk levels Prioritize maintenance spending Build a resource allocation model Assign dollar values to pipeline systems Track pipelining activities

5. Conceptualizing A Risk Assessment Approach

General public or special interest group Checklist for design Purpose The following is a partial list of considerations in the design of a risk assessment system: Audience Company-all employees Local, state, or federal regulators

Company-management only

Company-specific departments only

Risk identification Resource allocation Design or modify an operating disciplines Regulatory compliance for risk assessment Regulatory compliance for all required activities Regulatory compliance waivers Project approvals Preventive maintenance schedules Due diligence Liability reduction Risk communications

Uses

Users
Internal only Technical staff only Managers Planning department District-level supervisors Regulators Other oversight Public presentations

Resources
Data Software Hardware Staff Money Industry

Design

Scope Failure causes considered Consequences considered Facilities covered Scoring Direction of scale Point assignments Resolution issues Defaults Zone-of-influence distance Relative versus absolute Reporting

Formal vs. Informal Risk Management

Formal pipeline risk management is growing in popularity among pipeline operators and is increasingly mandated by government regulations. An informal approach to risk management is the product of expert engineering consensus built on solid experience. It is simple, easy to comprehend and to communicate.

Risk Assessment Building Blocks

Checklists Safety review Relative ranking Preliminary hazard analysis what-if analysis HAZOP study FMEA analysis Fault-tree analysis Event-tree analysis Cause-and-consequence analysis Human-error analysis

Fig.1.3 event-tree analysis

8. Choosing A Risk Assessment Issues

Several questions to the pipeline operator that may direct the choice of risk assessment technique: What data do you have? What is your confidence in the predictive value of the data? What resources are available in terms of money, person-hours, and time? What benefits do you expect to accrue in terms of cost savings, reduced regulatory burdens, improve public support, and operational efficiency?

Any complete risk assessment model should be able to pass the following four test:

The I didnt know that! test The why is that? test The point to a map test The what about__? test

9. Quality And Risk Management

Several definitions to define quality are:

Risk management can be thought of as a method to improve quality

Fitness-for-use

Consistency with specifications

Freedom from defects

Distinction between types of work performed in the name of the customer:

Value added work

Necessary work

Waste

These are work activities that directly add value to the product or service

These are work activities that are not value added, but are necessary in order to complete the value added work

Task that are done routinely, but really do not directly or indirectly support the customer needs, are considered to be waste

10. Reliability

Reliability is often defined as the probability that equipment, machinery, or systems will perform their required functions satisfactorily under specific conditions within a certain time period

Common reliability measurement and control efforts involve issues of:

Equipment performance, as measured by availability, uptime, MTTF, MTBF, and Weibull analysis

Reliability as a component of operation cost or ownership costs, sometimes measured by life-cycle cost

Reliability analysis technique applied to maintenance optimization, including Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM), Predictive Preventive Maintenance (PPM), and root cause analysis

THANK YOU

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