II.

RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS

Laila Utari Ratna Puspita Fakultas Teknik Mesin dan Dirgantara

I. BEGINNING RISK MANAGEMENT

STEP 1 : Acquire a risk assessment model

STEP 5 : Manage the risks

STEP 2 : Collect and prepare data

STEP 4 : Asses the risks

STEP 3 : Devise and implement a segmentation strategy

II. RISK ASSESSMENT MODELS

model?
A model is the set of rules by which we will predict the future performance of the pipeline from a risk perspective

purpose?
The goal of any risk assessment model is to quantify the risks, in either a relative or absolute sense

Risk Assessment Models

Three general approaches

Matrix models Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

Indexing models
Risk Assessment Models

Matrix Model

Risk Assessment Models

Probabilistic Model

Risk Assessment Models

Indexing models provides immediate answers is a low-cost analysis is comprehensive acts as a decision support tool for resource allocation modeling identifies and places values on risk mitigation opportunities

Risk Assessment Models

Choosing a risk assessment approach

When we need is to..
Obtain an inexpensive overall risk model, create a resource allocation model, model the interaction of many potential failure mechanisms, study or create an operating discipline Obtain an inexpensive overall risk model, create a resource allocation model, model the interaction of many potential failure mechanisms, study or create an operating discipline Better quantify a belief, create a simple decision support tool, combine several beliefs into a single solution, document choices in resource allocation

A technique to use may be..

Event trees, fault trees, FMEA (Failure Modes and Effect Analysis), PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment), HAZOP (Hazard and Operability)

Indexing models

Matrix models

Risk Assessment Models

Uncertainty
A risk model generally assumes that things are bad until the data shows otherwise

Uncertainty increases risk

Certain information (by inspection, surveys, etc.) decreases risk

Risk Assessment Models

Sectioning or Segmenting the Pipeline

Dynamic segmentation approach
(break point inserted wherever significant changes occur)

Manually establishing sections

(break point inserted based on the top items on the prioritized list of condition changes)

Fixed length approach

(e.g. per mile or between valve stations)

Risk Assessment Models

Pipeline sectioned based on population density and soil conditions

Risk Assessment Models

Manually establishing sections (Louisiana pipeline)

Insert a section break each time the population density along a 1-mile section changes >10% Insert a section break each time the soil corrosivity changes by 30%

Insert a section break each time the coating condition changes significantly

Insert a section break each time a difference in age of the pipeline is seen

Risk Assessment Models

Too many sections for 60-mile long pipeline

Eliminating the additional sectioning caused by the application of the fourth rule (43-6 = 37)
Eliminate sectioning caused by the third rule with help from corrosion engineers opinion (37-6 = 31)

31
Risk Assessment Models

III. DESIGNING A RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL

DATA

FRAMEWORK Designing A Risk Assessment Model

Data First or Framework First?

Designing A Risk Assessment Model

Risk Factors
Types of Information
Information that can routinely be used to update the risk assessment includes :
All survey result such as leak surveys, depth of cover, population density

Documentation of all repairs

Documentation of all excavations

Operational data including pressures and flow rates Results of integrity assessments Maintenance reports Updated consequence information Result of root cause analysis and incident investigations Availability and capabilities of new technologies

Designing A Risk Assessment Model

Attributes and Preventions

Attributes
Reflect the pipelines environment or characteristics that are difficult or impossible to change

Preventions
Action taken in response to that environment

Designing A Risk Assessment Model

Attributes

Designing A Risk Assessment Model

Preventions

Designing A Risk Assessment Model

Model scope and resolution

A Model that is built for parameters ranging from a 40-inch, 2000-psig propane pipeline to a 1-inch, 20-psig fuel oil pipeline will not be able to make many risk distinction between a 6-inch natural gas pipeline and an 8-inch natural gas pipeline.

Common risk variables that should have a range established as part of the model design include: Diameter range Pressure range Products to be included
Designing A Risk Assessment Model

Interview Data

Designing A Risk Assessment Model

Weightings
The weightings of the risk variables, that is, their maximum possible point values or adjustment factors, reflect the relative importance of that item.
Importance is based on the variables role in adding to or reducing risk

Designing A Risk Assessment Model

Risk Scoring
Direction of Point scale

Increasing point = Increasing Safety

Designing A Risk Assessment Model

Combining Variables

Option 1

Risk variable = (sum of risk increaser) (sum of risk reducers) Corrosion threat = (environment) [(coating) + (CP)] Corrosion threat = (24) (5 + 7) = 17

Option 2

Risk variable = (sum of risk increaser) + (sum of risk reducers) Corrosion threat = (environment) + [(coating) + (CP)] Corrosion threat = (24) + (-5 + -2) = 17

Option 3

Risk variable = (threat) x (sum of % threat reduction through mitigation) Corrosion threat = (environment) x [(coating) + (CP)] Corrosion threat = (24) x (70%) = 16.8

Designing A Risk Assessment Model

Direct evidence adjustments

Risk evaluation is done primarily through the use of variables that provide indirect evidence of failure potential. This includes knowledge of pipe characteristics, measurements environmental conditions, and results of surveys. If direct evidence appears to be in conflict with risk assessment results (based on indirect evidence), then one of three scenarios is true:
The risk assessment model is wrong; an important variable has been omitted or undervalued or some interaction of variables has not been properly modeled.

The data used in the risk assessment are wrong; actual conditions are not as thought

There actually is no conflict; the direct evidence is being interpreted incorrectly or it represents an unlikely, but statistically possible event that the risk assessment had discounted due to its very low probability

Designing A Risk Assessment Model

The recommended process incorporating direct evidence into a relative risk assessment is as follows:
Use all available leak history and ILI results---even when root cause investigations are not available-to help evaluate and score appropriate risk variables

Use new direct evidence to directly validate or adjust risk scores.

If disagreement is apparent-the direct evidence says something is actually good or bad while the risk model says the opposite-then perform an investigation

Designing A Risk Assessment Model

Visual Inspection: often assumed to reflect condition for some length of pipe beyond the portions actually viewed Root Cause Analysis : specialized type of incident investigation process that is designed to find the lowest level contributing causes to the incident
Designing A Risk Assessment Model

IV. LESSONS LEARNED IN ESTABLISHING A RISK ASSESSMENT PROGRAM

Work from general to specific
Study your results Think organic

Build the program as you build a new pipeline

Avoid complexity

Use computer wisely

Build the program as you would build a new pipeline

Conceptualization and scope creation phase Route selection / ROW selection Design

1
2 3 4 5

Material procurement
Construction

6
7

Commissioning
Project completion

THANK YOU